One of the big things about Magic speculation and finance in the modern era is that we have more avenues for reprints than ever. Special Guests, Secret Lairs, bonus sheets, it all adds up so very fast!

So today, I’m going to show my research about this topic, and attempt to answer the question: Does a new special version of a card damage the price of other versions of the card? Buckle up!

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

We have gotten a lot of cards in the last few sets that have a combination of very low drop rates and very high demand, either due to art or being a staple in more than one format.

Tarkir: Dragonstorm takes that trend and cranks it up another notch, with the Dragonscale foil fetchlands being the perfect storm of people needing them, people wanting them, and having a low drop rate. 

I’ve been asked by folks on and offline some version of this question: “When should I buy the Dragonscale foils I want so much?” and today, I’m here to give you the best answer I can. 

Full disclaimer: I am going to be purchasing a set of these lands for myself. Let’s get that out of the way. I’m a well-known Dragon aficionado, and while I wish there was a complete set of these lands, I still want these gorgeous five. I tried to fight the urge, but I am who I am.

Last week, we established that Dragonscale foils have a drop rate of 1%, which means you should get one every 100 Collector Boosters you open of this set. Statistics are funny things: Some people will open 200 and get none, others will open 50 and get three. It’s probability, not a guarantee. 

Since there’s five fetches, the odds of you getting a specific one is 1 in 500 packs. That’s a boatload of product, but that’s also about three times the drop rate for a Fracture Foil Twinflame Tyrant in English, which was about 1 in 1500 packs. We have gotten some very rare treatments in recent sets, so let’s take a moment and look at what we’ve been given lately, including the # of packs needed to open a specific card in that treatment:

Treatment/Frame	Set	Approx. # of packs needed
Halo Foil Ghostfire	Tarkir: Dragonstorm	1000
Fracture Foil in English	Aetherdrift	1515
Fracture Foil in English	Foundations	1515
Showcase or Borderless Mythic	Innistrad Remastered	118
Fracture Foil in English	Duskmourn	1428
Raised Anime Foil	Bloomburrow	574
Textured Foil Mythic	Outlaws of Thunder Junction: Off The Presses	1500
Enchanting Tales Anime Confetti Mythic	Wilds of Eldraine	882

Innistrad Remastered sticks out like a sore thumb here, but that was a product with higher prices than the others on this list. Probably a lower print run, too, though we lack that specific data. I included Wilds of Eldraine because some of those confetti foils have really popped off, and are worth looking at on a long-term scale. 

Each of these sets has cards in a very rare treatment, though the aesthetic is markedly different. The current prices reflect a difference in play pattern, yes, but demand is hard to measure outside of price. We can look at each of these treatments, though, and see which cards are the most expensive.

Treatment/Frame	Set	Card Name	Current price	EDHREC # of decks
Halo Foil Ghostfire	Tarkir: Dragonstorm	Ugin, Eye of the Storms	$400	N/A
Fracture Foil in English	Aetherdrift	Radiant Lotus	$300	6100 decks
Fracture Foil in English	Foundations	Llanowar Elves	$700	549k decks
Showcase or Borderless Foil Mythic	Innistrad Remastered	Edgar Markov	$35 (not a typo)	29k as Commander (#3 in last two years)
Fracture Foil in English	Duskmourn	Enduring Vitality	$210	78k decks
Raised Anime Foil	Bloomburrow	Ms. Bumbleflower	$615	12k decks as Commander
Textured Foil Mythic	Outlaws of Thunder Junction: Off The Presses	Mana Drain	$170	412k decks
Enchanting Tales Anime Confetti Mythic	Wilds of Eldraine	Rhystic Study	$700	739k decks

Some of these prices I had to go back and double-check, especially Edgar. His Showcase foil frame version is easy to find under $40, which is pretty amazing given where his price was. He’d never been in a booster pack before, though. 
We know that the greater the demand for the card, the more expensive it will be, but it’s not a direct correlation. Ms. Bumbleflower is not a top card but her raised foil version is rare enough, and she’s popular enough, to keep her price sky-high. Llanowar Elves has recently sold out of every copy under $700, so while it had a dip at one point, the trend is clear and it’s not like anyone is mass-cracking Foundations at this point.

Mana Drain is really the outlier here. Yes, it has multiple premium printings, in that there was a borderless, an extended art, and even a judge foil, but this version is both the most expensive and (subjective opinion) it’s the most ugly. Wizards has tried a lot of art styles over the years, but this OTP frame has low prices for basically everything but this and Mindbreak Trap. The art also makes a big difference. Doubling Season is a 1/882 as a Confetti foil as well as being a 1/1500 for a Fracture Foil, and the Fracture version is about three times as expensive. It’s got cute anime kittens on it, and we know how much Magic players love a cute kitty.

Treatment/Frame	Set	Card Name	Current price	EDHREC # of decks
Halo Foil Ghostfire	Tarkir: Dragonstorm	Ugin, Eye of the Storms	$400	N/A
Fracture Foil in English	Aetherdrift	Radiant Lotus	$300	6100 decks
Fracture Foil in English	Foundations	Llanowar Elves	$700	549k decks
Showcase or Borderless Foil Mythic	Innistrad Remastered	Edgar Markov	$35 (not a typo)	29k as Commander (#3 in last two years)
Fracture Foil in English	Duskmourn	Enduring Vitality	$210	78k decks
Raised Anime Foil	Bloomburrow	Ms. Bumbleflower	$615	12k decks as Commander
Textured Foil Mythic	Outlaws of Thunder Junction: Off The Presses	Mana Drain	$170	412k decks
Enchanting Tales Anime Confetti Mythic	Wilds of Eldraine	Rhystic Study	$700	739k decks

Let’s look at these as TCGPlayer graphs over the last year. No point with Ugin, but we’ll look at these in order, most recent first.

Radiant Lotus:

Llanowar Elves:

Enduring Vitality:

Ms. Bumbleflower:

Mana Drain:

And Rhystic Study, but the card is more than a year since release, so keep that in mind:

For almost all of these, we can see that the price starts out high, and then takes a dip, and then rises into the stratosphere. Mana Drain remains the odd duck, but again, I think that’s depressed by the art. It’s not as obviously pretty/visually unique with fracture foils or confetti or something obvious and sparkly and shiny to say how rare it is. I have several raised foils in Commander decks, and they are hard to identify visually as being raised, even with a different frame than regular OTP. 

Bringing this all back: when should you buy your Dragonscale foils? (or, if you prefer, when do I plan to get mine?) I think the trend here is quite clear, even if the drop rate is relatively high at 1 in 500 for your specific fetchland. If you buy anytime the first week, that’s too early. Six weeks should see the beginning of the rise in these lands, and where they will stop I couldn’t say. So I’m aiming for about one month after the set is released. These are tough pulls, they go in a lot of decks, and Commander players like their shiny things, myself included. They won’t drop for long, if at all, and waiting just looks like it’ll cost us more.

There’s an additional layer here: We’re only getting five of the ten fetches in this treatment, currently. If the next set, or some other in the future, has the five allied fetches in this treatment, then we’re going to see these first five really take off as people build their set. I would love to know for sure that the other five are coming (I want a matched set!) but if the other five are ever announced one of the first effects will be that these five all jump in price. 

Hope this helps, and I really hope you open the one you need.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

We’ve gone from this being a Spongebob-only drop to a whole six-pack of extra drops coming along for the ride. Some of these are glorious, others thoroughly mid, and we need to look at the use cases and competition for these cards.

For each drop, I’m pulling the EDHREC data, which does have a caveat about prioritizing the most invested players and there’s a lot of ‘precon plus upgrade’ lists on the site. It’s good data to have, but it is not perfect data.

They Grow Up So Fast

Dragonlord Atarka

EDHREC: 300 as Commander/9k as card

Special Printings: 30th Play Promo Retro Foil ($15)

Dragonlord Ojutai

EDHREC: 1300 as Commander/15k as card

Special Printings: Borderless Foil (30th Countdown) ($9)

Dragonlord Silumgar

EDHREC: 300 as Commander/15k as card

Special Printings: Foil-Etched ($7), Secret Lair Showdown ($14/$265 foil)

Dragonlord Dromoka

EDHREC: 500 as Commander/35k as card

Special Printings: Borderless Foil ($18) and Foil-Etched ($18)

Dragonlord Kolaghan

EDHREC: 100 as Commander/10k as card

Special Printings: Secret Lair Foil ($14)

It’s hard to argue with five solid cards, although the inclusion rates could be higher. As a Dragon enthusiast, I can tell you that it is hard to be one of the 40 best Dragons of all time. You get a choice of arts here, as a 2 for 1, and you get the chance to play a matched set of Dragons too. All it takes for the average value to be $10 and this will end up a positive, and that is entirely dependent on how long they go before printing these again. I’m not confident of that–there’s been special printings within the last two years for most of these, and given the rate of new Dragons, I won’t be in a hurry to get these versions.

That said, I think this is the one most likely to sell out first, and if it goes even before Spongebob sells out (different quantities printed) then the FOMO could have this be a very profitable quick flip. My long-term expectations for these five are quite mediocre, though, and it’s hard to imagine these dragons being more than $15-$20 for the top two or three. 

Garden Buds

Ashaya, Soul of the Wild

EDHREC: 2100 as Commander/86k as card

Special Printings: FEA ($18)

Elvish Reclaimer

EDHREC: 43k

Special Printings: MYB2 Future Frame ($4/$120 foil)

Harrow

EDHREC: 237k

Special Printings:40K Surge Foil ($6), Textless MPR nonfoil ($7)

World Shaper

EDHREC: 78k

Special Printings: None

Horn of Greed

EDHREC: 38k decks

Special Printings: None

The art style here is polarizing, since it’s just as much about the font and layout than the actual art. I’ve got to love the numbers here, from solid to staple, and there’s not a lot of fighting over special printings. I have a special place in my heart for all MPR cards, as someone who was able to get a lot of them during the heyday of the program, so I love this Harrow more than I should.

This is my favorite drop of the set from a finance perspective. The cards all have enough demand and there’s almost no other sweet versions competing for eyeballs and dollars. I will be getting a couple of these. 

Tragic Romance

Kaalia of the Vast

EDHREC: 23,400 as Commander (#8 in last 2 years), 3900 as card

Special Printings: 2X2 Borderless ($40), MH3 Borderless ($38/$97), MH3 Profile ($13/$19) , MH3 Foil-Etched ($7)

Skithryx, the Blight Dragon

EDHREC:1943 as Commander, 37k as card

Special Printings: MUL Foil-Etched ($15), Halo Foil ($55), Serialized ($450+)

Angel of Despair

EDHREC: 18k decks

Special Printings: Full Art Foil Store Championships ($2.50)

Master of Cruelties

EDHREC: 32k decks

Special Printings: 2X2 Foil Etched ($14), RVR Retro Foil ($3), Serialized ($160)

Kaalia was one of the original legends in Commander 2011, and has maintained her popularity due to the wide variety of decks that can be built around her. The Master of Cruelties combo isn’t as consistent as you might hope, but if you attack with Kaalia, drop the Master, they do need to have a blocker or they are indeed dead. Angel of Despair is an original include with Kaalia too, and good ol’ Skittles is a combo unto himself.

We’ve had a lot of ‘Commander plus staples of that Commander’s deck’ drops and mostly those have languished. Astarion and Karlach are more the exception than the rule, we’ve got examples such as Zaxara, Tovolar, and Animar who have seen their drops stay in their original price ranges, rather than zoom to the moon. Kaalia is a bold choice, one of the most popular yet, but Animar is #25 and that drop can be bought for a mere $30. There is room for this to be expensive, but most of the history indicates that if it does go up, it’ll take a long time to get there. 

Twisted Toons

Fatal Push

EDHREC: 22k decks

Special Printings: Secret Lair Showdown ($150), Secret Lair ($20), 2XM Borderless ($25/$16)

Silence

EDHREC: 159k decks

Special Printings: TSR Retro ($12/$86) Secret Lair ($30/$36)

Winds of Abandon

EDHREC: 49k decks

Special Printings: none

Culling the Weak

EDHREC: 105k decks

Special Printings: 2021 JPN Comic Promo ($24), MYB2 White Border ($6 nonfoil)

Young Wolf

EDHREC: 10k decks

Special Printings: INR Borderless (50¢ foil)

Wolf and Push have some decent play numbers outside of Commander, and it’s always nice to pick a card people need several of for Modern, instead of just one for Commander. Winds is a useful Commander card, and this being the first printing outside the regular frame is a nice bonus. I didn’t know Culling the Weak was such a popular card either!

It’s an interesting choice to go cartoony in the same Drop as your big Spongebob release, but that’s where we are. I think this drop has potential, since it’s got a great mix of EDH cards and cards that see Constructed play, but I’m not eager for this drop. 

Pick ‘em and Stick ‘em

Thalia, Heretic Cathar

EDHREC: 234 as Commander, 65k as card

Special Printings: 30th countdown Borderless ($5/$9), INR borderless ($1) and Retro (50¢) foils

Clever Impersonator

EDHREC: 64k decks

Special Printings: none

Hedron Crab

EDHREC: 32k decks

Special Printings: none

Pitiless Plunderer

EDHREC: 215k

Special Printings: Fallout Surge Foil ($24), SPG ($16/$24)

It’s always amused me that Hedron Crab is an $8 card because it lets you target yourself, and Ruin Crab is $1 because it’s opponents only. I think the sticker gimmick is exactly that, something that most people won’t bother with, and a potential nightmare for vendors. Having two first-time special cards, with good art, plus the staple of Plunderer, is enough to make this drop acceptable to me, but my expectations are low for the growth pattern. I think it’ll get there, but it’s going to take a longer time than I want. 

Secret Lair High: Class of ‘87

Aesi, Tyrant of Gyre Strait

EDHREC: 11241 as Commander, 75k as card

Special Printings: none

Anje Falkenrath

EDHREC: 4843 as Commander, 6700 as card

Special Printings: none

Chulane, Teller of Tales

EDHREC: 7636 as Commander, 31k as card

Special Printings: none

Radha, Heart of Keld

EDHREC: 837 decks as Commander, 16k as card

Special Printings: FEA ($1.50)

We’ve had some unusual frames for cards, but it is an incredible choice to go all the way to the 1987 aesthetic for this. These aren’t super-popular cards, though Aesi is $10 due to Simic being always-busted. Under other circumstances, in the old SL model, this would have been my pick for ‘no one buys it, so it gets expensive.’ However, Wizards’ new model is to leave things on the SL site forever, as we wee with Halloween-theme cards like Chucky and Ghostbusters still freely available after nearly six months. This drop will languish on the site forever, and I want no part of it if I can help it.

They have announced that you’ll get a Deadeye Navigator for every $150 spent, and it’s a combotastic card that should fetch around $10, a fun bonus but nothing to get worked up about like the Seedborn Muse was. Bonus is bonus, though, and I appreciate having a little something extra. 

The bundles, if we’re lucky, will be somewhere in the 10% to 15% off range, going by previous drops. I’m not really interested in a mega-bundle of the entre drop, as there’s too many mediocre-to-bad drops for my taste here. This is my ranking:

1. Spongebob Legends
2. Spongebob Memes
3. Spongebob Lands (Somehow in my article last week I missed that you get two of each land!)
4. Garden Buds
5. They Grow Up So Fast
6. Tragic Romance
7. Pick ‘em and Stick ‘em
8. Twisted Toons
9. Class of ‘87

Personally, I might get one all-foil drop and then focus on Spongebob. This summer is going to be an expensive time, with Final Fantasy being something I buy a LOT of, and having extras of these other lairs just doesn’t sing to me. I’m really hoping there is a Spongebob bundle, and then I can get individual Lairs, allowing me to get 10x of the foil memes and legends. I wouldn’t mind 5x of each of the nonfoils, but the legends and memes are the drops I’m maximizing for this Monday.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

The SpongBob SquarePants Secret Lair is upon us, faster than anyone was anticipating. It goes on sale March 24 at 9 am PST, 12pm EST, or 4 pm Greenwich Mean Time, if that’s your zone. Three drops, and the bonus cards are as yet unknown., but the speculation is rampant and hilarious.

This is a big deal. SpongeBob has more than 300 episodes, has been on since 2010, and that’s not taking into account movies, specials, and the incredible amount of merchandise available under this brand.

So let’s dive to the deck, flop like a fish, and decide if we’re buying.

I want to start with an overview of the specific cards. Sometimes, the cards don’t matter at all, but it’s easier when the cards are at least good. (See: Miku’s first drop, Sakura Superstar) For each drop, I want to list the EDHREC numbers, the number and type of special printings, and the current price of the foil specials (if any). Those are the comparisons most helpful for something like this, although the IP goes a long way. It’s also notable that these three drops are $30 nonfoil and $40 foil, where others have been $40/$50. 

SpongeBob SquarePants: Legends of Bikini Bottom

SpongeBob SquarePants as Jodah the Unifier

EDHREC: 18k as commander (#19 last two years), 16k decks

Special Printings: Showcase foil ($4) and Showcase Textured foil ($10)

This is glorious in so many ways. Spongebob is a friendly dude, happy-go-lucky, and loves to gather his friends together. Jodah does exactly that! The Showcase version is interesting, with the stained glass look of the card, but this rainbow, big eyed, giant smile is pretty hilarious when compared with the wrecking ball that Jodah represents on the board. Win. 

Patrick Star as Barktooth Warbeard

EDHREC: <500 total 

Special Printings: none, only reprint since Legends

This having the ‘I nailed a board to my head somehow’ meme as the art is a great choice. Are there starfish in Magic that have more abilities? Absolutely. But Patrick is dependable, he is what he is and he’s not super complex. Having the flavor text as “I don’t get it” is extra trolly and I am here for it. 

Gary, the Snail as Toxrill, the Corrosive

EDHREC: 6k as commander, 38k decks

Special Printings: Silver Screen foil ($70), Showcase foil ($20)

Toxrill is a powerhouse of a commander, and while the Gary art is very nonthreatening, the irony is hilarious. The Showcase and DBF foils are good, but they won’t stand out in the same way this will, and I expect this to fit between the current special version prices. 

Sandy Cheeks, Martial Astronaut as Toski, Bearer of Secrets

EDHREC: 2k as commander, 178k decks

Special Printings: Showcase foil ($6), SPG foil ($25)

By far the most popular card in this drop, I am expecting big things from Sandy. The SPG version is good, but they took a great character and put her in a great pose and I want this version in all my decks. Toski and Sandy just fit well, and she wants to be in the action, doing things, kicking butt and taking names!

Squidward, Sarcastic Snob as Grazilaxx, Illithid Scholar

EDHREC: 500 as commander, 57k decks

Special Printings: FEA ($1.50), Ampersand ($10)

Squidward is a semi-popular card to include in decks that want to bounce things in and out of play. Ninjas see a lot of value here, as does most flavors of blink decks. There were other choices here for the card but the annoying factor is perfect flavor. 

Mr. Krabs, Penny Pincher as Charix, the Raging Isle

EDHREC: 2500 as commander, 26k decks

Special Printings: FEA ($2)

Not a lot of iconic crabs in Magic, but I am glad they skipped making this a Ruin/Hedron mill crab. Only really good in heavy blue decks, but this does see play in toughness matters, either for milling or for toughness-as-power reasons. 

Plankton, Tiny Tyrant as Skrelv, Defector Mite

EDHREC: 1500 as commander, 86k decks

Special Printings: Showcase ($3) and Step-and-Compleat ($8)

This is the most tournament-played card in the drop, and might help the nonfoil version of the drop sell better/hold a price better. It’s also worthy for any Commander deck that needs to keep the commander safe. 

SpongeBob SquarePants: Internet Sensation

Counterspell

EDHREC: 1.14 million decks

Special Printings: Several, with a very wide range of prices.

SpongeBob’s face doing this, put onto Counterspell, might be the most iconic combination of art, intent, and card use possible. I can see this as Rhystic Study “DiD yOu PaY tHe OnE” sort of thing but this is glorious in every way possible. Is there a non-Vintage Cube that wouldn’t love to have this art?

Daze

EDHREC: 20k decks

Special Printings: Invocation ($200)

I thought there had been something else over the years, a SPG or anything, but no, this is the only other special printing of Daze and that alone might be worth the price of admission. Even better is that you’ll get a certain number of Legacy players who need not just one copy, but four matching ones. 

Inevitable Betrayal

EDHREC: 36k decks

Special Printings: MH2 Retro and FEA (Both $1)

I had straight-up forgotten that this card exists, but the art makes me want to play it in every blue deck! Sure, Bribery is better, but it doesn’t make the whole table nervous for a couple turn cycles. Again, iconic combination of art and card, someone at WotC deserves a bonus for this.

Force of Despair

EDHREC: 31k

Special Printings: Secret Lair Prize ($15 foil)

There are a lot of Magic cards that refer to sadness, depression, and feelings of being alone, and Force of Despair is a worthy inclusion. Sacrificing, and especially taking fun away from others, is a great way to use this art. 

Night’s Whisper

EDHREC: 245k decks

Special Printings: Retro Foil WPN ($1), Dracula SL ($7 foil)

Creepy, accurate, and hilarious. Everything you want a SL to be. This should easily become the most expensive version, and I hope I have the chance to buy in cheap.

SpongeBob SquarePants: Lands Under the Sea

No point listing all the sweet cards here. Great choices from the show, and Gary features in all of them as a happy little snail taking a tour. This will be more popular than you think.

There’s a lot of discussion on how the bonus card is very likely to be SpongeBob’s house as Command Tower, and there’s a lot of folks who would love for that to be true. Including me.

Overview

One of the things I’m expecting here is a massive print run for this set. We know that the Miku lairs were cranked up between the first and the last  in terms of print run, and despite all the tech glitches and problems, the Marvel Lair took several hours to sell out. I don’t think this will sell out in less than a few hours, but the supply will be pretty significant at the outset.

SpongeBob collectibles aren’t a huge market the way they are for Hatsune Miku, but the nostalgia/gifts for kids factor is through the roof here. People will want this just for a physical copy of the memes.

Additionally, I expect the lands to sell out first. It’s reasonable to assume that they printed less of the lands, since lands are usually the worst-selling part of a Lair. From a psychology perspective, it also gooses interest to have something sell out early, and push hype towards getting the rest of it sold. I imagine there will be some minor bundle discount, and I will be maxing out the bundles as best I can.

If I were ranking these, it would go memes-legends-lands, but I’m a big believer in this drop and I will be investing in both foils and nonfoils. A full set of both would be about $210, and based on past pricing, the bundle price will be something like $180. That price point is just under 15% off and I plan to max out there, getting additional single foil drops as well.

I think this drop has all the hallmarks of a success, and the only question for me is how many hours it will take to sell out. I plan on buying a lot, and I would encourage you to do the same.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.