Check out our Pro Tour Aether Revolt financial preview over here, and join us for round to round coverage in live blog style below all day.

Round 4 (1st Round of Standard) started at 9am EST/6am PST, Friday, Feb 3rd, 2017 after three rounds of draft. Here’s how things are playing out.

Round 4 starts off with the introduction of a Grixis improvise based deck including Herald of Anguish , which I will cover in more depth once I have full details. It’s worth noting that Inspiring Statuary had spiked to $4 last night on early whispers of a potential breakout deck, but is already falling back on MTGO as any such deck has failed to show up on camera thus far.

Round 4: Pierre Dagen (4C Marvel Cat) vs. MIke Sigrist (Jeskai Copy Cat)

Here we have two greats of the game, representing major teams in the tournament and both of them on variations of the Copy Cat combo. I’m sure WoTC development members are cringing at their desks watching Dagen field Aetherworks Marvel alongside the combo in a hybrid combo brew. The final game comes down to Sigrist going for the combo, only to have Dagen cast Negate, and allowing Siggy to respond with a Negate of his own to take the match.

Deck Tech #1: Paul Cheon (Team CFB Fire) on Jeskai Copy Cat

Paul is 1-0 in Standard so far, but went 0-2-1 in the draft portion. He’s on a controlling variant of Copy Cat that runs some card draw alongside a package of board control and counterspells to address both aggro decks and fellow combo decks. Nothing especially relevant from a financial perspective here, other than the indication that major teams failed to find a new deck that could beat Copy Cat consistently and still address the rest of the field.

Round 5: Martin Juza (Jund Energy Aggro) vs. Jon Finkel (Mardu Vehicles)

Both players are at 4-0 coming into this round, having 3-0’d their drafts and won their first round of Standard. Juza’s deck includes the Greenbelt Rampager to crew Heart of Kiran before returning to hand combo. Pretty slick. Finkel has a Heart of Kiran of his own however, alongside Depala, Scrapheap Scrounger and a heap of good removal. Finkel takes the first game after Juza fails to answer his threats quickly enough. In the 2nd game, Juza manages to field both Voltaic Brawler and Longtusk Cub into a Fatal Push to clear Jon’s Veteran Motorist, and unable to find the necessary lands, Finkel concedes the game and moves to the tie-breaker.

In the final game, Juza sideboarded into a more mid-range configuration with Skysovereign, Consul Flagship, and Finkel is caught drawing dead in the mid-game to fall to 4-1, as Juza moves to 5-0.

Deck Tech #2: Jund Zoo (Simon Nielsen)

Nielsen outlines that they were focused on early game, so cut two copies of Ballista, which is better late. Nissa, Voice of Zendikar also failed to make the cut and was replaced with Aethersphere Harvester for additional aggro pressure. Longtusk Cub called out as essential when partnered with Constrictor. Catacomb Sifter is there to provide multiple bodies to add counters to as well as minor ramp as necessary.

Day 1 Metagame Breakdown

The official tally from WoTC on the Standard Metagame for Day 1 shows a full 22% of the field on Mardu Vehicles trying to apply early pressure on the combo decks while holding answers for both other aggro decks and the Copy Cat combo. The cat decks still managed to hold onto 17% of the field, and BG decks combined for another 23%. A smattering of various control builds make up most of the rest of the field, leaving little room for widespread surprises on the weekend. Note that seven players are on the aforementioned new Herald of Torment Grixis Improvise deck but they are facing a steep road to the Top 8. So far I’m not seeing any cards more important to the format than Torrential Gearhulk and Verdurous Gearhulk, regardless of whether or not the cat combo ends up banned.

Round 6: Victor Fernando Silva (BG Constrictor) vs. Alexander Hayne (Mardu Vehicles)

Both players at 4-1 heading into this round. With a Gideon on board, a key Unlicensed Distintegration allows Hayne to press his advantage in Game 1 and take the lead. In Game 2, stuck on a couple of in play vehicles without crewmates, Hayne is forced to Game 3. IN Game 3, the late game finds Hayne with a mighty board force topped off by Chandra, Torch of Defiance. Hayne takes it in three.

On the back table, Kelvin Chew on Mardu Vehicles is battling Ben Rubin on BG Delirium, both at 5-0. Ben wins Game 1, but in Game 2 Kelvin gets Ben down to five life and forces Ben to find a quick succession of answers.

Deck Tech #3: Marvel Saheeli with Josh Utter-Leyton

Josh is at the tournament on an Aetherworks Marvel/Saheeli Rai hybrid combo deck that looks to combo people out as quickly as possible and puts Marvel back on the map as a potentially undervalued mythic available for less than $5 and often played as a 4-of. There aren’t a lot of these decks at the tournament, so one of them will need some luck to make it through to the final rounds.

Round  7: PVD (Mardu Vehicles) vs. Simon Nielsen (Jund Constrictor)

Game 1 is a grindy affair that ends up with Paulo staring over at an empty board and a quick concession. In Game 2, Pia Nalaar turning off blocks lets PVD push through the final damage he needs to convert to 6-1.

In the meantime, Verdurous Gearhulk, one of my picks on MTGFastFinance this week, is quietly moving towards $20. Could it hit $25 on the strength of the BG and Jund aggro decks this weekend?

Deck Tech #4: Sam Pardee on Mardu Vehicles

Sam outlines that the Mardu deck puts enough pressure on Saheeli combo decks to keep their Saheeli Rai off the table and has solid game vs. GB decks. Sam calls out Heart of Kiran as potentially better than Smuggler’s Copter in the deck, and they’re playing it as a 4-of. Along with Torrential Gearhulk and Verdurous Gearhulk, this could be one of the key mythics to see price motion this weekend. Currently available around $14, this could be a card that breaks $25 at some point this year, if not this weekend. There is plenty of inventory in stock however, and we haven’t even hit peak supply for Aether Revolt yet, so buyer beware.

Round 8: Thien Nguyen (BG Constrictor) vs. Cesar Segovia (BR Aggro)

Both players are at 7-0 heading into the last round of Day 1. In Game 1, Thien leads off with a double Winding Constrictor draw that threatens to end the game in a hurry with a Rishkar, Peema Renegade in hand.  Cesar however has the red direct damage necessary to break up the pressure, and we roll into the mid game with two Scrapheap Scroungers and a Heart of Kiran applying counter pressure as the Central American player switches gears. Weldfast Engineer from Segovia puts yet another uncommon card from Aether Revolt on the map, providing combat phase buffs for the RB aggro player turn after turn. Unfortunately, a debatable missed trigger costs Cesar the first game.

In Game 2 the players trade off resources, and LSV notes the value of Skysovereign, Consul Flagship coming out of the sideboard for Thien against an aggro deck that has many vulnerable threats. Segovia keeps the pressure up however, and Thien is unable to find a creature to crew his vehicle. Game 2 to Segovia. Game 3 turns on Thien getting stuck on three lands and no black mana, and Cesar goes to 8-0 on Day 1 with BR Aggro!

In other action a UR Dynavolt Tower control deck in the hands of Toru Inque tries to prevent a loss against BG Delirium by using Torrential Gearhulk to flash back Brutal Expulsion, exiling a Scraphap Scrounger and bouncing a plant token while blocking a Grim Flayer. The game ends up in extra turns, and the aggro player, Jan Ksandr is able to take the match on their final attack phase.

WoTC posted an article highlighting the power of Heart of Kiran on the main site over here. At the news desk Winding Constrictor is dubbed the Card of the Day, potentially setting up the uncommon for modest gains from $1.50 to $2 or $3. Overall, the blue and green gearhulks and Heart of Kiran are the mythics that seem best poised for gains.

WoTC also posted a story about the Inspiring Statuary deck that didn’t end up played that might be of interest to folks who spec’d too early on it.

Join me bright and early tomorrow for Day 2 coverage of Pro Tour Aether Revolt!

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

The second stop of the 2016-2017 Pro Tour season finds Standard in a pretty weird spot. Fresh off an early winter Standard scene that was heavily warped by the presence of Emrakul, the Promised End, WOTC elected to ban the Eldrazi titan along with Reflector Mage and Smuggler’s Copter in an attempt to hit the reset button and open up the field.

Unfortunately, the printing of Felidar Guardian in Aether Revolt introduced a Splinter Twin style combo to the format alongside the previously ignored Saheeli Rai, and now the format is warping alongside the combo and the GB aggro and delirium decks that seem best suited to keep pace with it.

Over in Dublin, Ireland, the best Magic players in the world have been stealth testing to answer a pressing question: facing down one of the most dangerous Standard combo decks in recent memory, can a foil be found that still has game against the rest of the field?

With over $250,000 USD on the line, and a cool $40,000 for the champ, players angling for the Top 8 will need to be both lucky and good while they pray their team has both read and answered the meta-game correctly. Taking a look at the results from the first two major Star City Games Standard tournaments including Aether Revolt, the Top 8 field has been more or less evenly dominated by GB and Jeskai Combo decks.

So far, dark horse decks striving to break out might include any of the following shells that have put up a smattering of relevant results:

• Jeskai Control
• W/R Humans
• B/R Aggro
• Temur Eldrazi
• G/W Tokens
• Aetherflux Reservoir Combo

As per usual, it is worth noting that the Pro Tour currently requires that players succeed in a mixed schedule of booster draft (AER – AER – KLD) and Standard play with 3 rounds of draft Friday morning Ireland time, followed by 5 rounds of Standard starting around 8am EST/5am PST, Friday.

Given the European time zone of this tournament, early morning speculation has the potential to be more successful than usual here.

Will any of the pros find a way to unlock a new archetype with game against the known field? Will a fringe deck from the early weeks of the format suddenly end up perfectly positioned to take off? Will there be a chance to get in on a must-have card that shows early promise or will the hype train leave the bandwagon speculators out in the cold without enough buyers come Monday morning?

Cards to Watch

Complicating matters this weekend is the fact that WoTC has announced that bannings can now take place at the release of a new set and five weeks later. As such, investing in cards that are most heavily played in the Saheeli Rai combo decks (including Saheeli herself) is potentially very risky. A top 8 dominated by the combo could easily get Felidar Guardian banned and result in Saheeli plunging back down towards $5. This scenario should be predisposing the financially minded to pursue cards that are likely to be in high demand with or without the Saheeli decks in the format, and especially cards that are useful in a variety of deck shells.

Here are a few of the interesting cards that seem like they should be on our radar this weekend:

Saheeli Rai: Too good for Standard?

Saheeli Rai + Felidar Guardian is the pivot point for the entire format at present and anyone that can’t figure out how to beat it consistently this weekend might as well join the crowd and field some version of the deck. Both Jeskai and 4-Color builds have been doing well, with a green splash being put to good use to help find combo pieces via Oath of Nissa, ramp with Servant of the Conduit or grind value with Rogue Refiner.

So far I am finding it hard to believe that any of the pro teams will find a brand new deck that is so good against both the combo and the rest of the field that it dominates the Top 8 from nowhere. Instead I predict a Top 8 with 2-3 versions of Saheeli Combo, 2-3 versions of GB decks, 2-3 sggro decks and a perhaps a random Tier 2 deck that slipped past the ramparts. If the combo decks field 5+ versions in the Top 8, the clock for a banning will be counting down and Saheeli will likely tank as players anticipate an imminent banning. The ideal scenario for the risk takes among us is that the deck only fields 1-2 copies in the Top 8, marking it as strong, but not overwhelming and potentially allowing for some upward price motion. Once the near term ban decisions are made, another spike could be possible as well. Having already gotten in at $5 and out at $20 on this card, I’m steering well clear of this uncertainty, but do as you will.

Current Price: $18
Predicted Price Monday: $15
Odds to Top 8: 1 to 4

Torrential Gearhulk: Best card in the format?

Sure, Saheeli Rai may be hogging the spotlight, but a compelling argument can be made that beyond the combo, it’s the blue artifact creature that best defines this format. Showing up in both combo and control Jeskai variants,  Torrential Gearhulk provides tremendous value in the late game. A typical sequence might involve flashing in the ‘hulk to block and kill a threat, while flashing back an instant to kill another threat, stop an opposing combo turn, draw some cards or simply close out the game on the back of a burn spell.

This card is even seeing fringe play in Modern and I would be stunned if it didn’t make the Top 8 of this tournament. Often played as a 3 or 4 of, this ubiquitous mythic is highly unlikely to get banned in a few weeks, and could easily end up over $30 at the end of the weekend. Even if that doesn’t happen, the card has at least a year to spike again, and constitutes my top pick for the fall set mythic most likely to hit that number before rotation.  There isn’t a lot of meat left on this bone, but a playset for $88 could end up being outed at $120 minus fees, or about $105, for a $17 gain. Not amazing, but you could make worse decisions.

Current Price: $22
Predicted Price Monday: $26-28 (on a strong Top 8 presence)
Odds to Top 8: 1 to 4

Verdurous Gearhulk

GB aggro and delirium decks make up 20-30% of the metagame heading into this weekend, and nearly all of those decks are running multiple copies of the second most powerful gearhulk. In coordination with Rishkar, Peema Renegade, Winding Constrictor and Walking Ballista, Verdurous Gearhulk offers ratchets up the shenanigans level on +1/+1 counters to new heights in Standard. With a supporting cast this deep on deck for the next 18 months, there is a decent chance that additional role players will appear in forthcoming sets and keep the beefiest construct in demand for the duration of it’s time in Standard. Currently priced about $6 less than his blue brethren, and with a much lower chance of being impacted negatively by a fresh round of bannings, I think that picking up a couple of play sets of this card could be in order.

Current Price: $16
Predicted Price Monday: $22+ (on a strong Top 8 presence)
Odds to Top 8: 1 to 3

Aetherworks Marvel: Dead For Good or Amonkhet Ready

Without Emrakul coming into play on Turn 5, and facing down the trigger countering abilities of Disallow with blue decks doing well, Aetherworks Marvel seems to be back on the shelf waiting to get broken all over again. I have to assume that the pros are at least attempting to make this happen, since they’re all too familiar with the power potential, but even if they don’t find it this cycle, there are several more sets forthcoming that might put this back in the spotlight in 2017. Heck, a great new Nicol Bolas planeswalker and a good discard spell might be enough to get this back in play alongside Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger. I’m not moving back in yet, but I’ll be ready to pull the trigger as soon as someone gives me a good reason.

I’ll leave it up to you to decide if this 5-0 Temur Marvel deck from yesterday is reason enough.

Current Price: $3.50
Predicted Price Monday: $3
Odds to Top 8: 10 to 1

Metalwork Colossus: Stuck at Tier 2?

Numerous versions of the Metalwork deck have put up decent results since the fall, but the deck has so far failed to find a configuration that can consistently lay claim to Tier 1 status. Between vehicles, Sanctum of Ugin and numerous value artifacts, these decks can pull together some pretty explosive turns, and I would love to see a fresh take on this archetype make it’s way to the top tables and give this card a reason to break $5 and set up some decent action for the folks who got in closer to $1.

Current Price: $2
Predicted Price Monday: $2
Odds to Top 8: 5 to 1

Inspiring Statuary: First to Spike

The first buyout of the weekend belongs to this oft-overlooked artifact, and either the pros are feeling confidant about a rogue deck choice or someone decided to go deep indeed. If the deck is real, it likely involves Aetherflux Reservoir, Paradoxical Outcome, Crush of Tentacles (a $2 mythic!) and a poor man’s storm combo in Standard that was briefly seen on camera at SCG Richmond last weekend. Something nutty with Paradox Engine (currently at $7) could also be a thing. If one or more pro teams have actually built a finely tuned killing machine around this card and they manage to Top 8 with it, the current spike may hold for long enough to get back out, but it’s much more likely that someone is going to get stuck holding a lot of $2 rares without buyers. I’m happy to stay out of this and play it safe, as peak supply for Aether Revolt is still weeks away and anything over $2 for a rare is going to be tough to make money on.

Current Price: $4 ($1 this morning)
Monday Price: $2
Odds to Top 8: 6 to 1

Tezzeret’s Simulacrum: Sold Out?

I can barely find a copy of this card for sale anywhere in North America right now. Did the pros figure out a way to break this with Inspiring Statuary and Paradox Engine? Is Tezzeret, the Schemer going to end up a thing at $13? This would be big news if true and someone is certainly making a move here. Keep in mind that even though this card is labelled as an uncommon, it is only available in the Planeswalker sealed product, and it therefore effectively a mythic rare if it is suddenly needed as a four-of in a real deck. Could this be the biggest surprise of the weekend?

Herald of Anguish: Coming Out Party?

Here we have a 5/5 flyer that can potentially be cast cheaply, force your opponent to discard and kill small creatures at will. This bad boy demon was bought out early in Japan during preview season, but has yet to put up relevant results. Now down to $7, with deep inventory that’s only getting deeper, this weekend would be an amazing time for these to suddenly start doing work on camera and drive a hard spike to $15 that would probably fade on Day 2 when it’s pilot failed to ace their draft pod and got knocked out of the tournament. A long shot for sure, but solid profit potential if someone proves this card is real.

Current Price: $7
Monday Price: $6
Odds to Top 8: 20 to 1

Aether Hub: Most Popular Kid in the Class

Aether Hub is the most played non-basic land in Standard, and it’s not close. Unless Amonkhet provides some great new color fixing, this essential uncommon could end up pushing $4-5, but only if Standard play regains momentum at the local level and starts draining down inventory on what is currently a pretty deep stock. Blooming Marsh and Spirebluff Canal also have a chance to make you a few bucks/copy based on their current demand profile and their limited Modern play, though foils may be the better bet there.

Current Price: $2
Monday Price: $3
Odds to Top 8: 1 to 100 (ie inevitable)

Do you have an outsider pick for the tournament? Share it in the comments!

Stay tuned for round by round MTGFinance coverage of Pro Tour: Aether Revolt all weekend!

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.