All posts by Cliff Daigle

I am a father, teacher, cuber and EDH fanatic. My joy is in Casual and Limited formats, though I dip a toe into Constructed when I find something fun to play. I play less than I want to and more than my schedule should really allow. I can easily be reached on Twitter @WordOfCommander. Try out my Busted Uncommons cube at http://www.cubetutor.com/viewcube/76330

Watching the Sideboards

By: Cliff Daigle

In Magic, the sideboard is a powerful tool. It allows for flexibility and power in different types of matchups. It also offers the unparalleled chance to turn a bulk rare into a $10 card.

Today, I want to go over some cards that are seeing some sideboard play in Modern and Legacy. These mostly aren’t four-of, so people are often willing to spend a little more for the foil, resulting in some surprising splits. There is a chance that if a card proves to be popular/effective in a sideboard strategy, that it may go even bigger.

I’m focusing on the foils today, but you’re free to think about the non-foils as well.

Two examples I want to mention:

Teferi’s Response ($1/$16)

This is an excellent example, as the foil has tripled up after some on-camera time at SCG Opens earlier this year. It’s played infrequently, but it’s such a blowout against Wasteland and Rishadan Port strategies. Even as a singleton in Legacy sideboards, it being a rare in Invasion (imagine getting this in your Grand Prix Sealed pool!) is enough to push the foil to these levels.

 

Smash to Smithereens ($3/$17)

This is the downside of speculating. We live in an era when reprints are becoming more and more common, and this card is in the midst of losing value since being announced in Modern Masters 2015. It was more than $5 in February, and the foil has slipped a couple of dollars as well. I’ll be interested to see where the foils end up, as Modern Masters is going to add a significant supply of shiny cards. This was a common in Shadowmoor, but is an amazing sideboard card in Burn strategies.

Now, let’s look at some cards that have potential to grow:

 

 

Feed the Clan ($.21/$.66) and Rest for the Weary ($.26/$.76)

I can hear you from here. “Lifegain cards? What?” I understand that reaction, but hear me out. In a Burn deck, which is always an option in Legacy, gaining 8 or 10 life is worth two or three cards to the fireslinger. Rest for the Weary is probably more consistent, but being green and two more life might end up making Feed the Clan an option.

 

Timely Reinforcements ($.56/$8)

It’s already an $8 foil, it’s true, but this card is such a backbreaker against Burn or aggro strategies that I think it can go higher. Two cards’ worth of life and three blockers is a lot to get from three mana. It’s easy to cast in a lot of decks, which is a big point in its favor.

 

Kor Firewalker ($.60/$5/promo foil $3)

Speaking of a backbreaker, this is a very tough card for a Burn deck to deal with, and the only thing keeping this from seeing more play is the mana cost. Not many decks in either eternal format can come up with WW consistently on turn two. Amusingly, this card shows up in some sideboards of Boros Burn decks as a card for the mirror match!

 

Rending Volley ($.46/$6)

I’ve mentioned this card before, but the foil being at only $6 when it’s so good against so many things, and being so cheap to cast…it’s a perfect storm. About the only thing it can’t do is get past an active Mother of Runes. It takes out combo pieces of Splinter Twin, it takes out Angels, Delvers, Snapcasters…it’s a long list of things that players need to kill.

 

Valorous Stance ($2/$6)

This is a $2 uncommon because it’s such a good answer to everything. This will be a more expensive foil as eternal decks pick it up as a way to save any creature from just about all removal. Toxic Deluge gets by this, but almost no other sweepers do. It’s true this isn’t a good answer to Swords to Plowshares in Legacy or Path to Exile in Modern, but that’s why it’ll be a sideboard card, not maindeck.

 

Destructive Revelry ($.26/$2)

Burn decks are starting to go Naya, adding green for Atarka’s Command in the main and this in the board. It’s an alternative to Smash to Smithereens that can also hit Leyline of Sanctity or Eidolon of the Great Revel in the mirror. It’s a versatile card that has a very good chance to go up farther. If the foils fall in price at rotation, picking some up at $1 or $1.50 is quite reasonable.

 

Searing Blood ($1/$6)

Speaking of great sideboard Red cards, this is outstanding. It’s not as good as Searing Blaze, but it’s not far off. The more creatures that get played, the better this gets. The mana cost is an issue, but as a very popular sideboard option, this has potential to grow to $8 or $10. If it dips to $5 at rotation, don’t be afraid to pick some up.

 

Leyline of Punishment ($1/$3.50)

This is one of the few ways that a Burn deck can deal with Kor Firewalker, since the prevention aspect of protection from red is not relevant anymore. This also stops lifegain, the other monster under the bed that scares Burn decks. At four mana it’s no good for the deck, though, so it’s in the opening seven or bust for this card.

 

Electrickery ($.21/$2.70)

It’s a singleton or pair in Legacy sideboards, dealing a damage to Snapcaster, Pyromancer, tokens, all sorts of things. It hasn’t seen as much Modern play lately, but if Mentor or Pyromancer blows up again, this might be the sideboard option of choice. It also answers unenchanted Bogles and a Mongoose without Threshold.

 

Nature’s Claim ($.30/$5 CNS/$9 WWK)

The reprint in Conspiracy didn’t hurt much, but it does give competition. This would be a $15 foil otherwise. It’s cheap and very versatile, a great answer to all sorts of problems. This card helps illustrate why Swords is an excellent answer, because when you’re ahead, a little life for the opponent is no big deal.

 

Kolaghan’s Command ($2/$6.50)

You may laugh, but it’s showing up in Grixis Delver decks. Imagine killing their Snapcaster while getting yours back, and being able to cast it again. Killing artifacts is useful, and discard at instant speed is rarely a bad option to have. It’s not terribly powerful but it is very flexible at a low cost. If it gets popular the foils will really go up.

 

Virulent Plague ($.27/$1.47)

There are a lot of options for reducing creature sizes. Curse of Death’s Hold, Night of Souls’ Betrayal, Illness in the Ranks, and so on, but this one might be the best for hosing a lot of Zombie-based strategies as well. It’s not going to cut it against Elves in Legacy, but being an answer to Splinter Twin might cause these foils to enjoy a decent spike.

 

Golgari Charm ($.57/$7)

Another answer for token swarms, but with more flexibility, this has been featured a couple of times in Legacy events. It’s also a very good Cube card, and it seeing more Modern play with Abzan on the rise. There’s a good chance that this breaks $10 in foil by the end of the year.

 

Izzet Charm ($.66/$3/$2.50 FNM foil)

Again, this is a very versatile spell that fits in a number of situations as long as you can cast it. Dig for your combo pieces. Kill an early threat. Counter a problem. Cubes love this card as well, but the presence of an FNM promo will probably help keep the price at $5 or less. There’s a chance this becomes popular, though, and it’s worth thinking about.


 

The Floor on DTK

By: Cliff Daigle

I have a confession to make: I’m trading for Dragonlord Ojutai.

Not only am I trading for those, I’m giving up fetch lands and other long-term staples for them.

Why? I think that when Battle for Zendikar is out, demand is going to be even higher for Ojutai, Atarka, and likely Silumgar as well.

As for why I’m trading for in-print mythics that go for about $40, $19, and $16, well, hear me out.

I’ve said before that DTK cards have a unique situation, being two packs of a draft format when it’s a big set. I have written that Modern Masters 2015 is going to impact the supply of DTK opened. Magic Origins is going to eclipse it soon too.

We are going into a perfect storm of low supply and awesomely good cards.

To be clear, I don’t think every cards in Dragons has potential. I am especially leery of Dromoka’s Command, because I think that will get a ton worse without making someone sacrifice enchantment creatures like Courser of Kruphix. Hunt the Weak at instant speed for two mana is good, but it’s not $10 good.

What will be good in Standard when Theros is gone? Some form of blue-white control shell with three Ojutai. Perhaps Esper dragons stays on top with some Silumgar as well. Seems like a safe card to want, what with a new generation of Eldrazi on the horizon, begging to be stolen.

What’s impressed me is how good Atarka, Silumgar, and the why-the-heck-is-this-five-mana Ojutai are at, well, everything. Ojutai especially has been impressive, and it’s worth considering that even near $40, there’s room to grow…but with 20% of its growth having been in the past two weeks, I’m not sure how high it can or will go.

I think that players are always going to want to play a control deck with just a few creatures. I don’t know if losing Dissolve and all the extra Scry will decimate the deck or what.

I am convinced, though, that you should get your three copies now if you want to play with Ojutai.

What else from Dragons am I looking for?

 

Dragonlords Atarka and Silumgar

These are not four-of Dragons, mainly due to their cost. These are accessory Dragons, finishers, and their price reflects their less-used nature. They are better than Ojutai at affecting the board, but are more vulnerable to being killed immediately. I believe that removal which can deal with these is going to be at a premium. Valorous Stance does it, as do a couple of Charms, Hidden Dragonslayer, but with Hero’s Downfall leaving soon there’s not a lot of cheap ways to kill these Dragonlords.

 

Sidisi, Undead Vizier

I really like Sidisi as a spec target for the coming year. It’s a cheap cost, though no playable creature is as expendable as Satyr Wayfinder. The body you get, though, is tough to dance with even if the creature is vulnerable to Ultimate Price.

 

Thunderbreak Regent

As Guo pointed out earlier this week, the Game Day promo version is a hot commodity right now. It’s a 4/4 for 4, flying, that bolts the opponent killing it. This is a powerful and cheap creature, and any deck in Standard has to have a plan for seeing it on turn four or even three.

This IS a four-of, because it is disgusting in multiples. The price should remain stable while it’s in Standard, and has a good chance to go up in the coming months.

 

Foil Rending Volley

I said it a while ago: this is the Legacy and Modern sideboard card. The original is fifty cents and the foils are over $6. It’s so good at so many things, and it might even be a Standard sideboard answer for Ojutai. Get them while you can!

 

Deathmist Raptor

The way this combos with Den Protector is just filthy-rich in value. The endless looping of two Den Protector and the relative lack of graveyard hate make Raptor tough to deal with long-term. Both of these cards are growing in value as they fit together like peanut butter and jelly. Every Standard deck for the next 12 months has to have a plan for these cards, and playing the mirror can be the grindiest.

I think both of these cards will be even more expensive come the end of Magic Origins.

 

Monastery Mentor

While not in Dragons of Tarkir, this mythic has slid down to $16 as it’s been opened in one pack of drafts for the past six months or so. This is an easy pickup for gaining value, because it fits so nicely with Delver decks. I’m listening if you want to make the case of this vs. Young Pyromancer, but look at the Pyro’s foil price if you want to see its Legacy impact.

I like Mentor to break $25 before all is said and done.


 

Eyeing Rotation

By: Cliff Daigle

This is one of my favorite times of year as a casual financier, because people are starting to plan ahead for rotation in the fall. It’s really not that far off, though we do have a couple of sets to go before Theros block and M15 bid farewell to Standard.

Because people plan ahead more, there’s less of a problem with prices cratering at rotation than there used to be. It’s difficult to get full value on Theros block cards right now, and while I’m not buying anything yet, I’m planning for some things becoming available.

Theros

Thoughtseize – It’s down to $20 from its pre-reprint high of $80. Thoughtseize is one of the most powerful cards around, costing a card, one mana, and two life to rip a plan apart. As a rare in a best-selling fall set, the supply is very large, and the demand is also real in eternal formats.

I’d agree with you if you said that the price is going to go up over time. I wouldn’t be shocked if it was $30 or even $40 within a couple of years. The buy-in and the payoff time is just too high for my small-budget tastes, unfortunately. If it fell to the $12-$15 range, I would be aggressively picking them up. They are just too good.

Elspeth, Sun’s Champion – At $10 and declining ever since her Duel Deck came out, she’s a prime target. Planeswalkers are always going to have a certain appeal, and this one epitomizes what this card type is supposed to do. Good against small creatures, good against big ones, and an ultimate that makes it hard for you to lose.

I’m hoping she drops to the $7 range by September, but I’m happy trading for her at $10 and letting her slowly appreciate. I’m also not going to distinguish much between the Duel Deck foils and the regular Theros ones. Very few people are going to snub the foil and seek the regular.

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx – I traded for a half-dozen of these at $8, and even with the recent spike in devotion decks, it’s not even back to $7. This will take a hit as rotation nears and those decks lose a lot of value, so when it gets back to sub-$5 decks that’s when to pick them up for their long-term

The Temples (Triumph, Plenty, Deceit, Mystery) – These are currently at pretty low prices, and I have to say that if they make it to $1 or so, I’ll be snagging them left and right. They are not good enough for most cubes, but they are fantastic in Commander and are unlikely to be reprinted soon. I wouldn’t expect a big turnaround on these, but they are solid and safe pickups.

Born of the Gods

Kiora, the Crashing Wave – It’s always worth looking into cheap Planeswalkers. Kiora has the Duel Deck edition going on, and that’s going to keep a cap on her price for a while. Picking her up in trades for $5 or less will be easy enough and worth doing. Keep in mind that Born of the Gods and Journey into Nyx have some relatively short print runs, and Kiora is Cube-worthy if there’s support for the Simic color pairing.

The Temples (Enlightenment, Plenty, Malice) – The first two of these have higher prices right now because of their applications in Standard. Waiting until rotation to pick these up is the play. I really like these as inclusions for deliberately underpowered Cubes, too. Get them around $1-$2, though Temple of Enlightenment pops up occasionally in Modern lists and might not go below $4.

Journey into Nyx

Ajani, Mentor of Heroes – I said it when the card came out: This is a terribly awesome card in the superfriends decks and you’ll want to wait till rotation to pick up a few. The price is still high, $16, due to a smattering of play and the low run of Journey cards. I’m not sure how low it will go, as there were never all that many in circulation, but there are a lot of Standard decks running him as a one- or two-of. Dropping to $10 seems likely, but he’s seeing zero Modern play and most of the Commander decks that wanted one got one, so $5-$7 is in play too.

Eidolon of the Great Revel – This is knocking on $10 and has been climbing all year. This took a hit not long ago, knocking down to $6, but it’s come back strong. This card is the real deal in eternal formats, making waves in everyone’s budget deck of choice: Burn. This has an excellent chance to add $5 or more in value within the next year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if rotation didn’t touch this price. It’s worth saying that in this day and age, reprints are a funny thing, and this is something I’d have on the radar for a reprint before long. When they go up, go ahead and sell out.

The foils are just $25, and that’s a low price for something that is a four-of in Legacy maindecks. It seems like a pretty easy pickup now, and has great potential to go higher. We’re not talking Abrupt Decay-level spikes, but seeing this as a $50 foil within a year wouldn’t be shocking. It’s that good and that commonly played in Legacy and Modern.

Magic 2015

Garruk, Apex Predator – Currently at $15 and seeing just a touch of Standard play, rotation should push him to $8 or so, and that’s when you want to pick up a few. This is a fantastic Commander card and is pretty unlikely to get printed again.

Ajani Steadfast – Only when this gets under $5 will I want to get any copies in trades.

Obelisk of Urd – Hear me out. Tribal decks are absolutely a thing in casual play and this is a pretty good way to make any tribe terrifying. Convoke is an excellent way to lower its cost, and the card is at $3/$5 despite seeing the tiniest amount of Constructed play. I’m a big fan of picking up these foils right now, and being patient. I’m not saying these will double in six months, but I do think these will have a slow upward trend and be excellent trade fodder.

The Chain Veil – With a foil split of $1/$8, this card has serious casual appeal. The nonfoils are a pretty weak bet, but it won’t cost you much to pick some up and this is a unique effect in a mythic slot, a combination that can lead to some impressive price swings. I would agree with you if you bought a few now and simply waited until a five-color legend was printed that enables planeswalkers somehow, or, heaven forbid, there was a five-color planeswalker that had the ‘This can be your Commander’ text. That would spike this foil to at least $20 upon being revealed.

Prediction Review

By: Cliff Daigle

From time to time, I like to go back into my archives and look at predictions I made, and see if I was right or wrong. Self-reflection is an important part of the process, and anything that improves my ability to gain value is good.

The Curious Case of Time Travel (Jan. 16, 2015)

At the end, I made these statements:

  1. If you open the foil alternate-art Ugin, hold on to it. This weekend will represent the largest supply of these cards and the lowest price. If Ugin ends up as an awesome card in Modern Tron decks, then the pimp foil has yet another outlet to fetch a high price. Commander players all want the card anyway! (Including me)
  2. Trade away almost everything else. Supply on Fate Reforged this week is at its lowest, and you should sell into the hype. Everything is hyped, so move it all.
  3. The exception to this rule is Whisperwood Elemental. This is an amazing casual card but it’s also pretty great in Standard, as a free source of card advantage. I think it has room to grow, and multiple sites are increasing their preorder price on it.

I was right by about 50% on #1, mostly right on #2, and spot on for point #3. I’m actually a fan of picking up Whisperwood right now, because it’s just good. It’s six power and toughness for five mana, and is likely to be important for the coming year. Getting it now around $12 is okay, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it hit $15 or $20 around the time of Battle for Zendikar.

The Fate of Dragons (Jan. 9, 2015)

I told you to pick up foil Dragonspeaker Shaman at $8, and it’s gone up to $12. We might not be done watching it rise. I also called Utvara Hellkite, which has doubled.

I did not make good predictions about Dragon Roost, Dragonstorm, and perhaps worst of all, Scion of the Ur-Dragon. That one really stings. I seriously thought we would get a new 5-color dragon to play with, and that would preclude a run on Scion. The nonfoil has gone from $2 to $16, and the foils have gone from $50 to about $80. That’s a lot of value that I missed, because I wanted a new dragon.

The lesson here is that I need to make sure I don’t lose focus on what is, in my quest for what could be. Perhaps I was too bullish on a new 5-color legend, and lost sight of the fact that the old one would still be very good.

Commander 2014 Previews (Oct. 31, 2014)

So the moral of the story is this: Wizards is going to make sure that the True-Name Nemesis problem doesn’t reoccur. Each Commander printing going forward is going to produce enough stock to keep everything very reasonable to very cheap in price. I was way off for almost every card, but my advice to stick with singles could not have been better. The singles prices for this entire set are rather low, and two of my favorites (Dualcaster Mage and Feldon of the Third Path) just got revealed as judge foils.

Looking at the prices for Commanders 2013 release is even worse. You might expect otherwise, but no, this has three cards over $5. Next year, get out of the reprints and fast.

Overall, one of my worst sets of predictions. The lesson is learned, and I’m +1 to Humility.

My LongTerm Targets (Sept. 26, 2014)

In this piece, I looked at several cards for long-term growth. It’s been seven months, worth peeking in for progress:

Unchanged: Garruk, Caller of Beasts, Scavenging Ooze, shock lands, Master Biomancer, Aurelia, the Warleader, Enter the Infinite, Thespian’s Stage, Sphinx’s Revelation, Rest in Peace, Ash Zealot

Gone up slightly: Kalonian Hydra, Rise of the Dark Realms, Progenitor Mimic, Chromatic Lantern

One of the worst feelings as a writer for MTGPrice is when I advocate for a card and then that card tanks in value. I still like the cards that haven’t changed in price, and at the least, I haven’t lost any value on any of these.

I think Ash Zealot is still a great card in Modern. If Snapcaster is good and prevalent, isn’t this a fine answer for Burn decks? I’d rather be deep on this than Zurgo Bellstriker, right?

Magic 2015’s Casual Appeal (July 11, 2014)

These are always good to look at in hindsight. Did I make accurate calls? Was my reasoning good?

I underestimated the appeal of Ajani, Mentor of Heroes in Standard. Plus, he’s relatively scarce, two factors that have kept him far above my target of $10, and also why I was so off on Nissa, Worldwaker. Garruk, Apex Predator, though, he did make it down to $10 but has bounced back up to $13. I was rather wrong about Jace, the Living Guilpact, though.

Perilous Vault went even lower than I thought it would, and I can’t wait to get foils around $15 when it rotates in the fall. I was spot-on with the Hivelord going to $7, though I was a few dollars off on the foil. The foil version of the Chain Veil is also a high split, at $1.50/$8.