We’re six months past the release of Murders at Karlov Manor, and that’s the timeframe at which we can be pretty confident that supply has hit maximum and attention is pretty low 

This is the time that I want to get into speculating on cards from this set (and its Commander subset, plus the Cluedo cards) and so let’s go over the things that have the best chance of paying us off in the future.

When I’m looking at a whole set, I want to start with cross-format staples, then Commander cards, then Constructed cards, and basically nothing after that. For MKM, there’s a clear place to start.

Surveil Lands (Borderless foil $17-$40, regular frame $9-$17) – These lands are all over the place since rotation, and have jumped in price basically since release. If you got in early, you’re looking at double-ups, at least to start with. 

Notably, though, we’re looking at the next set of Triomes. It didn’t take long for Modern players to add a one-of Triome to decks, as an additional target for fetchlands, but giving the fetchable lands a surveil trigger, that’s exceedingly powerful. 

As a result, I don’t think we’re done with this growth, but I’m expecting a trickle rather than a roar from here out. These lands have two years left in Standard, and they are worthy additions to every Commander and Modern deck that can run them. I don’t think these will grow enough to be good specs, but I would definitely get your personal copies now, rather than wait till they are $5 more. (No, I don’t think a card that goes from $10 to $15 in a year is a good spec. Allow me to link you a classic by Travis Allen that explains this concept, still very relevant a decade later)

Archdruid’s Charm (Foil EA $10) – Interestingly, the most popular card from MKM on EDHREC is Demand Answers, but I don’t want to spec on commons that way, though it’s a very good version of this effect. The Charm is the #3 card from the set, after the UB Surveil land, and makes for a great spec target. It’s been registered in 48,000 decks online, and big green decks will always be a thing in Commander. These are three very good abilities, and while there’s still a lot of vendors left, the card cannot be overlooked.

Wizards has started a cycle here, too. We’ve got Archmage’s Charm, and now Archdruid’s Charm, so presumably we’ll get the other three colors eventually. When the cycle is complete, I fully expect a Secret Lair drop for the set, but for now, I think this is a fantastic spec to hit $20-$25 in the next 12 months. 

Warleader’s Call (Foil Showcase $8.50) – Being in 36k decks already is impressive, and what it does is two things that boros decks tend to want. First, you want a way to buff everything that you have, and boom, here’s a three-mana Anthem effect. Combine that with a way to kill your opponent when you spew tokens onto the board, and you’re off to the races. We know this is a good ability to have, in the permanent type that is the most difficult to remove.

I think this has great potential both as a Standard card, as Bloomburrow gave some really amazing aggro effects, and in Commander. The Standard decks currently using it are rarely at a four-of, but I’m content with 2-3 copies showing up frequently.

Case of the Locked Hothouse (pack foil $6.50) – I like that it’s in 29k decks, and it’s what every green player wants to do. This effect exists in a lot of creatures, but the enchantment being harder to remove makes it so much better. Seven lands is pretty easy to do in the majority of green decks, and then you’re off to valuetown. 

The other appealing thing here is that Sagas are just reprinted less than other cards. It requires a different size of art and so we don’t get as many Secret Lair or other variations. Dodging the reprint risk (at least until Return to Return to Ravnica) makes me feel better about this.

Forensic Gadgeteer (Foil Dossier $3) – The combo potential is very high here, and it can combo in two different ways, both with the Clue synergies and with the reduction in costs. We’ve got another version of this card in Sai, Master Thopterist, and the most premium version of that is over $6. I like where this could go, but the hard part is that the investment may be locked up for quite a while. 

Pick your Poison (Foils $2) – There’s no reason for these foils to be this cheap when it’s played in as many sideboards as this is. It’s a very popular answer to The One Ring, and it was also a fun way to answer Vein Ripper in Pioneer. The recent bannings make that use-case less appealing, but it’s still a useful and flexible card. If you want to wait and see if it’s still popular in sideboards post-banning, I won’t argue.

Slime Against Humanity (Foils $3) – Purely, this is a play based on what has gone before. When a card rewards the playing of many in a row like this, the price gets high. Depending on the deck, the reprint can torpedo the value, but the great news here is that this card synergizes really well with two very popular themes: tokens and +1/+1 counters. This is a great card in a long list of strategies, and while there’s a lot of foils out there right now, they get bought in big clumps. Get a clump for yourself.

Crime Novelist (Foils $1) – Finally, let’s talk about a card that got a LOT of attention early on and now has dropped in the attention rankings. The ‘token artifacts’ method of cards has exploded in the last couple years, and the Novelist loves every bit of this. Adding additional mana after a Food, Clue, or Treasure sacrifice is something a lot of decks can’t pass up, and this will synergize with lots of cards that have yet to see print. Purely speculative, yes, but it’s already the #6 nonland card from the set. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

It might seem odd, but there’s yet another Secret Lair going on sale next Tuesday, August 27. 

We have ended the Brain Dead and the Festival in a Box has another 60 days to go, but yes, it’s time for the 50th Anniversary of Dungeons and Dragons! We’ve got five drops that are coming out and we need to look at if these are worth buying.

For each drop, I’m going to list the cards, their EDH inclusion rate, and the current most special version of the card and its price.

For mega-staples, the number of premium versions isn’t a huge deal, but for most of these cards, there is no other special version aside from the pack foil.

Fell the Mighty (50k, Surge foil 50¢)

Faithless Looting (364k, Mystical Archive foil $14)

Goldspan Dragon (130k, FEA $40)

Reality Shift (200k, Borderless foil $1)

Monster Manual (51k, Prerelease foil $8)

Ponder (285k, SL Showdown foil $120)

Acererak the Archlich (17k, 900 as Commander, $48 Ampersand foil)

The big draw here is the Goldspan Dragon, who sees play in any number of Treasure decks. This is the drop that appears to be the best value on its own, between the Dragon and several cards lacking special versions but have good inclusion numbers. None of these are bad cards, and even if you’re not currently running them, they are worth considering. 

Reality Shift needs special attention, because it feels like this version should be more than $1 but there is an absolute boatload of the borderless foil uncommon out there. I think this version will end up as the most expensive, but it’ll be hard for this to be too much more pricey than the borderless version.

Astarion, the Decadent (20k, incl. 3k as Commander, Prerelease foil $17)

Exquisite Blood (109k, SL Dracula foil $34)

Sanguine Bond (129k, TSR Retro foil $17)

Anguished Unmaking (244k, Textured foil $27)

Mortify (122k, Player Rewards $4)

This is solid value, considering that there’s a whole lot of Mortify and Unmaking out there. Having the two enchantments that combo off together (plus you gaining life/opponent losing life) with matching art is good, and this drop should also hold value well, even if you don’t like the character as a being or as a card. So many decks play the pair of five-drop enchantments, and so I think this will be a solid drop.

Karlach, Fury of Avernus (65k, prerelease foil $37)

City on Fire (72k, FEA $7)

Stranglehold (12k, Judge foil $8)

Thrill of Possibility (228k, Mystical Archive 50¢)

Dolmen Gate (38k, Lorwyn pack foil $120)

City on Fire feels like it should have gotten there, but Karlach being in so many decks is a testament to the awesome ability to gain a second combat, with first strike added, for no cost beyond her own. It’s very hard to argue with the ability, though it’s difficult to copy/clone.

If you’re buying this drop, it’s either in the bundle or you believe in this Karlach long-term. The other cards just aren’t played enough to be worthwhile. (Dolmen Gate’s price is an effect of too little supply. This version will be lucky to be $10.)

Karazikar, the Eye Tyrant (25k, 1k as Commander, $12 EA nonfoil)

Oubliette (22k, Arabian Nights nonfoil $31)

Fling (44k, Blood Bowl SL $4)

Fire Covenant (36k, SL foil $31)

Snuff Out (51k, Mercadian Masques foil $180)

Defile (77k, MH1 Timeshifted Foil $5)

Snuff Out is in a lot more decks than you’d think, but it hasn’t been made really popular online. This is a very mid-tier drop, and I will be happy to go after singles here. There are several $7 versions of Snuff Out, and the price should be attractively low here when the drops start arriving. 

Xanathar, Guild Kingpin (15k, 1500 as Commander, $24 Ampersand foil)

Bribery (24k, $180 Mercadian Masques foil)

Stifle (14k, $60 Invocation foil)

Delay (65k, $14 Future Sight foil)

Blood Money (41k, $5 Prerelease foil)

Drown in the Loch (71k, $23 Special Guests foil)

Xanathar is a popular choice for the decks that want to do things with other peoples’ decks. Tasha, the Witch Queen and Gonti, Canny Acquisitor are excellent examples of these decks, and Xanathar fits right into such strategies. The sneaky card to watch out for here is Drown in the Loch, as it’s still a played card in Modern and occasionally in Pioneer. Blood Money isn’t a bad choice if you want a black Wrath, and Bribery will always have a home. 

I think this drop will hold value nicely, as it’s hard for me to see special versions of these cards not holding a total of $40 in value, and I plan on getting some extra copies of Drown in the Loch, hopefully as low as $5-$10 when supply reaches its maximum.

We don’t yet know the bonus cards, or the level of bundle discount, or if there will be any bonuses for higher spending. The ‘spend X, get X’ promotions haven’t been needed to help some Lairs sell out fast, so we might not get these anymore.

I am doubtful that this set of drops has a fast sellout, but the overlap between Magic and D&D cannot be discounted. My guess is that it never sells out completely, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the D&D art one sells out first, just due to the staples present within. If the bundles turn out to be the right level of discount, none of these are truly bad, but more than one will take a long while to be profitable.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

I admit it: I adored the first Mystery Booster experience at conventions. I went to GP Reno, in late February of 2020, just before Covid shut everything down. It was glorious, a set of packs that could hold just about anything, including a lot of pricey reprints. I’d gone to the GP, towing a big light-up sign that advertised CUBE DRAFT in big letters, because I love cubing. When I was there, though, I found that people didn’t want to Cube: they wanted to draft MYB over and over again. 

Looking back through my messages, I believe I did eleven drafts over the three days, and I probably could have squeezed in a little more. The reprints in the set, such as Mana Crypt, Ancient Tomb, Rhystic Study and Vampiric Tutor, offered a chance to spend $20 on a draft, open a chase rare and resell it, then do the whole thing over again. 

On top of that, I knew that the packs were hot sellers, to the point that judges were pre-opening packs. Sealed MYB1 packs were going for something silly like $25 if I remember correctly, and the playtest cards were at wild prices, including several hundred for things like Slivdrazi Monstrosity.

All this to say that the new Mystery Booster product is formulated much the same way, offering a unique experience that we can get at home via Secret Lair offering us Festival in a Box.

So let’s dig into what’s in the packs, what’s in the sale, and if it’s getting our money.

Mystery Booster’s core concept is simple: Each slot of the pack is pulling from a sheet of 121 cards. There are 1,815 cards possible in a pack, so your experience is going to go wild. I remember getting an easy 3-0 with a mono-black Mystery deck in Reno, and such things will be possible again. 

The distribution isn’t as perfect as ‘one slot is foil, you have a 1/121 chance of getting a certain foil card’ but it’s more like the Time Spiral Remastered OBF, where you had a slot that could be foil.

Officially, you’re going to get a Future Sight Frame foil in less than 5% of packs, and in less than 1%, it’ll be an Alchemy foil, one of seven special acorn-stamped foils.

Let’s take a beat and look at what it takes to get a foil card here: If you’re 5% to get a foil, that’s 1/20, times the 121 options for foils (according to the Card Image Gallery, there’s 9 white, 26 blue, 14 black, 18 red, 17 green, 5 multicolor, 25 artifacts, 7 lands) and that means to get a specific card, it’s one in 2,420 packs to get the specific foil you want. And that’s with rounding up to 5%!

There’s 24 packs in a box, so you’re going to need just under 101 boxes to get that Foil Oracle of the Alpha your cube is craving.

The other guaranteed slots are the white border (lol) and the playtest card. Each has 121 options, and that’s your odds, just over 5 boxes to get the white border Uro, Titan of Nature’s Wrath that you really want. 

As a result, the highs on this set are going to be stratospheric. The foils should all be at a premium price, considering the amount of product needed to get it and that there’s only two ways we know of to get them: Attend a MagicCon (This may or may not include other big Magic events, we’ll see) or buy the Festival in a Box, which goes on sale this coming Monday, August 19, at 9 am PST/12 noon EST/4 pm GMT.

This is available on the Secret Lair website and includes a MYB2 box, 3 Collector Boosters (Wilds of Eldraine, Commander Masters, and Lost Caverns of Ixalan), a pack of nonfoil convention promos, and a Secret Lair Drop: Li’l Legends. This has foil chibi versions of Reya Dawnbringer, Orvar, the All-Form, Drana, the Last Bloodchief, Lavinia, Azorius Renegade, and Omnath, Locus of Creation. The first three have no special versions, Lavinia is in retro and is a new white border in MYB2, and Omnath has a textless promo to spar with. Not an exciting Lair if it were by itself. 

(Keep in mind this is before the D&D 50th Anniversary Secret Lair Drop coming August 29!)

I think the quantity printed of the Li’l Legends Lair is what’s going to define the availability of this Festival in a Box. I imagine it’ll be available in similar amounts as other Lairs which didn’t sell out recently, and those numbers we can only guess at. The important detail, though, is that we know it takes roughly 100 boxes to get one specific foil and that means even if they sold 100,000 of these (more popular than any SL ever) that’s only 1,000 copies of each foil–for now. 

There will be more Festivals in a Box, and more MagicCon events to go to and open packs. It’s not confirmed that SCGCon will have MYB2 events, but you can be sure that every convention is pushing hard to get this product in order to get attendance up.

My inclination is to think that the hype right now will make this FIAB sell out, probably within the first 12 hours. We’ve been put in Secret Lair fever, and it’s been immensely profitable to grab the best drops early for reselling. Even at $249 for the kit, you’ve got a solid $50 in boosters, plus a foil Lair and nonfoil promos that will offset costs by $30-$40 or so.

We don’t have specific price data on the foils you can open (TCG has these cards as Presale until October, which severely limits who can sell on that platform.) but again, these are some very chase cards and we have the example of Time Spiral Remastered to see what can happen with a low drop rate. Remember what those early OBFs were going for? That’s what we’re dealing with. 

To be clear, I think that this first FIAB is very likely to lead to a profitable resale of the MYB2 box right away, but I’m not sure about every FIAB that will be offered. Every event that has this product increases the amount out there, and the ease of picking up singles. Vendors at these events will be ravenous to get the foils and resell, too. 

I’ll be interested to see what the prices are like for these cards after Vegas’s hype has died down, say Thanksgiving or so, and that’ll tell me if I’m going after the FIAB for other events too. For now, I think I’m likely to get two of these on Monday, with the intent to flip the boxes ASAP.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.