It’s the New Year, and it’s time to look at what I actually bought into during the calendar year. Some of these are specs, some of these are related to picks I’ve made, and plenty are Secret Lairs. I want to be as transparent as possible, and if you want to see all that I’ve done, this is your time.
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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
You might be thinking something like ‘We don’t even know all the cards in this set yet, and this guy is calculating odds and how many there are and what to target already?’
And the answer, clearly, is yes.
Given what we know, we can make more than a few suppositions, and estimate where would be a good place to make some plans.
So last week, I laid out that my estimate for the print run is 1.25 million packs.
With some more research, and conversation, and distributors, I’m revising that to double the print run, at 2.5 million Collector Booster packs. The numbers after this paragraph have been edited to reflect that new estimate.
With that number, we can say how many of a certain card *should* be out there. This presumes that every pack finds it hands into customers’ hands, which is not a given.
What we can glean, though, is going to do a lot for our expectations. Let’s look again at the categories of cards in the last three slots. First, the two nonfoil slots:
Nonfoil Category
# of packs to open one specific card from that category
Final odds (divided by two, because there’s two slots!)
Times $30/pack to get cost/copy
Movie Poster Rare or Mythic Rare (10)
114.94
57.47
$1,724.14
Retro Frame (24)
57.55
28.78
$863.31
Retro Frame Mythic Rare (12)
81.08
40.54
$1,216.22
Other Booster Fun Rare (17)
57.43
28.72
$861.49
Other Booster Fun Mythic Rare (6)
115.38
57.69
$1,730.77
And as a reminder, the foil slot:
Traditional Foil (unless noted otherwise)
# of packs to open one specific card from that category
Times $30/pack to get cost/copy
Movie Poster (10)
100.00
$3,000.00
Retro Frame Rare (24)
58.39
$1,751.82
Retro Frame Mythic Rare (12)
82.19
$2,465.75
Borderless, Showcase Equinox, or Showcase Fang Rare (17)
58.22
$1,746.58
Borderless, Showcase Equinox, or Showcase Fang Mythic Rare (6)
117.65
$3,529.41
Now, that data is useful, as these cards aren’t tough to pull. We know that already. But when you add in the 2.5 million as the number of packs, then we get the approximate number of copies out there…and that’s illuminating indeed. Data is useful, as these cards aren’t tough to pull. We know that already. But when you add in the 2.5 million as the number of packs, then we get the approximate number of copies out there…and that’s illuminating indeed.
# of packs to get a copy (approx.)
# of copies out there (approx.)
Nonfoil Category
Movie Poster Rare or Mythic Rare (10)
57.47
43500.96
Retro Frame (24)
28.78
86865.88
Retro Frame Mythic Rare (12)
40.54
61667.49
Other Booster Fun Rare (17)
28.72
87047.35
Other Booster Fun Mythic Rare (6)
57.69
43335.07
Traditional Foil (unless noted otherwise)
Movie Poster (10)
100
25000.00
Retro Frame Rare (24)
58.39
42815.55
Retro Frame Mythic Rare (12)
82.19
30417.33
Borderless, Showcase Equinox, or Showcase Fang Rare (17)
58.22
42940.57
Borderless, Showcase Equinox, or Showcase Fang Mythic Rare (6)
117.65
21249.47
So let’s start with the movie posters, as we know two of them already: Emrakul, the Promised End and The Meathook Massacre.
Both of these are already expensive cards in their own right, and therefore start out as quite pricey cards, especially in foil. However, given the quantity out there, I think there will be a downward trend for these over time. Let’s do a comparison for the nonfoils.
Card
# of copies
EDHREC usage
Price
Hellkite Tyrant (Retro Frame Serialized)
500
90,000 decks
$185 (started at $260)
Emrakul, the Promised End
~43,500
44,000 decks
$50/$100 (projected)
The Meathook Massacre
~43,500
125,000 decks
$75/$130 (projected)
Emrakul is currently at $45 and will drop some in price for the regular frame, but the movie poster version should end up at $60 or so, with the foil being at or near $100. I think Meathook’s popularity will bode well over time, but the initial price is just too wild. It’s $90+ and should slowly decline in price. I’ll need a couple for my decks, but these cards will come down as time passes.
If we knew the other movie poster cards we could make estimations of those prices as well, but for now, we’re just speculating.
The movie posters are slightly more common than the alternate frame mythics, but I have little faith in non-serialized Edgar Markov’s price long-term. Everyone who wants a Vampire deck will be able to get one, and while he’s a fantastic Commander with a broken ability (Eminence is pretty damn overpowered) he’s going to have trouble keeping regular nonfoils over $30. We’re getting Showcase, Retro, and Regular frames, plus the serialized version, which will attract the big spenders.
We do know some of the retro frame cards, like Snapcaster, Liliana of the Veil, or Meathook, and sadly, I don’t think that these are going to be particularly chase versions. Retro frame was a really cool thing when it first happened but compared to the borderless versions we get, these are just not as desired unless they are super-rare or serialized. The prices bear this out, as evidenced by super-staples like Cyclonic Rift or Rhystic Study.
As more cards get previewed from this set, we’ll get better information, but for right now, this is what we’ve got and this will help us manage the new-set-frenzy that might come up.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
Welcome to the latest installment of the Mana Math series, this time talking about Innistrad Remastered! This set has reprints of previous showcase frames, it has borderless art, movie poster art, and even a single serialized card in the progenitor himself, Edgar Markov.
We haven’t gotten all the previews yet, but they told us enough information that I can confidently write out how many packs it will take to get a card with a certain treatment, in foil or nonfoil. So let’s get to the numbers, and see what we can see.
In the Collecting Innistrad Remastered article, the information we need is spread out, regarding how many cards there are in each frame, but if you read carefully, it’s all in there. I’ve assembled it into a handy table for you.
With that laid out, we can now look at the categories and percentages Wizards lays out for us for our nonfoil pulls from a Collector Booster:
2 Non-foil Booster Fun rare or mythic rare cards
Each slot can drop a non-foil movie poster card 8.7% of the time.
Each slot can drop a retro frame rare (41.7%) or mythic rare (14.8%) card.
Each slot can drop a different type of Booster Fun rare (29.6%) or mythic rare (5.2%) card.
And with this, we can make a table to tell us the drop rates:
They lump the Borderless, Fang, and Equinox frames together because they don’t want to make it easy on us, but math cannot be defeated!
None of these nonfoils are particularly difficult to pull, especially with two nonfoil slots, so when this product lands, the special frame nonfoils will be especially deep and might represent a very cheap entry point on some of these cards. The Movie Posters are the ones I’m most interested in, even though they haven’t all been revealed yet.
1 Traditional foil Booster Fun rare or mythic rare card
There is a 10% chance for a traditional foil movie poster card.
In less than 1% of Collector Boosters, this is replaced with a serialized double rainbow foil movie poster Edgar Markov.
There is a 41.1% chance for a traditional foil retro frame rare card.
There is a 14.6% chance for a traditional foil retro frame mythic rare card.
There is a 29.2% chance for a borderless, showcase equinox, or showcase fang rare card.
There is a 5.1% chance for a borderless, showcase equinox, or showcase fang mythic rare card.
And with this data, we can calculate our odds of pulling a foil.
Compared to the last couple of sets, these treatments are downright easy to pull from the INR packs, especially compared to the drop rates of Fractured Foils in Foundations, as the most recent example. Those packs’ easiest foil drop were any Foil Extended-Art rare, at 131 packs to get a specific card.
Innistrad Remastered is a bit more expensive, but to make up for it, nothing besides the serialized Edgar Markov is terribly difficult to get out of these packs. Statistically, you could get one of each of the special foils (aside from the serialized) in a mere ten boxes of Collector Boosters.
I want to take a beat here and do some comparisons with Ravnica Remastered, a set that wildly underperformed expectations. There, the hardest pull was Traditional Foil Retro Frame Mythic Rares, and those took 245 packs to get a specific card, or a little over twice as many packs needed compared to this new set.
It’s also worth using RVR as a comparison point for trying to figure the relative rarity of the Edgar Markov. For RVR, and the 64 potential serialized cards, it was exactly 1% to get any card, and 6400 packs to get a specific card.
With that ratio of 6400 packs, and 500 Edgars out there, that’s a print run of 3.2 million Collector Boosters, same as RVR. The lower drop rate of the other cards has me thinking it’s likely around half that, if not less. The Holiday Edition of the Lord of the Rings set was 1.5 million. Let’s do a little more math, and see where we can land. Remember, we know it’s less than 1%, but it’s likely a lot less than that.
Our initial estimate for the print run was 1.25 million packs, but after some more checking, we think it’s higher, at around the 2.5 million mark. That would be lower than Ravnica Remastered’s number of 3.2 million, a set that was underwhelming at the drop but has grown over the past year.
That many packs means it’s about 5000 packs to crack a serialized Markov, which is pretty darn rare in the scheme of these things. Are there 500 Vampires players with the deep pockets needed? We’ll find out.
As we get more information, I’ll update this section with more concrete data, but for now, that’s the best estimate I’ve got.
As for the rest of the set, I hope that this glimpse at the underlying numbers will help you make good decisions about the things you want to buy and when you want to buy them. If you have questions about the math or the methods, please feel free to reach out on social media or the ProTrader Discord!
Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
There’s been four Secret Lair decks so far: Coin Flips, Angels, Cats and Dogs, and Cute to Brute. In order, those go for $340, $420, $300 and $250 on TCGPlayer right now. All of them cost $150 to order off the website, and that is quite a pattern to set.
However, it’s been on sale for several days, and has barely gotten to the ‘low stock alert’ level. If it’s guaranteed money, why isn’t it sold out already?
Let’s get into the value of the cards, and the potential reasons why this deck hasn’t sold out yet, and my plan for this drop.
The sealed decks mentioned before, those prices are a bit misleading. Each of those decks has five newly foiled cards with new art, and the strong majority of those prices are held in those new cards. For each of the decks, let me break down the specifics:
Deck
New Art Double-Sided Foil Cards
Other cards > $5
Heads I Win, Tails You Lose
Zndrsplt, Eye of Wisdom Okaun, Eye of Chaos Propaganda Stitch in Time Krark’s Thumb
Goblin Engineer Sakashima the Impostor Whir of Invention Seize the Day Commander’s Plate Shadowspear Embercleave Academy Ruins Inventors’ Fair Training Center
Raining Cats and Dogs
Rin and Seri, Inseparable Jetmir, Nexus of Revels Jinnie Fay, Jetmir’s Second Anointed Procession Sol Ring
Brimaz, King of Oreskos Three Visits Skullclamp Lurking Predators Jetmir’s Garden
Angels: They’re Just Like Us but Cooler
Gisela, the Broken Blade Bruna, the Fading Light Archangel of Thune (single-sided) Court of Grace (single-sided) Commander’s Plate (single-sided)
Lightning Greaves Sword of the Animist Urza’s Incubator Emeria, the Sky Ruin Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
From Cute To Brute
Esika, God of the Tree // The Prismatic Bridge Archangel Avacyn // Avacyn, the Purifier Bloodline Keeper // Lord of Lineage Nicol Bolas, the Ravager // Nicol Bolas, the Arisen Westvale Abbey // Ormendahl, Profane Prince
(all ten are single-sided) Go-Shintai of Life’s Origin Approach of the Second Sun Felidar Sovereign Happily Ever After Triskaidekaphile Revel in Riches Helix Pinnacle Simic Ascendancy Sol Ring Maze’s End
Auriok Champion Dryad of the Ilysian Grove Heliod, Sun-Crowned Kynaios and Tiro of Meletis Seedborn Muse Clever Concealment Halo Fountain Mystic Remora Bountiful Promenade Reflecting Pool Wooded Bastion
Note: If you look up the last column of cards on TCGPlayer, you should look for ‘The List’ version, because these reprints have the little planeswalker symbol in the bottom left.
Until 20 Ways to Win, the decks were all printed to order, so that plays a big part in the quantity that were available. Only the people who wanted to order it got it, and a whole lot of those people kept it all. Speculators got some of the decks, sure, but it’s taken a while for those decks to gain value.
It’s also worth noting that the first four decks are much more upgradeable for the themes they have, so you could get the deck and add some sweet cards, with a great experience. The newest deck pulls you in a lot of different directions, but has little support for the twenty ways. For instance, there’s not a single other Shrine to trigger the Go-Shintai, and the only clone effect for Biovisionary is Rite of Replication.
My last point about these decklists is that several of these cards are going to take a hit as people dump the cards onto TCG after cracking it open. Clever Concealment and Kynaois and Tiro are two cards that were Commander sets only, and have a tiny amount in circulation. We’re about to get a good deal more, and those two especially should drop down a good deal before starting to slowly climb again.
Wizards has set the limit at two decks per account, and while there’s plenty of folks who have more than one account set up in order to bypass this exact sort of limitation, they don’t seem to have gone after this with the needed fervor to cause the deck to sell out. I would imagine that they used the numbers sold from the first four decks to tell them how many of this one to print, with maybe a bit extra added in.
What this deck lacks is the juicing with expensive cards that we got in the Marvel drops. Outside of the ten special cards, the aforementioned Commander reprints and the Heliod are the only extra-pricey ones at $10 or more. It would not have been difficult for Wizards to add a couple more cards and make sure it felt like a big value.
To be clear: I think this deck is a fine buy. It should gain in value slowly, but what I’d prefer to do is spend $300 on the foil singles when they become available. Revel in Riches in in 86,000 decks on EDHREC, and Approach of the Second Sun is close behind at 83,000. After that, there’s Triskaidekaphile at just under 60,000, just about as many as Simic Ascendancy, and then Felidar Sovereign is at 50,000. That’s a great set of targets when people start getting the decks in hand.
That way, I’m going after all the cards with high growth potential and unique art, without the large storage issue or the need to break down the sealed decks. The tanuki art should grow nicely over time, and are definitely the cards to target.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
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