By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Martyr’s Bond (Commander)
From $1.74 to $2.00 (14.94%)

I got really excited when I read this the first time. I dreamed of a Grave Pact effect that could extend to all sorts of permanents.

Using a Planeswalker’s ultimate ability would get rid of opposing Planeswalkers.

Artifacts and enchantments could be sacrificed for good effect.

That is magical Christmas land. If someone wants to trade you for this at $2 then I say jump at it.

It is too expensive and unreliable unless you build combos around it. You could usually just use Planar Cleansing to get the desired effect without all of the work.

The name is generic enough that this could show up in any set. I think the honeymoon is over.

9. Apocalypse (Tempest)
From $3.09 to $3.59 (16.18%)

It is a rare from an old set on the reserve list. It has a massive impact in multiplayer games and it currently buylists for $0.24 more than you can buy it for.

I would grab as many $2 copies as you could find before everyone updates the price to $4.

8. Shirei, Shizo’s Caretaker (Betrayers of Kamigawa)
From $2.29 to $2.73 (19.21%)

He is a great budget Commander from a set that was printed long ago. He has an interesting effect and works well with other Commanders has well. His flavor makes him difficult to reprint outside of supplemental products.

He can still be found for $1.48 and Buylists for almost $2.

I really cannot make a better recommendation than that.

Remember he is insane as a build around me or as the Commander for a Shadowborn Apostle decks. The Apostles will be rotating soon. I would look to grab as many as you can find if they dip in price.

7. Nin, the Pain Artist (Commander)
From $2.68 to $3.31 (23.51%)

Every time I read this card I want to play it with Stuffy Doll and Mogg Maniac.

All of the original Commanders are being targeted due to scarcity and growth in the interest in the format.

She can get you cards, play as repeatable removal and is one of the many cards that is only better with Nekusar.

Due to only using two instead of three colors she is easier to reprint as Basandra, Battle Seraph has shown us in Conspiracy.

Nin, the Pain Artist is still priced to move. I would look at Ruhan of the Fomori and Zedruu the Greathearted for other cheap Commanders with room to grow.

6. Konda’s Banner (Champions of Kamigawa)
From $4.07 to $5.13 (26.04%)

This is an excellent Commander card. You always have a Legendary creature ready to equip it that shares a color with every other creature in your deck.

Even with a minor tribal thing this can be very helpful.

This has been growing slowly but steadily until recently.

It is difficult to reprint outside of a supplemental product because its name is tied to a character on a very unpopular plane.

This is something I would be glad to have in my trade binder.

There is a negative spread on this which is an excellent opportunity for arbitrage or aggressive growth in the near future.

5. Courser of Kruphix (Born of the Gods)
From $9.99 to $13.14 (31.53%)

Courser of Kruphix has been making its mark on Standard and Legacy.

Courser and Domri Rade or Archangel of Thune can make for some exciting turns.

It has also been played to good effect in Modern Jund decks.

This is part of what has pushed it to the next level. It requires a heavy commitment to green or excellent mana fixing so I think it will definitely surpass $15 but I don’t think it will hit the $20 mark without some serious help from M15.

Born of the Gods will not be drafted as heavily as normal with Conspiracy being such a hyped event. I think this will help Courser of Kruphix.

I would sell into the hype just after it crests $15. You make not make all of the money but if you got these in a draft or back when these were $5 to $6 you should be sitting pretty.

I would hold onto foils for Modern as those keep their value better.

4. Memory Jar  (Urza’s Legacy)
From $4.22 to $5.59 (32.46%)

What can I say about a card so powerful it was the subject of an emergency ban mere weeks after it was printed?

It is somehow so broken that it made it into From the Vault: Relics despite being on the reserved list.

It is restricted in Vintage but for is legal in Commander.

It is completely insane in normal situations but when you make each player draw seven cards Nekusar the Mindrazer starts salivating.

This no longer enables crazy combos. Now it enables widespread death and destruction.

Many players of MTGO will be giving this card a spin as part of Vintage Masters and that can only enhance interested.

I don’t think you can lose trading for these. They will always have a home in Cubes and Vintage.

3. Breathstealer’s Crypt (Visions)
From $0.99 to $1.36 (37.37%)

This little known rare from Visions is on the reserved list. Most people (myself included) did not even remember that it exists.

It is excellent for a Nekusar the Mindrazer Commander deck but also works in other Dimir or Grixis Control decks.

It has only started getting attention and some places still have it listed below dollar. Others have it as $2 on its way to $3.

It currently has a negative spread meaning some Buylists are paying more than the lowest price you can purchase it at.

We have already seen Nekusar cause rises in price in a number of rares and this one can still be found cheap.

I would suggest striking while the iron is hot.

2. Nether Shadow (5^th Edtion)
From $2.30 to $3.29 (43.04%)

Manaless Dredge continues to be one of the most affordable ways to give Legacy a try. It works on a completely different axis as most decks.

Instead of generating card advantage through drawing cards it actively tries to mill its entire deck then Dredge Return a Flayer of the Hatebound in a gigantic Golgari Grave-Troll.

It has some ways to fight through traditional graveyard hate like Deathrite Shaman and makes your opponents Wastelands look like a joke.

Nether Shadow and an ever increasing graveyard make playing cards like Cabal Therapy and Dread Return easy to do.

I expect all of the cheaper components of the deck to continue to rise as this deck catches on.

The deck plays a lot of commons, uncommon and budget rares. I would grab some cheap foils like Flayer of the Hatebound and Balustrade Spy. Their effects are essential to the deck and difficult to replace.

1. Decree of Pain (Commander’s Arsenal)
From $6.94 to $9.99 (43.95%)

When you are building a Cube or making a Commander deck you want powerful and unique cards that jump out and make a splash. There are few ways to shift the momentum of a game than to wipe the board and load up your hand at the same time.

Both of these formats love their foil cards and there are only two ways to get your fix.

You can get the original Scourge foil or for a third the cost you can get the new artwork from Commander’s Arsenal.

I had discounted this card because of the amount of copies flooding the market from the Mind Seize Commander 2013 deck. They were not foil but they were exerting a lot of downward pressure on the existing copies.

Once players get into the format after tinkering with their ninety eight card decks they want to start pimping their decks. When they do this will be the copy they target.

I see this one continuing to climb. There are still some other targets from Commander’s Arsenal that are available at low costs. I am looking at possible Commanders Vela the Night-Clad, Diaochan, Artful Beauty and Edric, Spymaster of Trest which has been seeing some Legacy play and has come down considerably recently.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Necropotence (5^th Edition)
From $8.39 to $7.86 (-6.32%)

Last week I said the only foil copy of this card was the one from From the Vault: Exiled.

Several readers kept me honest by reminding me that the Deckmasters copy has the original art and is one of the few foils printed in that set. Thank you readers!

This card was recently reprinted online in Vintage Masters. It is a great candidate for any monoblack build in Cube or Commander. It is restricted in Vintage but any casual deck will welcome it through the end of time. I see this as a hiccup.

It is a part of Magic’s history as well as being completely broken. This will always be a safe buy and hold.

4. Mutavault (M14)
From $29.40 to $27.48 (-6.53%)

Mutavault has been one of the most played cards its entire time in Standard. It was around $33 before it was reprinted in M14 and I think that price memory counts for a lot.

It is still used in several Modern decks including Merfolk, Faeries and others.

I don’t think it will have quite as rocky a road as most cards do upon rotation but I think picking them up at $15 to $20 around rotation is quite realistic.

Anyone who plays Standard but not Modern will probably be trying to get these out of their binders soon. This could be a good opportunity for someone who is willing to wait a few years for prices to get above $30 again.

3. Misdirection (Mercadian Masques)
From $29.98 to $27.54 (-8.14%)

This rare is played a surprise in Legacy decks like Sneak and Show and Cephalid Breakfast.

Your LGS is about to get an influx of them as Conspiracy is drafted.

I expect the original foils to retain most of their value but I suspect the regular printing will be taking a bath. I would move them sooner rather than later.

2. Domri Rade (Gatecrash)
From $19.99 to $17.37 (-13.11%)

Domri Rade still has some fight in him. As mentioned above he is best friends with Courser of Kruphix. They two together provide a stream of card advantage.

His time in Standard is coming to an end. He has not seen much adoption in Modern yet.

He is a strong planeswalker and will always retain some casual appeal but I expect him to dip below $10 in the coming months.

I would get rid of him.

1. True-Name Nemesis (Commander 2013)
From $29.98 to $24.78 (-17.34%)

True-Name Nemesis was recently featured in the winning deck in the SCG Somerset Legacy Open. There were ten out of a possible thirty two copies in the Top 8 alone.

So why the dip?

It’s been a rough month for the fish.

The first reason is simple supply and demand.

Stores can order two copies of Mind Seize for and three other Commander 2013 decks instead of just one of each. Wizards has made Mind Seize a box full of value but it is no longer a $20 bill sitting on the shelf that leaves you with ninety eight free cards.

The second reason is that Conspiracy has announced card called Council’s Judgement which can just exile him despite protection, shroud or hexproof. For the price of an Oblivion Ring you can vote for any nonland permanent and exile it in a duel.

I expect it to shake up the Legacy metagame.

True-Name Nemesis is still a strong player but the invulnerable just became vulnerable. The $40 days are over. I expect it to settle around $15 to $20 depending on the metagame.

By: Jared Yost

Question of Value

From what I’ve been seeing around the internet concerning the Modern event deck, you would think most people would rather go to the dentist than see it printed. I’m going to say this right off the bat – this event deck package is actually pretty decent value.

I know, I must be crazy right? Well, here’s the thing – and I actually didn’t figure this out until I looked it up on the mtgsalvation wiki and confirmed it on Wizard’s website – the thing is that this is not just an event deck. It comes with other things! A spindown life counter, 80 sleeves, and a deck box are also included with this deck. Let’s think about this for a minute.

With all the other event decks you don’t get a package like this. Why? Because those event decks are created for Standard. The people playing Standard already have all of their accessories needed to play that format. New players are entering the market all the time, and they sure aren’t starting with Modern as their format of choice. In a format where $1000+ decks are ruling the Top 8 tables why should they? Standard offers them all they need to get their Magic kick and they are happy just playing that format. The entry point for a decent Standard deck is around $500 if you are going after the singles only and don’t care if they are all in perfectly NM condition and foiled out. Event decks help to fill this gap by providing newer players or even existing players with multiple copies of format staples to make their entrance into Standard that much easier.

What the inclusion of the accessories means is that this event deck was never meant to print $100 bills within a $75 retail package. It was never meant for that Modern player who already has a deck and maybe wanted to branch out into another deck. It was meant for the Modern novice, to understand that Modern exists as a format and that they it doesn’t take much to enter the format if you are willing to play budget versions of decks just like the Standard event decks.

New players to Magic may not even be aware that Modern exists. Wizards really only needs to support Standard. Their support of eternal formats will only work as long as there is a new player already playing Standard and is ready to take the leap to an eternal format. Once they see the event deck and play around with it a bit they will recognize that Modern is a format that is both diverse and rewarding to play. Wizards is just making that connection for the new Standard player by providing them a discount ticket entrance to that format so that they can grab the interest of the few who are willing to make the leap and really jump into the Modern format.

This process has already been started with Modern Masters. Wizards just needed enough time for the set full of reprints to disseminate itself throughout the Magic community in order to drum up more interest in Modern. GP Richmond is a testament to this success story – one of the highest attended constructed events in recent memory, Modern is now on a lot of people’s radars and they are willing to play whatever deck they can get their hands on in order to participate. I know, I was there – plenty of people were playing B/W tokens decks and I even saw one win a GP Trial at the event. Even though it is a “dumb Tier 2 strategy”, many times new arrivals to a format can only afford to play these types of strategies. I know when I first started playing Legacy that the Mono-Red Burn was a very tempting option due to the low barrier to entry. Now that Wizards has solved the problem of the reserved list they can provide event decks for eternal formats, which isn’t something we’ve ever seen before. It is going to take some time for people to understand why Wizards made the choice they did with their first Modern event deck.

From a purely numbers standpoint, I’ve put the entire list including sideboard into the TCGPlayer cart optimizer and this is the approximate value of the deck according to that calcuation (see here for decklist):

Once we add the other parts of the package to the price

– Spindown Life Counter ~$3
– 80 Sleeves ~$6
– Deckbox ~3.50

All told it comes to about $150 of value. Let’s be honest though, the real value of all the pieces of the deck is going to come down once it is released due to an influx of copies entering the market. I’m betting that the actual value will be closer to $100 when everything is said and done.

The cards included might be disappointing for some, but I have a feeling that if Wizards put too many money cards in the deck it would just be sold at absurdly high prices by retailers in order for them to get the most value out of selling the event deck. Wizards didn’t want it to be expensive for Standard players to enter Modern which is why I feel that did not include many of the cards that I predicted they might in a previous article I had written. Honestly, if retailers creating a price barrier is the reason they didn’t include cards like Marsh Flats, Arid Mesa, Fetid Heath, and Auriok Champion in the deck I would wholeheartedly agree with keeping them out even though including them would have lowered their prices by a good margin.

Let’s Do Something About It

There are plenty of ways of improving the deck and not all of them are very costly. Outside of the mana base the rest of the deck can be upgraded rather easily. Just from a quick glance, I would make the following replacements based on this GP Trial Winning List if I were to buy this deck and take to my store’s Modern night.

Maindeck:
– 2 Soul Warden
– 2 Shrine of Loyal Legions
+ 2 Hero of Bladehold
+ 1 Inquisition of Kozilek
+ 1 Path to Exile
Sideboard:
– 2 Ghost Quarter
+ 2 Torpor Orb

Just making these simple replacements makes the deck a lot more consistent and will help your fight against Pod. The manabase may still need some work in order to accommodate the Hero’s but I think that if we’re playing four Spectral Procession main deck anyways it won’t matter in the majority of cases. It may not be the best deck in the room, but when you’re just starting out you need to utilize the tools that are at your disposal.

If you’re playing Standard, you may already have copies of Brimaz, King of Oreskos and Thoughtseize – these are also fine additions to the deck if you can make them fit. The GP Trial deck utilized two Brimaz rather than Tidehollow Scullers (which can be easily removed if your metagame has a lot of U/W/r players) and opted to play four copies of Thoughtseize and only one copy of Inquisition.

The core of the deck is present right out of the box which is good news for the novice Modern player. I’m sure others may argue with my logic but it won’t take much for a Modern beginner to take this deck and start rolling with it. Even if you were to pick up this event deck now, you could start budgeting for the rare lands and even wait for the inevitable reprint of the fetchlands to help supplement this deck. I think it is a good purchase if you’re in the market for a Modern deck because it also allows you get access to things for Commander like Sword of Feast and Famine and Elspeth, Knight-Errant.

I look forward to see what Wizards can do in the future with the Modern event deck products. Like the Commander products that are now yearly I hope that they will make these Modern event decks a yearly, or even biyearly, release in order to get new players that might only be acquainted with Standard interested in the Modern format. Releasing them on a regular basis will also help current Modern players start accumulating a collection so that they can keep building up their Modern card pool over time. I think having this event deck is healthy for the Modern format and for Magic as a whole and I would totally recommend that this deck should be purchased by the target audience for it – Modern rookies.

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Mishra’s Factory
$66.51 to $76.37 (14.8%)

Mishra’s Factory was the original “man” land. It allowed players to cast Wrath of God and then animate the Factory and attack with a creature in control decks.

It is still used in Legacy as a play set in Pox and Standstill decks.

These decks try to keep the board clear of creatures through heavy disrutpion and get there with lands that can attack.

They have also seen the occasional 3-1 in MODO Legacy dailies.

The rise in popularity of UWR Miracles also has people experimenting with Factories in Stoneblade builds.

I advocate trading into the hype while people are brewing. If you can turn a play set of these into some duel lands I would not look back.

9. Temple of Plenty
$6.00 to $6.91 (15.2%)

Scrylands are more powerful than originally assumed. We have seen pros running twelve scrylands to help smooth draws and fix mana for three color decks.

Temple of Plenty has seen full adoption in Selesnya and Junk builds in Standard.

I think that the scrylands are well positioned for rotation once the shocklands leave Standard.

I would trade for them with emphasis on this, Temple of Malady, Temple of Enlightenment and Temple of Silence.

8. Urza’s Tower
$2.46 to $2.84 (15.5%)

Modern season is quickly approaching.

Putting together the Urzatron is powerful in any format. It can be tough to recover from a turn three Karn Liberated or Wurmcoil Engine.

Different builds can throw out an early Batterskull or Sundering Titan which make it difficult if not impossible for aggressive decks to recover.

If you play the Urzatron in Gruul, Blue, Azorius or other combinations you need to have a play set of each of the three lands.

The biggest thing holding them back is their five printings including Chronicles and Fifth Edition where they were common.

It still think they are good solid holds. Anyone thinking of playing in the Modern format should at least pick up a play set of each to have to play with.

They are not powerful enough to ban and the biggest risk I could see would be further reprints.

7. Winds of Change
$1.86 to $2.15 (15.6%)

Nekusar, the Mindrazer decks continue to be popular and powerful. This is one of the most efficient ways to restock your hand and deal seven damage to each of your opponents.

There are still copies out there for less than a dollar. The spread on this card is less than a dime.

More Mind Seize decks will find their ways to retailers at the rate of two boxes per shipment.

That means more ninety-eight card commander decks than need tuning after True-Name Nemesis and Baleful Strix are sold.

These are still surprisingly easy to trade for and with such a low margin a pretty safe bet.

6. Necropotence (From the Vault: Exiled)
$14.97 to $17.97 (20.0%)

Necropotence is one the most powerful card engines every devised.

It is also one of the most iconic cards Wizards has ever printed.

This is the only foil copy available for Vintage or Cube players.

A lot of people are going to be playing with it in Vintage Masters online.

The beta shows the lowest price of $13 and the highest buylist of $10.

This shows a great deal of confidence in the growth of this card.

This is a great long term hold.

5. Apocalypse
$2.44 to $3.09 (26.6%)

This card is a rare from Tempest. That means there are not many out there. It is also on the reserved list so there will never be any more.

This card has a negative spread. You can buy it from one retailer and sell it to another at a profit.

This is as good a recommendation as I can possibly give.

Grab these any time you see them. They have probably been rotting in trade binders for years.

4. Tendo Ice Bridge
$3.59 to $4.58 (27.6%)

The power and flexibility of this land are considerable when you can reuse the counter using bouncelands and Amulet of Vigor. They are used as three of in that deck.

I have seen this card listed for $5 in a few places and some sites still have them for less than $3.

The beta on this card is only $0.42. That makes this a safe and smart target.

I would actively trade for these. The deck has already caused significant increases in the prices of Azusa, Lost but Seeking and Primeval Titan.

3. Urza’s Miter
$4.87 to $6.45 (32.4%)

This is all smoke.

I don’t think anyone is actually buying this card at this price.

I looked at ebay sales records and it looks like everyone is buying theirs for around $3. The highest buylist I see is $2.51 but most vendors are offering about a dollar less than that.

That tells me that there is not a lot of confidence in the price of this card.

It is an Antiquities rare on the reserved list but it really does not belong in any deck. It is a collector’s item but that does not explain the recent surge in interest it has seen.

Am I missing something here? Does anyone know what started this?

I honestly feel you could buy any early rare on the reserved list and it would be at least as valuable to you as this card.

For about the same amount you can get a Mana Matrix or Planar Gate.

Both of those are about as rare and have awesome applications in Commander or Cube.

2. Nether Shadow
$2.00 to $2.97 (48.5%)

Legacy Manaless Dredge is picking up in popularity and it shows.

Nether Shadow can safely be dredged away and will be back to fight, block or be sacrificed to Dread Return to reanimate Balustrade Spy or Golgari Grave-Troll.

The deck is a popular budget option for a format known for costing thousands of dollars to play competitively.

This deck can be put together for a little more than a preordered booster box of Conspiracy.

There are still a lot of budget cards in the deck that have room to grow.

Chancellor of the Annex is cheap and can keep opponents from landing a turn one Deathrite Shaman to attack your graveyard.

Flayer of the Hatebound is also a bulk card and adds a unique effect which can close games out of nowhere.

I expect the pieces of this deck to continue to grow as interest in Legacy grows.

1. Breathstealer’s Crypt
$1.21 to $2.00 (65.3%)

Here is a spec that I like!

Breathstealer’s Crypt is a rare from Visions. It is on the reserve list.

It gives you information. Everyone will know what everyone is drawing. It costs life or cards.

It is obvious what is going on with this card – it is the latest Nekusar target.

You make your opponents draw cards and drain their life anyway. You can deprive them of precious creatures and finish them off.

What is left for the Nekusar deck?

Kederekt Parasite, Otherworld Atlas and Reforge the Soul are all still bulk.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Boros Reckoner
$8.75 to $7.79 (-11.0%)

Pro Tour Journey into Nyx was not kind to the Minotaur Wizard.

The event came and went and not a single copy was found in the Top 8.

Even Monowhite Aggro and Boros Burn decks do not necessarily run him anymore.

The time to trade these away was a few months ago. Their only use was Standard and it has seen its day.

I would move them as quickly as possible because once rotation hits they will be bulk.

I would try to get scylands or even shocklands for them if you could.

4. Shatterstorm
$19.10 to $16.90 (-11.5%)

Shatterstorm is a powerful answer to Affinity decks in Modern and Legacy.

Unfortunately the popularity of these decks have waned as people have adjusted their sideboards.

This is part of the danger of investing in sideboard cards.

If they do too well then the threat is neutralized and demand sags.

This leaves and opening for the threat to return and for interest to rise again.

I would trade these away as it is on its way down. It jumped from $5 to $20 over the course of a few weeks. It has been trending down again.

Try to pick them up again once they drop below $10.

3. The Mimeoplasm (Commander’s Arsenal)
$13.75 to $12.00 (-12.7%)

We recently saw a burst in demand for Commanders. Every enemy wedge Commander that was under $10 was snatched up and an increase in price drove this card from $ $6 to $15 over night.

The frenzy is dying down and prices are settling.

The price has come down but it is stabilizing.

If you want a fun commander I would hold onto these. I expect the price the price to slowly start climbing from here. It just will not be at the rabid pace we have seen.

2. Shivan Reef
$7.99 to $6.88 (-13.9%)

Storm has been testing well in Modern. Shivan Reef helps fix mana and does not come into play tapped.

It has been steadily growing over the past few weeks. I would look at this as a speed bump.

Modern season is rapidly approaching. This could be a good opportunity to grab three or four if you are looking at playing UR Storm.

1. Oubliette
$9.35 to $7.21 (-22.9%)

Did you trade yours away yet? Everyone else is doing so.

It is an interesting card but not so powerful that I see a strong reason for the price.

If you want to exile a creature in black we now have Silence the Believers and Gild. I think this will just continue to decrease in value.