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Argument for the Modern Event Deck

By: Jared Yost

Question of Value

From what I’ve been seeing around the internet concerning the Modern event deck, you would think most people would rather go to the dentist than see it printed. I’m going to say this right off the bat – this event deck package is actually pretty decent value.

I know, I must be crazy right? Well, here’s the thing – and I actually didn’t figure this out until I looked it up on the mtgsalvation wiki and confirmed it on Wizard’s website – the thing is that this is not just an event deck. It comes with other things! A spindown life counter, 80 sleeves, and a deck box are also included with this deck. Let’s think about this for a minute.

With all the other event decks you don’t get a package like this. Why? Because those event decks are created for Standard. The people playing Standard already have all of their accessories needed to play that format. New players are entering the market all the time, and they sure aren’t starting with Modern as their format of choice. In a format where $1000+ decks are ruling the Top 8 tables why should they? Standard offers them all they need to get their Magic kick and they are happy just playing that format. The entry point for a decent Standard deck is around $500 if you are going after the singles only and don’t care if they are all in perfectly NM condition and foiled out. Event decks help to fill this gap by providing newer players or even existing players with multiple copies of format staples to make their entrance into Standard that much easier.

What the inclusion of the accessories means is that this event deck was never meant to print $100 bills within a $75 retail package. It was never meant for that Modern player who already has a deck and maybe wanted to branch out into another deck. It was meant for the Modern novice, to understand that Modern exists as a format and that they it doesn’t take much to enter the format if you are willing to play budget versions of decks just like the Standard event decks.

New players to Magic may not even be aware that Modern exists. Wizards really only needs to support Standard. Their support of eternal formats will only work as long as there is a new player already playing Standard and is ready to take the leap to an eternal format. Once they see the event deck and play around with it a bit they will recognize that Modern is a format that is both diverse and rewarding to play. Wizards is just making that connection for the new Standard player by providing them a discount ticket entrance to that format so that they can grab the interest of the few who are willing to make the leap and really jump into the Modern format.

This process has already been started with Modern Masters. Wizards just needed enough time for the set full of reprints to disseminate itself throughout the Magic community in order to drum up more interest in Modern. GP Richmond is a testament to this success story – one of the highest attended constructed events in recent memory, Modern is now on a lot of people’s radars and they are willing to play whatever deck they can get their hands on in order to participate. I know, I was there – plenty of people were playing B/W tokens decks and I even saw one win a GP Trial at the event. Even though it is a “dumb Tier 2 strategy”, many times new arrivals to a format can only afford to play these types of strategies. I know when I first started playing Legacy that the Mono-Red Burn was a very tempting option due to the low barrier to entry. Now that Wizards has solved the problem of the reserved list they can provide event decks for eternal formats, which isn’t something we’ve ever seen before. It is going to take some time for people to understand why Wizards made the choice they did with their first Modern event deck.

From a purely numbers standpoint, I’ve put the entire list including sideboard into the TCGPlayer cart optimizer and this is the approximate value of the deck according to that calcuation (see here for decklist):

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Once we add the other parts of the package to the price

– Spindown Life Counter ~$3
– 80 Sleeves ~$6
– Deckbox ~3.50

All told it comes to about $150 of value. Let’s be honest though, the real value of all the pieces of the deck is going to come down once it is released due to an influx of copies entering the market. I’m betting that the actual value will be closer to $100 when everything is said and done.

The cards included might be disappointing for some, but I have a feeling that if Wizards put too many money cards in the deck it would just be sold at absurdly high prices by retailers in order for them to get the most value out of selling the event deck. Wizards didn’t want it to be expensive for Standard players to enter Modern which is why I feel that did not include many of the cards that I predicted they might in a previous article I had written. Honestly, if retailers creating a price barrier is the reason they didn’t include cards like Marsh Flats, Arid Mesa, Fetid Heath, and Auriok Champion in the deck I would wholeheartedly agree with keeping them out even though including them would have lowered their prices by a good margin.

Let’s Do Something About It

There are plenty of ways of improving the deck and not all of them are very costly. Outside of the mana base the rest of the deck can be upgraded rather easily. Just from a quick glance, I would make the following replacements based on this GP Trial Winning List if I were to buy this deck and take to my store’s Modern night.

Maindeck:
– 2 Soul Warden
– 2 Shrine of Loyal Legions
+ 2 Hero of Bladehold
+ 1 Inquisition of Kozilek
+ 1 Path to Exile
Sideboard:
– 2 Ghost Quarter
+ 2 Torpor Orb

Just making these simple replacements makes the deck a lot more consistent and will help your fight against Pod. The manabase may still need some work in order to accommodate the Hero’s but I think that if we’re playing four Spectral Procession main deck anyways it won’t matter in the majority of cases. It may not be the best deck in the room, but when you’re just starting out you need to utilize the tools that are at your disposal.

If you’re playing Standard, you may already have copies of Brimaz, King of Oreskos and Thoughtseize – these are also fine additions to the deck if you can make them fit. The GP Trial deck utilized two Brimaz rather than Tidehollow Scullers (which can be easily removed if your metagame has a lot of U/W/r players) and opted to play four copies of Thoughtseize and only one copy of Inquisition.

The core of the deck is present right out of the box which is good news for the novice Modern player. I’m sure others may argue with my logic but it won’t take much for a Modern beginner to take this deck and start rolling with it. Even if you were to pick up this event deck now, you could start budgeting for the rare lands and even wait for the inevitable reprint of the fetchlands to help supplement this deck. I think it is a good purchase if you’re in the market for a Modern deck because it also allows you get access to things for Commander like Sword of Feast and Famine and Elspeth, Knight-Errant.

I look forward to see what Wizards can do in the future with the Modern event deck products. Like the Commander products that are now yearly I hope that they will make these Modern event decks a yearly, or even biyearly, release in order to get new players that might only be acquainted with Standard interested in the Modern format. Releasing them on a regular basis will also help current Modern players start accumulating a collection so that they can keep building up their Modern card pool over time. I think having this event deck is healthy for the Modern format and for Magic as a whole and I would totally recommend that this deck should be purchased by the target audience for it – Modern rookies.

Weekend Update for 5/26

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Mishra’s Factory
$66.51 to $76.37 (14.8%)

Mishra’s Factory was the original “man” land. It allowed players to cast Wrath of God and then animate the Factory and attack with a creature in control decks.

It is still used in Legacy as a play set in Pox and Standstill decks.

These decks try to keep the board clear of creatures through heavy disrutpion and get there with lands that can attack.

They have also seen the occasional 3-1 in MODO Legacy dailies.

The rise in popularity of UWR Miracles also has people experimenting with Factories in Stoneblade builds.

I advocate trading into the hype while people are brewing. If you can turn a play set of these into some duel lands I would not look back.

9. Temple of Plenty
$6.00 to $6.91 (15.2%)

Scrylands are more powerful than originally assumed. We have seen pros running twelve scrylands to help smooth draws and fix mana for three color decks.

Temple of Plenty has seen full adoption in Selesnya and Junk builds in Standard.

I think that the scrylands are well positioned for rotation once the shocklands leave Standard.

I would trade for them with emphasis on this, Temple of Malady, Temple of Enlightenment and Temple of Silence.

8. Urza’s Tower
$2.46 to $2.84 (15.5%)

Modern season is quickly approaching.

Putting together the Urzatron is powerful in any format. It can be tough to recover from a turn three Karn Liberated or Wurmcoil Engine.

Different builds can throw out an early Batterskull or Sundering Titan which make it difficult if not impossible for aggressive decks to recover.

If you play the Urzatron in Gruul, Blue, Azorius or other combinations you need to have a play set of each of the three lands.

The biggest thing holding them back is their five printings including Chronicles and Fifth Edition where they were common.

It still think they are good solid holds. Anyone thinking of playing in the Modern format should at least pick up a play set of each to have to play with.

They are not powerful enough to ban and the biggest risk I could see would be further reprints.

7. Winds of Change
$1.86 to $2.15 (15.6%)

Nekusar, the Mindrazer decks continue to be popular and powerful. This is one of the most efficient ways to restock your hand and deal seven damage to each of your opponents.

There are still copies out there for less than a dollar. The spread on this card is less than a dime.

More Mind Seize decks will find their ways to retailers at the rate of two boxes per shipment.

That means more ninety-eight card commander decks than need tuning after True-Name Nemesis and Baleful Strix are sold.

These are still surprisingly easy to trade for and with such a low margin a pretty safe bet.

6. Necropotence (From the Vault: Exiled)
$14.97 to $17.97 (20.0%)

Necropotence is one the most powerful card engines every devised.

It is also one of the most iconic cards Wizards has ever printed.

This is the only foil copy available for Vintage or Cube players.

A lot of people are going to be playing with it in Vintage Masters online.

The beta shows the lowest price of $13 and the highest buylist of $10.

This shows a great deal of confidence in the growth of this card.

This is a great long term hold.

5. Apocalypse
$2.44 to $3.09 (26.6%)

This card is a rare from Tempest. That means there are not many out there. It is also on the reserved list so there will never be any more.

This card has a negative spread. You can buy it from one retailer and sell it to another at a profit.

This is as good a recommendation as I can possibly give.

Grab these any time you see them. They have probably been rotting in trade binders for years.

4. Tendo Ice Bridge
$3.59 to $4.58 (27.6%)

The power and flexibility of this land are considerable when you can reuse the counter using bouncelands and Amulet of Vigor. They are used as three of in that deck.

I have seen this card listed for $5 in a few places and some sites still have them for less than $3.

The beta on this card is only $0.42. That makes this a safe and smart target.

I would actively trade for these. The deck has already caused significant increases in the prices of Azusa, Lost but Seeking and Primeval Titan.

3. Urza’s Miter
$4.87 to $6.45 (32.4%)

This is all smoke.

I don’t think anyone is actually buying this card at this price.

I looked at ebay sales records and it looks like everyone is buying theirs for around $3. The highest buylist I see is $2.51 but most vendors are offering about a dollar less than that.

That tells me that there is not a lot of confidence in the price of this card.

It is an Antiquities rare on the reserved list but it really does not belong in any deck. It is a collector’s item but that does not explain the recent surge in interest it has seen.

Am I missing something here? Does anyone know what started this?

I honestly feel you could buy any early rare on the reserved list and it would be at least as valuable to you as this card.

For about the same amount you can get a Mana Matrix or Planar Gate.

Both of those are about as rare and have awesome applications in Commander or Cube.

2. Nether Shadow
$2.00 to $2.97 (48.5%)

Legacy Manaless Dredge is picking up in popularity and it shows.

Nether Shadow can safely be dredged away and will be back to fight, block or be sacrificed to Dread Return to reanimate Balustrade Spy or Golgari Grave-Troll.

The deck is a popular budget option for a format known for costing thousands of dollars to play competitively.

This deck can be put together for a little more than a preordered booster box of Conspiracy.

There are still a lot of budget cards in the deck that have room to grow.

Chancellor of the Annex is cheap and can keep opponents from landing a turn one Deathrite Shaman to attack your graveyard.

Flayer of the Hatebound is also a bulk card and adds a unique effect which can close games out of nowhere.

I expect the pieces of this deck to continue to grow as interest in Legacy grows.

1. Breathstealer’s Crypt
$1.21 to $2.00 (65.3%)

Here is a spec that I like!

Breathstealer’s Crypt is a rare from Visions. It is on the reserve list.

It gives you information. Everyone will know what everyone is drawing. It costs life or cards.

It is obvious what is going on with this card – it is the latest Nekusar target.

You make your opponents draw cards and drain their life anyway. You can deprive them of precious creatures and finish them off.

What is left for the Nekusar deck?

Kederekt Parasite, Otherworld Atlas and Reforge the Soul are all still bulk.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Boros Reckoner
$8.75 to $7.79 (-11.0%)

Pro Tour Journey into Nyx was not kind to the Minotaur Wizard.

The event came and went and not a single copy was found in the Top 8.

Even Monowhite Aggro and Boros Burn decks do not necessarily run him anymore.

The time to trade these away was a few months ago. Their only use was Standard and it has seen its day.

I would move them as quickly as possible because once rotation hits they will be bulk.

I would try to get scylands or even shocklands for them if you could.

4. Shatterstorm
$19.10 to $16.90 (-11.5%)

Shatterstorm is a powerful answer to Affinity decks in Modern and Legacy.

Unfortunately the popularity of these decks have waned as people have adjusted their sideboards.

This is part of the danger of investing in sideboard cards.

If they do too well then the threat is neutralized and demand sags.

This leaves and opening for the threat to return and for interest to rise again.

I would trade these away as it is on its way down. It jumped from $5 to $20 over the course of a few weeks. It has been trending down again.

Try to pick them up again once they drop below $10.

3. The Mimeoplasm (Commander’s Arsenal)
$13.75 to $12.00 (-12.7%)

We recently saw a burst in demand for Commanders. Every enemy wedge Commander that was under $10 was snatched up and an increase in price drove this card from $ $6 to $15 over night.

The frenzy is dying down and prices are settling.

The price has come down but it is stabilizing.

If you want a fun commander I would hold onto these. I expect the price the price to slowly start climbing from here. It just will not be at the rabid pace we have seen.

2. Shivan Reef
$7.99 to $6.88 (-13.9%)

Storm has been testing well in Modern. Shivan Reef helps fix mana and does not come into play tapped.

It has been steadily growing over the past few weeks. I would look at this as a speed bump.

Modern season is rapidly approaching. This could be a good opportunity to grab three or four if you are looking at playing UR Storm.

1. Oubliette
$9.35 to $7.21 (-22.9%)

Did you trade yours away yet? Everyone else is doing so.

It is an interesting card but not so powerful that I see a strong reason for the price.

If you want to exile a creature in black we now have Silence the Believers and Gild. I think this will just continue to decrease in value.

In Defense of Risk

By: Jason Alt

“In order to manage risk we must first understand risk. How do you spot risk? How do you avoid risk and what makes it so risky? To understand risk, we must first define risk.”
– Seinfeld Episode 140 “The Fatigues”

Did anyone see that episode? The whole point of the story arc was that George had to read a book about risk for work but he hated the voice inside his own head so he got a book on tape to make it less boring. The guy reading the book on tape sounded just like him because the Seinfeld universe is really wacky. I think that was the episode where that Jurassic Park guy said “Hello, Jerry.” It was a great show.

If it were me, I wouldn’t need another person’s voice to distract me from boredom to read a book about risk. Risk isn’t boring. At all. Risk is the least boring thing ever. Not risk is boring. “Not risk” is investing 4% of your paycheck into a company approved 401K investment plan because your company matches you dollar for dollar. Risk is e-mailing a picture of your buttcrack to everyone on the company’s e-mail distribution list, telling your boss you want to get a new job as a racecar driver and taking your life’s savings to Vegas to bet it all on black. Russian Roulette is risky. Skydiving is risky. Not wearing a condom is risky. What could be more exciting?

The Risks We Take

Not pictured – my bedroom

I’m not a millionaire. Shocking, right? I don’t have all of the money there is on the planet. Despite experiencing a high degree of success both in picking the correct specs and lucking into some opportunities in the community, I’m not the richest person on earth. That’s because 100% of my specs are not fruitful. (Edit-100% of readers are not able to figure out that I am not saying 100% of my specs are wrong, but that fewer than 100% of my specs are fruitful. It’s a confusing wording, I’ll grant you that.) Sometimes I bet on the wrong horsey. Sometimes the winds shift, the metagame changes, new cards are printed or a card gets banned and a pick that made sense last week is suddenly a poor bet this week. Sometimes you make the right call but you misjudged demand and you end up like Travis Allen did this year. Speculation is hard. You can nail a spec like Travis did and still not make a ton of money on it. You know how often a card quadruples in value? Not often. You know how often a card quadruples in value and someone from the finance community is far enough ahead of it to take advantage of scooping copies? Less often. Much, much less often. We’re not psychics, we’re just keen observers of patterns, holding on by our fingernails, hoping there wasn’t an important variable we missed. If you “hit” on a spec, you feel amazing. And you should – you accomplished something rare and wonderful.

Why We Should Go Deep

I hate myself in the worst way possible, so I spend time in the finance subreddit. Wait, I didn’t think that through at all. Someone’s probably going to link this article there and people are going to read it and be all “say WHAT?” Should have planned that better. Anyway, YOLO.

YOLO? Really Jason?

Yeah, it’s annoying when people say “YOLO” isn’t it? It was supposed to be the next generation’s “Carpe Diem” but it’s turned into a phrase that more often means “Oh, did I make a terrible decision? Oh well, no sense crying over spilled milk. Or, you know, learning.” I don’t see a lot of people saying the literal phrase “YOLO” on reddit. Not that literal phrase. However, I do see that same sentiment reflected and it was the impetus for today’s article.

Travis’ piece about his spec only going up $0.75 was a cautionary tale about a scenario where a spec can “hit” but there are no buyers at the higher price because there was no demand. His piece wasn’t written as a response to the same sentiment I’m responding to, but it does address it. I’m referring to a mentality I see applied to low-risk specs.

Hypothetical Scenario

I see a lot of people say something like “I think Prognostic Sphinx is a good spec. It was everywhere at the Pro Tour so I bought a playset.” A discussion starts. Inevitably someone will point out that the Pro Tour was block so Sphinx probably shined because there was a smaller card pool. Someone else might point out that block is a decent predictor of future standard, but not always because Khans of Tarkir could give us something to invalidate the card completely, similar to the way that Dungeon Geists really fell off after that block Pro Tour despite a very impressive showing by the geist deck from players like Jon Finkel.

“But Prognostic Sphinx was only a quarter. If it goes up, I profit, if it doesn’t, oh well. I only bought a playset. I won’t lose anything.”

Sure but if you only bought a playset, you don’t gain anything if it goes up, either.

“YOLO”

  Stop Saying “YOLO”

I speak very highly of low risk specs all the time. The closer to “bulk” you buy in, the lower your risk is. Bulk rares spike up all the time due to changing circumstances. Ryan Bushard, famously, made money off of Death’s Shadow spiking up from a dime to a few dollars not once, but twice. If Death’s Shadow hadn’t done anything, he could have held onto it for as long as he wanted. There is a cost to that- the opportunity cost of having your money tied up in a busted spec. Then, if he wanted to get out, he could sell them as bulk rares. Presuming he got in for a dime, he could get out for a dime with his only breakage being shipping and processing costs. Worse things have happened. With such low downside it made sense for him to buy a playset, right?

WRONG.

If he’d bought a playset and the spec ended up busted, he’d be out a small amount of money, so why not risk it? If the spec had hit, he’s be in… a small amount of money. Practically nothing. Let’s play with made up numbers.

4 copies at $0.12 = $0.48

Shipping = $2.39

In cost – $2.87

After sitting on the cards for a week or so, the spec pays off! Either Sam Black wins a Pro Tour with 4 copies of Death’s Shadow in his deck, or Travis Woo says something that rhymes with Death’s Shadow on his stream. Either way, the card is going to be worth $5 by Monday!

You hope on TCG Player but it’s jammed with people trying to sell their copies for $4.35 and it’s ticking down. Still, Star City upped their buylist price to $1 each! Wow! That’s 10 times what you paid! Cash in, you lucky so-and-so.

Buylist order

4 copies at $1 = $4

– 3% Paypal fee = $3.84

– $2.39 shipping the cards to SCG = $1.45

$1.45 – $2.87 = -$1.42

Congratulations. You correctly predicted a price spike of 5,000% – a jump that only occurs once every year or so. Your reward for having the foresight to see a 5,000% increase coming is you profited negative $1.42. Time to call your boss and tell him to suck it- beers are on you tonight!

Think about it. If you had bought 40 copies instead, what are we looking at?

Your cost is $7.19 instead of $2.87. Not much difference.

Your profit after shipping to the buylist and paying your initial cost is $29.22. That’s still not worth the effort, and we’re buying in ten times the “YOLO” order.

Buy 100 copies and your initial cost is $14.39 (exactly twice what 40 copies costs-thanks shipping!) and you make $100 on the buylist, lose $3 to fees, $2.39 to shipping and actually profit $80. $80 is not a bad payday, but you’re paying yourself minimum wage, probably.

I like these low-risk “penny stock” picks like Death’s Shadow, but what people need to realize is that if you’re not going DEEP on the spec, you’re not making money. 100 copies is not deep unless you have a better out for the copies than the buylist. Can you sell 100 copies on TCG Player while competing with everyone else trying to capitalize on the price spike? eBay?

Like Tahiti, “locally” is a magical place

How about “locally?” This is another thing you’ll read a lot. “I’m not going to sell to a buylist, I’ll just sell these locally and not pay any fees.”

I don’t know about you, but I’m not able to walk into my LGS with 100 copies of Death’s Shadow and walk out with $500 cash. This “sell them locally” response is bandied about more often with respect to small quantities; a playset or two. You don’t pay shipping or paypal fees or take the big hit buylisting if you just sell them “locally.” I guess? Let’s say you have local buyers in place. If you bought a playset of Death’s Shadow and your cost is $2.87 and you get $20 for the playset, that’s pretty good. It’s very good! You can make even more scaling that up. How many local buyers do you have? What’s your plan for the rest of the copies? You’re going to buylist all buy a playset or two, most likely. You profit $20 or $40 extra. Even if your only plan was to buy a playset or two to sell at the shop and you get full SCG retail, cash, no fees, how well did you do? Percentage-wise, you CRUSHED it. Still, you made, what, $40? If you could do it every day, that would be great. But how often is a card going to go from a dime to $5? Once a year? Less? And you correctly predicted such a rare event- you deserve more than $40.

How To Get What You Deserve

Put yourself in a position to actually benefit from a card’s price spiking. Predicting price spikes is HARD. Make sure you’re rewarded for being correct. It’s not easy to do and you can’t count on it happening often, so treat each spec opportunity like it’s once-in-a-lifetime.

Buy enough copies to actually make money if the card’s price goes up. I can’t emphasize this enough.

Don’t spec with money you can’t afford to lose. Most of the time this isn’t a stock market, it’s a slot machine. Gamble responsibly.

Make sure you diversify your investment portfolio. Don’t jam all of your eggs in one basket. Have a nice mix of long and short-term specs. Turning those short-term specs over means you can have some money liquid to buy into new opportunities as they arise. You don’t want to sell your long-term holds prematurely for practically what you paid for them to have the money to buy into something else that comes along. Bankroll management is bankroll management whether it’s with money or specs.

Final Thoughts

You’re risking your money when you speculate. If it were a sure thing, I’d be a millionaire. Even if I were only going to make $0.75 a copy like in Travis’ sobering scenario, if I knew 100% that I would make $0.75 a copy, I would just take out hundreds of thousands of dollars in loans and just print myself a fortune $0.75 at a time. There are limitations to the amount we can spend, the number of copies we can get in, process and sell. There are limits to the number of copies any given person or buylist will take off of our hands. But if you believe in your spec, go deep! Have fun- speculation is fun, so treat it as entertainment and you’ll be less gun-shy about investing. Remember- this is hard to do and being ahead of a spec doesn’t happen every time. You made an intelligent play by getting ahead of a spike, so make sure you make it worth your while.

Weekend Update for 5/17/14

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Shirei, Shizo’s Caretaker
$2.82 to $3.20 (13.5%)

Lately the Magic Finance community has been going bananas for Commanders. The legendary creatures from Commander and Planechase decks have been making their rounds.

It is possible that now interesting legends from Kamigawa are getting some attention.

Shirei has been a pet favorite card of mine for a while. The possibilities of getting back small creatures like Bone Shredder or Fume Spitter over and over again are a lot of fun.

It is exactly the kind of challenge Commander players love to find and build around.

However there is a new 1 power black creature in town. Shadowborn Apostle turns this commander from interesting to degenerate.

Imagine getting a new beefy demon every single turn.

Shirei makes paying upkeep costs like Abhorrent Overlord’s or Xathrid Demon’s into a value proposition.

Lord of the Void and Rune-Scarred Demon are all cheap and fun to play with.

He only has one printing and given his name he will be tough to reprint outside of supplemental products.

I agree that his time has come. I expect him to continue to climb.

9. Cephalid Coliseum (From the Vault: Realms)
$2.34 to $2.68 (14.5%)

Cephalid Coliseum plays in Legacy Dredge. It does fantastic things in that deck like stocking your hand and graveyard at a reasonable price.

The problem is that is it an uncommon from Odyssey and it was reprinted in From the Vault: Realms.

It was nearly $4 before dipping back down to $2. It looks like it is on its way back up. You should be able to pick up a play set fairly cheaply and sit on them.

8. Tendo Ice Bridge
$3.50 to $4.05 (15.7%)

Tendo Ice Bridge comes into play untapped and provides you with any color that you want.

The drawback is that it can only do this once.

The Modern Amulet of Vigor deck has found a way around this. It runs so many Ravnica bouncelands that it can rebuy the charge counter over and over again. Azusa, Lost but Seeking even helps you replay and reuse the same bridge on the same turn.

It is a rare from Betrayers of Kamigawa so there is not a large supply. The deck uses three of them.

The buy in is cheap and I do not believe it is done growing. The deck is still on the fringe but it has seen some 3-1s on MODO Modern dailies. I would trade for any that you see.

7. Oubliette
$7.97 to $9.35 (17.3%)

This common comes to us all the way from Arabian Nights.

It is a black Oblivion Ring that returns auras and counters. That makes it a template that Wizards will never want to reprint again. It is also in a color that no longer gets this effect.

Why exile a creature when you can Murder them for the exact same price?

It is not on the reserved list but it might as well be. I don’t think we will ever see any more copies of this card in existence.

It is used in Mono-Black Control Pauper decks but the Pauper format.

Unfortunately Pauper is not really a supported format in paper Magic.

In Commander and Cubes it gives black an ability that cannot be found on other cards unless you look at creatures like Faceless Butcher.

The past few months have seen it go from $2 to $4 to $14. It went back down to $7 and is now on the rise again. I think this is premature.

I would move these.

6. Chandra Nalaar (Duel Decks: Chandra versus Jace)
$7.51 to $8.99 (19.7%)

Chandra Nalaar is one of the Lorwyn five. As one of the original planeswalkers she will always have some casual appeal.

She also makes some appearances on the competitive front.

There is a Modern Boros Lockdown deck that ties up the opponent’s board with Ghostly Prison and Ensnaring Bridge.

Chandra Nalaar can pick off small creatures or creates a clock for the opponent.

The big finisher is Assemble the Legion.

Turn after turn an army of 1/1 soldiers with haste provide chump blockers and eventually an overwhelming offense.

Chandra is used as a 2 of in the deck.

It is notable that this price is for the Duel Deck: Chandra versus Jace version. It has unique artwork and was only found in limited supplies.

I don’t see her rising in price too much more. She has already been printed four times and she could theoretically be reprinted in any core set that needed her.

5. Orzhov Pontiff
$2.07 to $2.48 (19.8%)

Orzhov Pontiff is a rare from Guildpact. It has not been reprinted and its flavor makes it difficult to reprint outside of Return to Return to Ravnica or a supplemental product.

I think even those are long shots as Wizards has expressed regret with the Haunt mechanic.

It does some wonderful work in Melira Pod acting as removal and additional value when you sacrifice creatures.

It is only played as a one of in the deck. This has helped push the card from bulk rare to $2.50.

Melira Pod is very strong in the metagame but does not dominate which will help it avoid the ban hammer.

In the most recent GP in Minneapolis there were two Melira Pod decks in the Top 8 and a total of five in the Top 16.

So long as the deck continues to show such strong results I expect this card to continue to grow in value.

4. Temple of Malady
$6.07 to $7.49 (23.4%)

The scrylands from Journey Into Nyx will have the lowest supply of any of the scrylands. Journey is a third set so far less will be opened in drafts and sealed pools.

Drafters will also be treated to Conspiracy in a couple weeks. It will be interesting to see how this effects Theros block drafts.

Even before Journey the Golgari Dredge deck has been turning heads as a fun alternative to Esper Control or variations on Blue Devotion.

In block Temple of Malady is also played in BUG Control and Jund.

This will see the highest prices of any of the scrylands.

The big question is what dual lands will be available in M15 or the fall set. I see the potential for these to continue to grow to $10 or to fall back down to around $5.

I think growth is more likely. I would happily trade for them but don’t go crazy. A couple play sets should do you.

3. Necropotence
$6.64 to $8.53 (28.5%)

Vintage Masters.

Vintage Masters is the talk of the town. Magic Online will have a draftable set that allows them to play with broken cards that banned in every format but Vintage and casual kitchen tops.

More people will get to experience playing with this card. It is difficult to reprint. Wizards of the Coast has banned this in Legacy so it goes without saying that they do not want to see this in Modern or Standard.

Planechase, Archenemy and Commander products are all usually multicolor decks that would not play well with the greedy mana cost that Necropotence demands.

It has already been printed in a From the Vaults product so I don’t think any more will appear until they are announced as a promo.

This is a solid investment that I believe will continue to rise in the short and long term. Vintage Masters will not be redeemable but it will increase interest.

I would trade for them.

2. Shivan Reef
$5.52 to $7.99 (44.8%)

Shivan Reef is used in Modern Izzet decks like Storm or Kiki Twin. It helps fix mana without losing tempo.

The UR Storm deck has been getting 3-1s on Modern MODO dailies and has been piloted by pros like Jon Finkel.

The deck runs three Reefs to help fix mana but they are not essential to the deck. Steam Vents, Cascade Bluffs and Scalding Tarns all work to help the mana flow.

A deck like Storm requires finesse and skill to pilot. A lot of people are trying to build it because it is relatively light on the budget and powerful.

I think that this card will continue to increase in value slowly but with three printings I think it will have difficulty getting much higher than ten dollars.

1. Urza’s Miter
$2.73 to $4.87 (78.4%)

Urza’s Miter is a rare from Antiquities and is on the reserved list.

There will never be any more copies of the Miter than there currently are.

It is not that powerful or interesting so I don’t think the Magic world at large would miss it if every copy in existence suddenly disappeared. It is lower in power level than Viridian Revel which does not require three mana for every activation.

It looks at your artifacts but cannot benefit you if you sacrificed the artifact.

It is clunky and tough to build around.

It has seen a sudden surge in popularity. It jumped from $2.50 to $4 and right back down to $2.50. It is currently making its way back to $5.

There is no real justification for this outside of someone buying the cheap copies to artificially raise the price. This is still a bad spec.

That does not mean that there is no opportunity here. If anyone has one they are probably not aware of the inexplicable price increase.

One store on MTGPrice has a buylist of $2.51 on it.

You could trade this straight for cash. I would do so before this vendor corrects its buylist.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Lightning Bolt (Magic Players Reward Card)
$55.95 to $49.48 (-11.6%)

This just baffles me. There has never been a format where this card was legal and it was not one of the best removal spells played. It is always seen as a play set for the sole reason that you cannot play forty of them in your deck.

This card belongs in almost every Modern and Legacy deck that has access to red mana. It belongs in every Cube and many casual decks.

I don’t need to defend Lightning Bolt. I just need to point out that this is probably the cheapest you will see this premium version.

4. Damia, Sage of Stone
$12.55 to $11.00 (-12.4%)

I mentioned before that everyone has been going crazy for Commanders.

She had been steadily growing from $4 to $7 when people starting noticing generals disappearing. There were several buyouts and she got all the way to $14 before everyone decided she was good but maybe not that good.

She has taken a little dive but I expect her to level out around $10 and continue slowly growing. I would watch for the opportunity to grab her when she does.

She even sees play in BUG Nic Fit in Legacy. The deck has not posted serious results but if someone can find a way to use it then expect her to shoot up along with the rest of the deck.

Reviewing the deck made me realize that Thragtusk is now sitting at under $2.50. I think that is a steal. I believe his price will go up if he gets reprinted in a core set and everyone needs their play sets to play with again.

I just hope they do not reprint Restoration Angel in that Standard environment.

3. Ephara, God of the Polis
$5.77 to $5.05 (-12.5%)

The gods have lost some of their luster. I would use this as a chance to get them. Once Return to Ravnica rotates there will be a shakeup in decks. A card that can guarantee card advantage will be well positioned.

The casual and commander crowds will make sure that these insanely efficient creatures never dip down too low. I look at Karametra as the floor. I don’t think any god should ever be less than $3. I am waiting for something in Huey or M15 to come out that will make her outstanding.

Ephara actually sees play in competitive Standard decks so she should not get lower than $5. If you want to play with her get in now.

2. Domri Rade
$24.29 to $20.85 (-14.2%)

Standard is diversifying. Domri Rade is being used in variants on Jund, Naya and Gruul decks.

It is also being used in Modern in Zoo.

It is a shame that all of those decks are failing to make impressive results.

His price is slipping. You can even find him for almost $15 in some locations.

I would trade mine away unless you want to play with him. The fact that he is used in Modern means his price won’t drop too much come rotation, but it will be a bumpy ride until then.

Liquidate now and pick it up right after rotation if you want to use him in Modern.

1. Lotus Petal (From the Vault: Exiled)
$33.91 to $27.48 (-18.7%)

I still love this card. It is used in a number of Legacy decks that are getting results. If we just look at the most recent SCG Open we see the following decks that feature three to four Petals.

ANT and Imperial Painter were both in the Top 8.

Belcher represented two spots in the Top 16.

Any way you slice it a quarter of the decks that were placing ran almost the full compliment of the artifact.

There is no way it stays this low for too much longer.