By: Cliff Daigle

The new set of Commander preconstructed decks is coming out next week. The MSRP is going to be $34.99 and I’m here to tell you to stay away.

The only reasons to buy them are:

1. You have a small collection and want to have more cards for your decks to choose from.
2. You and others agree to use these as-is or some league-type variant with minimal changes.

There is not going to be money up for grabs in Commander 2015. At best you’ll acquire $40 or so in value, but retail value isn’t going to get it done.

If you are a professional at this, you don’t need me to tell you this information. But maybe you are new at this. Maybe you haven’t been exposed to what these decks mean.

There is not money to be made in anything but the original Commander set. Keep in mind, that was printed in 2011. The player base was significantly smaller, the format had just begun to take off, and then they waited two years to do it again.

If you look at the prices of the cards from that set, you notice how much more expensive they are. This is only due to scarcity. The cards are good, don’t get me wrong, but what made Scavenging Ooze a $45 card briefly was the very small number in circulation.

Let’s look at some examples. Containment Priest was infamously being bought for $40-$50 on the floor of GP New Jersey, as people sought sideboard options for Legacy Sneak and Show-type decks.

And now it isn’t. $11 and falling.

As time passes, the unique effects of a card can cause the price to go up. This is the case with Toxic Deluge:

It has yet to be a four-of, as for one more mana you get Damnation, but that mana is important! It’s creeping upward for about the past year, and this is unlikely to get a Standard printing.

Here’s the scenario I warned you about a couple of weeks ago, where casual cards get reprinted and never recover their value: Goblin Sharpshooter.

It lost half its value almost immediately, and then had further to fall. Black Market was spoiled this week, as I warned you about, and that’s the trajectory I’d expect it to follow.

It is going to be hard for you to take my advice. The first few days, the prices will be crazy. PucaTrade Will be full of people who want certain cards. I am advising you, very strongly, to not throw $40 away in the quest to make $46.

One of my very first articles for this site, printed more than two years ago, told you to be patient. This is advice I stand by. You will lose money and value trying to be the first one to get the new toys. All you need to do is wait 3 to 4 weeks.

Don’t bother with the reprints either. In the 2013 and 2014 releases, there has been exactly one card that has gone up in value: Wurmcoil Engine.

I want to repeat myself: I’m not saying these decks are bad to buy. What I am saying is that these decks will not have a strong return on your investment if you are trying to sell or trade them to other people.

Please do not bring up True-Name Nemesis. There was a time where you could buy the deck, sell that card, and then keep the remaining value.

Wizards’ stated goal is to keep this a casual product. When Legacy players bought the decks up, they made sure that the second printing had extra copies of Mind Seize.

We have the example and we have the history. I will be spending probably $15 (tops) worth of Pucapoints to get the few cards I want. I think that too many people fixate on the original Commander product, without understanding the numbers and time involved. You can still find Built from Scratch in stores and on eBay for MSRP, and that has a Wurmcoil in it!

If you look at the buylist prices for the last two Commander releases, you’ll see that they are proportionally lower than most other cards, because stores know they can get these cards just by opening a package.

Let’s be specific for a moment. Let’s say you want five of the cards in a given Commander deck, so you buy the deck and get your cards. Great! Now you have 60-80 other cards as trade bait, depending on how many of them you want to keep. Selling them is going to get you about 30-40 percent of the trade value, and trading them is going to take forever. My favorite example was Mind Seize, because people took out 2-3 cards and sold the rest on eBay for $10 or less.

So, just to sum it up for you: You should only buy the new Commander decks if you want to use most or all of the cards in the deck. If you want a few choice singles, you’ll be best served by waiting a couple of weeks and trading for/buying the singles.

Oh, and make sure you look at your deck and decide what you’re taking out first. If you can’t decide, don’t get the new card. Simple way to save a little hassle.

---

 

By: Cliff Daigle

I love variations on a known format. I enjoy drafting variants, adding Emperor or Planechase to things, and I even enjoyed the surge of Tiny Leaders interest earlier this year.

It’s a lot of fun to take something you know and apply it in a new way.

If your Twitter feed is anything like mine, you’ve seen more and more mentions of a format called Canadian Highlander, and just as Tiny Leaders offered us some financial opportunities, CH does as well.

Canadian Highlander works a lot like Commander. They are both singleton formats, with 100 cards in the deck. In fact, Canadian can allows up to and over 200 cards, if that’s what you want.

Canadian lacks the ‘Elder Dragon’ portion, focusing instead on the Highlander aspect. There can be only one of a given card, but most interestingly, you can play with anything, with these exceptions: No silver borders, no ante cards, no Conspiracies, no dexterity cards, and no Shahrazad. Yes, you can play your gold-border cards! You can even break out your Championship Deck cards!

Your life total is a mere 20 points, instead of EDH’s 40.

All other cards are legal. Moxes. Lotus. Library of Alexandria. Fastbond. Rofellos.

 

Everything is permitted! Plus, there’s no commander dictating what colors you play! Ultimate freedom!

Well…except for a list of a few cards which have been given point values, and a deck can have 7 points for every 100 cards.

This is a fascinating way to build a deck. In many ways, it looks at what the most ‘problematic’ cards are and forces you to only have some of them. What does your deck need most? What do you value most?

If you’re tired of the complaints and annoyances of different EDH playgroups, about who plays infinite combos and who doesn’t, Canadian Highlander is for you. Play combo all you want, as long as your deck fits the points. Time Vault is five points, so you can’t play that alongside Demonic Tutor. Choose wisely!

Canadian Highlander is a fun format allowing you to play a lot of cards that Commander doesn’t allow, and that is what represents the biggest financial opportunities.

There is no banlist, and that is the main point. If Canadian takes off, even into a brief spike as Tiny Leaders did, then we should look at the cards that stand to gain the most.

The Power Ten (Library should be counted) are already too expensive, but there are other things to look at.

Tinker – The nonfoil is $5, the foils are $11. It’ll never be unbanned in any format, there are just too many broken things to go find. That’s also why it stands to gain if the format gains attention, there’s just so many awesome things to go find!

Birthing Pod – When a card is too good for Modern, it’s worth paying attention to. It’s hard to build a consistent deck in a 100-card format, but you can take inspiration from what Kiki-Pod decks did, winning from a one-drop and a two-drop with Pod in play. Sacrifice a two to get Deceiver Exarch or Pestermite, untap the Pod. Sacrifice a one-drop to get Phantasmal Image, copy the Exarch, untap Pod. Sac that (it costs three as a copy) and get Restoration Angel, flicker Exarch, untap Pod, sacrifice that Angel and get Kiki-Jiki, the Mirror Breaker. Good Game.

So I like having foil Pod at $20, and even regulars are under $5.

Tolarian Academy – It’s $25 already but this is one of the cards that could really bust out. It’s a Vintage staple, it’s one of the most unfair cards ever, and it demands answers.

Gifts Ungiven – Because this isn’t banned in Modern yet, it’s still at nearly $10. The power cannot be denied, though, and if Canadian takes off this would be a card that could gain a lot of value.

Fastbond – at only $5 for the Revised version, part of me wants to laugh at the idea of actually buying these, considering how many of these I threw away as a teenager. The value will be there, though, because it’s a small price for dumping all your mana on the table.

Channel – I would focus on the FTV version at around $6, as that’s the only foil version to be had.

Balance – There have been a few additional printings of this card, and your choice of foil versions to be had. It’s a backbreaking card when a deck uses it right, and this is a card that really punished aggressive decks too.

Emrakul, the Aeons Torn – I don’t care that it just got reprinted, I want a few to keep safe for when they go up, because they will.

All of these listed cards would probably do well as long-term speculation holds, because they are unlikely to be printed again. I’m officially on record as no longer predicting what Wizards will or won’t do, though, so be aware that anything not on the reserved list is fair game.

---

 

By: Cliff Daigle

The new Commander set is almost here, and while there’s been a lot of talk about what might get reprinted, today I want to look at some cards that could be reprinted and take a big hit, financially. These are cards that trade well in EDH circles but represent limited quantities due to age or set, and I don’t want to be caught with these once their value goes down.

This is direct contrast to what I advocated last week, about the expensive cards holding their price when reprinted in an Event Deck or Clash Pack. The Commander precons have a larger printing than either of those.

Some examples of what I mean:

Caged Sun lost $2-$3 of its value, having been printed in Commander 2014. Chaos Warp lost about 30% of its value. Baleful Strix fell by more than half. I’m looking out for cards that have gotten significant constructed play, or are popular in casual formats, but have only been printed once or twice.

One interesting thing to note is that because the Commander decks are all non-foil, the foil versions of the cards I’m going to list are relatively safe, especially if they are in the pre-Mirrodin frame.

Bribery (currently $16) – This has two large printings, Mercadian Masques and 8th Edition. By modern standards, that’s a relatively small amount of cards and this is one of the premier cards to cast in Commander or Cube, making this a card I don’t want to keep. This would easily drop to below $10 and maybe as low as $5.

Black Market ($13) – You haven’t lived until you’ve had this in play for a couple of turns, watching things die and being so very thrilled about it. Much like Braid of Fire ($10) this hearkens back to when extra mana meant pain. With that rule no longer in effect, these cards have steadily climbed and would take a big hit, likely down to the $5 range. 

Food Chain ($16) – There are now two creatures to go infinite with this card, Misthollow Griffin and Torrent Elemental. It’s seeing fringe Legacy play as well, and would likely go down by half or more if it was in the new Commander decks.

Phyrexian Altar ($17) – This enables all sorts of shenanigans but hasn’t seen a reprint ever. That’s kept the quantity incredibly low, and a reprint would easily drop this below $10, if not farther.

Aggravated Assault ($11) – There’s a lot of combos with this card. Bear Umbra is one but Savage Ventmaw is a new and spicy one to add to a mega-attacker deck. While there’s been a few cards for extra attacks, this is the most reusable one.

Gratuitous Violence ($5) – The usual use for this card is in pinger-style decks, like tapping Kamhal, Pit Fighter to do six damage. But use it with Heartless Hidetsugu and threaten the table with immediate and game-ending retribution.

Seedborn Muse ($12) – This has had three printings but none within the last eight years. It’s going to take a hit but the ability is so good that the price will eventually come back. This is also a strong candidate for banning in Commander, which would hurt the price as well.

Oblivion Stone ($32) – An inclusion in older Commander printings, it would fall by at least ten dollars, and maybe as much as twenty. It’s fantastic in all sorts of formats, so even if it isn’t reprinted now, it will be again.

Extraplanar Lens ($12) – I could not believe how much this has grown in price. What’s really silly is how people will play 20-30 snow-covered basics in order to give the benefit to just themselves, and that’s why snow lands have the price they do. Don’t forget this is card disadvantage, and only good in mono-colored decks. As such, a reprint would drop this to $2 or less.

Auriok Champion ($28) – It’s awesome in Soul Sisters decks, and there’s a very good chance that the black/white deck has a lifegain theme. A reprint here would drop it to $10 or less.

Staff of Domination ($26) – It spiked hard after being unbanned, but it’s only used in infinite-mana decks. I could easily see this dropping to $5, because only a few decks want this effect.

Minamo, School at Water’s Edge ($20), Shinka, Bloodsoaked Keep ($2), Eiganjo Castle ($8), Shizo, Death’s Storehouse ($8), and Okina, Temple to the Grandfathers ($5)

These are all due to be reprinted and will take a big hit when it happens. Champions of Kamigawa was a block that undersold, and that means there’s a lot of scarcity at work. There weren’t all that many copies of Minamo to start with, and they’ve all been snapped up over time. I singled out these five lands, but so much of this block is overpriced that really don’t want to be sitting on anything from this period.

Cloudstone Curio ($15) – It’s seeing some play in Elves decks, which really enjoy bouncing a creature over and over. The effect can be very powerful, even if it seems to only enable twenty-minute turns.

Rings of Brighthearth ($19) – This is such a narrow effect, but the decks that want it REALLY want it. There aren’t many, though, and a reprint would drop this by more than half.

Mana Reflection ($20) – I think this would come back to about this price if it were reprinted, but I’m mentioning it because it’ll take a hit. Eventually, it’ll come back, like Wurmcoil Engine has.

Regal Force ($15) – Green doesn’t have much card draw. Combine with the aforementioned Curio for maximum drawing.

Master of the Wild Hunt ($14) – Every time this isn’t reprinted, it goes up a dollar. The streak will end, and it will end hard.

Oracle of Mul Daya ($14) – This has the potential to rebound as well, though decks have Courser of Kruphix as well now.

Fauna Shaman ($13) – The ‘fixed’ Survival of the Fittest, this is just super-useful for not just tutoring but enabling graveyard plays. It’s five years old, though, and the supply is the only reason for the price.

Linvala, Keeper of Silence ($35) – She wasn’t in the FTV this summer, she’s avoided all reprint opportunities so far. Doesn’t change the fact that her low supply, moderate Modern play, and tribal appeal account for this price. She would easily lose half her value and likely more.

Nirkana Revenant ($17) – Doubling your mana is an effect that never loses appeal, and this comes with a built-in way to use all that extra mana. Rise of the Eldrazi is a set with great appeal and low quantity, so a reprint would hit the value hard.

Lighthouse Chronologist ($10) – The most expensive of the Level Up cards, we do so love to take extra turns. A reprint would hurt the price, down to six or seven dollars, but it might recover over time.

Asceticism ($7) – This would not recover. It’s a rare from five years ago, and it would be lucky to stay at $2 if it were in a Commander set.

Darksteel Plate ($7) – I’ve used this as an example for years of what casual appeal can do for a card’s price. This is everything you want, except maybe for hexproof. This is another card that would be hit into the $2 range.

Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite ($15), Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger ($18), Urabrask the Hidden ($7), Jin-Gitaxias, Core Augur ($9), and Sheoldred, Whispering One ($13)

We have Sheoldred as a prerelease promo, Elesh Norn was just in Modern Masters 2015, and the others haven’t gotten a second wind yet. They are all good at different things and will easily drop by half if the cycle was added to the set of decks. I especially enjoy how Urabrask is a way to stymie Splinter Twin combos.

I deliberately left off some uncommons and commons, because those are even harder to predict. But if there are other cards you want to mention, that’s what the comment section is for!

---

 

By: Cliff Daigle

Hangarback Walker, Whisperwood Elemental, Tasigur, the Golden Fang, Evolutionary Leap, Warden of the First Tree, Llanowar Wastes.

These are the latest cards of value to be put into an Event Deck, and the latest to take a hit straight to the value as a result. In some cases, there was an immediate loss of value as people panic-sold and stores changed their listed prices, for the buying and the selling of the card.

However, I’m here to make the case that being reprinted this way is not as awful as you might think, and actually represents an opportunity.

Let’s start with the precedent and the flag bearer for preconstructed deck inclusions: Umezawa’s Jitte.

For the longest time, before the price graph shows, this was rock-steady at $20. During its time in Standard, Extended, and after that in Legacy, this has been one of the best equipment ever. (I’ll listen if you want to talk about the Swords or Batterskull, but really, this would get my vote.) Why was such a good card only $20? The preconstructed deck Rats’ Nest. Simply having the card available in a $20 precon meant that there was a price ceiling, even as there was a very small chance of finding it at that price. Even now, with a Grand Prix promo out there, it’s got a relatively low price for a card this old and this good, due to price memory from being in the deck.

This principle applies in the modern day: being in the Event Deck lowers the price briefly but can’t add too much quantity.

How about an example of Wizards trying, I mean REALLY trying, to make a card accessible through Event Deck printings?

Thragtusk was a lowly Core Set rare. Granted, that was Magic 2013, presumed to be a smaller print run than Magic Origins, and that was also before a lot of current players started, but it was THE card to have against blue decks. Or aggressive decks. Or removal-heavy decks. Or anything, really. It’s value coming, going, and in between. Imagine Abzan or other Den Protector decks with this card!

Wizards wanted everyone to have as many Thragtusks as they wanted. To this end, on top of the original supply, this was added to three Event decks in a row: M13, Return to Ravnica, and Gatecrash. For a card that was seeing heavy Standard play, that was the only way for the price to get down to what Wizards felt was a reasonable one. Look at the beginning of the chart and that $25 tag. It still took three additional printings to lower it to $5, and by then, rotation was imminent, which likely did more for lowering the price.

Thragtusk was at $25 and started going down immediately. It never stabilized because of the repeated printings during its year in Standard. Other cards have not gotten the same treatment.
Let’s look at Godless Shrine.

Notice that blip around June 2013? In early May, the Dragon’s Maze Event Deck was spoiled and there was one Godless Shrine in the deck, so it took a hit. The downward trend lasted for about a month, and then it ticked back upward. The card was good enough that while it didn’t rebound completely, it held much of its value.

Same thing with Hallowed Fountain, a one-of in the Theros Event Deck.

The Clash Pack is another method of increasing quantity of a card, as evidenced by Courser of Kruphix:

See that dip in the middle? Right before it made it to $25? That’s the Clash Pack copies hitting the market, and in the flood the price fell hard…and then came back by the time the new set was released.

I’m not trying to make the statement that all the cards given an auxiliary printing will eventually regain their value. That’s not true at all, and there’s a long list of $5 or less rares that got reprinted and struggled to break $1 after the re-release. That’s likely the fate in store for Evolutionary Leap, Warden of the First Tree, and Llanowar Wastes.

What I am saying is that the better cards, the already-expensive cards, those are very likely to bounce back. I’m specifically looking at Hangarback Walker, Tasigur, the Golden Fang, and Whisperwood Elemental.

Hangarback has lost a couple of dollars in the last weeks since the announcement, and for a card seeing as much play as it is, that’s a very good sign for the card and our opportunity to gain value from it. I’m hoping that it goes down to $10 once the decks are on sale, because there’s still a whole year for it to go back up, and that doesn’t even count the appeal outside of Standard.

The current dip means this is the time to buy in, even if it doesn’t go below $14. It’ll be $20 or more by Valentine’s Day, and that’s value we can use.

Tasigur is in an interesting spot. Many of my peers here are preaching the foils, and I’m on board. I also think he’s good enough to hold a $10 price tag in a year when he rotates, because he’s big and easy to cast and has a great ability in older formats. It’s fascinating how on the day of announcement, he fell $2, but the demand is there.

This principle also applies to the Clash Packs, and to some extent the Commander precons. The cards that were expensive stays that way, and will likely recover most of their price. Let’s use Collected Company as an example:

See that diagonal slide in July? The Clash Pack decklist was spoiled on July 9th of this year. We still have a lot of time for this to creep back up, especially because that particular card is already seeing Modern play in a variety of decks.

So in closing, I want you to see reprints as opportunities. I’m still sitting on two playsets of Hangarback, and I’m giving serious consideration to a third.as the playset price creeps to $50 on eBay. If there’s other examples of cards resisting the reprint effect, list them in the comments!

---