Let’s Play Spike or Hype II

August 25, 2014 Jared Yost

It’s that time again folks! It seems we are finally moving away from the summer lulls. Speculators, vendors, and all those in between are starting to notice cards that they believe are undervalued. The evidence as usual is the upward trend in price and downward trend in inventory on TCGPlayer and other large vendor websites for certain cards. The question is though – is it hype or is it a spike?

I’ll identify some cards I have noticed so far and give my justification one way or another. We’ve seen this song and dance in the past so hopefully some cards will be much more clear cut than others.

I’ll also mention some other cards in the latter half of this article that people seem to be talking about online. These aren’t cards that are going to move significantly in price one way or another overnight but I thought I would address them since various sources have been discussing them.

Biggest Movers

Maralen of the Mornsong

On Friday of last week a buy out was executed on Maralen. Why, you ask? I’m asking myself the same question. I’m guessing this acquisition was based on the fact that she is a legendary creature from a small opened set, without a reprint in a supplementary product, and is the general of a pretty infamous Commander deck based on around Tendrils of Agony. That’s right folks, if you ever wanted to play ANT in Commander and be “that guy” then this general is perfect for you.

The problem is, I don’t think Commander players are very thrilled with losing on potentially turn two or three on a regular basis. Of course, if you have a very cutthroat Commander group then I can see this being the case – your metagame will just pack a bunch of targeted discard or other outlets. Yet to bring this kind of a deck to a Commander group that doesn’t play single person targeted discard or a ton of cheap counterspells? That’s just plain rude.

Another issue is that this card sees no competitive play. At all. Letting your opponent Grim Tutor during their upkeep seems bad. I know the argument “dies to removal” is a pretty bland argument against using a card but in this case it makes sense especially since you can tutor up any removal spell you want to get rid of it.

All in all, stay far away from non-foil versions of this card until the hype dies down. This isn’t going to be doing anything in Modern, at least not yet. They would have to print something similar to Mindlock Orb that is easy to synergize with Maralen.

Foils on the other hand could be profitable if you can get them for the right price. Being a cutthroat general is actually a bonus for competitive Commander staples since these players are the types of folks that like to foil out their decks. As of Friday, there were only two foils listed at $40 and $50 on TCGPlayer. I don’t think this is too far off from the real foil value and it can only gain over time. If you can find foils close to $30 I think that could be a pretty good deal.

Goblin Guide (and the GP Promo too!)

So much for Burn being a cheap option for Modern, eh? Guess it was good while it lasted. He has been slowly trending upwards over the past few months and as of last week is now hovering around $24.

One major factor for this increase is the Modern viability of the card. Burn is a deck many players favor for getting introduced to the Modern format. This way you can play Modern but also use the prize winnings to slowly work your way up to decks like Pod, Jund, and UWR control that have lots of shocklands and fetchlands and are decks that have better matchups against a wider range of the field.

However, I also think that the SCG Legacy Invitational in Somerset that is coming up at the end of August has something to do with the recent increase. I think that vendors are predicting that more players are going to want to start getting into Legacy especially with the Legacy GP coming up in November. Burn and and UR delver currently make up about 6% of the Legacy metagame. This is significant for a format like Legacy which tends to have 15+ solid Tier 1 decks that have a decent shot of taking down a tournament or making Top 8. Vendors noticed this and acted accordingly, buying up any copies of Goblin Guide they could since June and and reselling them at higher prices until now.

There were good reasons for this spike and in a way it could be predicted based on the trend from the previous few months if you happened to notice it. I’m not sure if it was on player’s radars though because there is also a GP promo (which also spiked) and Goblin Guide was reprinted in a Mirrodin Besieged event deck with two copies per deck! There are plenty of copies out there but demand has now come to outpace supply. This card has corrected in price and will not be moving without another reprint for some time.

Goblin Rabblemaster

Speaking of goblins, at Pro Tour M15 Rabblemaster was the talk of the town. It spurned enough interest from players and vendors alike to make it jump from around $1 retail to $4 retail where is still hovers on TCGPlayer.

I think there is both hype and demand factors for the spike. He didn’t get anyone into the Top 8 of the Pro Tour but it did get two people into the Top 32. Clearly there is potential in him being played in aggressive red decks upon rotation of Return to Ravnica block. The question now is can it stay at $4 or possibly even go higher in the fall? I’m not sure if the buy in now is going to enable you to make any significant profits in the future. He would need to go up to $8+ in the future to see any type of net profit and I’m not willing to take that risk. Pick them up if you plan to play them however don’t expect to make killer profits off this guy at $4.

Only if his price drops down going into September to $2 or lower would I look to buy in. I think he will see a fair amount of play after rotation. Just keep in mind that the shelf life is usually pretty short on these highly aggressive cards so I would look to get out once the control decks become established.

Dack Fayden FOIL

While the non-foil versions of Dack have dropped significantly since the release of Conspiracy, from the crazy preorder prices of $50+ to the now average $19 on TCGPlayer, his foil version on the other hand is a completely different story. MTGPrice is still lagging a bit on the new foil price with no clear listings from any of the vendors so I will provide this screenshot from TCGPlayer.

Only three foil listings at $350 and $450 respectively! That is a huge jump in foil price in only just a few months from the Conspiracy set release. For a while, you could have gotten yourself a nice shiny Dack for around $130. Looks like that turned out to be a bargain.

Let’s check out eBay completed listings to make sure I’m not missing anything:

A Japanese foil Dack sold for $500 (to be expected) but other than this outlier the rest have been ending around the $165-$175 range on average. Once lucky guy got one for $140. Even though these are completed listings, many of the BIN’s on eBay are being listed at $350+. I don’t believe there was a particular run on foil Dack and that this is actual demand yet there is still some hype to the price.

He has real eternal format playability especially in Vintage where foiling out your deck is the norm for many players. He hasn’t made an impact in Legacy yet the potential is always there. He is a Cube instaclude and a Commander powerhouse. He is even more relevant in Commander now that Wizards is pushing Planeswalkers as generals. Eventually, enough people will house rule walkers as generals and Dack would make a sweet general. Having a foil Dack as your general is also highly desirable for many Commander players.

Now that the price has reached such lofty heights I don’t think it is going to move all that much. I really don’t know what the effect of more Conspiracy being opened is going to have on his foil – I was clearly wrong in my Conspiracy foil analysis* because the demand for foil copies is there and it is apparently very strong for those that want him now without having to bid on eBay. However, should his foil be worth almost as much as a Moat? Probably not.

If you can negotiate a good price on a foil I would pick it up but otherwise don’t buy into the current hype. I think there is volatility to the foil price because players won’t be happy seeing his foil has gone over $300 retail and this could force vendors to trend the price downward. He also has a good chance of seeing a judge foil printing once Wizards catches wind of the price, which in turn will increase the amount of foil copies on the market. These two factors make me think this new price is somewhat driven by hype and a low market supply. Going forward, I’m still going to keep in mind that there is justification for a higher price than before the spike (~$130) yet the current price feels too high to me.

*Not that this absolves me however I provided my comments on foil Dack before the C15 decks were revealed featuring Teferi as a planeswalker general. This could be another huge factor driving the foil price in addition to the other factors I mentioned.

Squelch

This card has spiked due to Modern demand. It has gone from around $0.30 to $3.50. Do not buy in at this point, there is no profit to be made because it will be hard for this card to sustain a price of $7 or higher for a significant length of time without being included in more decks than it is currently featured in if you do buy at $3-$4. There is also the potential reprint to consider, though the card is so odd they would have to fit it into a MM2 set or similar. If you have any copies you will be able to trade them well though price isn’t moving from $3.50 for quite some time.

Great Whale

Is this the cheap man’s Palinchron? It’s gone from bulk status to $3 over the past two weeks or so. I think for $6 more you could have yourself a nice Palinchron and not have to worry about using other cards outside of Caged Sun (or similar) in order to generate infinite mana.

I don’t really see a reason why this card is now $3. It’s played in… Commander, maybe? It is on the reserve list so there is that. Other than these two factors, which aren’t all that convincing, there isn’t a ton going for this card. Stay away, far away at this point.

Other Cards

I’ve also thought about the prices of some other cards and where they are going in the future. I’m taking into account Standard cards, regularly played eternal cards that will experience reprints, and casual favorites.

Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver

Ashiok has been slowly trending upwards since his low of $5. This is a casual favorite that seems to sell well and retain a decent price. If you can grab any copies from $7-$8 trade I don’t think you can go wrong. He will always command decent casual appeal for being a mill walker and he could also see Standard play in the future.

Keranos, God of Storms

Many eternal players in Modern and Legacy seem to be including him in lists for UWR in Modern and UWr Miracles in Legacy. I don’t think you can go wrong with foil copies here as they stand to gain the most in the long run. Non-foils could also be a good target if you can trade for them at $6-$7 or pick them up for $5 cash.

Griselbrand & Lightning Helix

Both Griselbrand and Lightning Helix have had reprints announced. Griselbrand is scheduled to be the next GP Promo and Lightning Helix is being reprinted in the next duel deck Speed vs. Cunning.

Griselbrand has already seen a price slump due to this announcement and I unfortunately don’t think his price is going to go anywhere in a while. Sneak and Show seems to be a Legacy deck that comes and goes these days so I don’t think you can reliably rely on the deck to influence his price much at this point (unless it wins the Legacy GP in November). The buy in price is too high and the gains won’t be that significant over the next several months.

Lightning Helix on the other hand isn’t really going to be changing price much, if it all. Is is a very popular uncommon and is used quite heavily in Modern, much more than Griselbrand is used in Legacy. Don’t expect a price drop but also don’t look to acquire more. This reprint is only going to stabilize the current price.

Command Tower

Command Tower is around $1 now. It used to be $5 before the C14 reprint yet now that we have mono colored Commander decks coming up Command Tower will not be seeing a reprint this year. $1 is a good buy in price, cash or trade – it will never go below a $1 due to casual appeal and I believe it can only go up from here over the next year. This is definitely a card that needs to be offloaded at the opportune moment since the imminent reprint here is pretty obvious for future Commander products. Next spring though? Wouldn’t be surprised if this was $2 or more. A risk here is that they might be very hard to move unless your area has players that like to build multiple Commander decks.

Sands of Delirium

I’ve been seeing some chatter about this card online and it centers around the casual appeal of the card. This card is the upgraded version of Millstone because the more mana you have the more you can mill your opponent. I honestly think that Ashiok is a much better card and I would be hard pressed to buy Sands over Consuming Aberration. However, for $0.50 it seems like a pretty low buy in point. Could this break $2 or $3? It’s from a core set, which means there are fewer copies of it out there then rares from bigger sets like Return to Ravnica or Theros. If you can get these as bulk throw in’s for trades I would certainly consider it. I would say the only reason Millstone is a bulk rare now is because they reprinted it as an uncommon in M14. Before that, I was seeing Millstone sold for $0.50 with regularity. Sands of Delirium seems like a fine pick up if you can get them for $0.50 or cheaper for future gains.

Casual Fridays

Commander 2014 Preparation

August 22, 2014 Cliff Daigle 2 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

Yes, I’m thinking a lot about a set of decks that aren’t going to be available until November.

I’m of two minds about this set.

From a playing and flavor perspective, I’m stoked beyond words. I’m hoping to see Teferi, Serra, Freyalise, Jaya Ballard, and Leshrac as overpowered Planeswalkers and eventual judge foils. (There’s going to have to be a foil version somehow. They know that we want a foil to be our Commander!)

From a financial standpoint, I don’t think there will be a lot of immediate opportunity here. The first Commander set was put together and printed when the player base was significantly smaller, and while sealed product is at a premium, there aren’t many standalone stars.

Wizards has demonstrated this past year that if the preconstructed decks are bought in disproportionate amounts, then they will print disproportionate amounts. True-Name Nemesis is the case study. It started out at $50, as befits a powerful blue creature in Legacy in a limited printing. It was impacting the sale of Commander decks, as Mind Seize couldn’t stay on shelves.

The company turned around and started printing and sending out two Mind Seize per case instead of just one, and the demand appears to have been met, as TNN is down to $25, a price at which it’s not cost-effective to hunt for the deck.

The decks still carry a lot of value in the singles, but without the big-ticket item to immediately sell via buylist (and the rest of the deck doesn’t buylist well) things are in a reasonable state.

The reprinting policy is extremely relevant to us. If one of the five mono-color decks blows up this winter, the price will not hold. There’s a chance that if True-Name Nemesis isn’t reprinted, it might creep up again (more on that in a second) but the initial demand was met through adding additional supply.

Here is the behavior you’ll need to have for the five decks in November: Buy it soon, sell it fast, don’t try to make too much for too long.

The decks being mono-color offers the opportunity for many reprints of cards that could use it. I would expect a combination of very old and semi-old cards to go with the brand-new ones. I think that Wizards will use these products as a way to increase supply of some cards. If these cards are reprinted, there will be a drop in value, much like with the Commander 2013 cards.

In some cases, the price of a card will be unaffected by a reprint, or scarcity will keep a higher price. Hua Tuo, Honored Physician is an example. Hua Tao did not have a high price due to the ability, but the scarcity of the set. The same card in Commander 2013 is worth a dollar, and the original lost about $40 in value.

In case I haven’t made it clear: I don’t think there is much long-term value to be gained by trading or buying into expensive cards that can be reprinted in the next year. The combination of MM2 in May and these Commander decks creates too much uncertainty for my taste. Better to focus speculation energy and money on Standard cards. I mentioned a few reprint candidates two weeks ago, and here are some more. If you have any of these in quantity, I strongly urge you to cash them out or trade them away.

Linvala, Keeper of Silence – This angel is around $50, and is overdue for a reprint. Her ability is very relevant in keeping down the Splinter Twin decks of Modern, and is also great in dealing with the many utility abilities of Commander. This angel and Avacyn are locks in my mind to be in this set or Modern Masters 2. There’s a good chance that this deck has a tribal Angel feel, which would open up cards like Akroma, Angel of Wrath or Iona, Shield of Emeria as well.

Aven Mindcensor – One of the more expensive uncommons in Modern, a fresh injection of copies would tank the price by half or more.

Bloodghast – This card would work exceptionally well with the spoiled Ghoulcaller Gisa, with repeated sacrifices. I can see Gravecrawler being an easy include for the same reason.

Death Baron – Gisa’s tokens are Zombies. Making them better and deadly is very strong.

Nirkana Revenant – In an EDH deck with around 30 swamps, this is just ridiculous. Doubling mana is a favorite thing in casual formats, and using that mana immediately is a real beating.

Phyrexian Obliterator – It increased in price twice, is more than $35, and will never be easier to cast than in a mono-black deck.

Consecrated Sphinx – In a multiplayer game, this is capable of taking over. An opponent getting a copy means that two players can draw their entire deck!

Kira, Great Glass-Spinner – I like the benefit and drawback to this ability. You’ll have to pay twice to equip something, or use a different ability.

Spell Crumple – In case you weren’t aware, this is a $6 uncommon that was a two-of in one of the original Commander 2011 decks. A reprint will cause this price to plummet.

Azusa, Lost but Seeking – Yup, she’s more than $20. Watch out, because it’ll go much, much lower when she’s printed again.

Craterhoof Behemoth – A choice finisher in token or swarm decks, this seems like a for-sure include in the mono-green deck.

Oracle of Mul Daya – Oracle’s price was never this high when she was in Standard. Look at what this offers, and then Courser of Kruphix. Adding life and toughness while lowering mana cost does a lot for the card!

Regal Force – Oh, it feels good resolving this and drawing ten or more cards. It’s appropriately expensive.

Vigor – I realize that this is a card that dies to targeted and mass removal, but it’s really awesome until it gets killed. It has a price that reflects how popular it is despite being so easy to kill.

Dragonmaster Outcast – Oh, I hope this is in Khans of Tarkir block. If not, this and Kargan Dragonlord are strong candidates for the mono-red Commander deck.

Magus of the Moon – A Modern card that can be its own answer (my Hallowed Fountain can now cast Lightning Bolt!) this represents a very strong ability, and a card that would go lower when reprinted.

I don’t think that all of these are going to be in Commander 2014. I think there’s a good chance of them being printed in that set (or Modern Masters 2) and these are cards I don’t want to have in stock when their price tanks.

City of Traders

An Open Letter

August 20, 2014 Travis Allen 8 Comments

By: Travis Allen

Did you ever tell a family member – any family member at all – that you were at all interested in art of some sort when you were younger? Painting or drawing perhaps? It’s pretty common for kids to be drawn to art early on, even if very few stick with it. It’s a creative outlet and a way to produce a lasting piece of work that they can feel good about days or weeks later.

If you ever mentioned enjoying artwork to an aunt, an uncle, or a grandparent, you know what came next for the following ten years. Art supplies. Every single year. Except they were crummy and unusable every single time. It’s sort of a catch-22. Anyone willing to spend enough money on you to buy you high quality pens or paint supplies would know you well enough that they would know better than to waste their money that way. And yet like clockwork, every Birthday and Christmas, some ten dollar set of markers would show up on the doorstep for you to toss into a box with other unused gifts while you went back to playing Super Nintendo.

While we may have considered this a complete loss of value when we were younger, time has provided us a perspective on the situation a bit more sympathetic with those relatives. To their credit, they were using their limited knowledge of our passing whims as best as they could to provide gifts they thought would be appreciated. If you’re somehow still bitter about this, ask yourself what you really know of the passions of your nieces and nephews, or hell, even your siblings. Providing someone with a meaningful gift that they will truly appreciate is damn difficult, even for those you are closest to.

In order to see what this has to do with us, just replace the word “art” with “Magic” and “paintbrushes” with “Magic cards.” When you’re a child, getting booster packs of cards is thrilling and exciting. I fondly remember cherishing every booster pack of X-Men trading cards I received back then, and getting an entire sealed box for my birthday is one of the few memories I have of early birthday gifts. These days however, gifts including Magic cards are far less special. The issue is that there’s no longer mystery or excitement in the gift of Magic cards. The veil has been pulled back, and as you sit there reading this article, you’re fully capable of going out and purchasing them for yourself. In the next ten minutes you could have any Magic card or sealed product you wish rushing towards your door. It may not be a financially prudent decision, of course, but still, the option is available to you. It’s sort of like ice cream cake. The age at which you can just go buy an ice cream cake for no reason whatsoever except that you want to eat one is exactly the age when you realize it is a terrible idea to do so.

And so we find ourselves the recipients of Intro Decks and booster packs from last year’s core set from well meaning relatives who know little more of our hobbies other than “that card game.” We say thank you, hug the relative, and tell them that it’s so great they provided such a thoughtful gift. Meanwhile you’re staring at that Celestial Archon in the front of the packaging wondering if Target will give you store credit for the intro deck without a receipt.

We feel bad. We really do. They obviously are trying. They mean well. They just…don’t quite get it. It’s like listening to your mom try and describe what you do for a living. How can you be upset when they mean well? It’s in everyone’s best interest if the Magic gifts cease though. They’ll stop spending money on something that’s going to be immediately returned or collect dust in a closet, and you won’t have to feign appreciation for something that is entirely wasted on you. That way you can all get back to giving and receiving the best of gifts: socks. (That’s not a joke).

Today I provide you with a tool. A letter. It is an open letter to friends and family that attempts to gently persuade them that their love can be better channeled. If you’re the non-confrontational (read: passive aggressive) type, just link it on your Facebook wall. For a more direct route, print it out and stick it in the envelope with a thank you card you most certainly haven’t already sent for the last gift they gave you. I’ve provided multiple selections on certain sentences to provide for the most personal touch possible. Feel free to edit and tweak as necessary.

Dear [Friend/Aunt/Uncle/Grandma/Parole Officer],

I hope this letter finds you well. I know we haven’t spoken in awhile, but my [mother/father/dog] tells me you are doing [great/terribly/cocaine]. That is [wonderful/a shame] to hear. I’d ask you what the weather is like there in ___________, but given that I have internet access, it feels a bit silly to ask. It’s funny how the medium of communication dictates how much and what is acceptable small talk.

My reason for sending this letter today is a tad delicate. I should preface the content with sincere thanks for all you have provided me over the years as a loving [relative/friend/parole officer]. I cherish the time we have spent together in the past and look forward to many more lovely [hours/outstanding arrest warrants] in the future.

This past [birthday/Christmas/President’s Day/Tuesday] you gave to me a heartfelt gift that included Magic: The Gathering cards. I was touched to see that you cared enough to purchase a meaningful, personal gift for me. Your love and affection shone brilliantly through your action.

It is this particular gift that I wish to speak about today. While the meaning and thought behind the gift were fully and truly appreciated, the actual content did not quite achieve the [excitement/sexual arousal] you may have hoped it would.

Magic cards behave as a commodity, just as gas, silver, and corn do. While silver and gold [and corn] make for some truly remarkable gifts, a simple few ounces of gold without form or function makes for a much less special treat. It is unlikely you would give someone gasoline as a gift, and Magic cards are not much different. Commodities make the world go round, but any particular instance of such is not particularly special or endearing.

One piece of silver lacks distinction from another until it has been crafted into a piece of jewelry. Similarly, there is nothing unique about this Magic card compared to another of the same name. Nothing exists to distinguish it as my Magic card. The result is that cards change hands often, and a card gifted today could be traded away to peers for something more immediately useful only days later. Furthermore, market shifts can and do happen in the world of Magic just as they do on the real commodities markets. A box of cards you spend $10 on today may be worth less than half of that by the time I actually receive it. The only person who wins on that day is the retailer.

This is not to say you should never purchase any Magic cards ever again. A single booster pack, retail $3-$4, is a pleasing trinket or accessory to another package. (Be sure to ask the retailer for the most recent set!) If you travel abroad, foreign booster packs of cards are much appreciated, not only due to their exotic nature, but as a token of a journey you wish to share. (Russian and Japanese especially so!) In general though, I ask for both our sakes that you mostly refrain from choosing Magic cards as gifts. While I know full well that you mean only the best, at the end of the day they lack the ability to strengthen emotional bonds in a way that many other gestures are capable.

My message today is not one of annoyance or complaint, but rather one of honesty and compassion. I look forward to spending many more enjoyable [holidays/nights in jail cells] with you.

[Love/Sincerely/Dictated but not read by],

_____________________________

The Gilded Goblin

Hype Train Standard

August 18, 2014 Jared Yost 2 Comments

By: Jared Yost

Xenagos, the Reveler

By the time this article is published, I predict that it will be hard to find Xenagos, the Reveler for less than $15. I commented on this version of Xengos in my Theros review back in September last year as a passive pickup, which meant that I recognized his power level but realized that it would take a paradigm shift in Standard in order for his abilities to really shine. When I identify passive pickups in my set reviews, I recommend that you pick them up when you have extra cards to trade or when the price becomes low enough that even if they don’t pan out in Standard they will still stabilize in price to due to casual or other demand. Xenagos was close to $7-$8 for a long time in Standard – for the past six months you could have gotten your copies fairly cheap if you picked them up slowly over time.

Usually, when a Standard card is bought out at this particular time in the season there is a good reason. Master of Waves and Thassa, God of the Sea were bought out last year during Pro Tour Theros due to the breakout of the Mono-Blue Devotion deck. Yes, you could have made money on them if you had prestocked your cart on TCGPlayer and then executed the purchase as soon as they saw decent screen time from the live coverage. However, in the long run their prices dropped considerably because more Theros was opened and people were able to pick them up much easier once more copies were in the market. Mono-Blue Devotion turned out to be one of the most dominating decks and yet the prices still went since that time last year.

The hype from Pro Tour Theros was mainly driven by a lack of supply. This is not the case for Xenagos, the Reveler because we’ve been opening Theros for an entire year. The majority of the copies that will exist for the next Standard are already out there. Based on Twitter postings from Friday, there was a rumor that the buyout was coordinated.

Then we had a first hand account of Nick Becvar stating that he decided to buy in on as many Xenagos as he could at GenCon.

Nick is a well respected member of the MTG finance community so when a card catches his eye I tend to pay close attention. By the time of his Twitter post, all of the cheap copies of Xenagos were gone on TCGPlayer and the mid price was about $16. However, I was able to snag a few foil copies that were still lingering around $19 that weren’t updated to reflect the non-foil price. Goes to show that even if you think you may have missed an opportunity, always make sure to check for other versions of the card including foil versions. The window is small but there are sometimes opportunities to get these deals.

The the reason why Xenagos spiked was the coverage he received during Pro Tour M15. He was in two Jund decks that placed in the Top 8 of the tournament, which was the most anticipated tournament of the summer. He received plenty of coverage from live streaming two weeks ago and players have been picking up their copies since then. Once vendors started running low and realized that people weren’t trading the ones they had back in, they readjusted the prices to reflect this demand.

What Else Besides Xenagos Should You Be Watching?

In terms of Standard I would focus on lands and current non-rotating staples. The scrylands are all great options, since the block supplementing Theros standard is a Wedge set. There is plenty of opportunity for any of the lands to be featured in a breakout deck so I wouldn’t focus heavily on any particular land barring Mana Confluence. Mana Confluence is a nice role filler for multicolored aggro decks, so I can see it becoming important in Mardu (RWB) builds in addition to any other Wedge or two color aggro build that pops up and does well during the fall. It is also from Journey Into Nyx, so the 6:2:1 ratio will also have an effect on the price after rotation.

Speaking of aggro, Soldier of the Pantheon is another of my top targets. Ever since the fall set was announced to be Wedge based I started picking up this card en masse. This is a short term play – if the card goes up substantially in price during the fall I will also be looking to get out then. It will have a tougher time sustaining a high price once the control decks become more established.

You should also be stocking up on any extra copies of Thoughtseize and Hero’s Downfall that you can find. These have the highest chance of being the premium black cards of Standard in the fall. I would focus more on Thoughtseize than Downfall, even though it has a higher buy in price. Thoughtseize is an eternal playable that might have a higher chance of the elusive double spike once the newly announced Modern Pro Tour taking place in February 2015 occurs. Downfall is riskier because a better removal spell could be reprinted in Khans.

Elspeth, Sun’s Champion is the strongest white card right now in sheer power. Her nemesis is Scuttling Doom Engine, which Wizards created to help stave off any potential Elspeth domination of Standard. I’m still not sure which card will see more play. I tend to think Scuttling Doom Engine (SCD) since it is both colorless and a rare, which means that it can fit into multiple archetypes that can support it and it will be cheaper for players to acquire initially so more are apt to brew with SCD.

On the other hand, Elspeth is just so strong especially in control builds. Of course, my line of thinking could be completely changed once Khans comes out but for now I tend to favor SCD as the card that will see the biggest gains percentage wise.I feel like Elspeth has peaked somewhat. She costs six mana, which means that players have fewer copies of her in decks, and she is already at around $20. I can’t see her going up much more from there based on an average two copies per deck. I doubt that SCD will reach Thragtusk level of dominance but there always seems to be a rare from a core set that reaches a really high price…

Lastly, I want to mention slivers. Here my advice is to wait until rotation and pick up any foil copies of M14/M15 slivers that seem to be popular. I think this is the best call for the short and long term. Even if there is a breakout sliver deck it will only be around for about another month. I’m going to bide my time, wait for rotation, and then a few months afterwards try to scoop up any popular M14/M15 slivers for value in the long run.

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