BRIEF PROGRAMMING NOTE: Today’s edition of Accumulated Knowledge is coming out a day early, so as to give the most time before the Pro Tour. As always, MTGPrice will be updating you over the weekend, so make sure you check in all weekend!
Good morning, and welcome back to Pro Tour Weekend! Hopefully you are reading this before the event starts (or during the first draft), which means you’ll still have plenty of time to get in on some cards. We are gonna get right down to business again, so this paragraph is going to end… now.
Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar: I’m starting to have the feeling that this weekend will be more like “Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir, part 2”. Atarka’s Command, Dragonlord Ojutai, and Den Protector have all had big rebounds, while cards like Deathmist Raptor, Kolaghan’s Command, and Dragonlord Atarka have stayed strong. Dromoka’s Command has sneakily risen back up to above $6 after the Event Deck printing, and remains one of the best cards in the format in terms of versatility. If you still haven’t played with Dromoka’s Command, you’re missing out- it’s an incredible skill-tester that is typically going to be a 4x in lists that play it. Likewise, Atarka’s Command is truly outrageous1 and is THE lynchpin in the red deck du jour.
BRIEF PROGRAMMING NOTE: We are going to break down a bunch of different decks and individual cards from here on out, starting with the ones listed at the top. I just wanted to let you know.
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The Battle for Zendikar is under way, those of you who’ve peaked the fat pack insert already know the outcome, but for the rest of us…we have other concerns.
Expeditions
In case you missed all the Magic financiers jumping from buildings doing their best impression of a 1929 stock broker, Expeditions prices are basically in free fall. We all thought for sure these would be the coolest thing since sliced bread, and they still might be, but there are a lot of snakes that bit off too much and had to regurgitate. What the hell am I talking about?
So picture a snake. This snake normally goes around eating mice and other small vermin. One day this snake comes across your Aunt Marigold’s pet chihuahua “Chuckles” and just can’t help himself. Chuckles is quickly choked out and the snake dislocates it’s jaw to fit that boney little head into its mouth. The snake quickly realizes that it is left in a vulnerable state so it has to just regurgitate it and go back to eating mice and chipmunks.
So what the hell am I talking about? I’m talking about the army of armchair vendors that all decided to cash in on Battle for Zendikar. These guys (and presumably some gals too) preordered BFZ by the case with the prospect of opening infinite moneys and realized once they had a $600-2000 hole in their savings account, they had to recoup some of that money IMMEDIATELY.
So began the race to the bottom. These snakes had a big meal and they just can’t sit around waiting for it to digest to get the most out of Expeditions, so they’re firesaling these cards to recoup as much of their “investment” as they can. Some people just don’t have the nerve to ride it out. Here’s where we’re at now:
In just one short week, Expeditions lands have shed 30% of their value, and in all likelihood this number is probably even lower by the time this article is published. So what about the rest of the set? Are those cards tanking as well?
Results
Obviously the format is still in flux, but the first SCG Open is in the books and the initial posturing has begun. In what appears to be some kind of cosmic irony, Burn took down the tournament despite losing Lightning Strike and Stoke the Flames. What hot BFZ rares and mythics made the cut? A paltry two copies of Cinder Glade.
Now’s the part where I eat crow. Gideon, Ally of Zendikar showed up big this weekend with 24 copies in the top 16. Gideon appears to be the real deal. So – I was wrong. Does this mean that I now think Gideon has a chance of retaining his $40 price tag? Not in the slightest. If you aren’t intending to use Gideon in the comings weeks, it’s probably a good idea to ship ’em.
In other Planeswalker news, there were 0 main deck copies of Ob Nixilis or Kiora in the top 16 this weekend. Which either means these are not cards that anybody is excited about, or they’re all saving them for their super secret Pro Tour brews. I know where I’d place my bets.
The big story of the weekend is manabases. The bulk of the BFZ cards showing up among the top finishers are dual lands of some sort and this little gem. As it turns out, there only thing better than four copies of Siege Rhino is eight copies of Siege Rhino. The exceptional mana available to deck builders in this format allowed some pretty sweet four and five color builds of traditional archetypes. Not only did we get a sweet five color Abzan toolbox deck courtesy of Gerry Thompson, we also get hot tech splashes:
Jeskai splashing black for Crackling Doom and Kolghan’s Command? Sure, why not! Why not throw a Butcher of Malakir in the mix? Going forward, this opens the dance floor to basically any powerful card, regardless of whether or not it’s in the “right” colors.
Other cards that made modest appearances this weekend include:
Drana, Liberator of Malakir
Dragonmaster Outcast
Ruinous Path
Brutal Expulsion
Fathom Feeder
Radiant Flames
None of these seem like great investment targets.
Khans of Tarkir – Fate Reforged
Hey guys, where’s the big spikes? I know we’re not to the Pro Tour yet so it might be too early to declare victory but there’s a distinct lack of $5 Rattleclaw Mystics, $10 Siege Rhinos, $25 Sarkhan Dragonspeakers, and $15 Wingmate Rocs. While it may be more meta related than rotation related, I’m significantly less worried about that guy printing out my terrible article and putting it on every table at the next Grand Prix so that everyone knows what a ****ing idiot I am.
If you check out the daily and weekly movers you’ll see a spattering of Khans/Fate cards on the winners lists. Obviously fetch lands are sweeter than ever with the tango lands, but there is one sweet Mythic showing up in force that’s seeing some growth:
Anafenza has long been one of my favorite picks in Khans of Tarkir; admittedly, I was a much bigger fan when Birthing Pod mirrors were still a thing. Anafenza shuts off a lot of the delve shenanigans we’ve grown accustomed to seeing, stops Deathmist Raptors or Den Protector loops, and even enables Eldrazi processors…if that ever becomes a thing. So far Anafenza is not a universal inclusion in the Abzan aggro decks, but as the meta shakes out, there’s a pretty good chance she finds a place.
The other big winner from Khans of Tarkir appears to be Hardened Scales…wut? Expect this card to go full Obelisk of Urd, fluctuating back and forth between $1 and $5 independent of reason.
Alternate Timelines
In case you didn’t get the memo: Atarka’s Command is not a $4 card. The ability to crank out four landfall triggers in a single turn is more than enough to make this the center piece in a few glass cannon aggro decks. Combine Atarka’s Command with Scythe Leopard, Makindi Sliderunner, and Monastery Swiftspear and you’re looking at massive amounts of damage. Worst case scenario, this becomes the premiere burn spell of the format, typically adding 5+ damage every time it’s cast.
This card has already been showing up in Modern Burn decks, the cat should be fully out of the bag on this one.
If there was any doubt, it should be long gone by now. Den Protector is a format defining staple. Looping Den Protectors is often going to be more than enough to wear down control decks and the ability to walk past Thopter tokens or Gideon’s sidekicks is going to prove extremely valuable in the coming year. Den Protector is currently hovering around $10 and I can easily see this doing a Courser of Kruphix impression, especially during the next six months as we continue to have access to fetch lands – this will be easily splashable in any color deck.
The $80 Gorilla
There’s an $80 Gorilla in the format and his name is Jace. It turns out that the “next Jace” is…well…Jace again. A number of people asked me this weekend whether or not this price is real and whether or not it can stick and I’m still a little amazed that the answer is: yes.
With Battle for Zendikar hitting the streets people are just done with Magic Origins. Normally an $80 card would be enough to entice people to go back and play the lottery game but there’s bigger fish to catch in the form of Expeditions – and they’re a lot shinier as well.
Jace has a lot going for him financially, he’s universally played as a four-of and he’s a Mythic rare from a summer core set that was sandwiched between two of the biggest releases in years: Modern Masters 2015 and Battle for Zendikar. Magic Origins was a pretty solid core set all in all, but just didn’t stand much of a chance to sell that well with people’s wallets hurting after MM2 and people squirreling away money for BFZ.
Beyond the paltry amount of this product opened, there is the reality that Jace is showing up in every format – even Vintage. While it might feel like it’s too late to buy in on Jace at this point, it felt the same way at $20, $30, and $40…yet here we are, staring down the $80 Gorilla in the room. With the likelihood of Magic Origins packs being ripped open in mass quantities now, Jace is likely to climb higher still.
Every plateau in Jace’s price has felt like it couldn’t go higher, but at this point I’m not seeing any compelling reasons for it to go lower outside of a clash pack or event deck reprint, which is unlikely due to him being a double faced card.
Fat Stacks & Fat Packs
There’s a gold rush at your local big box retailer: people are scouring the wilds for BFZ Fat Packs like they’re going out of style. The big two retailers were offering these at a $60 preorder price and we all scoffed, then we found out that Fat Packs are, and have always been, a limited print run; this is just the first time that limit has mattered. Fat Packs are generally part of the “package” the distributors jam down local game stores’ throats along with all those intro packs you see on clearance two weeks after release.
This might be the first time in a long time that snatching up a pile of Fat Packs is a solid investment. Legends of double Expeditions Fat Packs coupled with a stack of full art lands in every box will make these a sought after item for years to come. So grab them if you still can, while it might seem like you missed your chance, there are numerous cases where these things are sitting in the back room waiting for Magic Origins Fat Packs to sell through on the shelf.
Holding Pattern
The Pro Tour is just a few weeks away and most of the rare and Mythic prices will stay relatively inflated until then, but we’re quickly realizing that none of the new duals are four-ofs thanks to fetch lands and there’s not a lot else (yet) to get excited about in the set so prices are going to fall.
“Wizards is really trying to kill speculators huh?”
I woke up last Friday to this message a fellow mtgfinance enthusiast at my LGS . The Battle for Zendikar Event Deck’s list was announced on Thursday 8 a.m. PST (which is around 11 p.m. Malaysian time on Thursday). As I glanced through the decklist, I had a sinking feeling in my stomach. And I was sure as hell it wasn’t because I have yet to ingest my compulsary dose of morning caffeine.
If you have yet to see the decklist, check out Corbin’s (@chosler88) post about the Event Deck for his thoughts on the impact of the reprints.
Here are the notable cards that you’ll be able to find in the value-fest that is the Battle for Zendikar Event Deck:
What!? Since when do Wizards chuck in mythics in Event Decks. Two mythics!?
I was dismayed to see Whisperwood Elemental included in the decklist. I was bullish on Whisperwood Elemental as a mythic with an incredible potential for price growth in the new Standard landscape we are hurtling towards this October. Whisperwood has the making of a breakout card in financial terms. It’s a Standard staple with a track record in aggro and midrange decks. It’s a mythic from a small set. And it was hovering around $6 – $7 for the previous few months, probably as low as a small set Standard staple mythic could go. Whisperwood Elemental could spike to the $15 – $20 range if it becomes the premier green five drop in the Battle for Zendikar Standard, an outcome which I am quite confident about considering Whisperwood’s power level and the new unconditional creature removal being sorcery speed.
It all changed when the Fire Nation attacked Wizards decided that they are going to reprint mythics in Standard supplemental products. Whisperwood is now $5 and I doubt it would be able to hit even $15 anymore. While the influx in supply from the Event Deck is marginal, it does affect the perception regarding the financial potential of the Elemental. I also pity the fool who went in deep on Warden of the First Tree.
The most recent supplementary product designed for Standard, the Magic Origins Clash Pack, packed a little more value than usual with Standard and Modern staples like Windswept Heath, Collected Company and Siege Rhino, and Standard and Modern playables like Dromoka’s Command and Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit. But it was not too much of a surprise as high value rares like Hero’s Downfall and Thragtusk had seen reprint in these products. The inclusion of a fetchland was also not novel. Verdant Catacombs was in the Magic 2012 Event Deck.
Why Spec on Standard Mythics?
In the era where rare is the new uncommon, playable but homeless Standard mythics makes for better short-term spec targets compared to rare as mythics offer a significantly better multiplier at only a slightly increased cost.
Take Perilous Vault for example. The Magic 2015 mythic dropped all the way to $3 in September 2014, right before Khans of Tarkir rotated in. The colorless nuke found a home when Blue-Black Control made its debut at Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir in October and subsequently tripled in price to $10. It’s not a majestic spike, but 300% growth within a month or two is decent return for a $3 investment.
Sometimes you don’t even need to wait for rotation to happen, as with the case of See the Unwritten, a card which fellow MTGPrice writer, James Chillcott (@MTGCritic) and I have been bullish about. It recently spike from $3 to $8 (about time!) on the anticipation that it would be used to cheat in Eldrazi et al.
Now that Wizards is encroaching into mythic territory for cards deemed fit to be reprinted in Event Deck/Clash Pack products (they alternate each product between sets), the notion that playable Standard mythics at rock bottom are relatively low risk short-term specs no longer hold true. With mythics are no longer immune to an Event Deck/Clash Pack reprint, buying into future Perilous Vaults and See the Unwritten just got a lot riskier.
Walking the Speculation Planes
Ultimately Wizards’ priority is to ensure that competitive staples are sufficiently accessible to keep the competitive scene as inclusive as possible (plus it sells products). As a competitive player, I do welcome that move as it means that I would be able to secure my playset of Hangarback Walkerat a reasonable price after missing the boat on that one.
As a financier, Wizards’ increasingly trigger happy inclination to reprint and repress price of staples forces me to reconsider my approach to short-term Standard mythic specs.
The risk with Event Decks/Clash Packs reprints resides in the fact that it is hard to predict when, or rather which Event Deck/Clash Pack would reprint which mythic. There is a class of Standard mythics that follow a more predictable reprinting.
Standard planeswalkers reprints are reserved for the spring Duel Deck, which means that they still make relatively safe short-term/rotation spec. Playable planeswalkers at rock bottom often spike come rotation, along the lines of Xenagos, the Reveler and Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver during the previous rotation.
The announcement for next spring’s Duel Deck comes late October or early November, so make sure you cash out of any short-term. planeswalker spec by then.
Siege Rhino is still in Standard and who better to accompany a crash of rhinos than Sorin, Solem Visitor, who is just $8 now. Now that Stormbreath Dragon is a myth of Standard past, it may be time for Sarkhan, the Dragonspeakerto soar the skies for good as the premier sticky red five drop. Oh also, did I mentioned that now your opponent can’t kill your Sarkhan with his Form of the Dragon on the stack?
The Upside
Wizards’ increasingly trigger happy reprint policy is not all doom-and-gloom for financiers. Even if you do not grind Standard, there is a positive note to the phenomenon. Granted, the biggest casualty is the increased risk in short-term speculation. The other side of the coin is that Wizards’ aggressive reprint of high value Standard rares in their Event Decks/Clash Packs widens the window in which you could pick them up for long-term spec.
A good number of expensive Standard rares in recent times were expensive because they found a home in Modern. Collected Company hit double digits (and hovered near $20 briefly) but Den Protector did not because Collected Company spawned new archetypes in Modern and made Elves tier one while Den Protector is strictly worse than Eternal Witness in Modern. Tasigur barely sees Standard play but the amount of eternal play he sees made him the most expensive rare in Fate Reforged. And I don’t think many would complain about Windswept Heath dropping back to $12 after the Khans of Tarkir fetches trended upwards during the summer. You can bet that Tasigur, Collected Company and Windswept Heath will appreciate at a decent rate in the following years as Modern staples.
These Event Deck/Clash Pack reprints creates another window, or extends the current window to pick up these cards as long-term investments. For financiers without a huge budget, or those who have to split their budget between specs and maintaining a competitive Standard card pool, this is likely to be welcome news. Personally, I could never pick up all the specs I have on my specs list for the month as I grind the competitive scene as well and I can’t just sink 90% of my Magic budget into a truckload of Tasigur when he bottomed at $6. Tasigur dropped from $8.50 to $6.50 after last week’s announcement, giving me another window to pick him up at rock bottom amid securing Battle for Zendikar staples.
Do share your thoughts in the comments section below, or catch me on Twitter at @theguoheng.
While there are not a lot of opportunities are this point to make or save money by purchasing cards from Battle for Zendikar, there are interesting foil trends and a lot of commons and uncommons that should be on your radar.
Pre-release promos
With so many possible promotional cards, it’s hard to pin down exactly how much some of these cards will cost. Right now the price of a pre-release foil is equivalent to a pack foil pre-order. I’d wager to guess that won’t stay true forever. In most cases the pre-release foil will fall under the price of a pack foil so it’s probably a good time to trade them away. In most cases where they don’t, they are usually still the same price. The easiest ones to trade away will be the planeswalker and legendary creatures but it’s not impossible to trade away some bulk promos like Aligned Hedron Network ( I traded mine on Pucatrade). Now is also the best time to move foils with premiums like Planeswalkers. I’d be especially keen to trade away walkers that cost more than 3 because they likely won’t see any eternal play. Gideon’s current price tag won’t last forever.
The Diamonds in the Rough
Does your lgs have a bulk foil box? Need a throw in to make up a few dollars in trades? Here are a few of my favorite commons from the set I like in foil.
This is Dispel’s third printing (all of which had a foil) but this is the first really standout art. I expect this Jace art Dispel to carry a premium for Modern players for years to come.
This is a weird effect, it’s probably good enough for most green Commander decks, though there is always a possibility it can be abused later since its effect costs “no mana.” I don’t expect to have a hard time trading any of these that I pick up.
This card might look like a poor man’s Volrath’s Stronghold, and it is, but mono black Commander decks are some of the most popular mono-colored decks. I’d expect it to easy replace in a Swamp in those decks and be a value land in many others. Many black decks already play Expedition Map to search up Urborg or Cabal Coffers.
This card has probably the best long term common from the set. I can’t imagine a way they can reprint a colorless spell outside of Zendikar. This card looks a lot like Unstable Obelisk.
The key differences are that exile is a much better answer than destroy and there is a surprise factor that comes with Scour from Existence. I expect at the very least, if you’re going to play an Unstable Obelisk you will also play a Scour from Existence.
What uncommons are worth picking?
This card, and all of the retreats really, are pretty easy slam dunks. While Retreat to Coralhelm has already been sneaking into Modern decks, I can’t imagine any of them not being played at some time. Commander players really like playing their 11th, 12th, or 16th land so they will likely want to get value from them.
Foil Sowing Salts are $8-10 each. This card does the same thing while being easier to cast. I can’t imagine it doesn’t eventually eclipse Sowing Salt as the land destruction of choice in Modern.
Sylvan Scrying is such an important role player in Modern but I can’t imagine it will see much Standard play. There will be a time when these foils end up super cheap and you will love picking them up and holding them for a Modern season spike. All it takes is one high profile finish to spike role player cards.
This card has a very unique effect. I expect we will see more colorless creatures in the next set that will make this better. Right now it’s not embarrassing to play but we really need some more 4-5 power Eldrazi to make it shine.
All of the Blighted lands are pretty decent pickups. The white one is probably the worst and the green one is the best. They are likely to keep some sort of Commander playability.
Foil Mindstones can be found for $5-8 with two printings. I expect this is the sweet spot between a Mind Stone and a Dreamstone Hedron which should make it pretty popular. It shouldn’t be hard to get these easily in trades.
Cards that reduce the mana cost of spells are always a corner case for broken things to happen. I don’t know if this guy is better than Goblin Electromancer but he could follow a similar trajectory and could break out even more if he becomes a force in some weird deck in Vintage (where you are more likely to be able to abuse this ability). At the very least he will be an important part of red and blue Commander decks with artifact sub-themes. Given Wizard’s recent history pushing that theme in those colors I would not expect this to stay bulk.
Final Thoughts:
Expeditions look like they might be a little more common than people thought. The market for them doesn’t seem to be there to sustain prices. With the limited supply from the pre-release prices are already racing to the bottom. If you have one you don’t need, I would try to trade it or sell it.
That being said, the expedition supply is all anecdotal at this point. Without a large retailer opening hundreds of cases of product it’s hard to know how often they appear.
The price of battle lands will likely drop quickly. Many decklists I have seen will not be playing 4 copies of any of them. Even 5 color decks likely won’t play more than 2 of any of them.
Khans Fetchland prices will probably peak next February or June. If you have extra ones I would choose one of those months to move them.
There is so much bad press on Sensei’s Divining Top. It survived the last Legacy ban list but got banned in the rarely played Duel Commander. This card will likely never get reprinted but I can’t imagine it surviving all formats forever. It promotes so many bad game play patterns. I would look to move mine before I get caught with my pants down.
Hardened Scales is almost $2 more than Siege Rhino. I don’t really understand why but I would likely not want to play any deck in Standard without Dromoka’s Command.
MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY
