Category Archives: Casual Fridays

Casual Fridays

Preparing for BFZ Rotation

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I wrote a lot of words when 18-month Standard was introduced. Many many pixels were burned out with the weight of speculation about what would happen to prices.

So now, we are looking down the barrel of the realigned plan, with Shadows Over Innistrad block and Battle for Zendikar block both rotating at the end of September. That’s about five months away, but with this current infusion of energy and vitality into Standard brewing, I want to look at what’s worth keeping till the end and what you should be getting rid of soon.

Battle for Zendikar

Gideon, Ally of Zendikar ($25): I would get rid of any extras you have. He’s got some appeal outside Standard, especially as he makes an Ally every turn, but he’s a small presence in a couple of Modern sideboards and that’s it. He’s still the defining card of Standard, though, while he remains legal.

Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger ($23): I recognize that this card is about the best thing that Aetherworks Marvel can cast, and is a four-of in those Standard decks. Keep in mind, though, that this is also one of the best things to do in Modern Tron, and is also a popular card in the semi-niche Legacy Cloudpost decks. The foils available for $40 or less are something I would like to have going forward, as the Commander appeal is high. Keep all you have right now–he’s not going to dip far, if at all, when he rotates.

Sunken Hollow ($4) and the other double-check lands: If you think Frontier has a future, this is a fun spec. Fetches will be legal, and these would be among the choices for fetchable duals, since shocklands aren’t going to be allowed. I’m not going to load up on these, not yet. There is a market for these until September, as manabases are going to play lots and lots of duals (and Islands especially, for Engulf the Shore).

Part the Waterveil ($3.50): I don’t think these will fall very much, but this is among the best of the Time Walk effects in the modern day. I’m going to be trading for these on sight for the next year as a long-term hold.

Oath of the Gatewatch

Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet ($22): If you like Golgari, or delirium decks, you love this card in Standard. Otherwise, he’s ready to take a big dive. I don’t want to have any at all in my possession when rotation hits. Keep your four if you love the deck in Standard, but he’s a one-of in Modern Jund and while he’s good in Commander, he’s not good enough to keep his price high. A loss down to the $10-$12 range seems likely.

Kozilek’s Return ($11): I’d get out of this card too. It’s already done some funky tricks with its price during its time in Standard, and it’s seeing very little play outside Standard. Get rid of them.

Chandra, Flamecaller ($7): Overshadowed by the Torch, and it’s going to lose some big value at rotation. Sell/trade away all of your copies.

Thought-Knot Seer ($7): The spotlight is off of the Eldrazi in Standard, but my goodness, this is a popular card in older formats. I’m advocating that you keep the ones you have, and aggressively go after more, especially the $20 foils that will be popping at some point.

Eldrazi Displacer ($7): Thought-Knot shines in Modern, and Displacer is not only good in that format but it’s an all-star in Commander. I’m in for picking these up in foil or in nonfoil. We know that the Commander decks this year are tribal, and having one of those decks be Eldrazi seems unlikely.

Oath of Nissa ($4): Not worth keeping, and I’ll get in on some foils after rotation if they fall to about $3, as I think that’s a good entry point for the effect in Superfriends Commander decks.

Sea Gate Wreckage: ($1.50/$3): I’d be picking these up all over the place going forward. I love the potential when it gets lower and lower, but it’s seeing just enough play to keep it out of bulk territory.

Casual Fridays

PROTRADER: Unbanning Speculation

How about this week for bannings and unbannings! Gotta love when changes happen all over the place, in an apparently random way. The end result is important, though, and I think the Felidar ban is good for Standard. Shake it up!

This week, and next, I’m going to look at the currently-banned cards in a couple of formats and see what I’d like to have on hand in case of unbanning. Protean Hulk made some amazing gains when it was unbanned in Commander, and frankly, I’m looking forward to seeing how I can abuse the card in a couple of different decks.

I didn’t see the Hulk coming, but I did have a stockpile of Kokusho, the Evening Star when it got unbanned, and that was a nice play. So let’s start with Commander this week, and see what we can speculate on and what we should not get.

Power Nine: Not coming off the banned list ever, the RC is pretty clear about this. Mana Vault being legal is indeed an inconsistent application of their ‘no fast mana’ rule, but if you can get Power you should do so on general principle.

Chance of unbanning: less than 5%

 

Library of Alexandria: So this card is not legal, while the literally-twice-as-expensive The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale is. I would advocate owning a Library, as it’s got nowhere to go but up. There’s a chance this gets unbanned in Commander, since lots of disgusting things are legal.

Chance of unbanning: 25%

 

Balance: This has been banned for a long long time. If the effect was limited to creatures, it’d likely be unbanned already, but the effect on lands and hand is a very unfair and unfun experience.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Biorhythm: The RC is not big on ‘play this and win’ cards, so I don’t think Biorhythm ever gets banned. I’d like to say something like ‘Green players need to stick it to those creatureless Blue players!!’ but the truth is that G/U decks are super strong. Jerks.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Braids, Cabal Minion: This would be okay except that mana acceleration is so very good, and it’s easy to get this out early and lock the game down. If you’re locking everyone else down, go ahead and giggle, but everyone else hopes you die of paper cuts.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Coalition Victory: I feel like this should be legal, and considering the hoops that have to be jumped through, I think this has real potential to be unbanned at some point. It is a rare from a small third set (plus the Timeshifted version) and people would immediately jump on the hype. I would advocate picking some up, considering that regulars are fifty cents and foils are under $3. I get that you’re thinking ‘But it wins the game on the spot!’ and my reply would be “Look at this Reddit post and tell me Protean Hulk isn’t just as bad?”

Chance of unbanning: 65%

 

Channel: Fast mana is not good, especially with Eldrazi running around. I don’t think this is ever unbanned.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Emrakul, the Aeons Torn: This was a sore point for a long time in the EDH community, and the banning felt inevitable. This wouldn’t get cheated into play much, but it was not terribly hard to build a deck that accelerates well to the spaghetti monster. I think it’s unlikely but possible, and its use in Modern and Legacy already has affected prices.

Chance of unbanning: 10%

 

Erayo, Soratami Ascendant: This prevents people from doing things, and it’s in blue, so you’d likely need three spells to get rid of this. Unfun and noninteractive means it’s probably never coming back. However, it’s already at $9/$24 foil, indicating that there’s a lot of people who like this card.

Chance of unbanning: 5%

 

Fastbond: What makes this card busted is the potential with Crucible of Worlds, paired with Strip Mine and Wasteland. The problem isn’t someone playing three lands on turn one, it’s someone paying a life to destroy a land.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Gifts Ungiven: I always forget this card is banned, but really, it needs to be. It’s super busted, to go find Time Warp, Time Stretch, Relearn, and Call to Mind. I call that the ‘Flipped Table Special’ and that’s before I get into Unburial Rites combos. It’s already at $5-$7 due to Modern and other formats, despite being in two different Modern Masters sets.

Chance of unbanning: 25%

 

Griselbrand: Nope. Sorry. Never. Starting at 40 life and without even a ‘shuffle me from the graveyard’ clause, it’s far too good. I played with it during the short period it was legal, and it’s precisely as busted as you fear.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Karakas: It’s not that the effect is unfair, it’s how free it is being on an untapped land. A lot of Commander decks wouldn’t fold to this, but it’s so easy and free and tremendously effective.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Leovold, Emissary of Trest: I’m aware that this was designed while Tiny Leaders was hot stuff, and either ability would have been fine separately, but these two together are unfun. That said, I think he’s too expensive to spec on right now, even though I don’t think he will be banned forever.

Chance of unbanning: 15%

 

Painter’s Servant: Originally, this was legal and Grindstone was ruled to be too good. The RC decided to switch the cards, and Grindstone is now legal. I highly doubt that this ever gets unbanned, but it’s not a zero-percent chance.

Chance of unbanning: 10%

 

Panoptic Mirror: Cast it. End of the turn, imprint a take turns card. Defend until it’s your turn. Take all the turns. GG. Never ever, sorry.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Primeval Titan: This was a longtime battle to get banned. It’s severely powerful, and fetches up whatever you need, though most often it was Cabal Coffers and Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth. The presence of this card quickly becomes a battle of control and copy effects, or one person gets way far ahead on mana. This isn’t coming off anytime soon, but it’s just good enough in Modern that I wouldn’t mind having a few on hand.

Chance of unbanning: 10%

 

Prophet of Kruphix: Oh, I want this to be unbanned. Please. Please! I’ve got a stack of these that I traded for at $1-$2 each. Infinite turns on one card is too good, though, and this card enables everything in the two best Commander colors.

That being said…I’m glad I already have my stack. This is a ridiculously good card in casual circles, and it’s at a low point in its price history.

Chance of unbanning: 15%

 

Recurring Nightmare: This was ruled to be too good in 2008! That’s nine years of degenerate graveyard interactions. Graveyard hate has gotten much better, and the creatures have gotten far better. I have abused this in Cube and this would be much more likely to be unbanned if returning it to hand weren’t part of the cost! It’s already a $12 card, and is pretty much a Cube staple…and I want to have some of these on hand.

Chance of unbanning:30%

 

Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary: I don’t think he’s as big a problem in the deck as he is when he’s the commander, but he’s busted right in half.

Chance of unbanning: 10%

 

Sway of the Stars: Resetting a Commander game is lame. There’s just no other word for it. The best way to use this is with Jhoira of the Ghitu, and suspend a couple of big things to resolve after this.

Chance of unbanning:5%

 

Sundering Titan: I’m going to let loose a contrarian opinion here: I think this card isn’t terribly unfair. It can only hit lands with basic types, and that skips over a lot of lands that see a lot of Commander play. Yes, it hits basics and duals and shocks, and the battle lands and the new cycling duals, but that’s it, aside from the corner cases. I know that my three-color decks aren’t dependent on those lands, enjoying checklands, manlands, filters, Temples, etc. I think there’s a chance here. It can be had for $5, $20 in pack foil or a $35 Invention. There is room for significant growth.

Chance of unbanning: 75%

 

Sylvan Primordial: So this got banned pretty soon after it came out, and mainly because it destroys lands and then gets you more lands, enabling whatever shenanigans you’re into. You end up with one person having all their Forests out, and no one else has lands in play, once you start flickering or recurring this in some way.

That said…is it really worse than Hulk ending the game on the spot? This is a super-attractive speculation, as you can get this at nearly-bulk prices, and foils are just over $2.

Chance of unbanning: 50%

 

Time Vault: Considering all the ways there are to take infinite turns in Commander, I’m sort of surprised this isn’t unbanned, but the RC is not known for consistency, as previously noted.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Tinker: I feel like artifact decks don’t need the help. I really don’t want Blightsteel to be in play on turn one or two.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Tolarian Academy: This isn’t allowed, but I can play other degenerate and fast artifacts? Again, I wonder if the Hulk gets out of the penalty box, there’s got to be a chance for this, right? It’s at $32 now and it would jump to at least $100 if unbanned.

Chance of unbanning: 20%

 

Trade Secrets: So the rationale for banning this was when two players decided they wanted to draw all the cards together. That seems more like a failure of the social contract than anything else, but I think this will get re-evaluated eventually. Nearly a bulk rare, only a $3 foil.

Chance of unbanning: 45%

 

Upheaval: I already want to kick Cyclonic Rift to the curb, and this is even worse. I won’t have anything at all in play!

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Worldfire: Same as Sway of the Stars above. Just silly.

Chance of unbanning: 0%

 

Yawgmoth’s Bargain: Academy Rector is already super annoying, and this would be neck-and-neck for the best target, alongside Omniscience. This card spiked earlier this year for reasons I can’t seem to find, but it’s on the Reserved List anyway. Having a few on hand would only be prudent.

Chance of unbanning: 15%

Casual Fridays

PROTRADER: Price Targets for Amonkhet

Oh do I love the beginning of a set. Prereleases are among the purest tournaments to me, because I don’t know the tricks, the angles, the basics of what to be afraid of. There’s synergies to explore and so much to experience!

I don’t like picking Standard cards when there’s a banning announcement coming so soon, but there’s already some stuff that I’ve noticed and want to trade for soon.

A couple of caveats: First of all, my standing advice remains good: Trade away everything you open at the prerelease, and trade for anything that isn’t in Amonkhet. There’s going to be a big loss in almost all the prices, and picking the one or two cards that go up from here isn’t worth it. Assume it’s all going to lose value, and trade accordingly.

Second, about the price drops: The value loss is going to be real and big and significant. I’m going to give you my price targets, the value that I’m hoping these fall to before I start picking them up in earnest. Panharmonicon never fell to the dollar rare I was hoping for, but Lifecrafter’s Bestiary is surely there.

I’m going to list the prices that we currently have for these cards, but with this still being in pre-order mode, these prices reflect what stores want to get for them.

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Casual Fridays

Amonkhet Accessories

I love this time of year so very much. We have a new set that we are all drooling over and eagerly brewing with. We are amazed at the cards that are seeing print and we are full of bad predictions about prices. (I’ll get to some of those next week.)

This week, though, I want to look at some cards that I think will have strong potential with the new cards, and hopefully these will gain in value when new decks get played and get some camera time.

Lupine Prototype + Hazoret the Fervent: Is this obvious? Sure. Both of them want the same thing but that’s what we are being pushed to. Embrace it. I don’t think that Noose Constrictor is going to grow in value, though it’s the logical partner for dumping your hand rapidly. Call the Bloodline is another contender, but the Prototype has the best growth potential because it’s a rare you can acquire for very little.

The foils are intriguing, because they are eight times the price of the nonfoil. That indicates to me that either there’s a very high casual demand for the card, or someone is stockpiling foils for future spikes. You can get in on this card for a ridiculously low price, so this is safe even if the combo doesn’t take off.

Anafenza, the Foremost + Rhonas the Indomitable: There’s a surprising number of cards that come pre-loaded with the right amount of power for Rhonas to be active, but this is one of my favorites, given the rise of Abzan in Modern. I’m aware that Anafenza has had some spikes and rises already, but of the cards I want to play with Rhonas, this is a strong one.

An honorable mention has to go to Greenwheel Liberator, as a card that can come down cheap and be big enough for Rhonas. It’s easy to find four-drops that match well with the green god, but early drops are just as important. This is another one that can bump up in price significantly, since it’s under fifty cents currently.

Bloodfury Militant + either of the above: I want to point out that this uncommon is great with both of the above cards. What’s truly special is the lack of sacrifice clause. If you cast this as the last card in your hand, then you’re golden! I want this card to be good, I really do. I’m going to be going after foils fairly aggressively after the first week or two that the set is out, because the value is real. Do I think it’s going to revolutionize a format? Not at all, but this is a lot of card and a lot of potential.

White Sun’s Zenith + Regal Caracal: This is a casual combo, but what a combo it is. The Zenith is a solid card, if a touch expensive to get started, but in Cat decks, it’s awesome and might get cast more than once. We have surprisingly few Cat lords, and giving a boost to size and lifelink at the same time is going to make a lot of Cat cards better.

The Zenith is a very cheap and very good card, and seeing it pick up in value seems like a reasonable thing. Get the card in the range of a quarter or thirty cents, and watch it hit a dollar or more. The foils already have a 10x multiplier, and I would be surprised if there was another foil printing anytime soon. Seeing this foil price double wouldn’t shock me at all.

Black Sun’s Zenith + Nest of Scarabs: Black Sun’s Zenith hasn’t had much of a bump yet even though it got some attention when this card was spoiled. There’s not much better than killing all of their creatures and then getting a swarm of your own, and this is a combo that’s going to have your Commander table both envious and angry.

It’s worth calling out Carnifex Demon and Midnight Banshee as dirt-cheap spec targets that could well spike if Nest of Scarabs becomes a build-around casual card. The Banshee is a true delight to combo together, as the Insect tokens are black and won’t get counters every turn.

Splendid Reclamation + the cycling duals: Yes, this card has already had a spike when these lands were spoiled. It’s not a huge bump, and I think that the card has some room to grow. The graveyard synergies are really strong in this new set, and this is one of the most powerful things you can do if set up properly. I also really like the casual potential of this card, so feel free to stock up.

 

Cliff is a high school teacher, father of two, and newfound Cube enthusiast. While Commander will always be his first love and greatest value engine, long-term foil investments are always going to be his stock-in-trade. He prefers to diversify over a wide range of cards, rather than overload on one, as a box full of Prophet of Kruphix can attest to.