All posts by Cliff Daigle

I am a father, teacher, cuber and EDH fanatic. My joy is in Casual and Limited formats, though I dip a toe into Constructed when I find something fun to play. I play less than I want to and more than my schedule should really allow. I can easily be reached on Twitter @WordOfCommander. Try out my Busted Uncommons cube at http://www.cubetutor.com/viewcube/76330

Delicious Toppings, Part 1

We know 26 of the 40 Box Toppers, and we know a lot of the rares. It’s pretty likely that three of the remaining Toppers are the other three Swords, so let’s look at some pricing and comparisons, to see where these prices might go.

Now, we have prices on some of these, but it takes a seller with a lot of confidence to pre-sell these, especially in foil. Keep in mind that the VIP boosters are the ONLY way to get foil versions of the box toppers. I’m going to list the current low price for a foil on TCG as of Thursday night, and get some comparisons where I can. Not everything has a price yet, so be kind.

For most of these, there’s going to be a dip as soon as the VIP packs arrive and people rush to crack the value. Given the relatively small amount out there, though, I expect prices to recover at a decent pace. One more wrinkle to consider is that, according to the official Magic Twitter, “All borderless showcase cards with a rare expansion symbol will appear twice as frequently as those with a mythic rare expansion symbol. This is true of box toppers in #MTG2XM booster boxes as well as the premium foils of these cards in VIP Edition.”

So the slots for the toppers will have a 1/3 chance of being a mythic, and 2/3 of being rare. Even more math!

Karn Liberated ($108) – We have the Ultimate Masters Box Topper to compare to, and that’s right about $100, so the big question is, do you like the art? The Karn face is meme-ing all over the Magic community, and Mark Tedin has owned it, making it his Facebook profile pic:

Jokes aside, $100 seems totally reasonable for this foil. You’ve got your pick of art, with Jason Chan’s take being both iconic and powerful. It’s worth remembering that the people who like this are going to want to collect the matching Urza lands, which we’ll get back to.

Jace, the Mind Sculptor ($170) – Worldwake foils are at a cool $500, with Mythic Edition checking in at $175. That’s the only version that doesn’t use the original art, but now we get the original with a sweet frame. I think this is too closely priced to the Mythic price, and I’ll expect this JTMS to inch a little higher, likely to about $250. I don’t think you want to preorder yet, but there should be fewer of this than the Mythic Edition.

Council’s Judgment ($90) – As compared to the $70 Conspiracy foil, this seems perfectly reasonable. That was from a small set, and not opened a lot because people didn’t like the format. Keep in mind, too, that’s a release from 2014. As such, I think this is going to fall a bit from $90, and end up below the pack foil. Yes, it’s a way to get rid of True-Name Nemesis in Legacy, but there’s not the same level of demand as there is for Jace or some of these others, being in only 3800 decks on EDHREC.

Cyclonic Rift ($85) – The original foil is $60 or so, but this is new art and a new frame for one of the most annoyingly iconic Commander cards around. There’s no defense. Protection, hexproof, or shroud, it doesn’t matter. It’s been a rare twice and gotten a Commander reprint, and is in 91k decks online. That is an enormous amount of bouncing. Given all of that, I think $85 is too low for the foils, and it’ll stabilize about $120.

Phyrexian Metamorph ($50) – The pack foil is $15, so this seems like a big jump over that. Being in 15,000 decks online helps push this price upward. It’ll come down some from $50, but I’m expecting it to rebound nicely into the $60 range.

Dark Confidant ($100) – As a mythic, it’ll have a higher price than the rares, but $100 seems high, given the number of times it’s been reprinted. The Judge foil, using the original art and an old border, can be had for $125, so keeping this at $100 seems a tad high. Not too many people want this card, so a correction down into the $80 range is likely.

Sneak Attack ($60) – Given a judge foil of $40 and that this is a mythic, this is in the right range. It’s got a Legacy deck, but not a lot of Commander pull, so I’d expect it to go a touch lower.

Crop Rotation ($43) – Until Double Masters, there was only one foil: the original from Urza’s Legacy, the first set with foils. It was a common, even! About 20,000 people play this in their Commander decks online, and it’s a four-of in Legacy Lands, so there’s going to be a fair level of demand. Even with that, I think this is about the floor for foil box toppers from this set and it’s a decent price for now.

Doubling Season ($120) – This is $30 more than the original pack foil, and that feels off to me. It’s rare but possible for the new version to be pricier than the pack foil, but this has been printed a bunch of times, yet always climbs back up to $40. The nonfoil being $90 is definitely too high, but this one should fall back to the $90 or so of the original. It’s cute art, but not quite as iconic, and won’t command a premium.

Exploration ($90) – Okay, now this one is weird. Right now, the foil and the nonfoil box topper are within five bucks of each other. We can infer that one of two things is going on: Either the nonfoil is horribly overpriced, or the foils are horribly underpriced. My inclination is to say that the nonfoils are overpriced, because these foil, while absolutely gorgeous, are not going to be $150ish. More likely is that the foil comes down a little and the nonfoil comes down a lot.

Noble Hierarch ($90) – This is too high. The Judge foil with the old border, a lot more iconic than this frame, can be had in NM for about $15 more. The Ultimate Box Topper is a $60 foil. While it’s new art and a new treatment, it’s not enough for such a price jump.

Atraxa, Praetors’ Voice ($120) – This is a hard prediction to make. On one hand, the original Atraxa was Commander-only, and was $35 despite being reprinted in Commander Anthology 2. This is new art, and it’s been four years since the reprint. I’m going to guess that this foil stays in the $100 range, between the people who are upgrading from old Atraxa and also the ones who pick this up and then build a Commander deck around her. This is the #2 all time commander on EDHREC, so that’s the list of staples I’ll be keeping an eye on.

Kaalia of the Vast ($120) – In a lot of ways, the same pattern as Atraxa, only older. Kaalia was an original Commander, way back in 2011, and then reprinted in the first Anthology. She’s farther down the list than Atraxa, and encourages a different deckbuild. She also leaves out the two best colors in Commander, with no UG shenanigans. I don’t think she can hold this price, and I’d expect her to come down to about $80.

Next week I’ll finish the list!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

War of the Spark at Rotation

We have almost exactly two months until the official release of Zendikar Rising, and that means we’ve got that much time until War of the Spark rotates out. In addition to being a blast to draft, and introducing a lot of planeswalker variations (static abilities, uncommon power level, Nicol Bolas, Dragon-God having every other ability, etc.) we’ve got to decide what to buy and what to avoid from this set for the long term.

Remember, we’re looking for things that are awesome in the Eternal formats (Vintage, Legacy, Modern, and Pioneer) or in casual/Cube/Commander. Fortunately, or unfortunately, this is the last set with the old rules: there are regular copies, and foil copies, and we’re expecting the foils to be about 3x the price of the nonfoils. The War of the Spark uncut sheets that got sent out last year don’t seem to have made a dent in those foil prices, if you were worried about it.

The foil multiplier rules don’t apply to newer sets, but let’s look at what data we have.

First of all, I need to take a moment and repeat what we’ve been saying on MTG Fast Finance: the alternate-art Japanese planeswalkers in foil are being siphoned out of the market by collectors and players, with the Holy Grail of the Yoshitaka Amano art for Liliana, Dreadhorde General going on eBay for $2,300 or more. That’s the most expensive card possible from a Standard booster pack that I can think of. Expensive boosters are from long-out-of-print sets, and even the lesser planeswalkers in alternate foil are going for $50+.

Suffice it to say, keeping Japanese sealed War of the Spark is an excellent investment. The rise in price of the foil alternates will keep rising, and that will drive up sealed prices. They haven’t gone crazy yet, but the prices of the singles involved will make this climb like mad. 

Finale of Devastation ($20 nonfoil/$35 foil) – Being a mythic is part of what’s driving this, but it’s also an upgrade/backup to Green Sun’s Zenith. It’s in 15,000 decks on EDHREC, which is pretty great for a card a little over a year old. It sees some Modern play, because it can go get any part of an infinite combo and isn’t restricted to green creatures. It’s also a finisher, giving +X/+X to the team and wiping out other players. It’s too popular not to get a reprint, though, and that’s the only thing making me pause. 

That’s not what a graph of a rotating card usually looks like. That’s a card on the rise, and I have to say it: Get your personal copies now, because while the chance of a reprint is high, we’ve no way of knowing when it’ll be. It’s a little too pricey to be in a Commander deck already. If it dodges reprint in Commander Legends later this year, then it’ll take off. If you’re comfortable with the reprint risk (and a downshift to rare is quite possible) then it’s a great target, because any Commander decks with Green in the colors ought to be running this.

Teferi, Time Raveler ($15/$27/$44 in Stained Glass) – Big in Modern, Pioneer, Legacy, and Commander, this is THE card if you want to have a warm safe feeling that comes from none of your spells being at risk. It’s also the mirror-breaker, the card that can shut down a whole strategy. Being this much of a staple means that it’s got a lot of legs going forward. There are also several versions to watch out for, so aside from the original, there’s also the Secret Lair stained glass and the alternate art in Japanese. 

I think Teferi is a good pickup, especially if the price falls a little farther. Ten bucks is a super-reasonable price for a long-term investment, but if it stays at $15, that’s going to take a while longer to get into profits.

Narset’s Reversal ($5/$12) – I didn’t think this would be any good, but you know where it’s phenomenal? Commander. It’s listed in 20,000 decks! The idea is that you’re going to use this spell on a giant haymaker of a spell, something for extra turns, a Comet Storm for 40, or the game-ending Insurrection. The pedigree is there and I think the foil is a solid pickup. This isn’t seeing any play in other places, which means copies are not circulating once they are put into Commander decks.

Ashiok, Dream Render ($1.50 – $100, depending on printing and finish) – There is currently one foil Japanese alt-art copy on TCG for $100, and I don’t think that’s unreasonable for a card with this level of usefulness in Commander. I don’t advocate picking up nonfoil English, but I think Secret Lair stained glass in the $13 range is a fantastic purchase. This shuts down tutors, and exiles everyone’s graveyard, both eminently useful abilities in Commander. Get it, keep it, use it.

Nissa, Who Shakes the World ($5/$12/$40 stained glass)

The graph is helpful here: 

That’s a card getting dumped before rotation. The problem is that it’s one of the most-played cards in Standard right now, being best buddies with Uro, Growth Spiral, and Ugin. Your exact configuration may vary, but this Nissa has been a big part of Standard her whole career. There’s just enough interest in Modern and Pioneer ramp, plus her Commander appeal, to make this a very solid pickup once she bottoms out, perhaps as low as $3 right after rotation. There’s a rumor that she’s in all the Godzilla land Secret Lair drops, and if that’s the case, I’ll be looking to pick up stained glass copies on the cheap as they flood the market.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Checking in on Core 2021

Core Set 2021 has been officially released for a couple of weeks now, and to no one’s surprise, prices are falling across the board. 

You may be thinking that it’s time to get in on some of these cards, and I’d agree with that in a couple of cases. Let’s talk about what’s fallen, how far it’s fallen, and if it’s time to pick them up from rock bottom.

Teferi, Master of Time ($38)

Slightly different versions notwithstanding, here’s the short graph of Teferi, showing the decline from $50+:

Teferi is the chase mythic of the set, for now, but he’s got farther to fall. Since we aren’t playing in paper, I suspect that this price is being bolstered by Commander players who’d love to loot endlessly. It’s quite notable that Medium Teferi (As opposed to Big Teferi and Little Teferi) cannot get you even on cards or permanents. It’s all tempo, at least until the ultimate gets involved. The card is neat, but the issue of no paper events for six months (at least for MagicFests) is definitely pushing prices down, as people aren’t bothering to buy a card they can’t use. 

I won’t be shocked to see the trend continue, either. Teferi is only good in Standard for just over a year, but that timeframe is severely impacted by the pandemic’s effect on paper Magic. I won’t be buying this as a spec, no matter how tempting it gets. Too many factors against it, and too many other places I’d rather put my money.

Terror of the Peaks ($14)

Now this is much more up my alley. It’s fallen slightly in these last couple weeks, but it was already much more reasonably priced under $20 than Teferi’s $50+. In fact, I’m a pretty big fan of this in Extended Art as well, though I want to give this market a little more time to cool off. Still too many people who are ravenous to get this card, but I can’t blame them. Pandemonium on wings is a pretty damn sweet card, and I’m all for playing Commander cards that say ‘Better take care of this now, before it gets out of hand in exactly one turn!’

This is the sort of card that ought to dominate Standard too, even if it’s in the same set as Baneslayer Angel. However, Standard (before rotation, at any rate) is heavily into tempo plays, and having this bounced does cost them 3 life. I’m hoping this falls further so that it can be a long-term casual hold, because this is a ridiculously busted Dragon. Combine with Rite of Replication for logarithmic levels of damage. 

If basic copies fall to $10 and the EA foils get to the $30 range, I’ll dive in, but I’m not counting on it falling that far, as casual demand has kept this high.

Grim Tutor ($18)

Some of the earliest presales had this as high at eighty dollars and let’s pour one out for the folks who don’t ever listen. This isn’t a good card outside of the most dedicated combo decks. Three mana is a lot extra, making it difficult to tutor and play the thing you tutored for. Demonic Tutor at two mana is where you want to be, and Grim Tutor is a much worse version of a good card.

This isn’t done falling, and please, don’t start buying it because the original version was so expensive. It was pricey because there were so few copies left from Starter 1999, not because it was good.

Double Vision (fifty cents, but a dollar in EA and $5 in EA foil)

This is a card that I love for long term casual growth, and your buy-in is really low right now. Spells is a fun theme in Commander, and this is the sort of effect that people can’t get enough of. Plus it pairs well with things that steal other players’ spells, like Etalli, Primal Storm. It’s super cheap now and will be all summer, but as copies dry up, the trajectory looks wonderfully bright.

Showcase Lands (around 50 cents) Oh these are gorgeous and then some. I’m partial to the Guild Lands, but Jumpstart gave us a new set of basics to crave, plus the Nyx ones we just had, and we’ve really been on a tear with these basic lands in the past year or so. The joyous thing about basic land finance is that people tend to want a lot of the same land, and I 100% respect it. If you like these lands, get them pretty soon, as we’re not going to have a lot of these opened compared to a normal set. Get your Cube/Commander/Draft set lands ready now, before they are a buck each.

Solemn Simulacrum (Alternate Art) – At about $3, this seems like a good purchase. If you hunt around a little, or pop into Europe, you’ll find even better deals. The foils can be had in the $10-$11 range, and that seems like a great price too. There are a LOT of printings of this card, including several Commander decks, Mystery Boosters, an Invention, and now this. Having the alternate art and frame makes this a fantastic investment, so don’t be afraid to pick these up aggressively. They aren’t Invention-rare, and they don’t carry the sad-robot cache of the original art, but these are sweet as hell and a good spec.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Ravnica Allegiance at Rotation

We’re one week into Core 2021, and frankly, you should be selling most of what you’re opening. Teferi, Master of Time is down several dollars in the last week and he’s not done falling. This is a great time to be flipping cards/sealed product to the people that have to have things right now, and also a time to be looking at the cheapest cards in Standard as they prepare to rotate into the Eternal arena.

Last week was Guilds of Ravnica, now it’s time for Ravnica Allegiance. Let me tell you, this set has some clunkers, but also some unexpected opportunities.

Let’s start with the biggies: The Shocklands. Breeding Pool is at an all-time high, at $25 for a Standard land. I don’t think any of the fetches were that high during KTK, Cavern of Souls was close to that at one point. What’s really impressive is this price point when it’s got a huge supply from the other trips to Ravnica and also this close to rotation. 

I think you should sell your Pools and your Blood Crypts ($15) right now. Yes, Pioneer adds a layer of demand to the shocks but that’s not going to balance out the lack of demand once Standard changes. If you can get $17 each for your set of Pools (According to our buylist tools, MiniatureMarket is buying them at $18.75 from Ravnica Allegiance) that’s $68, and I’ll be stunned if you have to spend $12 each on them by Christmas. Much more likely is the $8-$9 price they were at before. 

And let’s face it, you’re not going to play a lot of in-person Sanctioned Magic before rotation anyway. GET YOUR VALUE.

Hydroid Krasis ($13/$26 foil) – This has been trending downwards since its glory days, but really, this big flying Jellyfish Hydra Beast will always be besties with Nissa, who Shakes the World. It’s a fantastic payoff for ramp strategies in Commander and Cube, and foils are a solid pickup. Pioneer has a good Simic Ramp deck, and that will likely be enough to keep the price of nonfoils stable around $10 until this is reprinted in the next ‘X spells matter’ Commander set. Even with that deck’s existence, I’d be selling my copies of this and getting what I can. Again, we aren’t going to play in paper until after rotation.

Guardian Project ($5/$13) – The ship has sailed on getting these cheap, and if you have any currently, I’d tell you to sell them, take your profits, and move on. Commander Legends at the end of this year would be the main place I’d look for a reprint, but Green decks in Commander are spoiled for choice when it comes to ‘creatures draw you a card’ effects. This is better than Elemental Bond in most decks, and outclasses Beast Whisperer. Cheaper than Primordial Sage and Soul of the Harvest, too. It’s in a sweet spot and if you’re happening to run Panharmonicon-type effects, it gets doubled up. It’s hard not to like this card long-term, but the reprint risk is very high and cannot be ignored. Even if it dodged a new printing this year, it’s a great candidate for Commander 2021.

Prime Speaker Vannifar ($3/$14) – This is the next-to-last set where the idea of a ‘foil multiplier’ still holds, and portends great things here. I’d expect foils to be in the $10 range, but being higher than that indicates a strong casual demand for the shiny version. It’s a mythic, a combo engine, a ‘fixed’ version of a banned-in-Modern card. I picked foils this week on MTG Fast Finance to double up in the next 18 months, and as an engine card for Modern and Pioneer, I’m pretty confident. Reprints are a risk, and Simic gets all the fun toys lately, so I understand if you’re hesitant, but I promise, this isn’t going to let you down.

Persistent Petitioners ($2/$7) – This went up by a big amount as Jumpstart entered the equation and made Bruvac the Grandiloquent one of the most expensive and sought-after Commanders. Let’s put it this way, even with Petitioners buylisting at $1+, there’s only 112 total copies on TCG right now, of all conditions, foils and non. That’s tiny, and likely a reflection of constrained inventory management due to the coronavirus. Expensive commons are what allows a store to buy bulk collections, and something’s got to give here. The really good news here from a speculative standpoint: Unless this is reprinted in a big Standard set, a reprint doesn’t matter at all. Commander decks are going to play at least 20 copies of this card (Stock up on Thrumming Stone!) and more likely 30+. Being included as a one-of someplace means nothing, and aside from the Rat Colony Secret Lair, I can’t imagine they’d devote a slot of slots to this card. 

I can see this buylisting for $3 once people get their Bruvac copies, so now might be the time to move in.

Rhythm of the Wild ($1.70/$9) – Because this has the Riot keyword, it’s not quite the hammerlock to be reprinted that you might expect…but it will get another nonfoil printing. It’s a golden, wonderful, warm blanket of happiness on turn 3 in a Commander game, and has a foil multiplier to back that up. It gets better, too: There are ten vendors with foils on TCG right now (one has 21 copies!) and it’s in 18,000 EDH decks. I can’t tell you when it’ll get another printing, but it’ll be soon. It’s too good in Commander not to be in the next RGx deck that has a ton of creatures. I can list a lot of cards with similar effects, like Temur Ascendancy or Akroma’s Memorial, but being an enchantment means the ‘can’t be countered’ clause is going to be in effect even after assorted sweepers.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.