Category Archives: Jason Alt

My Masterpiece Masterpiece, Part 2

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Get it? Do you GET it? It’s Master P, the musical artist.  Puns have always been terrible, but something about combining them with mediocre photoshop makes them super endearing. I may be showing my age a bit here but late High School/ early College for me was Something Awful’s heyday and it was wall-to-wall posts like this. Anyone remember YTMND? Nobody? You guys are making me feel really old over here. That’s cool, Master P will still be my friend, and he can help us talk about bling.

This is the part of the article where I got the idea to pretend I was asking Master P about all of the prices then, literally less than a second later, abandoned the idea. I’m opting to structure this piece exactly like the first one, which I’m sure you read but in case you didn’t, there it is. The green part. You just click on the green text with your mouse. This green text, here I’ll do it again. Got it? If you haven’t read it, go read it. I had to re-read it myself because I figured out a lot about how these things are being priced and I forgot ALL OF IT in the last week. I could easily have written the second half last week and just released it this week, but I actually wanted to see if any of the prices changed in the intervening week and they didn’t. It makes sense – what impetus is there? These are so expensive that they’re unlikely to sell out. How ambitious is SCG that they would restock masterpieces if they sold out of them, anyway? “Oh snap, there goes another Sol Ring. Put us down for another 500 cases so we can make sure we get another Sol Ring to send to this dude” seems like an unlikely scenario, even for Star City. So I don’t expect prices to change too much, which is too bad since these were clearly all guesses. Educated guesses, but still guesses.

Speaking of educated guesses, but still guesses, let’s get into the second half of these Masterpieces, shall we?

Mana Crypt

manacrypt

Mana Crypt is getting its second reprinting in a short period of time and there are two groups of people – one group which I will call the 99% who are happy about this and another which I will call the 1% who bought an ugly, foil Mana Crypt from Eternal Masters and who have to be piiiiiiiissssed that this is a Masterpiece already. Personally, I am still a big fan of the original book promo, but then I remember I sold mine for $35 in 2006 and I get sad all over again.

The Eternal Masters foil is holding steady at $150, so $200 for the Masterpiece version which is better looking seems fine to me. I’m wondering which version will have more copies out there, though. A foil mythic from a small print-run set or a version where any masterpiece at all is only showing up once in 4 boxes but the set is printed at-will and will probably be the best-selling set of all time. I’m still inclined to say the Masterpieces will be much more rare, so $200 for Mana Crypt is probably just about right, at least for now. I could see it having a bit of upside, especially when Kaladesh is out of print, but not enough upside to want to drop $200 on it.

Ultimately, this seems like it will be the most expensive Masterpiece and with upward pressure on its price from underneath vis-a-vis the Eternal Masters version maintaining its price, it’s unlikely to drop in my view. I could be wrong, but I can’t really envision a scenario and support it with facts. Mana Crypt is an EDH and Vintage monster and if it isn’t banned in EDH, which I can’t see happening (not that I saw Prophet of Kruphix coming) it is likely to increase over time. Will they do Mana Crypt as a Masterpiece again? Hard to say, but it won’t be for years if they do and the meager supply seems unlikely to satisfy what will likely be pent-up demand. I realize I’m writing a lot about this card, but it kind of matters a lot and I’m glad I didn’t try to tackle this card last week at the end of the article when I was out of steam. It probably would have looked like this –

manacrypt

Wow, this is expensive.

OK, see you next week!

You guys deserve better than that. I mean, a little better than that, anyway.

Mana Vault

manavault

Mana Vault is played a lot more in EDH than Mana Crypt. And why not? It taps for all of the mana, you can leave it untapped and forget about it when you’re not using it and not have to take damage from it every turn, it’s like $10 from 4th Edition so you can actually have reasonable expectations of owning one- there are lots of reasons that more decks in EDH use Mana Vault than Crypt. Do I think that means the Vault has more upside than the Crypt? I actually don’t, really. I think the same people who can afford to but either will buy both and play with both. Lots of decks run Vault that don’t run Crypt, but the people who can afford Crypt will run both whereas the reverse isn’t true, necessarily. This means the people who can afford a $200 foil Mana Vault could afford a $70 Mana Crypt and therefore are likely running Crypt in their deck already. Will they buy a Masterpiece Vault but not a Crypt? I think the face that $10 versions of Vault means it’s accessible at the lower levels, but I don’t think we can say since there are more 4th Edition Vaults, more Masterpiece Vaults will be purchased and the price will diverge from Crypt. Also, we have no data on foil Vault so we’re guessing. If there were a foil Vault in Eternal Masters we could just compare those two prices and extrapolate. Well, we can’t do that. We’re forced to try and analyze the behavior of people who will pay $200 for a single card for a casual format (or Vintage, let’s be real, and there is nothing reasonable about Vintage). In the end, whether or not Vault or Crypt ends up worth more, I think it’s safe to say that we can extrapolate from the foil Eternal Masters price of Crypt that both of these cards are probably about the right price and if you don’t expect these to be $500 in a year the same way I don’t, I don’t think there is much urgency to buy in at $200. Watch the expeditions for what the Masterpieces are going to do a year later.

Mind’s Eye

mindseye

$50 seems to be the minimum price for these non-Gearhulk cards. I see a little downside here because this is a $15 set foil compared to a $20 set foil like Lantern. This is played less than Lantern although it’s an important piece in the decks where it’s good. I think this has some downside at $50 although not a ton.

Mox Opal

moxopal

I don’t know how to evaluate this card because it has practically 0 EDH demand. We’re banking on, what? People pimping out their Modern decks hardcore? This gets played in Vintage and maybe people with Japanese foil Mox Opal want this instead. I don’t think cards with 0 EDH appeal should sell for more than cards that are playable in Modern, Vintage AND EDH. This just got a Modern Masters reprinting and is down to like $50 in set foil, making me think $180 for the masterpiece is too ambitious. However, Expeditions have shown that cards that are almost exclusively played in Modern should maintain their price for a while.

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Painter’s Servant

paintersservant

I really can’t get behind paying $80 for a card that’s played in literally one deck and that one archetype is almost exclusively played in Legacy, a format everyone decided a year ago that we shouldn’t hold any events for. This is a $50 set foil but I don’t think that justifies the $

80 price tag, at all. I think a card needs to get played a ton and have some cross-format appeal and this is banned in EDH. I think this has some downside.

Rings of Brighthearth 

ringsofbrighthearth

The math on this card is all wrong. This is expensive because the Tiny Leaders speculation crowd bought the internet out of these because they’re so good in a pretend format people don’t play anymore. That’s what happens when you invent EDH for people who hate EDH. Now the price is all sticky, no one is in a hurry to dump a card that gets significant use in EDH (the real kind) so we’re stuck overpaying. I guess $50 is the minimum so this isn’t mispriced by Masterpiece standards, but it’s the $50 card I’m least impressed with.

Scroll Rack

scrollrack

This is a card that spiked because of anticipated demand in Miracles decks that never panned out and, like Rings, stayed high because a non-zero amount of EDH demand seemed to justify the cost. With only an ugly Commander’s Arsenal foil to try and guess this price from, SCG has priced this at $60. They reckon people will pay more for a foil Scroll Rack than a foil Lightning Greaves. I am actually not so sure, but I think some of these prices will fluctuate around $10 plus or minus, so even if they’re wrong, worst case scenario is this approaches the $50 we think it should be, now.

Sculpting Steel

sculptingsteel

My initial reaction at seeing this was chosen was to conclude that this had the most potential to lose money at $50 and a maybe that’s just because this has a $15 set foil and it’s the same price as cards with $30 set foils.

Sol Ring

solring

At $150, this price is high but maybe not high enough. This is probably this set’s Scalding Tarn and while other cards have higher foil prices, nothing matches the combined EDH and Vintage demand of this card. This is an absolute EDH staple so while theoretically only people with lots of money are going to upgrade to these and those people will theoretically also play Sword of Fire and Ice and Mana Crypt so in theory Sol Ring should scale with the rest of the Masterpieces, the fact is 99% of EDH decks run Sol Ring so this is likely the Masterpiece with the highest demand, even accounting for these being luxury goods. Tarn maintained $300, I see no reason this can’t maintain $150 or even head up, even in the short term.

Solemn Simulacrum

solemnsimulacrum

I don’t think $60 is correct. They did their best to extrapolate the price from its set foil price, which is a mistake. This has a lot of foil printings for people to choose from, meaning demand is satisfied to a greater degree than for other cards. I’d argue that there are more copies out there waiting to be upgraded. Along with Sol Ring, this is an EDH staple and I think this could have pre-sold for $80 and shipped out briskly. That said, I don’t expect the demand to be so high that it outpaces the other $60 cards and you’ll wish you bought in at this price, but Expeditions indicate prices won’t tank, at least in the next year.

Static Orb

staticorb

This shouldn’t be the same price as Chromatic Lantern. I think too many of these prices were extrapolated from set foil prices and not relative demand. If this maintains $50, I expect Lightning Greaves to take off and I doubt that will happen. Maybe what we have here is a non-zero amount of pent-up demand and enough people to buy these copies at their current price but not enough to buy them at a higher one. You have to really love your cube and hate your friends to pay $50 for this, I think. Of course the set foil is around what Chromatic Lantern is – this is a 7th edition foil. You could equate these two cards on that basis, or you could remember that a 7th foil Static Orb is worth that same as a 7th foil Storm Crow. This card is destined to under-perform financially.

Steel Overseer

steeloverseer

Pricing this at $70 seems to indicate SCG has more faith in the ability of Modern and Vintage to grow the price of cards than EDH. That’s probably true from their perspective since they sell a lot of cards at tournaments and therefore to tournament players. They also sell a lot of cards on their website where tournament players are reading tournament articles. We’ll see – Modern and Vintage made this a $50 set foil so they had no choice but to mark this higher than cards with $20 set foils. I bet this can maintain this price.

Sword of Feast and Famine

swordoffeastandfamine

I’m puzzled by this being pegged at over $100. This is a $50 set foil with a $55 judge promo foil. $120 for this seems reasonable since a 2x multiplier for a Masterpiece is reasonable, but they are charging $80 for a different card with a $50 set foil. I don’t know if this can maintain $120 based on that, but EDH helps with this more than it does with Steel Overseer, so there’s always a chance. I am still kind of skeptical that any of the swords can maintain this price tag.

Sword of Fire and Ice 

swordoffireandice

This card has an even more complicated history than Feast and Famine. The takeaway here is that they didn’t apply the standard 2x multiplier here because they want the same $150 for this that they’re charging for the Modern Masters foil. That was one of the iconic cards from Modern Masters, sure, but implying this will be the same price seems ballsy. One of the prices in this set is way off, but even using Expedition data I can’t for the life of me figure out which one.

Sword of Light and Shadow

swordoflightandshadow

At $120, this is probably in the same boat as Feast and Famine, although this is a little closer to Fire and Ice in terms of the impact of one new printing given this has been printed in foil more times than Feast and Famine. I have no idea if $120 is correct, but I can’t see any factor other than raw demand being powerful enough to move the needle on this price too much. No one will have enough of these for people to start undercutting each other on price so these prices are bound to be a little sticky, but eBay is going to really be the price to watch going forward.

This is a weird set. If Expeditions are to be believed, the prices will do a pretty good job of maintaining, almost irrespective of demand. I think it’s possible that the only thing that matters is whether there are enough people who will pay the prices on these and not the demand of the individual cards relative to each other. You set an initial price justified by historical prices of other foils of that same card rather than relative EDH or Vintage or Modern or Legacy demand and you bank on there being enough people who want to pay as much for one card as you’d pay for a full set of all of the 2016 precons to justify that price and price memory and an unwillingness to cut the price on a card you’ll likely only ever see one copy of just to ship it will prop the price up. Who knows? I am going to watch the prices of Expeditions to see what is likely to happen to the Inventions. Masterpieces every set? That could put a damper on people banking on scarcity since they’re going to have to resort to reprinting cards they have already reprinted soon enough. All I know is that this is a lot of guesswork on everyone’s part and the bottom line is that you should only buy these if you want them to play with until we have enough data to accurately predict how much you stand to gain or lose.

Next week we’ll talk about something I know a lot more about and we’ll all be happier for it. Until then!

My Masterpiece Masterpiece – Part 1

Welp, I’ve done it again. I’ve committed to doing an article that’s going to be a lot of work that I’m not even sure if I want to write anymore. Seriously, have you seen how many Masterpieces there are in this set? And I said I would write about all of them? What hubris. But that’s what I do, I overcommit and challenge myself not to underdeliver.

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You guys are worth it, though. You’re the best and savviest readers in the business because you know EDH is slow, forgiving, predictable and steady. It might not be as sexy as Pyromancer’s Goggles spiking overnight and everyone scrambling to place and order that’s going to be cancelled before everyone else does, but the sports car you buy with all of the money you make buying Squandered Resources for a quarter each will be.

Can we predict where the Masterpieces are likely to end up? Where they’ll start out? What this will do to the price of the set? We can sure try. Let’s get messy.

The Gearhulk cycle

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Star City wants $40 for these beasts, which may or may not be too much. I feel like this won’t get as much EDH play as they need to in order to sustain $40. With 2/3 of the Zendikar expeditions trending downward in price, EDH demand isn’t enough on some of these cards and I don’t think these will even have much EDH demand. Noxius and Torrential are obviously good, but good enough? I don’t see it. These are a sell at their current $40.

Aether Vial

aethervial

SCG wants $120 for this right off the bat, and I think that may be pretty close. There are 9 Zendikar Expeditions currently above $120 and half of them are trending upward in price right now. Of course the top 5 are all fetchlands used in multiple formats, which makes it tough to judge the price of Vial. However, Ancient Tomb is currently $120 and  I think Vial is a decent corrollary for Vial, actually. It’s used as a 4-of in the decks that use it and it’s used in multiple formats. I feel like Ancient Tomb gets used in a few more places than Vial, however. Vial has Darksteel foils, FTV foils, Modern Masters foils and now these. Is this Masterpiece far and away the sexiest? Yes, and people who want these will want 4. If you look at Ancient Tomb, the price has barely moved, but Ancient Tomb doesn’t have the Modern demand Vial does, leading me to believe Vial could have upside due to there being more demand for it than for Tomb. FTV Aether Vial costs 50% more than FTV Tomb, but those have wildly different availability, so that’s sort of meaningless as a metric. Ultimately, I don’t think Vial at $120 is correct based on how much more in-demand it will be than Ancient Tomb. I think this has upside.

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I hope the rest of these go quicker. I got cocky being able to do 5 at once and I just wrote half a book about one card.

Champion’s Helm

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and

Chromatic Lantern

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$50 for this is almost certainly incorrect for Helm. Scarcity has made Helm expensive – it is $2 more than Chromatic Lantern despite being in far fewer decks. However, I don’t think the prices will stay similar. There will be the same number of Expedition Champion’s Helms and Chromatic Lanterns with much greater demand for one than the other. I think the prices will diverge. We’re left to figure out which way prices will go. Considering a regular foil Lantern is already $20, I am inclined to say that $50 may be too cheap for Lantern. Mana Confluence is a $50 Expedition and that is down from $80 and has a $17 foil from the set. I think the starting point for the Expeditions may be misleading because a lot of those were pure guesswork and we have some more data this time. I think Lantern may have a bit of upside at $50, but, again, looking at Mana Confluence which has a very similar non-foil price, it may hover around $50 +/- $5 or so because while EDH demand for Lantern is very strong, it’s only the one format. I think Helm will tail down in price more than Lantern does. I have taken into account the fact that this is the only premium way to get Champion’s Helm and there are already foil Lanterns – I think the profound difference in demand within EDH more than accounts for that.

Chrome Mox

chromemox

Chrome Mox is an odd card. Banned in Modern, underutilized in Legacy, not a great deal in EDH, this card nonetheless is commanding $80 out of the gate. People who want one are likely to want 3 or 4 and that could be the factor that makes this sell higher than EDH staples that disappear one at a time. Chrome Mox is a $40 set foil despite also being printed as a $25 GP Promo.

It’s hard to find a corollary for this. Almost all of the expeditions lost at least 30% of their value over time due to the sheer amount of guessing that went into pricing them initially and the stickiness of prices on very rare, luxury cards. There won’t be a huge race to the bottom on any of these cards, so a lot of these prices may hold. The very highly-sought cards will have upside but the rest will likely tail off and I think this is likely to tail off a bit, or at least have a very difficult time growing in price. I don’t like this at $80.

Cloudstone Curio

cloudstonecurio

I’d stake quite a bit of money on this tanking. I wish I could short it, frankly. SCG wants $50 for this, which I don’t think it can sustain. Curio is used in a few goofy combo decks and basically just Animar in EDH (I mean, I use it in a lot of my decks but EDHREC data shows Animar uses it 6 times as often as the deck where it gets the second most use and it’s used about a tenth as much as Lantern) so you have to question where the demand is coming from. It basically isn’t, put simply. When Beck//Call was spoiled SCG bought the internet out of Cloudstone Curio banking on a UG elf deck emerging in Modern because Elves wasn’t quite getting there with Glimpse of Nature banned. The deck never materialized (I bet my money on Intruder Alarm and had even less luck). The price is sticky and that’s leading to an overevaluation of Curio in my view. I don’t think its current demand makes it a good candidate to be the same price as cards with more demand. This is a sell.

Crucible of Worlds

crucibleofworlds

At $150, this is one of the more pricey Masterpieces based on SCG preorder pricing. Wasteland Expedition is currently $150, down from an initial $300. Wasteland has 2 DCI rewards foil versions worth $250 so it seemed logical for Wasteland to start out at $250+. What do we have for Crucible? A $100 Judge foil and 2 set foils around $100 also. Wasteland fell below its judge foil versions, although those are quite scarce and the Crucible is much newer. I think this could be priced pretty accurately – I don’t expect this to fall below the set foil price by any means and since the judge foil is pegged at where the set foils are (which finally moved after I pointed out on Twitter that Strike Zone had non-foils for $10 cheaper than foils. Maybe not because I pointed it out, but after I pointed it out.) and the Masterpiece version is bound to be more. Yet it’s hard to see the version going up without demand that rivals or even exceeds something like Wasteland, which is played as a 4-of in a format where Crucible is a 1-of or Scalding Tarn which increased in price despite being pretty expensive to begin with as an expedition. I think $150 is pretty close.

Gauntlet of Power

gauntletofpower

Gauntlet of Power is a $30 set foil, which is more than Chromatic Lantern which makes sense considering how much more Return to Ravnica was printed than Time Spiral. There is not more demand for Gauntlet than there is for Lantern. If we don’t expect Lantern to grow much if at all, we can extrapolate that Gauntlet could have some downside at $50, though not much since it’s bound to go for more than the set foil.

Hangarback Walker

hangarbackwalker

This is $50 because none of the cards are cheaper than $50. This should be cheaper than $50. This is barely played in any format and this price is going to tank. If it holds it’s because every other Masterpiece doubled in price and this article becomes hilarious in hindsight because I got literally every call wrong. If that’s the case, are you going back through this article in the future after Chromatic Lantern is $300 to write a comment chewing me out for telling you it might not be a great buy at $50 and running across this paragraph? How meta for you. You’ll notice that even though I predicted getting everything wrong, which was write, I got every price wrong, including Hangarback Walker which, again, I think has a lot of downside.

Lightning Greaves 

lightninggreaves

This is probably underpriced. This is a $20 set foil as an uncommon. This is an absolute EDH staple and one of the few Masterpieces beyond Sol Ring for which that is true. If some of the other cards that are played way less often are $50, this has a decent chance of upside since there are so many decks this is waiting to go into compared to the other $50 cards and there will be one Lightning Greaves for every Champion’s Helm. This has real upside and I think if someone cracks this at the LGS and you can get it for $40 you will be happy later.

Lotus Petal

lotuspetal

Sure, this gets used as a 4-of and sure it gets used in Legacy and some in Vintage and those are pimp formats, but at $80 I think the demand for this card is overstated a bit. Legacy players aren’t the only ones who pimp their decks out. I think $80 is high. Then again, Breeding Pool is $80 right now and that started at $100.

I am at the halfway point of the list and if I keep going, this article is going to turn into a monstrosity. We have some time until Kaladesh comes out so I think I will write the rest of this up later and release it on Monday of next week. If some of the prices start to move, that will help us write the second half with more data and a better frame of reference. If anything I said in the first half pans out, even better. Thanks for reading Part 1 of my Masterpiece Masterpiece. Until next week!

 

 

 

Rashmi, Captain of Tides

It seems like every set gives me a card I’m so excited about I can’t even.

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The Gitrog Monster was a big deal because every set wasn’t supposed to get a amazing EDH card but now every set has one and it’s starting to get a little ridiculous. How many Sultai, Golgari and Simic generals can they force us to build? Why can’t they make a good Boros general that doesn’t force you to attack or durdle around with dwarves and cars and crap like that?

That was probably harsh – I have no idea whether Depala will be good or bad.

I am inclined to say this could be OK, especially since she triggers when she crews something and she’s big enough to crew Skysovereign on her own and Skysovereign is the only vehicle worth even pretending to care about at this point IMO.

Depala may seem durdly, but let’s not pretend people won’t build Dwarves and Cars as a deck in EDH as soon as the whole set is out. It doesn’t have to be good, you just have to come up with enough dwarves and cars to fill out a 99 card deck. I hate having to type cars, honestly. I hate that there are stupid cars in this set. I see people online calling Kaladesh their favorite set of all time. They’ve spoiled like 15 cards and 4 of them are cars. Here’s the crazy part – I like the Inventor’s Fair story a lot and I think it’s flavorful and cool and why not have one plane with advanced technology considering there are so many potential planes of existence, some that are only 100 or so years behind reality like in the case of Innistrad. I get all of that. Still, whenever I remember that there are cars driving around I’m like

Image result for y tho meme

Even though I was totally cool with the Weatherlight in 1996, I’m super upset about cars right now. Go figure.

I don’t like much stuff because it allows me to focus on the stuff I do like and I think I’ll do that for the rest of this article because there is stuff I like. That stuff includes a creature they spoiled around the same time as the durdly dwarf skypilot. Her name is Rashmi and she is going to spike prices like it’s a keyword ability. Behold.

BOOM. This is an elf because why not? This draws extra cards, cheats stuff into play and in general gives you a huge advantage. The ways you leverage this advantage are going to be factors moving forward. I think this creature is this set’s Leovold (already, right?) and the cards affected are myriad. Here’s what I see mattering.

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Interest in Scroll Rack has cooled off. It never really materialized as a Miracle enabler in Legacy (same as Personal Tutor, which fell off a cliff) but EDH demand and new scarcity meant the new price was pretty sticky. Scoll Rack’s Commander’s Arsenal printing didn’t really do much for the price or add that many copies. Scroll Rack is basically the best way to get advantage out of Rashmi, allowing you to put back stuff you drew and set up your free spells. I don’t know how much money you can make with a buy-in this high, but if you want these and have been waiting, I wouldn’t wait much longer. This commander is going to push this card up and that’s basically all there is to it. Remember Anvil of Bogaradan and Teferi’s Puzzle Box? There’s less money to be made here, but we are looking at a second spike and I keep telling you that matters. This card is going to move.

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Eternal Masters helped the price of top but I think this new demand is going to un-help. I expect top to be back where it was before Eternal Masters based on the new demand. Eternal Masters never really introduced enough copies to curb demand to begin with so the price was always going to go back up. Maybe top had some more declining to do. We’ll never know because Rashmi is likely to push it back up. Whatever it’s at now, like $20, that’s the floor. I don’t think it keep declining in the face of new demand. If it keeps declining, wait until it recovers to buy in, but I feel like this is a signal to watch the price very closely. Eternal Masters is basically forgotten at this point so new copies will be introduced very, very slowly and I think the market is going to soak them very quickly with extra demand left over to push prices. This is another card to watch closely.

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This narrowly avoided inclusion on the Reserved List so there’s technically nothing stopping them from reprinting this, beyond inclination. I think they are quite disinclined to reprint this and this plucky rare that was less splashy than Recycle and Sarcomancy back in the day has really come into its own and gotten there in price. I’m suggesting a lot of cards with $20+ buy-ins but I think this is the reality. Rashmi is going to disproportionately affect cards that synergize well with it and I’m going to mention those first. Are you interested in Guile? Grab one before they go up another $10 in the next year or two.

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Sometimes people are really bad at this. The goofy 93/94 format temporarily spiked the Legends version of this card and that triggered people who don’t pay attention to run out and buy the other versions. That price spike has gone away, but a recent spike will only bode well for another predicated on real demand. Every Rashmi deck will want a Library if the builder can afford it and I think real demand will have a more permanent effect on price than pretend demand based on not understanding why a certain printing was going up.

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This had to recover from its Commander 2013 reprinting sometime, so why not today? New demand is going to push this up from its current level. Check out buylist price creeping up at the edge of the graph, there. This card was poised to move regardless and this won’t hurt at all.

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This price is stupid and we all know it. It was bought out when Prophet of Kruphix was banned and some people are jamming it in that slot as if it isn’t less than half as good as Prophet. Unfortunately the price seems like it’s sticking and Rashmi certainly won’t help. I think we’re stuck with $20+ Muse.

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This price didn’t stick. People didn’t like Awakening in that slot quite as much as they liked Prophet. Unfortunately, that second spike could see up paying $6-$8 for Awakening forever. It’s not as good but people who build the deck won’t care.

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This is a card you might be able to make some money on. The ceiling is likely the $15 this card pretended it could sell for at one point. The steady increase in price as we pile on years between now and 2011 could make us money even if an increase in demand doesn’t, but I like my odds of beating this current price increase curve. Dealer interest is cooling off right now, but I don’t expect that to continue after Rashmi starts lighting people up.

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There is some money potentially to be found here. This is a great way to make sure you get something good with a Rashmi trigger. Just be sure this isn’t the first spell you cast that turn unless you’re trying to draw it.

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This is a great way to impart flash to your expensive creatures and get triggers on their turn. This spiked a long time ago because of that blue moon deck and has been flat since. New demand coupled with the copies being concentrated in the hands of dealers which is what so often happens when a card spikes out of nowhere and can’t sustain any of the demand that people pretended was there should see a pretty healthy climb if Rashmi is as popular as I imagine.

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Finally, a card you might be able to make some money off of. I think there are way too many copies of this card for the excess to be soaked up by some demand from Rashmi and that’s too bad because Yeva is a match made in heaven with Rashmi.

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The $2 foil has some more upside, though and I think dealers were already looking at increasing their holdings in it. I think there is probably a decent shot at some growth here although I’m not sure you’d want this to be the only foil in the deck. EDH demand for foils is a tricky thing to predict but this is promising.

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This is too recent and too underplayed elsewhere to really catch on but I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that this is amazing in a Rashmi deck.

I am sure this list is going to grow as more people start brewing with Rashmi. EDHREC isn’t populated right now because no one is really registering their decks on tappedout and the like, but when they do, we’ll have some analytical data to back up our picks with. As it is right now, I’m trying to cobble together a pick list based on a few scattered lists in discussion forums and it’s going… OK. In a few weeks we’ll know a lot more and the best part about EDH speculation is that we’ve got weeks. There are no weekend spikes, cancelled orders and there’s no need to be glued to coverage. We have time so let’s use it.

Hot $#&@ in a Champagne Glass

the_monarch_is_delicious_by_blufionex

It’s good to be The Monarch.

This is especially true if you can stay The Monarch. Having a painless Phyrexian Arena is a good way to bury them in card advantage and that’s exactly what you get for becoming and staying The Monarch. There are several cards in every color that can make you The Monarch, but the article today is going to focus on Mardu colors because I want to talk about Queen Marchesa and all of the cards about to go up in price because of her. I mean, or not. Maybe nothing gets enough play to go up. Still, this article series isn’t predicated on popular generals NOT being able to spike prices and this would be a boring series if I talked about cards after they already went up. I mean, it would be boring to me. I bet a lot of people would love being told what they already know by someone who barely knows more about finance than they do. But that’s not me, so I guess we’re stuck trying to predict the future.

Queen Marchesa could potentially be as popular a commander as the other Marchesa and if that is the case, a lot of cards have upside. A lot of them are new because obviously cards in the same set that synergize with her and her Monarchistic strategies will have some upside (probably not enough) but we can also look at some older stuff that is bound to get a second look.

Broadly, we can mention a few cards that will get played roughly as much as Marchesa and could become non-bulk in foil accordingly.  Knights of the Black Rose, Marchesa’s Decree, Thorn of the Black Rose and Garrulous Sycophant all seem like prime foil targets. I’d trade for them rather than buy in for cash, personally. Marchesa’s Decree feels like the only card in the bunch liable to get played outside of a Marchesa deck, although it’s kind of hard to predict how popular cards that introduce The Monarch token to the game are going to be. Making you The Monarch doesn’t just take the token away from someone, it also can literally introduce the token to the game if it wasn’t there before meaning even a terrible 2/2 for 4 suddenly invents a Phyrexian Arena to fight over. It’s hard to say how important that will be, but for cards that also do something worthwhile like Regal Behemoth, I suspect there is real upside there.

Custodi Lich is a card I am very excited about. I think its effect is brutal and combining it with cards like Deadeye Navigator, Eldrazi Displacer and Kaya will make it pretty miserable to be your opponents. Blinking Lich every time you lose control of the Monarch token keeping them from drawing and making them sac their board is oppressive and lich is very exciting as a card. I think it will go up from bulk as people discover its power and as other cards return to a normal value and a lower total set price becomes enforced by cheap packs at Target.

Skyline Despot is another sweet card. Red decks struggle with card advantage and being able to draw an extra card by being aggressive and keeping the Monarch token is legit. Being rewarded with dragons for being the only aggressive player at a table full of turtles is even better. This card has real upside. Not Scourge of the Throne upside, but upside.

We have covered various ways other than summoning your commander to become The Monarch, but how do you stay The Monarch?

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No Mercy is a card I really like a lot. It’s decently reprint able, especially in EDH precons, but it’s old, in low supply and brutal. If they have to hit you to become The Monarch (or deprive you of that card draw) this card is going to make sure they have to keep churning out creatures to do it with. It doesn’t exactly keep you from getting hit but it is a deterrent and is useful against annoying unblockable creatures, creatures with shroud or hexproof and annoying crap like Thada Adel.

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In a similar vein, I have been big on Dread for a long time. It’s a No Mercy with feet and what big feet they are. This has upside moving forward for sure and while it is probably reprintable to an extent, I think WotC’s priorities are elsewhere like printing Avatar of Woe for a 7th time. Dread is a solid reanimation target and all-around decent creature for beating faces. This will punish them for taking your Monarch status away and can also hit them and take it back. He works when tapped which means there isn’t much reason not to serve with him. Dread is good and if you look at Vigor’s price, you can get an idea of the kind of money he could command (and with fewer printings, to boot, increasing his upside by comparison).

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Norn’s Annex is going to be very tough to reprint. The Phyrexian Mana symbols are unlikely to make a comeback anytime soon and if they do return to that plane, it’s not even all that likely that they reprint this card. Its’s not impossible to just jam this in a Commander recon, nothing is impossible, but it is clunky. We have seen uncommon from New Pyrexia go for quite a bit so we know that the rares have a decently high ceiling. This doesn’t get the Modern play Ghostly Prison does (used to?) so that isn’t a good comparison, but Annex is certainly going to be worth more money later than it is now and Queen Marchesa is as good an impetus as anything else.

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Ghostly Prison is down but not out. I think that moving forward, it’s going to move up a lot more slowly than people think. Its high price and high Modern demand was predicated on it shutting down Twin decks, something that we don’t have to worry about anymore. I think these are a buy when they crater due to high supply, but these will never approach the price they were at before.

There isn’t much precedent for what is happening with Ghostly Prison. We had a card with lowish supply spike because of its use in multiple formats including EDH but punctuated by a sudden spike in demand due to its adoption as tech against the prevailing deck in Modern. When that deck went away, the price went down a bit, but mostly we had dealers using EDH demand as a justification for not lowering their prices too much. Why race to the bottom? The cards should sell eventually so why take a loss on a card that used to buylist for $10 when you can wait and sell them for a little more than you paid for them? In my set review I called what’s going on a sort of “Emperor’s New Clothes” scenario where everyone was playing along with the price but a reprint came along which threatened to expose that we had a sticky price that was predicated on circumstances that didn’t apply anymore. The price is going to tank harder than anyone expects and be slower to recover than anyone expects. I like Ghostly Prison as a slow-growth card that is very useful in EDH and I am going to scoop as many as I can when the price stabilizes, but for now, be cautious. No one really admitted what the card was worth before and no one is really taking any of that into account right now.

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Crawlspace was affected by  reprinting in a Commander recon (2013) and that tanked its price to $2 which is an attractive place to buy in. Crawlspace is very good at funneling “wide” decks into less effective ones, especially if you have a 1/1 deathtouch creature ready to block. This can keep you The Monarch but it can also keep other decks off of your back and make it harder to kill you. Voltron decks aren’t deterred, but you have other weapons against those decks. I like where Crawlspace is at price-wise and I think it has upside.

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Finally, I really like Assemble the Legion right now. It’s sort of reprint able, and that will hurt, but it’s also super strong and bound to get there moving forward. It wins games unchecked and is exactly the kind of card you want for a Mardu deck where you’re trying to attack people. This fits in with melee decks as well and that means you could see some upside if anyone decides to build Ariana, Captain of the Guard (they won’t). This card is savage and it’s too cheap. I want every copy of this.

That’s what I have to say about the upside Marchesa will be giving to various cards. Next week we may have some tasty Kaladesh spoilers to delve into, or maybe I will take a look at some other legendary creatures in Conspiracy. Who knows? All I can say for sure is that you’re doing it right by continuing to read my brain vomit week after week and I thank you.