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Weekend Update for 6/14/14

Weekend Recap

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Hero of Bladehold (Mirrodin Beseiged)
From $7.97 to $8.57 (7.53%)

The Modern Event Deck is letting players craft a Black White token deck.

This deck is decent but there is definitely room for improvement.

People who bought the deck will absolutely be looking for threats like Hero of Bladehold and Brimaz, King of Oreskos for their decks. This is a golden opportunity for anyone who has been sitting on Hero since Scars of Mirrodin block rotated.

I expect more growth as these are heavily traded in the short term.

9. Slaughter Pact (Future Sight)
From $4.49 to $4.90 (9.13%)

Slaughter Pact is all over Modern. Melira Pod, Jund, Amulet of Vigor, BG Rock and other decks love their free removal spell.

Modern season for PTQs has officially begun and this is one of the cards I would most love to have ready in my trade binder as people brew decks.

8. Vampire Nocturnus (M13)
$4.55 to $4.98 (9.45%)

It is a mythic rare vampire lord. This guy has crazy casual appeal and only two printings in Core sets.

He is going to be in every casual vampire tribal deck ever. This gives the card lasting sustainable value even if he never sees a competitive deck.

I like him as a long term hold.

7. Thraximundar (Alara Reborn)
From $4.78 to $5.27 (10.25%)

Thraximundar has the misfortune to be printed in the Mind Seize Commander 2013 deck. His stock has been plummeting as people rip open the boxes for True-Name Nemesis and Baleful Strix.

He does not fit anywhere in the Nekusar, the Mindrazer Commander decks that most people fashion so he tends to get tossed into trade binders and sit.

Why the sudden resurgence in appeal?

I give the credit to Marchesa, the Black Rose from Conspiracy. He slots in perfectly at the top of the curve for her deck. He gets rid of opposing creatures and gets all important +1/+1 counters that make him a big threat that Marchesa can help recur.

He is also a great arbitrage opportunity at the moment. The lowest vendor has him listed at $3.33. The highest buylist is $4.01.

Anytime there is a negative spread you should be paying attention. It is the most important flag that card stores can give that they think the price is going to be higher soon.

More importantly it is a chance to make some free money. Keep reading. There are several more opportunities coming up throughout in the article.

6. Enduring Ideal (Saviors of Kamigawa)
From $4.29 to $4.74 (10.49%)

This build around me rare from Saviors of Kamigawa gets people excited every time powerful new enchantments are printed.

I cannot envision someone running this in a Modern or Commander brew and not at least testing out Theros gods.

It is often used in Prison style decks so I am not surprised to see it get a little bump as Modern season is underway.

I just do not have faith in it to do much. I would trade mine away.

Hopefully for Ghostly Prison.

5. Voidslime (Dissension)
From $7.81 to $8.68 (11.14%)

This card has always puzzled me. It is Stifle stapled onto Cancel with green splashed in for reasons I cannot fathom.

It has an unforgiving mana cost that makes it impossible to splash unless your deck is already running both blue and green mana.

It is a unique combination of effects but there are certainly more efficient ways to deal with spells.

I like Trickbind better if you are trying to trip up a Birthing Pod activation or prevent a fetchland from finding anything.

Squelch will do the same thing and does not even cost you a card.

Voidslime is powerful but it has yet to find a home which makes me hesitant to do anything but trade away the card into whatever hype it is experiencing.

4. Furyborn Hellkite (M12)
From $2.53 to $2.99 (18.18%)

This is a mythic rare dragon with a keyword that has already been used in a Core Set. It is every casual gamer’s dream as their eyes light up envisioning casting a 12/12 for a mere seven mana.

It can even be used in a Marchesa Commander deck or in casual dragon decks.

It is pretty cheap and I think it will hold its value nicely.

3. Commandeer (Coldsnap)
From $2.89 to $3.48 (20.42%)

Usually people assume when you are tapped out that you cannot play any spells.

They may play a critical burn spell and still ask you if it resolves fearing a Pact of Negation. You nod that it does and they visibly relax.

That’s when you cast Commandeer. It could be a Cruel Ultimatum in a multiplayer game of Commander or a lethal Lightning Storm from an Ad Nauseam deck in Modern.

Either way, you are about to ruin someone’s day.

Free spell effects are few and far between.

This is no Force of Will but it still should be more than a meager $3. I could see this getting to $5 or $6 pretty easily as Modern season heats up.

2. Mark of Asylum (Conflux)
From $0.93 to $1.32 (41.94%)

I have always had a soft spot for the little bulk rare that could. It is not about to take any format by storm but it does show up in numerous Modern sideboards.

GW Hatebears and Soul Sisters both run one or two copies in their seventy five.

Right now there is a negative spread on it. The lowest vendor price is $0.40 but the highest buylist is $0.65.

Sometimes people overlook the value of bulk and pass up opportunities for free money.

1. Pyretic Ritual (M11)
From $0.69 to $1.21 (75.36%)

This is one of the cards I keep an eye for when I purchase “bulk” from people.

The mythic rares and format staples have been picked out but many people ignore commons. There are usually stacks of commons and uncommons that will add up to a respectable pay day from a friendly buylist.

Pyretic Ritual has only been printed in M11. It is used in Modern UR Storm and in Legacy Belcher decks. It is pretty much Desperate Ritual numbers five through eight in those decks. That makes it key to the deck.

Right now an opportunity is available for someone to make some money off of this one. The lower vendor price is $0.25 but the highest buylist price is $0.46.

A few dimes may not seem like much but you are nearly doubling your money.

This is the bread and butter of Magic finance to me.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Sphinx’s Revelation (Return to Ravnica)
From $14.76 to $12.47 (-15.51%)

We all know that Revelation is on its way out of standard. That will not happen for several months and even then it will not be a lost cause.

It has seen adoption in several Modern decks including UWR Control, UW Tron and UW Control decks.

Vendor confidence in the card is strong. The lowest vendor price is $9.49. The highest buylist is $9.00.

This may not be an arbitrage opportunity but with such a thin spread I expect many of you will have friends trying to unload these for a drop that is not coming. I would be very comfortable trading for these around $10.

4. Obzedat, Ghost Council (Gatecrash)
From $8.67 to $7.24 (-16.49%)

Unlike Revelation above Obzedat is used purely in Standard. The card is very strong but the it does not have a deck it can easily slip into.

I would trade these away while you can still get a shockland for them.

3. Cyclonic Rift (Return to Ravnica)
From $4.56 to $3.78 (-17.11%)

Rotation will not be a large issue for Cyclonic Rift. It did not see a lot of adoption in Standard. Even the monoblue devotion decks only run one copy.

It is showing up in Modern Mono U Tron  and Mono U Control decks and sideboards.

It is also very powerful in Commander games.

I think it will settle around $3. I would trade them away if you want to get your money’s worth but I would not feel bad if you cannot move them. They are not going to slip that far.

2. Nightveil Specter (Gatecrash)
From $5.89 to $4.61 (-21.73%)

This will be another victim of pure Standard usage. Unfortunately the time to get out of these was the beginning of the year when they were still $10.

Get out now if you have any left.

You will be finding these in bulk rare bins before the end of the year.

1. Herald of Torment (Born of the Gods)
From $3.12 to $2.11 (-32.37%)

One last but important opportunity for arbitrage.

The lowest vendor price is only $0.74 and the highest buylist is $1.15.

Even the prospect of free money is not quite tempting enough. You can make a little money now or make a lot of money a little later.

It is used in Monoblack and even Junk decks in recent block GPs.

The best black cards are Thoughtseize and Hero’s Downfall alongside Bile Blight. Those are not going anywhere. Black decks will still be a force after rotation.

Monoblack control will lose Desecration Demon and Pack Rat but Herald of Torment and Master of the Feast could take some of those spots.

Herald is very well positioned for the fall. I would grab as many as I could.

Weekend Update for 6/7/14

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Celestial Colonnade (Worldwake)
From $20.35 to $22.35 (9.8%)

Is everyone ready for Modern season?

UWR Control and Midrange decks have been very prolific in the meta recently. 4 Color Gifts and UWR Twin decks have also adopted play sets of Colonnade main deck.

This card works as mana fixing and a finisher that dodges sweeper cards like Supreme Verdict. Usually a land that enters the battlefield tapped has a minor upside like 1 life or Scry 1. The ability to turn into a Serra Angel is nothing short of incredible.

You can attack with it and leave up mana for a Spell Snare or Path to Exile.

I would trade these away happily.

These are much easier to reprint in Standard or a supplemental product than Fetchlands.

9. Privileged Position (Ravnica)
From $13.80 to $15.38 (11.5%)

Commander and Casual players do not like it when you mess with their stuff.

Once you have built up enough mana for an Eldrazi or Kor Spiritdancer loaded with auras the last thing you want is a removal spell destroying all of your hard work.

This has been a steady gainer for a long time but I would not expect indefinite gains. The name and mechanics are generic enough to fit into any set or product that Wizards feels it can be used in.

I see nothing against getting a few to trade to Commander players but I would not go in much further than that

8. Pact of Negation (Modern Masters)
From $8.90 to $9.95 (11.8%)

You can never go wrong with a free counterspell. It protects combos and vital pieces of your board. Play it once and your opponent will always wonder if you have one in your hand.

The Pacts were printed in Modern Masters but it has been a year and prices are once again returning to starting to climb back up.

I think this is a card poised to make a vital return at a key moment in upcoming PTQ coverage.

Currently it is used in Ad Nauseam, Amulet of Vigor and even a UR Possibility Storm deck. I expect it will see wider adoption within the next few months.

7. Shivan Reef (10th Edition)
From $8.22 to $9.19 (11.8%)

Modern Storm decks do not have the luxury of waiting for lands that enter the battlefield tapped. They need their fixing and they need it now.

Shivan Reef is seeing play alongside Steam Vents, Sulfur Falls and Scalding Tarns. That is good company to be in.

It has been printed several times and Storm is an infamously complex deck to play. I don’t think players will support it in enough numbers to keep this price where it is.

It is approaching the price of Shocklands and that does not seem sustainable.

6. Sylvan Caryatid (Theros)
From $6.36 to $7.64 (20.1%)

This card is well positioned come rotation. It plays defense, fix and accelerates your mana without giving your opponent the potential to set you back a turn with a Shock.

It can help you power out a turn three Reaper of the Wilds, Eidolon of Blossoms or Polukranos, World Eater.

It is already a heavy lifter in Standard and I don’t expect that to go away any time soon.

The only unfortunate thing about it is that it was a rare in a heavily drafted set and it was a promo. I think it will approach $10 but I don’t think it will be able to do much better than that.

5. Sigil of the Empty Throne (Conflux)
From $5.00 to $6.07 (21.4%)

I know people have been brewing both Monowhite and Azorius Prison decks with Sigil as the finisher.

Journey into Nyx got a lot of people discussing Constellation. I don’t know if Nyx-Fleece Ram is good enough to buy time but I am sure someone is testing  it.

Legacy has also been experimenting with a Selesnya Enchantress deck that runs Sigil as a high end finisher.

This card has gotten a lot of attention recently and I would trade into the hype.

4. Courser of Kruphix (Born of the Gods)
From $13.14 to $16.30 (24.0%)

Courser of Kruphix is the hottest thing in Standard. Pretty much any deck with green mana wants to play the full four. You get card advantage just for running it in the same deck as lands.

You can combine it with Domri Rade for even more hilarity.

Eidolon of Blossoms loves the fact that is it an enchantment.

Opposing aggressive decks packed with two power creatures for one mana hate it. Burn decks resent the incidental life gain that adds up over the course of a game.

It is even being used in Modern Jund and 4 Color Gifts decks.

The one big question is if it can break the $20 glass ceiling for rares.

As much as I love this card I don’t see a lot of room for it to grow. If you want to turn it into cash you will not be leaving a lot of money on the table.

You won’t regret holding onto them either. It is very well positioned for rotation as shown by the variety of Theros block decks that pack the full four. I expect it to keep its new price tag for the rest of its time in Standard.

3. Seizan, Perverter of Truth (Champions of Kamigawa)
From $3.31 to $4.08 (26.3%)

Nekusar, the Mindrazer has breathed new life into a lot of group hug cards.

Giving away cards is usually a good way to pacify your opponents but the Mindrazer also makes it a great way to kill them.

Seizan, Perverter of Truth is supposed to give everyone a free Night’s Whisper each turn but with your Commander out it is at least a Harrowing Journey for your opponents if not worse.

His flavor makes him difficult to reprint outside of supplemental Products.

I would happily trade him to anyone fine tuning their Nekusar deck.

If you find your play group looking for a good way to deal with the influx of Nekusar decks I would suggest Omen Machine. It turns their Commander into a Pillarfield Ox and lets everyone else play their spells for free. It is a bulk rare and easy to slide into any Commander deck.

2. Slaughter Pact (Modern Masters)
From $3.19 to $4.08 (27.9%)

Free spells are always handy and free removal is no exception. Any Modern deck that has black mana should at least be asking if they want to run this spell.

Jund, Melira Pod and even Amulet of vigor and a host of other decks use it to keep Twin decks at bay.

Anyone who is experimenting with the format due to the release of the Modern Event Deck will also be looking for this card.

This is exactly the kind of card I would want to have in my binder to trade to Modern players.

1. Garruk Relentless (Innistrad)
From $3.75 to $5.22 (39.2%)

The fact that this is a double sided planeswalker makes it unique and unlikely to ever be reprinted.

Modern has been toying with it in Junk midrange and it even sees play in the sideboard of Legacy Nic-Fit decks.

It has a home in Commander decks that play both black and green so there will always be some demand.

I think that this is a pretty safe investment in the long run with some potential growth in the short run if any of the decks that use it take off.

I would not actively try to seek them out but I would happily trade for them from players that were have stock left over from last year’s rotation.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Krenko, Mob Boss (M13)
From $4.85 to $4.46 (-8.0%)

Goblins will always be a popular choice in casual formats of all kinds. They are one of the oldest and most aggressive tribes in every format they populate.

Krenko is not a goblin lord but he does play very well with them. He is four mana so he is sitting on the top of the curve of playable goblins.

He does see play on both Modern and Legacy Goblin decks but normally only as one or two copies.

He has demonstrated slow but consistent growth since he rotated and I expect that to continue.

I think this was just a hiccup.

4. Deus of Calamity (Shadowmoor)
From $2.90 to $2.52 (-13.1%)

Duel Deck: Heroes vs Monsters reprinted this card and that is where things get interesting.

You can now pick up the new version of this card for $0.99.

This has led to several sites underselling the original card. It actually has a negative spread right now.

You can find copies as low as $1.49 and buylist them for $1.51.

This is not going to make you a lot of money but it shows that there is an underlying confidence in this card.

Any time you can buy a card at or below buylist is an amazing opportunity.

Look for these in trade binders.

3. Steel Hellkite (Scars of Mirrodin)
From $1.70 to $1.41 (-17.1%)

Here is another glitch in the Matrix. The current Beta is a slightly negative spread.

People are treating this like a bulk rare when it gets played in Legacy MUD.

It is only played as a single copy but it still sees play.

It is also compatible with any Commander deck and it is a dragon for the casual crowd.

Do not be fooled. I would get in on these.

2. Spirit Mantle (M12)
From $2.56 to $2.00 (-21.9%)

I love this card. It is exactly the kind of uncommon I like to see when I purchase “bulk” from people.

Did you know you can buylist them for $1.50?

Most people see an uncommon and assume it is $0.25.

You can even find copies online for $1.35 as I type this.

If free money does not interest you then maybe Modern Hexproof decks do. Several of them are trying this out in the deck.

I think you could be in a lot worse place than sitting on a small stack of these while the Pro Tour is focused on Modern.

1. Echo Mage (Rise of the Eldrazi)
From $0.93 to $0.68 (-26.9%)

Commander 2013 has really shaken up a lot of prices. It giveth but sometimes it taketh away.

Echo Mage was included in Commander 2013 in the Mind Seize deck. Everyone pillaged it for True-Name Nemesis and Baleful Strix and converted the rest to a Nekusar deck.

Unfortunately Echo Mage does not belong in a Nekusar deck. You need to invest a total of nine mana before you can copy a Winds of Change or Burning Inquiry. Almost all of that is blue which can be quite demanding on a three colored deck.

It is quickly becoming bulk and I do not see any reason for it not to.

The Ethics of MTGFinance

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Recently I’ve found myself being pulled into cyclical debates on the ethics of MTGFinance. With the increasing participation and interest in this side of the Magic: The Gathering community, it seems like a good time to get to the bottom of things.

The Price Is Always Right

So the other day I’m at a new nerd conference in Toronto and I notice halfway through day 2 as we’re promoting ShelfLife.net (plug: our next gen social commerce platform for collectors) that attendance is pretty dismal. Figuring the vendors may be in the mood for deals I locate an LGS dealer with a ton of binders in tow and no central pricing system. This is exactly the scenario where you are likely to find the best, and the largest deals, largely because only the biggest most dedicated vendors can possibly keep up with the increasingly rapid prices shifts in our community. Sure enough I locate over $2500usd in singles within 30min of binder browsing. I stack the cards in piles at various price points, the dealer signs off on a $1100cdn sale price after some haggling down from $1400cdn and we conclude our business with a handshake and a smile.

Now pause and ask yourself: did I rip him off? Or more to the point, was the transaction ethical?

MTGFinance In A Nutshell
MTGFinance In A Nutshell

I assert that it most certainly was, and here’s why:

1) No one was lying, causing distractions, fast talking or otherwise obscuring the action

2) We’re responsible adults responsible for our own decisions, and his decision was to publicly offer the products in question at the prices we both agreed to

3) Interest is the first sign of market shifts, and he waved it off, likely because;

4) He clearly saw value in the cash flow

Now let’s examine what could have happened had I chosen the opposite path, a path some people might demand I take to achieve perfect transparency.  I could have, for instance, tallied the cards, and engaged in this conversation:

  •  Me: I think these cards are worth essentially double what you have them priced at, about $2500.
  • Vendor: Thanks! My new price is $2500. So would you like to buy them at that price?
  • Me: No thanks.
  • Vendor: Oh, why not? Don’t you recognize them as being worth this price on average in the market?
  • Me: Yes.
  • Vendor: So then you’re backing out because you can get them somewhere else cheaper?
  • Me: No, I’m backing out because I believe these magic cards are investments, and as such, must operate under the principle of opportunity costs.
  • Vendor: How’s that?
  • Me: Because you’ve reset the price to market average, there are now other options I believe will yield better returns within the same time frame, and my role as a market maker dictates that to achieve an efficient market I must act logically and efficiently and pursue my goals while you pursue yours. When the value of my potential returns matches your value in cash flow, a market action will occur and we will both be equally happy. In this particular case I have clearly spent a lot more time than you tracking and memorizing current price averages. This knowledge has value, and I just conferred that value to you as a gift, creating an imbalance in our market making potential and ensuring we cannot achieve market action. You see, I came to your booth loaded with efficiency, free cash flow and risk taking potential. You were carrying inefficiency, low cash flow and lower risk potential, as expressed by your willingness at any time to convert cards that could potentially accelerate in value for cash that averages a much lower interest rate unless reinvested in greater prospects. This insinuated that any (or all) of the following was true:

a) your time was too valuable to make re-pricing your inventory to match current demand worthwhile

b) your potential reinvestment opportunities exceeded my perceived net present value of the cards in question

Further, our lack of prior exchange of social value through camaraderie, emotional support or familial ties makes my donation of value result in an unequal match. I’ve sacrificed over $1000 in value for no discernable benefit as other market actors were already willing to sell me these cards at the newly requested price, which I’ve only just now made you aware of. As such instead of heading home with $1100 cash, you’re heading home with $600 in booth fees, time wasted and no opportunity to reinvest.  I’m heading home with $1400 less profit potential at a risk level previously determined to be acceptable, and a non-friend I’ve donated goodwill to without any return on my investment.

Final score: No one is winning. The market is broken.

StarCityGames Is Not The Market Price

So having taken a closer look at the dynamics and difficulties of trying to manually price thousands of magic cards, let’s examine where these kind of scenarios have led the LGS/Vendor segment of our hobby ecosystem.

Price Progress?
Price Progress?

Back in the pre-internet days, Inquest and Scrye magazine published monthly with card pricing lists taken from surveys of selected vendors around North America. This system led to many golden opportunities for savvy players who could spot a rising tide for certain cards at the tournament level and translate that into smart actions at their local gaming stores before the new issues came out the following month. It also tended to result in highly specialized local economies, with card pricing varying oddly from community to community based on local play styles, format focuses and house rules.

The advent of the Internet, and in particular the ability to view past transactions on Ebay yanked us all into an entirely new era, with easy access to global price data, a trend that has only accelerated in the last 5 years with big data sites like MTGPrice.com, MTGOGoldfish.com, mtgowikiprice.com and TCGPlayer.com. Better information, made widely available should be good for everyone but coupled with the rise of the smartphone has empowered players to take advantage of low margin (aka inefficient) vendors, as well as lazy players, who can’t keep up with pricing shifts. (Now to be fair, vendors have done this to players since the beginning, using buy list tactics that most would consider normal business.)

At the same time, the tendency for commerce to centralize within niches online, leads to the appearance of major market actors with high efficiency such as StarCityGames.com. SCG brand equity then leads to their price lists being used as a mutually agreeable reference point for market actors seeking to equalize value and achieve market action. Other vendors then go a step further, seeking to achieve efficiency and close more market actions through the simplest course of action: copying SCG pricing.

This has lead us to entirely new era of Magic pricing: The Age of Oligopolistic Tendencies.

As opposed to a monopoly which is typically defined as a single market actor holding unfair stores of value due to legal, procedural, resource access or other major advantages, an oligopoly is typically characterized by a relatively few market actors disguising their inefficiency by agreeing to fixed pricing that ensures certain margins and leads to permanently unequal value exchanges while maintaining a relatively stable model of market sharing for the vendors. These situations are especially exacerbated in the case of goods essential to living such as food, warmth, clothing and shelter. Though no true oligopolistic cabal exists in the MTG world, the tendency of inefficient vendors to leverage platforms like Crystal Commerce to track and average the prices of the largest vendors to set their own pricing, is leading us towards a magic ecology with oligopolistic tendencies. (It’s worth noting here that between TCGPlayer, Ebay and PucaTrade “true” market pricing is still widely available and in play.)

Put simply: If everyone uses the same pricing, originally set by the most efficient vendor, no actor will ever be able to achieve further efficiency or recognize the true value of their potential market actions. This is true because in theory and practice, the scenario for every market actor is unique, and their price should be uniquely customized to that scenario.

Eg) Store X has $2500 (SCG pricing) in singles for sale. They set their price on this pile of cards to $2500. A player enters the premises and offers $2300, and the LGS declines because Crystal Commerce says their price is on target. The problem here is that price comparisons only establish the cash value of a transaction, and utterly fail to establish the other forms of value and opportunity cost. For instance if Store X can achieve higher inventory turnover rates, lower overhead, lower product costs, enjoys different tax scenarios, or any number of other value stores, they may be economically incorrect to turn down the deal.

This is a key concept, so let’s dig deeper. Check out this table of value store calculations on a theoretical booster box of Conspiracy being sold by an LGS with greater efficiencies than SCG, but priced to match on the premise that SCG is using the “correct” price:

LGS X StarCityGames
Product Cost to Vendor $74 $72
Posted Sale Price $99.50 $99.50
Turnover Rate (Days to Retrieve Capital) 180 216
Investment Periods/Annum 2.027 1.689
Corporate Tax Rate 15% 35%
Overhead/Box/Days to Turnover $3.50 $7
Gross Yield%Gross Yield

Yield Net Overhead

%Yield Net Overhead

Yield After Tax

Effective Annual Yield After Tax**r = (1+i)^

$25.50/box34.45%

$22/box

29.72%

25.27%
51.89%

$27.5038.19%

$20.50

28.47%

18.50%
33.20%

So what exactly does that math demonstrate?

Price Efficiency Achieved?
Price Efficiency Achieved?

Well, in essence it demonstrates that an LGS with access to non-revenue value stores can achieve greater return on investment than a major market actor. In reality, some of these stores are quite possible (better tax scenarios) while others (think overhead/box sold) are highly unlikely due to economies of scale and scope. Even still, assuming we accept that an LGS could achieve more efficient capital returns, why does that matter?

It matters because higher yield would allow them to lower box prices on the premise that lowering prices below SCG pricing would increase overall sales, and because we already know the LGS has superior returns on those sales, they can make more money overall by undercutting their larger competitor. Here’s the kind of graph we’re talking about.

Note that the demand curve shifts out when the price drops, resulting in higher overall sales, because, duh, more players will buy more boxes if they’re cheaper.

Here’s some more math on the two possible scenarios (for illustration only, since just how much demand may increase based on lowered pricing depends on many factors beyond the ken of this discussion).  We’ll even assume lowered box costs as volume increases, though the plateaus would be fairly broad in our ecosystem:

Cost/Box Revenue/Box Boxes Sold Total Profit
Scenario A: SCG Price Match $74 $99.50 186 $4743
Scenario B: Set Lower Price $73 $97.50 223 $5463.50

The LGS has dropped their price slightly, increased sales by about 20% and achieved a slight inventory cost reduction as reward for their higher volume (because they contributed to their wholesalers own inventory turnover rate), leading to an overall increase of 15%.

Surprised?  You shouldn’t be, because this is EXACTLY what a properly functioning free market economy is supposed to look like. A healthy economy needs the friction of market actors jostling for position to trend towards the most efficient combination of price and alternate value that maximizes both shareholder return for the companies and utility for the consumers.

Note that this is functionally identical to my trip to the LGS with noticeably lower prices because in encountering that actor I had no way to know whether they were:

a) seeking value through inaction (due to the value of their time)

or

b) deliberately lowering prices to increase inventory sell through and capture more market share.

The real point however, is that it just doesn’t matter why they were priced lower because whether their price positioning was intentional, representative of alternate value stores or representative of their inefficiency, the market needs the match tested to find equilibrium. If the match is efficient, I will return, repeat similar transactions and the vendor will thrive if their choices are in fact efficient, applying competitive pressures to SCG and other larger market actors to lower prices for more and more players. If it is inefficient, I may one day return to find the vendor closed, and I will move on to market matches with the most efficient vendor I can find, and the cycle continues. I mean I miss those Friday night hunts for value at Blockbuster, but I can’t argue that the shift from $30 in late fees/month to $10 unlimited access to content from my couch via Netflix isn’t the purest representation of market evolution in motion.

The Boundaries of Ethical Trading

Resist the Dark Side
Resist the Dark Side

First off, I’m a long standing liberal. In fact, up here in Canada, we have parties further left than the Democrats and I vote them with pride. Ultimately I consider myself a social pragmatist, but I reserve the right to skew the energy I spend on socially conscious commerce in favor of essential rather than non-essential goods. That means I tend to transfer value to causes that are improving the overall standard of living more efficiently than I ever could directly. As MTG is an upper middle class game with no essential utility, I am definitely on the side of economics vs. social good, but only so far as I believe they are in fact one in the same in terms of achieving market efficiency in the Magic commons. By this I mean that good economics will lead to the healthiest overall community, a fact I’m sure Hasbro drills into the WOTC exec at every opportunity.

Remember a few years back when they yanked global tournament support, ditched the old rating system and abandoned nationals? We all yelled a lot, but the game has only gotten better since, presumably because the internal reallocation of resources has made the entire operation more efficient at attracting users and increased the overall utility to our community broadly despite the painful transition.

Further, there is a huge difference between accepting a listed price, and engaging in more nefarious acts. Here’s some scenarios I DON’T support:

  • Duping kids is off limits, simply because they aren’t legal market actors at all and cannot be expected to act rationally.
  • Noobs are off limits, largely because being kind to new players yields social scenarios that largely outweigh any meager profits that could be made off their single copy of Jace. I’m not above dumping 1000 commons on someone in a swap for a $50 rare, but I always make sure they know the score, and they’re rarely concerned since variety > power in the early days of trading.
  • Switching price tags, confusing vendors when busy, lying about condition, delaying payments and failing to honor posted prices (a personal pet peeve) are all forms of theft because they represent non-voluntary transfers of value.

In the end, I’ve written this article to make one simple point: you are no more responsible to “correct” the pricing of a vendor than they are to “correct” their pricing when you need a Snapcaster Mage ten minutes before the start of the GP.

I’m also asserting that such acts of price adjustment, are in facts acts of economic and/or social charity, resulting in the transference of hard earned value from one market actor to another without justification.  And while you may feel good about doing it, you may in fact be injuring the health of the MTG economy as a whole by failing to exert the pressures that lead to maximum market efficiency and the lowest possible price for playing this beautiful game.

Now you may say “hey, wait a minute, I hang out at my LGS every day, I’ve known the owner for years and I need to look him in the eye when we trade. This guy gives me deals, runs a good scene and he’s always got snacks on hand for Commander night.”

My response is that you and the owner are not simple market actors, but something closer to friends (or at least peers), in your scenario, and are by definition engaged in a barter economy where you trade value in terms other than just cash, and in doing so you keep things just as equal as if you had bought him out of a common box worth of Simian Spirit Guides. When you notify him every time his pricing seems low, you are in essence investing the value of your knowledge into your favorite hangout and inevitably expecting that value to yield dividends. You may consider yourself the altruistic sort, but when push comes to shove, if you save him from buyout after buyout and he won’t even put aside a Conspiracy box for you, you are unlikely to continue the exchange.

To wit, nor should you.

 James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994. 

Weekend Recap for 5/31/14

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Martyr’s Bond (Commander)
From $1.74 to $2.00 (14.94%)

I got really excited when I read this the first time. I dreamed of a Grave Pact effect that could extend to all sorts of permanents.

Using a Planeswalker’s ultimate ability would get rid of opposing Planeswalkers.

Artifacts and enchantments could be sacrificed for good effect.

That is magical Christmas land. If someone wants to trade you for this at $2 then I say jump at it.

It is too expensive and unreliable unless you build combos around it. You could usually just use Planar Cleansing to get the desired effect without all of the work.

The name is generic enough that this could show up in any set. I think the honeymoon is over.

9. Apocalypse (Tempest)
From $3.09 to $3.59 (16.18%)

It is a rare from an old set on the reserve list. It has a massive impact in multiplayer games and it currently buylists for $0.24 more than you can buy it for.

I would grab as many $2 copies as you could find before everyone updates the price to $4.

8. Shirei, Shizo’s Caretaker (Betrayers of Kamigawa)
From $2.29 to $2.73 (19.21%)

He is a great budget Commander from a set that was printed long ago. He has an interesting effect and works well with other Commanders has well. His flavor makes him difficult to reprint outside of supplemental products.

He can still be found for $1.48 and Buylists for almost $2.

I really cannot make a better recommendation than that.

Remember he is insane as a build around me or as the Commander for a Shadowborn Apostle decks. The Apostles will be rotating soon. I would look to grab as many as you can find if they dip in price.

7. Nin, the Pain Artist (Commander)
From $2.68 to $3.31 (23.51%)

Every time I read this card I want to play it with Stuffy Doll and Mogg Maniac.

All of the original Commanders are being targeted due to scarcity and growth in the interest in the format.

She can get you cards, play as repeatable removal and is one of the many cards that is only better with Nekusar.

Due to only using two instead of three colors she is easier to reprint as Basandra, Battle Seraph has shown us in Conspiracy.

Nin, the Pain Artist is still priced to move. I would look at Ruhan of the Fomori and Zedruu the Greathearted for other cheap Commanders with room to grow.

6. Konda’s Banner (Champions of Kamigawa)
From $4.07 to $5.13 (26.04%)

This is an excellent Commander card. You always have a Legendary creature ready to equip it that shares a color with every other creature in your deck.

Even with a minor tribal thing this can be very helpful.

This has been growing slowly but steadily until recently.

It is difficult to reprint outside of a supplemental product because its name is tied to a character on a very unpopular plane.

This is something I would be glad to have in my trade binder.

There is a negative spread on this which is an excellent opportunity for arbitrage or aggressive growth in the near future.

5. Courser of Kruphix (Born of the Gods)
From $9.99 to $13.14 (31.53%)

Courser of Kruphix has been making its mark on Standard and Legacy.

Courser and Domri Rade or Archangel of Thune can make for some exciting turns.

It has also been played to good effect in Modern Jund decks.

This is part of what has pushed it to the next level. It requires a heavy commitment to green or excellent mana fixing so I think it will definitely surpass $15 but I don’t think it will hit the $20 mark without some serious help from M15.

Born of the Gods will not be drafted as heavily as normal with Conspiracy being such a hyped event. I think this will help Courser of Kruphix.

I would sell into the hype just after it crests $15. You make not make all of the money but if you got these in a draft or back when these were $5 to $6 you should be sitting pretty.

I would hold onto foils for Modern as those keep their value better.

4. Memory Jar  (Urza’s Legacy)
From $4.22 to $5.59 (32.46%)

What can I say about a card so powerful it was the subject of an emergency ban mere weeks after it was printed?

It is somehow so broken that it made it into From the Vault: Relics despite being on the reserved list.

It is restricted in Vintage but for is legal in Commander.

It is completely insane in normal situations but when you make each player draw seven cards Nekusar the Mindrazer starts salivating.

This no longer enables crazy combos. Now it enables widespread death and destruction.

Many players of MTGO will be giving this card a spin as part of Vintage Masters and that can only enhance interested.

I don’t think you can lose trading for these. They will always have a home in Cubes and Vintage.

3. Breathstealer’s Crypt (Visions)
From $0.99 to $1.36 (37.37%)

This little known rare from Visions is on the reserved list. Most people (myself included) did not even remember that it exists.

It is excellent for a Nekusar the Mindrazer Commander deck but also works in other Dimir or Grixis Control decks.

It has only started getting attention and some places still have it listed below dollar. Others have it as $2 on its way to $3.

It currently has a negative spread meaning some Buylists are paying more than the lowest price you can purchase it at.

We have already seen Nekusar cause rises in price in a number of rares and this one can still be found cheap.

I would suggest striking while the iron is hot.

2. Nether Shadow (5th Edtion)
From $2.30 to $3.29 (43.04%)

Manaless Dredge continues to be one of the most affordable ways to give Legacy a try. It works on a completely different axis as most decks.

Instead of generating card advantage through drawing cards it actively tries to mill its entire deck then Dredge Return a Flayer of the Hatebound in a gigantic Golgari Grave-Troll.

It has some ways to fight through traditional graveyard hate like Deathrite Shaman and makes your opponents Wastelands look like a joke.

Nether Shadow and an ever increasing graveyard make playing cards like Cabal Therapy and Dread Return easy to do.

I expect all of the cheaper components of the deck to continue to rise as this deck catches on.

The deck plays a lot of commons, uncommon and budget rares. I would grab some cheap foils like Flayer of the Hatebound and Balustrade Spy. Their effects are essential to the deck and difficult to replace.

1. Decree of Pain (Commander’s Arsenal)
From $6.94 to $9.99 (43.95%)

When you are building a Cube or making a Commander deck you want powerful and unique cards that jump out and make a splash. There are few ways to shift the momentum of a game than to wipe the board and load up your hand at the same time.

Both of these formats love their foil cards and there are only two ways to get your fix.

You can get the original Scourge foil or for a third the cost you can get the new artwork from Commander’s Arsenal.

I had discounted this card because of the amount of copies flooding the market from the Mind Seize Commander 2013 deck. They were not foil but they were exerting a lot of downward pressure on the existing copies.

Once players get into the format after tinkering with their ninety eight card decks they want to start pimping their decks. When they do this will be the copy they target.

I see this one continuing to climb. There are still some other targets from Commander’s Arsenal that are available at low costs. I am looking at possible Commanders Vela the Night-Clad, Diaochan, Artful Beauty and Edric, Spymaster of Trest which has been seeing some Legacy play and has come down considerably recently.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Necropotence (5th Edition)
From $8.39 to $7.86 (-6.32%)

Last week I said the only foil copy of this card was the one from From the Vault: Exiled.

Several readers kept me honest by reminding me that the Deckmasters copy has the original art and is one of the few foils printed in that set. Thank you readers!

This card was recently reprinted online in Vintage Masters. It is a great candidate for any monoblack build in Cube or Commander. It is restricted in Vintage but any casual deck will welcome it through the end of time. I see this as a hiccup.

It is a part of Magic’s history as well as being completely broken. This will always be a safe buy and hold.

4. Mutavault (M14)
From $29.40 to $27.48 (-6.53%)

Mutavault has been one of the most played cards its entire time in Standard. It was around $33 before it was reprinted in M14 and I think that price memory counts for a lot.

It is still used in several Modern decks including Merfolk, Faeries and others.

I don’t think it will have quite as rocky a road as most cards do upon rotation but I think picking them up at $15 to $20 around rotation is quite realistic.

Anyone who plays Standard but not Modern will probably be trying to get these out of their binders soon. This could be a good opportunity for someone who is willing to wait a few years for prices to get above $30 again.

3. Misdirection (Mercadian Masques)
From $29.98 to $27.54 (-8.14%)

This rare is played a surprise in Legacy decks like Sneak and Show and Cephalid Breakfast.

Your LGS is about to get an influx of them as Conspiracy is drafted.

I expect the original foils to retain most of their value but I suspect the regular printing will be taking a bath. I would move them sooner rather than later.

2. Domri Rade (Gatecrash)
From $19.99 to $17.37 (-13.11%)

Domri Rade still has some fight in him. As mentioned above he is best friends with Courser of Kruphix. They two together provide a stream of card advantage.

His time in Standard is coming to an end. He has not seen much adoption in Modern yet.

He is a strong planeswalker and will always retain some casual appeal but I expect him to dip below $10 in the coming months.

I would get rid of him.

1. True-Name Nemesis (Commander 2013)
From $29.98 to $24.78 (-17.34%)

True-Name Nemesis was recently featured in the winning deck in the SCG Somerset Legacy Open. There were ten out of a possible thirty two copies in the Top 8 alone.

So why the dip?

It’s been a rough month for the fish.

The first reason is simple supply and demand.

Stores can order two copies of Mind Seize for and three other Commander 2013 decks instead of just one of each. Wizards has made Mind Seize a box full of value but it is no longer a $20 bill sitting on the shelf that leaves you with ninety eight free cards.

The second reason is that Conspiracy has announced card called Council’s Judgement which can just exile him despite protection, shroud or hexproof. For the price of an Oblivion Ring you can vote for any nonland permanent and exile it in a duel.

I expect it to shake up the Legacy metagame.

True-Name Nemesis is still a strong player but the invulnerable just became vulnerable. The $40 days are over. I expect it to settle around $15 to $20 depending on the metagame.