Category Archives: Casual Fridays

Casual Fridays

PROTRADER: Invocation Predictions, part 2

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Last week, I went over my thoughts on the eventual prices of the new Invocations, and while we are missing the full complement of the Gods, the reprints are known and starting to be presold.

With a week that’s gone by, the preorder market is a little more stable. I’m going to use TCG’s prices, as that’s reflecting what people are currently paying for these cards.

Let’s take a look!

 

Daze – $2 nonfoil, $120 pack foil, $15 Eternal Masters foil, preorder $75: The good news for this card is that when people play this, they want the full playset. No messing around with three or less, and that’s part of why this is so high in price. The bad news is that it’s not good in Commander, and not every Cube wants a copy.

Prediction: My first blush is to say that this drops as low as $50, but it could go lower. Having an old border version to chase puts a definite ceiling on the card, but the price on the EMA foil is indicative that the demand isn’t all there.

 

Diabolic Intent – $19/$65/Preorder $40 – I’ll be honest, it’s tough to find a place where this sees a lot of play. It is powerful, and good in Commander, but that format has a whole lot of tutoring options available. This price is more reflective of the very low supply than the demand profile.

Prediction: I think this is perfect, actually. It’s right between the regular and the foil, the supply stays low, but there just aren’t a lot of people clamoring to have this. It might fall to $35, if it does fall.

 

Divert – $1.50/$20/Preorder $30: I didn’t even know this was a card, to be honest. Sure, it’s a single mana, but this is as conditional as can be. One spell with one target and they don’t have two mana available? It’s seeing a tiny amount of play in Legacy sideboards, but the drawbacks are real.

Prediction: I think this drops even farther, and will struggle to be more expensive than the pack foil. There just aren’t enough people who need this in a deck, and even then, they will only need one or two copies.

 

Entomb – $12-$20 nonfoil/$15-$52 foil/Preorder $50: Now this is a card. Thematically, it fits the block and the setting very well, and it’s played a lot. Reanimator is a strategy that’s tried and true in Legacy, Commander, and Cube, and all of those decks want this card. Ideally as a four-of, but that’s the nature of Commander. The tricky part, though, is that this has been printed in Eternal Masters and a Judge Foil and the Premium Deck Series. There’s a lot of copies out there already.

Prediction: I think this will fall, but not by too much. $35 is the point at which I’d want to be moving in, but I’m not certain about the demand it’ll face.

 

Force of Will – $80/$330/$465/Preorder $300:  Yep, we are now entering our third additional printing of this card. Original, judge foil, gorgeous Eternal Masters, and now this promo version. The good news is that this is one of the most prevalent cards in Legacy, some might say the defining card. The bad news is that this might have the farthest to fall.

Prediction: I think this will be the case study on how desirable the new frames are. The players who don’t want this one will sell out immediately, and others will snap it up. What I don’t see is people opening this and saying, “Oh sweet! I need three more to get started in Legacy!” I expect this card to lose $50 or more in value, bottoming out in the $250 range.

 

Loyal Retainers – $52 nonfoil/$22 foil/Preorder $33: This card has a tiny supply but not that many decks want to play it. Aluren likes it, and there are strategies that pop up using it, but the demand just isn’t very high.

Prediction: I think this stays in the $30 range for quite a while.

 

Maelstrom Pulse – $18/$34/Preorder: $45: This is a card that’s been a mythic and a reprint and a promo, but it’s lcimbed back into the nearly-$20 range because it’s seeing good amounts of play in Modern, and is a worthy card in almost any casual format. Universal answers are always good, but ones that have the potential to clean up a bunch of tokens or both Tarmogoyfs as going to stay in demand.

Prediction: It sees enough play and the supply is small enough that this price doesn’t drop far, if at all.

 

Mind Twist – $2 up to $400+ for Alpha versions/no foil printings/Preorder: $60: A haymaker of a card, and one that’s still banned in Legacy. With fast mana, this is a big swing of card advantage, though it can’t solve problems in play. This hasn’t been printed since 4th edition, and so this is the only foil version that can be found.

Prediction: I think being the only foil version bodes well for the card, but the severe lack of formats to play it in does not. If you’re into speculating, this might be a tasty target, as an unbanning in Legacy would cause a spike to double its current price, or maybe more. As it stands, though, I think this drops a little to the $50 range.

 

Pact of Negation – $37/$53/Preorder: $80: This card has a foil multiplier of less than two, indicating that people want it, and having the foil version isn’t important. Casual demand is not driving the foil price up in relation to the nonfoil, and that’s extremely relevant here. Pact sees a lot of Modern play, generally as a way to protect your combo on the turn you’re going to win.

Prediction: Given the prices already in play, this should fall by at least $20, and I wouldn’t be shocked to have it land in the $45 range.

 

Spell Pierce – $1/$6-$30/Preorder: $60: Before being in Modern Masters 2017, this was one of the more impressive foil multipliers out there. Spell Pierce sees a fair amount of Modern and Legacy play, and isn’t terrible in Cube, though it’s garbage in Commander. Having the Invocation be twice the Zendikar foil is far too high though.

Prediction: A price correction is already underway, frankly. The listed Market Price is $70, but copies are being listed for $55. I would expect this to end up in the $40 range.

 

Stifle – $5/$18-$54/Preorder: $45: There’s a lot of things this card can do, some of them very powerful, but still quite niche. Some Legacy decks use this offensively, mainly targeting fetchland activations, but it’s not Modern legal and I’d have a hard time running this in Commander.

Prediction: Since players have a choice between an old border foil, a Judge foil, and the Conspiracy foil, they are going to have to want this version above all else. It’s possible, but unlikely, and so I think this will drop just a bit, down to $35-$40.

 

Vindicate – $5-$7/$18-$54/Preorder: $45 – The demand for this is high in Commander decks that can run this, and occasionally a Legacy deck will have it…but that’s all. This has been a Judge foil twice, and again, it has an old border foil that’s generally preferable to this new blocky frame.

Prediction: The market is already trending down. Market price is listed as $48, but copies are available at $37 shipped and no one is biting. $30 is where I expect this to stop sliding.

 

Worship – $8/$35/Preorder: $40 – After its original printing, it’s had three core set printings to boost supply, which is good because this sees just enough play in Modern to be worth a few bucks. The foil multipliers are appropriate, even a little high, but I wouldn’t trust this to keep myself alive in Commander for long.

Prediction: It’s under the 7th edition foil and just above the others. I think this is a stable place to be.

 

Wrath of God – $5 for Revised up to $750 for Alpha/$8 FTV up to $120 for 7th Edition foil/Preorder: $55: There are now 23 different versions of this out there, counting the foils. Full-art, FTV, original Beta borders, your choice of artwork. Having so many in circulation means that the demand for this card is going to be very telling, in terms of how many people want the Invocation specifically.

Prediction: The market price is correcting already, and while some sales happened at $55, the undercutting is starting. Copies are available at $45 shipped, and I think $30 is going to be the price by the time Hour of Devastation comes out.

Casual Fridays, ProTrader

Invocation Predictions (Part 1)

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The Masterpieces are here! In Amonkhet, they are known as Invocations this time around. I have some beef with some specific choices for this special set, but I see what their goal was. Wizards wanted to give us a 3-D effect and something that was visually very different, and they got that. I don’t like the unreadable card name, and I think there’s a lot of spell bubbles, but I’m not an art critic. I’m a casual player and someone addicted to foils, but this design doesn’t have to be for me.

Even if you don’t like the look of these cards, these are valuable. Even the least of these will be worth about the same as the most expensive mythic, barring the very unforeseen.

This week, I want to look at these current prices and see where they will probably end up, price-wise. The preorder price is an amalgamation, between some sites, and eBay sales aren’t up yet.

 

Aggravated Assault – Original: $12, Set foil: $28, Preorder: $30 – If you like this you’re going to pay a little bit more, and that makes sense. I don’t think the demand is very high for this card, though. It’s rare that you activate this more than once, even if you’re a Yidris, Maelstrom Wielder player. This card doubled when his deck was released and hasn’t been printed since Onslaught.

Prediction: I think $30 is a perfect price here. It’s on par with the set foil, which lots of people find appealing.

Attrition – $9, $40, Preorder $35 – I want to like this. I really do. Attrition works so well with a number of casual strategies (Meren, tokens, Karador) and this has potential. It’s popular enough that I think the price is going to creep upward but not a lot.

Prediction: At the end, it’ll be about $45.

 

Austere Command – $12, $35, Preorder $50 – Lorwyn and original Commander are the only printings, and I think this price reflects the appropriate demand and the semi-small supply. It’s not played outside Commander and Cube, but it’s nicely flexible and worth playing in most casual decks.

Prediction: This is going to fall to about the same price as the set foil. It’s not pretty enough to be worth upgrading to if you already have a foil.

 

Aven Mindcensor – $8, $53, Preorder $45 – We’ve had it spoiled that this is going to be a rare in Amonkhet, so that $8 isn’t going to last. It’s not widely played in Modern or Legacy, though it does pop up in sideboards. It needs to be said that the frame is going to play a big part, as those who like the Future Sight frame REALLY LOVE that frame and I don’t see the pack foil budging in price.

Prediction: The Invocation version will fall by a few bucks, but not terribly far.

 

Chain Lightning – $11, $3/$6 Eternal Masters, $6 for PDS foil, Preorder: $40 – This seems super duper and incredibly way off. This is played in one deck, Legacy Burn, and while it’s a four-of it’s not usually the market for these promo versions.

Prediction: This falls like a rock. It should drop down to the $20 range, which would be 3x the price of foils available. Ouch.

 

Consecrated Sphinx – $20, $60, Preorder: $50 – The card is bonkers insane in any format where it survives being cast and not being killed before the next draw step. There’s precious few cards that will get you attacked to death faster, and the single printing is why the price is so high.

Prediction: Against all my instincts, I think this is going to go up. It’s the only Sphinx so far in the Invocation set, and I think there will be enough casual players who want this to let it creep up by $10-$15 or so.

 

Containment Priest – $15, Preorder: $75 – This sees a small amount of play in Legacy and Vintage, and with no other choices for making unique versions of the card, I’m expecting big things out of this foil. That said, this is a 5x multiplier, and I think that’s just too high.

Prediction: This ends up at $50-$60, there’s just not enough demand, even though its only printing was a Commander precon three years ago.

 

Counterbalance – $20, $115, Preorder: $65 – This is in demand because of the power it offers in formats where Sensei’s Divining Top is legal. I rarely see this in Commander, and its power in Cube is debatable. A foil multiplier of 6 is fascinating, though, and speaks to the income and the four-of nature of this card.

Prediction: I think this has room to fall. The pack foil is far superior in appearance, but those who want this will be few and far between. I expect this to land at $40-$50.

 

Counterspell – $1-$175 for nonfoils, $6-$32 for foils, Preorder: $60 – The Invocation version is the 25th entry we will have for this card, including the foil versions. You have a wide variety of art to choose from, and can go all the way back to being an Alpha rare. You can choose an FNM promo, or a Judge Foil, or a selection of special printings.

Prediction: I think this falls to $40 or under. Yes, Commanders and Cubes play this, but there’s rarer and older versions to chase.

 

Cryptic Command – $26-$30, $35-$110 foil, Preorder: $90 – The Lorwyn foil is way up there as the original foil, but the Modern Masters foils are intriguingly cheap. This is a great and powerful and often-played card, so I think it’ll have a premium.

Prediction: This version of the card will be bought in playsets, and supply will never have a chance to get too big. This will settle in the $75 range, bridging the gaps nicely.

 

Dark Ritual – $0.50-$80, $4-$53 foil, Preorder: $50 – I shouldn’t need to tell you that this is either a four-of or not played at all. You’re either desperate for the mana or you pay full price. I do love versions where this has the card type ‘Mana Source’ though.

Prediction: Those who want this will also be buying the full playset, but there are so few of those decks. The demand is low, as evidenced by the complete disregard by the market for the FTV version, so I think this will fall to about $30-$35.
Next week I’ll come back with the rest. Stay tuned!

Casual Fridays

Checking the Sideboards

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Today I want to look at some sideboard cards in Modern and Legacy, things which aren’t seeing a lot of play yet but if they are good enough to make the 75, it’s worth thinking about what might pop given a little time or a minor metagame shift.

Deck: Death’s Shadow

Collective Brutality – $10/$18 foil – This is a very intriguing card, since it’s a small set rare with a foil multiplier that’s under two. It’s not seeing play in Standard currently, so this price is mostly from the other formats. This is seeing play in a range of decks, but not in large numbers. Mostly, it’s a one-or-two-of, as befits such a flexible card.

Forecast: The number of decks this is played in, and none of those being Standard, means that this is unlikely to get lower when it rotates this fall. If it goes even to $8, I would be in on this, as being $15 or more in a year seems very likely.

Maelstrom Pulse – $16/$32 – While not a big card in Death’s Shadow decks, it’s also present in Jund and this is a fantastic card in Commander. It was a mythic a long time ago, in a third set, it was a rare in the first, underprinted Modern Masters, and then it was a Grand Prix promo. It’s around, but there’s also demand.

Forecast: The buy-in is high here, but the potential is big. Only a couple of decks play this, but casual demand has soaked up a lot of the available copies. It’ll break $20 if not reprinted soon.

Deck: Burn

Atarka’s Command – $9/$14 – This requires the three-color Burn list, and some players are content to be only Boros, because of access to Kor Firewalker. If you’re adding green, though, this is flexible and incredibly powerful.

Forecast: One of the Dragonlords is going to get a Duel Deck or a Commander appearance or something, and that’s the only thing I’m worried about. This is already on an upward trajectory, and it’s easy to see this gaining 50% or more in the next few months. If Burn wins a tournament, or performs well on camera, that could be a lot sooner.

Deflecting Palm – $0.75/$3.50 – This is from Khans of Tarkir, so there’s a lot more of it than there is for Atarka’s Command, but my goodness, this is exactly what I want in a sideboard card. It’s cheap, and incredibly swingy. When you draw this against a Death’s Shadow deck, you feel like you can’t lose. They are going to go for the win and you’re going to prevent your own loss and beat them with one play. It’s not widely played, though.

Forecast: Very slow growth. It’s not in enough decks, frankly. I don’t see this gaining a lot of value anytime soon, barring the unforeseen.

Deck: Affinity

Ghirapur Aether Grid – $1/$13 – The foil multiplier here is truly impressive, as is the uncommon being at $1. There were two copies in the intro pack too! This is casual gold, and sees light play in Lantern Control as well.

Forecast: I’m in on the foils, to be frank. If this gets reprinted in a Commander product the nonfoils will take a hit, but they just printed an artifact Commander deck and didn’t include this. I think it’s safe for the next year, so picking up nonfoils is fine too.

Spire of Industry – $5/$13 – This is a maindeck card, but one worth attention as supply dries up and we move into Amonkhet. It sees a lot of play in Standard, but the casual appeal and the Modern usage has me eyeing this.

Forecast: I think this is a $10 card around Christmas of this year, and the foils are going to rise slowly but surely over time.

Deck: Abzan

Thrun, the Last Troll – $12/$34 – He’s dodged reprinting over and over again, and I don’t think he will end up in a Commander set. The supply from a middle-set mythic five years ago was never big, and without a supplementary printing, he’s due for a pop.

Forecast: This seems pretty safe to me. His value is a bit too high for easy reprints, and his next set would be Modern Masters 2019. I don’t know when he will spike, but spike he will. Sometime in the next 18 months, this will go up to at least $30.

Kitchen Finks – $12/$20-$30, depending on the foil version – This card is played a lot, as shown by its price. It’s resilient, catches you up, and can be played in white or green. Only two printings, plus the FNM promo.

Forecast: As an uncommon, it can be added to products easier. Its price has been quite low in the past, but it is also part of infinite life combos in Modern. I do not think the time is right to move in on this yet. I think it’s due for a reprint, and when that happens, I will want to be ready to pick them up. The exposure is too high here.

Casual Fridays

Hitting Bottom

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Modern Masters drops today! It’s so awesome! Value all over the place, depending on the amount opened. We will be keeping an eye on the prices, but drops of 30-50% should be expected. A lot of cards have fallen that far already, and as time passes we will have to keep an eye on the value of MM3 cards.

Today, though, I want to focus on Kaladesh and Aether Revolt cards that are good targets for increasing in value later on. Some stores are going to keep opening those in drafts and events, but all the hype is on Modern Masters, and we are about a month away from Amonkhet prerelease events.

Prices for the Kaladesh block are at their lowest right now. Supply has been maximized, and those who need cards have gotten them. We are now at the point where if a card gets popular in Standard, it’ll spike, because they aren’t getting opened anymore.

This is also when I want to get cards that I think are good long-term investments, due to casual appeal or playability in Eternal formats.

Lifecrafter’s Bestiary – $1.20/$4 foil – This is one of the easiest picks around. Have you played with this card? It’s amazing in any format where you can resolve it without dying, and you play creatures. Commander loves this card, and a scry 1 might help this be good enough in Standard. Creature decks run out of gas, and drawing a card per creature cast is rather phenomenal. I’m advocating this due to the casual appeal, but I am not ruling out that this spikes anytime before the big set of Fall 2018. My low end of this is $3-$4 in two years, but Standard could push that issue sooner.

Foils are awfully appealing at a mere $4. They started out at $10 on release, and it’s a card that you have to come up with a good reason against if you’re a green Commander player. I want all of these at $4. Just all of them. They are going to be leeched out of the market as time passes, so be ready when they slowly climb back to $10 or more.

Whir of Invention – $1/$5 – This is a card looking to be broken. Brewers are trying hard with this and Inspiring Statuary, but I feel the Whir will get broken first. It’s also a card you can put into a deck that’s almost all artifacts, where the Statuary needs both lots of artifacts AND big spells that aren’t artifacts. Whir is also much better in casual formats, being something that I can easily see every Commander deck playing to go find that Darksteel Forge or whatever you need. I love getting in on a dollar card with upside we haven’t found yet. It’s quite possible that either of the blocks coming have artifacts worth tutoring for. I think this will find a home in some decks in Modern at some point, and doubling will be conservative.

The foils are also super appealing. It’s very easy to add this card to a deck with a few choice artifacts in Commander, so seeing the foil go up to $10-$15 within a couple years is a very believable idea.

Release the Gremlins – $0.75 – I’m surprised that this isn’t seeing more play in sideboards, but it’s such a cheap card and we are so lacking in artifact removal in Standard that I want to have some of these around just for the scalable potential. It’s not going to blow up Modern or Legacy, not when Shatterstorm is legal, but this might have Commander appeal too. This is more likely to be a Standard spike, and otherwise might need a very long timeline to pay off in casual circles.

Planar Bridge – $2.50/$11.50/$43 for the Invention – For an in-print mythic, this is surprisingly low. There is the Invention version that soaks up some of the demand from Commander players that have to have it, but it’s still a card that the format desires. I want to have some of these around, and frankly most of my Commander decks should be playing it, but my hesitance is all due to the reprint risk. This is super reprintable, and as long as the value stays low, it can be added to a preconstructed Commander deck pretty easily. I think this risk is present in all of my picks today, but the fact that this is totally colorless gives an extra layer of risk.

Personally, I’m in favor of you getting the Invention right now if you want it, and have some foils for speculation. I think that the casual demand will have this foil up to $20 by the end of the year. I’m not expecting Tron decks to blow this up, it would be a one-of at best and that wouldn’t bump things hugely.