PROTRADER: The Avalanches One Popular Track

September 28, 2016 Travis Allen 5 Comments

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy.

Apparently I should complain about my lack of article titles every Monday morning around 10am, because each time I do, I get something exciting to talk about. A few weeks ago Rosewater posted the article about the Masterpiece Series seemingly in response, and this week, news of Hareruya’s Frontier tournament began making the rounds almost on cue.

What’s Frontier? Great question. Here’s the announcement:

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Jason Alt

Luxury Yachting

September 27, 2016 Jason Alt 6 Comments

I couldn’t think of what to write about this week. When I’m not doing the set review stuff, I tend to try and pick a new commander that could force other prices up, because that takes weeks, it’s obvious when it’s going to happen, and I’m not the kind of writer that can write about card prices after they go up and have people praise me for it.

I couldn’t think of a commander to write about this week and it was bumming me out. Depala? Yeah, no thanks. As much fun as building around a dwarf beeping around in a bunch of cars can be if you’re playing against opponents who just opened up a commander precon, it’s probably not very competitive. I’m really gunshy after I gave casuals a little too much credit, predicting an increase in the sale of a lot of clerics when Ayli was spoiled. I was half right – Ayli became one of the most popular commanders in the last 6 months and she spiked a lot of prices. The half I was wrong about was which cards – clerics are largely unchanged while lifegain cards that were already being propped up by Oloro and later, Karlov, saw a bump. Nailing which commander is going to spike cards isn’t helpful if you don’t correctly predict which cards. I’m not going to tell you to buy a bunch of dwarf tribal stuff only to have Depala come along and make a bunch of artifact creature stuff and equipment spike and you’re holding a bunch of useless dwarf cards like a straight buster because you assumed I knew more about EDH than you do (I mean, I do, but I don’t know more than every EDH player combined and that’s whose behavior I try to predict, usually successfully).

If I didn’t think the Ayli whiff was a fluke, I’d quit writing this stupid column and talk about something else. I’m not the kind of writer who gets to write about something he knows nothing about and have people praise me for it. I’ve spent years studying EDH finance so you don’t have to which I imagine is great for those of you who don’t want to. So, no, I do think the Ayli thing was a fluke – I correctly predicted her power level and overestimated the casual community’s affinity for building a tribal deck they’ve been clamoring for. Everyone was upset when we didn’t get a good GR werewolf but when we did get a bad one, some of the prices of werewolf cards went up because of people who don’t understand how this works buying speculatively and they’re back down already. If one of the 10 most popular EDH generals from the last year can’t spike foil Starlit Sanctum, you making money from foil Moonmist on the back of Ulrich of the Krellenhorde is a pipe dream.

That’s a long way to go to tell you I didn’t want to write about Depala this week. Meanwhile the rest of the list wasn’t too exciting, either. Oviya looks like a good inclusion in the 99 of an existing deck, but there’s literally no reason to play her over Rhys which gives you Cathar’s Crusade and all but one anthem effect. Pia Nalaar is good in maybe a Grenzo deck but I don’t want her at the helm of mono-red even a little bit. Padeem looks like an OK inclusion in a different deck and I’m sure a non-zero number of people will build with him/her at the helm but, again, not going to compel anyone to build the deck enough times that the price of anything goes up. Same with Kambal – there’s no reason not to play Karlov or Ayli and just jam him in there. I was getting frustrated. Then I realized the card I wanted to write about had been staring me in the face all along.

Of course! Panharmonicon is this set’s Doubling Season! This card is going to change the way EDH is played! How many cards will this card alone spike? I fired up EDHREC and moseyed over to Panharmonicon’s page and got ready to write an article about how Panharmonicon is the best general in the set.

What I’m Actually Going to Write About

Oh yeah. I missed one.

Oh yeah. This ~~guy~~ ~~dude~~ ~~thing~~ genderless creature. Gonti, Lord of Luxury is one of the aetherborn and it’s going to be very popular in EDH. Want to know how absurd it is that I neglected Gonti when I was going over the list of potential commanders in this set to write about? I wrote about Gonti on Gathering Magic two weeks ago. The card is very good and it’s already one of the most-searched creatures from the set on EDHREC and it’s got the highest affinity percentage with Panharmonicon. This goes hand in hand with what I consider the best EDH card of the set. It does something pretty new for a commander, also – while a lot of the legendary creatures are bad versions of better creatures that already exist, this does something relatively new and pretty potent. I have a lot of thoughts on this and they are informed by having already drafted a deck based on this card that people seemed to like. Let’s get a stew going.

Bye These Crads

When I first read Gonti, I was interested in ways to rebuy it and get the trigger over and over. The deck is going to be mana-hungry but a lot of EDH decks are and I figured that would take care of itself, especially in mono-black. I wanted to make sure the effect was repeatable so we could really get an advantage and one of the ways I thought about doing this was sacrificing Gonti for mana and using Deathmantle to get multiple triggers. This is already going up, it’s already played in other decks, it’s already a part of several infinite mana combos (composite golem ftw) that have even been touted by (terrible, just the worst) modern players. Plus this was a Jason Alt Pick of the Week on Brainstorm Brewery which gives it a lot of upside those other factors don’t. This won’t go up just because of Gonti but Gonti will help, something this card didn’t need. Buy these, watch the foils and be glad you got in when they were cheap, then hold them too long and get smashed by a Commander deck reprinting. If these aren’t reprinted this fall, though, it will be at least a year and a lot will happen to this price in a year. If you didn’t buy in at the floor, there is still time to make money. Oh, and this is good with Panharmonicon, the card I’m pretending is the general of this deck.

This is the card I’m most excited about, so I think with it out of the way, we can talk about mana before we move on.

Did you notice this creeping up to its pre-reprint levels? These at $1 was absurd and didn’t last long and that Commander reprinting gave us an opportunity to get a lot of these for cheap. I think this won’t stop at its current level, despite the reprint. This is very, very good in black decks and if Nirkana Revenant is any indication, the ceiling on this is very high despite the gigantic difference in the relative scarcity of the two cards. The effect is in-demand enough that there is upside to Ghast if you buy in around $2 because it will be $5 soon and could go even higher. Another reprinting won’t sink it forever, so if it hits $1 again, buy even harder because it has shown it can recover. This solves your mana problem in the deck, is cheaper than Nirkana Revenant and is everywhere. I like this card a lot.

This is a “watch” not a “buy” but it’s worth mentioning. If this gets any cheaper, it will be attractive for two reasons. The first is that the lower it gets, the less impetus there is for a reprinting and the more likely something like Cabal Coffers gets printed instead. This has 3 printings and that has taken a toll on the upside – this is unlikely to see $40 again. The second reason this will be attractive as it goes lower is that some deck in Modern will want this again and you will have copies ready to sell. People keep cards for Modern but almost everyone has a deck and a little build stock – a lot of Modern stuff is sold off when it falls out of fashion only to pop off again later. This is a card that will be more than it is now, so if you can buy it when it’s less than it is now, you’re sure to make money.

Were you frustrated seeing how expensive Crypt Ghast got while you weren’t paying attention and did you find yourself wishing you could know when a card was at its floor and was bound to go back up so you could buy at that point rather than after it was too late? This card is Crypt Ghast when Crypt Ghast hit $1 after its reprinting. You want a card that’s going to be $10 again and is $4 now? This is so obvious that pointing it out feels like cheating.

The rest of the ways to make mana in this deck are expensive and I don’t see much upside.

We do have some other ways to rebuy Gonti’s effects, though.

Someone tried telling me that the first spike wasn’t the result of Star City buying every copy of this card when Beck//Call was spoiled. It’s probably a co-incidence that the price was $3 on April 9th and $12 on April 12th, right? Hey, when did Dragon’s Maze come out? Was it April 2013? This is all probably EDH demand that did that.

Speaking of EDH demand, it exists. That said, it probably can’t sustain the current price and it appears to be tailing off. I think you watch this because if the only reprint this will get is a Masterpiece I think this has upside from wherever it bottoms out. You can probably make money buying now, but you can probably make more buying later and I prefer more money to less money. This is great with Gonti, among other decks, and cross-format applications only give you more chances to make money. EDH staples can maintain their prices well making them safe investments and other formats can give you a big boost making cross-format cards perfect buys. I like Curio, but I’ll like it more later.

Second spikes are a thing and this has demonstrated it can be $3 and that means increased demand could push it toward those levels again. This could get lower but it’s likely that it goes up, especially with more attention from players wanting to rebuy ETB effects. If you’re in a color where you can Deadeye Navigator or Eldrazi Displacer at will, you’re not liable to be hyped about this, but if you have no choice, you might want to give this a try. Gonti plus Panharmonicon make me want to ABC.

This returns stuff. This is just the kind of card that is going to be worth money long-term based on EDH demand. This is also way less reprintable than a lot of cards. This isn’t exactly a Phyrexian Arena but sometimes it’s better. If you’re letting stuff die or putting your general in your yard so you can cast him later, this is a card you trifle with. So trifle with it and 100 copies of it and you’ll be glad you parked the cost of a dinner at TGI Friday’s in an appreciating asset rather than in giving you and a date diarrhea.

That’s all I got. I mean, there are more cards that have less upside and fit the theme of the deck less, but we don’t need to concern ourselves with those cards this week. What we do need to do is eventually bring this week’s article to a close. Thanks for sticking with me and reading my silly column every week. Share this on twitter and facebook and let’s all make some money on cards that are going to go up anyway. A store can sit on these for a year or you can buy them and sit on them for a year then sell them back to the store. Until next week!

James Chillcott, MTG Fast Finance, Travis Allen

MTG Fast Finance Podcast: Episode 34

September 27, 2016 James Chillcott 1 Comment

MTG Fast Finance is our weekly podcast covering the flurry of weekly financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering. MFF provides a fast, fun and useful sixty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: Sep 23rd, 2016

Segment 1: Top Movers of the Week

Note: Price movements reflect posted NM prices, and may not represent prices players have paid.

Seeds of Innocence (Mirage)
Start: $0.55
Finish: $2.50
Gain: +$1.95 (+355%)

Fleetwheel Cruiser (Kaladesh)
Start: $0.75
Finish: $2.00
Gain: +$1.25 (+167%)

Smuggler’s Copter (Kaladesh)
Start: $3.00
Finish: $7.00
Gain: +$4.00 (+133%)

Grafdiffer’s Cage (DKA, Foil)
Start: $35.00
Finish: $65.00
Gain: +$30.00 (+85%)

Platinum Emperion (SOM)
Start: $8.00
Finish: $14.00
Gain: +$6.00 (+75%)

Panharmonicon (Kaladesh, Foil)
Start: $11.00
Finish: $19.00
Gain: +$8.00 (+72%)

Obstinate Baloth (M11, Foil)
Start: $25.00
Finish: $40.00
Gain: +$15.00 (+60%)

Brushland (Fifth Edition)
Start: $13.00
Finish: $21.00
Gain: +$8.00 (+62%)

Segment 2: Cards to Watch

James Picks:

Nahiri’s Wrath (Eldritch Moon) Confidence Level 6: $2 to $6 (+200%, 0-12+ months) Outside chance that this is the red sweeper folks will need this fall. Potential for high damage output and ability to handle PWs, but weak against vehicles so meta shake out will dictate success here.
Retreat to Corelhelm (BFZ, Foil) Confidence Level 8: $2 to $8 (+300%, 6-12+ months) Knight/Corelhelm deck continues to put up Top 8s, and this foil uncommon will end up underpriced vs. future demand. Open ended synergy with future combos helps here.
Selfless Spirit (Foil, Eldritch Moon) Confidence Level 7: $8 to $15 (+88%, 6-12+ months) Spirit decks in Modern are a possibility, but this card is useful in aggressive and tempo decks across Modern with or without it’s tribal compatriots.
Dubious Challenge (Kaladesh) Confidence Level 5: $.25 to $5 (+1900%, 24+ months) This card has the potential to be broken one day. Emrakul + Flickerwisp is a starting point, and I see this turning into a janky deck one day down the road. Low risk here, with high upside in 3-5 years. Will be buying 200 copies or so.

Travis Picks:

Eldritch Evolution, (Eldritch Moon), Confidence Level 6: $4 to $8 (+100%, 0-12+ months) Card has potential in the new Standard and a future home in Modern. Not much more of this set going to be opened due to Conspiracy 2 and Kaladesh following so close on it’s heels.
Mind’s Dilation, (Eldritch Moon), Confidence Level 8: $1 to $5 (+400%, 12+ months) Great long term mythic hold for EDH.

Sell Watch:

Might of Old Krosa, (Time Spiral), Confidence Level 7: $9 to $2 (-80%%, 12+ months) If Infect ever goes off the radar or gets hampered by bannings, this card goes to bulk almost instantly. A $10 uncommon that can be reprinted easily isn’t something you want to be holding onto.
Noble Hierarch, (MM15), Confidence Level 9: $65 to $30 (+400%, 12+ months) Recently reprinted and still climbing, this card is needed by multiple modern decks as a 4-of, but it could easily be reprinted again in MM17 next summer. Trading out in the $65-$80 range is unlikely to be a bad move regardless as the card has to be near it’s likely peak.

Disclosure: Travis and James may own speculative copies of the above cards.

Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review

This week Travis and James went over SCG Orlando, a 600+ person Modern tournament.

The Top 8 included a Reanimator deck using 2x Collective Brutality, a 5th place Knight/Corelhelm deck, 6th place Eldrazi Aggro and a Valakut deck with three copies of Anger of the Gods between the main and the board.

Segment 4: Topic of the Week

The guys talked over the likely changes to the B&R list, placing the odds of no changes at 50/50. Indeed, there were no changes, so moving on.

Danny Brown

Cube Watch: Kaladesh Edition

September 24, 2016 Danny Brown 6 Comments

Kaladesh is fully spoiled, and that means it’s time for another Cube Watch. As always, the approach I take here is:

I’m looking to expand my cube for the lowest price possible while still getting all the great cards I want. This means I’m not looking at foils, or in this set, masterpieces. If you’re in to pimping your cube, this stuff may be of interest to you, but it’s not the focus today.
I’m aiming to pick up cards at close to their lowest price. New cards are usually overpriced due to lack of supply and increased hype, but they almost always go down. As such, I’ll be naming a rough price target—or indicating my willingness to pick up a card at its preorder price (though this is rare).
I’ll mention commons and uncommons where applicable, but we’re not too worried about prices here: we’re talking a maximum difference between high and low of a few dollars, and usually only a few cents.

Enough intro; let’s look at the cards.

White

Lots of white cards of interest here, but very few slam-dunks.

It’s like Vampire Nighthawk but not. I don’t think this is really going to get a slot alongside identically costed cards like Brimaz, King of Oreskos, but it will probably be plenty good enough for C/Ubes.

I’m not especially driven to put cards that use energy into my cube, although a few appear to be good standalone cards. This one is on the borderline of this status, but I don’t feel comfortable fully writing it off until playing with it. At bulk pricing already, if you’re interested, there’s no reason to not pull the trigger now, just in case this actually sees Standard play.

This card isn’t bad at all, but can it replace Baneslayer Angel or Cloudgoat Ranger? What about Wingmate Roc, Revillark, or Karmic Guide? It’s extremely close on all of these, in my opinion. This is another card that will need testing. At just under $4, this could go either way, though I always lean toward the idea that cards will go down. Keep a close eye if you like the looks of this one.

Definitely a cool card, but the question of whether it is worth cutting another of the excellent five-drops in white remains. I’d be much more inspired if lands were among the permanent types in the card text. As is, I’m again saying that I’m going to need to see this one in action. At $6 for mythic, this could see a big price increase if white-based control is good in Standard, but again, I’m leaning bearish. There are infinite good high-drops in the world and only so many slots. For this reason, I’m aiming to get the Gearhulk cycle in the $2 to $3 range.

Unless you’re running shenanigans related to the template change, this is strictly better than Fiend Hunter, which sees play in many cubes.

Maybe? Five-mana wraths are bad, but you will sometimes get that extra turn back in life. I’m leaning toward no, but it’s worth a mention. The $2 price is fine, but you should be able to get it for $1 eventually.

This isn’t bad in control or aggro. But again, we’re comparing this to the likes of Brimaz and Monastery Mentor. At bulk pricing already, you can’t go wrong getting one for your on-deck binder at least.

Four-mana reanimates aren’t usually played, but this one is in an unusual color and could be of interest. Then again, I’ve never seen Resurrection in a cube.

Blue

The threshold to make it into the blue section is extremely high. Let’s see what we’ve got.

If you’re running Augur of Bolas or Omenspeaker, you can (and should!) replace one of them with this guy.

This strikes me as way too slow for cube—it’s a five-mana enchantment that does nothing upon casting—but I can’t deny how sweet it would be to go off with this thing. Ultimately, though, this is more likely to be an EDH card than Cube. This is a future bulk mythic, so the $2 it’s at right now seems high.

I think this is the first card covered today that I’m more or less guaranteeing will get a spot in my cube. Think about how this compares to Snapcaster Mage and the total cost of flashing back something from your graveyard with Snapcaster—I have a lot to cover today, so while I’d love to wax poetic about how good this card is, I’m going to let you go through that thought process yourself. This card is great, and $5 could be a bargain if it is adopted in competitive play, which I expect to some level. (There is a small chance that not having access to sorceries will make this worse than I think, so keep that in mind as you observe the card in play.)

Black

Black doesn’t offer a lot for Cube in this set, which is sad, because unlike blue, black needs all the help it can get.

This requires way too much energy to be a good standalone card, and Massacre Wurm just seems more appealing for a similar effect at the same cost. Pass. I didn’t look up its price, but I predict it is a future bulk mythic.

One-mana discard is always worth a look, and this one comes with a scry attached. I’m not sure it will make the cut in my cube—it is powered and tries to do broken, often non-creature-related things—but I think this will be a fine inclusion in more creature-focused lists.

It’s been a while since I’ve seen a list that includes Dark Hatchling. Gearhulk is better that that in several ways, but how does it compare to cards like Grave Titan, Massacre Wurm, and Sheoldred? This is powerful, no doubt, but I’m not sure it outranks anything else black is doing at its top end. I’m definitely waiting to purchase at the current $5 price tag.

Red

Red has stuff.

I’ve never seen Tormenting Voice in a cube, and this nets you the same number of cards, but it digs deeper. I don’t expect it to make it into most lists, but it’s worth knowing about.

Yeah, this card is nuts. I’ll never buy a Standard planeswalker at its Standard-staple price, so I’m expecting to wait until rotation for this one to make it into my list. That said, if this starts seeing play in Modern, Legacy, or Vintage (each of which is less likely than the last), we could be looking at a Liliana of the Veil- or Jace, the Mind Sculptor-style always-going-to-expensive planeswalker. Keep an eye out for your opportunity to get yours at the best price, but it’s going to be a few weeks before you really need to start thinking about that.

Letting your opponent have choices is never great, but this might truly be a no-win situation for them. Red doesn’t usually include a lot of high-drops, so you’ll have decide whether you want to make space for this. I think it’s definitely comparable in power level to Inferno Titan, though, so I’m willing to give it a shot. All these Gearhulks are around $5, and again, I’m bearish and aiming at $2ish, but I’m also aware of the possibility that any of them could be good and go up.

This might be a fun card to have in your cube, but I’m not convinced it’s a powerful one. I’d like to see it played more than I would actually like to play with it. Bulk pricing is appropriate for a pickup here.

Mono-red aggro used to hurt for three-drops, but the last few years has really changed that. This is no Goblin Rabblemaster, but it’s plenty playable. I don’t see any reason not to snap one up at 36 cents, where it is right now on TCGplayer. This card does a lot and if RDW is good in Standard, this should be a part of its success.

I bring this up just so I can point out power creep. This would have been the money card of the set fifteen years ago or so, but today, it’s not even good enough for Cube. What are you going to take out? Hellrider? Koth of the Hammer? New Chandra? Avalanche Riders? Fiery Combustion? No, there’s no four-drop in red worth removing for this. Not unless you’re already digging deep for that slot.

Green

Green is as green as always.

It’s like Thragtusk but for C/Ubes! (It is not good enough for higher-power-level lists.)

This may be the best standalone energy card in the set. It’s only good if your cube supports green aggro (mine does not), but it seems like it could snowball pretty well in such a list.

Fight cards (although this technically isn’t one) generally aren’t good enough to make cube lists, but this is one of the more pushed ones we’ve seen. It’s worth keeping in mind if you’re looking for removal in your green section.

I’m not really excited by this card, but I have to imagine the power level is high enough to make the cut in most cubes. If anything, my concern with planeswalkers is that there are so many playable ones at this point. Before long, we’re all going to be drafting Super Friends. I’m not willing to pay more than $10 for this, and I’d really like to get it for $5.

This is like Wolfir Silverheart, except potentially better. Its design is so boring compared to the other Gearhulks, but this card is pushed. As such, it is about twice as much as the others, and not such a unique ability that I feel rushed to buy. I’m aiming for $2 to $3, just like the other Gearhulks, no matter how pushed.

A three-mana Regrowth that can scale up seems worth a look. I wouldn’t pay anything more than bulk-rare pricing for it, but I like the card well enough.

Multicolored

I’ve first-picked Mulldrifter enough to know that this card is great. Azorius has a lot of very good choices for Cube, so some owners will have trouble making space, but this is clearly good enough based on power level.

Ugh, another Azorius card to make space for? This is a planeswalker that draws cards and protects itself. What more could we want? A better price, that’s what. I’m looking at $10 or less.

This is cute disruption for WB aggro to play against spell-focused decks (did anyone say Storm?). I’ve found Orzhov to be pretty shallow compared to other color combinations, so while I’m not super convinced this will be good enough, it’s worth more of a look than it might otherwise be. Definitely a card to pick up for bulk pricing and not a penny more, though.

This card is awesome and it gets a slot. The end. At around $4 right now, I’m not opposed to picking it up right away, but I could see it as a $2 card if Standard players eschew it.

I don’t think this is a very good card, but at three mana, it could be a lot better than it looks. Izzet is the deepest color combination for Cube, so clearing a slot could be a serious issue. I don’t consider this planeswalker to be worth buying for anything more than $5.

Artifact

Forget Tendrils of Agony; this is the future of Storm. (Not really, but I find this care subjectively awesome and feel unreasonably drawn to it.)

This card is weird. I don’t think it will make the cut, but it’s weirdness appeals to me. Look at all the cards an RDW deck can “draw”! (Buy for bulk pricing if you want a copy. It’s a 1/1.)

I don’t have enough artifact creatures in my list to make this good, but maybe you do?

I don’t think vehicles look especially desirable for Cube, but there are a few with decent payoffs. Three-mana rocks usually have to offer something a little extra to be playable in Cube (think Coalition Relic, Worn Powerstone, and Pristine Talisman), and this might be enough to fit that category. At less than $1, it’s certainly not finances that should keep it out of your list.

It’s like a less-good Solemn Simulacrum, which is still quite excellent. This is getting a slot.

Having trample just might make this good enough to include for aggro. The crew cost is pretty low. I don’t know. Having not played with vehicles yet, it’s hard to say whether they have any hope of being good enough for Cube. This will definitely be an area of focus for the prerelease.

Maybe? Certainly if you’re supporting any type of metalcraft or affinity archetypes.

This pays you off for playing it and for paying the crew cost, so I suspect it is the most playable of the vehicles for Cube. Again, I’m not convinced on vehicles at all, but this is the closest. I can’t say if $5 feels like a good deal until I play with it, or at least vehicles in general.

Lands

These lands are great and I’m thrilled to complete the cycle. I think they’re better than the M10 lands, which are currently in my list, so there’s a future upgrade to look forward to. The Scars lands all got to the $5 to $8 range during Standard, with Seachrome Coast hitting $20 as UW Delver dominated. Lands these days seem to settle in at a lower price, though. Maybe that’s power level, maybe it’s player interest, maybe it has to do with commonality. In any case, I’m aiming for around $3 each for these, but I’ll pay $5 if I have to.

This seems like a reasonable inclusion, especially if you’re trying to support some of the colorless mana cards from Oath of the Gatewatch. Lands that do things are great to include if you can find a slot for them, which will be the real trick for something so marginally okay.

All the Cards Fit to Cube

That’s it, I’m done. Comments, questions: you know what to do.

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