Category Archives: Casual Fridays

Casual Fridays

A Better Gifting Guide

So this week, Wizards came out with their official gift-giving guide for people that play Magic or people that know people who play Magic. It’s nice, right?

Gifts for the new player, the experienced, and everyone on a spectrum between.

However, it’s mostly bunk. It’s either preconstructed and at a rather fixed value (Planechase Anthology and Commander 2016) or it’s some form of booster pack buying. Buying someone boosters is exactly like giving them a stocking full of scratcher tickets, only they won’t feel the same need to sort and store all the losing tickets the way most of us sort and file the chaff that comes into our lives.

Last year, at Father’s Day, there was a single $25 (or so, I’m not certain) pack of Modern Masters 2013 for me from a friend. I had to stop and think about what the pack had cost, what it was likely to contain, and whether I wanted to open it.

While I considered all of this, he got impatient with me and told me to open it. So I did. Hello, $25 Grand Arbiter Augustin IV! Hello foil Mothdust Changeling! Hello, not-valuable-uncommons and commons!

So this week, I want to give you all some buying advice.

Gift #1: Store Credit

Not all local stores do this, and not everyone has a store they can go to. But you should look at it for the Magic player in your life. Maybe they want a draft. Or a sweet foil. Or twenty sodas. Who’s to say? But you’ll be getting them what they want, and that’s the best sort of gift.

Really, that’s the best advice anyone could give. You’re supporting a brick-and-mortar store, you’re enabling in-person, healthy gaming. Whatever they end up spending it on, godspeed.

This also applies to big online sites. Lots of them offer gift certificates, and while you can’t buy drafts with such a gift, you can still enable someone to make their own financial decision, instead of the crapshoot of opening packs.

Gift #2: Etsy

Have you seen the ridiculously sweet things you can buy on Etsy for people who play Magic? I don’t want to link them, for fear of favoritism, but here’s a sampling:

  • Five colors of shotglasses
  • Magic-themed wall art
  • Deck boxes, 60 cards up to a whole Cube
  • Bags/Binders/Carriers
  • Dice (oh that’s a rabbit hole, is custom dice)
  • Apparel
  • And so on!

My point is that rather than try to guess what sort of accessories someone would want, simply enable them to get the ones that they think are amazing.

Gift #3: Time

If you’re someone who has no responsibilities, then this gift won’t apply to you. Me, I appreciate when someone close to me says, “I’ve got the kids tonight. Go draft twice in a row and sprinkle in a Commander game and some trading.”

That’s a gift. Maybe you want to help someone travel to a GP or other big event, and you offer to feed the cat or something. You’re enabling someone to take longer and have an experience–something we remember for a longer time and with greather satisfaction than owning a thing.

Gift #4: Things they hesitate on for some reason

I’m donating to two different Patreon accounts these days. Both have episodic content that I enjoy a lot and I want to support. Took me a long while to come around to that, though. It’s worth the price and it’s a worthwhile goal to support people who make content that I enjoy. Help someone else do the same.

Buy someone a membership at a site that will help them track prices, organize collections, and read great articles from some of the best financial minds in the business. ProTrader is only five bucks a month! What a deal!

 

My goal here is to get you thinking about more than just crass packs. There’s endless things to gift someone, and that doesn’t even take into account things you might make them. But do them, and yourself, a favor: skip Wizards’ promotion of boosters and go after something more functional or personal.

Casual Fridays

Reprint Mania!

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This year, we’ve had a tremendous number of cards reprinted.

In order:

February: Duel Deck: Blessed vs. Cursed

June: Eternal Masters

August: From the Vault: Lore

August: Conspiracy: Take the Crown

September: Duel Deck: Nissa vs. Ob Nixilis

November: Commander 2016

November: Planechase Anthology

This doesn’t count the reprints in regular sets or the Masterpieces in Kaladesh. Also, the Standard Showdown packs are adding to the numbers of cards in circulation.

Take a moment and think about this list. Every card you have, every card you purchase, runs the risk of a reprint. I’ve talked before about how hesitant I am to speculate on a large quantity of cards because the reprint train is never stopping.

We already know that next year has another round of Modern Masters in March, as well as a Commander anthology in June. The only truly safe cards are those on the Reserved List, and it doesn’t matter if you agree with the philosophy, it’s one they are sticking to.

I also admit that I’ve totally given up on predicting what they will do when it comes to reprints. Putting Iona, Shield of Emeria in both the FTV and the Modern Masters last summer is a move that perplexes me beyond anything else.

At the same time, we are back to one rotation per year, which conversely makes Standard a lot more appealing for speculative purposes.

So what’s an aware, educated Magic financier to do?

Rule #1: Keep Quantities Reasonable

Everyone who’s tried to make money off this game has their horror stories and a box full of cards that should have paid off but never did. I don’t want to highlight anyone else’s misses, though I can think of them. I confess to owning more than 50 Prophet of Kruphix, though.

If you have a spare playset or two of a card, your exposure is limited. If you want to go crazy deep and pick up a couple hundred copies, you’re putting a lot of money at risk, especially if it’s a card that might get reprinted.

Long-term holds are basically crapshoots. I traded for thirty copies of Thespian’s Stage when it was new and less than a dollar, and I had to dodge a reprint in every casual-oriented set for it to get to the $3 it’s at now. Believe me, I had confidence in the long-term appeal of the card, but I also knew how easily it would be added to just about anything.

Rule #2: Foils When Possible, Except in Standard

It’s a truism that Standard foils are a trap. Standard players don’t generally feel the need to foil out a deck as often as Cube, Commander, Modern, or Legacy players do.

If you think a card is going to have appeal in non-Standard formats, and you’re willing to get in at a higher number, then foils are far safer. It’s not a guarantee, not at all, but it’s harder to print foil versions. On the list above, only Eternal Masters and Conspiracy 2 had foil versions of cards, and the From the Vault foiling is so unpretty that many collector-players stay away.

Here’s the caveat, though: future Masterpiece sets are a dark cloud hanging over future prices. We’ve had lands, and we currently have artifacts. This leaves us creatures, spells, and enchantments. Perhaps one set will be instants, and another sorceries. Wouldn’t be surprising.

Picking up a Masterpiece version of a card generally puts a ceiling on the previous foil versions. Foil Chromatic Lantern from Return to Ravnica will never be more expensive than the Masterpiece version. I’m surprised that the Invention version of Sol Ring has a price so close to the Judge version.

Rule #3: Be Prepared to Lose

This is perhaps the most important rule when it comes to reprints. Sometimes, you’re going to get hit. Even when your card starts to show signs of growing, something happens and it stays worthless.

Accept this. It’s going to happen. It’s not just about a missed spec, it’s something that could have been amazing but instead it’s just cardboard that you can’t even light on fire effectively.

(pause to look at my stack of Prophets and sigh)

If you’re going to play this aspect of Magic: the Gathering, you have to be prepared to not just be wrong. That’s bad enough. You have to be ready for your card to start to take off and then circumstances change and your card craters.

Imagine having a stack of Ruinous Path, and then in Shadows over Innistrad, they decided to reprint Hero’s Downfall. That’s a gut punch right in the wallet. Strictly better reprints are rare, as are emergency bannings, but they are factors you have to be ready for.

Casual Fridays

The Return of the Curve

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Oh, what a good day this is. We’ve had a few weeks since the announcement that Standard is back to one rotation per year, and I couldn’t be more excited.

It’s not exactly the same as it was, and that’s going to be an issue going forward. Shadows over Innistrad and Eldritch Moon are going to rotate at the same time as Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch. My tendency is to assume that things are the same as they were, and that’s not the case. Rotation is not equal, some are 18 months and some are 24 months.

When the change was announced, there was a big winner: Gideon, Ally of Zendikar.

gideon

Gideon’s gained more than $10 since then, and I love seeing this curve come back. About a year after a card came out, there would be something to happen to trigger demand on the card, and here we are, seeing that increase in demand.

The increase in time really benefits Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch, which gained six months. So today I want to look at some cards from those sets which have some potential and can give us some strong gains. One of the things I really look for is a low buy-in price. If I’m not spending much, that means I’m at a low risk of losing value if these speculative picks don’t pay off.

Regrettably, some of these won’t pay but the ones that do are really going to make me look good and make my wallet happy.

Part the Waterveil – $3.64 – Every kooky blue deck tends to play this as a finisher. Chaining them together is generally good enough, but I think there’s going to be a Metallurgic Summoning deck eventually, and this is going to be the top end of that deck. If nothing else, it’s an extra turns card, and those have proven to have some long-term casual appeal. With the exception of Temporal Trespass, at least.

Ob Nixilis, Reignited – $4.58 – I don’t care that it’s a Duel Deck card. It’s got room to grow. It’s incredibly effective at any point in the game, it’s powerful, and it’s still got nearly a year to make a splash. People are resisting it, but remember how well it did at the Pro Tour.

Ruinous Path – $1.74 – Black decks have all the removal. Being able to spend mana and solve a problem on the board is incredibly powerful. I’ve touted this card before and while it’s not as good as Hero’s Downfall, it’s one of the best solutions to problems on the board. To the Slaughter has popped up in decks, and this is better by far.

Linvala, the Preserver – $2.42 – This small-set mythic isn’t going to be a four-of, but if Panharmonicon decks really take off, this would be a super fun addition, capable of three creatures and ten life! It’s good in control decks, as a top end and a card that can take a game you’re losing and turn it into a game you win.

Thought-Knot Seer – $5.85 – We haven’t been lacking for colorless lands, and with Aether Hub being one of the most popular lands around, colorless mana is going to remain a useful thing. Thought-Knot is one of the most powerful things you can do with this mana, and as a popular card in Modern, there’s a lot of value to be had still.

Chandra, Flamecaller – $7.04 – Don’t forget, there was a time that she was $35! She’s got the perfect first curve, as she was adopted initially. She has a problem where she doesn’t play well with the newer Chandra, Torch of Defiance, but that card is dropping fast and I think there’s good room for growth with the big-sister version. Imagine that at Pro Tour Aether Revolt, there’s a red deck that tops out at three of these. A double-up to $15 is the low end.

Eldrazi Mimic – $.91 – I have some high, high hopes for this card in the Metalwork Colossus decks. Barring that, as I’ve written before, I am optimistic about the Eternal potential of this card.

Casual Fridays

Early Commander 2016 Results!

I have been really hoping for awesome things from Commander 2016, and frankly, it’s not disappointing. I love how Wizards has identified this niche and gives us all sorts of fun toys to play with.

What I’m really looking for is how much I’m willing to spend on singles. Until I have a decklist, I don’t know what I’m buying and I’m not willing to spend $30 on a deck and send out $35 worth of PucaPoints. Postage will eat up my margins.

I’m also nervous about knowing how many of each card is going to be printed. The markings of Mythic, Rare, Uncommon and Common don’t mean much when they are printed in equal numbers. I need to know if some of these are in multiple decks! I doubt it, but I’m not assuming anything.

To be clear, I doubt that much from this set is going to have a high price anytime soon. Commander 2015’s big winner is Mystic Confluence at $9. The 2014 version has multiple cards over $10, but the biggest is a reprint: Wurmcoil Engine. Even True-Name Nemesis, the headliner of Commander 2013, is only $14.

There are two things I want to be aware of: The prices that will fall, and the prices that will eventually rise.

Most of the cards in this set are going to fall in price, and fall hard. Others are going to trail off, after an initial burst. So what’s going to be the Blade of Selves?

blade freyalise

I liked picking up the Blade when it was a little over $10, but we have gotten to a point that after a year, people who wanted them immediately got them, and then those who sort of wanted it got theirs, and now we are at the lowest demand.

So the most expensive cards in this set are going to drop in price unless something gooses the price, which is usually Legacy demand. Containment Priest hit $50 for one weekend. True-Name Nemesis caused Wizards to adjust how many of which deck they printed.

Patience can pay off, though, if you’re willing to think in longer terms. Here’s Freyalise, Llanowar’s Fury.

freyalise

She hasn’t gone up enormously yet, but she’s crept upward, a trend that I want to be aware of.

The individual legends are going to be pretty solidly average in price. You’re going to see a lot of them that are between $3 and $7, and I don’t think that any of the ones spoiled are going to light up the Commander world. Perhaps I just can’t pick out the Meren of Clan Nel Toth, or the Nekusar, the Mindrazer out of this batch?

With this in mind, let’s look at some spoilers!

Deepglow Skate – So far, this is the card that I think is going to gain the most value right away, partially because it’s a single color (and not green for this effect!) and partially because it’s downright amazing. I am in love with this card and it’s going to go into a range of decks. If this is only in the non-red deck, then it’s going to immediately jump and decline over time. This will definitely be a long-term pickup for me.

Prismatic Geoscope – Look, we know Gilded Lotus is a good card. It’s worth considering as a first pick in a Cube, and this card is potentially better. It’s a big drawback that it enters tapped, but the potential to tap for four or five mana for only costing five, that’s a big, big jump for the mana-hungry five color decks. There’s a good chance that this is in more than one of the 2016 decks, and if it is, it’ll have a hard time keeping its price.

Vial Smasher the Fierce – While I don’t know how good this is going to be in Commander four-player games, I’m awfully intrigued by how good it might be in Legacy decks. Adding damage to the first spell a turn is tempting indeed, though I might be dreaming. Likely stays under $3.

Conqueror’s Flail – I love what this offers me, a way for a creature-heavy deck to resist really annoying cards like Cyclonic Rift or Batwing Brume. I suspect this will be a popular card but not world-shattering, and have a relatively low price. It’s solid, being +2/+2 or more for a mere two to play and two to equip, but the way it prevents interaction is the real selling point. Solid in the long-term.

Faerie Artisans – Oh this card. I want to be all over this card and sing its praises to the heavens, but the truth of the matter is that when it’s in play, your opponents will almost never play their awesome creatures with amazing enters-the-battlefield effects. It’s a rattlesnake of a card, warning them off and probably not doing much. If you are into slowing the game down this might be more your style, but this will never be expensive.

Ludevic, Necro-Alchemist – I like this as a sort of fixed Sygg, River Cutthroat, but this is another one that is really intriguing when there’s less players. It can’t draw you cards at the same rate Sygg can, but the way it pays people off for attacking each other is like a lightweight Edric, Spymaster of Trest. Still, he will probably stay super cheap.