Category Archives: Casual Fridays

Exile for Value

By: Cliff Daigle

So the spoilers are rolling in this week and there’s a lot of excitement. I personally can’t wait to trigger the new Kiora’s ultimate, which Aaron Forsythe described on Twitter as ‘Octo-Fight’ and that is the best name for anything ever!

What I’m most intrigued by, though, is how the Eldrazi have the ingest mechanic and then have processor effects that make use of the exiled cards. So far, Oblivion Sower is the only one that can provide mega-value, since it can get back lots of lands at once.

This got me thinking, though. Since the Eldrazi want to see exiled cards and not just ones exiled with ingest, I want to look for the casual cards that can exile things and might see a spike if people start adding lots of Eldrazi to their Commander decks and the like.

Put another way: Two years ago, Nekusar, the Mindrazer decks became all the rage and some cards saw significant gains. I want to get ahead of those spikes this time, only instead of drawing and discarding as the key abilities, exiling is now the keyword I’m looking for.

One caveat: We don’t have the full spoiler so it’s possible that some of these are reprinted. If that’s the case, I’m totally wrong on the value.

Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver – As a rotating Planeswalker, I like picking him up now at a pretty low cost. He hasn’t seen much eternal play, but the ability to exile from the library, and then use those cards, is pretty sweet. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was $10 by Christmas.

Deathrite Shaman – This is a card that is too good for Modern, so you can imagine I’m a big fan in casual formats. You want some graveyard interactions for the long games or to stop things from looping, and this gives you a bonus every time you do. People should be playing this already, and so I think gains are unlikely.

Gravestorm – Exactly the type of card I’m looking for. It’s a rare from an older set, it’s got a low buy-in, and the effect is awesome. You get the exiling you want or you get to draw a card. Winners all around! I think this has a great chance to go up in value.

Nezumi Graverobber – If you haven’t played this before, consider doing so soon. I know the card is visually difficult, being a flip card, but a creature that says “4B: Zombify a creature” is worth the effort and the reading. It’s from Champions of Kamigawa and a reprint in the original Commander set, so while it might double to $1.50 it’ll be tough to see much cash profit.

Angel of Finality – I think this is an easy card to add to any white deck and more people should play her. A bump is unlikely, though.

Bitter Ordeal – While I’d like to see this cast for less than infinity, it pretty much only gets cast after some endless loop. Processors and the like will not affect this value.

Bojuka Bog – This would be a great pick to go up in price if it hadn’t been in three of the four Commander sets.

Cemetery Reaper – Even the foils of this are low, and while the ability is useful and relevant, there’s too many copies to make an impact.

Circu, Dimir Lobotomist – I sort of like this one, though the new Eldrazi are all explicitly colorless. There’s a surprisingly small number of ways to just exile the top of their deck. I would expect this to climb a dollar or two in the near future.

Creakwood Ghoul – It’s a way to gain some life but you have to spend a lot of mana. It’s not terrible, and there is lifegain, but the financial impact will be low.

Crypt Incursion – A useful effect, but it’s only creatures. I keep that in mind when I think about amazing Oblivion Sower plays.

Grimoire Thief – This has a lot of potential, but attacking more than once or twice might require too much work to make it worthwhile. Still, it fits my criteria of being an older rare and has a surprisingly useful effect. Just think how many lands Oblivion Sower gets if you’ve tapped the Thief a couple of times.

Honor the Fallen – A mass-effect version of Crypt Incursion. Find which you like best.

Identity Crisis – I love this card but it’s such a late-game play that it might not be worth it. Still, at less than fifty cents, it would be a low-risk speculation.

Jund Charm – One of the modes is relevant for the processors, and the other two modes are just handy to have. This has appeared in Modern sideboards, and might be worth keeping some foils around on.

Karn Liberated – He does exactly what the Eldrazi need, but the mana cost and the financial cost are just too high for our purposes.

Knacksaw Clique – I play this in my Experiment Kraj Commander deck, and it’s a great combo. Eldrazi will appreciate the ability and again, it’s a low-cost rare with the potential to go up.

Merrow Bonegnawer – Costs no mana, can be done more than once a turn, might be everything you want it to be.

Moratorium Stone – Choosing which card to exile is a good ability to have in Commander games, but I doubt there will be a run on this card.

Morningtide – It’s half of Rest in Peace at the same speed.

Necrogenesis – If only there had been a single printing of this! Or even only one foil! It’s what we want but the value will never be there.

Night Soil – There was a chance but no.

Oona, Queen of the Fae – Now we are talking. This is what Eldrazi of all sorts will feast upon: Scalable exile, and you get a benefit for doing so. There’s a lot of copies out there, though, so there might be only a modest increase in value due to her three versions. None is less than two years old, though.

Ornate Kanzashi – It’s five mana, yes, but if exile effects take off this is one of the ones that had a lot of power. It’s close to ‘draw a card’ and it fits all of our criteria for this speculative line of thought, since it’s a rare from Betrayers of Kamigawa.

Perilous Vault – It’s about to rotate and that means the price is up for grabs. I doubt it’ll be much lower, and it’s a worthy thing to buy a playset of and then set aside for a while. This is highly reprintable, though, just as a warning.

Pharika, God of Affliction – Mostly, I hate that your opponent gets the snake tokens, but when an Eldrazi comes along that can return exiled creatures to play (it’ll happen!) then this will get a lot better.

Phyrexian Furnace – Again, it does what we need, and it comes down early.

Planar Void – This or Leyline of the Void accomplish the same task, though they aren’t good if drawn late.

Psychic Surgery – If you’ve ever wanted to annoy people in Commander, cast this on turn two when people are still searching and fetching and such. If you can exile for value, this gets significantly better.

Rakdos Charm – I love having this in Commander, because so often you meet people going infinite shenanigans. It’s a shame that Twin players are ready for instants.

Rats’ Feast – It’s one shot and hits one graveyard. Not ideal but might be passable, and it’s a bulk rare. Not much can be lost if you bought twenty at ten cents each.

Relic of Progenitus – Just like Phyrexian Furnace, though I’m not sure how many of this effect a single deck wants.

Rest in Peace – A card I went deep on in the block and it hasn’t paid off yet. Maybe the Eldrazi are the ones that I’ve been waiting for? This sees a little sideboard play in Modern and Legacy, though, so there’s a chance.

Samurai of the Pale Curtain – Just like Anafenza, the Foremost, this prevents creature loops but doesn’t affect other card types.

Scavenging Ooze – Heck yes. There’s a lot of copies out there and while it does see light play in the older formats, there’s enough of them so that a big jump in price is pretty unlikely. Maybe just the promo, if you’re into that.

Scrabbling Claws – Third artifact with this set of abilities, even if it’s a minor set it’s nice to have redundancy..

Stonecloaker – For 2W, you can exile a card at instant speed in response to something, and then be ready to do it again if you so desire. That seems decent, but few of us keep the mana up before the hijinks start. It’s also had three printings, so if you want to have a chance at returns, go for the foils at $5 each. At the least, they won’t go down.

Suffer the Past – This is more of a game-ender, but at least it’s an X spell with X effect.

Tormod’s Crypt – A perfect card for our purposes, except that it’s been printed way too many times.

Villainous Wealth – Whatever you didn’t cast (lands!) you can return to the graveyard. You ought to be playing this anyway.

Void Maw – It’ll only have an effect after you’ve played this six-drop and the C13 cards aren’t that hard to find. I like it for a very modest gain.

Withered Wretch – This is so utility you should have it in your Cube already. The downside is that it’s got several printings and even multiple foils to choose from. Picking them up won’t break your bank but you are going to have a hard time moving these in quantity, unless there’s a severe and unexpected surge.


 

Calm Down!

By: Cliff Daigle

So the Battle for Zendikar preview event at PAX was last weekend, and there were some cards spoiled, and everyone went and lost their minds over the Expeditions, special foil-only, full-art lands that will show up a little more often than a foil mythic in booster packs.

My current understanding is that Battle for Zendikar will have 25 of these.  

I’ve seen a lot of people on Twitter and other articles decrying this super-mega-mythic chase rarity. I’ve added a little to those fires, I admit, trying to call these new lands “crappy duals” or “electrocution lands” (since they are worse than shock lands).

Allow me to say this clearly and rationally: Calm down about these new lands.

When foils were introduced, it was a nod to collectors. Mythics were introduced to improve Limited play but not having Planeswalkers as regular rares.

These Expedition lands are there for the same crowd as the Comic-Con black Planeswalkers: collectors. If you care about having one of these new lands, you’re in the same boat as people paying for the judge foil Terese Nielsen lands, or the promo Force of Will, or having the old-frame Swords of X and Y.

Two years ago, I asked, “Are you a Collector?” and I hope you know the answer to that question in yourself. If you have had the thought about these lands “I can’t wait to snag an Expeditions Steam Vents! But oh my goodness, what are four of them going to cost me?!” then you’re a collector.

Let me reiterate: These super-duper-mega-mythic cards are not new. These are reprints! This supply will be rather small and not affect current paper prices all that much.

I’m also of the opinion that these are UGLY. These aren’t full-art. These aren’t Player Rewards full art, or Game Day full art, with or without the bars across the text that they started doing recently. These are three-quarters art, with a weird hedron frame, and semi-see-through as Planeswalkers are.

If I open one of these, I’m going to move it out. I’m going to ask for the moon in trade and I’m going to get it from someone with more cards than sense. I know it could fit into almost any Commander deck of mine, and I don’t care. If I need fetches, they are already in decks. If I need filters or shocks, I’ll take care of that, likely on the cheap. 

To me, the play on these lands is to get rid of them. Looking at the judge foil fetches, they didn’t see a spike or a loss when it was announced that they would be in Khans of Tarkir, and so whatever the initial price is, that’s what they will stay at for the duration. Go ahead and hold it till the end of the block if you want, but I would be more than stoked to open these and then trade them for a big stack of regular shock lands, or anything else that you wanted to have.

How much would I ask for? Everything. Collectors want these things bad, and you should give it to them. Don’t be afraid to say “Well, this Expeditions Polluted Delta closed an eBay auction at $200, so I’d want $250 to $300 in retail value of cards.” These cards are going to be hard to find and even harder to dig up in trade, especially at the beginning.

I’m also going to refer you to two ProTrader articles earlier this week, explaining in more detail about what these lands are and how they affect the other cards around them.

As for the speculation about why Wizards did this, I think it’s to give an echo of what they did in Zendikar with the Treasures campaign, only this time, they are being upfront about it. There was never any official data revealed about how many of which card was opened, and while there were Power cards opened, there was also Cyclopean Tomb.

This time, we will know exactly what’s out there and about how many of them there are. Is this better or worse than what happened in 2009? Does having the information make the quest easier or harder?

I would object to super-mega-rarity if it was for new cards. Mythics aren’t that hard to find, but a fifth rarity is a concern. Since these are reprints, though, it’s not a big deal. Imagine if these Expeditions were given out as judge foils or a special event or something or other.

One thing seems like a given: Battle for Zendikar will be the most opened set in Magic history. Don’t expect anything from this set to have legs, financially.


 

Setting Up for Future Spikes

By: Cliff Daigle

I can admit it: I have four Hero’s Downfall left in my binder

They are still with me despite doing all I could to get rid of them in the months leading up to today. They sit there, tormenting me with their fallen value, their reminder of how they were over $10 at one point.

It’s a great card, don’t get me wrong, but since it’s rotating in a little more than a month there’s almost no one who needs them and zero people who will buy them. It sees almost no Modern or Legacy play, and while it’s a great card in Commander or Cube, it’s not a staple and it’s very common.

So I’m going to slide these four cards out of my binder and put them into a box of cards I’d like to make money on, but I likely won’t see an increase in value for some time. Call it a spec box, call it binder chaff, whatever label you want. I’m not going to to carry them around any more.

I like to look for cards that do something unique, and have a few of them set aside for the time when someone builds a deck that does something bananas, and sell into that spike. Think Lantern of Insight and the like.

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx ($6/$31)

This is a tricky one to evaluate. Nykthos has showed up a little in Modern lists, but the foil split indicates that there’s a very strong demand in singleton formats like Commander and Cube. To be fair, the card is absolutely a win-more enabler, making gobs of mana when you already have a lot of permanents out there. Gaea’s Cradle is worse than a basic forest when you have no creatures in play.

I’m going to advocate holding your copies of Nykthos. Being in Magic 2015’s Clash Pack put some extra copies out there but it has good appeal and in a year or two I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s gone up by 50% or more.

 

Sylvan Caryatid ($2/$5/$5 promo)

This is also making a small dent in Modern, popping up in four-color Gifts Ungiven decks that are trying to combo off at maximum speed. It’s okay in kitchen table formats, and as a creature that has hexproof and taps for mana, it’ll often find a home in combo decks or the like.

This was a buy-a-box promo and that does chip away at the price for the foils and for people who need only one. At rotation, I’ll be looking for copies under $1 to sock away for a while.

 

Elspeth, Sun’s Champion ($6/$14/$6 Duel Deck foil)

Having a duel deck version doesn’t faze me on picking up more than a few of the latest (and last?) Elspeth. Her abilities play together exceptionally well, and the only thing she can’t hold off is a swarm of tiny fliers. Her earlier incarnations have held up well, financially, and Knight-Errant is so good that it took several printings to bring her under $20, to her current $14.

I think that Elspeth won’t ever see a big spike, but she will see steady upward growth in the next couple of years. That’s one of the easiest ways to increase the value in my binder: Just be patient.

 

Master of Waves ($4/$10)

I wouldn’t mind having a spare playset of these to just tuck away and wait. They aren’t going to go any lower, as they fit well in token decks and Merfolk decks alike.

 

Garruk, Apex Predator ($8/$21)

This Garruk and Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker share a unique characteristic: They are able to kill other Planeswalkers for profit. That makes them wonderful to have in Commander games.

The rule has often been to pick up any planeswalker at $5 or less, but I don’t think Garruk will come down that far. I’m still happy to acquire copies at less than $10 and simply wait. He’s got a promo from San Diego Comic-Con that I wouldn’t chase very hard, but incremental growth over time will serve this one well.

 

Perilous Vault ($4/$13)

Another unique effect, and one that fits very well into colorless sweepers. It lacks the one-sided effect of Nevinyrral’s Disk plus Darksteel Forge, but it is an awesome answer to that same combo. I love having options for exiling permanents in Commander games, but this is easily reprintable. I wouldn’t keep more than two playsets for the long term for that reason.

 

Searing Blood ($.80/$5)

This is mostly a pass for me. Standard burn decks are packing this card, and while Legacy and Modern have Searing Blaze, which is both better and worse, depending on what your thought process is. Searing Blaze does give us a reference point, as it’s a touch more expensive than Searing Blood, but it’s not crazy-high. I’m not convinced that it’ll make huge inroads, as it’s mostly found in small sideboard quantities.

 

Nyx-Fleece Ram ($1/$4)

I think that this is in a tight race with Wall of Omens for a crucial spot that Wall of Denial used to occupy: The go-to place to stay safe from aggressive decks. At rotation, this should fall a little further and I would be happy to grab a few.

There are a lot of other cards that will likely go up, so tell me in the comments what you think is good value for a year or two from now.

The Fall of Origins

By: Cliff Daigle

I know that we’re drooling over the trickle of information regarding Battle for Zendikar, but this is the time to look at Magic Origins and see how prices have changed.

The first thing I want to look at is if boosters are worth it now. They usually aren’t, but I always like to make sure. You never know…

There are 71 rares and mythics in the set, and only eighteen of them are worth more than the $4 cost of a pack. That’s only a 25% chance of making your money back, and I leave it up to you if you’re comfortable at that level of risk.

In case it hasn’t been made clear, unless you’re getting boxes for about $75, which comes out to about $2 per pack, don’t open packs for value. It’s just not there. Go buy a playset of whatever you need, if it’s Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy or if it’s Demonic Pact. You’ll spend less on the singles and still get your value directly.

I also want to look at the trajectory of some cards, since we don’t have that much longer. Once Origins is no longer opened, the prices will mostly stay where they are, except for the ones that spike due to new interactions with new cards.

 

Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy

Jace has gone up more than $10 so far and he might not be done. It’s been a long time since there was a cheap, playable looter in Standard and there are a lot of interactions that aren’t fully utilized yet. For instance, Jace is pretty amazing in a Jeskai Ascendancy deck, though those decks haven’t broken out yet.

Snapcaster Mage has taught us the value of adding flashback at no cost, and Jace has popped up in a couple of Legacy events already. At $25, I feel this is a nice stable price, but it woin’t take much for that price to bump higher, especially if Jace demonstrates he’s worthy in eternal formats or combo decks.

 

 

Liliana, Heretical Healer

Liliana is seeing less play than Jace is but her price hasn’t really come down to reflect that. She’s not in high-finishing decks, and she’s not played as a four-of. Her price is too high and I expect it to travel downward.

 

Hangarback Walker

The only decks that shouldn’t play this are the ones that are trying to play an aggressive strategy. This is phenomenal when trying to grind card advantage, or even when deployed on turn two to be a 1/1 and then a 1/1 again, purely for blocking and delay purposes. If given the chance it’ll simply take over the game.

It’s at $18 right now after solid growth and I think that it’s probably hit its height. This is a great candidate for Event Decks or a Clash Pack, something to push more copies out there because the casual demand is also quite high.

 

Exquisite Firecraft

A rare sorcery-speed burn spell is nearly $10?!? I’d be selling these hard and fast. It is flexible, yes, but it’s only getting played in aggro red decks and it’s at the post-PT high point. When it gets back to $4-$5 then I’d like to pick them up again.

 

Abbot of Keral Keep

Another card that’s heavy on the post-PT hype, notice that the card isn’t seeing play outside of one archetype so far. It hasn’t been added to Legacy or Modern yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised. Until that happens, though, I don’t like speculating on a card with this high a price. I’m a seller at $9-$10.

 

Day’s Undoing

Capture

So this was one of the biggest preorder prices of the set and the card has been falling since. It’s still $10 despite seeing almost no play. It has showed up in a couple of Legacy decks, mainly as a three-mana ‘draw 7’ effect which isn’t really breaking it. Price memory is keeping this where it is. Get out for the best price you can.

 

Thopter Spy Network

This card is pretty amazing, especially with Darksteel Citadel in the format. Once that’s gone, and the ‘free’ artifact isn’t an option, I expect there to be a lot less decks playing this enchantment. Sell all the ones you don’t need, right now.

 

Woodland Bellower

I think this card is intriguing. Right now, it’s mainly searching up something like Courser of Kruphix, Invasive Species, or my favorite use, Reclamation Sage. What I’m thinking about is that every nonlegendary green creature printed in the next year makes this card better. I’m also looking hard at the foils, because Commander loves this card so very much! I’m hoping the foils trickle down to the $10 range.

Don’t lose sight of the uncommons, specifically Sphinx’s Tutelage and Whirler Rogue, because we only have five weeks until the Prerelease. Orgins is a little blah to draft, so I imagine that there will be almost no stores choosing to open Origins at Friday Night Magic once Battle for Zendikar is out.