All posts by Jared Yost

Jared is longtime Magic player who has been slinging cardboard since Odyssey block (when creatures came into play). He was introduced to the financial side of Magic during Return to Ravnica block and hasn't looked back since. He is a resident of the VA area located just outside of DC. His favorite MTG formats include Limited, Legacy, and Commander - preferably making creature tokens while playing those formats.

Tarkir Block Spread Analysis

This week I’m going to take a look at the spreads on top cards from Tarkir block to see if there are any interesting trends that should be noted, especially since Magic Origins has been released.

 

Some background on spreads for the unfamiliar (reposted from an older article of mine):

 

Getting the Spread – To calculate the spread, you calculate the percentage difference between a store’s buylist price and the fair trade price of that same card. The smaller the spread value the more demand a store, or several stores, is driving for a particular card. Examples to demonstrate my point (prices out of date in calc):

 

Flooded StrandFair Trade Price – $19.99Best Buylist Price – $14.25Spread = 1-($14.25/$19.99)28.71% Sarkhan, the DragonspeakerFair Trade Price – $13.29Best Buylist Price – $7.40Spread = 1-($7.40/$13.29)44.32%

 

Negative Spread – There are two types of negative spread, Natural Arbitrage and Market Force Arbitrage. Natural arbitrage is the difference between one store’s demand of a card compared to another store’s demand. Market force arbitrage is when the market value of a card’s price is lower than a specific store’s buylist. Market force arbitrage lasts shortly but can be more profitable. Natural arbitrage is something I’m more inclined to analyze because this gives us enough time to pick up as many copies as we’re willing to invest in a card before the market corrects itself on the price. Market force arbitrage might make great sound bites on Twitter, but natural arbitrage is going to give you the most value over time.

Khans of Tarkir

 

Mythic Spreads

 

Name Rarity Fair Ebay CFB ABU StrikeZone CFB Spread ABU Spread StrikeZone Spread
Sorin, Solemn Visitor M $8.09 $5.99 $3.50 $4.30 $5.30 56.74% 46.85% 34.49%
Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker M $4.85 $4.25 $1.50 $1.70 $2.62 69.07% 64.95% 45.98%
Anafenza, the Foremost M $3.91 $3.00 $1.00 $1.56 $0.00 74.42% 60.10% 100.00%
See the Unwritten M $3.00 $3.10 $1.00 $1.07 $1.35 66.67% 64.33% 55.00%
Wingmate Roc M $2.85 $3.00 $0.50 $1.07 $0.00 82.46% 62.46% 100.00%
Clever Impersonator M $2.48 $2.29 $0.50 $1.13 $1.10 79.84% 54.44% 55.65%
Sidisi, Brood Tyrant M $1.92 $1.22 $0.25 $0.54 $0.00 86.98% 71.88% 100.00%
Ashcloud Phoenix M $1.36 $1.29 $0.25 $0.40 $0.00 81.62% 70.59% 100.00%
Surrak Dragonclaw M $1.36 $0.99 $0.25 $0.48 $0.56 81.62% 64.71% 58.82%
Hooded Hydra M $1.30 $1.49 $0.25 $0.63 $0.60 80.77% 51.54% 53.85%
Narset, Enlightened Master M $1.00 $1.06 $0.25 $0.28 $0.47 75.00% 72.00% 53.00%
Pearl Lake Ancient M $0.98 $0.99 $0.00 $0.26 $0.00 100.00% 73.47% 100.00%
Zurgo Helmsmasher M $0.93 $0.79 $0.00 $0.21 100.00% 77.42%
Empty the Pits M $0.85 $0.79 $0.00 $0.23 $0.00 100.00% 72.94% 100.00%
Ugin’s Nexus M $0.84 $1.00 $0.00 $0.19 $0.26 100.00% 77.38% 69.05%

Chart (click to view higher res)

Screen Shot 2015-07-18 at 2.13.52 PM

Rare Spreads

 

Name Rarity Fair Ebay CFB ABU StrikeZone CFB Spread ABU Spread StrikeZone Spread
Polluted Delta R $18.84 $14.99 $12.00 $10.00 36.31% 46.92%
Flooded Strand R $16.19 $12.50 $10.00 $9.77 $9.00 38.23% 39.65% 44.41%
Wooded Foothills R $15.11 $11.75 $8.00 $8.00 47.05% 47.05%
Windswept Heath R $14.02 $11.00 $7.00 $8.79 $8.00 50.07% 37.30% 42.94%
Bloodstained Mire R $11.86 $8.50 $7.00 $6.50 40.98% 45.19%
Dig Through Time R $5.83 $3.49 $3.00 $3.15 $0.00 48.54% 45.97% 100.00%
Siege Rhino R $4.27 $3.00 $1.00 $2.16 $0.00 76.58% 49.41% 100.00%
Rattleclaw Mystic R $1.87 $1.79 $0.25 $0.69 $0.50 86.63% 63.10% 73.26%
Bloodsoaked Champion R $1.75 $0.99 $0.25 $0.60 $0.79 85.71% 65.71% 54.86%
Hardened Scales R $1.14 $0.99 $0.10 $0.50 $0.31 91.23% 56.14% 72.81%
End Hostilities R $1.01 $0.99 $0.10 $0.15 $0.43 90.10% 85.15% 57.43%
Utter End R $0.96 $0.99 $0.10 $0.34 $0.52 89.58% 64.58% 45.83%
Jeskai Ascendancy R $0.88 $0.99 $0.10 $0.26 $0.00 88.64% 70.45% 100.00%
Rakshasa Deathdealer R $0.86 $0.99 $0.10 $0.24 $0.00 88.37% 72.09% 100.00%
Crackling Doom R $0.81 $0.99 $0.10 $0.22 $0.27 87.65% 72.84% 66.67%
Mantis Rider R $0.80 $0.99 $0.10 $0.23 $0.27 87.50% 71.25% 66.25%
Crater’s Claws R $0.66 $0.99 $0.00 $0.18 $0.25 100.00% 72.73% 62.12%
Altar of the Brood R $0.61 $1.00 $0.00 $0.06 $0.18 100.00% 90.16% 70.49%
Deflecting Palm R $0.59 $0.99 $0.10 $0.17 $0.00 83.05% 71.19% 100.00%
Savage Knuckleblade R $0.53 $0.99 $0.00 $0.10 $0.28 100.00% 81.13% 47.17%

Chart

Screen Shot 2015-07-18 at 2.30.24 PM

 

 

Notes

 

When looking at the mythics, I am shocked at the amount that are $2 or less retail. When looking at buylist prices the highest buylist offering on any of the mythics from Khans is Sorin, Solemn Visitor at $5. This tells me that there is definitely potential in the mythics from Khans to spike once Theros rotates from Standard. The cheaper mythics are starting to get fairly close to buylist, which is is a good time to speculate.

 

The mythics have a fairly linear decline in buylist prices the cheaper they get in retail, which means that right now the retail price of the mythics reflects their actual demand in Standard. Many of the mythics have power but just haven’t found a home in a deck yet. Cards like Wingmate Roc have previously shown that they can be excellent in Standard however the spread is still rather high. Many financiers, including myself, believe in the power of See the Unwritten due to the announcement of Battle of Zendikar and the expected spike in price once massive Eldrazi are revealed and players want to start brewing with the card.

 

When looking at the rares the spreads become much more obvious for deciding which cards are going to be in demand in the next Standard. All of the fetchlands have the lowest spreads, which is expected considering their eternal applications in addition to being in heavy demand in Standard. I think we can say based on these numbers that besides Windswept Heath (which just received a clash pack printing) that the fetchlands aren’t going down in price anymore. Pick up your copies now if you want them at their cheapest.

 

The next five rares that have the lowest spreads in general are Dig Through Time, Siege Rhino, Rattleclaw Mystic, Bloodsoaked Champion, and Hardened Scales. The first three cards are going to be great in post-Theros Standard however Bloodsoaked Champion and Hardened Scales is an interesting to see in the top five lowest spreads. Both cards must have significant casual demand. Hardened Scales is a sleeper favorite among many in the mtgfinance community for being a great long term pickup. Unfortunately, Bloodsoaked Champion had an event deck printing so the price cap is going to low on that guy moving forward.

 

Fate Reforged

 

Mythic Spreads

 

Name Rarity Fair Ebay CFB ABU StrikeZone CFB Spread ABU Spread StrikeZone Spread
Ugin, the Spirit Dragon M $27.09 $24.49 $15.00 $15.55 $0.00 44.63% 42.60% 100.00%
Monastery Mentor M $14.98 $11.79 $8.00 $8.82 46.60% 41.12%
Soulfire Grand Master M $9.07 $7.06 $5.00 $3.58 $5.85 44.87% 60.53% 35.50%
Whisperwood Elemental M $6.98 $5.00 $2.50 $2.37 $0.00 64.18% 66.05% 100.00%
Warden of the First Tree M $3.77 $3.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.18 73.47% 60.21% 42.18%
Brutal Hordechief M $2.77 $1.99 $0.50 $1.05 $0.00 81.95% 62.09% 100.00%
Shaman of the Great Hunt M $2.05 $1.89 $0.25 $0.77 $0.00 87.80% 62.44% 100.00%
Temporal Trespass M $1.45 $1.45 $0.25 $0.34 $0.00 82.76% 76.55% 100.00%
Torrent Elemental M $1.19 $1.19 $0.25 $0.32 $0.76 78.99% 73.11% 36.13%
Ghastly Conscription M $0.82 $0.99 $0.00 $0.19 $0.21 100.00% 76.83% 74.39%

 

Chart (click to view higher res)

Screen Shot 2015-07-18 at 2.13.32 PM

 

 

Rare Spreads

 

Name Rarity Fair Ebay CFB ABU StrikeZone CFB Spread ABU Spread StrikeZone Spread
Tasigur, the Golden Fang R $8.50 $6.99 $5.00 $4.78 $4.61 41.18% 43.76% 45.76%
Crux of Fate R $2.49 $1.99 $0.50 $0.69 $0.00 79.92% 72.29% 100.00%
Mardu Strike Leader R $1.37 $0.99 $0.10 $0.31 $0.49 92.70% 77.37% 64.23%
Outpost Siege R $1.00 $0.99 $0.10 $0.26 $0.00 90.00% 74.00% 100.00%
Silumgar, the Drifting Death R $0.93 $1.37 $0.10 $0.27 $0.00 89.25% 70.97% 100.00%
Mastery of the Unseen R $0.75 $0.99 $0.10 $0.09 $0.00 86.67% 88.00% 100.00%
Citadel Siege R $0.65 $0.99 $0.10 $0.19 $0.25 84.62% 70.77% 61.54%
Flamewake Phoenix R $0.64 $1.00 $0.10 $0.10 $0.00 84.38% 84.38% 100.00%
Crucible of the Spirit Dragon R $0.58 $1.00 $0.00 $0.17 $0.17 100.00% 70.69% 70.69%
Kolaghan, the Storm’s Fury R $0.58 $1.00 $0.10 $0.10 $0.21 82.76% 82.76% 63.79%
Atarka, World Render R $0.55 $1.00 $0.10 $0.10 $0.28 81.82% 81.82% 49.09%
Frontier Siege R $0.54 $0.99 $0.00 $0.08 $0.00 100.00% 85.19% 100.00%
Soulflayer R $0.49 $0.99 $0.00 $0.10 $0.00 100.00% 79.59% 100.00%
Dromoka, the Eternal R $0.47 $1.00 $0.00 $0.00 100.00% 100.00%
Alesha, Who Smiles at Death R $0.45 $0.99 $0.10 $0.05 $0.00 77.78% 88.89% 100.00%
Monastery Siege R $0.45 $1.00 $0.00 $0.24 $0.16 100.00% 46.67% 64.44%

 

Chart

Screen Shot 2015-07-18 at 2.30.46 PM

 

 

Notes

 

While Khans had a more defined linear decline in rare prices, Fate Reforged has a much more drastic decline in mythic prices with Ugin leading the pack as one of the most expensive mythics in Standard. Fate Reforged mythic prices more accurately represent what I expect when looking at mythics since more than half of them have a fair trade price above $2. Spreads on Ugin, Monastery Mentor, and Soulfire Grand Master are all favorable right now across large retailers. Whisperwood Elemental has a higher spread however it could still be a great card moving into the post-Theros Standard. Cards with higher spreads that could still see a reasonable amount of play include Warden of the First Tree, Brutal Hordechief, and Shaman of the Great Hunt though depending on how Standard shakes out these could also be misses based on current store demand.

 

Besides Tasigur, all of the rares in Fate Reforged have insanely high spreads right now. Tasigur is starting to climb up in price so like Khans fetches now is the time to get in on cheap Tasigurs. Many rares are super cheap though like Mastery of the Unseen. Like Khans mythics, there seems to be potential in the rares of Fate Reforged since so many of them are below $1.

 

Dragons of Tarkir

 

Mythic Spreads

 

Name Rarity Fair Ebay CFB ABU StrikeZone CFB Spread ABU Spread StrikeZone Spread
Deathmist Raptor M $23.57 $0.00 $12.00 $13.83 $0.00 49.09% 41.32% 100.00%
Dragonlord Ojutai M $18.45 $0.00 $10.00 $7.04 $12.13 45.80% 61.84% 34.25%
Dragonlord Atarka M $10.41 $0.00 $5.00 $5.71 $6.07 51.97% 45.15% 41.69%
Narset Transcendent M $10.02 $0.00 $4.00 $4.43 $0.00 60.08% 55.79% 100.00%
Dragonlord Dromoka M $7.99 $0.00 $3.50 $4.62 $5.76 56.20% 42.18% 27.91%
Sarkhan Unbroken M $7.59 $7.99 $3.50 $4.71 $4.15 53.89% 37.94% 45.32%
Dragonlord Silumgar M $7.19 $0.00 $2.00 $3.57 $0.00 72.18% 50.35% 100.00%
Dragonlord Kolaghan M $3.80 $0.00 $2.26 $0.00 40.53% 100.00%
Shaman of Forgotten Ways M $2.46 $0.00 $0.50 $1.22 $1.08 79.67% 50.41% 56.10%
Dragon Whisperer M $2.44 $0.00 $0.50 $1.09 $0.00 79.51% 55.33% 100.00%
Shorecrasher Elemental M $2.44 $0.00 $0.50 $0.62 $0.00 79.51% 74.59% 100.00%
Ojutai Exemplars M $2.25 $0.00 $0.25 $0.61 $0.00 88.89% 72.89% 100.00%
Risen Executioner M $2.19 $0.00 $0.25 $0.93 $0.92 88.58% 57.53% 57.99%
Descent of the Dragons M $1.64 $0.00 $0.25 $0.84 $0.89 84.76% 48.78% 45.73%
Clone Legion M $0.87 $0.00 $0.00 $0.28 $0.31 100.00% 67.82% 64.37%

 

Chart (click to view higher res)

Screen Shot 2015-07-18 at 2.16.13 PM

Rare Spreads

 

Name Rarity Fair Ebay CFB ABU StrikeZone CFB Spread ABU Spread StrikeZone Spread
Collected Company R $18.31 $0.00 $10.00 $8.18 45.39% 55.32%
Kolaghan’s Command R $9.31 $0.00 $6.00 $5.49 35.55% 41.03%
Den Protector R $6.80 $0.00 $3.50 $3.50 $0.00 48.53% 48.53% 100.00%
Atarka’s Command R $6.51 $0.00 $3.50 $3.61 $4.15 46.24% 44.55% 36.25%
Thunderbreak Regent R $6.05 $0.00 $2.00 $2.97 $0.00 66.94% 50.91% 100.00%
Dromoka’s Command R $5.98 $0.00 $3.00 $3.20 $0.00 49.83% 46.49% 100.00%
Haven of the Spirit Dragon R $4.34 $0.00 $1.50 $2.12 $2.37 65.44% 51.15% 45.39%
Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit R $2.45 $0.00 $0.50 $1.10 79.59% 55.10%
Secure the Wastes R $2.45 $0.00 $0.50 $1.09 $1.17 79.59% 55.51% 52.24%
Zurgo Bellstriker R $2.28 $0.00 $0.50 $0.82 $0.00 78.07% 64.04% 100.00%
Avatar of the Resolute R $1.75 $0.00 $0.50 $0.95 $0.85 71.43% 45.71% 51.43%
Icefall Regent R $1.63 $0.00 $0.25 $0.57 $0.00 84.66% 65.03% 100.00%
Sidisi, Undead Vizier R $1.37 $0.00 $0.25 $0.57 $0.00 81.75% 58.39% 100.00%
Stratus Dancer R $1.23 $0.00 $0.25 $0.46 $0.31 79.67% 62.60% 74.80%
Ojutai’s Command R $1.22 $0.00 $0.25 $0.35 $0.37 79.51% 71.31% 69.67%
Surrak, the Hunt Caller R $1.02 $0.00 $0.10 $0.26 $0.00 90.20% 74.51% 100.00%
Hidden Dragonslayer R $0.86 $0.00 $0.10 $0.24 $0.00 88.37% 72.09% 100.00%
Myth Realized R $0.76 $0.00 $0.00 $0.19 $0.42 100.00% 75.00% 44.74%
Arashin Foremost R $0.67 $0.00 $0.10 $0.19 $0.00 85.07% 71.64% 100.00%
Assault Formation R $0.67 $0.00 $0.10 $0.25 $0.31 85.07% 62.69% 53.73%
Dragon Tempest R $0.64 $0.00 $0.10 $0.18 $0.36 84.38% 71.88% 43.75%
Silumgar’s Command R $0.53 $0.00 $0.10 $0.08 $0.26 81.13% 84.91% 50.94%
Dragonlord’s Prerogative R $0.51 $0.00 $0.00 $0.08 $0.00 100.00% 84.31% 100.00%
Sunscorch Regent R $0.51 $0.00 $0.00 $0.19 $0.26 100.00% 62.75% 49.02%
Radiant Purge R $0.48 $0.00 $0.00 $0.06 $0.23 100.00% 87.50% 52.08%

 

Chart

Screen Shot 2015-07-18 at 2.30.57 PM

 

 

 

Notes

 

Finally, looking at Dragons of Tarkir we see that prices are still rather high across the board for the various mythics within the set. The mythics are in this set are much more in demand than Khans or Fate Reforged at this point. Deathmist Raptor and Dragonlord Ojutai are leading the pack, and even the five most expensive mythics are all $7-$10 retail. The dragonlords are all really popular too, which is to be expected since their Standard demand on top of causal demand will help buoy their price. Even MTGO redemption hasn’t moved prices that much yet. However, as more and more people continue to redeem throughout the year the prices should continue to drop. No spreads really pop out to me as something that needs to be watched closely.

 

Top rares have more room to drop than mythics. Again, the event deck has capped Collected Company and Dromoka’s Command, while cards like Kolaghan’s Command and Den Protector have a tiny more room to drop as the summer goes on and Dragons continues to saturate the market. Again, like the mythics, nothing really pops up here yet as a cheaper card with a low spread, so the best way to get in on Dragons rares moving forward is going to be watching results closely to see where Magic Origins is taking Tarkir block cards.

 

Wrapping Up

 

That’s my analysis so far of Tarkir Block spreads. Where do you all see Tarkir block cards going based the data, or even your own observations? Magic Origins was released last weekend and the results are already shaking up the format. Plenty of Origins cards are moving one way or the other so which cards are you picking up outside Origins that reflect the new Standard format? As always, I love hearing from you guys in the comments.

 

Magic Origins Clash Pack Review

Magic Origins Clash Pack Review

Let’s take a look at the Magic Origins Clash Pack to see if it is worth picking up in order to boost the value of your collection. I’ll look at both the MSRP versus retail value of the singles and then compare them to my opinions of what the future value of the cards will be after their rotation from Standard. I’ll also keep in mind that some of the cards from the decks are alternate art foil, which could reflect their future value.

For the alternate art foils, I am going to use the TCG Median price since MTGPrice does not yet track the value of specific clash pack foil versions of cards. I will note the special foils with three asterisks ***.

Decklists:

ARMED $$$ DANGEROUS $$$
1 Anointer of Champions 0.22 2 Ainok Bond-Kin 0.28
1 Dragon Hunter 0.32 2 Disowned Ancestor 0.26
1 Honored Hierarch*** 3 3 Lightwalker 0.42
1 Seeker of the Way*** 0.71 1 Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit 2.47
1 Dromoka Warrior 0.18 1 Avatar of the Resolute 1.6
2 Topan Freeblade 0.28 2 Abzan Falconer 0.4
2 Undercity Troll 0.46 1 Tuskguard Captain 0.18
1 Consul’s Lieutenant 0.3 1 Mer-Ek Nightblade 0.18
1 Dragon Bell Monk 0.14 1 Abzan Battle Priest 0.19
2 Valeron Wardens 0.48 1 Longshot Squad 0.14
2 Citadel Castellan 0.76 1 Siege Rhino*** 4.5
2 War Oracle 0.48 1 Elite Scaleguard 0.19
1 Outland Colossus 1 1 Dromoka, the Eternal*** 0.5
1 Kytheon’s Irregulars 0.9
2 Cached Defenses 0.42
2 Epic Confrontation 0.22 2 Map the Wastes 0.28
2 Enshrouding Mist 0.28 2 Incremental Growth 0.32
1 Feat of Resistance 0.15 2 Ultimate Price 0.68
2 Mighty Leap 0.28 1 Scale Blessing 0.2
1 Pressure Point 0.13 2 Dromoka’s Gift 0.4
1 Valorous Stance*** 2 1 Suspension Field 0.24
2 Titanic Growth 0.3 1 Debilitating Injury 0.14
1 Dromoka’s Command 6 1 Abzan Ascendancy 0.3
1 Collected Company 18 1 Citadel Siege 0.72
2 Pacifism 0.5 1 Ancestral Vengeance 0.14
2 Blossoming Sands 0.3 2 Jungle Hollow 0.3
2 Evolving Wilds 0.44 1 Sandsteppe Citadel*** 0.69
1 Windswept Heath 14 2 Scoured Barrens 0.3
11 Plains 0 2 Blossoming Sands 0.3
10 Forest 0 7 Plains 0
6 Swamp 0
6 Forest 0
Total Cost: $51.83 Total Cost: $16.74

The MSRP cost of the clash pack is $24.99, so looking at these two decks priced at $25 feels like highway robbery. Collected Company and Windswept Heath makes this a very juicy pickup indeed. On top of that they decided to throw in Dromoka’s Command, Siege Rhino, Honored Hierarch, and even Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit for fun.

The retail value of the singles versus the MSRP of the deck doesn’t automatically mean that everyone should buy this. Yet, I’m pretty sure this is the first clash pack released that is more than double its MSRP value in singles if you were to pay TCGPlayer Median for them. I’m wondering if that means the singles in the clash pack will drop significantly or if this clash pack will sell above MSRP for its life in Standard due to the value of the cards.

Big Reprints

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.02.10 AM

Collected Company

So this card is almost $20 TCG Mid right now as a Standard legal rare. Only out since April, Collected Company has already spiked three times due to Modern hype and the amount of decks that it has helped to push in the Modern format, on top of Standard demand in decks like Devotion to Green and Selesnya Aggro. Please realize though that this card isn’t Snapcaster Mage, so I don’t think that the $20 and higher price point is going to be sustainable for long.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.02.20 AM

It took a long time for Snapcaster Mage to break the $25 barrier. While it was in Standard, not only did it NOT receive the clash pack treatment but it also never went far above $25 as a fair trade price and could easily be acquired in cash or retail for $20 or less. Collected Company isn’t going to be nearly as ubiquitous as something like Snapcaster Mage. I mean, Birthing Pod decks at one point was putting up numbers in the mid-30% range of Top 8’s in Modern and even Pod never went farther than $20.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.02.31 AM

Standard legal cards are tricky, though. Since CoCo is so popular in both Standard and Modern the new price could be sticking. However, with the clash pack reprinting I’m guessing that something similar to what happened to Courser of Kruphix is going to happen to CoCo.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.02.40 AM

See that dip there in Jan 2015? That’s about the time the clash pack came out. Courser dropped $5 and never recovered in price. Now, CoCo also has significantly more Modern demand going for it, which is part of the reason the price is so wild right now. Though I feel that as more Dragons of Tarkir packs are busted that the hype will die down and that Collected Company will settle between $12 and $15 for the rest of its Standard life with a dip at rotation. However, if you were savvy enough to get in on Collected Comapny at $4 prerelease prices then definitely get rid of any extras you have before the price starts dipping again. This is the highest we’re going to see it for a while, and the clash pack reprint means the price is only going down.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.02.49 AM

Windswept Heath

I don’t think the clash pack printings are going to have any effect at all on Windswept Heath’s price in the near future, other than to stabilize it further at $15 compared to the other currently Standard legal fetchlands. The price isn’t going to lower significantly, as I don’t think we’ll ever see sub-$10 fetchlands in Standard since they are so vital to mana bases in the format and beyond.

This is a great opportunity to get in on Windswept Heath once copies from the clash packs saturate the market, since I’m guessing that many players are going to want to pick this clash pack up for the value. Once the price on Heath stabilizes, it’s going to be nice to pick up extra copies to use as trade bait later in Heath’s Standard life.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.02.57 AM

Dromoka’s Command

Dromoka’s Command is never going above $6 due to the clash pack printing. It previously had highs of $10 closer to the release of Dragons of Tarkir, however now that the hype has died down and Standard might be taking a new direction as the fall approaches, demand for Dromoka’s Command has wavered and retailers have updated their prices to reflect that.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.03.05 AM

Siege Rhino

I think that similar to Whip of Erebos that the clash pack printing of Siege Rhino will reflect the pack version’s price. The alternate art isn’t great on this card, so the regular foils of Siege Rhino will still be worth more than the clash pack foil but will stabilize quite a bit due to the clash pack printing.

In general, I’m not sure if Siege Rhino will ever go much further than $6 retail during its remaining time in Standard. Abzan is already starting to wane in favor of other strategies, so the demand for the Rhino has also been waning.

Screen Shot 2015-07-11 at 9.03.12 AM

Honored Hierarch

The jury’s still out on Honored Hiearch, as Magic Origins has just been released, however I think that it definitely has potential in Standard since Wizards is showing that they are moving away from one mana manadorks in favor of cards like Rattleclaw Mystic. My personal evaluation of the card is hot garbage, however I’m no professional player and also noted that Wizards released this as a rare which means that in playtesting it was too powerful as an uncommon (maybe for limited reasons?).

Either way, due to the clash pack printing and the already low price of $2.50 to $3, I don’t think that the Hierarch is going anywhere in price for the time being. Seems like it is tricky to get going in Standard, and even then your reward is only Birds of Paradise.

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Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit

Any chance that this card had of going over $3 was just killed. Now that there are going to be even more copies of this version of Anafenza out there the price isn’t moving. In fact, it could even go down based on the release of the clash pack.

If a later Standard strategy utilizes her, the price might move back up towards $3 but I don’t think there is room for growth here due to the clash pack reprinting.

 

Summary

The awesomeness of this clash pack can’t be understated. There is a ton of value here and I’m sure I’m not the only person that noticed. The big-box retailers are going to sell this clash pack for $30 or more based on the card values yet there are always deals to be had. I’m sure plenty of retailers are going to have this for $25 (or less even) so if you want to pick up the clash pack for a cheap copy of Collected Company and Windswept Heath for Standard play you can’t go wrong.

However, I would caution that once the singles dip in price that the deck will get less and less valuable and therefore less attractive as a pickup. For example, after Collected Company and Windswept Heath stabilize in price, most of the value cards are going to be $3 and less with just tons of bulk thrown in there. It’s going to be hard to trade or out the cards as more time goes on, so if you want to make the most of this clash pack then it is better to sell or trade the singles sooner rather than later.

Tradewind Rider – Riding the Tides of the Trade

Today I would like to give a few thoughts on my experiences with trading, both past and present. Consider what I’ve experienced in the past, how trading happens today and what the differences between past and current trading are, this will be more of an observation piece than anything so take it with a grain of salt. Not everyone might experience what I do when trading, and hopefully your trades are positive and productive. Certainly, mobile trading applications for phones have made trading the fairest it has ever been. However, there are downsides to this new approach to trading.

Is it worth it?

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To start things off, I’ve been wondering whether or not trading is a even worthwhile endeavor for me anymore. I’ve traded plenty over the years but where has it ultimately lead me? I will honestly say that my personal collection has risen in value more on the backs of cards that I’ve picked up from vendors at larger events or online than it ever really has through trading. I admit that this may not be the case anymore, due the cat being out of the bag with Legacy (and even Vintage) staples seeing insanely large price increases based on the surge of popularity Magic has experienced in recent years, though Modern seems to be the next point of entry where buying staples before the seasonal spikes seems to be rewarding me plenty. Why spend a large amount of time trading when I have a good thing going?

Trading for speculative targets is really hard, as the people you’re trading with will almost always never have the exact card that you’re looking for. When you trade, you really only have the option of looking at exactly what they have, and then they need to want something that you have, and then the values of those items needs to be equal (heaven forbid it be even $2 off, otherwise no deal!). See how trading can lose its appeal pretty quickly for something like speculating?

Even for other times that I have traded, the three step process of:

1) I need to find something they have that I want at this point in time.

2) They need to find something I have that they want at this point in time.

3) Those needs/wants need to converge within at least $1.50-$2.00 of each other, and even that usually needs to be in my trading partner’s favor.

 

Trading isn’t easy anymore and I’m not the only one who thinks this way. Plenty of people who I regularly play with have basically sworn off all trading other than trading done between close friends that have interacted closely over a significant period of time. Maybe we’re all just old school, since for the large majority of our Magic-playing careers the mobile trading apps didn’t exist and so we didn’t really care if we lost a few dollars on a trade here and there. Ultimately though, I think that I and my friends are just going to have to suck it up, learn to adapt, and know how to maximize the usefulness of the mobile trading apps if we’re going to look into trading outside our merry band of travelers. The dollars and cents matter so much these days for trading, and learning how to navigate the close scenarios so that both parties are happy has become both a skill and a science.

Screen Shot 2015-06-27 at 10.53.23 AMOn the flip side of this coin, trading can be really easy too. Unfortunately, when it’s really easy you know that someone is getting ripped off, and the only people that are OK with this are the sharkiest of sharks. These are the nightmare situations that many of us have lived through, where for example at the beginning of our Magic playing days we want to trade some of those dumb rare lands we opened up for big creatures that are going to smash people’s faces in. Having almost no background on the secondary market, we figured that each rare is about equal to acquire so hey there pal, go right ahead and take this land off me that I had no intention of playing anyways! Shortly after while telling someone about this “deal” we realize how dumb it was and feel bad that we could have gotten probably twenty times the amount of cards for that land.

From this perspective, mobile trading apps have been a godsend. Players no longer need to worry that they’re getting ripped off if they are new to the game and want to start branching out into trading to expand their collection. Yet, what many newer players don’t realize is that almost all of the rares or cards that they want will eventually become bulk anyways once they rotate from Standard, so focusing on losing a few dollars is almost always going to be an exercise in futility in the long run. The only time where you really need to be concerned about losing dollars in a trade is if the card is a chase mythic / rare from the set that is going to have eternal playability. However, if a player is new they know nothing about eternal formats anyways! Catch-22 if I ever saw one.
Screen Shot 2015-06-27 at 10.53.31 AMThis particular scenario is what makes trading so grindy these days. I used to be able to trade with five people in the span of ten minutes. Now, I’m lucky if I can execute one trade in fifteen minutes between my partner finding something, looking up all the prices of everything they’re considering, and then making sure to equalize everything once the majority of the trade has been put into the trading apps. Not exactly an a great use of my time, and as the saying goes time is money.

All in all, the adoption of mobile trading apps has been both a positive and a negative thing. It is positive in that both parties can verify that they are getting a fair deal, no matter what price sources you’re using for the trade. Are we using Star City prices for the trade? No problem, going from Star City to Star City is fine since even though they’re marked up in the first place the markup applies from bulk through the mythic rares. We using TCG Mid? Even better, the mid level prices better reflect condition and they can be adjusted accordingly on the applications.

Moving online?

I’m thinking that since in-person trading hasn’t been fruitful for me recently, that websites like Deckbox and Pucatrade can offer me easy ways of being able to trade online. They appear to have the best of both worlds – the convenience of trading whenever, having the best fair trade price, and having a ton of selection right? However, these services also have their issues.

Screen Shot 2015-06-27 at 10.53.40 AMThey are quite cutthroat. Think about this for a second – there are people out there who develop scripts specifically in order to maximize the number of trades that they see, in order to make sure that they are the first to be able to trade with a user if they have cards that they want. How is a human going to compete with something like that? You can’t, so the issue of finding someone to send cards to is going to be a big hurdle to overcome without knowing this. It might be a learning curve or whatever, so I’m sure that if you find a way to execute trades that works for you, you’ll get the hang of it and quickly become used to the vanishing wants of the system. However, I’m guessing that it is darn frustrating getting started with the services.

The online trading services also utilize the mail, which is going to involve USPS and beyond if we’re shipping internationally, so be prepared to wait up to a month to get those cards you want. Also, people that trade online seem to be extremely picky about condition, and why shouldn’t they? It’s advertised at a particular condition, and if it doesn’t meet that condition then the system or users should offer some type of recourse for the misleading listing. As many of us have experienced the definition of NM can actually vary widely from person to person. In other words, if it’s not “NM” there are going to be big problems and headaches for all. All in all, these complaints are pretty minor and once you set your expectations then the services are a good way to trade.

At the end of the day, the ultimate question is – Is it worth it to trade? For in person trades, I’m finding that for my needs that trading in person is becoming more and more of hassle. I’m generally only looking for specific cards, and my partners usually are too, and many times since they don’t have anything specific in their binder they usually refuse to trade anyways even if I become interested in smaller priced items that I wanted to pick up on a whim when I saw them that moment. Even when there is a trade to be made, the amount of time spent looking up the prices, accounting for conditioning, and then ensuring that everything is matched up according to whatever fair trade price is being used, simply wears me out. I feel exhausted when I finish a trade this way.
Screen Shot 2015-06-27 at 10.53.49 AMOnline trading is where the new frontier is. I’m not sure if the issue of postage will ever be resolved, however the issues of finding the trades you want to make and to account for condition (PucaTrade, I’m specifically looking to you here) are becoming better and better every day. Condition is a simple policy change and site update, while the amount of trades is all based on user base and more users means that more trade opportunities are going to open up. I feel like right now, even with the issues that online trading has, that it won’t be nearly as draining on my brain and psyche as in person trading has become.

Where do you all stand on trading these days? Is my experience typical of most players / traders or are your trades a more smooth and pleasant experience? I know that many of us on MTGPrice are starting to hop on the PucaTrade bandwagon pretty hard, and it looks like many of our trades are being executed successfully there. What have been some negative experiences of PucaTrade that you’ve encountered, or feel like you might run into eventually? Do Deckbox or other online services compare in any way to PucaTrade?

 

Magic Origins: A First Look

Magic Origins spoilers have slowly been trickling out from the Mothership and beyond, so let’s take a look at some of the previews we’ve been given so far and what it could mean for Standard and other formats.

 

Planeswalkers

The planeswalkers of the set have been spoiled and it’s the first time we’ve seen walkers that start as legendary creatures and transform into planeswalkers when a condition is met for them to trigger their “spark”.
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Kytheon / Gideon

Wow, this has got to be the most insane Savannah Lions variant the Magic community has received yet! So this is what a one mana planeswalker looks like (well, sort of). We’ve all wondered how Wizards would be able to print a planeswalker at one mana as a balanced card and I think we have our answer here.

Of course, the only downside to Kytheon is his legendary status. Only being able to have one Savannah Lions out on the field at a time is a bummer in white weenie decks but the great thing here is that he dies pretty easily, so the odds of you having one stuck in your hand for a long time are almost zero. A similar case study here is Isamaru, Hound of Konda. Even though it is also a legendary creature, in Kamigawa Standard he was still played as three to four copies per aggro deck even with the legendary drawback. This makes me think that the legendary status will matter but not as much as as legendary creatures that cost three or more mana. But wait, I haven’t even discussed the indestructibility! For three mana, having a way to ensure that Kytheon becomes Gideon is super important for such a fragile 2/1 body. You could also just sit on him if you need a blocker, making him indestructible and chumping non-tramplers all day. So basically, the card is nothing but upside as long as you don’t get another one or two of them stuck in your opening hand or within your opening draws.

The Gideon counterpart is also pretty awesome. Gideon Jura was certainly played in Rise of Eldrazi standard, and Kytheon offers us a Jura-mini just for attacking and beating face. Unfortunately, this Gideon doesn’t kill creatures (let’s be real, for one mana that would just be way too powerful to -2 to kill a creature) but it can boost its loyalty very quickly and mess with your opponent’s combat. Think of the +2 as an opposite Frenzied Goblin. Instead of being unable to block, the creature is forced to attack Gideon, removing it from attacking your face and thus “removing it from combat” and being able to block when your next combat phase comes along. The +1 also affects combat quite nicely, by having an attacker become indestructible or untapping an already tapped attacker and having an indestructible blocker for next turn.

All in all, Kytheon / Gideon is a very solid card and I expect it to see a ton of Standard play, especially in the fall when aggro decks will tend to gravitate towards the Top 8 of tournaments.
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Jace

The text here is hard to make out on the right, so here is the Telepath Unbound text:

+1: Up to one target creature gets -2/-0 until your next turn.

-3: You may cast target instant or sorcery card from your graveyard this turn. If that card would be put into your graveyard this turn, exile it instead.

-9: You get an emblem with “Whenever you cast a spell, target opponent puts the top five cards of his or her library into his or her graveyard”.

Loyalty 5

 

Jace certainly feels like he has potential for Standard as well. Merfolk Looter has been well received in Standard environments throughout the years and a Looter with upside is very appealing. My current thinking is that he will slot into the Sidisi-Whip deck quite nicely, and will continue to support Sidisi, Brood Tyrant after Theros block rotates from Standard.

After filling up your graveyard, Jace can then create a mini Yawgmoth’s Will situation that gives one of your instant or sorcery cards flashback until end of turn. Even the ultimate ability is kind of cool, since it allows you to put a fairly fast clock on your opponent since all of your spells will also have Tome Scour spliced onto them.

All in all, this Jace doesn’t excite me in quite the way that Kytheon / Gideon did, but the control and Sidisi players among us will have a cool new toy to play with soon.
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Liliana

I’m a huge fan of Liliana in eternal formats. I’m thinking that the new wave of Collected Company decks in Modern might try experimenting with her since they have so many ways of sacrificing creatures for value. Unfortunately, with the banning of Birthing Pod there are fewer ways to sacrifice your own creatures within the deck, but I think there are enough tools in a format like Modern to really push Liliana to the next level.

In terms of Standard, I’m not sure what type of sacrifice outlets we’re going to be getting in the future but currently the ones that exist are meh at best. She has weak stats for the mana cost and can be removed very easily before being able to be transformed into her ‘walker form. I think people will try to make her work in Standard decks but I’m not sure if the support exists to really get your mana’s worth.
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Chandra

*Sigh*, why is Chandra always so bad? Red players never get a break. Remember Tibalt? Chandra isn’t that bad, but she is still pretty boring and lackluster compared to the other ‘walkers seen so far.

You have to do soo much work to transform her. However, one interesting trick is that you can attack with her to deal two damage, then cast a red spell during your second main phase to untap her and then tap her for the third damage in order to transform her into a ‘walker. So, sometimes you will only need one spell to transform her rather than two.

The planeswalker side is fine. +1 for two face damage is pretty nice, -2 for two creature damage is alright, and the ultimate ability if you get it off is certainly devastating. However, I’m just not sure that this Chandra has what it takes to see Standard play. She seems even more frail to me than Liliana, and I think that Liliana is going to have a hard time seeing Standard play currently. I think she would have been much better with Haste, however I didn’t do any of the play testing with the card to know if that would be too good or not.
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Nissa

The text here is hard to make out on the right, so here is the Sage Animist text:

+1: Reveal the top card of your library. If it’s a land card, put it onto the battlefield. Otherwise, put it into your hand.

-2: Put a legendary 4/4 green Elemental creature token named Ashaya, the Awoken World onto the battlefield.

-7: Untap up to six target lands. They become 6/6 Elemental creatures. They’re still lands.

Loyalty 3

Creature Nissa is definitely underwhelming. A strictly worse Civic Wayfinder, Nissa doesn’t have much going for her ability-wise. Hey, at least she’s better than Chandra right!?

Seriously though, she has some pretty nice late game potential that makes up for underwhelming creature version. Casting her later in the game and activating the planeswalker transformation right away will be the most optimal play. Once Nissa becomes a planeswalker, it’s all upside from there. Her abilities are all very good. +1 to draw a card / drop a land, -2 to create a creature to protect herself (which can be activated right away), and then finally having a game ending -7 if the opportunity presents itself is a nice touch.

Keeping everything in mind, I do think Nissa will see Standard play since green midrange decks will be able to pretty consistently transform her since they ramp up to seven lands pretty quickly and her creature form is fine as a 2/2 blocker that gets you your next land drop.

 

Other Spoilers

Besides planeswalkers, we’ve gotten some other spoilers that I’d like to go over quickly here.
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Avaricious Dragon seems cool and all since we just received a set that gave us “dragons matter” cards. However, I don’t think it is quite as good as it seems at first glance. A 4/4 flyer for 2RR has already been filled by Thunderbreak Regent nicely and I’m not sure if the decks that play Thunderbreak Regent want this card. I’m thinking that if this card sees play at all, it is going to be as the top of the curve in Red Deck Wins. In other words, it could certainly see play in Atarka Red as the finisher of choice once you’ve exhausted your hand of all the cheap one and two mana spells.

The unfortunate thing about the dragon is that it makes you discard your entire hand right away, since it triggers during your end step. So, I guess you have to be playing a super greedy deck as the card’s name implies. Not that burn is greedy or anything, but you could certainly make it greedier by including one or two of these bad boys in your list.

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Ravaging Blaze itself isn’t that exciting to me, but the Spell Mastery ability is. See, Wizards has taken the direction of Magic much further towards creature based dominance rather than spell dominance. Now, they have created an effect that rewards you for playing instants and sorceries! I’m sure they’ve nerfed this ability in some way to make sure that it won’t be abused in Standard or other eternal formats, but it’s good to know that Wizards is also keeping mind that they need good instants and sorceries in order to keep the game fresh for players. Creature based dominance is fine, but when spells keep costing more and more mana for the same effect over the years it certainly gets annoying. Hopefully, we’ll get some exciting Spell Mastery cards that might even shake things up in eternal formats.
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Dwynen (I keep saying Dy-wen in my head) is actually pretty good. An elf lord with reach, an extra ability, and a huge butt? I think this card will see play somewhere along the lines in a Constructed format, and even if it doesn’t this card will be casual gold for years to come. Lord effects are very popular among casual players, and Dwynen provides that effect on a legendary creature which is also nice for the Commander players among us. I honestly don’t think this card will ever be bulk since the lord effect and life gain ability are two things that casuals love. Plus, reach and an additional point of toughness just because? That’s just icing on the cake.
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Really, Chandra’s parents needed a card? I’m not sure what role they play in her story or even the overall story of Magic as a whole, however I’m glad that they printed this card because it’s actually very unique for a red card.

I like the direction Wizards is taking red with creating Human Artificers like this card and Feldon. Though their has been a smattering of red artificers in the past, Daretti and company have reintroduced the red artificer creature subtype in a big way. This card is also breaking some color pie boundaries. A red card that generates 1/1 flying tokens when it enters the battlefield? That’s pretty sweet and definitely seems Standard playable to me.

However, the best part is that you can shock creatures and players with artifacts justs like Siege-Gang Commander does with goblins. So not only are you getting 1/1 flying Thopters with this card, but if it lives then it can start shocking things by sacrificing artifacts. That seems pretty powerful to me.

However, I guess the ultimate question is – is it good enough for Standard? I don’t really see this card being played in eternal formats, and maybe my own love for Siege-Gang Commander is making me think this card is much better than it actually is.

 

Wrapping Up

All the cards I’ve discussed today shouldn’t be preordered – I don’t think any of them are powerful enough to sustain their current preorder prices. However, they definitely offer a nice glimpse into what the future of Standard might look like. All of the planeswalkers seem playable, even Chandra if enough good red spell support is provided, so we’ll just have to wait and see what other support they are given (if any) once the rest of the spoilers are revealed.

What do you guys think? Did I miss the mark on some of my evaluations or do you also see some of the same connections and trends that I’ve noticed?