Category Archives: Jason Alt

Whatchu’ Be Knowing ‘Bout a Wedge?

Speculation is sometimes indistinguishable from guessing. We don’t know exactly what’s going to happen so we try to make educated guesses based on data and go from there and it usually pays dividends. Other times, we get a hot tip and have enough time to act before everyone else and we get paid out. Other times, we think we’re on to something and end up writing a bunch of articles about the two-color decks in Commander 2016 because we take what MaRo says a little too seriously sometimes. What are the alternatives? Buying re-actively? That doesn’t work in our favor. When someone else makes a card spike or we are behind the curve and some new event changes prices, all we do by buying at that point is enrich someone else and run the risk of holding copies we can’t move.

Since we’re never going to benefit by buying re-actively (seriously, stay away from spikes like this) we need to buy pro-actively. For reference, this is not a $5 card. This already spiked once when they first released Laboratory Maniac. It’s been 5 years since then. The card has gone back down and hasn’t done dick since, yet the internet is full of people saying “ZOMG IT COMBOZ WITH LABRATORY MANNIAC” and buying copies. Since this is a second spike, it’s going to be harder than the first time but ultimately, unless this is predicated on a leaked card from Commander 2016 that only certain people got a sneak peak at, this isn’t going to do anything. Yes, it is good in Zedruu. It was just as good in Zedruu last week when it was a dollar. Stop being a goddamn sheep.

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So since it’s easy to identify cards that are a bad buy because you’d be buying re-actively and not pro-actively, what are some cards we should look at while we still have time?

I am going to take a second crack at the whole “What does the color wheel tell us about what could be in Commander 2016?”

This Time Will Be Different

Look, I was super wrong about Commander 2016 being two-color decks and that’s hilarious. A few people said “Why are you doing this so early?” and I always responded “It’s never too early” and I guess I was right because it looks like those articles helped you get a jump on Commander 2017.  Now that we know that Commander 2016 is going to be four-color decks, what can the wiki articles tell us?

There isn’t one. Uh oh.

How do we figure out what these four-color wedges even do? It’s almost easier to talk about what they don’t do because they’re basically everything but missing one color. So maybe the WUBR wedge is good at everything except mana ramp, fat creatures and regrowth effects? That’s stupid and unhelpful.

Could we try and combine a bunch of the Shards of Alara or Khans of Tarkir wedges? Again, I don’t think so. Is the WUBR wedge really good at artifacts, powering creatures with instants, attacking with warriors, etc? There has to be a way we can glean something. Without any guidance from the color wheel or previous wedges and with the whole “eliminate one color and remove the things it does well” prospect being almost as unhelpful as saying “the new cards can do anything.” I’m not about that life, so I’m going to suggest something pretty unorthodox. I’m going to look at the one four-color wiki we do have.

This one right here.

“You’re Insane”

Maybe? But maybe, just maybe, we’ll hit on something that looks strong, actionable and makes logical sense. After all, the people designing this set probably felt as clueless and overwhelmed when they first started trying to construct this set, right? They had just as little to go on as we do, and while they had a lot of smart people at WotC to bounce their ideas off of, including the people who initially designed the game and made the color wheel what it is today, I think we can take a crack at it. Besides, the color wheel basically was what it was when they first printed Nephilim, right? Granted, both sets of three-color wedges came after Ravnica, but I think that didn’t change that much. I think looking at each Nephilim and its abilities should tell us something. 

Yore-Tiller

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We’re not off to a good start. Like, at all.

I kind of tend to doubt the new commander will be exactly like this. But what can we glean that can teach us what it might be like? Putting stuff into play feels white and black, giving it haste feels red, what does blue have to do with any of this? The only thing about this that feels blue is paying four mana for a 2/2 creature.

Still, a lot of people seem to think the Nephilim will be in the deck, so the deck will likely be set up to benefit from having it in there, otherwise what’s the point?

So I looked at like a dozen decks that use this card (house rules) as their commander and basically all they agree on is Ashen Rider and Snapcaster Mage, 50% of which I agree with. If you’re going to play blue, play Snapcaster at all times, clearly. Buying him back gives you additional value, but getting him back with Yore-Tiller feels underwhelming since he’s so small. I like other cards with that effect. Here are some cards that could get a second look specifically in a deck that does things like Yore-Tiller is doing and is set up to benefit from having Yore-Tiller in the deck.

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This has decent reprint risk and will never be above bulk if it’s reprinted, but if it isn’t, I think we have a winner. I like Diluvian Primordial, also, but milling people with this guy could be killer. No one wants to try and cast this beast of card because it would be pretty tough to try, but if we’re reanimating him, suddenly he looks manageable. He could be Diluvian Primordial number 2 in a deck that doesn’t like to summon stuff.

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This card is sure taking its time, huh? Goody, more time for me to trade for these. I’m not going hard because of the reprint risk, but I think this is a great card and I like it a lot in EDH and it would be killer in a reanimator deck.

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You want a big, fat yard? Since there aren’t as many reanimator decks that use blue compared to other color combinations, this is a relatively-overlooked card, used more often to mill you out so you can win with Laboratory Maniac. Still, if you have blue in your reanimator deck, like I expect the WUBR deck to be (at least as a subtheme) this is a good enabler. At mythic it has a little more upside than rares in Innistrad played the same amount and if this gets a nudge, we could see the price go up to remind us that it’s been 5 years since Innistrad was out. That’s a long time for a mythic that has seen play in combo decks.

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This little guy sure is creeping up, isn’t he? Don’t expect that to stop. I think this has relatively-low reprint risk coupled with a strong ability coupled with some potential upside from a Yore-Tiller type of deck. I think this is a pretty strong card, and at a $3-$5 buy-in, it’s going to be pretty hard to get soaked on this one. I think you just watch this creep up and sweat a reprint a bit, but not too much. This is a low priority reprint in terms of price and there aren’t too many things that they will do that will want this ability in the deck with it. I think you can wait to make sure this isn’t in the deck and then move in, but it pays to pay attention to this card.

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So apparently this effect is basically mono-black and the other colors in Yore-Tiller are along for the ride? I think this has decent reprint risk in a world where it’s not on the reserved list, which means that people might stumble across it when trying to tune their precon and be forced to buy this since it can’t be reprinted which could give it upside. The card is basically stagnant right now, and with white and blue letting you blink the the creature and therefore keep it, you could get quite a bit of value from something. Corpse Dance a Snapcaster, blink it, keep it. Cast a ton of spells, find a way to kill Snapcaster or target something else. I like this card and being on the RL means it’s only going to climb if it gets more play. It’s severely underplayed now, appearing in just 312 decks on EDHREC, but it’s not currently played in decks that are equipped to blink the creature and keep it, and this unique color combination is a game-changer for this particular card.

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Maybe not. But maybe. Saccing the creatures isn’t much of an impediment if you can keep getting them back, and getting multiple attacks with Yore-Tiller can give you enough dudes to keep swinging for a long time. This is an old bulk rare that is about to get a second look, provided it doesn’t also get a second printing.

Glint-Eye Nephilim

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I think it’s more obvious what kind of deck could be built with this combination. If you’re looking at “on-hit” triggers, it makes sense that we could be dealing with giving creatures unblockability, shadow, etc. UB and UG have both done this sort of thing and perhaps and enchantment could grant all of your creatures the same ability Glint-Eye has or something crazy like that. If that sounds too good, remember it would likely cost UBRG, so maybe it wouldn’t be too good after all.

Not only is it easier to see how they would construct a deck that vibed with what this card is up to, it’s pretty easy to see which cards would be good with that deck and aren’t super likely to be in the precon.

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Cards like this make me wish I’d given a crap about EDH earlier. This is going to keep going up until they reprint it. I used to get these in bulk, but those days are long gone. This is EDH gold and players know it.

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Even if this isn’t the exact card we want, we’re on to something, here.

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I don’t know if this card is quite the one we’re looking for, but here’s hoping this gets reprinted in something soon. This card is too expensive for what it is. Planechase stuff sure is pricey sometimes!

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This is a card that does a lot of work in a deck like this. Skipped over for a reprint in the Golgari Commander 2015 deck, I don’t know if it’s more likely to be in the Commander 2016 decks. This probably just goes up another few bucks when it’s not reprinted for at least another year. Although, Conspiracy is an OK place to jam this, so it might get a printing this year after all. Still, if the UBRG deck is anything like the Nephilim it’s colored like, this card will do work.

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This is a card that does a lot of work if we’re trying to load up on unblockable dudes and hit them. The FTV foil is terrible but the printing brought the Portal, Three Kingdoms version down to like 13 bucks.

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I can explain this card being under $5 by pointing out this was in a Planechase deck. I can’t explain the foil only being $6. That makes no sense to me. The multiplier shouldn’t be below 2x on a card this good in EDH. If you’re hitting them unblockably with big creatures, this is dumb. Its price is the only thing more dumb. Sure, you’ll want a ton of swords like Vengeance, Body and Mind and War and Peace, but, come on. Quietus Spike is so good in EDH. Here’s hoping the prevalence of lifegain coupled with the new trend toward sneaky combat makes this quietus spike in price.

I should have said up front this would be a two-parter. These almost always are when we need to cover 5 different wedges. Join me next week and use the comment section to express your gratitude for me not turning this into a five-parter, something I feel I would have been justified in doing. Until next time!

Once a Cheater, Always a Cheater

Go read my article from last week if you haven’t already. I’ll wait.

Also, what manner of lunatic are you? I realize that we’re getting new readers all the time, I guess, but what are the odds that the very first article of mine you’d ever read is the second part of a two-parter unless you’re wearing your underpants on your head right now. If you read it last week and could use a refresher, I linked it above. I couldn’t make it easier for you. Actually, yes I could – I’m linking it again so you don’t even have to move your mouse up. I’m assuming you read by dragging your cursor along so you know which word to read next. I mean, not YOU, you’re cool. But someone reading this. Probably.

Why is it so important to re-familiarize yourself with the piece from last week? Well, it wasn’t the cleanest of breaks, frankly. Sometimes when I do a multi-part series, I have a plan going in. Maybe an outline written on paper, telling me which points to make in which sections. Maybe colored tabs for organization. Other times I start writing and eventually I figure out the topic I want to write about only sometimes I run out of space and I hit my word count without necessarily making all of the points I wanted to make. I talked about having two theses last week and I feel like I covered the first thesis pretty well. Pretty well. I don’t think that anymore, though. The benefit of reading your comments and tweets and the intervening week has made me realize I have basically two choices at this point.

What happnened was I discussed my first thesis – people will build new 4-color decks. That’s a good thesis. Come on, I can say that. That’s no like an ego thing – that’s a legitimately good thesis because like all good theses, it’s built upon a very obvious point. Of course people will do that. The second thesis, if you couldn’t guess, is that people will use the sweet new 4-color goodies and build 5-color decks. The second thesis was likely to take an entire article because I wanted to talk about all of the ways people were going to cheat stuff into play with five-color decks. Are you starting to see the problem?

I left a bunch of stuff out of the last article. Some of that was for obvious reasons – it wasn’t appropriate for the first thesis but was for the second. Why write about Fist of Suns last week when it can’t go in a four-color deck? Also, I plan to write about Fist of Suns later so when I do, act surprised. Seriously. I’ll know if you don’t. What, are you too good for a little whimsy in your life? If I can act surprised after getting up to go to the bathroom in the middle of the new Star Wars movie and overhearing some dude in a nacho cheese-stained homemade Jedi robe talking about how Han Solo “HAD TO be the one who got killed” and then go back to my seat to watch the rest of the movie with a pretty huge plot twist spoiled for me, you can act surprised when I talk about Fist of Suns later. And if I just spoiled Star Wars for you, that movie came out 6 months ago, what were you waiting for? For George Lucas to release a special edition where Han shoots at Kylo Ren first? Act surprised when you see the movie you were clearly dying to see because that’s how it happened to me.

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So basically I feel like I needed an article-and-a-half for the first thesis and like, half an article for the second one.  Basically, how about we just mention the second thesis and then just talk about all of the cards I think could have upside, including stuff that could go in a five-color deck first and then just gradually listing stuff that could easily have gone in last week’s article if I’d had room? Just kidding, I’m going to do it anyway because this is my article.

Thesis the Second – Fist of Suns

People are going to use good four-color spells and creatures and mana fixing and they’re going to build five-color decks with them. And why not? They can mix and match the new decks and use any card from any of them. Now, could they have done that before, like when Commander 2014 came out? Could they have added a Scrap Mastery and a Containment Priest and a Cyclonic Rift and a Song of the Dryads and a  the black deck was terrible? Sure, but when there is an actual impetus to do something like I feel like Commander 2016 is going to present, people will do it to a much larger extent and that’s important going forward. I think with new mana fixing possible, new spells that are going to be powerful because how else do you justify making them so hard to cast and as many as 15 new four-color legendary creatures, any one of whom could pair very nicely with a commander like Child of Alara or Progenitus, we’re bound to see new 5-color decks in a big way. There are a lot of cards that specifically pair with 5-color decks but not 4-color ones.

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Remember this card? No, not from earlier in the article, I mean from 2014. Remember Travis Woo put this in a terrible deck and then someone on coverage said “OMG SOMEWUN IZ 5-0 with teh best deck everz” despite that person having 3 byes and then every dipshit PTQ grinder bought a playset and then those same people complained about how speculators are ruining Magic when the price went up? Remember that? This card is good enough to cheat Emrakul into play in Modern, it’s good enough to cheat… well, not Emrakul, but something either big or hard to cast in EDH out. If you’re playing 5 colors and you have anything big or hard to cast, this is your guy.

Since we had an initial spike, the copies are concentrated in the hands of dealers. We always talk about how second spikes are harder. If this gets any additional play, people are going to have to buy at retail because their LGS and friends’ binders are stripped because this card flirted with $20 briefly. Always pay extra attention to cards that spiked once already. Extra attention is going to drive his up sharply.

Fist pairs nicely with this other card.

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This card doesn’t cheat per se but I did run a playset of these back in the day in a mono-black deck that ran four copies of Last Stand. That was a fun deck. I found that deck and its 4 copies of Crystal Quarry and four copies of Cabal Coffers in an old deckbox at my parents’ house not too long ago. Finance genius.

This card is pretty flat so I feel like more 5-color decks could give it a boost. At the very least it’s worth knowing about. I feel like this gets reprinted if they do a 5-color EDH deck, but we’ll know about that before we know what’s in it, giving us time to sell if we need to. I like this as a pickup.

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This is a nice, steady gainer and has real upside long-term. The reprint prospects are fairly limited and that is perhaps the best thing this has going for it. Cascade is a very good way to cheat, especially with a passive trigger that will let you benefit from every spell you play. Notice it says “Each Turn” meaning you can really get a lot of advantage the more players are at the table. This is a high buy-in but this could easily be a $20 card with a little more adoption and this is likely to get just that.

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This is a little easier to reprint than Maelstrom Nexus but, don’t worry, they didn’t do it in FTV Angels. This has upside from being an Angel and from being a sweet 5-color deck card that lets you cheat your ass off when you hit them with it. This would be more expensive if it were legendary, but we can’t always get what we want. This has plateaued so it’s unlikely to move in the next 12 months without some help, but I feel like this only needs a little nudge to get moving. If you think you’re going to build 5 colors, you want this.

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I feel like this is the first half of a U-shaped graph that will cause some people to say in a few years “When was that ever $1?” Well, it’s $1 right now and it’s likely to be more, later. This card is good in multiple formats and when it’s gone from Standard, I think it has some upside. It’s certainly very good in decks that are four or five colors and that’s kind of the point of the article. Get these as throw-ins to shore up trades and make a big stack in a box, forget about them and then be glad later. Turn a pile of other bulk rares that won’t go up later into these on PucaTrade. Burn a big pile of them. All are legitimate strategies.

Do you see what I mean about there not really being enough 5-color-specific cards to really necessitate its own article? I can go back over the stuff that works in either four or five-color decks that I missed and which bears discussing.

Thesis the Third – There Are Cards I Missed Last Week

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Every now and then I get a little bit worried that the price is going down. Every now and then I get a little bit tired of losing to this in EDH games. Every now and then I get a little bit nervous that the best of this card’s years have gone by. Every now and then I get a little bit terrified when I look at this card’s declining price.  I think it will turn around. There’s nothing I can do – I like Defense of the Heart.

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Someone (And in under 5 minutes I could get on twitter and scroll back a few days and check but I’m not super inclined, sorry, whoever!) asked about this card on Twitter. I think it’s really cheap for what it does, but I also think that if you’re going to devote a whole card to this effect, it should do more. How many multicolored cards have that much colorless in them that this feels like cheating? It certainly helps us ramp a bit, or buys us one free trip out of the Command Zone, I guess. Four-color decks could use this, theoretically, but five color decks could have all along and aren’t. I never thought this would be cheaper than cards like Tsabo’s Web or Teferi’s Response (Sold out on SCG) but that’s the world we live in.

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It’s goofy to see this card on the decline. This was considered a staple at the advent of EDH and its popularity is seriously waning. I think there’s decent risk of a reprint in Commander 2016 but I think more people focusing on multicolored decks that have hard-to-cast creatures should give this a second look. This reminds me of Duplicant in that its usage has really waned compared with how ubiquitous it was at the beginning of EDH as a format, and the recent Duplicant reprinting shows that WotC may be printing based on an outdated paradigm (Duplicant shows up in only 3,000 decks on EDHREC despite being colorless removal and a body) which means they could reprint Arch in a precon. I’m calling this high reprint risk, but so few people seem to care that I doubt the price spikes if they announce the lists and it’s not in it. Risk seems moderate but with a lower upside, moderate may be too much for me. It’s certainly very good, though, so its decline is a bit puzzling. 5 new 4-color decks could be the paradigm shift this needs.

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Legacy was big on this plus Conflux for a hot minute. Remember what I said about watching for a second spike? This could certainly get a second spike based on how good it is in multicolored decks and cheating in those decks. It’s underplayed in EDH but I feel like stupider cards from the same era having hit $20 with basically way less justification. A little nudge makes this $20 practically overnight. It’s a highish buy-in but the spread is so low that it makes me think dealers are waiting for something to happen here, too. In fact, outside of when it was spiking, the spread has never been lower. Watch this card for sure.

Are there more cards? Certainly. If we don’t start to get spoilers soon, I may have to dig a little deeper but then we risk hitting cards that see even less play and therefore have even less potential upside. I have a decent amount of confidence in a lot of these cards unless I said otherwise so these were the ones I deemed worth exploring. Got any other ideas? Hit me up in the comments or on Twitter. I may even remember your name (sorry again) if you do. Until next week, where I’ll be discussing a different thing or maybe not or maybe we’ll have previews. Give me something. A conspiracy spoiler, something from a duel deck, anything. I’m getting antsy in my pantsy. On that note, I bid you all a fond farewell.

Cheating

I spent a lot of time last week thinking about how we were going to build Superfriends decks in the future because our mana is going to be so crazy bonkers with the advent of a bunch of four-color decks that people will be able to be super greedy. While I think it’s true that Superfriends are about to get a bit of a bump, I think it’s also worth taking a lot at other ways players plan to play cards with their wacky new cards. I have a few different theses to cover so I’m going to launch right into it because I want to get all of my thoughts out before I hit my word cap. I mean, it’s a soft word cap. You’re not going to want to read a 4,000 word article, true, but I’m also going to hit like 2,300 words and think “I’m not getting paid any extra for this” and that’s going to sap my enthusiasm in a hurry. So, like I said, I’m not going to waste time – I am going to get right to it and cover what I want to cover. I think you readers are worth it.

Thesis Number the First – People Will Build New 4-color Decks

And why not? They’re going to get new cards that are 4 colors. I have to imagine there will be at least one good creature and one good spell per deck that are 4 colors and if it’s that hard to cast that spell, the effect is going to worth it. Just look at the spells we have now that cost 5 mana – Coalition Victory, Last Stand, Conflux, Maelstrom Nexus – these are good spells. They’re difficult to cast because they require a mana of every color and they’re even more difficult to cast in EDH because we have to have a general with all 5 colors in their identity.

4 color spells are obviously easier to cast than 5 color ones but not all that much easier and, again, you can only play them in a deck where the general has all of those colors in their color identity. How are people going to cast those spells?

They’ll fix their mana

This one seems obvious, but it’s worth mentioning. There are a few ways I think people will try this.

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These would have been better to buy at their historic lows, but now that they’re starting to rebound, it seems fairly obvious that it’s time to get these if you need them. You can fetch these with fetchlands and Farseek and you don’t need to shell out for a Savannah to get basically a Savannah. Sometimes people put ABU duals in EDH decks. Super, go ahead and do that. Or, you know, sell them and build a new deck for basically every dual you sell. I’m not trying to tell you how to live your life, but I will tell you that shocks are going to go up more and people will need them. In a 4-color deck you can play a lot of them. You can play 1 in a 2-color deck, 3 in a 3-color deck, 10 in a 5-color deck and 6 in a 4-color deck. If every new deck that gets built means the builder needs 6 new fetches, they will be closer to $20 than $10 in a year or two if they’re not reprinted. Return to Return to Ravnica doesn’t seem all that close so I think we’re safe for a minute.

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Ditto here. These aren’t at a historical low or high, but I bet this plateau means they’re not going anywhere for a minute. Dealer interest is waning, so I’d wait for these to crater and recover, but EDH demand could give these some upside, although supply is super high right now with everyone having them in their decks and binders, still.

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Them putting these in every deck seems as unlikely to me as them putting them in only some decks. I think this doesn’t get reprinted and I think the price goes up. Conspiracy might be a good venue to print this but I bet they won’t. I bet this card gets ridiculous before it gets reasonable.

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This card has some real upside. It is a creature that is also mostly a Chromatic Lantern and people are starting to notice. With a new focus on mana fixing, this is going to be a player if people remember to use it. This even lets you use utility lands for mana if you have something like Tabernacle (you don’t have a Tabernacle) or Maze of Ith that doesn’t tap for mana.

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This probably won’t get bought more because it’s so expensive, but I bet it gets played more. EDH demand could start to make it disappear from Pucatrade which could signal other markets.

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This are like $2 in other printings. That has to change the farther we get from the last time it was printed.

How else will people play stuff in 4-color decks?

They’ll Cheat

Not at Magic, necessarily, I mean they’ll cheat stuff into play. There are a lot, lot, lot of ways to do this and they all have upside.

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A guy with this in his Legacy deck isn’t going to trade it to an EDH player. He won’t want any of the cards the EDH player has. But some rando busting this in a pack in the LGS might be inclined. The new supply might hurt the price for a while, but if it gets low enough, EDH demand could buoy the price based on people who wrote the card of as unobtainable before now using it. This is a fine way to cheat.

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This has been printed a ton but the price doesn’t seem to want to dip below around $7. This has a decent reprint risk but it also has demonstrated an ability to mostly shrug off reprints. I like this as a pickup.

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Meanwhile I bet this never gets reprinted. This is starting to move up and I bet if more people play it because the new creatures are savage and hard to cast, this could see movement. This is just a solid gainer in my view and it looks like markets and dealers are finally on board with that assessment.

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It would take a lot to drag this above bulk but it is worth remembering this card exists. It’s too good.

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Bet you thought this was still bulk, didn’t you? Well, it’s not. The price has basically doubled in the last year and that’s good for business. This is on its way up and I bet this could hit $5 if it’s not reprinted. And why would it be reprinted?

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I’ve made money off of this card twice and it would please me to do so a third time. With copies concentrated in the hands of dealers, how easy would that be? Very easy, that’s how. Very easy.

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Mirri’s Guile, Sylvan Library and Sensei’s Divining Top are nice pairings with this spicy vintage. Cream of the Crop, too. All of those cards can go in a deck that can have green in it. Mayael, anyone?

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I bought all of the copies I have years ago for $2 each. That’s about as fair as putting something into play with this. Granted it’s not the best way to throw out an Eldrazi, but can you really complain about having a creature that big if you miss a few of its triggers? It That Betrays doesn’t mind getting tossed out EOT with this beauty. This card isn’t even close to being done growing.

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This may do it randomly, but don’t pretend it’s not cheating. This card is rare from an old set and it’s on the Reserved List. If this gets any notice at all it could hit $5 fairly easily and it would be pretty boss to chop into Pucapoints rather than buylist for $3.

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Everyone realized this would be nuts with Narset and the price went up accordingly. However, this is a great way to cheat creatures into play. If you have nothing but fatties and tokens, it’s even better. This is taking a break from climbing, but it will be back at it as soon as something else is printed that is saucy with it and there is only one deck from Commander 2016 that won’t have blue in it meaning you have 4 chances to find something saucy to go with this.

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Modern spiked this card, which sucks because that deck doesn’t play it anymore, the price is really high for an EDH card and the copies are concentrated in the hands of dealers meaning a second spike will be much harder and faster. The only bright spot is that this seems relatively easy to reprint. Just kidding, that’s terrible because everyone who paid $10 for these will eat it in that case. I don’t know when they’re going to reprint this, or even if they will, but this is destined to go beyond $10 just on EDH demand and it’s too much fun to play this card. Dealer confidence is creeping up which means they’re selling copies which means the price shift is organic and predicated on real demand. This bodes well. Graphs that look like this make me want to buy.

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This is on its way back up. The reprinting made the price very reasonable but Modern hasn’t gone as cuckoo for this as they did a few years ago and the new supply did wonders for controlling the price. This is a very easy way to cast a creature with a nutty effect and goofy casting cost and you can even tap tokens to do it. What could be better? This is a fine way to cheat at Magic.

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Legacy and EDH are keeping this card pretty expensive since it’s banned in Modern. Eternal Masters copies are going to make this dirt cheap and if this hits like $2 I recommend investing like $100. It could get reprinted again which will make it take a while before you can recoup your $100. More likely is that it recovers and lands around $5 because it’s so good in EDH. Less likely is that it’s unbanned in Modern and becomes like $15 overnight and then you look like Nostradamndamus. I’m not saying it will happen but I am saying that there are three basic scenarios and in the worst case you still break even eventually.

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This card is very expensive. This card is also tailing down a bit and since it’s demonstrated the ability to be $25, you might want to watch it crash then buy in because it will go back up because how could it not? It’s Tooth and Nail. This is in so many EDH “I win” combos it isn’t funny. No, seriously, have you lost to this card? It isn’t funny. It’s annoying. I cast this entwined to get Kiki-Jiki and Zealous Conscripts on turn 4 one time. It wasn’t funny. I mean, it was to me, but when 4 out of 5 people at a table think something isn’t funny, maybe you’re the one who’s wrong. That’s Comedy 101.

At this point, I’m going to audible and save my second thesis for next week. We still have plenty of time before we start getting any cards previewed so we can look more at how players are going to cheat using the new cards next week. I have plenty to say on the topic and I really don’t want to load this article with too much information. Let’s reconvene next week and look at a second way I expect people to cheat using older cards to help them cast newer cards. It should be a hoot. Until then!

The Legion of Doom

Fade in

Ext. A swamp in an undisclosed location. A dragonfly lands on a leaf and a mutated lizard with two heads grabs it with its tongue and bites it in the midsection, licking one of its eyes with the other tongue.

Int. A dimly-lit lair, dominated by a long conference table with a podium in the center. At the podium stands Lex Luthor. I feel silly even having to have to describe Lex Luthor. He looks Lex Luthory. You know, one of the most famous comic book villains of all time because he’s the only one they put in Superman movies despite there being a ton of powerful Superman villains. General Zod was cool in Superman 2 but in 3, he fought… Richard Pryor? You’re going to tell me a man with heat vision struggled to take down a guy who once accidentally lit himself on fire? And don’t get me started on Superman fighting Duckie from Pretty in Pink plus that weird sun guy they cloned from Superman’s hair. Anyway, be quiet, he’s about to say something. 

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Lex Luthor – We need to formulate a plan for how to handle Commander 2016.

Sinestro- Our mana sucks right now. They need to reprint Chromatic Lantern! I should know, lanterns are kind of my thing.

Lex Luthor – In every deck? I don’t think so.

Black Manta – How else are we supposed to build a mana base that isn’t a million dollars?

Sinestro – I could make every color yellow so that every land adds yellow mana and you can cast all of your yellow spells!

Riddler – What has lame powers and won’t shut up about turning everything yellow?

Sinestro – WHO DARES?! Silence yourself, Nigma, or by Oa I will come over there and

Captain Cold – Turn him yellow?

Lex Luthor – Maybe he’s onto something.  Also, most of you are terrible villains. I wanted to invite just Captain Cold, Brainiac and Bizarro Superman and the rest of you just kind of showed up. Meeting adjourned.

Fade Out

Fade In

Int. Wrestling arena locker room

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First wrestler guy – Are you sure we’re legally distinct enough not to get sued by DC comics or Hanna Barbera or something? I’m nervous about calling ourselves the Legion of Doom

Second wrestler guy – I’m just here because I think people should play Cream of the Crop in more decks.

First wrestler guy – Wait, that wasn’t even us. That was Macho Man Randy Savage

Second wrestler guy – Are you sure?

First wrestler guy – I’m positive. Besides, Cream of the Crop is only good in decks with huge creatures. Are there going to be any of those in a four-color deck?

Fade out

You know what’s really likely to happen when people have to build a four-color deck?

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This junk. It may be time to take a second look at anything that matters in those decks before everyone starts building them. Five new decks with wonky mana bases, new mana fixing cards, strategic reprints and new spells is bound to lead to an uptick in the number of people saying “Screw it, let’s make a goodstuff pile” and for my money, you don’t get many better goodstuff piles than you do when you throw a pile of superfriends into said pile.

What’s New?

Superfriends have gotten a new cycle of helpers and some of them actually matter to superfriends decks and are decent in EDH. Some of them suck.

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This is a pretty small effect for something that’s kind of tricky to trigger and dealing 3 to a creature is likely wasted a lot of the time (but very useful others) but I don’t know if this will get adopted enough to have upside. It’s at its bottom, though, so there’s nowhere to go but up. I see this getting jammed to complete the cycle more than anything.

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This has a very cool secondary ability and could be very solid for keeping your planeswalkers alive more often or sometimes triggering abilities sooner. If you have Doubling Season this is even better. This is also likely at its bottom, price-wise but the real play on this and Chandra’s Oath is to snag cheap foils in case EDH play increases the multiplier. There’s no time to buy foils that haven’t hit yet like when the non-foil is a bulk rare.

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This is a card that isn’t bulk because people can’t decide if they’re OK paying 2U to do a weird Brainstorm thingy. The scry ability on the secondary is going to be great if you have 3 or 4 ‘walkers out and I think this probably is going to dip and will have to get adopted a bit to even hit where it is, now. All of them will have to climb a bit to hit $1.

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This one doesn’t really have as much upside unless it tanks soon, which I doubt. This is a green cantrip. The reason I’m so excited about this in Superfriends is that it’s a second Chromatic Lantern that draws you a card instead of tapping for a mana. The fixes your mana in a very profound way and replaces itself when you play it making it one of the least obtrusive inclusions in a planeswalker deck, ever. Are they going to waste a removal spell on this when you have Doubling Season and The Chain Veil in play? This is so much better than the other ones in a planeswalker deck that the only reason you’d play the others is to have the cycle going.  I say that with a healthy amount of respect for Oath of Jace. This is a card to watch – this could dip, maybe at rotation, but this is going to be a real card in Superfriends decks and doesn’t seem that likely to get reprinted.

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The plateau says everyone has forgotten about Dre. The price was only $1 initially because it was not going to have any impact on Standard and the players who wanted them got the 1 copy they needed, leaving a lot of unclaimed copies. The thing is, this card is going to go up over time. The farther we get from this card’s printing, the more cards are going to end up getting forgotten in boxers and binders. If this card spiked hard those copies would come out of the woodwork. We don’t want that. We want as many copies in the woodwork as possible because it makes it easier for our copies to go up in value. This tutors for a Planeswalker provided you’re playing white in your deck. Best of all, the foils are only $2.50. The foils are the play, I think. Still, both of these prices will go up over time and it’s never too early to pick these up in trade and throw them in a box. I feel like this is similar in obviousness to Dictate of Erebos, a card that was a bulk rare when it was in Standard.

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My hundreds of copies are making me very happy and I sold enough at $3 to pay off what I bought so the rest are pure profit. I feel like we’ll see a similar graph for Call the Gatewatch, albeit with a much more gradual slope, I think. Still, Dictate has a lot of other cards like Grave Pact (more expensive) and Butcher of Malakir (much less expensive) that do the exact same thing and Call the Gatewatch really doesn’t. I’m not in for cash on Call, yet, but I’m trading for them aggressively. Seems obvious.

What’s Not New

I think it’s worth checking in to see how my call of “The Chain Veil” is going.

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Hmm. The price hasn’t gone up much and online stock hasn’t gone down a ton. That’s not to say it won’t – I don’t think I’m saying anything controversial by saying EDH and casual both like effects like this. The farther we get from this set’s Standard legality, the more we’ll see this climb. It’s a mythic which means there aren’t as many copies of it as a card like, say, Sliver Hive. Sliver Hive is more likely to get bought as a playset, but I’m confident that The Chain Veil is going up. Are you also confident? Well, you have time to trade into these before anyone signals TCG Player by buying enough copies to trip anyone’s algorithms, so just target these as a throw-in when a trade is off by $1. Also, learn to make it your business to make trades off by $1.

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Everything people said about this card a year ago is still true today, except when they said this would be printed in Commander 2015 to facilitate Experience counters. That didn’t happen and the card has climbed even more since. At a certain point, this is going to be worth reprinting, but until then, pair this with Superfriends and don’t look back. This does everything you want a card to do. The price of this as it rises and the price of the $13 (down from $20+) foil are beginning to converge. This means there is still organic demand for the non-foil and that if the foil comes down, it will sail past the equilibration point. As the non-foil climbs, the higher it gets, the higher the foil multiplier will be, which means the foil price falling will hit a brief window where it’s lower than it should be and is good to be picked up. I don’t know mathematically what that number is but I know what I think those concepts should look like vaguely and shape-wise. I’ll sketch what the hell I’m talking about on a graph.

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The red line is the vague slope of a non-foil that is climbing from organic demand. The blue line is the slope of a foil price that spiked too fast due to hype and is overcorrecting due to falling demand. The green line is vaguely what the foil multiplier should make the price based on organic demand for the non-foil. The better the card, the greater the demand for foil copies so the price should diverge. I think there is money to be made if the foil comes down too much more since the non-foil is still climbing. It’s still a good card. Wotc is still going to print creature tokens and hydras and planeswalkers. What isn’t clear is whether they’re going to reprint Contagion Engine. Commander 2015 was a very good time to do it. Will Commander 2016 be as good a time? We could see a reprinted planeswalker in every deck. We could see Dune-Brood Nephilim in the deck with no white in it. Then again, we could just see them not reprint it and then we’re another year from its standard legality and there will be more cards it interacts with. Hype made this card grow a lot, but that’s not to say merit wasn’t going to do so anyway. We even wrote about Contagion Engine in this series before we knew anything about Commander 2015 so everything we said then should still apply now, only now a lot of copies have been pulled out of the woodwork and are concentrated in the hands of dealers, which means one effect that would dampen the ascension of the card’s price a second time is already taken care of. 3

I think we can take a look at other ways to make our mana better in both Superfriends and also just generic 4-color decks (and 5 color, really – you could combine some of the C16 decks in a Progenitus shell or something) next week, so stay tuned. In the mean time, check out the Eternal Masters spoiler coverage and our discussion forums here on MTG Price. Hit me up in the comments. Until next time!