Catch us Sunday morning for the final rounds of Pro Tour Fate Reforged coverage.
Round by Round Coverage
6:15pm: Rnd 16: Cohen (Amulet) vs. Bursavich (Infect)
Cohen puts Amulet of Vigor into the Top 8 and the specs are live!
6:12pm: Rnd 16: Sam Black (Amulet) vs. Jesse Hampton (Abzan)
Tasigur may be the backbreaker that puts away Sam Black. Did you buy your foils yet?
5:38pm: Sam Black on camera breaking down Amulet deck. Amulet of Vigor buyout is clearly ongoing online with copies drying up everywhere under $5, likely to land in the $5-8 range after the weekend. Just bought another 12 copies myself at $4.
5:20pm: Lee Shi Tian (Burn) vs. Nathan Smith (Burn)
More burn! How many Eidolon of the Great Revel do you own? Lee Shi Tian played Kor Firewalker in his R/W burn build out of the board to handle the mirror. Nice one. Foils are under $2.
Plenty of thinking required in this mirror. Burn as the “dumb deck” definitely a bit unfair. Lee Shi Tian just qualified for his 3rd PT Top 8 in the last year (4 total), pulling out a tight game against Smith.
5:19pm: Seth Manfield (Burn) vs Jacob Wilson (Liege Abzan)
Jacob got down a Leyline of Sanctity in Game 2 to steal the game, a card that could see new highs if Burn stays popular in the Meta.
5:08pm: Sam Black (Amulet) vs. Justin Cohen (Amulet)
Lol, an Amulet mirror match in the final rounds is hardly going to help dampen hype around Amulet since it virtually ensures one of these players makes Top 8 with the deck. Both players end up intentionally drawing to avoid knocking each other out of contention.
4:59pm: Seth Manfield (Burn) vs Jacob Wilson (Liege Abzan)
Manfield makes great use of Eidolon of the Great Revel to put away game 1 against Wilson.
4:09pm: Eric Froelich (Abzan) vs Jacob Wilson (Liege Abzan)
Jacob Wilson’s metagame call to run anti-discard cards in Loxodon Smiter and Wilt-Leaf Liege was looking pretty good vs. the more mainstream Abzan build. In game 3 however a flurry of Zealous Persecutions on both sides of the table leads to a dramatic combat step and EFro takes the match.
3:57pm: Round 14: Sam Black (Amulet) vs. Jon Finkel (Infect)
Amulet of Vigor is moving from $3 to $5-$6 so far on the camera time as players and speculators realize that this deck is no longer Tier 2. Last time this deck did well it hit $10 so be ready to sell in to the hype. Sam Black beat Finkel and the hype check is on for Amulet of Vigor and Primeval Titan as key cards in the deck that could rise, along with perhaps Gemstone Mine.
3:22pm: Cifka breaking down B/W Tokens deck for Randy. 3 copies of Sorin, Solemn Visitor especially notable.
3:12pm: Rnd 13: Frank Karsten (Affinity) vs. Jelger Wiegersma (Twin)
Remember folks, Mox Opal is being reprinted in MM2, so don’t go specing on it no matter how far Frank pushes.
3:05pm: Rnd 13: Seth Manfield (Burn) vs. Eric Froelich
Eidolon of the Great Revel may be due for price boost if this burn deck makes Top 8.
2:51pm: Marco Lombardi (Merfolk) vs. Sam Black (Amulet)
Merfolk back on camera! Sam Black wins this one too.
2:39pm Yuuki Ichikawa (Jund) vs Alexandre Bonneau (Living End)
First time we’ve seen these decks on camera this weekend. Fulminator Mage being highlighted.
2:21pm: Jakob Wilson on camera discussing the Wilted Abzan build, with Wilt Leaf Cavalier and Loxodon Smiter in place to blank Thoughseize and LOTV.
1:45pm: Round 12: Seth Manfield (Burn) vs. Jelger Wiegersma (Twin)
Manfield takes the match, staying undefeated on Burn.
1:44pm: Round 12: Sam Black (Amulet) vs. Robin Dollar (Abzan)
Primeval Titan and Hive Mind in the spotlight in the Amulet deck. Sam Black wins the match demonstrating Amulet as a non-fringe strategy.
1:33pm: Round 12: Jon Finkel (Infect) vs. Willy Edel (Abzan)
Round 11: 12:54pm: Martin Mueller just looked like a boss taking down Zvi Mowshowitz in the 3rd round of today’s draft portion.
11:58am: Seth Manfield on Burn is now 10-0, and looking very likely to take red spells into the Top 8
And we’re back for round by round MTGFinance coverage of Day 2 at Pro Tour: Fate Reforged!
Day 1 Summary
After 3 exciting rounds of FRF/KTK/KTK drafts, Day 1 saw Abzan dominate the Modern field with a whopping 30% of the metagame, as many of the relevant cards from the Birthing Pod decks saw play even without their namesake counterpart. Also at the top of the standings thus far are multiple are multiple Burn and Infect decks as aggressive strategies proved capable of taking advantage of the slower combo and untuned rogue decks throughout the first 5 rounds of constructed play.
Many interesting Rogue cards did appear on camera, though most have yet to prove their mettle. Here are some of the most exciting of the new ideas:
Wild Defiance was being put to use in Infect decks as a method for providing recurring access to the final boost often needed to win the long game
Humble Defectorshowed up in a Grixis Splinter Twin list, providing massive value as an early speed bump and minor card drawing engine, with the pilot rarely caring if his opponent got a couple of cards out of the deal.
Tasigur, The Golden Fang was all over the place but it was Pat Chapin who demonstrated his deck building master by showing up with Gurmag Angler to trump an expected field of 4/5 Siege Rhinos, Tarmogoyfs and Tasigurs. Sadly, the deck did not perform for Patrick and he failed to make Day 2, casting shadows on the people that were buying out foil Anglers Friday afternoon.
Sorin, Solemn Visitor showed up in the W/B tokens decks that showed up to check out the post-Treasure Cruise scene, demonstrating that it has the chops to find an ongoing home with tokens in Modern over Elspeth, Knight-Errant.
Lingering Soulswas also all over the top tables, playing a key role against Infect decks for both Abzan and W/B Tokens
Chord of Calling showed up in an Elves deck and looks criminally undervalue right now.
James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.
I initially planned to write solely about cards to watch during Pro Tour Fate Reforged. However, I’ve had the chance to participate in the first ever Tiny Leaders tournament in Malaysia over the weekend and friend and fellow Magic player @rezaaba convinced me that I should probably do a report on the event. So today’s article is going to be a two-in-one (talk about value for your time): the first portion discusses the cards which I am keeping an eye on as we count down towards the Pro Tour this weekend and throughout the Pro Tour. The second segment would be a round-by-round report of the Tiny Leaders tournament I attended.
Throwing My Hat into the Ring
The following are cards are possibly undervalued at the moment in terms of their price in relation to the amount of play they currently see and could potentially see. These are cards that could experience a spike if decks they running them performs at the Pro Tour.
Data on the post-ban metagame is sparse, with only five Modern Daily Events (the bans were enforced on Magic Online from 28 January onwards) and two StarCityGames Premier IQs. Going through the data, there is one deck that stood out, Amulet Bloom. It took down last weekend’s StarCityGames Premier IQ and is the most successful combo deck in the Modern Daily Events, comprising of 4.6% of the field. The deck is not exactly dominant, but it seems that reports of the death of Amulet Bloom have been greatly exaggerated. The deck is of interest financially because the namesake card of the deck could spike in price if Amulet Bloom spikes Pro Tour Fate Reforged.
Ain’t nobody got time for coming into play tapped.
Amulet of Vigor is at $3.05 even though the strategy of the archetype hinges on Amulet. If you are looking to invest in Amulet of Vigor, do keep in mind that it would be a short-term investment as Amulet of Vigor is at risk of being reprinted in Modern Masters 2015, although it escapes my mind what sort of limited archetype in Modern Masters would Amulet fit in.
Thalia may be 2/1 but she is a force not to be reckoned with, as her foes soon found out.
I often wonder why Thalia, Guardian of Thraben remains so cheap despite the amount of play she is currently seeing in Modern and Legacy. Thalia is present in Modern Hatebears, Modern Death and Taxes and the occasional Modern Zoo. You can also find her in Maverick and Death and Taxes in Legacy. And decks running Thalia want to run three to four copies of her. Most importantly, Thalia is not going to be reprinted in Modern Masters 2015, and by the virtue of being the Guardian of Thraben, we are unlikely to find her anywhere else but on the plane of Innistrad.
Seeing that I have been raving about Tiny Leaders lately, it is worth noting that Thalia is also solid leader in the format. Thalia is reputedly a favorite of Bramwell Tackaberry, the progenitor of the Tiny Leaders, and has been topping of the Winnipeg Tiny Leaders scene.
Thalia is a card that would eventually bump up in price as her current price of $4.38 is out of sync with the amount of eternal play she has been seeing. Unfortunately the chance that her price would be bumped by Pro Tour Fate Reforged looks to be slim, for the fact that the Pro Tour metagame is historically skewed towards midrange or blue-based decks. Thalia is a card I consider a good great long-term investment, at least until the following Modern Masters is announced, which we probably would not see until 2017.
I wrote about the next two cards in my article a short while ago. I am revisiting them today as there were new developments during the two weeks that have passed.
Since the announcement of the bans on 19 January, Sphinx’s Revelationspiked on Magic Online from the 9.8 tickets it was hovering at before settling at 16.8 tickets, but remained at $6.18 on paper, which was pretty much the same price it was at when I wrote my previous article. Modern staples are generally cheaper online due to the larger quantity of boosters being drafted online; when a key component of one of the potential new overlords of Modern is nearly three times more expensive online than its paper counterpart, a price correction is inbound. I think it is paper Sphinx’s Revelation that is due for correction, rather than the digital one.
I mentioned in my previous article – before we got any data on the post-ban metagame – that Thundermaw Hellkite would soar once more if Lingering Souls becomes prevalent again. Lingering Souls was ran in 19.8% of all the decks that moneyed the five Modern Daily Events since the bans were implemented on Magic Online and 18.6% of the top 16 decks (3 out of 16) in the StarCityGames IQ in Washington two weeks back (but none in last week’s IQ in Indianapolis as no Abzan Midrange decks made top 16). Lingering Souls has got its staple status reinstated in Abzan Midrange, one of the most popular decks in the post-ban Modern landscape.
Thundermaw Hellkite could very well be a level one tech at the Pro Tour designed to trump Abzan Midrange, which is predicted to be one of the most played tier one decks at the Pro Tour. Thundermaw Hellkite plays the role as a curve-topper in Jeskai Geist and Big Zoo. If Thundermaw sees a decent amount of play at the Pro Tour, I doubt Thundermaw’s price would remain under $10 as it is now ($9.25 as of writing). If you are looking to invest in Thundermaw Hellkite, it might be best to consider it a short-term investment due to the possibility of reprint in Magic 2016, as I have explained in my previous article.
Chord in a Post-Pod World
The card struck a chord with deck brewers.
As someone who has lived through the era of $40 Chords, I’ve mentioned on multiple occasions that Chord of Calling is unbelievably cheap at the $3.40 it is at right now. While Chord of Calling was discarded by Birthing Pod decks in the final chapter of the archetype’s evolution in favor of a less combo-reliant build, Chord is now a potential saviour of the archetype.
Jay Lansdaal wrote about a few different Pod shells that could be given a breath of new life with Chord of Calling. The lists harked back to the days of yore when Pod decks were combo decks with a beatdown backup plan. Chord of Calling replaced Birthing Pod in helping you assemble the combo pieces, whose tutoring capabilities also imbued the deck with toolbox capabilities.
Chord of Calling was also seen as a playset in Elves, which finished 9th at the recent StarCityGames IQ in Indianapolis. It could be a fluke performance of that archetype, but we are traversing uncharted territory in Modern, a landscape free from the subtly oppressive dominion of Pod decks, and for all we know Elves might actually be viable now.
Domri’s stature is misleading in terms of the amount of value he provides.
Speaking of Birthing Pod replacements, Domri Rade is another value engine option as featured in Jay Lansdaal’s Kiki Pod Chord shell and Redditor /u/OctilleryLOL‘s iteration of Kiki Chord. Together with Courser of Kruphix, Domri Rade is a beast of an advantage engine. At $6.86, Domri has a lot of room to grow if decks running Domri performs, especially if Kibleresque Zoo decks becomes viable.
Moonshot Card
This new tech has been floating around for a while, but I’ve only stumbled upon it courtesy of Travis Allen‘s tweet.
Séance for value.
Redditor /u/hp94 did pretty well with the list which possessed favorable matchups against BGx decks and Affinity. Magic Online user RaptureReady went 3 – 1 in a Modern Daily with a slightly modified list after reading the Reddit post. Like Pod, the deck is chock-full of value creatures, and to put it in Travis’ word, it is pretty much a Pod deck that runs Séance instead of Birthing Pod. And from what I’ve read, Séancing a Siege Rhino or Mulldrifter is quite a lot of value.
There has yet to be more results since then, though it has only been a little more than a week ago. Séance looks like a legitimate successor to Birthing Pod and at the bulk price of $0.29, it is a card worth keeping an eye on for the Pro Tour. It does not take much for a relatively old card like Séance to jump.
Tiny Leaders Tournament Report
The first ever Tiny Leaders tournament in Malaysia was held last week. Shout-out to the tournament organiser Kelvin Seow at HQ Sri Petaling for the initiative and the wonderful players who gave their support to the event. The turnout for the event surpassed our expectations: 15 players for a new format in the local Magic scene.
I ran the Anafenza, the Foremost list which I posted at the end of my article last week. The deck drew its inspiration from Modern Pod decks: it attacks from two angles with a beatdown plan A and Melira combo plan B.
Round 1 – Athreos, God of Passage
A few of the players participating in the tournament built their Tiny Leaders the night before just to play in the tournament. Unfortunately, my first round opponent was one of them and I felt bad jamming a refined Abzan list against him. Kudos to him though, for building the deck the night before (if I recall correctly, he heard of the tournament the night before) and coming to support the LGS in their first ever Tiny Leaders tournament.
1-0
Notes from the round: Tiny Leaders is as competitive as non-rotating formats like Modern and Legacy and tuned decks would walk over untuned lists. This should not be viewed as a downside as it applies to Modern and Legacy, and to some extend, Standard as well. Budget options are available for Tiny Leaders, and a good tier one is Anex and Cymede, which I would be writing about in my next article.
Round 2 – Geist of Saint Traft
My second round opponent, Kean ran a well-tuned Geist of Saint Traft list and the power level and fun of Tiny Leaders manifested itself in this match. Game one was a close grind as we exchanged removals for each other’s haymakers. It felt a bit like Legacy: Kean resolved a Stoneforge Mystic searching for his Sword of Feast and Famine, I ripped a Thoughtseize the next turn and got rid of it.
After bashing at me with Geist of Saint Traft and other pesky evasive creatures and building a board position for the kill the next turn, he tapped out and I managed to resolve a Chord of Calling to assemble the Melira combo.
In game two Kean fell on the wrong side of variance as he mulliganed to five and I proceeded to draw Wrench Mind (my Hymn to Tourach) and Thoughtseize.
2-0
Notes from the round: Kean pointed out a poignant observation about how Tiny Leaders differ from Legacy and Modern. Certain color combinations have access to less removals than they usually do due to the singleton nature of Tiny Leaders. My Dark Confidant survived longer than he should have in game one as Kean did not draw into one of his two answers: Swords to Plowshares or Path to Exile. The amount of card I drew off Dark Confidant allowed me to assemble the Melira combo pieces in the nick of time before he could swing for lethal.
Round 3 – Ezuri, Renegade Leader
Ah, the dreaded Elfball deck. Besides Geist of Saint Traft, Ezuri Elfball was the other deck I dedicated the most sideboard slots to. In game one, I was overruned by elves as I attempted to develop my board position from a slow opening hand.
Sideboard: +Zealous Persecution, +Drown in Sorrow, +Golgari Charm, -Sword of Fire and Ice, -Thoughtseize, -Lingering Souls
In game two I assumed the control role and sandbagged my removals for key creatures like his Elvish lords, Ezuri and any elf that could generate more than one mana. It is difficult to outsize his board position as he is a swarm deck after all. It was a close back-and-forth battle: I thought my chances were good when I managed to connect with a Sword of Feast and Famine-wielding Anafenza, but he has a Reclamation Sage to remove it before shoring up his board position with elves that grew in to outsize my creatures in power and toughness. I took game two one turn away from a whooping 30 damage Elvish alpha strike on the back of the Melira combo.
I got greedy in game three, keeping a hand with Zealous Persecution and Golgari Charm but only one land which was a Wooded Foothills. Most of my opponent’s elves were 1/1 prior to any lords and I reasoned that if I drew one more of my 18 remaining lands, or one of my four mana dorks, I would be able to reset his board twice. Alas, I saw no lands nor mana dorks until he has an Elvish Champion in play and I was quickly dispatched. Thankfully my opponent, Keith ended up taking down the whole tournament and propping up my tiebreakers.
2-1
Notes from the round: Elfball was slower I imagined it to be. The deck still has one of the fastest board-building speed in the format, but it does not go critical until it could untap with either Priest of Titania or Elvish Archdruid. It is imperative to keep those two off the board or answer them as soon as possible. Allowing your Elfball opponent to untap with either of those in play means facing an exponential growth in the number of elves and a quick trip to the next game.
It is also important to keep Ezuri off the board due to his ability to regenerate other elves. Dismember was MVP here as it gets around Ezuri’s regeneration shield (for other elves, if you could not afford to remove Ezuri first). I would prioritise removing Elfball’s Priest and Archdruid, followed by the lords and Ezuri.
Round 4: Vendilion Clique
Vendilion Clique turned out to be one of the most popular leaders in the tournament as a lot of the participants were Duel Commander players and they ported over their Duel Commander decks. My final round opponent was local alterist extraordinaire, Patterson and he sported some of the most gorgeous-looking basic islands I have seen.
Game one was a drawn-out grind for me to amass a board position amid his flurry of counterspells and bounces. He flooded out in the mid-game as he ripped one too many islands in succession (perils of having beautiful islands), which allowed me to sneak in a Midnight Haunting and bolster my tokens with Gavony Township. An Ancestral Visions did not draw him into the Cyclonic Rift he was looking for and it was game two.
I took out all my creature removals as there were no targets beyond Vendilion Clique and I have flying spirit tokens to handle that. The excessive number of artifact and enchantment removal stemmed from my fear of Back to Basics and getting Vedalken Shackled out of the game. Rightfully so, game two would have been lost had I not have a Reclamation Sage in hand when he resolved his Vedalken Shackles.
Notes from the round: Playing against blue was not as dreadful as I initially thought. The lack of board wipes meant that the fight was to resolve a few threats through his counterspells and bounces, and bounces were net negative in terms of card advantage. However, blue does have a lot of deadly enchantments and artifacts post-board that could wreck a tricolor creature-based deck if left unanswered.
3-1 (finished second)
Overall, the tournament was a hell of an experience. The complexity of Tiny Leaders and the decision trees available definitely felt like playing Legacy, or at the very least competitive Duel Commander. The singleton restriction was one of the factor as it promoted diversity in answers and threats. I have yet to amass enough Tiny Leaders experience to point out its flaws (and I am certain there are some), and from what little experience I’ve had, Tiny Leaders filled a gap for me by providing a format where I can experience the thrills of Legacy at a fraction of its cost and the fun of Commander without the long-drawn out games.
Fate Reforged continues to make its’ presence felt across Standard, Modern and even Legacy this week, with plenty of hits and misses arising from the latest set. Standard is awash with new and innovative deck ideas, resulting in plenty of card movement, and new format Tiny Leaders is also riding a hype wave, generating a handful of significant price spikes. Here’s the down low on the major price shifts in the world of paper Magic: The Gathering this week.
There are few things more fun in the world of Magic: The Gathering than having a jank rare come out of nowhere late in the Standard season as the centerpiece in a brand new combo deck. If you haven’t heard, the deck is mono-green, leveraging Nykthos, Karametra’s Acolyte and Voyaging Satyr to generate infinite mana with Temur Sabertooth. Basically you need to be able to generate 1 more mana with whatever you’re tapping, bouncing and replaying than it’s costing you to bounce (1G) and play it (1G-3G). Temur Ascendancy gives the mana dork haste, enabling the whole combo, along with providing random cards off your big guys when you need to dig to go off. As a bulk rare, there is some upside still be to be had here if the deck continues to do well, but unlike Jeskai Ascendancy it isn’t likely to find a home in other decks, and it would be hard pressed to break $3 as a previously unloved and heavily opened rare. That being said, there may be locals who aren’t turned on to the card and will throw some into trades to add value to your trade binder.
Format(s): Standard
Verdict: Acquire in Trades
2. Valorous Stance (Fate Reforged, Uncommon): $0.89 to $1.39 (+56%)
Many pros are saying that this flexible spell is the most important card in Fate Reforged for Standard purposes. That gives it an outside chance of achieving Stoke the Flames status as an overpriced uncommon from a small set, especially given the easy casting cost and plethora of decks in the format with access to a single white mana and the need to kill big guys and protect their own threats. It’s more likely that we see this settle around $2, but heading into the fall, I could see it boosting again because of the relatively scarcity of Fate Reforged (driven by the short period before the appearance of Dragons of Tarkir and then Modern Masters 2). I like this one as a throw-in target, but I won’t be buying any for now.
Format(s): Standard
Verdict: Acquire in Trades
3. Yavimaya Coast (10th Edition, Rare): $4.72 to $6.03 (+28%)
With Sultai control/mid-range builds looking like the deck to beat in post-Fate Reforged Standard, plenty of players are looking to pick up lands that work in the deck. You should be selling or trading into this pricing, along with Shivan Reef, as the fall rotation of M15 will send painlands crashing back to $1-2.
In mid-December during the usual fall set price lulls, I was picking up copies of Anafenza around $2 in the hopes of long range Modern play and possible Tiny Leaders play. Both of these scenarios have become real, and sooner than expected, and this goat loving mythic dame is also looking pretty useful in Abzan decks increasingly interested in reducing graveyard card counts to hamper opponents delve strategies. Foils especially are on the rise, with a cresting wave of Tiny Leaders hype over the last 2 weeks, and I think you want to be snapping up any copies you can find locally at last week’s prices wherever possible and looking for options to cash out at $5-10+/copy, or just hold for mid-term gains. Non-foils may have a couple of dollars left in them, but if you got in around Nov/Dec, you may just want to out them and move into something overlooked for Tiny Leaders or Modern play.
Format: Standard/Modern/Tiny Leaders
Verdict: Sell/Trade (Buy/Trade For Foils At Lagging Prices)
I’m sitting on about 60 copies of this powerful mana generator so I’m always happy to see it’s prospects rise, even if they’re unlikely to impact the long term game I’m playing. In Standard, the increased interest is sourced from the sudden feasibility of both Red and Green devotion strategies, based on new cards in Fate Reforged that help get more mana symbols on the table in a hurry. Even so, both of those decks will need to put up results for this card to break $5-6, and I’m much more interested in continuing to acquire for a future $10+ sell point 2-3 years down the road, when the supply has dried up. There’s always the possibility of a reprint on this card, but it isn’t easily slapped into most supplemental products and won’t find a home in any main set releases for several years yet, so I like the odds that this finds a peak before a post-rotation trough.
Zirilian of the Claw searches Dragons out of your library for 5-mana, an effect that is only ever going to see play at kitchen tables by Dragon-happy EDH players and little kids. Given that we’re headed into a heavily hyped set called Dragons of Tarkir however, it was perhaps inevitable that someone would try to spike this card by buying out the limited supply across the Internet. At the time of this writing there are a mere 9 copies left on TCGPlayer, with prices ranging from $10 to $18. This card going to $6 would have been reasonable on casual demand, but this price is bonkers, so dig up any copies you have in your bulk box and out them immediately to buylists or via Ebay/TCG to reap the rewards from the hype train, that is, assuming there are even buyers to milk.
Time Walk sounds so sexy. In fact, some folks thought it sounded so sexy they were pre-ordering this card over $20. This is a sad time for those people, because the consensus is that this card is as unplayable as the last few similar cards. I fully expect this to show up in a Woo Brew in a few years, but until then, you should be dropping these like they’re hot.
He’s not as good as we hoped, now get over it. Though he is seeing some play in Abzan decks, he’s not greatly improving those decks, they aren’t expanding in the format, and I fully expect this card to hit $3-4 within the month. Get out however you can and into something with more upside.
This card was on my “sleepers” list a couple of weeks back when there were whispers that it would find a home in Sultai lists. That premise has come to pass, but even the decks that are playing it aren’t running more than a single copy typically, and many builds aren’t even bothering since those decks already have plenty to do each turn. I think this settles back around $3-4 for now, but watch for a breakout performance to pump it back up.
Format(s): Standard
Verdict: Sell
Quick Hits:
Rings of Brighthearth is also spiking from a likely buyout, possibly related to Tiny Leaders hype. Time to sell.
Tiny Leaders is well into hype engine mode, with a plethora of new #mtgfinance and strategy articles written by pros and finance writers over the last 2 weeks. Finding overlooked cards that are good in the format and stockpiling foils is looking like a solid play, even if the hype dies out longer term. Cards like Unearth, Varolz, the Scar-Striped and Doran, the Siege Tower have already spiked hard. Find a target.
Tasigur did damage on camera in Legacy this weekend, attacking alongside Tarmogoyf and further increasing the likelihood that foils are a good buy. Remember Snapcaster Mage is a big set staple that hit $100+ on strong Modern/Legacy play. Tasigur is from a small set, but not quite as powerful, and also a legend. Even still, I can see his foils hitting $40 this year, from the current $21-$23. I’m buying.
James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.
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I’ve always wondered how it felt like to be an early adopter of bitcoins. To be one of those who got in when bitcoins were $0.20 each (bitcoin is now trading at $257.09 per bitcoin). To be a member of the bitcoin millionaire club just for the virtue of being an early adopter of a technology most initially shrugged off as a passing fad.
Ah, the perks of being an early adopter.
While I was drawn into Commander when the format first broke into the mainstream with the release of the first Commander products in 2011, I paid little attention to the financial aspects of Commander cards. It was a fun, casual format of singleton cards and my logic (flawed in retrospect) told me the demand for Commander cards would not be sufficient to drive the price of Commander staples.
Fast forward to 2015. I am now writing a Magic finance column and one of my area of focus is undervalued Commander foils. While most Commander staple foils have already spiked, there are still some undervalued Commander foils lurking beneath the bush, but they are hard to find. It feels a bit like foraging for truffles. I hate to admit it, but the treasure cruise for speccing on Commander foils had left the port a while ago and we are trawling the waters for any gold that fell off the barge.
Magic, fortunately is an ever-changing landscape, and once in a while we get something new brewing on the horizon. Sometimes it’s an innovative supplementary product like Conspiracy. Sometimes it’s an exciting new format.
The Littlest Giants
Tiny Leaders seemed to be the talk of Magic town lately. Tiny Leaders is a new take on the Commander format where players play with 50 card decks including their commander, and a defining caveat that only cards with three or less casting cost can be played. Designed by Bramwell Tackaberry in 2013, the format spread quickly among his local community and in the past few months, began to gain traction in the Magic community as a whole.
Chas Andres briefly discussed Tiny Leaders in his article last November. Jimi Brady at GatheringMagic.com put up a piece on Tiny Leaders with some sweet decklists the same month. Eric Levine, Commander-in-Residence at Channel Fireball wrote an article about it in December, so did Matt Higgs at StarCityGames. I first heard about the format myself from Brainstorm Brewery’s mid-January 2015 Fate Reforged set review podcast, where Jason E Alt was talking about the viability of two of the Fate Reforged khans as Tiny Leader commanders. My fellow finance writer at MTGPrice, Cliff Daigle also wrote an article about the format last week. Even people at The Mothership started paying attention to the format recently:
The Tiny Leader community is still growing, with the Facebook group and subreddit both boasting a membership of around 1,500 members each as of writing. I highly recommend checking out both groups if you are interested to delve more into the format. And I definitely recommend giving Tiny Leaders a try if you have yet to do so.
Tiny Leaders, Big Potential
Why do I think Tiny Leaders has the potential to be the next big format in Magic? It shares a characteristic found in a lot of successful startups: it caters to an unfulfilled niche.
Tiny Leaders is a cross between Commander and Legacy, a singleton Legacy. The majority of the mana curve in Legacy lies at three or less anyway, so cards that are good in Legacy are bound to be good in Tiny Leaders as Jimi Brady pointed out in his article. Jimi also mentioned a very valid point on why the format has the potential to catch on like wildfire: it has a relatively low entry barrier. A Tiny Leaders deck requires less cards than the usual 60-card deck and only one-of rather than a playset-of expensive staples.
I can’t get into Legacy with the single Tarmogoyf and Dark Confidant I opened from my two boxes of Modern Masters, and they are not exactly optimal cards for Commander. However they fit snugly into my Anafenza, the Foremost Tiny Leaders brew. To be honest, the virtue of being a singleton format is that players could get away with missing a few expensive pieces and still have a relatively competitive deck. This list by redditor /u/darkflame1o1 performed pretty well at a tournament despite missing Dark Confidant and Tarmogoyf.
Tiny Leaders appeals to players too spikey to play Commander, or players who are weary of long Commander games and all the politicking which are integral to Commander games. Even Brainstorm Brewery’s ‘I’m-never-gonna-touch-Commander’ Marcel professed an interest in Tiny Leaders in their recent podcast.Tiny Leaders has the competitive lure of Duel Commander, and is better designed for competitive play.
I feel I ought to include arguments against Tiny Leaders taking off to provide an objective view of the format’s future. While Chas Andres mentioned a few good ones in his article, he nevertheless gave the format a moderate to high chance of future success. I think those drawbacks mentioned in Chas’ article – potential power-level imbalance and small number of players – are issues that confronted every new format as it made the leap from niche to mainstream.
Power-level imbalances could be ironed out with astute management of the banlist. The banlist is currently managed by Steven Harmonic and Matthew Turnbull with input from the community (Steven and Matthew are highly active on the Tiny Leaders subreddit and Bram manages the Tiny Leaders Facebook group).
The issue with the format’s small player base is temporary and is remedied as format hits a tipping point in momentum, something which I think is Tiny Leaders is heading towards right now with the amount of interest and attention it is getting from the community. Besides the increasing number of articles being written about the format, and the number of times Brainstorm Brewery mentioned it in their podcast, Cedric Phillips and Patrick Sullivan briefly discussed Tiny Leaders during the commentary of StarCityGames’ Washington DC Open last weekend, all good signs of the format breaching through into the mainstream.
Tiny Investments
Tiny Leaders cards are in an interesting spot financially – the format’s three mana and below casting cost restriction meant that a swath of the format’s staple overlap with Legacy and Modern staples, which are already pricey. On the other hand, the restriction led to cards with casting cost-specific effects to be more powerful in the context of Tiny Leaders. Unearth becomes a Reanimate without a drawback. Smother becomes an unconditional removal. Three CMC and under spells with X as part of their casting cost is a way to circumvent the figurative power level of the format, as spells with an X in their casting cost scales according to the amount of mana channelled into X.
Today, we are going to go through a few of these cards that could potentially spike if Tiny Leaders takes off. First off, we have the heads of the states decks.
The Leaders
Grenzo, Dungeon Warden
Fifty Shades of Grenzo.
Non-foil: $1.33
Foil: $18.03
Two reasons why Grenzo, Dungeon Warden is sweet in Tiny Leaders: He has an X in his casting cost and he could generate a swarm all by himself. Tristan Gregson pointed out on Twitter that Grenzo could be a good Tiny Leaders pick-up and I wholly agree. Non-foil copies are unlikely to stay at $1.33 as the demand for Grenzo increases and being flavor-tied to Conspiracy, Grenzo is unlikely to see a reprint. Foils are already expensive as Grenzo is also a decent Commander general and I am not a fan of speccing on those.
Ezuri, Renegade Leader
Leading the Elfball revolution.
Non-foil: $1.67
Foil: $5.78
Ezuri Elfball is one of the tier one decks in Tiny Leaders. $5.78 is a good buy-in for foil copies of a tier one leader from an old set. Non-foils at $1.67 have room to grow but being reprinted Commander 2014 means a longer lag in appreciation. I would rather snag up foil copies.
Varolz, the Scar-Striped
Varolz, the Scar-Striped troll.
Non-foil: $0.59
Foil: $3.05
Another tier one leader, foil Varolz, the Scar-Striped is only $3, courtesy of being from a recently rotated set. I would pick up foils rather than non-foils at this price. Varolz is also playable as part of the 49.
Ambassador Laquatus
He was not a great ambassador. Milling your opponent to death is not very diplomatic.
Non-foil: $1.09 (Tenth Edition); $0.70 (Torment)
Foil: $3.51 (Tenth Edition); $3.68 (Torment)
Ambassador Laquatus is a good example of cards that are crap everywhere except in the context of Tiny Leaders. Against a 50-card deck, milling becomes a viable competitive strategy. Sword of Body and Mind was banned for the exact reason. Laquatus is a tier one leader and both foil and non-foil copies are good pick-ups at those prices.
Contextually Good Cards
As mentioned above, some cards are just better in a format with an imposed maximum casting cost of three.
Unearth
It’s all about the context.
Non-foil: $0.72
Foil: $7.02
Unearth is a unconditional and drawback-free Animate Dead in Tiny Leaders. Cheating-into-play may not be necessary for most creatures costing three or less, but Entomb is legal in this young format and there is potential for graveyard shenanigans. Non-foil copies look like good pickups at under $1.
Sunforger
Not exactly forged by the Sun God, they belong on different planes after all.
Spells with X in their casting cost circumvent the imposed three casting cost ceiling and there is a lot of potential for powerful effects the power of those spells scale according to the amount of mana sinked into them. White Sun’s Zenith has the potential to be a late game finisher not just for control decks, but also for midrange decks looking for a card to close out games fast in the mid-to-late game. Foils for $2.39 could be a good investment.
Tiny Leaders’ three casting cost ceiling rendered a lot of sweepers illegal in deckbuilding. Black Sun’s Zenith is one of few black sweepers available as pointed out by Chaz from BoltSnapBolt. Although the Game Day full art foils just increased in price, the Mirrodin Besieged foils at $5 is not a a shabby pick-up.
Ratchet Bomb
Literally a ticking bomb.
Non-foil: $0.48 (M14); $0.51 (Scars of Mirrodin)
Foil: $1.70 (M14); $3.24 (Scars of Mirrodin)
Speaking of sweepers, Ratchet Bomb is a colorless sweeper that could become a staple in the Tiny Leaders besides Engineered Explosives. Ratchet Bomb may be too slow for other formats, but is efficient in Tiny Leaders. Foils at $1.70 have room to grow if the format takes off.
The Big Picture
Tiny Leaders is a format in its infancy. The format is a brewer’s paradise, brimming with unexplored deckbuilding space. There has yet to be a repository for Tiny Leaders decklists or tournament results. The two places to find Tiny Leaders decklists currently are the Tiny Leaders Facebook group and subreddit. I would definitely recommend checking out those forums. There are a lot of innovation and ideas being bounced around, but there has yet to be highly-tuned lists of respective archetypes, which means an abundance of opportunity for deck brewers to get brewing.
The metagame is still young and evolving. The addition of Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest and Alesha, Who Smiles at Death injected a lot new design space in the format as previously Tiny Leaders does not have a Jeskai or Mardu leader and resorted to a placeholder ‘leader’ with no abilities.
The format’s future is by no way certain. For all we know, the hype and interest that is building up a momentum right now could dissipate before the end of the year. However, judging by the overwhelmingly positive response from those who dipped their toes in the format, I am confident that Tiny Leaders would grow into the next big format.
In Retrospect
I guess I am not hopelessly bad in spotting the next big thing. I was an early fan of Modern and I completed my playset of blue-based staples back in 2011, shortly after the inception of Modern. I was confident that Modern would grow into the next big thing as it filled a niche that many players, myself included felt was missing from the competitive scene.
I wanted to play in a competitive non-rotating format where I could run my favorite pet deck all the time, but I could not afford to buy into Legacy. Modern filled that niche in that it served as an intermediary between Standard and Legacy, a non-rotating format with a lower barrier of entry. Gavin Verhey’s Overextended has been garnering a lot of interest, so there must have been plenty of other players in similar positions as I was.
I had my hipster moment with Modern. I acquired my Scalding Tarns and Misty Rainforests at $15 each, Vendilion Cliques at $8 each, Player Rewards Cryptic Commands at $10 each, among many others. I ran Storm in the first Modern PTQ season in 2012 and crashed badly, but it was fun. Storm was my pet deck for one whole year. It won me my first Grand Prix Trial and performed okay for me on Magic Online daily events. Eventually Jeskai (UWR back in those days) Geist took over and it has been my go-to deck up till Ancestral Recall became Modern legal (sort of).
My excitement for Tiny Leaders reminded me of how I felt about Modern in 2011. I am excited for Tiny Leaders because the format is an opportunity for me to play a fast-paced Duel Commander game with a touch of Legacy’s power level but only a fraction of Legacy’s buy-in fee. And I am excited that my enthusiasm for the format is shared by many other players and writers.
Bonus: My Anafenza, the Foremost Tiny Leaders
Seeing that there is a dearth of Tiny Leaders decklists at the moment, let me share with you my Anafenza brew that I am taking with me to what seems to be Malaysia’s first Tiny Leaders tournament this weekend.
Commander: Anafenza, the Foremost
First and foremost, let me sing you the song of my +1/+1 counters.
Creatures
Avacyn’s Pilgrim
Bird of Paradise
Deathrite Shaman
Llanowar Elves
Cartel Aristocrat
Dark Confidant
Melira, Sylvok Outcast
Scavenging Ooze
Tarmogoyf
Tidehollow Sculler
Eternal Witness
Knight of the Reliquary
Kitchen Finks
Loxodon Smiter
Varolz, the Scar-Striped
Planeswalkers
Liliana of the Veil
Instants
Enlightened Tutor
Worldly Tutor
Sword to Plowshares
Abrupt Decay
Smother
Chord of Calling
Dismember
Midnight Haunting
Sorceries
Green Sun’s Zenith
Lingering Souls
Thoughtseize (I don’t own Inquisition of Kozilek)
Artifacts
Sensei’s Divining Top
Sword of Feast and Famine
Sword of Fire and Ice
Lands
Gavony Township
Windswept Heath
Wooded Foothills
Flooded Strand
Polluted Delta
Bloodstained Mire
Arid Mesa
Marsh Flats
Godless Shrine
Overgrown Tomb
Temple Garden
Woodland Cemetery
Sunpetal Grove
City of Brass
Cavern of Souls
Command Tower
Plains
Swamp
Forest
The deck attacks on multiple angles, in the spirit of one of the best Magic strategy articles in recent time. There are four one-drop mana dorks to ‘ramp’ into the three drops on turn two for a fast start. One of the perks of having a leader is having access to a three drop to ramp into all the time. The deck is also quite mana-hungry as the mid-game plan hinges on Gavony Township and tutoring out value creatures.
The mana dorks help fuel the deck’s mid game, besides providing an extra layer of consistency to ensure that we hit our ‘land drops’ every turn. Those mana dorks could be conscripted to the frontline during the mid-to-late game as they get jacked up with Anafenza’s counters or Gavony Township.
The tutors are also present for the deck’s second angle of attack: the classic Melira infinite life combo. The combo pieces are Melira, Sylvok Outcast, Kitchen Finks and either Cartel Aristocrat or Varolz, the Scar-Striped to loop for infinite life. The initial blueprint had a Blood Artist to enable a combo kill, but I’ve found that Blood Artist was a dead card outside the combo. With the exception of Melira, all the other components of the combo are creatures that can provide exceptional value by themselves. Kitchen Finks sort of combos with Anafenza to reset its -1/-1 persist counters. Varolz and Cartel Aristocrat are two hard to remove creatures, ideal targets for Anafenza to bestow +1/+1 counters on.
The game plan is resoundingly similar to Birthing Pod decks (RIP): grind your opponent out with value creatures and develop a superior board position with Gavony Township. If and when the opportunity arises, execute the infinite life combo by tutoring out the pieces on instant speed. Tidehollow Sculler is there to give us a tutorable hand disruption if we find the need to ensure that the coast is clear before we execute the Melira combo.
Thanks for reading through all 3,000 words of this article. I hope the article has provided you with an insight into this wonderful new format called Tiny Leaders and cards which price could take off together with the format. Comments are most welcomed and you either leave a comment below or at engage me on Twitter at @theguoheng.
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