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Weekend Recap – Legacy in Los Angeles

By Jim Marsh

Every week cards from Magic: the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most, and the factors behind why those changes occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Wasteland

$109.98 to $133.99 (21.8%)

This card is no stranger to anyone who plays or follows Legacy. Strip Mine is banned and this is the Land Destroying Real Estate of choice. It can and does work in pretty much every deck in the format. In fact, it is pretty hard to come up with a Legacy deck that does not make use of the Tempest uncommon. There is a reason that it is the most played land in Legacy. \

Legacy as a format is still vibrant and strong. Even with articles lamenting its oncoming death. Wasteland is also a desirable inclusion in Commander, Cube and pretty much any format that will allow it.

The power of a land that can destroy your opponent’s nonbasics is only amplified in a format with such backbreaking lands as The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale, Karakas, Rishadan Port, Cavern of Souls, Mishra’s Factory, Creeping Tar Pit, and Dual Lands.

A lot of Legacy decks don’t even run many, if any basic lands, so it is a target rich environment.

I expect this card to just keep climbing.

 

9. Grafdigger’s Cage

$2.20 to $2.71 (23.2%)

This is the quintessential sideboard card. For one mana you can turn off entire strategies. Suddenly Green Sun’s Zenith, Reanimate, Exhume, Snapcaster Mage and friends look pretty silly.

Innistrad has been out of print for about a year now, and given the name, it is not easy to reprint. It might show up in a supplemental product, but those rarely have pure hate cards in them.

I have long felt that this card did not deserve to be considered bulk, and it seems like the rest of the world agrees.

You may find a few trade partners that are still willing to give these away as toss-ins or to make room in their binder for something more exciting.

8. Twilight Mire

$19.99 to $25.48 (27.5%)

Modern prices have been increasing across the board recently, and it looks like Twilight Mire’s time to shine is upon us.

It can help us get our mana ready to cast Abrupt Decay, Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant or Scavenging Ooze and not break a sweat.

It is showing up in Modern Jund builds, as well as the G/B and Junk Obliterator decks.

I would take a good long look at the Shadowmoor filter lands. Right now everyone is (rightfully) clamoring for the reprinting of Scalding Tarn and friends, but after the influx of Shocklands in Return to Ravnica, these can play an important role in fixing your mana without requiring an investment of $100 per land in your mana base.

They are usually played as a 1 or 2 of in color relevant decks, but if people protest the price of Zendikar fetches, more and more will be tempted to experiment with filter lands.

7. Seizan, Perverter of Truth

$2.52 to $3.28 (30.2%)

In Kamigawa every rare creature was a legendary creature. Some of them were hits. Some were misses. Some have been sleepers for a long time. 

With the rise of the Commander format, a lot of people have been dusting off old Legendary creatures and giving them a spin either as a Commander or as part of their 99.

Seizan, Perverter of Truth is one of those, and giving everyone a free Night’s Whisper (or Sign in Blood) each turn is an interesting effect.

Normally a symmetrical effect like this starts with you on the raw end of the deal. You pay the mana and your opponents all get the extra cards before you do. (Think of tapping out for Howling Mine.)

This time at least that means they all get to pay life before you do.

He is also a strong possible inclusion in Nekuzar, the Mindrazer decks, which breaks the symmetry right in half and forces each of your opponents to take at lose at least 5 life a turn. That adds up quickly, and that may be why Seizan has moved from Bulk Rare to a decent price tag in the past few weeks.

6. Volcanic Island

$180.50 to $240.12 (33.0%)

There are a finite amount of Dual lands from Alpha, Beta and Unlimited in existence. I don’t know what that amount is, but as the amount of players grow and the opportunity to play Legacy looks more enticing, people will be fighting over these scarce resources.

You need a good strong, consistent mana base in Legacy (or any format) and the original Dual Lands are as strong and consistent as the get. They are restricted and are largely considered among the most stable collector’s items in the history of the game short of the Power 9.

I don’t think we will ever see these any cheaper than they are now. It’s been growing aggressively, and I would not be surprised to see the other Dual Lands (especially the Blue ones) hurry to catch up.

5. Hurkyl’s Recall

$14.99  to $23.90 (49.1%)

What do you do when you are playing Modern and the most aggressive, successful deck in the format is Affinity? How about a one sided Upheaval? For two mana?

What do you bounce? An Aether Vial? That’s a bargain.

Besides being in the sideboard for Modern Merfolk, Ad Nauseam, Faeries and other decks, it was also the subject of a recent buy out.

I see it coming back down, and quickly. It has been printed 5 times. It is a sideboard card against one deck, where a lot of sideboard cards have versatility that can be used against different strategies.

I would not get in on this (but try to move any you have that you don’t need to play with in the mean time.)

4. Sewer Nemesis

$3.08 to $4.67 (51.6%)

This card has only been printed once, in the original batch of Commander decks.

It has not seen any place in any competitive deck ever played, and probably won’t.

It is pretty fun in Mill decks that use creatures like this and Consuming Aberration.

Phenax, God of Deception loves cards like this. It is a perfect fit in a Phenax Commander deck, and the supply is pretty low.

I am surprised to see it jump this much (it has been hovering about $2 since it was printed) and don’t see it going up much, but I bet some people will still give it to you as trade evener if you ask.

3. Ancient Tomb

$16.66 to $35.00 (110.1%)

Ancient Tomb is an important part of certain Legacy decks that need mana now to power out something gross and end the game.

These decks include Imperial Painter’s, OmniTell, Sneak and Show, MUD, etc.

It has steadily been growing for the past several months, and it has just started to explode. Its power level makes it unlikely to be reprinted in any Standard format, and even supplemental products are questionable. It was included in From the Vaults: Realms, but other than that this uncommon from Tempest has really made its presence known.

I don’t think it will hold onto this aggressive growth for long. It will dip back, not quite to the $10 it was at earlier, but probably back down to $20 or so, and then begin to grow again steadily.

I even think it will get back to $35 eventually, but not for a while yet.

2. Food Chain

$5.00 to $11.26  (125.2%)

Food Chain? Really? On Sunday it made the semifinals in a Los Angeles Legacy SCG event, but this feels like it came out of nowhere.

It has been a $5 card for a while, but the combo with Food Chain and Misthollow Griffin lets you get infinite mana and cheat out Emrakul, the Aeons Torn and several other value creatures.

It is interesting as a metagame choice, but compared to other Legacy decks, it seems a little unwieldy.

The price got as high as $15 before settling down to $11 and I think it will settle even further.

Even still, if you had some sitting in your trade binder, Sunday was your lucky day.

1. Leonin Arbiter

$0.89 to $2.77 (211.2%)

Now there’s a spec I am happy to see. Modern has a lot of decks that want to tutor for various cards. Birthing Pod and Chord of Calling want creatures. Ranger of Eos wants friends. Everyone wants to use their Misty Rainforest to find a Stomping Ground or Breeding Pool

Leonin Arbiter says not without a cost. It sets people behind when they want to use their fetchlands.

It is slows down Birthing Pod.

It makes your Path to Exile so much better.

All while providing a 2/2 to block and attack with.

It gets used in Modern GW Hatebears, Death and Taxes, UW Tempo decks and a few variations on each theme. It has been a Bulk Rare for far too long.

Modern is an increasingly expensive format. Sometimes that really bothers people. Sometimes it is just time for others to realize how good certain cards are.

If Aven Mindcensor can be $12, I see no reason why Leonin Arbiter can’t be $3. (Or even $5!)

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Cabal Therapy

$15.59 to $13.97 (-10.4%)

I don’t think that Cabal Therapy is going away any time soon. It provides too much information and punch for its cost to ever be considered anything other than strong.

Recently it went from steady growth at $10 to an overnight jump to $20. Like Ancient Tomb, it is now settling again. I think it’s settling is just about over.

I probably have misnamed my Losers of the Week.

I think a better term would be Bargains of the Week.

Think of this as getting a coupon for 10% off Cabal Therapy. Or 30% off the high point.

I should just remind you that everyone playing ANT, Dredge, Nic-Fit, Manaless Dredge, Oops! All Spells!, anything with Young Pyromancer and more will all want their Cabal Therapys.

4. Old Man of the Sea

$52.38 to $59.98 (-11.9%)

Old Man of the Sea has been $40 for a while. It recently jumped to $60 for almost no reason. There is no demand from people who want to play the card, just collect it.

Are there really that many fans of this effect? Using creatures to steal other creatures is great, but there are other powerful ways to do it.

You can use Gilded Drake or Sower of Temptation.

You can use Threads of Disloyalty or Vedalken Shackles.

They all have more flexibility or power.

Yes, it’s on the Restricted List. Yes, it was only printed in Arabian Nights, but it bought to sit in a binder, not in a deck.

I see this one going back to the $40 where it came from.

3. Skullclamp

$6.20 to $5.44 (-12.3%)

This is a tough card to price. It is not played competitively because it is banned in both Modern and Legacy.

It got reprinted in both From the Vault: Exiled and in the original Commander decks.

It is still very powerful in the Commander format, but that is one of the few places you can play it. It was sitting at a pretty reasonable $3 to $4 for a while but tried to correct to $6. I think that was a little too much, which is why I think it will come down to $5.

It combos with pretty much any deck that can produce small creatures and wants to draw cards, so I don’t think Wizards will unban it any time soon. If they did the jump would be amazing (see Bitterblossom.)

2. Dragonlair Spider

$5.49 to $4.79 (-12.8%)

This is another Casual exclusive. It has seen two printings, and I would not be surprised to see it in Conspiracy. It cries out “play with me in a multiplayer environment!”

The past month has been interesting, with it fighting to get from $3 to almost $6 in value, but there has not been enough interest to sustain it. Maybe $4 is about right for now.

At least Ruric Thar and Jund Commanders love you Dragonlair Spider.

1. Silent-Blade Oni

$8.79 to $7.48 (-14.9%)

The creature type Demon Ninja looks so cool, how could it not be a winner? While the effect looks cool on paper (and I hope someone has gotten to cast a free Cruel Ultimatum with it!) it is rather expensive and cumbersome for all but the most casual of decks. 

In Commander you can hope your opponent has an Overwhelming Forces in their hand and not just a Rampant Growth.

It has been a $4 to $5 card for a while, and tried to get to $9, but it looks like it is on its way back down.

Ninjas are a personal favorite creature type, but there is a reason why Ninja of the Deep Hours and Ink-Eyes, Servant of Oni are the most popular.

Their effects all but guarantee card advantage and are reasonably costed.

Six mana is a bit much for an effect that may not even have a valid target.

I’d stay away until it get back below $5.

Magic Online and You: An Intro

By: Camden Clark

Many people have little understanding of how important Magic Online is to MTG finance.

They are really missing out. If you fail to take full advantage of Magic Online, you too are missing on some valuable opportunities.

Think about it: Magic Online is where all the pros play. Moreover, it is the de facto deck testing platform for anyone heading into a competitive event. These are people who will pay any sum to have an opportunity to test a deck or just play high-level Magic. This means that there are huge speculation opportunities on Magic Online, as well as having one of the best platforms to determine the progression of cards in paper.

Let’s go over some basics of how the Magic Online economy works.

Event Tickets are the currency of Magic Online. They are used to purchase cards from bots and enter into events. Each one is worth a little less than a dollar, but you can buy them for a dollar from the Wizards store on Magic Online. However, almost everything can and should be purchased outside of the Wizards store by trading with bots or other players.

Bots are what drive Magic Online’s economy. They provide the liquidity for players who want to buy cards. They make their money through occasionally absurd buy/sell margins (especially on eternal cards). They automatically perform buy and sell orders and are basically an automatic cash cow for whoever is running the bot. More on this later.

Most things are cheaper to buy from a bot than buy from Wizard’s store. The most notable example of this is booster packs. Boosters get into the system as rewards from constructed events and draft events, and are used to enter into drafts. Rarely does a current draft set booster pack cost the official four tickets from a bot. Usually, they are at least twenty cents to a dollar cheaper.

Typically, Magic Online card prices are significantly cheaper than their paper counterparts, with a few exceptions (most notably Force of Will).

So how do you get started with utilizing Magic Online?

Magic Online is unforgiving to mistakes. It is quite easy to buy a seemingly perfect speculation opportunity but make some serious mistakes and lose money. That being said, let’s go over some pitfalls first:

Investing in cards with high buy/sell margins

This is a major pitfall of online investment.

Many eternal stapes have extreme margins between the buy and sell prices on the bots. This is because of their low volume. Bots trade standard staples at an exponentially higher rate, thus holding eternal staples is a liability.

Let’s say you purchase a Legacy staple at fifty tickets (essentially dollars). However, the buyback price on the bots is currently thirty-five tickets. That means the sell price would have to go up at least fifteen tickets to be profitable. Those are huge margins that could leave you with significant deficits. Moreover, these cards don’t move in price very quickly. Your money could be tied in a fifty dollar spec for months. That’s not good value.

This is why, in general, I don’t recommend investing in Legacy yet online, especially with the looming Vintage Masters set.

Buying event tickets from the store

This is a small issue, but can be important if you are moving a large volume of event tickets. If you are inside the United States, last time I checked, you pay a dollar per event ticket with no tax at the Wizards store inside Magic Online. This is subject to being changed, of course. For many who aren’t in the US, there can be insane upcharges with tax. Thus, it’s almost a necessity to purchase event tickets outside of the Wizards store.

There are many places to buy event tickets. A quick google search will give you the best ones (I don’t want to endorse one over another-you be the judge). You can often get event tickets for $.97-$.99 per ticket. That’s not too good to be true, that’s just the going rate.

Under this section, I might as well put some general tips when starting out on Magic Online. Don’t open any product you get when starting. Sell your booster pack; you can typically get about two to three event tickets for it.

Don’t play cube unless you want to throw money away.

Getting screwed by the bots

It is very easy to let yourself lose a ton of value by dealing with bots. You will always round up the amount you are paying for cards up to the next event ticket (you cannot have a decimal of event tickets on Magic Online). However, the bot will save your credit. Obviously, this requires trust on your part that the bot will correctly log the amount of credit you have and stay online. I would recommend keeping a word document of the bots you have credit with and searching those for your cards first. That’s a mistake I made.

Make sure to shop around for the best prices of cards. It is certainly possible to pay a dollar or more than you would at a different bot. I have also paid up to five dollars less than the going rate because of an error in bot maintenance. Be mindful of the going rate (MTGOTraders is a ceiling, look for prices above this).

To be honest, the best way to make money directly from Magic Online is to maintain your own bot. That is a topic that goes far beyond the scope of this article. Stay tuned for that.

Those were some pitfalls. It will be confusing at first, and you may make some mistakes.

The key question is: how does this translate into paper investment?

All of the best players play on Magic Online. They test their decks here. They play with other high level grinders here. Where else can you face this kind of competition virtually twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week?

An invaluable gauge for where prices will be is the Magic Online tournaments called Daily Events. Although the name implies they are “daily”, there are Standard tournaments that fire several times a day, with Modern having about half as many of these tournaments.

You can pick up on the latest technology by looking at the tournaments results that are posted every week on dailymtg. Being cognizant of this will vastly improve your ability to make good decisions.

Another useful feature of Magic Online is being able to see good inventory data.

One of the greatest features of Pro Trader here on MTGPrice is the inventory data from retailers. It allows you to see when certain cards are experiencing a buyout and to move in on those cards.

However, Magic Online is a good supplement to this data.

Once you get a “feel” for how much stock major bots have in cards, it is quite easy to see when that stock is being depleted or is simply too low.

This provides you with a barometer of which cards are going to see price swings in paper too.

It’s difficult to quantify, unfortunately. There is nothing like MTGPrice for MTGO, so it’s mostly up to you to gain the understanding and utilize it.

This is constantly what I’m talking about in my articles. There aren’t any silver bullets for MTG finance, you have to use your intuition as a player to make money.

That is the essence of why you should be on Magic Online. You need to be a part of the culture of Magic in order to be effective in investing in it. Would you invest in a company where you knew nothing about the product it sold?

No.

The same goes for Magic. If you are playing in the same events that the pros are, you will develop your sense as a player and investor. The difference is that the people you are playing with aren’t looking to make money, they want to get better at the game. If you are looking for opportunity while playing Magic Online, it will begin to present itself.

I can go over hundreds of cards that might see drastic increases in price. Is that the most helpful thing to you? Does that help you become a better investor?

Not for the long term.

If I spent this article telling you my picks for the next months, it may help you for the next few months.

How about five years?

You can only become a better investor by investing a bit of yourself, especially when your money is going into a game. In our hearts, we are all still players.

So load up Magic Online. Take it for a spin. It’s mediocre (read: shitty) technology, but it’s the platform that Wizards has made for competitive players to test decks. If you’re not on there, you are missing out.

The Japanese Market

By: JT Neal

First things first, let me introduce myself. I’ve played Magic on and off since Ice Age, albeit only very seriously since Innistrad. I’m an American (Atlantan, to be specific) and I’ve lived in western Japan for the last six years of my life. The first five of those years were mostly spent in rural Shiga, a lovely prefecture with historical castles, Japan’s largest lake… and dismayingly few shops that run Magic events*.

Then, in 2012, I moved to Osaka. Japan’s second-largest city, Osaka is the seat of western Japanese cuisine, comedy and commerce. It also boasts the Nipponbashi district, second only to Tokyo’s Akihabara as a geek mecca. With one move roughly two hours west, I’d gone from Magical famine to feast. Of course, this bounty presented a new threat to my wallet; enter my budding interest in Magic finance.

bigmagic1

I’ll be the first to admit that I’m a new hand at this, and I’m very grateful to be able to share my discoveries in an unfamiliar market with you all here on MTG Price. The Japanese Magic scene is vibrant and worthy of attention, and I think we can all stand to gain by learning a little more about foreign markets. I’d like to start off by going over a few things that might surprise a visitor or new expatriate stepping in to the Japanese scene for the first time. (As a note, all US dollar figures I’ve given are based on the current exchange rate as I write this, of 101.72 yen to the dollar.)

– There’s a surprising amount of English product available. Stores stock English booster packs, and many carry English versions of products such as Commander decks as well. As far as single cards are concerned, most shops that specialize in Magic will have any given card (with the exception of very new or very old sets) available in both English and Japanese.

Between high availability and a relatively older player base, card language is rarely an issue among Japanese players. I know Japanese players who strongly prefer to use English cards, fellow expats who strongly prefer Japanese cards and everyone in between. It’s easy to forget all about the language barrier once you start playing.

buylist

For the most part, stores charge more or less the same amount for non-foils in either language, though very new English cards and older Japanese cards may cost a touch more due to supply issues. For foils, though, all bets are off – if you visit, you’ll probably find that last Japanese foil Stoneforge Mystic you’ve been hunting for, but don’t expect to get a deal on it.

– Many shops explicitly prohibit trading on the premeses. The store where I usually play doesn’t, but trade binders are still a relatively uncommon sight there. There’s plenty of trading going on at Grands Prix and the like, but at least in Osaka, few cards change hands under store roofs. There’s cold comfort in the fact that buylist prices are often pretty competitive. They have to be, because…

– In urban Japan, game stores are typically found close together. If you don’t like the prices or selection at one store, the next may be as far as one city block or as close as another floor in the same building. Some stores handle this competition well, by aiming to have the lowest prices, or stock the fullest discount case, or host the most events. Unfortunately, some deal with it rather poorly; one Osaka branch of a major store has banned all cell phone use, and I’ve seen the staff harass customers for carrying shopping lists.

– And then there’s the elephant in the room: Singles in Japan tend to cost a good bit more than you’re probably used to. Individual packs for in-print sets cost around 300 yen, which is on par with retail price in the United States. Single rares and mythics, however, generally retail for about 120 to 150% more on this side of the Pacific.

This is a fairly consistent rule of thumb, but of course there are outliers. If you’re in Osaka and you need a True-Name Nemesis in your hands today, you’ll spend anywhere from 7000 to a whopping 10000 yen ($69-$99) for the privilege, depending on the store. Tokyo-based tokyomtg.com can hook you up for 5,500($53).

gacha1

On the other hand, while card price fluctuations in Japan tend to match worldwide patterns, they often take some time to catch up to spikes in the United States. For whatever reason (and I’m open to theories), I have noticed this tendency is particularly strong with eternal-playable lands. Zendikar fetchlands, Wasteland, Rishadan Port, even Serra’s Sanctum; all of these afforded at least a week’s time to act after spiking Stateside.

Single prices do look a little more familiar if you browse Yahoo Auctions ((http://auctions.yahoo.co.jp/)), though there you run the same risks you’d run with eBay. Yahoo Auctions can be particularly intimidating to international shoppers, or those without much Japanese ability; if there’s interest I would be happy to provide a quick-and-dirty guide in a future column.

– Legacy is alive and well in Japan. My usual shop in Osaka runs at least two Legacy tournaments every week (it was four until recently, when they replaced two of them with Modern); another nearby spot runs Legacy events alongside their Standard FNM. There are several non-sanctioned Legacy events organized by members of the local community, too, like the popular Known Magician’s Clan ((http://mtgkmc.wix.com/kmc-invitational)). There’s growing interest in Modern among players, but for the most part the events aren’t there yet. I expect that to change as we draw closer to the Modern Grand Prix in nearby Kobe this coming August, though. Standard is, unsurprisingly, very popular as well, and Vintage events pop up from time to time.

I hope this has been at least a little informative or interesting. What would you like to know about the Japanese Magic scene? Please don’t hesitate to contact me here, or on Twitter @JohnnyToNowhere, with any questions/comments/complaints/foreign Gifts Ungiven foils you may have. Thank you for reading!

* Respect due to Dragon Tale ((http://www.dragontale.jp)) in Kusatsu, Shiga

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