By: Jared Yost

That is the question. First I should probably explain why.

Today I’d like to compare two cards to each other that are eerily similar but at the same time vastly different – Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker and Stormbreath Dragon. I have a feeling that one of these cards could be a breakout mythic that reaches heights of $30+ over its Standard life. The question is, which one?

How They’re Similar

Just look at how similar these two cards are on the surface:

• Exact same mana cost (3RR)
• The number 4 is everywhere on these cards. Sarkhan becomes a 4/4 on the first ability, Stormbreath is a 4/4. Sarkhan even has four loyalty to start with and deals four damage with his second ability! So many fours.
• Both have haste, flying, and are dragons
• Both are mythic rares from the first set in their respective blocks

If you would have told me that there would be two cards in Standard that are this similar on the surface I would have told you that Wizards R&D would never do that, it is too lazy even for them. Now that it actually has happened, I can actually prove that they’re getting lazy! Yeah, let’s make sure to have that awesome mythic rare hasty dragon in every set that can appeal to spikes and casuals… At least its not a titan!

Wait though, let’s point out the differences before we start saying that Wizards has been getting really lazy.

The Differences

Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker

• Indestructible as a creature
• Provides creature removal
• Planeswalkers get around sorcery speed spells / abilities

Stormbreath Dragon

• Has protection from white
• Monstrosity ability can provide extra reach
• Also creates a bigger dragon, for a more explosive ability that can finish a game faster than Sarkhan

Looking at the differences the two cards operate entirely different from each other. Sarkhan can perform the role of both control and aggro when needed, whereas Stormbreath is the definition of a midrange card and can only provide that role due to the linearity of it being a creature.

Based on the differences lets delve into the specific good and bad things about each card.

Pros and Cons of Each

Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker

• Pros of being a Planeswalker
  • Planeswalkers are hugely popular with the casual crowd, much more so than dragons by themselves generally speaking. Financially, this means that they will retain a good amount of their value even through rotation and could cause the Planeswalker to spike if it is played regularly in Standard.
  • Planeswalkers also cater to spike if they do… well, spikey things. Generally speaking, if a Planeswalker is good at protecting itself (the classic case being Elspeth, Knight-Errant with the token generating ability) then it has a good chance of being a Standard all-star. Other abilities in this category include removal and card advantage abilities.
    • Sarkhan has removal, but at great cost to his loyalty. His ultimate can go off and provide “card advantage” in the late game but that is a best case scenario that will not happen most of the time. His only loyalty increasing ability is becoming the 4/4 with haste until end of turn, which doesn’t provide any of the extra spike abilities to take him over the edge. Thus why he is only played as a two-of in decks right now.
  • As mentioned in the differences section, he can play the role of aggro or control when needed. Versatility generally speaking means that card has a higher chance of seeing play than a more linear card that can fall out of a favor if the metagame changes.

• Cons of being a Planeswalker
  • Legendary permanent. Can only have one Sarkhan out at the same time.
  • Becoming a 4/4 only lasts until end of turn. Thus, he cannot block.
  • Cannot become greater than 4/4 without additional cards / synergies. Strombreath’s Monstrosity ability is all part of the same midrange package.

Stormbreath Dragon

• Pros of being a creature
  • Protection from white can be much more relevant than indestructible in the current Standard.
    • Since indestructible only lasts while Sarkhan is a creature, it matters much less than protection from white that is always on.
    • Three out of five clans have white in them, so if you play Stormbreath odds are the protection from white is going to matter in your matchup.
  • Monstrosity can provide the extra reach to finish the game that turn
    • Sarkhan generally cannot provide extra reach, except through his ultimate ability. This ability can go off but odds are when you play Sarkhan your opponent will be gunning for him and it will be harder to do this than monstrifying Stormbreath.
      • Strombreath you can monstrify two turns after you play it if on curve, Sarkhan needs a minimum of three turns to ultimate no matter what.

• Cons of being a creature
  • The old argument “dies to removal” – much easier to remove this card than Sarkhan generally speaking.
  • Only really fits into midrange strategies.
  • Monstrosity only hits players, not creatures.

Other Considerations

• Theros vs Khans of Tarkir
  • Theros we can all agree was much less popular than Khans due to the fetchland reprint hype. Therefore, I believe that over the life of Khans players will be cracking significantly more packs than Theros.
    • However, In terms of Sarkhan himself, I’m not sure if cracking additional packs will necessarily affect his price all that much. He has many more areas of interest than Stormbreath Dragon from players due to being a Planeswalker and his price will reflect that over time.
• Price point entry is fairly low for both cards
  • Stormbreath’s lowest price to date was around $11 in August and Sarkhan’s lowest price to date is the current price of $17. Stormbreath is currently $15.50, up $4.50 from the low.
    • Being up $4.50 means that Stormbreath is already starting to see some a price increase due to being played in Standard since the release of both cards.

Past Similar Card Performance

Thundermaw Hellkite would be the closest comparison to Stormbreath and Sarkhan that we’ve seen in the past. Below is the chart noting its progress from Oct 2012 through Jan of 2013.

Notice that December is the month that the card started seeing a price increase, and it finally spiked in the middle of December to $40. Stormbreath and Sarkhan will not follow a similar pattern because they are from the fall sets, which means that more packs were opened due to drafting and higher print runs. Since Hellkite was in a core set the price increase was more pronounced based on demand.

What we can conclude from the graph is that around the middle of December, the point we’re at now, is when cards are going to start spiking for Standard play going into next year. Yet Strombreath already experienced a spike and decline in October from $25 to the current price.

What happened?

Well, players were picking up their copies due to the hype of Mardu as deck. Then, since the clans are generally well balanced, stores weren’t selling as many after the new Khans Standard hype and had to lower the price. This trend isn’t something we’ve seen before which is why I’m interested in tracking Strombreath’s price over the next few months. Will one clan become more dominant and make this card better?

Final Thoughts

Based on the current price trend, Stormbreath appears to be in a lull and continuing downward. It hasn’t reach its lowest point again yet which means that it could just as well swing back up if more players find it powerful in Standard. Fate Reforged could make or break this dragon.

Sarkhan, on the other hand, feels like the safer long term bet for me. If they don’t create another dragon-type card like Sarkhan or Stormbreath in the next few blocks then he will be the go-to card for you five casting cost hasty beats. Being a planeswalker also makes him safer from huge price swings like other mythics that tend to be more flash-in-the-pan.

In summary, Sarkhan feels like the longer term safe bet for Standard while Stormbreath has the highest chance to spike from Theros being out of print and its protection from white which can help it against the white clan decks that have dominating Standard. If the right help is given to red decks in Fate Reforged, expect to see more of Stormbreath after January of next year. It already spiked based on a format shakeup and could just as easily spike again.

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By: Jared Yost

For the Modern fans among us, I feel like it’s time to give some serious thought to the upcoming Modern Masters II now that Khans has been out for a few months. Gathering inspiration from some of the awesome deck’s I’ve been seeing last week at the Magic World Championships, I’ve decided to see what Modern looks like now that Khans has been in the format for several months. Knowing where the format is heading will be important in determining what cards have the highest chance of being in MM2.

Modern Masters Two will not only reduce prices, thereby allowing newer players to more easily enter the format, but it will also provide us with opportunities for picking up previously expensive casual and Commander cards that just happened to be included in the set because someone at Wizards R&D really liked them. Thinking about them now will give us plenty of time to consider whether or not we would like to trade them or buylist them for other potential value cards.

Current Day Values

Let’s see what the most current price swings for cards over the last week have been in Modern according to MTGPrice’s 50 Biggest Gainers of the Week.

Card Name	Set	Price	Gain
Chalice of the Void	Modern Masters	$10.95	4.41
Thoughtseize	Lorwyn	$36.10	3.6
Chalice of the Void	Mirrodin	$9.46	1.98
Brimaz, King of Oreskos	Born of the Gods	$30.70	1.81
Sliver Legion	Future Sight	$49.89	1.65
Tarmogoyf	Modern Masters	$196.95	0.96
Fatestitcher	Shards of Alara	$1.25	0.95
Arid Mesa	Zendikar	$31.26	0.93
Liliana of the Veil	Innistrad	$57.51	0.88
Phyrexian Obliterator	New Phyrexia	$29.54	0.77
Eldrazi Monument	Zendikar	$9.54	0.69
Infernal Tutor	Dissension	$13.83	0.67
Minamo, School at Water's Edge	Champions of Kamigawa	$11.36	0.64
Dark Confidant	Modern Masters	$86.82	0.63
Flooded Strand	Khans of Tarkir	$17.58	0.59
Sorin Markov	Zendikar	$15.67	0.58
Quicksilver Amulet	M12	$7.74	0.57
Phantasmal Image	M12	$7.85	0.56
Dark Confidant	Ravnica	$85.15	0.55
Rhys the Redeemed	Shadowmoor	$17.54	0.55
AEther Vial	Darksteel	$23.36	0.54
Tamiyo, the Moon Sage	Avacyn Restored	$14.02	0.53
Whip of Erebos	Theros	$3.02	0.53
Painter's Servant	Shadowmoor	$10.49	0.51
Glimpse of Nature	Champions of Kamigawa	$29.39	0.5
Sorin Markov	M12	$14.58	0.47
Tezzeret the Seeker	Shards of Alara	$14.82	0.47
Furyborn Hellkite	M12	$2.99	0.46
Cascade Bluffs	Eventide	$24.39	0.46
Extraplanar Lens	Mirrodin	$10.00	0.44
Smash to Smithereens	Shadowmoor	$4.18	0.43
Mox Opal	Scars of Mirrodin	$56.30	0.42
Akroma's Memorial	M13	$9.45	0.41
Ensnaring Bridge	8th Edition	$21.05	0.41
Glimpse the Unthinkable	Ravnica	$25.02	0.41
Scalding Tarn	Zendikar	$48.56	0.41
Sword of Fire and Ice	Darksteel	$40.78	0.41
Deathbringer Liege	Eventide	$12.35	0.4
Wooded Foothills	Khans of Tarkir	$11.81	0.4
Flooded Grove	Eventide	$23.43	0.4
Steam Vents	Guildpact	$15.79	0.39
Razorfoot Grifin	M10	$0.39	0.39
City of Brass	Modern Masters	$4.02	0.39
Hero of Iroas	Born of the Gods	$2.55	0.39
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn	Rise of the Eldrazi	$55.53	0.39
Elvish Piper	9th Edition	$8.14	0.38
Glen Elendra Archmage	Eventide	$6.75	0.38
Voidslime	Dissension	$7.68	0.38
Garruk Wildspeaker	Lorwyn	$9.25	0.37
Ajani, Mentor of Heroes	Journey Into Nyx	$19.77	0.36

Chalice of the Void is the clear winner. Treasure Cruise has arguably done the most damage in Modern than any other format. For now though, many players are fighting through all the TC decks with their cheap cantrips by maindecking or sideboarding Chalice of the Void. Chalice for one charge counter stops a large majority of the spells and will slow them down considerably.

I think the boat has passed on Chalice of the Void for now due to the recent spike. It has spiked to $15 TCG Median and will be sitting there for quite some time – at least until Treasure Cruise is banned. (maybe?)

Another notable high up on the list is Phyrexian Obliterator, which seems to still be hovering around the $30 threshold. It spiked to $30 back in January of this year and hasn’t moved since then. It is played in Modern but isn’t a staple of the format like Tarmogoyf or Dark Confidant. This leads me to believe that the majority of its demand comes from the casual crowd. Casuals love the effect of this horror which makes it seem like a good pickup. The price could easily spike again January of 2015 since it hasn’t moved for a year.

Now that we know which cards seem to be trending upwards in value, let’s take a look at the current metagame and most played cards.

Current Metagame and Most Played Cards

The MTGTop8 recorded metagame over the last two months includes the following: 

Aggro	#
UR Aggro	72
Red Deck Wins	33
Affinity	25
Hatebear	13
Aura Hexproof	12
Zoo	11
Merfolk	8
Junk	8
RUG Aggro	5
Jund	3
Boremandos	2
Loam	2
Tokens	1
Other – Aggro	1
Control
UWx Midrange	12
UrzaTron	10
Valakut	6
Martyr Life	5
Blue Moon	5
UW Control	4
Gift Control	2
The Rock	1
Faeries	1
Other – Control	6
Combo
Birthing Pod	38
Scapeshift	25
Twin Exarch	16
Bloom Titan	7
Jeskai Ascendancy	7
UR Storm	5
Ad Nauseam	4
Infect	2
Living End	1
Instant Reanimator	1
Other – Combo	1

 

UR Aggro has become the most dominant deck in the format, representing 20% of the Top 8 appearances. UWx is still the most popular control deck and Birthing Pod is still the most popular combo deck through Khans.

Scapeshift has started outpacing Twin Exarch lists as a favorite combo choice since it is much harder to disrupt land drops than creatures in order to execute your instant-win combo. Jeskai Ascendency has become a successful deck in Modern but it is not quite as dominant as everyone thought it would become.

One deck that is falling out of favor is UrzaTron, due to the speed of the UR Aggro decks in the format. Martyr Life seems to be a deck that is taking its place since gaining a huge amount of life in addition will help outpace all of the UR and Burn decks floating around.

Another deck falling out of favor is Living End. With only one Top 8 placement in the last two months, it appears that Living End is falling out of favor for the faster combo decks.

What Does It All Mean?

After reviewing both MTGPrice’s 50 Biggest Gainers of the Week and the MTG Top 8 results over the last two months, I would like to make some observations about several of the cards identified in the first section that I think have a surprising price. In addition, I would like to address the more expensive parts of the decks in the MTG Top 8 results that did not appear in the recently trending cards. My thoughts pertain to the non-foil version of the card for all cases. 

Card	MM2 Possible Inclusion?	Reasoning	Price Thoughts
Chalice of the Void	No	Reprint in first MM	Price is inflated due to Treasure Cruise metagame shift. A banning of TC will make Chalice drop again. If you didn’t get in before the spike, then you missed the boat for profit. Only pickup now if you plan on playing Modern in the near future.
Phyrexian Obliterator	Yes	Casual favorite, Some Modern play	Expensive, but could spike again before MM2. Pick up your copies before January if you plan on playing with Obliterator in the near future – otherwise wait to see if it is in MM2.
Arid Mesa (and other ZEN fetchlands)	Yes	Modern staple, no reprint yet.	The prices of the ZEN fetches have dropped considerably upon Khans fetches being released. They will drop even more if a MM2 reprint happens. I would wait on picking up ZEN fetches unless you need them right away.
Aether Vial	No	Reprint in first MM	Aether Vial seems to be trending upwards yet does receive a reprint every now and then. I think Vial will continue to trend upwards until the next reprint, whenever that may come.
Cascade Bluffs (and other SHM filter lands)	No	As a set of ten two-color filter lands, this cycle would be better off reprinted across another block like the shocklands were reprinted in RTR block.	Prices for these lands are waaaaay overinflated. Once these are reprinted they are going to bottom out hard. I would not pick up copies of these at all unless you need them for a deck.
Smash to Smithereens	Yes	Common, easy to include and is used heavily in Modern against affinity and other artifact based decks.	Price will drop hard once the card is reprinted and it doesn’t have much room to move up. Get rid of any extra copies you have.
Mox Opal	Yes	Affinity staple.	Price will drop, but not considerably. Still be wary of holding onto Mox Opals through next summer.
Ensnaring Bridge	Yes	Hard to find. Played in Commander, Modern, and Legacy. Casuals also love this card.	Price will drop with a reprint. However, in the long run the price will go up over time until the next reprint. Wait for the bottom and then pick them up.
Steam Vents (and other RTR / GTC shocklands)	No	Just reprinted in recent block. Wizards even added extras to the market by including them in Dragon’s Maze.	Pick up shocklands now before their price starts creeping back up again once they become harder to find. I would target blue lands especially.
Minamo, School at Water’s Edge	No	Kamigawa legendary lands are sometimes seen in Modern (Eiganjo is one example) but are played a ton in Commander. I’d expect these lands in a Commander product.	Not something I would look to pick up. The card is not going to $20+ anytime soon and if reprinted next year will drop like a rock.
Sorin Markov	No	Two printings already, mainly just a casual card.	Sorin is at $15 and climbing. I don’t think he will be reprinted in MM2 but could definitely be reprinted in a Commander or casual supplementary product.
Quicksilver Amulet	No	Two printings already, mainly just a casual card.	Similar to Sorin, could easily be put in a supplementary product and is not doubling up any time soon.
Rhys the Redeemed	Yes	Only one printing and lots of casual love.	$18 is very high for Rhys. He is worth almost as much as Doubling Season, which is saying something. The price is propped up by scarcity alone. One reprint will crash it.
Extraplanar Lens	Yes	Only one printing and lots of casual love.	I would expect Wizards to skip EL over other cards for MM2 but this could be a last minute include since they did not include it in the recent C14 decks. Price will crash if a reprint happens.
Akroma’s Memorial	No	Two printings already, mainly a casual card.	Akroma’s Memorial will keep rising over time until the next reprint. I don’t think this reprint will be in MM2.
Glimpse the Unthinkable	Yes	Popular casual card with some Modern appeal for a mill deck. Only one printing.	Glimpse is a card that a ton of players love that has yet to see a reprint. MM2 is a great place for it. Price will crash when this happens since it is mainly just a casual card.
Deathbringer Liege	No	Popular casual card yet Wizards has found ways outside of MM sets to reprint these (C13, Planechase 2012, etc.)	Lords are popular casual cards but I don’t see this one being printed in a MM set for the reasons I stated. The price will go up over time for this liege without a reprint, though I do expect a commander release to contain this or another liege next year.
Elvish Piper	No	Six reprints already. Can find another place outside MM set.	Price will continue to go up until the next reprint. Last reprint was 10th edition, so it has been quite a while since Piper has had a reprint. Maybe the next commander set?
Voidslime	Yes	Only one regular reprinting (Champs was full art). Like Glimpse the Unthinkable its a popular casual card, even if not really played in Modern.	I don’t think this card has much room to grow. Only casually popular. If included in Modern Masters the price will drop.
Young PyromancerSerum VisionsGitaxian Probe Forked Bolt Inquisition of Kozilek Remand Spell Pierce	Yes	I’m including all these cards in the same category because I feel that they are uncommons and commons that could easily get reprinted. They are overvalued in price due to being scarce.	Though not all of these uncommons / commons could be printed, I would expect a large majority of them to be on the list for MM2. I will be getting rid of any extra copies of these I have before next summer (except maybe Young Pyromancer because that is one hot uncommon!).
Goblin Guide	Yes	Hugely popular card, both casually and in Modern.	Guide will drop significantly if printed in MM2. Will continue to increase in price until reprint is announced.
Eidolon of the Great Revel	No	Standard legal card, no reason.	They could still include Eidolon in an event deck or other supplementary product. The price will continue to go up slowly until then.
Noble Hierarch	Yes	Very costly pricewise. Important piece of mana fixing and tempo in Modern and Legacy. High probability of being in MM2.	Hierarch doesn’t have much room to grow, only because most are speculating a reprint in MM2. I would trade away any extra copies you have because the risk is far greater holding.
Daybreak CoronetAven Mindcensor	Yes	Random future sight rare with one printing that is amazing in Modern. Commander also likes this card.	Like Hierarch, Daybreak Coronet would not be worth nearly as much if not for being in an older, less printed set. Aven Mindcensor is in the same camp.
Geist of Saint Traft	Yes	Popular casual, Commander, and Modern card.	I think Geist has a fair chance of being reprinted as a mythic in MM2, especially if Treasure Cruise is not banned. Very powerful, efficient beater.
Snapcaster Mage	Yes	Multi-format all star with only one printing.	Like Goyf and Bob, Snappy will probably be a mythic in MM2 to not kill the price. Should stabilize Snapcaster if this happens.
Restoration Angel	Yes	Efficient Modern beater, casual fan favorite being an Angel.	Resto-Angel has a decent chance of being in MM2. If not MM2, then certainly a commander product in the future.
Karn Liberated Grove of the Burnwillows	Yes	Karn is way pricy for a planeswalker, only due to being in NPH. Grove is similarly expensive though played in more than one Modern deck. Both need another reprint to reduce prices.	Both cards will continue to increase in price, but not substantially. Again, risk is way too high to hold extra copies.
Mythic Eldrazi (Emrakul, Kozilek, Ulamog)	Yes?	MM2 is a great place for the Eldrazi as a mythic rare cycle. Also, they are casual favorites like many cards on this list.	Slowly going up, but reprint fear will keep prices stabilized for some time.
Ranger of EosSerra Ascendant	Yes	Hard to find, only one printing.	Slowly going up, but reprint fear will keep prices stabilized for some time.
Linvala, Keeper of Silence	Yes	Hard to find, only one printing.	Slowly going up, but reprint fear will keep prices stabilized for some time.
Birthing Pod	Yes	Modern staple	Slowly going up, but reprint fear will keep prices stabilized for some time.
Splinter Twin	Yes	Modern staple	Slowly going up, but reprint fear will keep prices stabilized for some time.
Azusa, Lost but Seeking	Yes	Hard to find, only one printing.	Slowly going up, but reprint fear will keep prices stabilized for some time.

 

These are my brief thoughts on various cards for inclusion in MM2. Do you think I’ve missed anything important for this list? What curveballs do you think Wizards will throw into MM2? (Remember Ryusei, the Falling Star and other CHK dragon’s in the first MM? Eww.) What types of mechanic themes do you think the set will have?

Regardless of how my predictions turn out, I think that Modern Masters II will be a fun set!

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