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Digging for Dollars, James Chillcott, Uncategorized

Digging for Dollars: Fate Reforged

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By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Fate Reforged, the second set in the Khans of Tarkir block, is proving to be a tantalizing puzzle for folks interested in MTGFinance. The set introduces new mechanics, cards and themes which are difficult to evaluate without detailed deck testing. Further, the wide open nature and high power level of the current standard format means that incoming cards have a high bar to measure up to, and many possible interactions to consider.  Fate Reforged also includes reprints of the KTK fetchlands, so their value will also weigh on all but the best of the cards in the set.  Also worth considering is the fact that Fate Reforged will only be on the market for 6 weeks or so before Dragons of Tarkir previews start, opening up new opportunities and pitfalls for previously released cards, as well as reducing overall openings for Fate Reforged.

The set’s financial value is currently anchored by a scant handful of mythic rares: Ugin, the Spirit Dragon, Monastery Mentor and Soulfire Grand Master. These three cards alone are currently valued at a combined $80+, and as such, most rares in the set will end up in near-bulk status ($1-2) unless they can achieve widespread success while simultaneously displacing the demand for the big 3 mythics (as some reduction in the 3 hottest card’s value will likely be necessary for the remaining cards to rise in value. For what it’s worth I currently have Ugin, Mentor and Grand Master pegged to hit $20, $22 and $14 respectively within 6 weeks of release.)

This scenario almost certainly means that picking the few remaining cards that may break out as major players in the new standard or older formats is a potentially very profitable endeavor. Doing so however, is easier said than done, as one must identify the unsung heroes of the set, while simultaneously predicting that other players will come around to the same line of thinking through play testing and tournament results.

Before we dive in on Fate Reforged cards however, it behooves us to look back over our collective shoulders at some of the cards that “made it” from Khans of Tarkir last fall to see what helped them make us money. Here’s a few of the bigger hits:

  1. Treasure Cruise (foil)
  2. Dig Through Time (reg/foil)
  3. Siege Rhino (foil)
  4. Monastery Swiftspear (foil)
  5. Sidisi, Brood Tyrant (reg)

The common theme here is “powerful cards that were underestimated at first”, with a splash (in Sidisi) of cards that just needed time to find their place in Standard. Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time were w0idely insulted in the early days of KTK previews, as folks who hadn’t played with Delve before had trouble envisioning just how powerful mana-free casting costs really are. While others were insulting these cards in set reviews I was picking up Japanese foils by the dozen, a move that allowed me to double up within 2 months of release. Monastery Swiftspear was another widely unheralded card during preview season but it now stands shoulder to shoulder with Delver of Secrets and Goblin Guide as one of the best 1-drop threats ever printed.  Japanese foils of this card were available overseas for as little as $8USD in September, and I sold my last set this week for $50/per.

Siege Rhino was identified as being a central pillar of standard fairly early on, but when I started suggesting he was destined for Modern play in November based on some early Pod lists from key pros, plenty of people scoffed. Fast forward a few months and Rhino is a key component of the evolving Value (Birthing) Pod decks, and many pros have stated that it’s so good in Modern that it would likely survive the banning of Birthing Pod itself. I’ve been snatching up $10-15 foil copies of Siege Rhino, as I can easily see them hitting $30+ in a post-Treasure Cruise world in Modern. Sidisi, Brood Tyrant was on the back bench for the first half of the fall standard season as Jeskai Tempo, Abzan, Temur and Jeskai Ascendancy decks dominated the scene, but as the season continued, the grindy Whip of Erebos decks emerged as the value mongers of the format, and Sidisi, as a 4-of mythic, provided strong returns on the $2 low prices I was paying in late October.

Note that the key with almost all of these cards was that they were cross-format all-stars, with most of them being played in at least 2 formats. Also, each card often appears as a 3 or 4-of, and only Sidisi is Legendary.

Our goal then is to similarly identify the cards from Fate Reforged that are currently the most underrated and undervalued, and which have the best shot at crossing formats or at least achieving dominant positions in standard.

Here are my picks for the cards in Fate Reforged most likely to reward early speculation:

  1. Humble Defector (Foil)

Formats: Standard, Modern, Legacy, Vintage

Humble Defector is my top pick for underrated cards in Fate Reforged. To my eyes, as an aggressive 2-drop that can easily be leveraged as a card drawing engine and combo enabler it is very likely to find a home in multiple formats as cards are noticed or released that enable his most broken possible turns. Many players seem to be getting hung up on the fact that this card can end up in the hands of an opponent, but focusing on this drawback largely misses the point of this card. You see, ideally, the deck that makes the best use of his ability will be built to ensure that he either a) doesn’t live long enough to let the opponent draw cards or b) steals him back. Regardless, with all the card draw, presumably nested within an Aggro, Combo or Burn shell, the opponent shouldn’t be around very long even in the worst case scenario.

Of special note is how well Humble Defector combos with the utterly broken standard/modern/legacy combo piece Jeskai Ascendancy. With Ascendancy and Humble Defector in play and cantrips in hand, you have the potential to draw 4-8 cards in the same turn, ultimately bouncing (Retraction Helix) or sacrificing (Collateral Damage) Humble Defector after drawing your cards and possibly even attacking for 3-4 damage in lieu of his last card draw trigger. If that doesn’t peak your interest, nothing will. Note that even in situations where the opponent actually gets to use Humble Defector, you got your cards first, they aren’t likely to be set up like you are to abuse him, and they then have to give him back for you to further abuse. It’s also worth noting that Humble Defector is a great card to play politics with in EDH.

Now as an uncommon, I’m much more interested in foils and foreign foils of this guy than I am regular copies, as I believe that it’s only a matter of time before he finds a home in a broken deck in the older formats.

2. Frontier Siege (Non-Foil/Foil)

Formats: Standard/Modern/EDH

There are a few things people are missing with this card at first glance. Firstly, it generates GG at the start of both of your main phases (both before and after your combat phase), which is to say, this is a ramp spell that generates 4 mana per turn at the cost of 4 mana. Now it’s true that you don’t get all of the mana at the same time, but if you had 4 mana to put it into play, you now have 4 mana in each of your main phases, which means that in a green, deck you probably just ramped from 4 mana to 8 mana on turn 4, with the caveat that you can cast two 4-drops but not Ugin. If you have permanents that can make use of the extra mana, such as enchantments, equipment or pump effects, all the better. The 2nd mode on the card seems kind of narrow, until of course you realize that it combos with both Hornet Nest and Hornet Queen, in that the Hornets now act as Nekrataals when they hit the board. This card is commonly available under a $1 at present, and could hit $4-5 if it ends up being heavily played in Standard within the year. Foils are out there in the $3-5 range, and seem likely to achieve $10+ down the road.

3. Yasova Dragonclaw (Non-Foil)

Formats: Standard

Sure, she dies to everything in the format, but so does Monastery Mentor and Goblin Rabblemaster and they’re still top cards. She’s also a Legendary Creature, which never helps, but a lot of people are missing some of her potential shenanigans. She is likely a Standard only kind of gal, so that doesn’t help her odds to make us money, but Trample is actually more useful in this format than most folks realize. Still, no less a player than Frank Karsten has proposed her presence in a deck seeking to abuse Humble Defector and Collateral Damage, and he points out the following set of potential interactions:

  • Humble Defector + Yasova Dragonclaw: Draw two and immediately steal it back from your opponent [on the attack] to draw two more.
  • Humble Defector + Collateral Damage: Put the activated ability on the stack and sacrifice it in response. You get to draw 2 cards, and your opponent won’t get anything in return.
  • Yasova Dragonclaw + Collateral Damage: Attack your opponent with his own creature and then sacrifice it to kill another one of his creatures.

All of that sounds good, but I still don’t expect Yasova to get there early in the season switchover. As such, she could drop as low as $1, at which point I’ll be looking to get in on a few playsets, if further reasons to play her have popped up, looking to exit around $3-4.

4. Tasigur, The Golden Fang (Non-Foil)

Formats: Standard/Modern/Legacy/EDH

This guy has been discussed plenty, but no one seems quite certain whether he’s the real deal. At $3 pre-order he may head lower before he heads higher, but he could also hit $6-7 if he makes it to an early top table as part of the reformulated Whip deck. The downside here is that he’s a Legendary creature, and as such, unlikely to be used as a 4-of. On the upside, he hits on a number of interesting angles, including low casting cost (due to Delve), the ability to fuel future graveyard/Delve cards later in the game, and his ability to rebuy your best cards, as manipulated by other Delve costs being paid. His single black casting cost and hybrid mana ability cost also means he could end up in decks we haven’t thought of yet, and in color combinations other than Sultai. That’s a lot of power for a card that will often be cast for 2-3 mana and I suspect that we see Tasigur find a home as a 2-3 of in Whip decks and settle in the $4-5 range once folks move on to opening Dragons of Tarkir instead of Fate Reforged. There’s also a possibility people will want foils down the road for EDH or Legacy or Modern, as he’s likely big enough to tussle with the best, so tread that path as you will since they’re still under $10 at present.

5. Torrent Elemental (Non-Foil)

Formats: Standard/Legacy

I totally missed this card on my first pass, outside of possible niche Legacy applications with Force of Will (as a card that can be exiled and provide future value). Then a few notable deck builders drew my attention to the fact that the card can also be exiled by Delve spells as part of their casting cost, and that a Whip/Delve/Tasigur deck is likely to be a thing in the very near future, based on early testing results. I’m still not completely sold, as I’m not sure this thing is ever going to be a 4-of, and could easily be pushed out of the resulting deck in favor of better metagame choices. Nevertheless, any “maybe” mythic  available under $3 is worth a look because if it becomes a mainstay it could easily rise into the $8-10 range.

6. Cloudform (Foil)

Formats: Standard/Legacy

One of the biggest problems with trying to pull off tricks with Manifest is that whatever you throw out there as a 2/2 is likely to be vulnerable until such time as you can flip it up. Now in standard it’s not clear that Manifest got enough support to “get there”, but in older formats many players are overlooking the potential to abuse your library with manipulation like Sensei’s Divining Top , Worldly Tutor, Ponder or Serum Visions, and manifest a Phyrexian Dreadnaught or Hooded Hydra for very little mana. A 12/12, flying, hexproof creature or a 5/5 flying, hexproof creature that leaves behind 5 1/1s is nothing to scoff at. As such I’ve been snagging these foils under $3 (maxing at 6 sets) on the assumption that someone is going to find a fun Tier 2 deck in an older format at some point that makes these a very solid value. One deck list I’ve been fooling around with mixes elements of Reanimator and Show&Tell with Cloudform, Brainstorm and Faithless Looting to ensure we’re sneaking something awesome into play on turn 2 or 3 one way or the other.

7. Wildcall (Non-Foil/Foil)

Formats: Standard/Modern/Legacy

If a Manifest deck makes it even to Tier 2 in Standard in the next 18 months, than the 50 copies of this rare card I’ve acquired for $.50 are going to look pretty smart. As with Cloudform, the potential is there for broken shenanigans in older formats as well, so I’m happy to sit on these for a while even if nothing develops in standard. The bottom line is that Wildcall always provides a creature of the size appropriate to the turn you draw it on, a subtle feature that should not be underestimated. Give it enough things worth manifesting and it just gets better, and it’s worth noting that placing counters on things is an added bonus that can be abused.

8. Dark Deal (Foil)

Formats: Modern/Legacy/Vintage/EDH

Call me crazy, but this isn’t different enough from the banned Windfall template to make this unplayable. Sure, you get one less card, but you see X-1 additional cards for 3 mana, where X was your initial hand size, all while stocking your graveyard with exactly the things you wanted to get there. Think combo, delve, reanimator, etc. You may also disrupt your opponent, though you’re just as likely to fix their hand. Nevertheless, I suspect this card is breakable as a combo/enabler piece in older formats and with foils going for around $2 I’m happy to pick up a few sets. At the very least Nekusar decks will run this in EDH, giving your cheap foils a fine fallback position. As an uncommon with no likely prospects so far in Standard, steer clear on non-foils.

9. Reality Shift (Foil)

Formats: Standard/Modern/Legacy/Vintage

This card is half Path to Exile and half Swan Song, and it’s almost certainly playable in Vintage and Legacy. It exiles a creature for 2 mana, which is twice as much as Path to Exile or Swords to Plowshares. This must be balanced however against the fact that it’s in blue, the undisputed best color in eternal formats and the most frequent partner for burn spells. Being able to remove big threats easily while (probably) leaving a slow 2/2 clock on the board might actually be better than giving the opponent a land or some life, especially if you were sweeping, burning or otherwise ignoring their creatures anyway. It’s possible that the card even shows up in standard, since it answers most threats in the format easily and cheaply, and it’s drawback can be worked around in the air. StarCityGames.com quietly sold out of these at $2.99 and $3.99 during pre-orders, so if you can snag these in that range you should be in good shape for when they start popping up in powerful decks.

10. Soulflayer (Non-foil/Foil)

This bad boy is hanging over the next phase of KTK Standard like a giant, nasty question mark. Is he an auto-include in Sultai whip decks? Will it be worth it to pair him with Chromanticore and live the dream? His current pre-sales at $2.50 and $5 for non-foils and foils respectively reflect curiosity present in the absence of certainty. Myself, I don’t think we’re dreaming big enough.   In Standard you can get a 4/4 Flying, First Strike, Lifelink, Vigilence and Trample creature with Chromanticore, sure, but you could also just use Sagu Mauler to get Trample/Hexproof, or Siliumgar to get Hexproof/Flying which may be the better option in a format with tons of removal flying around. Reflect on the fact that in Legacy you can go: Swamp, 2x Dark Ritual, Emtomb Silumgar, Soulflayer and have your bad boy ready to party on turn 1 with very little chance of a valid response from your opponent beyond Force of Will. Start brainstorming decks that can dump 2-3 relevant creatures with the full mix of abilities into the graveyard early in the game and things really get nasty. In Standard I give this guy a 50/50 shot of hitting full potential and getting up to $6-8, but I think his foils actually have more upside as his combo partners are only going to get more numerous as time goes on, and could easily reach $30-40 with a top table result.

Honourable Mention: Silumgar & Atarka

 

I think both of these wild wyrms are being underestimated, especially given what’s likely to show up in a certain set called “Dragons of Tarkir”, coming our way in only a couple of months. Siliumgar, the Drifting Death, is likely a strict upgrade for UB control vs. Pearl Lake Ancient at a time where that deck is also gaining Reality Shift, Ugin and Crux of Fate. Hexproof and flying are a big game in the current standard, as is dodging the sweeper effect of Elspeth, Sun’s Champion and killing the myriad of expected tokens when you attack a la Doomwake Giant. He’s also a great blocker until you find your Crux and go on offense. He’s probably only a 1-2 of, and his ceiling is therefore likely around $4-5, but with a ton more dragons coming this spring, he can only get better. Atarka on the other hand is looking like a custom made finisher to pair with See The Unwritten and Stormbreath Dragon. In the current standard it’s not tough at all to cast STU on turn 4 off of Savage Knuckleblade for Ferocious and end up with a 6/4 Double Striking attacker to take the first kill spell while Stormbreath or Hornet Queen mops up. And that’s just with the tools we’ve already got.  Like Silumgar, Atarka is pre-ordering for just $1.50 and I suspect it will slide to $1 once the floodgates open on online sales and I fully intend to grab at least 12 of each once we get there.

So there you have it, the long-shot specs of Fate Reforged. Which ones are you going after and why? Anything I missed that you think has a shot at a big rise?

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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Many new features added to MTGPrice.com!

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First, a bit of history. This is what version one of MTGPrice.com looked like, two and a half years ago:

blog1

 

Sexy, right?

We’ve come a long way but we’re hardly finished. Today, I want to announce some new features we added over the last few weeks. But before I do, let me point out that Fate Reforged Prices are now live!

(Fate Reforged Foil Prices are live too!)

If you visit one of the links above and are logged in, you may notice another column (you did sign up, right? It’s free!), thus:

blog2

The “You Own” column shows up on this page and lets you see how many of each card you own. Right now that’s zero, but if you click on the link, you can edit this to any number. This was a heavily requested feature for the “My Collection” tool and it’s now ready for everyone – no more entering card names manually, just visit the set page and go through your binder card by card.

Speaking of My Collection, the filters now let you sort your collection by one or more sets, so if you want to see all Blue Alpha and Beta cards over $10 that you own, just click “Filter” and then select these requirements.

blog3

That “Save Filter” thing at the bottom is a new ProTrader feature – I’ll get to it in a moment.

Next up is our new MULTI-COLLECTION feature – something that has been repeatedly requested. Now, instead of just storing everything you own in My Collection and everything you want in the Wishlist, you can make arbitrary collections like “long-term specs”, “short-term specs”, “Modern Delver Deck” and “Cards I loaned Larry last week”. This feature is fairly basic right now but you can see all the same data as in :My Collection” which means you can see things like current price, best buylist price, how much the price changed since yesterday/ last week, etc.

To create a new multi-collection, just click the “My Collection” drop-down and then “+create new list”. You can also choose any of the multi-collections you’ve previously created here – I’ve made one called “Specs”, for example:

blog4

The final free upgrade for this week is simple yet a long time coming: the Fair Trade Price for many older cards is now significantly more accurate. For a while (due to a lack of mint-condition copies for sale), the price of a mint Alpha Tundra was around $4. Now it’s a much more accurate $3000.

Does this stuff all sound useful? Great! Sign up for free and you can track your collection’s value over time, get weekly “mtgfinance” news and much more!

We also added several new features for ProTrader, our $4.99 subscription service. I already discussed these features and what we’re working on next at length in the ProTrader-only forums but as a preview, this weeks features were:

  1. “Save filters” – remember that image up above where you could filter your collection? ProTrader’s have the ability to save as many of these filters as they wish and access them with a single click. This gets useful when you have a large collection, since you can quickly check to see which modern-legal commons over $1 that you own, or see how your complete set of Alpha changed in price since a week ago. This is especially useful to those ProTraders that own a store or deal online and need a fast pricing tool for their current inventory.
  2. Clicking the “wrench” icon near the top-right will let you add many new data sources to your collection. Everyone has access to a few extra sources (for example, best buylist price and who is offering it) but ProTraders can customize the list extensively so they see (for example) the ChannelFireball and ABU price of every card in their collection automatically. Everything saves so that you don’t need to set them every time.
  3. For those ProTraders with complete sets, an “Add complete set” lets you add one copy of every card in a set with a single click.

We’ve posted a detailed roadmap of ProTrader features on the forums. If you’re a ProTrader you can read the roadmap here.

If you’re NOT a ProTrader and are interested in what being one gets you, click this link and then click “Tell me more”.

We have a LOT of new features planned, both for ProTraders and free users. If you have any specific requests, please post them in the comments below!

 

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Dragon Sickness

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By Guo Heng Chin

I’m not going to lie. I have dragon sickness. I have an unhealthy obsession with my foil collection, I spend an inordinate amount of time procrastinating by checking out high end foils at the High End Magic Stuff for Sale Facebook group and every time I see an expensive foil can’t help but go full-Smaug:

From The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (2013) by Peter Jackson
From The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (2013) by Peter Jackson

I may not have amassed a collection of shiny trinkets at the level of Smaug’s but I do love my foils. I think most Magic players have some sort of affinity for foils, or at least a good portion of those I am personally acquainted with. Besides the fact that foils exact a higher collectibility and price, we humans seem to be attracted to shimmery objects and there is a whole industry dedicated to purveying shiny rocks and metals. Well, at least Magic players know their shiny trinkets could provide more value beyond being aesthetically pleasing; you can’t tap a gold ring for mana or use it as your Commander.

From a financier’s perspective, there are reasons to favor foils over non-foils in terms of investment potential:

Foils Are Forever

I wrote an article about the shifting paradigm for speculating Modern cards two weeks ago and a few readers asked about the security of Modern foils as an investment with Modern staples being reprinted across a wide array of Magic products from Thoughtseize and Chord of Calling in normal sets, Remand and Wurmcoil Engine in supplementary products and Modern Masters is now an annual or biannual phenomenon. Every expensive card that is a staple in the format is at risk of reprint.

Investing in foils is a way to hedge your bets against reprints. Compared with non-foil copies of a card, foil copies suffer a smaller price drop when the card is reprinted.  Lorwyn Thoughtseize was trending at $60 – $70 prior to being reprinted in Theros. You can buy one today at $35 a piece, even though the Theros reprint featured a different art. Foil copies of Lorwyn Thoughtseize took a hit from $200 to $175 when Theros reprints came out, and a further drop down to $100 last November, presumably due to the increased supply of foil Thoughtseizes in the market from foil redemptions (Magic Online redemption is available a month after a set is released on Magic Online).

Carpe diem.
Carpe diem.

However as of writing, a little more than a year after Thoughtseize was reprinted, a foil Lorwyn Thoughtseize now commands a hefty price tag of $240, higher than its pre-reprint price.

Normal versions of Ravnica Chord of Calling lost nearly five times its value from $40 to $9, whereas foil copies barely budged in price. Even foil Ravnica Lighting Helix which took a price dip when it was reprinted in Modern Masters back in 2013, rallied up to a price higher than its pre-Modern Masters price.  Speaking of Modern Masters, foil Morningtide Vendilion Clique and foil Ravnica Dark Confidant followed the same trend when they were reprinted in Modern Masters. Though those cards were not the ideal comparison for the fact that they were reprinted as a mythic in a limited print run product, they illustrate the price durability of foil Modern staples.

The risk of reprint is further mitigated by the fact that supplementary products rarely contain foils. When Wurmcoil Engine was reprinted in Commander 2014, the non-foil Scars of Mirrodin version lost around 50% of its value, dipping from $26 – $30 to $13 – $15. Foil Wurmcoil Engine only suffered a 25% loss in value, probably due to the fact that there were no foils in Commander 2014.

Let’s look at another Modern staple:

Remand (Ravnica)

Deja vu.
Deja vu.

Compare the price trajectory between the non-foil version and the foil version; there was barely a drop in price for the foil version when Jace vs Vraska injected new copies of Remand into the market in March 2014.

Dizzying Heights

Foils have a lot more room for appreciation compared with non-foils. This effect is more pronounced in foil commons and uncommons that see play in Modern and Legacy. Compare the spike between normal and foil copies of Forked Bolt:

Forked Bolt

Killing Delver of Secrets, Young Pyromancers and the occasional opponent since October 2014.
Killing Delver of Secrets, Young Pyromancers and the occasional opponent since October 2014.

While a profit margin exists for speccing on commons and uncommons, its not as lucrative as speccing on mythics. Common and uncommon speculation is a low risk speculation; you do not put in much and do not win or lose much. Think of speccing on foil playable commons and uncommons as speccing on playable mythics. There is a higher entry price, but you stand to make more.

Foiling Out on the Cheap

Hopefully by this part of the article, I have convinced you that foils are better investments than those plebeian non-foils. However, we all know that foils are more expensive than non-foils.

I am in the midst of a multi-year journey to foil out my Modern and Commander decks and there are a few financial pointers I’ve picked along the way which may be of use to other collectors/players/dragons seeking to foil out their decks without breaking their bank account or just acquire foils for investment at a low enough price to see a profit.

Buy Foils When They Are Cheap

I know, it sounds like a protip. But it is one of those tips that are easier said than done. How many people got their foil Forked Bolts or foil Gitaxian Probes before those cards spiked? I know I did not. Signals were present prior to those cards spiking: Gitaxian Probe was a small-third-set card that was present as a playset across multiple archetypes in Modern and Legacy, but its foils were still selling for single digits up till March 2014. Forked Bolt was a UR Delver staple on Magic Online prior to its spike. Another common foil, Delver of Secrets dropped to $2 when Innistrad rotated, even though RUG Delver was already an established tier one Legacy deck.

Get in on foil common and uncommon staples in Modern and Legacy while they are still hovering around the middle of the single digit price zone, and if they are not at a risk of reprint in the short run. Mutagenic Growth is seeing play in Modern beyond Infect thanks to Shahar Shenhar’s Burn at the 2014 World Championship which ran four copies of Mutagenic Growth. While foil Mutagenic Growth is hovering at $5, I am not not inclined to buy it with Modern Masters 2015 around the corner. Foil Lingering Souls, on other other hand, seems like a good buy at $6 each, especially the FNM version which is going for just $2.43.

Getting into foils when they are cheap is not as easy as it sounds for the fact that most foil Modern and Legacy staples are already expensive. It feels counterintuitive to buy foil Abrupt Decay at $25 back in early 2013 as it was a card from a large set that was still being opened, or at $35 when it rotated out of Standard in the fall of 2014. Those were probably the best time to get your foil Abrupt Decays; today you would need to fog up $75 for one.

The only reason I have foil Steam Vents in my Modern decks is my decision in the middle of March 2014 to finally buy my playset of foil Steam Vents at $25 after weeks of deliberation. $25 for a foil rare from a large, bestselling fall set (every fall set seems to set new sales record these days) felt steep when I hovered over the confirm payment button. Two weeks later foil Steam Vents spiked to $45 – $50. Apparently, I bought one of the last playsets of foils Steam Vents that were available at $25 apiece.

That anecdote is not a humblebrag; it encapsulates a dilemma in finding the optimal time to pick up foil Modern or Legacy staples. There is always a lingering doubt if the price of a foil staple is already at its peak when its price is so high. The key is to override that doubt with good reasoning backed by solid data.

Abrupt Decay was played as multiples in a multitude of tier one archetypes in Modern and Legacy. Was $20 – $25 an appropriate price to pay for a top-notch eternal staple?  Steam Vents was the most-played shockland in Modern and third most ubiquitous card in Modern when I bought foil copies of it at $25 (it is now the most-played land and second most-ubiquitous card in Modern).

Evaluate the price of Modern and Legacy foils proportional to the amount of play they are seeing. I bought my foil Delvers at $2 when Innistrad was still legal with the reasoning that there was no way a Legacy staple with Modern potential (back then Modern Delver had no boats to ride to valueland) could be below $5.

I agree with Cliff Daigle in his article last December where he mentioned that now is an excellent time to pick up foil Khans of Tarkir fetchlands. If foil copies of shocklands, which only is played one or two (at most three) copies in Modern decks (or as a poor Commander player’s duals) could fetch up to $40 – $50 apiece, is it possible that fetchlands, which are played three to four copies in every single format they are legal in are worth just $50? Is $85 – $90 too much for the blue ones when a foil Scalding Tarn is $182? If you are looking to assemble your foil playset of the Khans of Tarkir fetches, now is a good time to start.

However, if you are unwilling to pay so much for your Khans of Tarkir fetches, there is a way to get around it. Perfectly legal, I assure you.

Redemption

Yes, Magic Online is still bad. It still have a UX that harks back to the early 2000s. Besides being the sole place where you can get in as many reps on your deck as with bench-pressing at the gym (no way I can get 50 reps on my Jeskai Tokens playing four-round FNMs once per week) and where you can draft without wearing pants, Magic Online is useful to get foils on the cheap via redemption.

Magic Online allows you to manifest the intangible, digital cards you own into physical cardboard by putting in a redemption order when you have one of every card in the set you are redeeming. Basically if I have a non-foil copy of every 284 cards in Khans of Tarkir (284 is 269 plus fifteen basic lands as each version of the basic lands counts as a different card) and I purchase a normal Khans of Tarkir Redemption Request at the Magic Online Store, during the next downtime the 284 cards will be removed from my Magic Online account and physical copies of those cards will be sent to me. Pretty nifty isn’t it?

Redemption is available for both non-foils and foils. If I have a foil copy of each Khans of Tarkir card on Magic Online, I could purchase a Premium Khans of Tarkir Redemption  Request, have those cards removed from my Magic Online account and a bunch of shiny Khans of Tarkir singletons delivered to my doorstep.

The cost of redemption is:

Total value of the set on Magic Online + Handling Fee ($25) + Shipping ($2.99 for delivery within the United States, $29.99 for international delivery)

The handling and shipping costs are set in stone, so the only variable is the total value of the set on Magic Online. There are plenty of reliable bot chains to buy singles from on Magic Online, but the one I use the most is GoatBots as they have one of the most user-friendly website to check prices, good availability and very competitive pricing.  As of writing, GoatBots is selling a foil set of Khans of Tarkir mythics and rares for $341. The price of foil commons, uncommons and basic lands fluctuates, but they usually cost around $90 in total. That makes it $431 to assemble a foil set of Khans of Tarkir on Magic Online.

Cost of redeeming a foil set of Khans of Tarkir as of writing:

$431 + $25 + $29.99 (I live in Malaysia) = $485.99

Let’s compare the cost of redeeming a foil set of Khans of Tarkir with the cost to assemble a foil set of Khans of Tarkir in real life. MTGPrice.com has a useful Browse Sets feature (shameless plug) to view the price of all the cards in a set in a list, including foil sets. According to the foil Khans of Tarkir list, the price of a physical set of Khans of Tarkir is $860.34. Redeeming a set alone saves you a whooping $374.35 and that is with the extra $27 for international delivery.

The price of collecting a foil copy of each Khans of Tarkir fetchland in real life is $322.81. Let’s say you redeemed a foil Khans of Tarkir set at $485.99 just for the fetches  and you sold off all the other foils worth $5 or more according to the MTGPrice.com list for a total of $323.06 (the redeemed set includes high value foil mythics and foil Monastery Swiftspear and Treasure Cruise. Oh and also a foil Dig Through Time which I hear is worth quite a bit). That means you have acquired your foil fetches for a mere $162.93, or just $33 per foil fetch, which is a steal considering that foil Polluted Delta and foil Flooded Strand each costs around $85 and the rest $50. Beat that, eBay. Oh, the redeemed foils are about as near mint as they could be – the redeemed cards come in a factory-sealed box.

From my experience, I found that playable foils are generally in high demand and relatively easy to move. You would still be getting your foil fetches much cheaper than market price if you liquidate your foils worth $5 or more at 70% the MTGPrice.com fair trade price, which is already an aggregated price.

I hope you readers and fellow foil collectors have found this article informative, and a way to hoard more shimmering trinkets without breaking your bank. Or vault, if you’re a dragon.

 

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WEEKLY MTGPRICE.COM MOVERS: JAN 12TH/15

4 Comments

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Here’s your weekly update on what’s been shifting around in price in the world of paper Magic: The Gathering this week.

5 Winners of the Week

1. Soul of Theros (M15, Mythic): $1.97 to 3.76 (+91%)

Overlooked summer set mythics are a good place to be if they suddenly find a home in standard at the top tables. Soul of Theros has been earning his bones for weeks now, as a top of curve finish assister in a 4-color Whip of Erebos brew that makes Siege Rhino’s and Hornets look very threatening indeed. The deck often runs the full 4 copies, because many of them end up in the graveyard where they ride the train straight to value town. If the fever spreads, the top end on this is likely around $5-6 but with how often the Standard metagame has been shifting this season, I wouldn’t count on it. If you had pack copies or copies you got under $2 sitting around, trading out for other staples is perfectly reasonable at this point.

Format: Standard/EDH

Verdict: Sell/Trade

2. Choke (8th Edition, Rare): $4.09 to $6.34 (+55%)

With the dominance of U/R Delver brews in specific and blue cards in general throughout Legacy and Modern over the last year, interest in Choke as a solid sideboard answer that slows their game to a crawl has been building. The card has only been printed twice, in Tempest and 8th edition, so it’s possible it will show up Modern Masters (2015) at rare, but otherwise this has a decent shot at pushing $10 within the next year or two given that blue shows no signs of ever giving up the trophy for most powerful color in magic.

Format(s): Modern/Legacy

Verdict: Hold

3. Hooded Hydra (Khans of Tarkir, Mythic): $1.66 to $2.07 (+25%)

It’s not clear whether Manifest is actually a standard playable mechanic, or even which colors it would use as accents, but if the deck proves to be real, Hooded Hydra is almost certain to be a big part of it. The key is that Hydra can flip up from manifesting as a 5/5 for GG, (possibly larger depending on how it ended up manifested in the first place), and then leave behind 1/1 tokens when it dies equal to it’s power and toughness. That’s a minimum of 10 P&T for a bargain basement price, and the scenario it presents is removal/sweeper resistant. Folks are clearly brewing, and the previously ignored KTK mythic now has a shot at mid-season glory. If it makes a key deck tech or a top table this month, expect it to hit $5-6 in a hurry but success is nothing more than a guess at this point so don’t sleep on the info if you choose to go deep. Personally, I think this card will get there sooner or later, so I’ve got about 20 copies sitting around acquired under $1.50.

Format: Standard/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Speculative Buy

4. Sliver Hive (M15, Rare): $2.19 to $2.54 (+16%)

The Sliver tribe has been enjoying a resurgence since the plethora of new options printed in M15 last summer, with both Galerider Sliver and Sliver Hive already having made some folks some solid money along the way. Sliver Hive peaked around $5 in late summer on casual demand, sliding back later last fall on KTK hype season disinterest. As less M15 is opened however, the card is selling out here and there, and steady casual demand should easily push it back towards $5 within the year, and $10 within 2-3. It’s also worth noting that Counter-Slivers is a very real Tier 2 deck in Legacy and the deck runs 4 copies of this card as a rainbow land with no penalty and bonus token making upside. This is a great long-term spec in every scenario that doesn’t include Commander 2016 or 2017 being tribal based with a Slivers deck.

Format(s): Legacy/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Buy/Hold

5. Jeskai Ascendancy (KTK, Rare): $2.58 to $2.96 (+15%)

Jeskai Ascendancy has been a pillar of the 2014-2015 standard format since it’s debut, and the card still has myriad applications in both tempo and combo decks across Standard, Modern and Casual so long as it stays un-banned, which seems likely at this point. It hit a natural low in December and should now oscillate between $2.50-4 heading into summer, being somewhat held down by the value of fetchlands in Khans of Tarkir. Long term, if left legal in Modern and Legacy the foils only get better as specs as more combo pieces get printed, so that’s where I’ve been stashing some cash.

Format(s): Standard/Modern/Legacy

Verdict: Buy (Foils)

 

5 Top Losers of the Week

1. Temple of Malice (Theros, Rare): $3.61 to $3.07 (-15%)

Red/black dual lands are like the ugly cousin no one will ask to the dance. Without a deck in Standard that centres on black and red cards, and with little hope of play in older formats, this Theros temple is banking on little more than EDH demand for single copies. Get out of any extras, you only need these to play at the kitchen table and they’ll be $1.50 by mid-summer.

Format(s): EDH/Casual

Verdict: Sell

2. Anger of the Gods (Theros, Rare): $2.52 to $2.92 (-14%)

This underrated sweeper is at an interesting crossroads where the fact that it’s edging up on Standard rotation is facing off against steadily increasing relevance in a format that looks like it will enter spring dominated by token decks and the mid-range decks that battle them. I’d prefer to steer clear of extra non-foils and instead pursue foils on the basis that the card may stay relevant in Modern for a long while as a 1-2 copy main or sideboard role player against the low casting cost value/aggro decks.

Format(s): Standard/Modern

Verdict: Sell (Buy Foils)

3. Ashcloud Phoenix (KTK, Mythic): $4.36 to $3.82 (-12%)

Between Shaman of the Great Hunt, Alesha, Who Smiles at Death, Mantis Rider and Flamewake Phoenix, red decks are going to have a cornucopia of options for mid-game threats to present. Until we know which builds are most effective at hitting the Top 8 of the big tourneys, I don’t want anything to do with a card like this that many players have already turned away from in many builds even before Fate Reforged goes legal.

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Sell

4. Goblin Guide (Zendikar, Rare): $19.98 to $17.83 (-11%)

This is a great card and a major staple in both Modern in Legacy, but it’s near the front of the line to get reprinted in Modern Masters (2015) this summer so it’s time to get out if you’re not playing your copies and get back in on some $10 versions in June.

Verdict: Sell

5. Sorin, Solemn Visitor (KTK, Mythic): $18.62 to $16.67 (-10%)

As with Sarkhan last week, this is a great Standard card with plenty of life left, just moving through a normal price cycle and probing natural lows. I’m interested in picking up copies in the $12-13 range if we get there as the regal vampire lord could easily hit $20+ again next fall. If there’s something to be learned from the trajectories of other mid-game ‘walkers like Kiora, Ajani, and Xenagos, it’s that they’re value is highly dependent on the metagame of the day. For now, I rate him a hold, but I wouldn’t go deep on him above $10.

Verdict: Hold

Quick Hits:

  • Contrary to the reactionary thoughts of many a player, Black Lotus and the Power 9 are holding their newly acquired higher price tags set after GPNewJersey across the industry. Lowest TCG on an SP Unlimited Black Lotus is now $4999, and StarCityGames is back to offering $4500 buylist on them. If they keep moving at these levels, I think that the whole group may test new highs in 2015 5-10% higher.
  • (Repeat) January 19th, 2015 is the next Banned & Restricted list announcement and banning of any or all of the following could make big waves and open up new specs: Treasure Cruise, Dig Through Time, Jeskai Ascendancy, Birthing Pod. Getting rid of all of the above in Modern opens up the format a ton, and it’s possible Cruise gets the axe as far back as Legacy. I don’t want to be caught holding many copies of that card in foil, so I’ve been selling out, but the rest I’ve decided to risk. Make your call and get ready for the fallout. Jan 12th Update: Birthing Pod took down GPOmaha today, but the top 8 and the field were diverse and interesting. If WOTC was looking for signals from this GP, Pod may be safe, and Treasure Cruise didn’t look any more dominant than would be bearable.
  • (Repeat) Likely MM2 reprints aren’t falling nearly as fast as they should be and I think too many people are underestimating the print run this time around. Get out while you can…these aren’t cards you want to be holding come June.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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