Generic Finance Article

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I want to talk about generic mana versus colorless mana now that the two terms can’t be used interchangeably, and I wanted to do it by making the article itself generic, but while that seemed meta and funny to me, it wouldn’t have come across and would have served to amuse only me, like an Easter egg hidden a little too well. I didn’t manage to make it happen, but I’m sure you won’t mind moving on, because there is a point I wanted to make this week: the differentiation between generic and colorless mana, a brand new concept, is going to matter. It’s going to matter a lot. So while the article itself won’t be generic, the subject matter is going to be. If you want a generic article I have a few sources I can point you to.

600-03697886 © Jean-Christophe Riou Model Release: No Property Release: No Generic Canned Food

The Distinction

This is what it looks like when I dive right into the topic at hand without a lot of foreplay. Try and keep up, I guess. It’s foreign to me, too, but we’ll manage.

Why is there a distinction between colorless and generic mana now? It didn’t matter before. As I’m sure 100 percent of you know, we have had to make the distinction because of a new mana symbol that has appeared on some spoiled cards.

endbringer

Look at Endbringer’s mana cost. Its converted mana cost is easy to suss out: it’s six. Endbringer costs six mana, five of which can be generic mana and one of which must be colorless mana; that is to say mana that originated from a colorless source. Generic refers to mana of any color used to pay non-specific mana costs like the little (5) in the circle we’re all used to. Like an Island putting a mana in your mana pool gives you a mana that can be used for blue or generic but not green, Island also gives you a mana that cannot be used for true colorless (non-generic) mana, which is denoted by the diamond mana symbol on this card in both the casting cost and two of the activated abilities. It’s not quite a sixth color, but it’s going to give you a little more trouble than you might imagine.  Planning for it is going to be important.

The Impetus

Why do we care about this distinction? Well, for starters, Endbringer is stupid. I love this card. I want it inside my decks. I want it inside me. I am not sure if I will be able to find room in all of my decks for this card, so I’m really trying to manage my expectations, but the more I think about how much I want to play this card and maybe some others like it, the more I realize it may be a little trickier than I thought. Colorless mana may not be as simple to come by as generic mana, and when the distinction matters, you need to really re-evaluate everything.

mirrorpool

Mirrorpool is a sexy, splashy EDH card that does everything I want a land to do. This plus a Crucible of Worlds is going to change the world. I was so doe-eyed over this card when it was first spoiled that I didn’t stop to consider how tricky this could be to activate. Five mana to make a clone is a bargain when it’s an ability on a land, but if we don’t have enough ways to make true colorless mana in our entire deck, we can’t play Mirrorpool at all. And I want to play Mirrorpool.

The Issue

Manabases in EDH are currently designed with accessing colored mana being pretty important. This may be a “basic land format,” where basics are just fine and cards like Burnished Hart, Solemn Simulacrum, Kodama’s Reach, and Myriad Landscape reward you for playing basic lands, and cards like Boundless Realms really reward you for playing basic lands, but we like access to the mana we need reliably. Players are so eager to make sure they get their colored mana that they don’t see a big issue with “risky” lands like Sejiri Refuge, Golgari Guildgate, and Gruul Turf. You notice players will play that last one, Gruul Turf, but aren’t super likely to play a card like Karoo which does the same thing but gives you a spare colorless rather than two colored mana, even in a mono-white deck? Players aren’t as in love with the Karoo effect as they are with having a land that taps for two colored mana every time they use it. This shows how important colored mana is to players. Whenever we need generic mana, Gruul Turf is good for two of them, helping us power out big spells like Genesis Wave or Primal Surge.

It’s trivial to generate generic mana, so we don’t think about how many sources we have, do we?

PopQuizHotShot

How many sources of true, non-generic, colorless mana do you have in your favorite EDH deck? Four? Five? Do you even know? Well, you probably have a Sol Ring, and maybe a Temple of the False God. Probably a few more. I’m going to estimate seven sources in a two-color deck, six for a three-color one, and maybe four for five-color lists. How close is this estimate?

The answer is a bit surprising. I started poking around online to find lists, mostly at random to try and get a decent sampling of what players are currently building. I found a Scion of the Ur-Dragon deck with one source (Maze’s End) right off the bat.  Some Oloro decks ran six or seven with sources like Pristine Talismanand some ran only three. I even found a few two-color decks that had zero ways to produce true colorless mana. Those decks were rare, but they exist.

Granted, the more likely a player was to be a tryhard with only one deck and load it up with fetches and shocks, the less likely they were to have sources of true colorless. Anyone can easily build with generating colorless in mind, but I think the point isn’t how easy it might be to fit more colorless sources in, but how hard it will be to take good, useful lands out to make room. Sure, we can upend our current mana bases and build them differently so we can jam one new card, but we probably don’t want to. Are there unobtrusive ways to still get the mana we need, not disrupt our lives too much, and have access to the true colorless mana we need? I have a few solutions—and there is money to be made.

Solution – Run Some Wastes

In a three-color deck, we already have cards like Burnished Hart, Solemn Simulacrum, Evolving Wilds, Myriad Landscape, etc. Jamming a few Wastes in there to tutor for means we can keep the same number of basics but have access to true colorless in the deck. We basically remove a few color-generating basics for a few Wastes.

Effectiveness as a Solution

This makes it harder for us to get colored mana. We could take every mana-producing land out and run 40 Wastes. Is that going to help us cast most of our spells? I hate the idea of weakening a deck’s ability to get colored mana. Otherwise, we’d run Rath’s Edge and Dust Bowl and Wasteland and Strip Mine and all the other utility lands in every deck. Unless your commander is an Eldrazi or a silver golem, you’re not going to want to take out colored basics for Wastes.

Is There Money to be Made? 

Yes, actually. I feel like Wastes will be everywhere and under-valued initially, but looking at snow-covered lands and foil snow-covered lands, I feel like foil Wastes could be as much as $10 in a year if they become popular in EDH. They’re almost certain to be undervalued at peak supply and rotation, and those are the two times I’d start to look at them. I’ve harped on this in other articles, so I won’t belabor the point, but Wastes are a card for some situations, just not solving our Endbringer problem.

Solution – Colorless Ramp

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We have a few lands and spells we could run that are such efficient ways to generate mana that we forgive the fact that the mana they give us is colorless.

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Effectiveness as a Solution

These do the trick, however a lot of these have restrictions. Whether you can only spend the mana on spells like with Shrine of the Forsaken Gods, have to sacrifice the land like with Crystal Vein, or having to wait like with Temple of the False God, these lands come with strings attached. However, we play with a lot of these cards already, because the restrictions aren’t so great as to keep us from playing them in decks that don’t require the colorless mana to be non-generic. If we want to jam a Kozilek or Endbringer (and I do want to jam Endbringer), that just makes these lands even better.

Is There Money to be Made?

Eh. The problem is the cards that are good enough to be played already are already expensive. Repeated reprintings has crushed the price of Temple of the False God to around $0.50, but the foil is $25 and seems safe but not poised to go anywhere but glacially upward. The cards that are the least obtrusive new inclusions have the fewest financial opportunities. The cards with the most room to grow are not played much now for a reason, and we’d need a huge increase in adoption to move the needle. My desire to play with a Staff of Nin that’s also a 5/5 isn’t enough, I fear. These cards do the trick, but they’re kind of doing the trick already. Sol Ring isn’t going to spike because it helps us draw a card with a bulk rare Eldrazi, it’s going to go in decks because it’s Sol Ring.

Solution – Lands That Do It All

Do you want to summon and activate Endbringer with the same lands that can help you play the Prophet of Kruphix that makes him even stupider? It’s pretty simple, really.

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Sexy, right?

Effectiveness as a Solution

Perfection. These give us two colors of mana and can also tap for true colorless, and don’t give us damage to boot. These can’t be tutored up with Burnished Hart like a Forest, fetched with a Misty Rainforest, or divined for with Cultivate, but these solve our problem and solve it good. If you have a Simic Guildgate, Thornwood Falls, or some other land that’s not super exciting but is in the deck because it’s cheap, taps for mana of two of your colors, and doesn’t deal you damage, you have a card to take out. Pain lands deal damage to you, but that rarely matters. The number of times I’ve lost games of EDH to my life total being reduced to zero pale in comparison to the number of times I’ve been milled, killed by commander damage when I had over 100 life, been hit with a quadrillion copies of Zealous Conscripts, or lost to Laboratory Maniac.  A pain land is “calibrated” for a 20-life format, so when you think about it, Yavimaya Coast deals about half a damage in EDH terms. I’ll pay half a life to get an entire mana any day.

Is There Money to be Made?

Yup. These were already a pretty good buy and these are a cheap solution for EDH decks. For a while I thought “check lands” were my go-to non-basic, two-colored land. The problem there is that there is a wild price divergence going on.

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It’s a little difficult to tout this cycle as the “answer” when there is such a price divergence going on. One has been reprinted much, much more often than the other, but you see my point. Jam a Sunpetal Grove all you want; I used to buy these for a buck cash from players before they stopped selling at all on TCGplayer for me. Enough players are fine playing guildgates and gain lands that come into play tapped that the fact that these sometimes don’t come into play tapped seems trivial.

Guildgates are durdly. Karoos don’t tap for colorless (except for actual Karoo). Shocks are expensive, and if you have them you’re playing them already and know they’re worth it. Too many utility lands like Alchemist’s Refuge dilute your ability to produce colored mana reliably, and even gold-star lands like ABU duals can’t get you the true colorless you need. Pain lands are perfect here. If only you could run more than one in a Vorel deck.

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This is the graph for an Origins foil. It’s under $3 with a lot of potential. There is the risk of even more reprints, true, but with core sets being a thing of the past, it’s less likely that we will see another printing. Most likely, the mana needs of each individual set will be covered by something new. For now, these cards are the cheapest they’re ever going to be and there are a lot of them in binders. If you can get these for buylist (cash is king no matter where you go), it’s pretty tough to lose. There is very little downside to adopting these in EDH and the number of lands each deck wants goes up precipitously depending on the number of colors it is. A two-color deck can only run one pain land, but a three-color deck can run three, and a five-color deck can run ten. Will it want to? I guess that all depends on how badly it wants to activate Mirrorpool and not Maze’s End.

It remains to be seen whether the few “true colorless” cards are going to be a significant price  driver in EDH. What is known is that with the pain lands being historically affordable and historically available and less likely than ever to be reprinted soon, these are a great target. Pain lands are generic. But that’s what we want.

PROTRADER: Their Second-Best Album

By: Travis Allen

If you’re reading this the day it goes live, Christmas is in two days. My condolences to all of you that receive intro decks from well-intentioned relatives. I suppose it’s too late for my open letter to friends and family members of Magic players to be useful, though if you have one aunt that waits until the last second to do her shopping, perhaps she’d take it to heart.

Gift-giving holidays make me anxious in a way that few things do, and receiving things like Theros intro decks is part of the reason why. This person tried—genuinely tried—to give you something they they thought would be meaningful to you, and you’re forced to feign excitement for a stack of cards you normally wouldn’t accept for free. Nothing stirs up a slurry of decisively unseasonal emotions like off-the-mark Magic card gifts. Blegh. Here’s hoping you handle it better than I do!

This year I took control of the holiday and opted to buy myself a Magic-laden Christmas gift. I have to say, I really surprised myself with my generosity. My magnanimity knows no bounds.

kkkkkk

I ended up purchasing nearly $2,000 worth of Expeditions lands over the course of the last week and a half or so, with the intention of keeping basically none of them. This is a speculative purchase, and I’m looking to profit on these within the next four months or so. I’m not just horn-tooting, though. I want to show you why I considered this, the research I did, and how I arrived at my decision. It’s my hope that by illustrating my process, you’ll see that doing your homework is vital to succeeding in these endeavors, and hopefully be able to apply these techniques to your own purchases down the road.

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Going Mad – More Expeditions

By: Derek  Madlem

We’ve known for a while that we were going to get 20 additional expeditions in Oath of the Gatewatch, then Mark Rosewater confirmed that they were, in fact, also going to be lands. The #mtgfinance hive mind quickly settled on the man lands and filter lands to be the most likely culprits. The “spoiling” of Mystic Gate seemed to confirm our suspicions, but then we were thrown for a bit of a loop and the dream scenario of ten random lands showing up  rather than the man lands came true.

Hierarchy

In my last article, I stated that the price for these lands doesn’t fall into a clear hierarchy like we saw with the fetches and shocks. We knew which were going to be the most expensive and every other would just fall in line behind it in a rough percentage based way. With this, that hierarchy is not as clear. Sure, we’re most excited about Wasteland at the top, and probably the least excited about Tectonic Edge, but then again…Tectonic Edge sees more tournament play than Wooded Bastion by a pretty significant margin.

So let’s take a look at each of these and figure out where they fit in with past printings financially.

Wasteland

wasteland

Wasteland exists in a really weird place on this list because it first appeared in a set that existed before foil printings but has since had three, count ’em three, promo foil printings. The prices breakdown of these is like this:

Original Art – $250
Second Printing – $205
2015 Judge foil – $275

The latest printing is still sitting a bit high because these haven’t been fully dispersed to judges yet, or maybe they have, who really understands the new judge foil program? I think it’s pretty reasonable to expect that $250 is going to be the ceiling on the Expeditions Wasteland because “OG” pimp trumps “new money” pimp, a phenomena we saw with the original Onslaught fetches vs. Expeditions.

I would expect the Expeditions copy to settle in the $200-225 range, and I also expect the 2015 Judge FOIL to fall into line around $200 with the second printing once they have been more widely dispersed.

Horizon Canopy

horizoncanopy

Horizon Canopy has the dubious honor of being expensive as all holy hell on the basis that it’s just kinda rare. It’s not widely played as more than a one of in Modern outside of Bogles and is pretty much only showing up as a singleton in Legacy Maverick and Death & Taxes decks.

Current foil copies of Horizon Canopy are hovering around $175 and I doubt this copy is going to supplant the original. I’d put the ceiling for this card at $150, but realistically that number is going to creep lower as this takes much of the upward pressure off of the original printing of Horizon Canopy printings. Giving players an alternative when it comes to foiling out decks is never good for the price of the original and Canopy typically showing up as a one of doesn’t help…Expeditions make a great choice for singleton “pimping”. I’d expect this to settle out around $100-125.

It’s likely that these two are the “top dogs” of the Oath expeditions, but where’s everything else fit in?

Ancient Tomb

ancient tomb

This is where things get tricky. Ancient Tomb shows up in variety of Legacy decks and in Vintage Workshop decks. There is a foil printing of Ancient Tomb but is has a major issue – it’s a From the Vault printing. This series has been loved and hated for providing foil versions of cards that were never printed in foil and then doing so with a finish that makes the cards somehow less desirable. The Expeditions Ancient Tomb gives Magic’s 1% something that they don’t have to be ashamed of.

The FTV Ancient Tomb is hovering around $16 currently, and there is little chance that this isn’t in the 4x to 5x range of that printing right? Even an Expeditions Smoldering Marsh is $45, so $60-75 seems like a very easy threshold to cross, but where does it stop? I’ll be honest, I am not well versed in the mindset of Vintage players when it comes to pimping their decks. How do they feel about Expeditions in general? It makes perfect sense to prefer the original printing of a fetch land to the latest incarnation, but what about in a heads up dual with FTV?

There is a world where these end up closer to $200 than $100, but I’m not sure whether or not we’re living in it. The biggest drawback for Expeditions is the atrocious border and mostly opaque text boxes that keep them from actually being “full art”. Maybe there’s a few among those reading this that can shed some light on how the Vintage pimps feel about Expeditions.

Forbidden Orchard

forbidden orchard

Forbidden Orchard has what I feel is one of the cooler artworks in this round of Expeditions, but is pretty much featured in a single deck in all of Magic – Oath of Druids in Vintage. Pack foils for the original are under $20 and there’s also a FTV printing that’s sitting around $7, so the value of this Expeditions card is going to lean heavily on the question we asked with Ancient Tomb: how do the most hardcore of Vintage players feel about Expeditions in general?

Strip Mine

stripmine

Now if I was a smarmy turd, I would point out that the artwork for this appears to be quite the opposite of strip mining as it’s clearly underground…oh right, I am, and I did. Once you get past the technically inaccurate artwork for this, you have another FTV vs. Expeditions cage match. Strip Mine is only allowed as a one of in Vintage and gets heavy play in Commander because ruining someone else’s fun is the name of the game.

In general I feel like the low water mark for any of these Expeditions has to be the $45 mark we see with Smoldering Marsh, but pimping our Commander decks IS a thing, and shiny singletons still command (see what I did there?) a premium. With the FTV printing hovering around the $30 mark, I can’t see this being much more than $60, but again, who knows? Strip Mine is the only card that is literally in each and every Commander deck I’ve ever built, so I feel it’s pretty universal in that format and there are a lot of Commander pimps out there, not to mention that whole Vintage thing again…

Dust Bowl

dustbowl

Dust Bowl is for those Commander terrorists that just want to watch the world burn. Pack foils for this card are around $75, so that seems to be a pretty reasonable ceiling for these as they do not really see much play outside of Commander.

Eye of Ugin

Eye of Ugin

One the topic of spicy one ofs we have Eye of Ugin. With two printings and foil copies for as low as $7, there’s not too much hope for this one unless there’s a sudden surge to really embrace Expeditions as the de facto pimp edition. While this does see constructed play in Modern Tron and fringe play in Legacy Cloudpost decks, it’s unlikely this one is going to get past that “technically it’s an Expeditions” price at the bottom of the pile.

Mana Confluence

Mana Confluence

Not really excited about this one kneecapping my spec on foil Mana Confluences for eternal formats, but at least the art has something happening on it this time around. Mana Confluence has the dubious honor of being the best land for a bad deck. Generally only showing up in Legacy Dredge and Modern Bloom Titan decks doesn’t help the forecast for this one immensely, but it’s ability to slot into nearly any multicolor Commander deck makes it at least a desirable card for some players. I’d put this one somewhere in the $45-60 range as it’s probably less desirable to own than any of the shock lands but it’s still a Expeditions land.

Kor Haven

korhaven

Kor Haven was a good catch on Wizards’ part for a land that’s cool and fits thematically on Zendikar. Kor Haven is one of those cards that I still feel like Commander players have failed to rediscover as foil copies have been steady around $45 for as far back as there are data points on it’s price. This doesn’t make for an extremely compelling case that this one’s price will be much different as it’s not likely that the Expeditions copy is even half as rare as the original printing. There’s a chance that the Expeditions copy being printed makes the Commander hive mind remember this card exists, but probably not enough to really move the needle.

Tectonic Edge

tectonicedge

Tectonic Edge has the dubious honor of being the worst of three uncommons to appears as Expeditions. This is going to see far more Modern play than Smoldering Marsh and friends, but it might be hard for players to get past the fact that Tectonic Edge was printed at uncommon during this decade. It gets played in Modern but not in any significant quantity. Sure it sees play in Commander, but mostly as a budget alternative to Wasteland and Strip Mine…and there just aren’t a ton of budget pimps in the world. Tectonic Edge is likely going to sit on the price floor, or be the one to break through it completely. I would not be at all surprised to see these as low as $25.

Filter Lands

firelitthicket

Filter lands haven’t made huge waves in constructed formats since their rotation from Standard, typically showing up as singletons outside of aberrations like the Geralf’s Messenger Jund before the Bloodbraid Elf ban. However, they remain extremely popular in Commander and are one of the premiere dual land cycles in that format.

Currently their prices range from Graven Cairns on the low end at $18 to Cascade Bluffs on the high end at $65. Wherever these fall on the spectrum, we can expect loose ranking based on color desirability with the blue ones on the top end and the Naya colors on the low end with black / red trailing as the caboose, because let’s face it – nobody likes Graven Cairns.

I think it’s fair to guesstimate these falling primarily in the $50-75 range, as there’s not a huge demand to push these above and beyond their predecessors.

Wild Cards

The two questions that will most impact the prices of these Expeditions are “how are these received by Vintage players?” and “how much do Commander players care about consistency?” It’s quite possible that demand (and therefore price) for the filter lands goes higher if Commander players embrace these lands in general.

If you’re already pimping your commander deck with Expeditions shocks and fetches, there’s a decent chance you say “might as well” and follow suit with filter lands, Wastelands, Strip Mines, and Mana Confluences. A similar phenomena is possible within the Vintage community when it comes to the Ancient Tomb/Forbidden Orchard/Mana Confluence conundrum.

Of course there’s always those eBay preorder prices to  look at for reference…looks like Forbidden Orchard is sitting unsold at prices anywhere between $55 and $400 so you can take that for what it’s worth.

PROTRADER: The Winners vs. Losers Debate

While navigating a tumultuous stock market and a rapidly evolving MTG market, I often find parallels between the two worth sharing. While sometimes not directly applicable, strategies from one economy can educate us on how we should consider the other. This is perhaps my favorite part about writing for this site – the freedom I have to explore the similarities between the two in an academic way.

However not everything between the two matches up perfectly. Sometimes a mindset that is commonly applied in the stock market doesn’t make sense to consider in MTG finance.

This week I will write about another paralleled question between Wall Street and MTG finance. You’ll notice along the way that the questions don’t fit 100%, but they still trigger worthwhile discussion that leads to an actionable recommendation. Through this framework I believe we can make some deterministic conclusions around what the best pick-ups are going forward as we enter 2016.

The premise: it’s all about winners vs. losers. Allow me to explain.

Winners or Losers

 One of my favorite podcasts (besides Brainstorm Brewery of course) is the port of the television show Fast Money. The CNBC show is all about traders and their reactions to the constant fluctuations and news of the stock market. They do a nice job keeping things entertaining – although I’ll admit the traders, while “famous”, make their fair share of errors. I never follow their direction blindly. But I do like the way they pose up questions and analyses.

One question they consider frequently that I really enjoy is whether or not one should look to buy the “winner” or “loser” of a given segment. For example, they may touch on retail stocks and discuss whether one should buy a beaten up stock such as that of Macy’s or a recent winner like Nike. In a nutshell, they’re addressing whether they feel it’s better to ride the momentum of the winner or bet on a catch-up play from the loser.

Macy's

The question is certainly worth considering seriously. By definition the losing stock, such as Macy’s, is certainly out of favor on Wall Street. Meanwhile Nike is basically the darling of the Dow, having the best 2015 performance of the 30 stock index. However as long as the “loser” is still profitable, at some point it may become an attractive enough value to pick up. Conversely the winner may be getting too expensive, facing resistance to the upside.

Now let’s try to apply this to Magic finance. Random buyouts aside, prices rise and decay in MTG due strictly to supply and demand. There really isn’t as strong of an equivalent of “in-favor” and “out-of-favor” like there is in the stock market. There’s far less emotional selling and buying (not zero, but certainly less). Macy’s is certainly hated right now and Nike is a hedge fund’s dream. W can’t necessarily draw this parallel to, say, Khans fetches and Zendikar fetches perfectly. But we can try.

Delta

Tarn

Over the past few months, Scalding Tarn has spiked, pulled back, and then continued its rise. More importantly, buylists on the Zendikar fetches has consistently risen for the most part. On the other hand vendors are paying less on Polluted Delta now than they were over the summer. You could say Khans fetches aren’t in favor right now while their Zendikar counterparts certainly are.

These trends are driven purely by fundamentals. There isn’t any excessive emotional momentum at play here – Standard players are moving their Khans fetches in anticipation of rotation and this volume is outweighing Modern and Legacy demand, where as Zendikar fetches aren’t facing that same pressure. It’s as simple as that. If asked which is the better pickup, I’d argue both will ultimately trend together once Khans is well out of Standard. Until then, the play is to stick with the “winner” – not because of momentum, but because Scalding Tarn and Verdant Catacombs will particularly experience greater demand as we enter 2016 while Khans fetches continue to suffer from rotation.

Another Winner/Loser Comparison: Counterspells

 Occasionally, a publicly traded company will announce a secondary offering. This is essentially the creation of more stock to raise cash. The practice dilutes value of current shareholders by increasing the supply in the market. In a way, it’s kind of the equivalent of a reprint. Except often times a company offers more shares to raise capital for a given investment, which is intended to pay out in the long term. Reprints in Magic offer zero long term benefit.

Because of this difference, a winner/loser comparison involving reprints is again not a perfect parallel with the stock market. But I can still use the setup of winner versus loser to provide guidance on where I think the market goes from here. For example, let’s compare the relative “winner” Force of Will with a reprinted Modern counterpart, Cryptic Command.

Force

Cryptic

Force of will has shown cyclical behavior over the past few years, but the general direction is upward. Cryptic Command on the other hand, spiked in Spring 2014 but has since pulled back drastically due to the Modern Masters 2015 reprint. Once again, this isn’t an emotional reaction in price – the supply of Cryptic has increased significantly, impacting fundamentals.

If I assume supply will remain constant going forward (i.e. no more reprints), my recommendation is to follow the option with more demand upside in the future: Cryptic Command. Modern is growing in popularity and has the Pro Tour season to support demand. On the other hand, Legacy demand may falter as there are fewer premier Legacy tournaments in 2016 than recent years. While the cyclical nature of Force of Will may suggest there’s upside in the next 3 months, I can’t imagine the growth is significant enough to merit a material investment. I’d much prefer getting into Cryptic Command, betting on the next Modern surge.  It also helps that we have data on other Modern Masters reprints that have since recovered in price.

One More Comparison: Discard

Perhaps the most difficult winner/loser comparison lies in the one-drop discard spell category. Which is the better pickup: Inquisition of Kozilek (winner) or Thoughtseize (loser)?

Seize

Inquisition

Looking at the charts above, we see that the top buy price of Inquisition has risen from $3 to nearly $8 throughout 2015. Meanwhile the top buy price of Theros Thoughtseize has decreased from around $11 to $10 after hitting a peak over the summer. The fact that these two discard spells are nearing parity in price is baffling given their discrepancy in rarity and (supposed) power level.

While it’s fair to ask the question of which is the better pickup, once again we have a situation where prices are driven strictly by fundamentals. The supply of Thoughtseize is higher than that of Inquisition despite the rarity difference. This is due to the recent printing of Thoughtseize in the high print-run set Theros. On the other hand Inquisition of Kozilek was opened far less being a third set from years ago. Once again this isn’t a love/hate comparison like Macy’s and Nike – this isn’t about emotions.

Still, the question begs an answer. If I was forced to choose, I’d have to ask for another month to decide. Why a month? Because I want to see what gets printed in Oath of the Gatewatch first. With the recent Kozilek spoiler, a reprint of Inquisition of Kozilek makes tremendous sense. I simply cannot advocate picking up copies of this discard spell until we confirm it is not getting reprinted. Assuming it dodges reprint again, I’d recommend Inquisition. Until then, the safer pickup is Thoughtseize.

Wrapping It Up

 Momentum is a term that’s thrown around often on Wall Street. A stock that has done well over recent months is considered to be “in-favor”, sometimes leading to continued upward movement. On the other hand a hated stock can sometimes get beat up unfairly simply because of its recent poor performance. Macy’s and Nike are two stocks that reflect this dichotomy. Another good example would be the Facebook/Twitter pair. The former is incredibly well-run and has the dedicated support from Wall Street. The latter has struggled to grow its user base, and therefore it has been an absolute dog of the Nasdaq. With each passing day, Facebook seemingly climbs higher while Twitter gets beaten up, perhaps unfairly, even more and more.

The same comparisons can be made in the Magic market. However, buyouts aside MTG cards don’t really exhibit emotional “momentum” in the same fashion. Typically price movements happen due to fundamental shifts in supply and demand. Still, the winner/loser debate is one that is certainly applicable to MTG finance. The choices really are boundless: Wasteland (loser) or Dark Depths (winner)? Jace, the Mind Sculptor (loser) or Liliana of the Veil (winner)? Dark Confidant (loser) or Stoneforge Mystic (winner)? Each choice presents two options: either bet on a card that’s already moved up significantly or bet on a card that is seeing fundamental decay in price.

Perhaps looking at these comparisons can help us conclude a broader opinion of the market. For example, my predisposition to choose Zendikar fetches over Khans fetches and Inquisition of Kozilek (barring reprint) over Thoughtseize is an indicator that I prefer Modern cards printed at least a couple years ago over recently printed cards. But my pick of Cryptic Command over Force of will indicates my belief in Modern’s future success over that of Legacy. Such broadening conclusions can really help dictate one’s ongoing investment strategy.

In fact, that’s essentially what I’ve done here. By starting with some individual questions, I’ve boiled down my investment strategy going forward. I’m going to target Modern cards over Legacy cards and older cards over newer. While perhaps not so clear cut, these guiding principles will ensure I think more mechanically about my options before committing funds in a directionless fashion. If nothing else, this winner/loser exercise has helped me this much.

I’d recommend considering these comparisons and using your own answers to drive broader investment strategies. Perhaps you’ll surprise yourself with where you end up. If nothing else, you’ll think more diligently about the many investment decisions we face on a daily basis. Just remember – in MTG finance prices don’t move on momentum (besides buyouts). Card prices rise and decay due to shifts in supply and demand. Wasteland isn’t down in price because it’s simply hated – it is genuinely in less demand relative to six months ago. So when picking losers, be cognizant of the evolving metagame and format favorability. We all like an underdog, but picking one with the right risk/reward equation will be the best way to bank on these out-of-style cards throughout 2016.

Sig’s Quick Hits

  • Arabian Nights Erhnam Djinn has just hit an all-time high thanks to demand for the Old School MTG format. Star City Games has recently increased their price of NM copies to $69.99, and they only have 2 MP copies in stock with a price tag of $49.99. I’m surprised by two things here. First, the fact that their Near Mint price tag is substantially below TCG Player – this is likely to change. Second, their Moderately Played price is 70% of their Near Mint price. This suggests to me that the demand is indeed from ‘93/’94 players and not collectors, who would generally be willing to pay a much larger premium for NM copies over MP copies.
  • It’s really interesting to see which printings of Birds of Paradise have gone up in price lately. A cursory look through Star City Games’ stock can give us a peek into which editions are most in-demand recently. They are out of stock of Tenth Edition copies ($6.45), NM Revised copies ($6.65), NM Fourth Edition copies ($6.99), NM Ravnica copies ($6.99), and Unlimited copies ($69.99). They also have low stock in most other sets. It would appear that the lack of reprint in Origins didn’t matter – this one-drop is still rising in price.
  • Chaos Orb is almost completely sold out on the internet. Chalk this up to demand from collector’s along with Old School MTG players. Star City Games is completely sold out of the card across each printing, with Unlimited’s price tag currently at $149.99. I fully expect them to increase their prices on all three printings…if they can ever get some back in stock again, that is.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY