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WEEKLY MTGPRICE.COM MOVERS: JAN 25TH/15

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

This weekend Fate Reforged made a huge and immediate impact on both Standard and Modern, with cards from the set showing up at top tables of major tournaments immediately upon going legal. Most of our other gainers come as the result of the recent Banned & Restricted announcements which have shaken up both Modern and Legacy. Here’s the down low on the major price shifts in the world of paper Magic: The Gathering this week.

5 Winners of the Week

1. Worldgorger Dragon (Judgement, Rare): $1.25 to $8.30 (564%)

When a combo card of relatively high power gets unbanned, the Legacy folks start brewing and trying to figure out if the card can take a deck into a Top 8. Worldgorger Dragon figures into multiple combos, many of which revolve around it coming in and out of play under the effect of Animate Dead while setting off infinite triggers of one sort or another. The card is certainly breakable, but no more powerful than the stuff that Sneak & Show and Reanimator decks already do in Legacy. Nevertheless, going from useless to potentially playable was enough to send this ancient rare skyrocketing on the price charts. Without a doubt this is a sell if you had a bunch sitting around. It’s hard to beat 500% in a week more than a few times a year, and this is definitely time to take your money and run it into some new action.

Format(s): Legacy

Verdict: Sell

2. Golgari Grave Troll (Ravnica: City of Guilds, Rare): $1.45 to $7.00 (+383%)

Here we have another card that was unbanned, this time in Modern, and in this case because the odds of it breaking format are low without some of the older cards it would need to be truly degenerate. Nevertheless, enterprising souls are a-brewing, so the getting is good if you’d like to get out on your sets up 300%+. I wouldn’t wait on results here, the card’s already been reprinted once (in the Izzet vs. Golgari Duel Deck) and could easily be so again this summer in MM2.

Format(s): Modern/Legacy/Vintage

Verdict: Sell

 

3. Scion of the Ur-Dragon (Time Spiral, Rare): $2.25 to $7.50 (+233%)

A couple of factors are pushing this previously overlooked Dragon up on the charts. Firstly, it’s the only 5-color commander available for the Dragon clan in EDH/Commander. Secondly, we’re just 6 weeks away from a set list for Dragons of Tarkir, a set that promises to, well, provide us with a ton of new dragons to get excited about. I’d put the odds that they either reprint Scion or provide an even better Dragon commander at 2 to 1, so it’s up to you to decide if you feel like trying to ride this card further north into $10-15 range on dragon hype. Me, I like to pocket cash on anything north of 50%, so I’ve already sold the handful of stray copies I found lying around.

Format: Casual/EDH

Verdict: Sell/Speculative Buy

 

4. Frontier Siege (Fate Reforged, Rare): 1.25 to 2.55 (+104%)

This bad boy mana ramp enchantment was #2 on my list of underrated Fate Reforged specs, so I was hardly surprised to see it make top 8 appearances in Standard at two separate major tournaments. With the potential to double your total mana output in the early to mid game OR to turn your hornets and other flying beasties into a virtual wrath of god, the power here is undeniable. The card has so far found good homes with both R/G Monsters and BUG Delve/Whip builds, and I strongly suspect these won’t be the last decks to run the card in the next 18 months. As a rare from a small set that will be drafted 5-2-2 vs. the rest of the block, I think this card can hit $4-6 on heavy play and/or further top table appearances, so there is still some room to set up some profitable trades if you’re local store hasn’t sold out or boosted the price yet Monday morning. Move quick though, because I wouldn’t be surprised to see this settle closer to $4 before the end of the week, at which point your upside is significantly more limited. Foils may also be solid targets for future EDH play, but there isn’t likely to be any Legacy or Modern action here.

Format: Standard/EDH

Verdict: Sell/Trade

 

5. Tasigur, The Golden Fang (Fate Reforged, Rare): $3.75 to $11.00 (+193%)

If you locked on to Tasigur when he appeared at #4 on my list of Fate Reforged specs a couple weeks back you may have been lucky enough to pick up copies in the $2 range. If so, good for you. If not, your ship has likely sailed, as $11 is a very high price for a freshly released standard rare, even one that made such good showings at major tourneys in it’s first week of release. The Prince of Fruit was bananas most of the time he appeared on camera this weekend, pulling double duty as a cheap blocker for Siege Rhino etc, while providing long term card advantage when the board got grindy. It’s not a certainty he’ll make a big splash in older formats, but I wouldn’t bet against it at this point. All that being said, sell into this hype immediately, as he should come back down into the $6-8 range as more product is opened this month and I suspect you’ll be able to find him cheaper around the release of MM2 in June.

Format: Standard/Modern/Legacy/EDH

Verdict: Sell/Trade

3 Top Losers of the Week

1. Bloodbraid Elf (Alara Reborn, Uncommon): $8.00 to $3.50 (-56%)

Well, it’s a broken uncommon that some people thought might be unbanned, but instead it’s been relegated to the bench for the time being. Many pros think the card would be fine in Modern today given the general increase in power creep over the last few years, but that’s not enough to save the card’s price from crashing as disappointment sets in and the unfounded speculations are cashed in for losses. If you’re caught holding, you can ditch for (hopefully) close to what you paid, or just hold on to them hoping for an eventual unban within the year.

Format(s): Casual/Modern (one day?)

Verdict: Sell

2. Orzhov Pontiff (Guildpact, Rare): $16.00 to $12.50 (-22%)

Pontiff was on our list as a top gainer just a few short weeks ago, but the banning of Birthing Pod put it’s primary deck out of commission in Modern and significantly lessened short term demand. I’m holding my copies as I believe that the card has other applications in token and aggro based strategies in Modern. That being said, a reprinting this summer in MM2 isn’t totally out of the question, so be wary.

Format(s): Modern

Verdict: Hold

3. Birthing Pod (New Phyrexia, Rare): $8.15 to $7.07 to (-13%)

Birthing Pod peaked near $20 in March, 2014, right around the time I was snapping them up 2 copies at a time by acquiring the Spiraling Doom, Dark Ascension event deck. I was a bit stunned that Pod got the axe in Modern, since though it was certainly doing well consistently, the format seemed very healthy. This leaves me with about 20 Birthing Pods I’ll be slowly unloading at a small loss to EDH players out of the gutters of my trade binder for the next few years. It’s important to own your mistakes. This was one of my biggest of the year.

Format(s): Standard

Verdict: Sell

Quick Hits:

  • Japanese players have been scooping up foil Frost Walkers like crazy and they may know something others are missing. As a 4/1 for 1U in the best color in the game, there is potential for the the card to revive some kind of blue rush deck in Modern or Legacy.
  • Waste Not deserves an honorable mention this week, up 46% from $2.16 to $3.16.
  • Outpost Siege also made Top 8 tables this weekend, as a stackable card drawing engine and fallback for token strategies. It’s on the increase, but bargains can still be found if you’re quick.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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Day 2 MTGPrice.com Mobile App Update: $8,945 of $10,000 raised!

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(Kickstarter link is here: https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1365447257/magic-the-gathering-mtg-pricing-trading-and-collec)

We’ve almost hit our target and it’s been less than two days from launch!

First, a sincere thank you to everyone who backed us or shared the app on social media: you guys rock!

Since it looks likely that we will hit out target, it’s time to consider some “stretch goals” – extra things we can spend any funds above the $10,000 raised on.

We have five ideas. Most of the ideas will work on both the current website AND the mobile app so feel free to comment even if you don’t plan on using the smartphone version.

1. Add UK/Canada and EU prices and currency. Also add MTGO prices and currency (tix).
2. Add all/almost all foreign printings of cards, along with prices.
3. Support multiple conditions (played/ heavily played etc.)
4. Update prices every 15 to 30 minutes (recent sets only).
5. Add a “camera” option for bulk card upload (take a photo of a stack of card names, import them into your collection).

Your feedback will help us decide on the order in which we do these things to please comment below!

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Help us build the ultimate MTG mobile app!

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Link to our Kickstarter page: https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1365447257/magic-the-gathering-mtg-pricing-trading-and-collec

Hi, I’m Alasdair. I run MTGPrice.com: a site that helps people price, collect and trade Magic cards. I’ve been playing magic since Revised and I’ve played a LOT of tournament magic, including on the Pro Tour (I did terribly 🙂

MTGPrice.com has been around for almost three years and more than 200,000 magic players use it every month to track the value of their collections, look up historical prices, see what cards are currently rising or falling or just to compare prices across different vendors (unlike some other sites that use a single source, we pull prices for everyone from TCGPlayer, eBay and Amazon to ChannelFireball, StrikeZone and ABUGames).

For almost the full three years, people have been asking for us to create an iOS and Android app.  We’ve decided that now is the time to build one.

The thing is, we want the app to be really, really good. We don’t just want to repackage our website and call it an app – we want the thing to be native and fast and slick and wonderful – all the things a really great app should be. Thus, we’ve turned to kickstarted to help us get the cash needed to hire a world-class designer and a developer to help us.

What we’re building

We’re building an Android and iOS app with the following features:

1. Fast price lookup with autocomplete. Shows our “Fair Trade Price”, current price at a bunch of stores, historical price graph. We pull prices from many difference sources, not just a single site.

The premium version of the app will also show buylist prices (the cash price a vendor will pay you).

This is our core use-case: the idea is that you’ll be able to pull out your phone and know the price and price history of a card (in any printing) in under five seconds.

2. “My Collection” tool. Track your complete magic collection and its total value. Track the value over time in a graph. See which cards have changed in price recently.

Manage your “wishlist” of cards and receive alerts when we find especially good deals on these cards.

Track multiple collections – perhaps you want to track all the cards you lent a friend, or all the cards in a particular deck.

3. Fair Trade Wizard. Trading with someone at a GP? Just pull out the MTGPrice.com App and you can tally up each side of the trade. The premium version of the app (which you’ll receive if you back us) also has an option to show buylist prices of every card in the trade.

We don’t stop there. The Fair Trade Wizard will log this trade for you, automatically updating your collection and wishlists. It will also let you review these trades in the future so you can see if you’re making good trades over time.

4. Trade Matcher. Want to trade with another app user? Just enter their username (or scan a QR code) and be told all of the things someone wants from you and what you can give them.

The MTGPrice.com app will work out the best possible trade between the two of you, taking into account every single card you have for trade and every card in your wishlist.

The premium version (which all backers receive) will also let you mark specific cards as high or low priority so you can ensure you get those above all others.

5. Trade Locator. Find everyone in the area with the MTGPrice.com App and arrange trades with them!

Imagine being at a GP with four thousand people in the room. You need a foil Snapcaster Mage but can’t find anyone with one to trade. Hit the “Trade Locator” button and see everyone with trades nearby. Type in a card and see any users with that specific card for trade.

(Of course, you can disable this feature whenever you don’t feel like trading.)

6. Price alerts. We’ll give you an alert if a card on your wishlist or in your collection sees a price movement past a particular threshold. We’ll also tell you which cards you don’t own are currently hot and which are drifting downwards.

7. ProTrader features. MTGPrice.com has a service (currently $4.99/month) that provides a TON of extra features for people with larger collections. For example, you can view historical inventory graphs for specific vendors, get daily alert emails showing trending cards and use advanced tools to find the best deals available form each store. (You can read more about ProTrader here: http://www.mtgprice.com/protraderSignup.jsp)

As part of the app, we’ll have additional ProTrader features available for subscribers, including in-app price alerts.

Important Notes

REALLY IMPORTANT: The first $10K will fund an ANDROID version of the app. The next $5K (if we manage to raise it in a stretch goal) will fund concurrent iOS development. If we don’t raise $15K, we will still build the iOS app using our own funds but it will be delayed until the Android app is complete.

Additionally, we have a whole bunch of stretch goals in mind if we can raise above the $15K needed for both platforms. Specifically, we’ll support international vendors, multiple currencies, different card conditions (only NM-M for now), hundreds of different vendors and faster price updates (currently we update daily). We’ll go into more detail if it looks like these stretch goals are reasonable.

Anyway, what are you waiting for? Help us build the most amazing MTG App in the world!

Link to our Kickstarter page: https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1365447257/magic-the-gathering-mtg-pricing-trading-and-collec

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Geist in a Post-Pod World: Jeskai Geist Pickups

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By Guo Heng Chin

As the clock struck 8 a.m. PST yesterday, the banhammer fell. In a mighty swoop, not one, nor two, but three cards in Modern became casualties in the latest round of DCI banned and restricted announcement. It was a banning on a scale we have not seen for years, taking out two dominating Modern archetype and resetting the power level of the format to pre-Khans of Tarkir level.

Granted, concessions were made. The good ol’ grave troll were released from the DCI’s prison, but part of me wished that Wizards released the Troll just to indicate that the banned and restricted announcement was just one big trolling attempt.

In the veins of Deathrite Shaman‘s ban last February, yesterday’s banned and restricted announcement aimed at shaking up the Modern format in anticipation of the upcoming Modern Pro Tour in Washington, DC. The ripples of this year’s bannings will definitely be felt as two tier one incumbents were nudged off their seats in the Council of Tier One Modern Decks. Coupled with the unbanning of a popular card, the financial implications could span across a multitude of cards. Travis Allen (@wizardbumpin) would be discussing the changes in his article tomorrow. My article today will focus on a few cards I am very familiar with, a few cards which in my opinion, stand to be the biggest winners of the latest round of bannings. Those cards are related to a particular archetype that was marginalised in the post-Khans Modern landscape.

The Ghost of Jeskai Past

UWR Geist, or Jeskai Geist as the nomenclature goes in 2015 was the first successful tempo deck in Modern. The archetype debut on Magic Online when Larry Swasey, better known as Krazykirby4 on Magic Online took down a Magic Online PTQ in the middle of January 2013 with an innovative new brew. It was at the height of Jund’s dominance, shortly before Bloodbraid Elf fell under the banhammer. To put it in Larry’s own words, that deck was a monster, and it propelled both Larry and his friend Brandon Large who was running the same list, to the finals of that said PTQ. It was a deck capable of attacking efficiently on multiple angles, a hallmark of good modern-day decks as Gerry Thompson encapsulated recently in a very insightful article.

UWR Jeskai Geist garnered widespread attention a week later when Mitchell Manders took down Grand Prix Bilbao with a 75 that was mostly similar to Larry’s masterpiece, dispatching a Jund piloted by the formidable Lukas Jaklovsky. Jeskai Geist was inducted  into the hallowed halls of tier one Modern decks. One does not simply disregard a deck that could take on pre-nerf Jund, the fairest of fair decks, in one-on-one combat.

Unfortunately that was exactly what happened. Jeskai Geist faded into obscurity, only to surface again a year later when Vjeran Horvat won Grand Prix Prague with Jeskai Geist in January 2014. Jeskai Geist proponents rejoiced.

I may not be a strategy writer; heck even my strategy credentials are lacking – I do not even have a single PTQ top 8 under my belt. However, I have been playing Jeskai Geist in real life and online pretty much since Larry Swasey took down the Magic Online PTQ in January 2013, and it was my go-to Modern deck up to the point when UR Delver upstarted it thanks to Treasure Cruise. I like to think I have a decent grasp on Jeskai Delver; at least good enough to 4-0 a couple of Modern Dailies. And I like to think that Jeskai Geist was one of the biggest winners from yesterday’s banned and restricted announcement.

Prior to Khans of Tarkir, Jeskai Geist was the de facto tempo deck in Modern. After Treasure Cruise entered the metagame, Jeskai Geist found it difficult to compete with UR Delver’s raw speed and ability to refuel with Ancestral Recall (though Jeff Hoogland did top 4 a StarCityGames Modern 5K with an updated Jeskai Geist list that incorporated two copies of Dig Through Time). When Deathrite Shaman was banned in February 2014, the tier one deck that became the hardest matchup for Jeskai Geist was Birthing Pod.

While Jeskai Geist could trade resources on parity with Pod decks, a resolved Birthing Pod often pushed the game out of reach, more so in game one where Jeskai Geist does not have an answer to a resolved Birthing Pod. To make matters worse, Pod decks could sneak a Birthing Pod under Jeskai Geist’s Mana Leak or Remand on turn two if the Pod deck is on the play. Or catch a Jeskai Geist pilot unaware during game one.

Birthing Pod was one of the toughest matchups for Jeskai Geist back when I was grinding Modern Daily Events. With Birthing Pod out of the equation, Jeskai Geist has a good chance to be very well positioned in the metagame. How about Siege Rhino? Siege Rhino is not too much of an issue in my opinion. One of the worse things you could do against Jeskai Geist is attempt to resolve high casting cost spells. Jeskai Geist capitalises on tempo and it is a huge tempo swing for Geist to Remand or Leak a four mana spell, or even just Path to Exile it.

Hopefully by now I have made a convincing argument that Jeskai Geist is the Next Big Thing New Old Big Thing. Let’s have a look at the key components of Jeskai Geist with financial potential.

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Spirited Away

The Geist of Jeskai Past, soon to be the Geist of Jeskai Present.
The Geist of Jeskai Past, soon to be the Geist of Jeskai Present.

Geist of Saint Traft is sitting at $14. Let that sink in for a while. $14 is pretty much the lowest ol’ Saint Traft’s spirit has ever been. Geist is probably the frontrunner for potential financial winners from the 19th January Banned and Restricted announcement. Geist barely escaped an upcoming reprint in Modern Masters 2015 and was last year’s WMCQ participation promo. It is highly unlikely to see a Geist of Saint Traft reprint in the near future.

At $14, Geist of Saint Traft can only go up in price. He is already $21 on Magic Online and has started to trend up since the announcement. My speculator’s ears always perk up when I see a digital card being significantly more expensive than its paper counterpart. $14 is a sweet price to pick up a mythic that is a four-of in a potential tier one Modern deck, and also offers hexproof against near-term reprints.

Heavenly Creatures

Dealing out heavenly justice since 2010.
Dealing out heavenly justice since 2010.

A beauty in the design of Jeskai Geist is the deck’s ability to play both aggro and control roles efficiently. An early Geist of Saint Traft closed games in a quick fashion in tandem with Restoration Angel and the occasional Thundermaw Hellkite. An early Geist backed by a flurry of removals and burn does the job too. After all, Geist was considered to be an honorary red card by no other than Burn maestro Patrick Sullivan. Shall the draws or the matchup demanded that Jeskai Geist plays the long game, the deck could trade removals and out-card advantage the opponent while Celestial Colonnade slowly chipped away at the opponent’s life total, four at a time.

While Colonnade is the other four-of win condition in Jeskai Geist, it is not a good pickup at $18, even though it has been trending down. Celestial Colonnade has a near-certain probability of being reprinted in Modern Masters 2015. I would steer clear of Celestial Colonnade.

Geist of Saint Traft's other angel. He was quite the Casanova.
Geist of Saint Traft’s other angel. He was quite the Casanova.

The price of Restoration Angel continues to baffle me. The Swiss Army knife of an angel is still a sub-$10 card despite the amount of play she saw in Modern. She was found in all iterations of Pod, in Death and Taxes and also the occasional UWr Flash. Restoration Angel is one of the most versatile value creatures in Modern: she resets your Kitchen Finks, protects your Geist of Saint Traft, rebuys Snapcaster Mage and a plethora of other creatures with enter-the-battlefield effects. Not to mention she combos with Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker for infinite angels and is a formidable beater by herself, being a 3/4 flying creature with flash.

I suspect Restoration Angel’s price will suffer a bit of a dip due to the Pod ban if Pod’s value shell proved to be unviable in a post-Pod world. If that scenario happens, it would probably be a short-lived dip as Restoration Angel is not going to be in Modern Masters 2015. Restoration Angel has the versatility to fit easily in plenty of other archetypes and it would only be a matter of time before another archetype picks her up from where Pod left off (on top of the archetypes that are currently running Restoration Angel).

$8 feels too low for a card this powerful and versatile and is unlikely to be reprinted soon. Even if you do not plan to spec on her, it might be prudent to pick up your own playset while she is at $8.

Mother of Dragons

The mother of dragons. Well, the mother of playable dragons.
The mother of dragons. Well, the mother of playable dragons.

Thundermaw Hellkite was the ideal curve-topper for Jeskai Geist and Jund back when Lingering Souls was running rampant in Modern. Jeff Hoogland eschewed Thundermaw for Stormbreath Dragon and Vjeran Horvat mentioned about replacing Thundermaw with another Restoration Angel or Cryptic Command in his post-Khans of Tarkir list that narrowly missed top 8 at Grand Prix Milan. Thundermaw’s position in the deck and the Modern metagame is meta-dependent. If Lingering Souls sees a resurgence in the new meta, Thundermaw would once again be the five-drop king of the sky.

I would not recommend buying as many Thundermaw Hellkites as you can at $9.46. It is quite possible to see Thundermaw reprinted in Magic 2016. It is the perfect foil to Hornet Queen and could appear as a pre-planned safety valve in Magic 2016. Keep an eye on Thundermaw; it might be worth moving in on Thundermaw at under $10 if Lingering Souls is widely played in the upcoming Modern Pro Tour, but don’t spec too many copies or sit on it for too long due to its short-term reprint risk.

Card Advantage is King

The leading cause of unintentional draws.
The leading cause of unintentional draws.

Both Jeff Hoogland’s list and Vjeran Horvat’s list ran two copies of Dig Through Time as late game card advantage trumps. With Dig Through Time out of the game, Jeskai Geist will probably revert to the old faithful, Sphinx’s Revelation.  Sphinx’s Revelation is a good pickup at $6. It is a Modern playable mythic that is unlikely to be reprinted in the near-to-medium-term as Return to Ravnica rotated out less than half a year ago.

Snapcaster tried his best to do an impersonation of Yawgmoth's Will. He really did.
Snapcaster tried his best to do an impersonation of Yawgmoth’s Will. He really did.

In the midst of the furore of yesterday’s shocker of an announcement (don’t pretend you were not suprised too), Snapcaster Mage nearly slipped my mind, until Redditor and moderator of the mtgmarketwatch subreddit /u/mtd14 reminded me that Snapcaster is among the winners from the bannings. I could not agree more. Snapcaster’s numbers suffered a decline in the wake of Treasure Cruise, because jamming Ancestral Recalls is plainly better than pseudo-Yawgmoth’s Wills.

Now that we can’t Ancestral Recall in Modern anymore, Snapcaster Mage will probably be present in higher numbers again. A Jeskai Geist resurgence would also increase the demand of Snapcaster Mage as the deck runs a full playset of Snapcaster. More importantly, Snapcaster is the most played creature in Modern being present in 31% of Modern decks in 2014 at 3.2 copies, despite Treasure Cruise suppresing his numbers during the recent months. And he is not going to be reprinted in Modern Masters 2015.

$34 is a rather low figure for the most played creature in Modern (and Vintage) with no reprint in sight for the near future. The only real risk of reprint for Snapcaster before the Modern Masters after Modern Masters 2015 is being minted as a Grand Prix promo, but we could rest assured that it won’t happen until at least December 2015, with Griselbrand being the 2015 Grand Prix promo.

Closing Thoughts

Other cards to consider in the wake of yesterday’s announcement:

  • Chord of Calling. Kiki-Chord is a potential direction for Kiki-Pod decks. Chord of Calling is just $3.
  • Domri Rade. Kiki-Pod once ran Domri Rade as an extra value engine. $7 is not cheap, but if he (or she) replaces Pod as the deck’s value engine, I am sure Domri would not be in the realm of single-digit price tag.