By: Cliff Daigle

In Magic, the sideboard is a powerful tool. It allows for flexibility and power in different types of matchups. It also offers the unparalleled chance to turn a bulk rare into a $10 card.

Today, I want to go over some cards that are seeing some sideboard play in Modern and Legacy. These mostly aren’t four-of, so people are often willing to spend a little more for the foil, resulting in some surprising splits. There is a chance that if a card proves to be popular/effective in a sideboard strategy, that it may go even bigger.

I’m focusing on the foils today, but you’re free to think about the non-foils as well.

Two examples I want to mention:

Teferi’s Response ($1/$16)

Smash to Smithereens ($3/$17)

This is the downside of speculating. We live in an era when reprints are becoming more and more common, and this card is in the midst of losing value since being announced in Modern Masters 2015. It was more than $5 in February, and the foil has slipped a couple of dollars as well. I’ll be interested to see where the foils end up, as Modern Masters is going to add a significant supply of shiny cards. This was a common in Shadowmoor, but is an amazing sideboard card in Burn strategies.

Now, let’s look at some cards that have potential to grow:

Feed the Clan ($.21/$.66) and Rest for the Weary ($.26/$.76)

I can hear you from here. “Lifegain cards? What?” I understand that reaction, but hear me out. In a Burn deck, which is always an option in Legacy, gaining 8 or 10 life is worth two or three cards to the fireslinger. Rest for the Weary is probably more consistent, but being green and two more life might end up making Feed the Clan an option.

Timely Reinforcements ($.56/$8)

It’s already an $8 foil, it’s true, but this card is such a backbreaker against Burn or aggro strategies that I think it can go higher. Two cards’ worth of life and three blockers is a lot to get from three mana. It’s easy to cast in a lot of decks, which is a big point in its favor.

Kor Firewalker ($.60/$5/promo foil $3)

Speaking of a backbreaker, this is a very tough card for a Burn deck to deal with, and the only thing keeping this from seeing more play is the mana cost. Not many decks in either eternal format can come up with WW consistently on turn two. Amusingly, this card shows up in some sideboards of Boros Burn decks as a card for the mirror match!

Rending Volley ($.46/$6)

I’ve mentioned this card before, but the foil being at only $6 when it’s so good against so many things, and being so cheap to cast…it’s a perfect storm. About the only thing it can’t do is get past an active Mother of Runes. It takes out combo pieces of Splinter Twin, it takes out Angels, Delvers, Snapcasters…it’s a long list of things that players need to kill.

Valorous Stance ($2/$6)

This is a $2 uncommon because it’s such a good answer to everything. This will be a more expensive foil as eternal decks pick it up as a way to save any creature from just about all removal. Toxic Deluge gets by this, but almost no other sweepers do. It’s true this isn’t a good answer to Swords to Plowshares in Legacy or Path to Exile in Modern, but that’s why it’ll be a sideboard card, not maindeck.

Destructive Revelry ($.26/$2)

Burn decks are starting to go Naya, adding green for Atarka’s Command in the main and this in the board. It’s an alternative to Smash to Smithereens that can also hit Leyline of Sanctity or Eidolon of the Great Revel in the mirror. It’s a versatile card that has a very good chance to go up farther. If the foils fall in price at rotation, picking some up at $1 or $1.50 is quite reasonable.

Searing Blood ($1/$6)

Speaking of great sideboard Red cards, this is outstanding. It’s not as good as Searing Blaze, but it’s not far off. The more creatures that get played, the better this gets. The mana cost is an issue, but as a very popular sideboard option, this has potential to grow to $8 or $10. If it dips to $5 at rotation, don’t be afraid to pick some up.

Leyline of Punishment ($1/$3.50)

This is one of the few ways that a Burn deck can deal with Kor Firewalker, since the prevention aspect of protection from red is not relevant anymore. This also stops lifegain, the other monster under the bed that scares Burn decks. At four mana it’s no good for the deck, though, so it’s in the opening seven or bust for this card.

Electrickery ($.21/$2.70)

It’s a singleton or pair in Legacy sideboards, dealing a damage to Snapcaster, Pyromancer, tokens, all sorts of things. It hasn’t seen as much Modern play lately, but if Mentor or Pyromancer blows up again, this might be the sideboard option of choice. It also answers unenchanted Bogles and a Mongoose without Threshold.

Nature’s Claim ($.30/$5 CNS/$9 WWK)

The reprint in Conspiracy didn’t hurt much, but it does give competition. This would be a $15 foil otherwise. It’s cheap and very versatile, a great answer to all sorts of problems. This card helps illustrate why Swords is an excellent answer, because when you’re ahead, a little life for the opponent is no big deal.

Kolaghan’s Command ($2/$6.50)

You may laugh, but it’s showing up in Grixis Delver decks. Imagine killing their Snapcaster while getting yours back, and being able to cast it again. Killing artifacts is useful, and discard at instant speed is rarely a bad option to have. It’s not terribly powerful but it is very flexible at a low cost. If it gets popular the foils will really go up.

Virulent Plague ($.27/$1.47)

There are a lot of options for reducing creature sizes. Curse of Death’s Hold, Night of Souls’ Betrayal, Illness in the Ranks, and so on, but this one might be the best for hosing a lot of Zombie-based strategies as well. It’s not going to cut it against Elves in Legacy, but being an answer to Splinter Twin might cause these foils to enjoy a decent spike.

Golgari Charm ($.57/$7)

Another answer for token swarms, but with more flexibility, this has been featured a couple of times in Legacy events. It’s also a very good Cube card, and it seeing more Modern play with Abzan on the rise. There’s a good chance that this breaks $10 in foil by the end of the year.

Izzet Charm ($.66/$3/$2.50 FNM foil)

Again, this is a very versatile spell that fits in a number of situations as long as you can cast it. Dig for your combo pieces. Kill an early threat. Counter a problem. Cubes love this card as well, but the presence of an FNM promo will probably help keep the price at $5 or less. There’s a chance this becomes popular, though, and it’s worth thinking about.

By: Cliff Daigle

I have a confession to make: I’m trading for Dragonlord Ojutai.

Not only am I trading for those, I’m giving up fetch lands and other long-term staples for them.

Why? I think that when Battle for Zendikar is out, demand is going to be even higher for Ojutai, Atarka, and likely Silumgar as well.

As for why I’m trading for in-print mythics that go for about $40, $19, and $16, well, hear me out.

I’ve said before that DTK cards have a unique situation, being two packs of a draft format when it’s a big set. I have written that Modern Masters 2015 is going to impact the supply of DTK opened. Magic Origins is going to eclipse it soon too.

We are going into a perfect storm of low supply and awesomely good cards.

To be clear, I don’t think every cards in Dragons has potential. I am especially leery of Dromoka’s Command, because I think that will get a ton worse without making someone sacrifice enchantment creatures like Courser of Kruphix. Hunt the Weak at instant speed for two mana is good, but it’s not $10 good.

What will be good in Standard when Theros is gone? Some form of blue-white control shell with three Ojutai. Perhaps Esper dragons stays on top with some Silumgar as well. Seems like a safe card to want, what with a new generation of Eldrazi on the horizon, begging to be stolen.

What’s impressed me is how good Atarka, Silumgar, and the why-the-heck-is-this-five-mana Ojutai are at, well, everything. Ojutai especially has been impressive, and it’s worth considering that even near $40, there’s room to grow…but with 20% of its growth having been in the past two weeks, I’m not sure how high it can or will go.

I think that players are always going to want to play a control deck with just a few creatures. I don’t know if losing Dissolve and all the extra Scry will decimate the deck or what.

I am convinced, though, that you should get your three copies now if you want to play with Ojutai.

What else from Dragons am I looking for?

Dragonlords Atarka and Silumgar

These are not four-of Dragons, mainly due to their cost. These are accessory Dragons, finishers, and their price reflects their less-used nature. They are better than Ojutai at affecting the board, but are more vulnerable to being killed immediately. I believe that removal which can deal with these is going to be at a premium. Valorous Stance does it, as do a couple of Charms, Hidden Dragonslayer, but with Hero’s Downfall leaving soon there’s not a lot of cheap ways to kill these Dragonlords.

Sidisi, Undead Vizier

I really like Sidisi as a spec target for the coming year. It’s a cheap cost, though no playable creature is as expendable as Satyr Wayfinder. The body you get, though, is tough to dance with even if the creature is vulnerable to Ultimate Price.

Thunderbreak Regent

As Guo pointed out earlier this week, the Game Day promo version is a hot commodity right now. It’s a 4/4 for 4, flying, that bolts the opponent killing it. This is a powerful and cheap creature, and any deck in Standard has to have a plan for seeing it on turn four or even three.

This IS a four-of, because it is disgusting in multiples. The price should remain stable while it’s in Standard, and has a good chance to go up in the coming months.

Foil Rending Volley

I said it a while ago: this is the Legacy and Modern sideboard card. The original is fifty cents and the foils are over $6. It’s so good at so many things, and it might even be a Standard sideboard answer for Ojutai. Get them while you can!

Deathmist Raptor

The way this combos with Den Protector is just filthy-rich in value. The endless looping of two Den Protector and the relative lack of graveyard hate make Raptor tough to deal with long-term. Both of these cards are growing in value as they fit together like peanut butter and jelly. Every Standard deck for the next 12 months has to have a plan for these cards, and playing the mirror can be the grindiest.

I think both of these cards will be even more expensive come the end of Magic Origins.

Monastery Mentor

While not in Dragons of Tarkir, this mythic has slid down to $16 as it’s been opened in one pack of drafts for the past six months or so. This is an easy pickup for gaining value, because it fits so nicely with Delver decks. I’m listening if you want to make the case of this vs. Young Pyromancer, but look at the Pyro’s foil price if you want to see its Legacy impact.

I like Mentor to break $25 before all is said and done.

By: Cliff Daigle

This is one of my favorite times of year as a casual financier, because people are starting to plan ahead for rotation in the fall. It’s really not that far off, though we do have a couple of sets to go before Theros block and M15 bid farewell to Standard.

Because people plan ahead more, there’s less of a problem with prices cratering at rotation than there used to be. It’s difficult to get full value on Theros block cards right now, and while I’m not buying anything yet, I’m planning for some things becoming available.

Theros

Thoughtseize – It’s down to $20 from its pre-reprint high of $80. Thoughtseize is one of the most powerful cards around, costing a card, one mana, and two life to rip a plan apart. As a rare in a best-selling fall set, the supply is very large, and the demand is also real in eternal formats.

I’d agree with you if you said that the price is going to go up over time. I wouldn’t be shocked if it was $30 or even $40 within a couple of years. The buy-in and the payoff time is just too high for my small-budget tastes, unfortunately. If it fell to the $12-$15 range, I would be aggressively picking them up. They are just too good.

Elspeth, Sun’s Champion – At $10 and declining ever since her Duel Deck came out, she’s a prime target. Planeswalkers are always going to have a certain appeal, and this one epitomizes what this card type is supposed to do. Good against small creatures, good against big ones, and an ultimate that makes it hard for you to lose.

I’m hoping she drops to the $7 range by September, but I’m happy trading for her at $10 and letting her slowly appreciate. I’m also not going to distinguish much between the Duel Deck foils and the regular Theros ones. Very few people are going to snub the foil and seek the regular.

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx – I traded for a half-dozen of these at $8, and even with the recent spike in devotion decks, it’s not even back to $7. This will take a hit as rotation nears and those decks lose a lot of value, so when it gets back to sub-$5 decks that’s when to pick them up for their long-term

The Temples (Triumph, Plenty, Deceit, Mystery) – These are currently at pretty low prices, and I have to say that if they make it to $1 or so, I’ll be snagging them left and right. They are not good enough for most cubes, but they are fantastic in Commander and are unlikely to be reprinted soon. I wouldn’t expect a big turnaround on these, but they are solid and safe pickups.

Born of the Gods

Kiora, the Crashing Wave – It’s always worth looking into cheap Planeswalkers. Kiora has the Duel Deck edition going on, and that’s going to keep a cap on her price for a while. Picking her up in trades for $5 or less will be easy enough and worth doing. Keep in mind that Born of the Gods and Journey into Nyx have some relatively short print runs, and Kiora is Cube-worthy if there’s support for the Simic color pairing.

The Temples (Enlightenment, Plenty, Malice) – The first two of these have higher prices right now because of their applications in Standard. Waiting until rotation to pick these up is the play. I really like these as inclusions for deliberately underpowered Cubes, too. Get them around $1-$2, though Temple of Enlightenment pops up occasionally in Modern lists and might not go below $4.

Journey into Nyx

Ajani, Mentor of Heroes – I said it when the card came out: This is a terribly awesome card in the superfriends decks and you’ll want to wait till rotation to pick up a few. The price is still high, $16, due to a smattering of play and the low run of Journey cards. I’m not sure how low it will go, as there were never all that many in circulation, but there are a lot of Standard decks running him as a one- or two-of. Dropping to $10 seems likely, but he’s seeing zero Modern play and most of the Commander decks that wanted one got one, so $5-$7 is in play too.

Eidolon of the Great Revel – This is knocking on $10 and has been climbing all year. This took a hit not long ago, knocking down to $6, but it’s come back strong. This card is the real deal in eternal formats, making waves in everyone’s budget deck of choice: Burn. This has an excellent chance to add $5 or more in value within the next year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if rotation didn’t touch this price. It’s worth saying that in this day and age, reprints are a funny thing, and this is something I’d have on the radar for a reprint before long. When they go up, go ahead and sell out.

The foils are just $25, and that’s a low price for something that is a four-of in Legacy maindecks. It seems like a pretty easy pickup now, and has great potential to go higher. We’re not talking Abrupt Decay-level spikes, but seeing this as a $50 foil within a year wouldn’t be shocking. It’s that good and that commonly played in Legacy and Modern.

Magic 2015

Garruk, Apex Predator – Currently at $15 and seeing just a touch of Standard play, rotation should push him to $8 or so, and that’s when you want to pick up a few. This is a fantastic Commander card and is pretty unlikely to get printed again.

Ajani Steadfast – Only when this gets under $5 will I want to get any copies in trades.

Obelisk of Urd – Hear me out. Tribal decks are absolutely a thing in casual play and this is a pretty good way to make any tribe terrifying. Convoke is an excellent way to lower its cost, and the card is at $3/$5 despite seeing the tiniest amount of Constructed play. I’m a big fan of picking up these foils right now, and being patient. I’m not saying these will double in six months, but I do think these will have a slow upward trend and be excellent trade fodder.

The Chain Veil – With a foil split of $1/$8, this card has serious casual appeal. The nonfoils are a pretty weak bet, but it won’t cost you much to pick some up and this is a unique effect in a mythic slot, a combination that can lead to some impressive price swings. I would agree with you if you bought a few now and simply waited until a five-color legend was printed that enables planeswalkers somehow, or, heaven forbid, there was a five-color planeswalker that had the ‘This can be your Commander’ text. That would spike this foil to at least $20 upon being revealed.

By: Cliff Daigle

We are about two months away from what is likely to be the biggest Grand Prix ever. Three sites worldwide, a format of Modern Masters 2015 sealed, and a cap of 10,000 players, of which 4,000 have already preregistered.

Las Vegas is a town that can handle such a crowd. That’s not the issue at all. It wasn’t an issue in 2013 when the Electric Daisy Carnival was in town the same weekend. There is no worry about finding a hotel, even with a holiday weekend involved.

My concern is that what you’re going to be spending to play in side events is not going to be a good return on your money.

Specifically, I’m talking about the lottery ticket that is opening booster packs.

There are instances where packs are worth it, but mostly, you’re gambling and losing…a philosophy that leads to casinos making billions off of the hopeful.

For me, and for you, opening packs is almost always a money loser.

I want to take five examples from Magic’s history and examine the value involved before making my case about Modern Masters 2015.

Case #1: Dragons of Tarkir

This is the new set, containing the new toys and the hot tech. Let’s say we can get a box for $100 even, including shipping and tax, a number that works out to roughly $2.75 per pack.

As of this writing, there are 26 rares and mythics that beat that price, and the set is only a few weeks into being sold.

Here’s the issue, though: there are 68 rares and mythics in the set, giving you a 38% chance of getting your money back per pack.

Let me put this a different way for you: You could buy a playset of Thunderbreak Regent, a playset of Dragonlord Atarka, and have enough for a set of Surrak, the Hunt-Caller…or you could buy a box that potentially has none of those.

Yes, you’ll get some foils, but the variance is not in your favor there either.

Case #2: Khans of Tarkir

How about Khans? There’s fetches, and Siege Rhinos, and lots more!

Well…no. Not really. As an in-print set, let’s say we get our box price down to $90. That’s $2.50 per pack, but as the set page shows, only 16 cards beat that price! At $2.62, one of them is the uncommon Monastery Swiftspear, so it doesn’t count. So 15 out of 68 means we have a 22% chance of making our money back with the rare.

Case #3: Modern Masters 2011

This set had the second-highest MSRP of any booster (remember, the Alara block all-foil packs were sold for $15!) at $7, and had a guaranteed foil in each pack. Currently, a box of 24 packs can be had for about $375, a price per pack of $15.60.

Of the 68 rares and mythics, a mere 13 beat that price. Elspeth, Knight-Errant is not pricey enough to earn your money back! Your success rate for nonfoils is 19%.

Case #4: Rise of the Eldrazi

Widely regarded as a blast to draft, this also has a host of expensive cards. The boxes go for about $600 plus shipping, giving us a pack price of roughly $17.

Only seven of the rares and mythics in the set beat that price, giving you a success rate of ten percent.

Case #5: Revised/3rd edition

Revised boosters for $50! As someone who bought lots of these for three bucks, half a Benjamin for one is stealing. It does not matter if you buy at the single rate, or the box rate of about $1800. Even if you got lucky on eBay and got a box for $1500, you’re still scratching a lottery ticket. There are exactly 10 cards worth more than $25 in the set, and no surprise, they are the duals.

Compounding the problem is that this edition has nearly twice as many rares as modern sets do: 121 of them, giving you a success rate of twelve percent.

One other note: don’t you dare buy loose packs, especially online. Box mapping is totally a thing and you will never ever snag one of those pricey mythics, and the foils will be looted out as well with use of a highly accurate scale.

For Revised and older, the packs don’t need to be mapped. The plastic of the booster is just translucent enough to allow someone a peek at the card located at the top of the stack if it has been slid up a little.

So what can we take away from all of this? Well, it’s clear that the best success rate is right now, with the newest set. Best, though, is still no guarantee, since it’s still 60/40 that you will lose money buying a booster pack and opening it.

This is going to be my philosophy with Modern Masters 2015, especially as the packs are $10 each. It’s possible that at first, there’s lots of $10 rares, and maybe by the time of GP Vegas, that will still be the case.

However, the more packs that get opened, the more the values will decrease as the supply goes up. This is a four-day event, and it seems reasonable to expect that vendors will be lowering their buy prices accordingly at the event as time goes on. So even if they are worth it at first, they won’t be for long.

I’m not saying you should never open packs, as you’re often paying for an experience. Some stores or events have $10 drafts, or Half Price Sealed type of things. Going to GP Vegas is going to be quite a time, and likely there will be some incredible stories. I encourage you to go and have that experience, but when it comes to calculating the value of the events (especially $75 side event sealed!) keep in mind that value is not always equal.