Category Archives: Jason Alt

Commander 2016 Reprint Guide

There are a LOT of reprints in Commander 2016 and I’m not going to cover them all. However, there are quite a few that I think are worth discussing either because their value will decline more than you might think or because the value is likely to recover. This is a pile of weird Conspiracy exclusions and busted specs. Let’s do this by color because that’s how the WotC visual spoiler is organized and you’re not my supervisor.

Blind Obedience

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This was experiencing some pretty modest growth and I liked it long-term. Not anymore, though. I think I may have underestimated the reprint risk a bit by even mentioning this in the past. They have printed so many cards that do what this does, minus the extort so I thought they forgot about it. This won’t recover.

Cathar’s Crusade

They are just going to reprint this forever. Since it was never old in the first place, there are infinity copies of this card. Stay away.

Ghostly Prison

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This was doomed from the moment they banned Splinter Twin. It was a $5 EDH card that became a $20 Modern card. Now that this just an EDH card again, it will be hard-pressed to be $5 in the near future with this new reprint. I think long-term this is a loser, despite being very good. It may grow, but not enough to bother. This is a trap.

Reveillark

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This shrugged off a Modern Masters reprinting. I think we’re going to see that there is a big difference between a Modern Masters reprinting and a Commander one. I think this will either not recover, will recover more anemically or will take longer. I wouldn’t bank on this being $9 anytime soon no matter what happens.

Master of Etherium

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This HAS shrugged off Commander-sized reprints, though. Planechase was as big as the first Commander set, which, admittedly, wasn’t on the same scale as C16 is. It also saw a duel deck printing in the interim, though. This will dip but I bet Modern demand drives it right back up. If this his $4 or something absurd, and it might, buy in. Since this is in a deck with Solemn Simulacrum, Daretti (Man….) Hellkite Tyrant and Baleful Strix as well as a bunch of new cards, there isn’t much pressure on Master to be worth more than $4 or $5 and that means opportunity. Modern just eats copies of this card and EDH demand doesn’t help. I think there is opportunity here.

Army of the Damned

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The only question here is whether dumb-dumb speculation about Innistrad returning is the only reason this recovered from the Commander 2013 reprinting. I don’t think so given the shape of the graph. This may be able to shake off this printing, too. Worst case scenario, you have a card that won’t stay in a binder long.

Beacon of Unrest

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None of these fluctuations are due to reprints, this is all the card just being a card. I think this probably normalizes a buck lower than it is now at minimum. I know this appears like it’s shrugged off reprints before, but I think if this were just a fifth dawn card, it would be $15 by now but the reality is that there are a lot of copies out there and this doesn’t help.

Breath of Fury

There are like a dozen Relentless Assault effects that spiked because of Narset so they reprint the only one that is a bulk rare.

Kalonian Hydra

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I was asked to address this in the comments section. I initially obviously looked at this card because it is a hydra and it doubles stuff and what’s more EDH than that? However, I think the growth on this card has been kind of anemic. True it has doubled since it rotated out of standard and that is pretty substantial, I also think that we’re going to get a ton of copies dumped on us. I’m sure this card will recover, but I think it’s going to go to $3 or $4 from its current $12 and it will never be $12 again. So where will it end up? I could see this being $6-$8 in a year or two, so if that’s acceptable, I guess you could buy in, but I mostly think there are better finance targets. I’ll admit I should have mentioned this card before, but I was pretty dismissive once I saw the slope of its graph and for whatever reason I didn’t think this needed to be mentioned. That said, at the end of this article I sort of conclude “Everything else I mentioned probably won’t recover” which isn’t true of this card at all. There is decent reprint risk in commander 2017 or 2018 but if this isn’t reprinted it could be decent. Get these for trade, not cash is my suggestion.

Lurking Predators

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M10 cards are pretty old. If they were kids, they would have started first grade last month. When I see an M10 card go from $2 to $5 over the course of 6 years, no matter how good it is, I am not enthusiastic about it growing at that rate again with a bunch of new copies being dumped. It will probably be half that growth rate, or 3/4 of it. If you’re happy paying $2 for Lurking Predators and waiting until 2024 for it to be $5, go for it, but I think the rate is too slow for me. I’m glad this will be cheap so it can go in more decks but I’m not excited to buy in.

Oath of Druids

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People are really surprised by this, mostly because a lot of people thought this was banned in EDH, on the Reserved List, or both. It’s neither. Also, it’s not played enough in EDH for its price to be sheltered at all and it’s about to be a $2 card forever because basically Vintage plays this. Also, Oath of Ghouls is on the Reserved List and this isn’t. K.

Scavenging Ooze

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This is nothing if not an indication that they will print this card as many times as necessary. I like the idea of these being $2 for a minute, but I don’t know if this can recover as vigorously as in the past. I think this would have to get lower than it’s likely to for me to want to buy in.

Chromatic Lantern

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This is only in one deck. which attenuates the impact of the reprint somewhat. I think if this gets down to like $3, you buy in. This will go back up, and with a 4 or 5 color deck being unlikely next year, it should be relatively safe from reprint for a while and should recover a lot of value. Also, the omission of Coalition Relic gives that card some real upside.

Venser’s Journal

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This needed it. I used to buy these for like $0.50 from competitive players who just wanted bulk out of their binders and I’m excited to have a second crack at making money off of these. These might never be $6 again, but they’ll normalize above where they’re about to go.

Homeward Path

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I was surprised how little this dipped and how fast it recovered last time it was reprinted. I don’t think it getting reprinted every two years can lead to a situation where it can sustainably recover. I think this may be done.

I think the rest of the reprints in the set are going to be obvious. The prices will go down because there is more supply and the cards that were artifically being propped up like Ghostly Prison will tank more and won’t recover. I will re-evaluate these cards in the months to come but for the most part, everything I didn’t think was obvious to everyone is in here. Is there a card you’d like me to discuss? Leave it in the comments section and I can update the article. Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend.

Commander 2016 Spoiler Coverage

Commander 2016 is being spoiled and this is going to be a very tough one to assess.

For reference, here is everything from Commander 2015 that ended up being worth more than $3 a year later. This can help us at least see which classes of cards are bound to go up, but this set is way trickier and I’ll get to why in a minute.

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The value is fairly well spread out over all of the decks to such an extent that the most valuable card in the set is only $9. There was no obvious deck to buy, really. I mean, Meren’s deck had a lot of good cards but the value didn’t end up concentrated in that deck so while Meren is easily the most popular commander to play with, the value is spread out nicely, with the Mizzix deck getting Mystic Confluence, the Kalemne deck getting Blade of Selves and Urza’s Incubator, the Ezuri deck getting Command Beacon and the Daxos deck getting Black Market and Karlov. Perfect; just how we want it.

Once we start spoiling cards you will see how weak the commanders are but how in combination with the others we can build good decks. Good decks means even weak commanders can see Meren’s $6 price tag, but with 45 combinations to choose from, it will take a while before the best combinations are discovered. Hopefully the value ends up other places. Let’s look at cards, shall we?

10/28/16 Spoilers

Treacherous Terrain

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I predict in a year or two, this will be worth more than some of the rares in the set. You’re going to dome everyone for like 10 with this a lot of the time.

I waited a few hours for SCG to update their prices and they still haven’t, so I guess we’re stuck with eBay. eBay’s not a bad metric to look at, anyway. Not that it matters, but eBay wants $2 for a playset of these. Don’t pay that.

Curtains’ Call

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This is pretty good. If you’re playing this for 4 mana, it’s a beating. It doesn’t exile itself, either, meaning you can loop this and really pull pants down. But what do I know? I advocate playing Hex in EDH. This, unlike Hex, won’t get stranded in your hand for lack of targets and you’re never paying its full mana cost. I like this card a lot. This can target any targetable creature, also, unlike spells like Go For The Throat which I see played a lot in EDH. 2 mana kill spells are less good in a format where you have 40 life and everyone spends the first few turns playing ramp spells and tutors. This is like $1 and I think that may wind up being too cheap in a year, but again, that all depends on the makeup of the deck it’s in.

Duelist’s Heritage

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This seems strong. It’s a better Battle Mastery because you don’t get blown out by removal, you can play it whenever and pick the target later, and this is good in decks other than just Voltron decks. Is this going to be worth more than the $2 this is on eBay right now? That’s hard to predict. I like this card but I think it may be a bit narrow. The bar for being worth $3 or more is pretty high on these sets as evidenced by our C15 data.

Benefactor’s Draught

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Will Benefactor’s Draught ever be Money Draught? Green has plenty of cards that draw you a ton of cards and this feels clunkier than they are. You’re relying on being ahead enough to force them to do a lot of blocking or on your opponents to attack the bejesus out of each other. Thing is, at least one of those things is bound to happen. Even if you only attack with two creatures and they get blocked, you played a Green Ancestral. Anything that can draw you this many cards is suspicious, untapping all of your creatures and drawing a card even in non-combat scenarios makes this even more suspicious. This is pre-selling for $1 and I am the kind of lunatic who would buy some at that price. This is a card with potential, something you can’t say about better cards in the set that are obviously better and are therefore pre-selling for higher.

Entrapment Maneuver

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This is a pretty bad Neck Snap. White doesn’t always get the best removal, except when it does, I guess. I mean, it doesn’t always get the best removal but they can’t take Path to Exile away from us. We don’t, however, have to play non-targeted removal that is pretty terrible if they have creatures of varying size. You get some dorks out of it and can leverage this into killing 2 attacks, but you can also trade a 1/1 token of theirs for one of your own with this, also. It’s too inconsistent and is likely a bulk rare.

10/27/16 Spoilers

Manifold Insights

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I don’t trust cards like this. Sure, you’re going to draw a lot of cards, but never what you want to draw. I suspect that even the worst x cards in your top ten may be better than we’re anticipating on paper, especially if your deck is land-rich. I don’t know if this will ever be worth more than $1.

Sidenote: When I checked this price, I noticed Deepglow Skate is $3 today. I liked it at $2 yesterday and I don’t like it that much less at $3 today because that at least indicates some people are off the fence. Are you off the fence, now?

Goblin Spymaster

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I like this card, a lot. That said, this is probably priced correctly at $1. Take a second look at the list of cards in Commander 2015 that are over $3. If you buy in at $1, you want it to hit at least 3, and this card is outclassed by everything that’s $3 in C15. That said, it’s a low-risk buy-in. Just know there are only a few opportunities per set and this is not among them.

Boompile

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Do EDH players want cards like this? I kind of hate this card. I think some decks that want to watch the world burn, need a reset and can’t afford Oblivion Stone and antisocial people will want this. $2 may be too high.

Thrasios, Triton Hero

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Legendary Creature – Merfolk
4: Scry 1, then reveal the top card of your library. If it’s a land card, put it onto the battlefield tapped. Otherwise, draw a card.

Partner

I saw people online calling this a bad, expensive Coiling Oracle, which is profoundly missing two points. The first is that if Coiling Oracle could be your general, that would be pretty amazing. The second is that repeatable abilities are very good. Throw in Scry on top and this is going to come down early and help the strategy of whichever commander this is paired with execute its strategy. SCG doesn’t have a price up, but I imagine it’s a buck or two. I’m not a buyer at that price, but this is a better card than people think.

Armory Automaton

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Artifact Creature – Construct
Whenever Armory Automaton enters the battlefield or attacks, attach to it any number of target equipments. (Control of Equipment doesn’t change.)

This is pretty saucy. You’re going to deprive a lot of people of a lot of equipment. Lightning Greaves are stripped off, suddenly leaving commanders with their pants down. They still get their triggers but if they have a lot of swords, just don’t attack with the automaton. People are chattering about this in Legacy to break open some of the equipment mirrors. That’s not the craziest thing I have ever heard, actually. Not that anyone has an opportunity to play Legacy these days. This is currently a $3 playset on eBay and I’m not personally buying in, but that’s a good price if you like this.

Seeds of Renewal

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If you’re playing with the right number of players, this is better than Restock, which isn’t saying much because no one plays Restock. This is likely a bulk rare.

Divergent Transformations

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Remember when Blue was the Polymorph color? Technically this is also the riskiest removal spell in the history of Magic, also, so it’s got some flexibility to it. I think this is a bulk rare, also, but I think it may play out more interesting than I initially think. Still not a good buy at $1 IMO.

Runehorn Hellkite

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So Nekusar gets another wheel, this time a wheel that you can discard and still use? Good grief. The rich keep getting richer, don’t they? At least this can’t go in Leovold decks, too. I don’t know if this is worth $3, but being able to be whammed in Nekusar and its dragon status make that a pretty safe bet of where it will end up.

Yidris, Maelstrom Wielder

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At least they gave him trample, I guess. Otherwise this card would make the least sense of all of the 4-color cards, and that group includes a creature with a passive ability for proliferate decks stapled to a 4/4 angel with 10 combat abilities. This seems goofy – having to deal them damage to be able to use his ability. Why make a worse Maelstrom Wanderer that’s arguably harder to cast? I don’t know, I am pretty disappointed, but this likely turns out an OK commander and with the addition of black, you’ll be cascading into better removal. At $6, SCG is pretty confident this will be the most popular card so far. I don’t see much money to be made at this price, especially with how much more popular Atraxa seems to be. Let’s hope I am not letting how stupid the design of this card is blind me to the power level.

Magus of the Will

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Would you believe Yawgmoth’s Will is legal in EDH? Now we have a clunkier version of it. This will probably see less play than Yawgmoth’s Will, a card played a fair amount in a fair number of decks, surprisingly. $10? I don’t know, man. It’s a $30 card’s effect stapled to a creature, but if that were a fair way to assess a card, Magus of the Tabernacle would be $300. I just don’t know if you will ever be happy you paid $10 for this.

Ikra Shidiqi, the Usurper

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I hate this card. I might play it in a Doran deck or something, but I don’t want this as my commander no matter what it’s partnered with. I’m sure I’m being unfair to this card, but it’s clunky, dealing combat damage is harder than R&D seems to think, and I think this card is pretty disappointing. I’m certainly not a fan of paying $4. Disagree in the comments if you want, but be sure and tell me how many copies you’re buying at $4.

Curse of Vengeance

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This is probably in the Atraxa deck, which hurts its upside. Even if this effect does surprise a lot of people, being in that deck likely puts a lower-than-normal cap on its price. I think this card is cool, but depending on someone else losing could lead to the table not finishing them off just so you don’t draw a ton of cards. This is an interesting design and that doesn’t always mean good.

10/26/16 Spoilers

Conquerer’s Flail

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So this is pretty good, huh? Granting a scaling bonus of up to +5/+5 for 2 to cast and 2 to equip is solid, but not great by EDH standards. However, its second clause of turning the equipped creature into a walking City of Solitude is the money-maker. SCG hasn’t really listed anything for presale over $4 and this is no exception, but I think this may be pretty highly sought. Lots of decks want this effect, though I’m not sure how many can make room. If this were $1 like Blade of Selves were, I might be inclined to buy, but $4 may be just about right so I’m reluctant to invest. $4 is a pretty inconvenient price point because if it’s too low, there isn’t much money to be made even if you recognize that. That’s OK – this should trade well and it could have even more ubiquity than I am anticipating, so watch this card closely.

Stonehoof Chieftain

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This looks like a bulk rare to me.

Deepglow Skate

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This card is a mistake. That said, it is probably narrow enough that its power level won’t become a problem and the fact that it needs other cards to make it truly broken should make it just a solid EDH card rather than a real issue. This is pre-selling for $2 and that seems low to me, actually. I don’t hate this as a spec at $2. This is ridiculous with Planeswalkers, hydras, Goblin Bomb, Darksteel Reactor – this card is stupid. You can flicker this with Deadeye Navigator and double all of the counters on all of your perms. WHAT? $2 can’t be correct.

Akiri, Rope Thrower

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Legendary Creature – Kor Soldier Ally
First strike, vigilance

Akiri, Rope Thrower has +1/+0 for each artifact you control.

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This is weird. I guess some sort of Kor equipment deck would work for this and this gives you access to red the way the Nahiri Planeswalker doesn’t, but if you want this over Jor Kadeen as your commander in that deck, it’s probably because you’re playing Tiny Leaders and why are you doing that? Stop doing that. SCG doesn’t have a price for this, but I bet it’s $1.

Ludevic, Necro-Alchemist

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This card is really dumb with pingers, but pingers are usually pretty bad in EDH unless you throw a deathtouch equipment on them (at which point Goblin Sharpshooter becomes Goblin Mass Shooter). Honestly, there are dozens of ways to make them take damage every turn and if you’re keeping your hand full doing it, you’re going to have a good time. This doesn’t even NEED partner, but pairing this with black cards will be fun. Honestly, this pairs well with anything. UR players didn’t get their artifact commander, but this is so good they shouldn’t complain (but will). $2 is the price SCG wants, and I’m starting to wonder where they think the value will come from. If every new card is $2, the decks will be way above MSRP so they’re trying to hedge a bit. I don’t think this will be $8 in the future, either, so it’s hard to know what to do on this. Basically there is one card, maybe two every set worth preordering and I think it’s Deepglow Skate this time. Still, this card is very good.

Kynaios and Tiro of Meletis

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If I’m not mistaken, these are the first gay Magic characters. They were depicted in Guardians of Meletis and now they’re getting their own card, which is bound to make nice people happy and terrible people unhappy, so that’s good all around. It really doesn’t hurt that the card is actually pretty decent. Guardians of Meletis’ flavor text also described these two as “peaceful” so it’s no surprise that their ability is not very aggressive. Drawing extra cards, dumping extra lands and making your opponents like you fits that nicely. This card is fine and I think it might be pretty fun to build around. I imagine this ends up in the $4-$5 range eventually, so paying the $3 SCG wants is risky. This could end up $8. Do you think it will? $3 isn’t the worst entry point, then. I’m pretty skeptical, though.

Ravos, Soultender

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Another commander that is probably good enough to play even if he didn’t have partner. This card is pretty damn good, and being able to pair this with other colors is even better. Green for Doubling Season for our weenies and counters on said weenies? There are a lot of possibilities. I like this card a lot and SCG does, too because they’re preselling it for $4. I don’t know if this hits $8 ever but I do know it’s spicy. I just wish I knew which cards were in which decks so I could start to get a feel for how the value is spread out and which decks have more room to grow than others.

Ishai, Ojutai Dragonspeaker

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Hey, look! It’s my card! I was fortunate (good at my job) enough to preview this card for Gathering Magic and I hate having to review cards I preview. I used to see so many people super hyped about their preview card that they lost touch with reality. My desire to avoid that led to us on Brainstorm Brewery hedging a little and refusing to say that we actually thought Fevered Visions was Standard playable. I’m going to try and be objective and say that I think this will grow very quickly and if you can keep it alive, it will KO people quickly. Anyone who has ever grown a Taurean Mauler to 21/21 knows that. Is this great? Nah. But I like it, and if you have another commander, this is a fine card to give you access to Azorius stuff. SCG wants $2 and this might end up a $2 card so I’m not buying in. I was happy to preview this and I am OK with it if no one preorders it.

Faerie Artisans

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I can’t wait to pair this card with enchantments that double my tokens. Getting a copy of their triggers is pretty cool and getting two copies is even better. Having a sac outlet for the tokens before they can be killed is great, too. This is actually a really strong card. No price for this, yet, but I imagine this will be a buck or two. I think this could end up worth more than that. This is a very cool card. That said, Mycoloth is better and c15 reprints made that like $2.75. It’s hard to know what to make of this, but I like it.

10/25/16 Spoilers

Saskia the Unyielding

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Well, this is a thing, I guess. Punishing someone at the table, possibly someone you can’t attack profitably through a pillowfort or doubling damage on someone you can easily swang at is pretty powerful. The logic here, I guess, is that 4 colors is tough to pull off so you should be rewarded with a brutal commander if you go that route and rewarded more if you do the BALLSIEST THING EVER and don’t play any blue in an EDH deck. AT $4 I don’t know if this has any upside. All of the 4-color commanders seem very strong so far and since the blueless deck isn’t likely to have no other value in it, it’s difficult to imagine a world where this hits $10 because nothing else in the deck is worth a damn. I don’t see profit or danger in pre-ordering this, but, buying singles to play with seems silly when the decks are worth MSRP and you can trade off what you don’t want.

Breya, Etherium Shaper

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The non-green commander is pretty spicy, although I’m not all that excited to play a token engine in a deck with no access to Doubling Season and Parallel Lives. This is the same $4 as the other commanders and I don’t think that’s out of order. I’m a little unsure of how this one will play without the token abuse green gives us and I imagine people are going to be disappointed at how fair this card is.

Tymna the Weaver

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This is very, very good. It’s a shoo-in for decks like Oloro and Ayli and Karlov, all of which happen to be insanely popular EDH generals right now. I think this might actually end up being a bargain at $2, depending on what else is in the deck along with it. This is very powerful, especially if you pair Tymna with a commander that is focused on dealing them damage. This is the first card that strikes me as being potentially underpriced.

Tana, the Bloodsower

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This CAN be paired with Doubling Season and Parallel Lives and Primal Vigor and that’s good. This is in colors that are known for boosting the power and toughness of attackers, which is also good. This is a very Gruul card and that’s just fine. At $2 for a mythic (although there is one copy of every new mythic for every copy of a new common, so the rarity is more of an indication of power level than an indication of its relative scarcity like in booster pack sets) this seems like a card people aren’t thrilled with right now and unless this is as popular as something like Meren as a commander or can go in as many decks as Tymna, I don’t know if $2 is incorrect. This can push some other cards up, though.

Reyhan, Last of the Abzan

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There are plenty of Golgari cards that pair very, very nicely with this card and if you throw this in a deck with Sidar Kondo or something, you could have a pretty decent deck going. Golgari is getting all of the best cards lately and with this pre-selling for $3, more than some mythics, there is a bit of confidence in this card. It’s really tough to know how each of the billion partner creatures will pan out, but with a likely ceiling on them around $6, I don’t see money to be made buying at $3.

Vial Smasher the Fierce

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I clearly have a blindspot when it comes to Rakdos. The only Rakdos deck I have is Olivia Voldaren and it’s nothing like the rest of them. When I see a card like Pia Nalaar spoiled and think “Wow, this is underwhelming” and see Grenzo and Alesha players lose their collective $#%^ I start to wonder if I shouldn’t give more Rakdos cards the benefit of the doubt. This seems durdly to me, but apparently a durdly Kaervek has a lot of people excited. At $4, this could gain a buck or two but the post office will see most of those gains if you try to flip.

Coastal Breach

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This was probably a mistake. Making a Wrath easier to cast is a good idea, making an annoying boardwipe easier to cast is not. At least it’s a Sorcery, I guess. This will make the game take longer, and that’s really annoying. That said, this likely doesn’t end up the exact same price as the Wrath, but I don’t know which card is going which way.

Assault Cinder Horn

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Haste

At the beginning of the end step of each player, if no creature attacked this turn, put a fury counter on “Assault Cinder Horn.” Then “Assault Cinder Horn” deals damage to that player equal the number of fury counters on it.

Attack people, people. This is an aggressive card, but that doesn’t make this more than $1, I don’t think.

Primeval Protector

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We talked about this card at length on Brainstorm Brewery this week. Pay attention to cards casuals like. This probably hits bulk, but this is a card that will always trade out very well, especially to the “I’ll trade a rare for a rare” crowd. Don’t buy this now, but don’t be surprised when this is a couple of bucks in a year or two or you get a lot of requests for it.

Crystalline Crawler

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Converge – Crystalline Crawler enters the battlefield with a +1/+1 counter on it for each color of mana spent to cast it.

Remove a +1/+1 counter from Crystalline Crawler: Add one mana of any color to your mana pool.

T: Put a +1/+1 counter on Crystalline Crawler.

This seems like Mindless Automaton, Etched Oracle and Chronomaton all contributed genetic material to a bulk rare.

Selfless Squire

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This is a pretty good card but I feel like white has a lot of effects like this. Still, this may be the best fog creature we’ve seen and with +1/+1 counters mattering to some of the commanders, this could be a solid card. I don’t know if I want to pay more than $1, though, especially with all of the value I am seeing so far in terms of reprints.

Cruel Entertainment

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This is a great way to piss two people off and have them come to a “You use my turn to attack the guy who played this with my creatures and I’ll use your turn to attack the guy who played this with your creatures” truce. I don’t think this does what you want it to do, which is too bad because this card is HILARIOUS. Choose the player doing the best and the player doing the worst and hope they don’t beat you too badly. There are plenty of effects like this that are still around $1, so I don’t see profit to be made here, but this is pretty great EDH design.

10/24/16 Spoilers

Arraxa, Praetor’s Voice

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If we end up with a nice value distribution like last time, the ceiling for this card is $6. Star City is pre-selling this for $5. We’re going to make money if SCG makes a huge mistake like they did with Blade of Selves and Command Beacon. We won’t make money when they nail it like they did with Mystic Confluence. This card is stupid good, but I have to imagine the 4 other 4-color commanders are equally amazing. This power level could relegate the two-color commanders to a lower pricing tier, but it isn’t always the “flashy” one worth money – look at how Karlov is the all-star in Daxos’ deck. With this set giving us new decks instead of the usual 10, we’re going to see a lot of brewing and the hardcore people having to buy the same deck more than once. Still, I think it’s safe to say there isn’t a ton of money to be made on Arraxa even with how different this set promises to be. Arraxa sure makes other cards go up, and we’ll talk about that in the coming weeks.

Silas Renn, Seeker Adept

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This is fun but not ridiculous. His financial impact will be on other cards but the $2 SCG wants for him is just about right. Hopefully there is a commander to pair him with that gives him some sort of evasion. I like him in Esper with Daxos the Meletis and Thada Adel. This is unlikely to be a $6-$9 card in my opinion despite me liking it.

Kraum, Ludevic’s Opus

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This is better than it looks because it does two things. First, it helps Izzet decks keep their hand full, something they struggle with even with the high number of cantrips they play. Second, it allows you to access other colors by partnering Kraum with another commander to give you access to black. Suddenly an Izzet deck can play Ill-Gotten Gains, Yawgmoth’s Will, etc. Does that mean this should be more than a buck? Probably not, especially since the deck it’s in is likely to have a ton of gas.

Sidar Kondo of Jamuraa

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EDH Players: We’d like a UR creature that interacts with artifacts, please.
WOTC: We hear you loud and clear *prints a creature with flanking instead*

This card is going for $2 and I am not prepared to say how wrong or right that is. It’s possible an unspoiled commander partners ridiculously well with this. Generally, kithkinshroud isn’t the way to go wide with tokens or whatever since you usually want Cathar’s Crusade and anthems and stuff to go wide. This makes it easier for Silas Renn to hit them, though. Who knows? I think $2 is probably fine, but that means don’t buy this for finance reasons. If you want this to play with, probably buy the precon and get a dozen new cards. So, it’s hard to see a scenario where you pay cash for this.

Bruse Tarl, Boorish Herder

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He looks like Braum from League of Legends because, like Braum, he’s boring to play, doesn’t do his job better than everyone else in the same niche and literally no one asked for him. Maybe they’ll make Boros interesting some day, but that day is not today. $2 seems like it’s not a mistake.

Kydele, Chosen of Kruphix

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Printing this card was a mistake. I can’t say whether I want to pay $4 cash for these without knowing what else is in the deck because I don’t know whether this can double to $8-$9, but I do know that this card is messed up and they shouldn’t have printed it. None of the other commanders with partner are this good, so far.

Prismatic Geoscope

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How much money would you pay for a Gilded Lotus that sometimes taps for 0 mana and can tap for up to 5? I think the answer is more than $3 long-term, but I also think this can get cheaper before it gets more expensive, provided the deck it’s in isn’t relying on it to be like $6 in the short term for the deck to be worth MSRP. I don’t know if this is in one deck or five, so until we know more, this is a “wait and see” card. I am calling this a hold and the only scenario where that changes is if it’s only in one deck and that deck is garbage. I don’t know that this is the case. If this is in every deck, you’ll lose a lot of money if you preordered today. Hold.

Sublime Exhalation

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If this card is ever better than Day of Judgment it’s not going to make up for the fact that you’re playing in an annoying game with way too many players. This does get around cards that counter spells with a convereted mana cost of a certain amount, I guess. Still, I’m not excited and neither is SCG who is pre-selling this for $1. That’s cheaper than Day of Judgment and this is functionally a Day if you have 3 opponents, but I’d rather play 5 and Fumigate or pay 8 and Decree of Pain.

Old Dogs, New Tricks

Whaddup, nerds?

It’s time for another installment of “Jason talks about cards that will slowly but inevitably double or triple in value over the next 6 months to a year but not many people are going to notice because everyone is trying to make $0.50 a copy on non-mythic rares in a post-mythic era from a set with Masterpieces in it because Pro Tour hype is the best hype there is” which is the new subtitle of this series. The nautical theme felt forced, after all. If you’re still reading, it’s because you like MTG Finance on easy mode, same as me. Do you want to make a bunch of money? Go buy every copy of Black Market you can find and sit on them. It’s not every day we find a card that is so obviously and inevitably going to go up, after all. I shouldn’t have to make good calls like that all the time – Black Market has enough potential that I should be able to retire from MTG Finance.

I can’t, though. I am going to keep writing every week and coming up with other picks for you. They might not be as good or as obvious but  I always use the smart part of my brain to keep track of what’s going on and tell you what to do about it. Unfortunately there isn’t a ton to be excited about from Kaladesh at this point in terms of commanders that are going to shove other prices up so I was at a bit of a loss this week. That was, until I realized Kaladesh cards are going to be used to update other decks and if those decks gain in popularity as a result of new printings that change their relative popularity, the cards in the decks have more upside than they used to. All of the cards in the decks. It was an interesting thought and it didn’t take me very long to find an excellent example of just what I’m talking about.

Everything’s Relative

When I say “relative popularity” I mean its popularity relative to the other decks in the format and the format itself. It’s hard to track something as nebulous as “true” popularity because you wouldn’t know if the increase in the number of decks being built indicates a change in preference or a change in the overall popularity of the format. That’s why I like how EDHREC is set up because you can nearly eyeball decks that are gaining in relative popularity without having to do any math, and by “math” I mean “looking at 2 numbers and seeing which number is larger” a lot of the time. At worst you need to calculate a ratio.

It didn’t take long to see that Mizzix of the Izmagnus was making moves. Mizzix is the 19th most popular commander on EDHREC of all time with a whopping 616 decks dedicated to the weird Goblin Wizard thing. 19th overall isn’t bad but when I noticed it was the 4th most popular over the last month and the 6th most popular this week, I figured something was up. It leapt past Leovold earlier in the month and the only reason it’s not in 3rd this week is for the same reason Mizzix itself is moving up in relative popularity in my view – new cards. Ezuri is being built and redrafted because of Rashmi and Panharmonicon. Brago is being built and redrafted because of Cloudblazer and Panharmonicon again. Queen Marchesa got Kambal, Chandra, Authority of the Consuls and some land. Nearly exactly as many Mizzix decks were added this week as Queen Marchesa, Ezuri and Brago; essentially the relative popularity of all of those decks are the same but Ezuri and Brago are more popular relative to the total number of decks on EDHREC so the change is most profound in Mizzix’s case. Quibbling beyond that makes little sense because I could easily plumb through Brago and Ezuri lists for picks and I might do that next week if I’m not distracted by something else that seems more important.

New Pizzix in the Mizzix

Why the spotlight on Mizzix all of a sudden? What did it even get that makes people care?

First and foremost, I think although Aetherflux Reservoir is a pretty obvious Ayli/Oloro/Karlov card, it has applications here. Gaining life when you do what you were going to do already (play spells) and either buying yourself a cushion to help you not die or giving yourself the ability to point and click delete someone at the table is appealing. This card is going to be expensive in a year or two but for now, it’s not going to push up individual cards so much as decks. You’ll want to either gain a ton of life the hard way or play a ton of spells and gain life the… other hard way. Look, being able to treat an opponent like Alderaan shouldn’t be easy.

The other card that is more unique to Mizzix in my view is Metallurgic Summonings, a card I’m not super sold on. Luckily my skepticism steered people away from preordering, which would have been a mistake. Now if the card is actually good in EDH I get to jump on the bandwagon and act like when I write about it, I’m discovering the card. It’s a win-win for me, which is rare because normally the position of having to evaluate cards in formats you don’t play sucks. If Summonings ends up a good cards, Mizzix will be one of the few decks that can really take advantage of it. You have mana rocks and such so even if they start picking off the little durdle monsters you summonings, you should still be able to hopefully qualify for the “ultimate” on Summonings and serve a bunch more spells to their domes.

Insidious Will is not a card that was an impetus for Mizzix seeing more play, nor was Spirebluff Canal nor was Saheeli’s Artistry, but I think all of these cards make the cut in a decent percentage of Mizzix decks, but it’s hard to say how greedily people want to jam new cards considering they’d have to cut something out of a deck that was already running well if they want to make room for new stuff. That’s easier for a Fast Land than it is another Cryptic Command, although Insidious Will is too many cards in one not to consider. It does everything this deck wants.

What’s got upside moving forward if we get a sustained increase in the popularity of Mizzix that isn’t completely nipped in the bud by Commander 2016?

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Mizzix’s Mastery’s graph is a bit all over the place, but with the price seeming the plateau and there being little chance of decreases in the price of cards like Mystic Confluence, it seems like we’re entering a period where the total price of cards in the precon will no longer be bound by MSRP. This means Mizzix’s Mastery can go up in price without anything else going down. The weird balancing act of MSRP enforcing the total price will be out the window, so watch Mastery. It hasn’t impacted Legacy (and who’s even playing Legacy anymore?) the way we might have hoped, but it’s impacting Mizzix decks in EDH and every copy that ends up in a Melek or Jeleva deck means there is one person who has a copy of Mizzix that needs a copy of Mizzix’s Mastery that didn’t come from the same precon as the Mizzix. If you need 1.01 copies of Mizzix’s Mastery for every Mizzix deck built, you’re going to see the price move. I like it at its current price (near historic low) a lot.

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Even though this card is at its historic high point, it’s by no means done going up. EDH is pushing the whole cycle (except Increasing Devotion, which was pantsed by a reprinting) up and now is basically your last chance. These cards are decently reprintable, but with them all but ruled out for Commander 2016 and not super likely in Commander 2017, you have a few key venues for reprinting them ruled out (not ruled out per se, but I’m confident enough that they’ll dodge reprintings in both C16 and C17 to the extent that I’d bet my own money).

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It’s hard to find a card that seems more directly tied to the fate of Mizzix. As Mizzix gains in popularity, demand for this card will grow at an equalish (not 100% of Mizzix decks run this, though they all should) rate. Expensive and powerful, this is the perfect example (another would be Expropriate) of a card that rewards you for doing what Mizzix does. Once this costs like 4 or 5 mana because you have so many experience counters that every spell is trivial to play, you’ll see how trivial winning the game is, also. You should be able to find a way to win the game if you resolve this and if you don’t, a Feldon’s Cane or a Mizzix’s Mastery or something should be able to finish them off. Drawing your entire deck, discard all but 7 cards then aiming a big Mastery at the table is a very satisfying way to win, and casting Enter the Infinite for cheap seems ideal. This spell was made for Mizzix and as Mizzix gets more popular, expect this to grow – not that it wouldn’t have anyway.

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This is never getting cheaper. With multiple decks that want this effect, though perhaps none more than Mizzix, and Origins fading fast from memory, this little enchantment that could, and still can, is a pretty safe pick-up. Its effect is very simple but the scry on top of the spell cost reduction means it’s never irrelevant, even when you have more experience counters than you know what to do with and your opponents can’t seem to even temporarily get Mizzix off of the board. I like this moving forward.

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This I’m interested to watch. I don’t know whether Mizzix is going to push it up all that much or not, but what I do know is that I should keep an eye on this card and this reminded me of that. It’s not so much what this card does or doesn’t do, although that factors. What is most interesting is that this will be a good test case for how recently a spiked card can grow based on some sort of demand (if there is any mind you – this is all contingent on a “maybe”) because copies never got a chance to fade into the woodwork. Are we at an artificial low because price memory is propping the price irrespective of demand? Will that matter if new demand kicks in and the card begins to climb? Are there too many copies because there are a lot of copies of any recent card? I want to see what happens to this card, an EDH staple to be sure, because it can inform what will happen to other cards that are picked up by casual formats as soon as they are out of Standard (this might help us figure out what is going to happen to Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time, also, though I think I already know ).  How the price of Goggles diverges from a card like The Chain Veil will be incredibly instructive. Then again, The Chain Veil could leave the goggles in its wake, and that wouldn’t surprise me, either.

That does it for me this week. I hope you’re not let down – I kind of expected a few juicier cards in the Mizzix deck, but there is a real problem with something I’m calling “The precon effect” that I’ll delve into a bit deeper. Possibly not on this website – it’s possible I’ll be writing more EDH content in addition to my current MTG Price and Gathering Magic articles very soon, and I’ll announce that here when I know more. Thanks for sticking with this series, everyone. Until next week!

Luxury Yachting

I couldn’t think of what to write about this week. When I’m not doing the set review stuff, I tend to try and pick a new commander that could force other prices up, because that takes weeks, it’s obvious when it’s going to happen, and I’m not the kind of writer that can write about card prices after they go up and have people praise me for it.

I couldn’t think of a commander to write about this week and it was bumming me out. Depala? Yeah, no thanks. As much fun as building around a dwarf beeping around in a bunch of cars can be if you’re playing against opponents who just opened up a commander precon, it’s probably not very competitive. I’m really gunshy after I gave casuals a little too much credit, predicting an increase in the sale of a lot of clerics when Ayli was spoiled. I was half right – Ayli became one of the most popular commanders in the last 6 months and she spiked a lot of prices. The half I was wrong about was which cards – clerics are largely unchanged while lifegain cards that were already being propped up by Oloro and later, Karlov, saw a bump. Nailing which commander is going to spike cards isn’t helpful if you don’t correctly predict which cards. I’m not going to tell you to buy a bunch of dwarf tribal stuff only to have Depala come along and make a bunch of artifact creature stuff and equipment spike and you’re holding a bunch of useless dwarf cards like a straight buster because you assumed I knew more about EDH than you do (I mean, I do, but I don’t know more than every EDH player combined and that’s whose behavior I try to predict, usually successfully).

If I didn’t think the Ayli whiff was a fluke, I’d quit writing this stupid column and talk about something else. I’m not the kind of writer who gets to write about something he knows nothing about and have people praise me for it. I’ve spent years studying EDH finance so you don’t have to which I imagine is great for those of you who don’t want to. So, no, I do think the Ayli thing was a fluke – I correctly predicted her power level and overestimated the casual community’s affinity for building a tribal deck they’ve been clamoring for. Everyone was upset when we didn’t get a good GR werewolf but when we did get a bad one, some of the prices of werewolf cards went up because of people who don’t understand how this works buying speculatively and they’re back down already. If one of the 10 most popular EDH generals from the last year can’t spike foil Starlit Sanctum, you making money from foil Moonmist on the back of Ulrich of the Krellenhorde is a pipe dream.

That’s a long way to go to tell you I didn’t want to write about Depala this week. Meanwhile the rest of the list wasn’t too exciting, either. Oviya looks like a good inclusion in the 99 of an existing deck, but there’s literally no reason to play her over Rhys which gives you Cathar’s Crusade and all but one anthem effect. Pia Nalaar is good in maybe a Grenzo deck but I don’t want her at the helm of mono-red even a little bit. Padeem looks like an OK inclusion in a different deck and I’m sure a non-zero number of people will build with him/her at the helm but, again, not going to compel anyone to build the deck enough times that the price of anything goes up. Same with Kambal – there’s no reason not to play Karlov or Ayli and just jam him in there. I was getting frustrated. Then I realized the card I wanted to write about had been staring me in the face all along.

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Of course! Panharmonicon is this set’s Doubling Season! This card is going to change the way EDH is played! How many cards will this card alone spike? I fired up EDHREC and moseyed over to Panharmonicon’s page and got ready to write an article about how Panharmonicon is the best general in the set.

What I’m Actually Going to Write About

Oh yeah. I missed one.

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Oh yeah. This guy dude thing  genderless creature. Gonti, Lord of Luxury is one of the aetherborn and it’s going to be very popular in EDH. Want to know how absurd it is that I neglected Gonti when I was going over the list of potential commanders in this set to write about? I wrote about Gonti on Gathering Magic two weeks ago. The card is very good and it’s already one of the most-searched creatures from the set on EDHREC and it’s got the highest affinity percentage with Panharmonicon. This goes hand in hand with what I consider the best EDH card of the set. It does something pretty new for a commander, also – while a lot of the legendary creatures are bad versions of better creatures that already exist, this does something relatively new and pretty potent. I have a lot of thoughts on this and they are informed by having already drafted a deck based on this card that people seemed to like. Let’s get a stew going.

Bye These Crads

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When I first read Gonti, I was interested in ways to rebuy it and get the trigger over and over. The deck is going to be mana-hungry but a lot of EDH decks are and I figured that would take care of itself, especially in mono-black. I wanted to make sure the effect was repeatable so we could really get an advantage and one of the ways I thought about doing this was sacrificing Gonti for mana and using Deathmantle to get multiple triggers. This is already going up, it’s already played in other decks, it’s already a part of several infinite mana combos (composite golem ftw) that have even been touted by (terrible, just the worst) modern players. Plus this was a Jason Alt Pick of the Week on Brainstorm Brewery which gives it a lot of upside those other factors don’t. This won’t go up just because of Gonti but Gonti will help, something this card didn’t need. Buy these, watch the foils and be glad you got in when they were cheap, then hold them too long and get smashed by a Commander deck reprinting. If these aren’t reprinted this fall, though, it will be at least a year and a lot will happen to this price in a year. If you didn’t buy in at the floor, there is still time to make money. Oh, and this is good with Panharmonicon, the card I’m pretending is the general of this deck.

This is the card I’m most excited about, so I think with it out of the way, we can talk about mana before we move on.

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Did you notice this creeping up to its pre-reprint levels? These at $1 was absurd and didn’t last long and that Commander reprinting gave us an opportunity to get a lot of these for cheap. I think this won’t stop at its current level, despite the reprint. This is very, very good in black decks and if Nirkana Revenant is any indication, the ceiling on this is very high despite the gigantic difference in the relative scarcity of the two cards. The effect is in-demand enough that there is upside to Ghast if you buy in around $2 because it will be $5 soon and could go even higher. Another reprinting won’t sink it forever, so if it hits $1 again, buy even harder because it has shown it can recover. This solves your mana problem in the deck, is cheaper than Nirkana Revenant and is everywhere. I like this card a lot.

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This is a “watch” not a “buy” but it’s worth mentioning. If this gets any cheaper, it will be attractive for two reasons. The first is that the lower it gets, the less impetus there is for a reprinting and the more likely something like Cabal Coffers gets printed instead. This has 3 printings and that has taken a toll on the upside – this is unlikely to see $40 again. The second reason this will be attractive as it goes lower is that some deck in Modern will want this again and you will have copies ready to sell. People keep cards for Modern but almost everyone has a deck and a little build stock – a lot of Modern stuff is sold off when it falls out of fashion only to pop off again later. This is a card that will be more than it is now, so if you can buy it when it’s less than it is now, you’re sure to make money.

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Were you frustrated seeing how expensive Crypt Ghast got while you weren’t paying attention and did you find yourself wishing you could know when a card was at its floor and was bound to go back up so you could buy at that point rather than after it was too late? This card is Crypt Ghast when Crypt Ghast hit $1 after its reprinting. You want a card that’s going to be $10 again and is $4 now? This is so obvious that pointing it out feels like cheating.

The rest of the ways to make mana in this deck are expensive and I don’t see much upside.

We do have some other ways to rebuy Gonti’s effects, though.

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Someone tried telling me that the first spike wasn’t the result of Star City buying every copy of this card when Beck//Call was spoiled. It’s probably a co-incidence that the price was $3 on April 9th and $12 on April 12th, right? Hey, when did Dragon’s Maze come out? Was it April 2013? This is all probably EDH demand that did that.

Speaking of EDH demand, it exists. That said, it probably can’t sustain the current price and it appears to be tailing off. I think you watch this because if the only reprint this will get is a Masterpiece I think this has upside from wherever it bottoms out. You can probably make money buying now, but you can probably make more buying later and I prefer more money to less money. This is great with Gonti, among other decks, and cross-format applications only give you more chances to make money. EDH staples can maintain their prices well making them safe investments and other formats can give you a big boost making cross-format cards perfect buys. I like Curio, but I’ll like it more later.

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Second spikes are a thing and this has demonstrated it can be $3 and that means increased demand could push it toward those levels again. This could get lower but it’s likely that it goes up, especially with more attention from players wanting to rebuy ETB effects. If you’re in a color where you can Deadeye Navigator or Eldrazi Displacer at will, you’re not liable to be hyped about this, but if you have no choice, you might want to give this a try. Gonti plus Panharmonicon make me want to ABC.

glengarry-glen-ross-di

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This returns stuff. This is just the kind of card that is going to be worth money long-term based on EDH demand. This is also way less reprintable than a lot of cards. This isn’t exactly a Phyrexian Arena but sometimes it’s better. If you’re letting stuff die or putting your general in your yard so you can cast him later, this is a card you trifle with. So trifle with it and 100 copies of it and you’ll be glad you parked the cost of a dinner at TGI Friday’s in an appreciating asset rather than in giving you and a date diarrhea.

That’s all I got. I mean, there are more cards that have less upside and fit the theme of the deck less, but we don’t need to concern ourselves with those cards this week. What we do need to do is eventually bring this week’s article to a close. Thanks for sticking with me and reading my silly column every week. Share this on twitter and facebook and let’s all make some money on cards that are going to go up anyway. A store can sit on these for a year or you can buy them and sit on them for a year then sell them back to the store. Until next week!