The Watchtower 8/27/18 for ProTraders – Plan Your Specs

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin


Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.


If Grand Prix Prague accomplished anything, it was letting us all know that Modern is still a vibrant format ripe for disruption. Hardened Scales Affinity did well last weekend, and it secured another top 8 in Prague, which is roughly the amount of success you need before the deck is worth considering beyond a statistical aberration. I can’t promise you that it will gain mainstream traction, but it’s cool to consider at least.

UW Control was all over the top 32 slots, with Jace and Teferi teaming up in something I imagine DeviantArt will reimagine as a hunky buddy cop duo. While they couldn’t crack the final tables, 8 of the 9th to 32nd place decks were some form of the UW control deck featuring the pair. Control decks by their very nature need to shift and evolve to meet the threats of the weekend, though there’s typically a core of cards that gives the deck its power. Jace and Teferi may be that core, and this may be the vehicle which delivers unto Modern the JtMS deck it’s been waiting for.

Jace, the Mind Sculptor (Masters 25 Foil)

Price Today: $140
Possible Price: $200

As I mentioned in the intro, UW control had a big weekend. At the helm of every instance of the deck was Jace and Teferi. The pair were what enabled pilots to gain a stranglehold on the game and lock opponents out of coming back. Jace has been dancing in and out of Modern since he was unbanned, and this may be the deck that cements him as a pillar.

Worldwake foils have been infinity dollars since forever, and the Masters 25 and Eternal Masters printings didn’t change that. EMA hit the scene at around $300, and after dropping off towards $140, jumped hard ahead of M25 (lol) and has settled right around $200. M25 copies, meanwhile, started just over $160 and have dropped as low as $140 in some places. This means that today, right now, there’s about a $50 price difference between the M25 foils and the EMA foils. Can you think of any reason why the M25 copies are less desirable than the EMA oens? Because I can’t.

The elephant in the room on this is the FTV: Twenty copies at $75. The thing is, we can pretty much put that to bed now. Those copies are awful. They warp easier, look bad, aren’t as cool, whatever. Take your pick as to why they aren’t good. Those will sit closer in price to non-foils, while pack foils (from any set) will sit well higher.

Regardless of what happens in Modern, we should see this gap close, likely upwards. Additionally, I’d expect the foil prices in general on EMA and M25 copies to float north of $200, especially if we see UW control continue to perform well on the GP circuit.

Imprisoned in the Moon

Price Today: $2
Possible Price: $8

No, this isn’t a Modern UW Control pick. If you take a look at the most popular EDH commanders this week, you’ll see both Estrid and Tuvix. Sorry, Tuvasa. (Estrid and Tuvasa together were 91 deck lists this week, one behind Aminatou and Yuriko.) Bant Enchantments was apparently a market that needed another serving, given how popular these two have been. This popularity is in spite of those two, since as commanders, they’re just completely flat and unexciting. Like, seriously. Tuvasa is just an absolute snoozefest.

Imprison in the Moon has been relatively popular in EDH since it was released in Eldritch Moon, with nearly 7,000 decks packing a copy. That’s strong adoption for a relatively new card. It’s going to keep increasing too, as it seems that there will be a surge in enchantment players over the next two to four months with more casual players taking their time to pick up the deck.

What I specifically like in Imprison the Moon that’s different from any other random enchantment card is that it’s blue. Many of the enchantment-matters commanders have been Selesnya or otherwise not-blue. Adding two Bant commanders that care about enchantments, and are good at caring about enchantments (albeit boring) means that enchantments going to be cemented in EDH as a more than just GWx. Anyone that was playing a GWx enchantment deck may find themselves migrating to Bant.

NM English copies are about $2 to $2.50 right now, with enough supply for a few months, but probably not much longer. Depending on how strong demand remains between now and January, I suspect we’ll see non-foi copies at somewhere between $5 and $8 by the spring. Foils are solid too, where you can find them at $5 to $7, but that well is much more shallow.


Oath of Teferi (Foil)

Price Today: $3
Possible Price: $15

It’s not enough that Teferi has to take over Standard and begin positioning himself as a pillar of control in Modern, he’s got to find a way into EDH as well. His planeswalker card may not be positioned to manage that, but his Oath certainly looks like it will.

There are a few things EDH players love doing, and blinking permanents is one of them. Many of the best cards in the format are such because of their absurd ETB triggers, and blinking them lets you relive that excitement time and time again. Enter (heh) Oath of Teferi, which blinks one of your permanents on its way in. It’s a delayed blink too, which lets you blink, for instance, your Sun Titan, cast a wrath, then have the Sun Titan return at the end of turn. (Which then returns something you destroyed in the wrath, which then returns…)

That’s only half of it of course, with the rest of the text letting you go wild with planeswalker activations. Most planeswalkers are a touch underpowered in EDH, but when you start triggering them twice a turn, they make up for that quick. Add in additional support, like Hardened Scales, and you can find yourself putting four to six loyalty counters on a Planeswalker in one turn. It’s a build-your-own Doubling Season!

A reader brought it to my attention that Hardened Scales doesn’t work with planeswalkers. First of all, a reminder that it’s illegal to correct my article. Second, even if Hardened Scales doesn’t work in this way, there’s other effects that certainly do, and they will also compound with multiple activations each turn.

Oath is very new, so supply is still fairly deep, and EDHREC doesn’t yet reflect what I suspect is the true popularity. Give it a few months, and as players are slotting them into their Estrid, or Tuvasa, or Aminatou, or Brago, or whatever decks, you’ll see fewer and fewer at $3.


Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.



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Brainstorm Brewery #301 Chipgate

 

Corbin (@Chosler88), Jason (@jasonEalt) and DJ (@Rose0fThorns) have recovered from the one chip challenge (except the milkman never really suffered #Chipgate) and are here to cover all the MtG drama from the week.

Make sure to check us out on Youtube for hidden easter eggs and facial reactions  https://www.youtube.com/user/BrainstormBrewery

TeeSpring to get merch https://tspr.ng/c/BrainstormBreweryLS

Leaving Kaladesh

Hello everyone! We are likely two weeks away from previews for Guilds of Ravnica, and while I enjoy the experience of ‘will they really do a Ravnica sans shocklands?’ threads, that’s not the main thing on my mind.

Today, I’m thinking about the things that are about to rotate out of Standard, and I’m looking for the cards which have appeal in Modern, Legacy, Commander or Cube.

There’s no shortage of these cards, and that bodes quite well for opportunities. Some cards are already pretty high, due to extensive use (Fatal Push, for example) and while there might be some money made there it’ll either be too slow or too small.

Let’s talk about some cards!

Kaladesh

Spirebluff Canal ($7 regular/$15 foil)

Trending down, until it’ll begin trending up again!

The enemy fastlands are a terrific investment, but I’m only going to mention the top two. Spirebluff is the #33 most played land in Modern, appearing in about 8% of decks. It’s popular in explosive decks who need two colors right away, like Storm, and this price is low for both versions. I can easily see this being $10/$30, or even higher depending. I hope the price drops down a little, as people liquidate their current Standard decks, but this one and Blooming Marsh (#41 on that list, in roughly 5% of decks) are the ones I really want to stock up on. I prefer foils too, but given how common this can be, nonfoils appeal too. I find it unlikely we will get this in a booster pack again for a while–we haven’t gotten a reprint of the allied fastlands, and that was in late 2010!

Metallurgic Summonings ($1.30/$4)

Ponder with a 1/1 attached is just absurd right?

This seems woefully underpriced for a mythic, but it’s seen so little play. Considering how common ‘no creature’ decks are in Commander, this card is ridiculous. One of my other favorite interactions is that this plays extremely well with the new Brudiclad, Telchor Engineer, making artifact tokens that can be copied into other things, or be the source for other token copies. It’s in 5000 decks on EDHREC, so it’s not like this card is a secret. It’s going to be super solid for growth going forward.

Ceremonious Rejection (50¢/$5)

This is currently one of the most popular sideboard cards in Modern, given the utility against Tron, Affinity, KCI, and Eldrazi. If you play Modern, get your playset now of nonfoils, and feel free to get some foils when you can. There’s only about 100 on TCG right now, and given the large number of decks that are playing this as at least a two-of, I won’t be shocked when they jump to at least $15, uncommon or not.

Paradoxical Outcome (50¢/$6!)

It’s been a while since I saw a foil multiplier at 12, and this is due to the popularity of this card in Vintage. As you can imagine, this card plus a Mox or two, perhaps a Grim Monolith, means you draw a lot of cards very very fast. I was surprised to find that the foils are this cheap, considering that this deck has quickly become one of the most commonly played decks in that format.

I’ll give you that Vintage isn’t a big scene in paper, at least as compared to online, but when there’s only 32 copies on TCG and a handful on other big sites, it feels like a solid choice for a future buyout.

Dubious Challenge (bulk/$1)

The last card I’m targeting from Kaladesh is this crappy, terrible, no-good card. You don’t have to tell me that it’s not great. It’s actively bad, but there’s a deck waiting to break out. We already have Flickerwisp and Glimmerpoint Stag to flicker the Griselbrand or Emrakul, so there’s a base. One more flickering creature might put this over the top, though it’s a four-mana sorcery that is easily countered. The price for getting in is so low, though, that I don’t mind picking up a few foils and just being patient. I don’t know when it’ll blow up, but it’s unique and has great potential.

Aether Revolt

Paradox Engine ($17/$34/$120 for the Masterpiece Invention)

This card of a thousand combos is the perfect mythic, in that you don’t ever want to open it in Limited events. It’s a super-popular card in Commander: in print for about 20 months, already listed in more than 11,000 decks. That’s a lot of combos and shenanigans, and it’s why the Invention is so pricey.

Oh it stings, I knew better, why didn’t I buy any?

I can’t advocate picking up these Inventions as a value investment. They’re going to go up, but they’ve already spiked pretty hard and any further growth is going to be quite slow. Pack foils are a super-tasty target, as they ought to be about $45, considering the usual foil multiplier. The Invention presents a price ceiling, but know that the pack foil is below where it’s expected to be, and that means it’ll correct itself by $15-$20 before too long.

Mechanized Production ($3/$6)

Alternate win conditions are already something I pay attention to, but the assortment of cards that can make this amazing really put this over the top. Yes, it’s another awesome Brudiclad card, but it’s also great with other artifacts you’d be playing anyway. Churn out some mana rocks, or if you really want to get wild, Coveted Jewel. This is a small-set mythic that is niche so far but it’s got great potential to blow up in the right setting.

Planar Bridge ($3/$6/$60)

That’s not a typo. The Invention version is 20x the regular, and 10x the pack foil price. I love inventions, I do, but this is out of alignment. There’s 4500 people who’ve already put this into decks online, and the best thing about seeing this card on the other side of the table in a Commander game is the sure and certain knowledge that my suffering won’t last long. Hopefully.

Foil Scrap Trawler ($2-$4)

First of all, this was the Buy-a-Box card for Aether Revolt. There’s a lot of extra foils out there, so be aware that this might not hit the heights you’re hoping for.

That being said, this card enables all sorts of silly and grindy and annoying decks. It’s a staple of the Krark-Clan Ironworks deck, and there’s also an incredible Grinding Station deck (found here if you want) that abuses the interactions in order to win with Sword/Thopter, because dumping cards into the yard in such a deck is basically drawing them.

Cliff has been writing for MTGPrice for five years now, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Unlocked Pro Trader: Windgrace, Lord of…. Look, Here’s Some Specs, OK?

Readers,

You want specs, right? That’s why you read this column. So why don’t I just trust you understand that I understand my methods by now and just give you what you want? Specs.

If you’re a new reader, welcome. I’ve been writing this column for like 5 years and it’s a work in progress. Every once in a while I’ll tweak my methodology but for the most part, I’m going to use EDHREC data to see what people are playing and then I’m going to use my expertise in both MTG Finance and EDH to determine if anything used a lot will be worth more money later by virtue of that playability. That’s it. I don’t know what I try to make it sound more complicated than it is. It’s not like I’m afraid of one of you taking my job and if someone told me “I don’t need you anymore because I learned all I can from you and now I’m going to be the best EDH Finance writer ever!” good, but also I don’t believe you. If you really want to write an EDH finance column I’ll hire you to do it on EDHREC. I mean, maybe.

Anyway, I said no preamble and there I go writing a whole paragraph of it. That was your fault. What happens next? That’s all me, baby.

SPECS!

Lord Windgrace, maybe not to anyone’s shock, is the second-most popular deck on EDHREC out of all of the new commanders. Aminatou to no one’s surprise is number one, possibly Yuriko at #3 is a surprise, maybe not. But as much as Lord Windgrace’s “Lands matter” deck with barely any cards that care about lands was maligned by people during prerelease season, this isn’t prerelease season, this is “I bought the deck, now what?” season and I think “now what” for quite a few people is “Take Lord Windgrace, Windgrace’s Judgment, Turntimber Sower and Nesting Dragon out of a box and throw the rest of the junk away” and that’s fine. The thing is, the deck you can build with Lord Windgrace’s precon minus all of the cards in Lord Windgrace’s precon that aren’t Lord Windgrace is a pretty good one. Lands matter, and people have been waiting for a commander that recognizes that for quite a while. Now they have it and first off, they spiked two cards that really should have been in the precon.

The Gitrog Monster flirting with $9 on Card Kingdom makes people think they have found the next The Gitrog Monster.

It’s possible. There is a lot of Dominaria out there and this will take a while to quadruple but it doesn’t hurt to stock up on these IF you think this could go up. I’m not 100% convinced, but I think if you can get these under $2, maybe on TCG Player or by trading for them, you could sock enough of these away to make some scratch on a double up in 2 years.

Back to Windgrace!

Sorry. Anyway, lands have mattered for a while and with Thrasios and Tatyova making lands matter cards in green matter for a while, we’re looking at stuff that was teetering on the brink of going up getting another push but we’re mostly looking at chasing stuff we should have bought when it was cheaper. I don’t hate Splendid Reclamation around $2 currently, but I liked it a lot more when it was much cheaper a long time ago .

It’s already quadrupled, so getting in late obviously feels bad. However, it’s not done going up, mostly likely, due to every deck that comes out seeming to want to dump stuff in the yard and how many times I have killed someone with this card with Avenger of Zendikar in play.  Amulet of Vigor is pretty good, too.

I still think there is meat on the bone here and I think there will be more “lands matter” cards to come later. I might get out of mine in a year, though, before the next Commander decks come out, but then again, what are the odds they make another deck where lands matter so soon?

Here’s a little snakeyboi that I think, unlike most snakes, has legs. As a spec. Like, the spec has legs which is incongruous since it’s a snake and that’s funny. Look, I don’t have to impress you. I do have to convince you that Iconic Masters stuff is still nearish its floor and with a Lands Matter deck being super popular, why not play the snake? It’s in half of the 133 decks on EDHREC this week and that’s a good indication that people are aware of it, the Iconic Masters printing has enfranchised some people and we’re going to sell a ton of these at like $13 in a year or two. It has Lotus in the name – this seems like a winner to me.

Speaking of cards from Iconic Masters that were originally in Zendikar as mythics and are in a lot of Lord Windgrace decks and will likely go up in price because they were going to anyway but the new demand from a popular archetype doesn’t hurt, I present this. Ob Nixilis basically follows what Cobra does since the cards are very similar in a lot of respects. Total demand for Ob is less, and it’s less likely to break in Modern and therefore it has less upside potential but if nothing explosive happens with Cobra, this is as safe a bet. I like Cobra better, though, because of Modern and how playable it is there.

 

If you look at the robust recovery of Exploration, Burgeoning seems like a great buy. Conspiracy packs are radioactive and supply is peaked so with demand growing every time they print another Thrasios, Muldrotha, Tatyova or Lord Windgrace, even people who bought Burgeoning already will need to buy it again. This is a $15 card, it just doesn’t know it yet.

Crucible’s price is pretty established at this point. It’s in a set that doesn’t have very many great cards and we’re getting close to starting to spoil cards from Guilds of Ravnica so at this point, we’re basically at peak supply of M19. A lot of people aren’t as bullish on Crucible but I think at $20, it has some discovered demand. A lot of people cited low EDH inclusion numbers as a reason for being hesitant to take a look at this card, but at $20, it’s much more affordable and it’s pricing itself into decks. It’s also in more EDH decks than Coat of Arms, Illusionists’ Bracers, Paradox Engine and Aetherflux Reservoir and a lot of those decks were registered before Crucible was affordable.

An artifact in 12,000 decks is nothing to sneeze at. If it doesn’t go below $20, it will likely start climbing north of $30 if it isn’t reprinted again. I realize that’s not the sexy “$0.50 into $5” like we saw with Realms Uncharted when The Gitrog Monster was spoiled (or $0.50 into $22 like with Squandered Resources, a Reserved List card that was allowed to be $0.50 because it was 2016) but it’s still a pretty solid card with growth potential and they’re in trade binders right now, more importantly.

Remember, this card has 3 foils versions (Set, prerelease and game day) and one regular version and they’re all about the same price. I would go for set foil since that’s likely to diverge the most from the non-foil, but it’s hard to go wrong with any version of this. It’s a Crucible, but it’s also a Crucible that can go in a deck that already has Crucible AND you can Green Sun’s Zenith or Wordly Tutor for it. Sounds like a winner to me.

That’s all the news that’s fit to print about our Lord Windy, here. A lot of this stuff went up already by virtue of decks like Tatyova, Muldrotha and Thrasios but there is still money to be made and some of these cards have a lot of potential. Ulvenwald Hydra, Bobo Enraged, Ghost Town, Dust Bowl and a ton of other cards are getting twice the play they were a year ago, so make sure you check prices on stuff you speculated on already.

Thanks for reading, readers. I’ll be back next week, likely to talk about why Brudiclad is so much more fun than Saheeli. Until next time!

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY