By: Cliff Daigle

This is one of my favorite times of year as a casual financier, because people are starting to plan ahead for rotation in the fall. It’s really not that far off, though we do have a couple of sets to go before Theros block and M15 bid farewell to Standard.

Because people plan ahead more, there’s less of a problem with prices cratering at rotation than there used to be. It’s difficult to get full value on Theros block cards right now, and while I’m not buying anything yet, I’m planning for some things becoming available.

Theros

Thoughtseize – It’s down to $20 from its pre-reprint high of $80. Thoughtseize is one of the most powerful cards around, costing a card, one mana, and two life to rip a plan apart. As a rare in a best-selling fall set, the supply is very large, and the demand is also real in eternal formats.

I’d agree with you if you said that the price is going to go up over time. I wouldn’t be shocked if it was $30 or even $40 within a couple of years. The buy-in and the payoff time is just too high for my small-budget tastes, unfortunately. If it fell to the $12-$15 range, I would be aggressively picking them up. They are just too good.

Elspeth, Sun’s Champion – At $10 and declining ever since her Duel Deck came out, she’s a prime target. Planeswalkers are always going to have a certain appeal, and this one epitomizes what this card type is supposed to do. Good against small creatures, good against big ones, and an ultimate that makes it hard for you to lose.

I’m hoping she drops to the $7 range by September, but I’m happy trading for her at $10 and letting her slowly appreciate. I’m also not going to distinguish much between the Duel Deck foils and the regular Theros ones. Very few people are going to snub the foil and seek the regular.

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx – I traded for a half-dozen of these at $8, and even with the recent spike in devotion decks, it’s not even back to $7. This will take a hit as rotation nears and those decks lose a lot of value, so when it gets back to sub-$5 decks that’s when to pick them up for their long-term

The Temples (Triumph, Plenty, Deceit, Mystery) – These are currently at pretty low prices, and I have to say that if they make it to $1 or so, I’ll be snagging them left and right. They are not good enough for most cubes, but they are fantastic in Commander and are unlikely to be reprinted soon. I wouldn’t expect a big turnaround on these, but they are solid and safe pickups.

Born of the Gods

Kiora, the Crashing Wave – It’s always worth looking into cheap Planeswalkers. Kiora has the Duel Deck edition going on, and that’s going to keep a cap on her price for a while. Picking her up in trades for $5 or less will be easy enough and worth doing. Keep in mind that Born of the Gods and Journey into Nyx have some relatively short print runs, and Kiora is Cube-worthy if there’s support for the Simic color pairing.

The Temples (Enlightenment, Plenty, Malice) – The first two of these have higher prices right now because of their applications in Standard. Waiting until rotation to pick these up is the play. I really like these as inclusions for deliberately underpowered Cubes, too. Get them around $1-$2, though Temple of Enlightenment pops up occasionally in Modern lists and might not go below $4.

Journey into Nyx

Ajani, Mentor of Heroes – I said it when the card came out: This is a terribly awesome card in the superfriends decks and you’ll want to wait till rotation to pick up a few. The price is still high, $16, due to a smattering of play and the low run of Journey cards. I’m not sure how low it will go, as there were never all that many in circulation, but there are a lot of Standard decks running him as a one- or two-of. Dropping to $10 seems likely, but he’s seeing zero Modern play and most of the Commander decks that wanted one got one, so $5-$7 is in play too.

Eidolon of the Great Revel – This is knocking on $10 and has been climbing all year. This took a hit not long ago, knocking down to $6, but it’s come back strong. This card is the real deal in eternal formats, making waves in everyone’s budget deck of choice: Burn. This has an excellent chance to add $5 or more in value within the next year, and I wouldn’t be surprised if rotation didn’t touch this price. It’s worth saying that in this day and age, reprints are a funny thing, and this is something I’d have on the radar for a reprint before long. When they go up, go ahead and sell out.

The foils are just $25, and that’s a low price for something that is a four-of in Legacy maindecks. It seems like a pretty easy pickup now, and has great potential to go higher. We’re not talking Abrupt Decay-level spikes, but seeing this as a $50 foil within a year wouldn’t be shocking. It’s that good and that commonly played in Legacy and Modern.

Magic 2015

Garruk, Apex Predator – Currently at $15 and seeing just a touch of Standard play, rotation should push him to $8 or so, and that’s when you want to pick up a few. This is a fantastic Commander card and is pretty unlikely to get printed again.

Ajani Steadfast – Only when this gets under $5 will I want to get any copies in trades.

Obelisk of Urd – Hear me out. Tribal decks are absolutely a thing in casual play and this is a pretty good way to make any tribe terrifying. Convoke is an excellent way to lower its cost, and the card is at $3/$5 despite seeing the tiniest amount of Constructed play. I’m a big fan of picking up these foils right now, and being patient. I’m not saying these will double in six months, but I do think these will have a slow upward trend and be excellent trade fodder.

The Chain Veil – With a foil split of $1/$8, this card has serious casual appeal. The nonfoils are a pretty weak bet, but it won’t cost you much to pick some up and this is a unique effect in a mythic slot, a combination that can lead to some impressive price swings. I would agree with you if you bought a few now and simply waited until a five-color legend was printed that enables planeswalkers somehow, or, heaven forbid, there was a five-color planeswalker that had the ‘This can be your Commander’ text. That would spike this foil to at least $20 upon being revealed.

By: Cliff Daigle

We are about two months away from what is likely to be the biggest Grand Prix ever. Three sites worldwide, a format of Modern Masters 2015 sealed, and a cap of 10,000 players, of which 4,000 have already preregistered.

Las Vegas is a town that can handle such a crowd. That’s not the issue at all. It wasn’t an issue in 2013 when the Electric Daisy Carnival was in town the same weekend. There is no worry about finding a hotel, even with a holiday weekend involved.

My concern is that what you’re going to be spending to play in side events is not going to be a good return on your money.

Specifically, I’m talking about the lottery ticket that is opening booster packs.

There are instances where packs are worth it, but mostly, you’re gambling and losing…a philosophy that leads to casinos making billions off of the hopeful.

For me, and for you, opening packs is almost always a money loser.

I want to take five examples from Magic’s history and examine the value involved before making my case about Modern Masters 2015.

Case #1: Dragons of Tarkir

This is the new set, containing the new toys and the hot tech. Let’s say we can get a box for $100 even, including shipping and tax, a number that works out to roughly $2.75 per pack.

As of this writing, there are 26 rares and mythics that beat that price, and the set is only a few weeks into being sold.

Here’s the issue, though: there are 68 rares and mythics in the set, giving you a 38% chance of getting your money back per pack.

Let me put this a different way for you: You could buy a playset of Thunderbreak Regent, a playset of Dragonlord Atarka, and have enough for a set of Surrak, the Hunt-Caller…or you could buy a box that potentially has none of those.

Yes, you’ll get some foils, but the variance is not in your favor there either.

Case #2: Khans of Tarkir

How about Khans? There’s fetches, and Siege Rhinos, and lots more!

Well…no. Not really. As an in-print set, let’s say we get our box price down to $90. That’s $2.50 per pack, but as the set page shows, only 16 cards beat that price! At $2.62, one of them is the uncommon Monastery Swiftspear, so it doesn’t count. So 15 out of 68 means we have a 22% chance of making our money back with the rare.

Case #3: Modern Masters 2011

This set had the second-highest MSRP of any booster (remember, the Alara block all-foil packs were sold for $15!) at $7, and had a guaranteed foil in each pack. Currently, a box of 24 packs can be had for about $375, a price per pack of $15.60.

Of the 68 rares and mythics, a mere 13 beat that price. Elspeth, Knight-Errant is not pricey enough to earn your money back! Your success rate for nonfoils is 19%.

Case #4: Rise of the Eldrazi

Widely regarded as a blast to draft, this also has a host of expensive cards. The boxes go for about $600 plus shipping, giving us a pack price of roughly $17.

Only seven of the rares and mythics in the set beat that price, giving you a success rate of ten percent.

Case #5: Revised/3rd edition

Revised boosters for $50! As someone who bought lots of these for three bucks, half a Benjamin for one is stealing. It does not matter if you buy at the single rate, or the box rate of about $1800. Even if you got lucky on eBay and got a box for $1500, you’re still scratching a lottery ticket. There are exactly 10 cards worth more than $25 in the set, and no surprise, they are the duals.

Compounding the problem is that this edition has nearly twice as many rares as modern sets do: 121 of them, giving you a success rate of twelve percent.

One other note: don’t you dare buy loose packs, especially online. Box mapping is totally a thing and you will never ever snag one of those pricey mythics, and the foils will be looted out as well with use of a highly accurate scale.

For Revised and older, the packs don’t need to be mapped. The plastic of the booster is just translucent enough to allow someone a peek at the card located at the top of the stack if it has been slid up a little.

So what can we take away from all of this? Well, it’s clear that the best success rate is right now, with the newest set. Best, though, is still no guarantee, since it’s still 60/40 that you will lose money buying a booster pack and opening it.

This is going to be my philosophy with Modern Masters 2015, especially as the packs are $10 each. It’s possible that at first, there’s lots of $10 rares, and maybe by the time of GP Vegas, that will still be the case.

However, the more packs that get opened, the more the values will decrease as the supply goes up. This is a four-day event, and it seems reasonable to expect that vendors will be lowering their buy prices accordingly at the event as time goes on. So even if they are worth it at first, they won’t be for long.

I’m not saying you should never open packs, as you’re often paying for an experience. Some stores or events have $10 drafts, or Half Price Sealed type of things. Going to GP Vegas is going to be quite a time, and likely there will be some incredible stories. I encourage you to go and have that experience, but when it comes to calculating the value of the events (especially $75 side event sealed!) keep in mind that value is not always equal.

---

 

By: Cliff Daigle

So I’ve come to a decision: I’m selling my Kaalia of the Vast deck.

If you’re interested, here’s the decklist. I’m not trying to sell it to you. I’m not trying to stump for the prices using this bully pulpit, but the list of what is foil is instructive. I certainly did not spend or trade about $2,000 to acquire this deck, but the prices have all steadily increased from what I got them for.

As I’ve admitted before, I’m a collector. I really enjoyed having these unique and valuable cards in my deck, and playing a foil French Angel of Despair started some interesting conversations in games. Whenever I had a chance to pick up something outside the usual version, I went for it, and did so for years. As such, the value increased, and with some of my foils, I picked them up at their printing, when they were significantly cheaper.

I started this deck in 2011, when the Heavenly Inferno deck came out and when Commander really hit the mainstream of Magic awareness.

Today I want to go over some of the cards and the specifics on how/why they went up in value so much in the past couple of years, and see what trends jump out.

Akroma, Angel of Fury (foil)

This ‘alternate’ version of Akroma has not seen the same level of reanimation or love that the original has, but she remains a ridiculously powerful card. It’s only got one foil despite being in Heavenly Inferno, and she is the only mono-red Angel. There was once a combo involving turn 2 Radha, Heir to Keld and unmorphing Akroma on turn 4’s attack, but this increase in price is mainly due to age and availability.

 

Avacyn, Angel of Hope (foil)

This is the heavy hitter of any Angel deck. I have written before about how I expect her to headline FTV: Angels this summer, and her nonfoil price will take a hit but rebound nicely. Avacyn benefits from being incredibly powerful, in a popular tribe, and a mythic in a set that was widely regarded as unfun (and therefore opened less).

 

Kokusho, the Evening Star (CHK foil)

Interestingly, the Kamigawa foil is about $13 more than the Modern Masters foil, even for being the same card. The only differences are a line of flavor text and a set symbol. This card was initially deemed too good for Commander, and was banned for quite some time. Sheldon Menery used to give hints in his columns about cards they were ‘trying out’ and I got three Kokusho before the unbanning and subsequent price spike. Sadly, there’s no longer such indicators.

 

Gisela, Blade of Goldnight (foil)

She’s not as in-demand as Avacyn is, but many of the same price pressures apply: small sales, mythic, ridiculously powerful. Being two colors is the worst thing about her.

 

Aurelia, the Warleader (foil)

This is one of the most recent foils and at a multiplier of six from non-foil to foil, it’s an indicator of the casual appeal. Gatecrash sold very well, so that’s helping keep the price low. It’s one of the easier cards to cast, at only six mana, and that has probably put her into a few Cubes as well. Her synergy with Kaalia is undeniable, should you always play Aurelia a turn or two after Kaalia.

 

Iona, Shield of Emeria (foil)

First of all, her foil is sought after for Legacy Reanimator builds. This is one of the most powerful things to cheat into play, as it simply denies your opponent the ability to play spells. They aren’t countered, they aren’t exiled, they simply cannot happen. This is also one of the best Bribery targets in Commander. Zendikar is often regarded as a set that brought Magic to a new level of growth, but this is still in a lot smaller quantity than a mythic in Theros or Khans.

 

Baneslayer Angel (foil)

Being in two straight Core Sets should have her price lower than it is, but the power of this card is rather high. Five mana, flying, 5/5, lifelink, and a little protection was good enough to define Standard for quite a while.

 

Linvala, Keeper of Silence (foil)

Rise of the Eldrazi was ridiculously fun to play and a surprisingly deep set. This was opened at a very healthy clip for its season, and a little more afterwards. I remember my LGS choosing Rise drafts over M11 more than once. Linvala’s price has been creeping upward steadily for a while, a combination of her power in Casual formats and as an answer to many problems in Modern.

 

Swiftfoot Boots (foil)

The regulars are a dollar or less, from M12 and two Commander printings. The foils are $6, and it would not be a surprise to see then break $10 within a year, being the only chance you have to get them in foil. A foil-set reprint (Conspiracy 2 seems like a good spot for this) will impact that price somewhat, and should not be discounted.

 

Command Tower (foil)

Now, there’s two foil versions out there: the Judge foil, and the Commander’s Arsenal version. Both are a couple of years old, and aren’t terribly common, but the judge foil is still not hard to find.

 

Thespian’s Stage (foil)

I’ve written about this multiple times and this is the short version: Get the foils you need now. A reprint on this land is very likely, as it’s one of the best things you can be doing in Commander, but the foils are much more likely to hold their price for the long term.

 

  

Sacred Foundry, Godless Shrine, Blood Crypt (all foil)

Foil shocks are as safe as can be for the next five years or so. We had some pricey ones before Return to Ravnica block, and then the newer shocks have crept up to the $50 range, depending on the colors. The older shocklands provide a price ceiling, and while I don’t expect huge growth out of RTR/GTC foil shocks, I do see them at least holding steady. If I were trading Standard cards to get Modern ones, foil shocks would be my ideal targets.

So what lessons are there to be learned?

First of all, if you need to get foils that are not in print, go ahead and get them now. Waiting won’t make them cheaper. At best, they will be the same price, at worst, they will be much, much more. So take it from a collector, a foil hound, a magpie: Get them now and revel in it.

Secondly, the print run matters, but not as much as the Eternal play. Iona and Linvala’s foil prices reflect this. There are more foils of Iona out there, but she doesn’t see much play outside of being a one-of in Reanimator. If it’s a short print run, that will make a difference as well, and could be a factor sooner rather than later.

Finally, if you can stand to wait until foils are at their bottom, do it. This is not necessarily the time when they rotate out of Standard, but instead when supply is at their greatest.

For an example, let’s look at Sarkhan Unbroken. Right now, his foil is at a comfortable $50, and that’s nearly half what it was when the set arrived. In about six weeks, Modern Masters lands, and this summer, we’ll have Magic Origins. Origins’ arrival is when I’m hoping that Sarkhan’s foil will be $30-$40 or so, and that is a price I’m comfortable at. The power level in Commander and other casual formats just won’t let the foil go lower, and it’s likely to appreciate well.

I hope you’re able to look at foil appreciations and figure out what else we should be watching (Eidolon of the Great Revel at $30 is a fair price now, but it’ll be $45 by summer 2016) and picking up for our collections.

By: Cliff Daigle

Today, with Dragons of Tarkir being the new and amazing set, and the beginning of a shaken-up Standard and Modern, I want to take a look back at my wishlist for Khans of Tarkir.

It’s been about six months since the set came out, and now that we aren’t opening Khans packs in drafts and Sealed, the prices are at their floor. How much could I have saved on the cards I wanted if I were willing to wait? How much is my patience worth?

I have gotten a few of these cards already, but I want to demonstrate the value of patience. These are all Commander cards for me, cards I’ll be adding to decks (or already added) to make them a little more awesome.

Foil Deflecting Palm
Foil Empty the Pits
Foil Hooded Hydra
Foil Kheru Bloodsucker
Foil Nomad Outpost
Foil See the Unwritten
Foil Sorin, Solemn Visitor

You don’t need me to tell you what these do or how good they are, since they have been out for six months now. You’ve likely traded or opened some of these already.

Here were the prices on Sept. 23, the Tuesday after the Prerelease, when prices are generally at their highest:

Foil Deflecting Palm $8
Foil Empty the Pits $17
Foil Hooded Hydra $14
Foil Kheru Bloodsucker $0.50
Foil Nomad Outpost $4
Foil See the Unwritten $17
Foil Sorin, Solemn Visitor $48
Total: $108.50

It’s a list with four mythics, two uncommons, and two rares, all in foil, because I am totally a collector. If I could find them in foreign foil, all the better. I feel this is a good sample from any given set, with a range of things I want to play right away.

I’ve been upgrading EDH decks for years and I’ve learned to wait, though. The longer I can stand to wait, the cheaper the cards will be in almost all cases. The cheapest path is to wait until Standard rotation, but even at the accelerated 18-month timeline, that’s just not good for me.

Let’s see what I saved (or would have saved) if I waited until today to get these cards:

Foil Deflecting Palm: $3.23
Foil Empty the Pits: $5.55
Foil Hooded Hydra: $6.38
Foil Kheru Bloodsucker: $0.43
Foil Nomad Outpost: $3.45
Foil See the Unwritten: $9.56
Foil Sorin, Solemn Visitor: $27.52
Total: $56.12

Even with a recent bump to See the Unwritten, even with the Manifest synergies of Hooded Hydra, even with Sorin seeing some play in assorted Abzan lists, the price has gone down by nearly half. Some of the cards went down by lots more than half, and the only ones to have even stayed the same are the two uncommons!

What does this mean for you?

It means that when you seek value, patience is key. There is sometimes money to be made in buying things up right away. I am not good enough at predicting Standard and Modern to take that approach, but I can tell you that cards like See the Unwritten will always be amazing in Commander. (for spice, add Quicken, and add the tears of your opponents to taste.) 

It means that if the 50% figure holds (and the actual figure does vary, mainly due to spikes in prices) then I can determine how much of a premium I’m paying to have this card right now. It’s possible I could have beaten that $108 figure with judicious use of eBay or TCG sellers, too. I shouldn’t presume that I’d be paying full retail.

In this case, is it worth $50 or so to me to have the cards at the beginning of the format? Would I have been more content to get a nonfoil Sorin, and save $25 or so? That’s half of the value I gained by waiting six months, but foils are a much better bet over time.

As for what I did get: I picked up the Outpost and the Bloodsucker immediately, and I opened nonfoils of most of these. I’m still trying to trade for the foil versions. I haven’t bought any of these directly…yet.

I’m going to bring up another option here: PucaTrade goes nuts when a new set becomes available. There’s a lot of points and cards flying around, and the key to success on Puca is selling into hype, which is especially true this first week. Rack up the points while you can!

---