All posts by James Chillcott

WEEKLY MTGPRICE.COM MOVERS: JAN 4TH/15

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By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Here’s your weekly update on what’s been shifting around in price in the world of paper Magic: The Gathering this week.

5 Winners of the Week

1. Whip of Erebos (Theros, Rare): $4.23 to $5.68 (+34%)

With Whip decks holding down the fort as one of the core pillars of the 2014-2015 winter Standard season, it’s no surprise that this central feature of the recursive mid-range decks has been sliding up. Given that the card was available for as little as $1.25 in late summer 2014, there was some solid profit potential to be realized here if you pushed your chips in on this powerful card ahead of the curve. With relatively little Theros being opened these days, it could perhaps top out at $7-8 in a best case scenario, but I’d be happy to get out now with the inevitable rotation decline on the horizon for early summer.

Format: Standard/EDH

Verdict: Sell

2. Sidisi, Brood Tyrant (khans of Tarkir, Mythic): $4.74 to $5.54 (+17%)

We’re not yet at peak supply yet for Khans of Tarkir staples, as the set is going to be drafted alongside Fate Reforged for a couple of months before being left behind in the wake of Dragons of Tarkir and Modern Masters (2015 Edition). As such, buying in now on this card may not be ideal, since a early summer lull is likely unless the graveyard decks keep putting up top table performances. That being said, I love the card in both foil and non-foil for the long term as it’s a great casual/EDH card with a unique effect and a palatable casting cost. I’ve been picking up quite a few copies in the $3 range along the way, looking to double up within the year on half the stock and hold the rest long term.

Format(s): Standard/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Hold

3. Shivan Reef (M15, Rare): $7.23 to $7.82 (+8%)

If Standard has proven to have a color combination of near infinite variation this fall and winter, it must be red, white and blue. Between the token, tempo and Jeskai Ascendancy combo variants, this oft-reprinted pain land has been in high demand and is on track to carry on the fine tradition of blue/red dual lands leading the pack on price. If you picked up copies last summer in the $3-4 range, now is a fine time to be trading out or selling off, as they are unlikely to move much higher before rotation.

Format(s): Standard/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Sell

4. Emrakul, The Aeons Torn (Rise of the Eldrazi, Mythic): $52.61 to $56.84 (+8%)

Don’t be fooled by the short-term variability. As a confirmed reprint for Modern Masters (2015 Edition), Emrakul should have nowhere to go but down. You’d be wise to exit on any copies you’re holding while you can.

Format(s): Modern/Legacy/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Sell

5. Lilianna Vess (M15, Mythic): $7.12 to $7.69 (+8%)

The lesser Lilianna is seeing occasional play out of Abzan mid-range decks as a 1-2 of aimed at generating additional card advantadge in the grindy world of mid-range deck on deck violence. She could top $8, but if you got in last summer around $4, or had older copies sitting around, go ahead and get out now while the getting is good since she’s unlikely to increase her presence in the metagame any further before rotating out again next fall and her multiple printings and midling power level make her a poor long term target.

Format(s): Standard/Casual/EDH

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Verdict: Sell

5 Top Losers of the Week

1. Coalition Relic (Future Sight, Rare): 6.19 to 4.99 (-19%)

Now normally Future Sight rares are a great place to go looking for cards that could explode in price, but the presence of Chromatic Lantern in the EDH scene and high chance of a further reprint of this lesser card put non-foil copies of Relic far down the list of interesting pickups. The recent downswing doesn’t seem to have a definite source, but I’d stay away just the same.

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Format(s): EDH/Casual

Verdict: Hold

2. Zurgo Helmsmasher (Khans of Tarkir, Mythic): $1.19 to $1.04 (-13%)

While his fellow Khan Narset is looking pretty tasty right about now, Zurgo isn’t getting enough love from any format to even consider jumping in. Just accept that he’s going to be hanging out in bulk bins and move on.

Format(s): Um, none.

Verdict: Sell/Trade

3. Omniscience (M13, Mythic): $10.75 to $9.50 (-12%)

This card on the other hand is chock full of broken potential and is really just waiting on a Top 8 showing or two to shift into high gear. It also needs to not see a reprint any time soon, but that’s looking unlikely given that notable reprints are largely about keeping Modern affordable or filling gaps in Standard at present and this card fills neither role. Because it’s already hovering around $10, it’s the kind of card I’m not into hunting until I see it do something drastic on camera, but be ready to pull the trigger fast if that ever happens.

Format(s): Modern/Legacy/EDH

Verdict: Hold

4. Sarkhan, The Dragonspeaker (Khans of Tarkir, Mythic) $16.59 to $15.17 (-9%)

If you’ve been holding copies of Sarkhan since the September 2014 pre-order period, you’ve already gone on quite the ride, with copies peaking in the mid $30’s before steadily declining to half that level due to softening Standard play and literal tons of product being opened. That being said, I’ve been starting to acquire copies under $13 where I can since I fully expect him to have a 2nd coming either due to dragon specific cards this spring or general scarcity next fall. It’s not a spec I plan to go really deep on, but I’ve got a few sets waiting for the bounce.

Verdict: Buy/Trade

5. Fulminator Mage (Shadowmoor, Rare) $41.12 to $38.86 (-5%)

Here’s another card waiting for an excuse to climb a bit more, likely in the form of the banning of treasure cruise and the general rebounding of the value of Jund strategies in Modern. This kind of land destruction isn’t something WOTC seems eager to reprint, but he could still show up in MM2 this summer and wreck all the lovely gains he’s made over the last few years up from as low as $6 in early 2013. If you don’t need your extras, leave some potential and risk on the table and reap the rewards of a sweet spec.

Verdict: Sell/Trade

Quick Hits:

  • January 19th, 2015 is the next Banned & Restricted list announcement and banning of any or all of the following could make big waves and open up new specs: Treasure Cruise, Dig Through Time, Jeskai Ascendancy, Birthing Pod. Getting rid of all of the above in Modern opens up the format a ton, and it’s possible Cruise gets the axe as far back as Legacy. I don’t want to be caught holding many copies of that card in foil, so I’ve been selling out, but the rest I’ve decided to risk. Make your call and get ready for the fallout.
  • Likely MM2 reprints aren’t falling nearly as fast as they should be and I think too many people are underestimating the print run this time around. Get out while you can…these aren’t cards you want to be holding come June.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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WEEKEND MTGPRICE.COM UPDATE: Dec 21/14

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Here’s your weekly update on what’s been shifting around in price in the world of paper Magic: The Gathering this week. This week, we’re mostly quiet on the movement front as folks hunker down for the holidays and dig into the holiday cube on MTGO:

5 Winners of the Week

1. Bloodline Keeper (Innistrad, Rare): $2.00 to $2.99 (+50%)

As far as I can tell this guy is moving up purely on Casual/EDH demand. As a double-sided card from a set not being included in Modern Masters (2015), it should be safe from reprint in the near future, but it’s hard to picture what drives it much higher from here.

Format: Casual/EDH

Verdict: Hold

2. Doomwake Giant (Journey Into Nyx, Rare): $1.37 to $2.04 (+49%)

With Sultai/Whip/Sidisi/Constellation decks all over the Standard metagame right now, and Jeskai and R/W token strategies often found on the opposite side of the table, Doomwake Giant plays a valuable role as a killer of little guys and a reliable blocker for all-stars like Fleecemane Lion and Siege Rhino. As a rare from a lesser opened set, there is a decent chance this guy hits $3-4 this winter if the Whip strategies continue to hold their position on the winner’s podium.  There’s no big play here, but you stashed some playsets away around $1, you might be able to trade out profitably pretty soon.

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Hold

3. Puresteel Paladin (New Phyrexia, Rare): $1.75 to $2.60 (+49%)

I have no idea where this boost is coming from given that a signaled metalcraft theme in Modern Masters (2015) opens the door for an imminent reprint and the card is seeing no play of note. Will be watching this in coming weeks to establish whether the bump is a statistical anomaly.

Format(s): EDH/Casual

Verdict: Hold

4. Fatestitcher (Shards of Alara, Uncommon): $2.42 to $3.35 (+38%)

From last week: “Fatestitcher shot up after showing up in Sam Black’s innovative update to the Jeskai Ascendancy combo deck in Modern at Worlds 2014 last weekend. It’s also showing up in Legacy. The card allows Ascendancy players to access the “untap a permanent” part of their combo without dipping into green for mana elves, immediately improving the consistency of the deck. Foils have also been on the move, jumping from $2 to $10 this week. There’s not much juice left here, but if you managed to snag some of those cheap foils, you should almost certainly be selling into the hype.”

Format(s): Modern/Legacy

Verdict: Sell

5. Jace Beleren (M11, Mythic): $7.53 to $8.89 (+18%)

The original Jace is still a great card at kitchen tables across the land and it’s starting to inch up just based on distance from the last printing. No reason to rush out and snap any up, but it’s a decent boost for trading purposes if it holds.

Format(s): Casual/EDH

Verdict: Hold

5 Top Losers of the Week

1. Xenagos, the Reveler (Theros, Mythic): 7.78 to 6.64 (-15%)

The downward pressure against Xenagos is strong with no presence in the Standard metagame at present and rotation looming next fall. Even still, last year’s all-star could still find a late rally if Fate Reforged or Dragons of Tarkir bring forward a newly minted G/R deck of note. This is a planeswalker to watch during the forthcoming previews season and the foils are already looking quite reasonable for future casual use.

Format(s): Standard/Casual

Verdict: Hold

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2. Mana Confluence (Journey into Nyx, Rare): $14.42 to $12.44 (-14%)

Sure, this lands sees play, but it doesn’t see nearly as much play as some speculators were hoping heading into the KTK release in late September. Your exit around $20 as has come and gone and is unlikely to return given the preponderance of pain lands being used in Standard to shore up relatively strong mana bases across the format. Mana Confluence is likely to float down further, settling in an $8-10 range by summer unless a truly innovative 4 or 5-color deck shows up in the metagame based on new cards released this winter.

Format(s): Standard/Casual

Verdict: Sell/Trade

3. Nissa, Worldwaker (M15, Mythic): $23.44 to $20.64 (-12%)

Nissa’s power is undeniable, but her position in the metagame has been shaky thus far and when she’s played she’s only played as a 1 or 2-of. As a result, we’re likely to see Nissa keep heading downwards. I’m out.

Format(s): Standard/Casual

Verdict: Sell/Trade

4. Kiora, the Crashing Wave $11.55 to $10.29 (-11%)

As I write this I’m watching Gerrard Fabiano with a 9/9 Kraken in play at the SCG Player’s Championship courtesy of the watery planeswalker, but the fact remains that Kiora is featured in the Duel Deck this winter. Along with her scant appearances in Standard at present, I’d expect for Kiora to find a floor around $7-8 over the next few months. Trade her away and revisit at rotation for some cheaper copies.

Verdict: Sell/Trade

5. Polukranos, World Eater (Theros, Rare) $8.66 to $7.73 (-11%)

This big bad hydra has definitely pulled his weight since his release in Fall 2013, but along with Xenagos he’s now mostly on the sidelines with the other G/R monsters cards waiting for a chance to jump back into the fray.  I’ll be holding my playset for personal use, but if you only want them for standard use, trading away is a solid move at this point unless Fate Reforged brings some goodies that push this back towards playability in standard.

Verdict: Sell/Trade

Quick Hits:

  • Shocklands are finally looking pretty sexy as mid-term speculative buys, having been relegated to shallow increases for the last couple of years, but facing a likely boost as attention turns to Modern in late may 2015 with the release of Modern Masters (2015).
  • With KTK cards at their natural end of year lows, cards like Wingmate Roc, Sarkhan, Dragonspeaker, Villainous Wealth, See the Unwritten and the fetchlands are all looking like solid buys at this point. Focus on the playable cards for solid gains, or get more speculative with the back benchers to go for the glory heading into the practically back-to-back set releases in late January and March 2015.
  • If Treasure Cruise does indeed get banned next month, here are some cards I’d like to be holding: Birthing Pod, Restoration Angel, Lilianna of the Veil, Geist of Saint Traft.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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WEEKEND MTGPRICE UPDATE: DEC 12/14

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Here’s your weekly update on what’s been shifting around in price in the world of paper Magic: The Gathering this week. This week, we’re staring at a set of subtle shifts as we hit the seasonal lows for KTK rares and mythics:

5 Winners of the Week

1. Fatestitcher (Shards of Alara, Uncommon): $1.33 to $2.42 (+82%)

Fatestitcher shot up after showing up in Sam Black’s innovative update to the Jeskai Ascendancy combo deck in Modern at Worlds 2014 last weekend. It’s also showing up in Legacy. The card allows Ascendancy players to access the “untap a permanent” part of their combo without dipping into green for mana elves, immediately improving the consistency of the deck. Foils have also been on the move, jumping from $2 to $10 this week. There’s not much juice left here, but if you managed to snag some of those cheap foils, you should almost certainly be selling into the hype.

Format(s): Modern/Legacy

Verdict: Sell 

2. Whip of Erebos (Theros, Rare): $3.15 to $3.73 (+18%)

Whip decks are a major component of the vibrant Standard metagame at present, and good showings at several big tournaments lately have demonstrated the importance of the Whip as a multiple in any deck trying to harness this strategy alongside Sidisi and company. There isn’t much upside left here, with the max price on Whip likely being somewhere in the $5-6 range given upcoming rotation and a lack of play in older formats.

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Sell

3. Soul of Theros (M15, Mythic): $1.58 to $1.81 (+15%)

This powerful late game card is enjoying a small boost after showing up in the winning mid-range Abzan Standard deck at GP Santiago as a 3-of alongside 3 Hornet Queens for massive late game value. It will need some more big finishes and wider adoption, preferably across multiple decks, to keep moving up, but as a “small set” mythic, Soul of Theros has the potential to hit $5 in the right metagame. It also has longer term casual/EDH applications though a double-up is only likely via Standard success this winter/spring.

Format(s): Standard/Casual

Verdict: Hold/Buy

4. Sliver Hive (M15, Rare): $1.79 to $2.02 (+13%)

The slight bump in price here is purely a result of the increasing casual demand for Slivers in the face of additional additions to the tribe in M15 and some fringe play in Legacy via Counter-Slivers. I’m pretty deep on these, with about 50 copies in the long-term box, as I see it as an easy $5-6 card within a couple of years. Also see foils of Sliver Hivelord if you’re investing in the tribe.

Format(s): Casual/Legacy

Verdict: Buy/Hold

5. Counterbalance (Coldsnap, Rare): $9.94 to $10.80 (+9%)

Miracles continues to put up solid results in Legacy and this pillar of the deck is slowing building value on the low possibility of reprinting and the deck’s lack of ban-able cards. It’s not a good spec target however,  mostly due to limited applications in other formats and it’s usage in but a single deck in competitive play.

Format(s): Legacy

Verdict: Hold

 

5 Top Losers of the Week

1. Glittering Wish (Future Sight, Rare): $16.40 to $13.53 (-18%)

Glittering Wish earned a large price bump this fall when it showed up in early Jeskai Ascendancy builds in Modern. With the deck now moving away from green mana, Wish is seeing less demand. It’s still on my radar as a potential gainer, as it’s unlikely to see a reprint in MM2 and is the kind of card that just gets better as more targets and decks appear. That being said, I’ve been selling into the hype as early as eight weeks ago, with the margins from the recently sub-$5 copies being too good to get greedy on.

Format(s): Modern/Legacy

Verdict: Sell

2. Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker (KTK, Mythic): $19.95 to $17.08 (-14%)

Nothing against the big guy. He’s putting up great numbers, winning tourneys and showing up in plenty of Top 8’s. The simple fact remains that Khans of Tarkir has been opened a ton, and we’re now in the December part of the season where fall standard cards hit their lows. I’ve been scooping these up anywhere I find them under $15, on the bet that Sarkhan finds a $25+ spike somewhere in the next year, possibly in September 2015. Even if you don’t cash them out later, there are few better places to stash some trade value.

Format(s): Standard/Casual

Verdict: Buy/Hold

 

3. Wurmcoil Engine (Scars of Mirrodin, Mythic): $15.57 to $13.44 (-14%)

This card was headed up until it’s recent Commander 2014 reprinting, and I’d stay away until it finds a final bottom in the $10 range later this spring.

Format(s): Modern/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Sell/Trade

 

4. Wingmate Roc (KTK, Mythic) 11.27 to 10.25 (-9%)

As with Sarkhan, the flying wonder twins are only getting more tempting, as copies have been ending south of $10 on Ebay and TCGPlayer lately, and could easily top $15-20 by fall 2015, with two quick hit winter sets, followed quickly by MM2 in late May.

Verdict: Hold/Buy

 

5. Kozilek, Butcher of Truth (Rise of the Eldrazi, Mythic) $56.46 to $52.82 (-6%)

If you see an Eldrazi coming, you are best off running as fast as possible in the opposite direction. Likewise, if you see Modern Masters 2 (2015 Edition) coming in May, and it’s already confirmed to include Eldrazi (via Emrakul), getting out of the big lugs before reprints kill their value is also a pretty great idea.

Verdict: Sell

Quick Hits:

  • Greg Hatch showed up to the Legacy SCG Invitational this weekend with an ultra-sexy new combo deck making use of Artificer’s Intuition, Altar of the Brood, Salvage Titan, Locket of Yesterday’s, Divining Top and other cheap artifacts to force opponent’s to draw their entire deck in a hurry. Related foils have been experiencing upward pressure despite the deck only amassing an average record. That being said, many of these cards have possible bright futures as similar combos are refined.
  • With MM2 (2015 Edition) confirmed, there are plenty of cards you should likely be dumping (Mox Opal, Emrakul, Phyrexian Obliterator, Goblin Guide) and others that you are now safe to pursue (Snapcaster Mage, Restoration Angel, Cavern of Souls, Abrupt Decay).

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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Magic the Gathering Black Friday Roundup 2014

by James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Hey all,

While many of you are gnawing on a turkey leg, there are some pretty sweet deals going down on Magic: The Gathering cards, sealed product and accessories as part of the growing madness that is Black Friday.

Here’s a quick overview of some of the deals to keep an eye out for, including sales already available and some items that go on sale Thursday at midnight. Not surprisingly all of this action is online so fire up your Paypal accounts and get your credit cards ready to go Aggressive Mining for value. (Don’t be surprised if these are sold out by the time you get there….after all, the race is on!)

TrollandToad

TrollandToad.com has added some solid deals to their Black Friday selection today:

StarCityGames.com

SCG is supposedly going to be offering 15-50% off a wide array of products starting on the 29th. Here are some sample offers currently up for sale:

Miniature Market

You might not have these guys on your radar since they don’t sell singles, but this site has some great deal so sealed product worth jumping on, all of which are already live:

modern deck

At just $1.78/pack, the Magic 2013 booster box is cheap draft fodder and the 2014 Event Deck is basically free when you consider it has a Stomping Grounds in it. The Theros Holiday Gift Box is nothing special, but it’s a solid box for holding your collection for free given that it comes with 4 packs.

The Wrath of Mortals Event Deck was widely panned but with 3x Young Pyromancer, Anger of the Gods, Aetherling, Battlefield Thaumaturge, Mizzium Mortars, Steam Augury and Chandra’s Pheonix, the value is there at just $8. Conspiracy was all the rage for four weeks last summer and then forgotten, but it’s a pretty excellent multi-player draft format and the chance at some very pricy foils makes these boxes one of the better long term holds in booster land at $72.

The Modern Event Deck was a huge disappointment to the people hoping for some truly serious reprints like Bitterblossom or Lilianna, but in truth, the set boasts at least $80-90 in easy value and at $40 it’s a snap buy IMHO. Here’s a rundown of just some of the relevant cards totaling $85 in case you’re still on the fence:

  • 1 Sword of Feast and Famine: $10
  • 1 Elspeth, Knight-Errant: $10
  • 3 Path to Exile: $15 total
  • 3 Kataki, War’s Wage: $6 total
  • 2 Dismember: $4 total
  • 4 Windbrisk Heights: $8 total
  • 2 Inquisition of Kozilek: $10 total
  • 2 City of Brass: $6 total
  • 4 Caves of Koilos: $10 total
  • 4 Isolated Chapel: $6 total

As for the Magic 2015 Clash pack I’ve been milking those at $20 for months, selling the included Courser of Kruphix for $15 and holding Foil Alternate Art Prophet of Kruphix, Prognostic Sphinx and Temple of Mystery, and a Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx along with a bunch of solid uncommons for future value/causal deck fodder.

ABUGames

ABUGames has just a handful of deals going down starting Thursday at midnight, and the most tempting are these two:

JAPANJACDECK1
Those of us who bought up sets of C13 around $125-150 last year are looking pretty silly right about now. Plenty of places are dumping them now around $120-125, and this $89.99 deal is sure to sell out given that this puts the decks at just $18 each and gives you immediate access to copies of Toxic Deluge and True-Name Nemesis, while providing some decent long term gain potential in the Prosh and Olora decks should you choose not to bust ’em.

The Jace vs. Chandra deck is several years old and typically sought after in the $30-40 range due to the anime inspired art for the Planeswalkers, so it’s likely a snap buy even if just as trade fodder.

CoolStuffInc.

CoolStuffInc. isn’t typically known for their sweet sales, but they’ve got some solid deals on both singles and sealed product this year for Black Friday.

magic-unlim-volcanic-island

 

Here’s a sampler of the better deals:

Singles

Sealed Product

ChannelFireball.com

This sale is live as the “End of the Year Sale”. The sealed product doesn’t boast much in the way of excitement, but there are some fairly tasty mid/long range specs at good prices in the KTK singles section, including:

Of these options, I love Villainous Wealth at a quarter, Narset at $1.25 and See the Unwritten at $1.99 as cards that could easily double or triple in price on new cards and/or metagame shifts, not to mention long term casual appeal to set the floor. Clever Impersonator and Hooded Hydra are both undervalued mythics, with Hydra having the biggest upside so far. There’s also a good chance that both Wingmate Roc and Seeker of the Way can be buylisted for more than this price before they rotate out.

TCGPlayer.com

Though TCGPlayer claims to have a Black Friday sale going on, it’s unclear what facts justify their advertising exclaiming “the year’s lowest prices on Magic!”. I was unable to uncover pricing that was anything but ordinary, but ping me if any of you know different.

CapeFearGames

Though there’s nothing specific on their site to confirm it, CapeFearGames apparantly has a 15% off coupon usable all week. Try using “cyberweek”.

Face2Face Games

Canadian stalwart MTG retailer Face2Face Games is running a 15% off sale Thurs at midnight through Sunday. With the fact that most Canadian sites price to match US pricing, this boosts your potential discount from the US to as much as 30%. With $2.50 shipping to the US, this may be one of the better options. Coupon code should be: “BLACKFRIDAY2014”.

 

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

 

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