Casual Fridays

FTV: Angels

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By: Cliff Daigle

So back when the Commander 2015 preconstructed decks were announced, I thought sure we would get Serra and a deck full of Angels.

Instead we got some equipment and it was disappointing, Containment Priest notwithstanding.

Monday, Wizards announced that this summer’s From the Vault series will be Angels! This is both better and worse than being in a preconstructed deck. Thank goodness we’re no longer getting preview cards in the FTV series, as the slots are just too precious.

Multicolor

So what are the rules for FTV? How can we know what will be in this? The last three sets have been Realms, FTV 20, and Annihilation. So we have to go back to 2011 to find a creature-based set. Since that was from a while ago, and focused on multicolor cards, I’m not treating it as a hard and fast guide, but there’s a few key points.

#1: Increase supply of some hard-to-find cards. This is straight out of Gavin Verhey’s article on FTV: Annihilation last year. This is the category that I’m least sure about, as most of the Portal Angels have already seen a reprint. FTV represents one way to get foil versions of cards that couldn’t be put into a Standard set or a special set (Conspiracy, Modern Masters)

#2: Appeal to the casual and tournament players. This usually means that there will be one valuable card and a few of other semi-pricey ones, and then cards that are almost like filler, but fun filler.

#3: Represent a range of colors and strategies from the past. I love it. This is going to be a primarily white set, as white has nearly all the Angels. So the non-white Angels are going to be a bit more likely.

#4: Be a little surprising. Think Form of the Dragon in FTV: Dragons, or Smokestack in FTV: Annihilation. This is, by far, the most fun to guess about.

Let’s go over some honorable mentions. I feel these could make it in, but they are not my #1 pick for one reason or another.

Razia, Boros Archangel
Fallen Angel
Lightning Angel
Platinum Angel
Angel of the Dire Hour
Gisela, Blade of Goldnight
Luminarch Ascension
Archangel of Strife
Akroma, Angel of Wrath
Archangel of Thune
Angel of Light
Avenging Angel
Blinding Angel
Emeria Angel
Empyrial Archangel
Exalted Angel
Guardian Seraph
Serra Avenger
Wayward Angel
Angel of Despair
Copper-Leaf Angel
Crypt Angel
Linvala, Keeper of Silence
Iona, Shield of Emeria

These cards represent the ‘I wouldn’t be surprised’ tier of Angels. All of these would be worthy inclusions in detailing the history of this iconic tribe. Copper-Leaf Angel is a good candidate for a surprise, but I’d really be shocked if that was in over Platinum Angel. Luminarch Ascension is a hard card to leave out, but it’s a ‘target acquired’ sort of card that if you play it, you’ll be punished all game for it. It’s a bit punishing for casual players, too.

The last two, Linvala and Iona, are a strong hunch on my part. Linvala is rather reprintable, even as a legend. She’s not more powerful than High Sentinels of Arashin, for example. I’d expect to see Linvala in another set soon, maybe even MM2015 this summer. Iona has the distinction of being one of the most unfun and non-interactive cards ever printed, allowing you to have an answer in hand but sorry! you can’t play it. I don’t think Iona will be in this set. Her price and casual appeal don’t demand a reprint the way Avacyn does.

A special note: both Guiding Spirit and Sustaining Spirit would have been on the list, except they are on the Reserved List instead.

With regard to my picks for the set, I’m going to list what I think the value will be initially and what the value will end up at. I’ll also give the financial effect on the originals, foil and nonfoil. For reference, I’m looking at things like Jace, the Mind Sculptor, who took a hit in foil and nonfoil when FTV:Twenty came out. Many cards do take a hit to the foil and nonfoil prices, Maze of Ith and Armageddon among them. I expect a similar path for these Angels.

My picks

White

Avacyn, Angel of Hope – The lock of the set. Avacyn is ridiculous in any deck that can play her, and the reason why your EDH decks need to be packing non-destructive answers like Terminus or Hallowed Burial. She’s iconic, has a great story, and is incredibly powerful.

I would expect Avacyn to be the chase card of this set, and have a price to match. History, with Jace and others, suggests that her price will be at the highest immediately and come down gradually, and in her case, very slowly. The nonfoil will drop somewhat, to about $20 or so, but I think the foil version will rebound to its current level within a few months.

Serra Angel – You may not agree with its inclusion, but the story cannot be told without the original, overpowered version. Yes, she’s overpowered. She is nearly on par with Wingmate Roc, and she was an uncommon! In many ways, removal had to be good to deal with creatures this good, which is a history Magic has spent the last couple of years overcoming.

There are a lot of promo versions of this card out there, with lots of different art. The ‘redeem’ foil featuring the original Douglas Shuler art won’t be affected at all by this printing. Every other version will take a hit and stay low, considering the sheer number of sets this card has been in: sixteen of them, not counting duel decks!

Angel of Finality – This is the first of three ‘has never been foil’ cards I’m picking for this set. It’s a surprisingly underplayed sideboard card in Legacy (you can’t pay two colorless more than Rest in Peace to get a 3/4 flyer?) and it’s a card I really like in my Kaalia deck. More people should be playing this card in Commander and Cube.

The nonfoils from Commander 2013 will lose some value, but I expect this foil to keep a surprising price for a while. A bit of warning: I wouldn’t be surprised if this ended up in a regular set sometime soon. Four mana for a 3/4 flyer plus upside is Restoration Angel.

Silver Seraph – This is a card that is more fragile, more expensive, and less surprising than Dictate of Heliod, but it remains a really awesome card. Threshold is a very easy condition to satisfy in casual formats, and this does a lot of work for you despite costing eight mana.

I think that this will be one of the more expensive cards initally, as the foils are just tough to find, being from a low point in Magic’s sales. I doubt there will be much effect on the prices of the pack foil and the nonfoil, though.

Seraph – Seven mana for a 4/4 flyer. Sure, you get to keep anything it kills or helps to kill, but it’s still a lot of mana for not a lot of effect. This has not yet had a foil, its only printings have been in nonfoil sets to date. This is exactly the sort of card that Wizards likes to dig up and put into an FTV set, just as a reminder of days gone by.

Despite the fun flavor of an angel killing a creature and then enslaving it, I expect this to be one of the cheapest cards from the set and there will be downward pressure on the nonfoil’s price as a result.

Angel of Fury – Angels have had all sorts of abilities to show that they are spirits of the next world. Angels allow others to be reborn, and this one gets reborn. It was one of two Portal candidates, and while you might not like the cost or the shuffle, it’s another card that hasn’t had a foil version yet.

The price of this card is mostly due to the low supply of Portal cards out there. Not as rare as the Three Kingdoms cards, but still not easy to find. I expect this nonfoil to take a significant hit and not really recover.

Mardu

Tariel, Reckoner of Souls – Kaalia’s compatriot in the Heavenly Inferno deck, Tariel is a very busted card if you ever have it in play. Unlike Seraph, the cards it gets will stay even if Tariel leaves play, so it’s Wrath or bust once this gets going. It’s a random effect, but in a couple of turns, you’ll just have it all.

Price-wise, this is likely to be one of the stronger cards if the set shakes out as I expect it to. Tariel is easy to include in Kaalia decks, and this will be the only foil version available for some time. The FTV price will be reasonable, but the nonfoil is going to lose value.

Red

Akroma, Angel of Fury – The only mono-red Angel, she’s color-shifted and has Morph. Bringing back this mechanic right now is a little too perfect. She also adds a nice touch to casual decks with Morphs in them, because your Morph can now be super-terrifying. It’s always baffled me a bit that this Akroma lacks haste.

This will cause a hit to the price of the Planar Chaos foil, but it will recover. Remember that a lot of people really don’t like the foiling process of the FTV cards, so they will pay a premium to get the pack foil. The nonfoils, including the Commander 2011 version, will lose some of their value but not too much.

Boros

Aurelia, the Warleader – The red/white slot is surprisingly contested. Razia, Aurelia, Basandra, and Gisela are all fine cards, but I’m going to let personal bias win this one. Aurelia is a house, capable of ending games out of nowhere, and requiring an instant-speed removal spell.

I will be sad to see her reprinted, for I picked up ten of her around $3 each and I have been pleased to see her growth. I think her nonfoil takes a small hit, but will recover in a year or so. The foil will recover faster, and be more stable.

Bant

Jenara, Asura of War – It’s tough for me to put this in over the equally-mythic Empyrial Archangel, but being a legend, and from a smaller set puts Jenara over the top. Jenara also plays well with the Tiny Leaders format, though I don’t think this set was designed recently enough for that to have been a factor.

Her price will fall slightly but it’ll go back up fairly quickly, and Tiny Leaders will help with that. I suspect the FTV price will stabilize nicely between the current foil/nonfoil split.

Black

Desolation Angel – It’s tough for me to include this over Fallen Angel or Angel of Despair. The effect that Desolation Angel offers is unique, though, and this has one of the biggest foil/nonfoil splits around. I don’t think nonfoils will be hurt at all, but the foils will take a big dive and might not recover.

Azorious

Iridescent Angel – Pristine Angel was in Conspiracy, so now the broken predecessor can have a chance to shine. I really hope this has new art, as the blue line doesn’t really say iridescence to me. This can wear an Equipment for pure profit, as only colorless flyers (or colorless reach) can block it.

This is already quite cheap in nonfoil, but expect the foils to lower by a couple of dollars for a year or so.

WUBRG

Maelstrom Archangel – Another card from Alara block, with the price to match. It’s the only five-color Angel ever, and I imagine if they had the chance, they would go back and make this Legendary for Commander players. This is a card that Kaalia of the Vast would dearly love to have on the team, but it’s just not to be.

I think that this has the most to lose when it’s reprinted. The foil is currently only about twice the nonfoil, and both of those will be hit hard by an appearance in this FTV. Supply has never been big for Conflux, so adding this special set will do significant damage to the prices. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was down half its value in either foil or nonfoil.

Non-Angel Creatures

Angelic Destiny – This is the good way to turn your non-Angels into angelic beings, and do so over and over again. It’s got a certain level of inevitability, but not on the scale of Rancor. Just four mana to add flying, first strike, and +4/+4 is pretty bonkers, even for a mythic.

This is another card that will take a beating price-wise, I think. Magic 2012, being from nearly four years ago, is not as common as you might think. I love this art, and especially in foil. I don’t believe it’ll be as bad as Maelstrom Archangel, but it will be down for a long while.

Entreat the Angels – I really love the Miracle frame in foil, and the Terminus from last year looks good to me. Entreat has popped up a few times in Legacy Miracles, and it’s a card I love in any deck with white mana.

I actually don’t think the nonfoil price will be budged at all. This is an easy card to add to any casual deck, even Tiny Leaders! The foil will take a minor ding in price, but it won’t stay down for long.

Join me next week as we look ahead to one very expensive summer!

 

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The Modern Window

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By Guo Heng Chin

A couple of days ago, I saw this on  my Twitter feed:

@Robobear82‘s request couldn’t have come at a better time with Theros block staples having just seven more months of Standard play. @Robobear82 called for a Batman #mtgfinance writer and he shall get one.  

Today we will be discussing a Magic finance fundamental: the price trajectory of Standard-legal Modern staples and when to pick them up.

Historically, the price of Standard staples from the previous block began their downward spiral around this time of the year, all the way through summer until the end of their lifespan in Standard (Although this year may be slightly different due to the new preliminary Pro Tour Qualifier system, but that’s not what we would be discussing today).

The conventional wisdom would be to pick up Standard staples for casual use or investment around rotation in September. However, as all know that Modern staples are the exception.

So when then is the best time to pick up Modern staples that are currently Standard legal? Or rather, when is a good time to pick up this card:

Argh, my hand! What are you doing to my hand!
Argh, my hand! What are you doing to my hand!

Thoughtseize was one of the most iconic discard spell ever printed in the history of Magic. Ravaging hands since 2007, Thoughtseize saw play in every single format it was legal in, including the hallowed halls of Vintage, and Commander (Duel Commander counts as Commander right).

Thoughtseize’s cross-format ubiquity and popularity in Modern (mtgtop8 ranked Thoughtseize as the 23rd most played card in Modern in 2014 – just two places behind Tarmogoyf – being present in 17.5% of Modern decks in an average of 3 copies) made it one of the most sought after Theros card.

As of writing, the Theros version of Thoughtseize stands at $19 while the Lorwyn copy hovers around $35, half of its previous high of $70. I am not sure if Thoughtseize would ever hit $70 again, but one thing for sure, that card is not going to remain at $19 a year or two down the road.

To answer our question on when is the best time to get in on Thoughtseize, let’s dig through time to have a look at how the window to pick up Modern staples evolved through the years.

The figures used in this article comes from mtgtop8.com’s format top cards list. The list describes the ubiquity of cards in each format and ranks cards by the percentage of decks in which a card was found in.

The First to Buck the Trend

Scalding TarnMisty Rainforest

Modern was announced in fall of 2011. The price of Zendikar fetchlands – which were played in every single format they were legal in – barely budged when Zendikar rotated out during the fall of 2011, unlike the rest of the standard staples from the same block. The blue fetches actually experienced a slight bump upon rotation.

The Zendikar fetches were a precursor to a new trend where the price of Standard staples that saw play in Modern, then still a fledgling format with an uncertain future (kind of like Tiny Leaders now. Shameless subliminal message plug) would not tank upon rotation.

The Last of the Invitationals

Because four Lightning Bolts were not enough.
One does not simply cast Lighting Bolt just four times.

Snapcaster Mage was a Standard powerhouse, and although he was not as pervasive in Modern as he is today, Tiago Chan’s invitational card was already considered a Modern staple when Innistrad rotated in the fall of 2013 (in 2014, Snapcaster was the most played creature in Modern, and fifth most played card with a presence in 30.8% of Modern decks, compared with 2013 when he was the second most played creature, and eleventh most played card with a mere 25.1% saturation across Modern decks). We expected no less from a card that was initially designed to be a land that could counter spells!

Let’s have a look at Snapcaster Mage’s price trajectory during his final year in Standard:

Snapcaster Mage Price Trajectory

Snapcaster trended down during the months preceding Innistrad’s rotation in September 2013 and touched $20 briefly in mid-August 2013. He hovered around $20 – $23 for five months after rotation. At the end of February 2014, Snapcaster Mage shot up to $40.

Patrick Dickmann’s Tempo Twin archetype which ran a playset of Snapcasters alongside the Splinter Twin plan was the breakout deck at Pro Tour Born of the Gods, putting the Tempo Twin archetype on the list of tier one Modern decks (though the deck debut in November 2013).

Snapcaster went down to $35 for the better part of 2014, but as of writing, seemed to be hitting a new ceiling of $45. Again in no small part due to Antonio Del Moral León taking down Pro Tour Fate Reforged with a Splinter Twin deck running three copies of Snapcasters in the main.

The window to pick up Snapcaster Mage would have been the seven month trough between July 2013 and February 2014, when he was fluctuating between $20 to $23.

All rare cards are rare, but some rare cards are rarer than others. Being two years older, Innistrad’s print run was not as high as Theros’ and as a result Snapcaster Mage has a relatively higher rarity than Thoughtseize in terms of supply rarity (last week’s Brainstorm Brewery’s Finance 101 segment dealt with this topic).

The Answer to Everything, Nearly

Abrupt Decay was printed just one year apart from Thoughtseize. and as far as I can recall, Return to Ravnica set a new precedent by being the first of the annual bestselling ever set, a testimony to either the burgeoning Magic playerbase or the fact that shocks sell.

The existence of your threat was... abrupt.
The existence of your threat was… abrupt.

Abrupt Decay enjoyed similar levels of multi-format permeation as with Thoughtseize and Snapcaster Mage, being casted in all formats it is legal in. After all, Abrupt Decay is the ultimate removal for any nonland permanents it could target.

In 2014, Abrupt Decay was present in 22.1% of Vintage decks, being played in Fish variants (sometimes up to a full four copies in the mainboard), Sultai tempo decks and Control. It was found in 18.9% of Legacy decks and was the 17th most played Modern card in 2014, with 20.7% of decks running it. Hey, its even a staple in the newest format on the block, Tiny Leaders.

The price trajectory of Abrupt Decay however, was different from Snapcaster Mage’s:

Abrupt Decay Price

Abrupt Decay bottomed out in November 2013. Its price started ascending at the beginning of February 2014, hitting $10 in the middle of March before peaking at $15 in July and has been hovering around $12 since.

The demand from Abrupt Decay was most likely from non-rotating formats; it barely saw play in the trifecta Mono Black vs UW Control vs Mono Blue Return to Ravniva – Theros Standard. Abrupt Decay was the 67th most played card in Standard, with a saturation of just 7.9% of the field.

The window to pick up Abrupt Decay shut a whole six months earlier than Snapcaster Mage. The best time to up Abrupt Decay was the two month trough between December 2013 and February 2014.

Abrupt Decay could be picked up on the cheap nine to seven months before rotation, compared to Snapcaster Mage, who could still be found on the cheap two months before rotation and up to five months post-rotation.

One More Thing

Let’s look at the price history of one more fall set Modern staple that just rotated out:

Steam Vents

While Steam Vents did not enjoyed the amount of play Snapcaster Mage and Abrupt Decay saw, Steam Vents was the third most played card in Modern in 2014, being tapped by a whooping 36.1% of decks.

Like Abrupt Decay, the best time to pick up your Steam Vents would have been between December 2013 and February 2014 when it was $7.50. There was a slight dip in the month before rotation, but Steam Vents never went below $9.

The Window for Thoughtseize

As we have seen in the price history of the few Modern cards above, the window, the window to get your hands on Standard-legal Modern staples is no longer a few months prior rotation.

Thoughtseize Price

Thoughtseize was at its bottom from July to September last year, fluctuating between $15 to $17. It went up after Ari Lax took down Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir with Abzan Midrange with four mainboard Thoughtseize and spent a couple of months above $20, but is now back at $19.

Based on the price history of Modern staples from the previous block, the window to stock up on your Thoughtseizes is probably right now.

There is one caveat: the upcoming Dragons of Tarkir Event Deck could potentially contain Thoughtseize, the way the Fate Reforge’s Clash pack contained  a copy of Hero’s Downfall, leading to a dip in the price of Hero’s Downfall right after the decklists were spoiled. If you want to be safe, you could wait until the decklist for Dragons of Tarkir’s Event Deck comes out, which should be in a few weeks time.

However,  getting in on an all-format all-star card at $19 seems pretty good. Thoughtseize could easily be a $40 card in the near future, and I think it’s worth the risk of losing a few bucks to an Event Deck reprint. If you have any questions or comments, you can find me on Twitter @theguoheng or just drop a comment below.

 

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Legacy Hero: I’m back

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I’m back. I don’t know how many people have been waiting for my next update but work got in the way. I haven’t been in my own bed in close to a month.

I wanted to drop this note and just let everyone know that I’m still here. I’m working on sorting all of my notes from the past few weeks and putting them together into something you guys actually want to read. I’ve made some progress with the trade binder. I have some exciting stuff to share as soon as I finish getting it together.

Check back later for Legacy Hero #10. I’m excited to share some of my experiences with Magic finance abroad. I don’t know how many of you guys have traded either outside of the country or with people from other countries at a GP or something but it’s a completely different experience.


City of Traders

Lockbox

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By: Travis Allen

A few days ago GP Seville wrapped up. It was a Standard GP over in the south of Spain. While looking through the top eight, I was fairly impressed with the diversity. It consisted, in no particular order, of GR Devotion, Jeskai Tempo, Mono-G Devotion, UB Control, Junk Aggro, Junk Midrange, UW Heroic, and Sidisi Whip. That’s an undeniably diverse format, something for which WotC should congratulate themselves. Building a Standard format that has that many competitive decks is difficult, a feat made more impressive when you consider that what constitutes the top layer has been changing from week to week.

Browsing through the lists from place one to ninety, over 10% of the field, I was pleasantly surprised by the number of Whisperwood Elementals to be found. I spoke highly of them in my set review several weeks back, and after hearing that they had jumped to $12 in Japan, I snapped up all the copies left on eBay under $6. It wasn’t long before the US market caught up – preorder prices on TCG hit nearly $15. That was in the week ahead of release though, and I still didn’t have my copies. I couldn’t list what I didn’t have in hand, and by the time the actual cards reached me, the price had fallen to $6 again. I wasn’t behind per se, but the price wasn’t high enough to sell yet. Since then prices on Whiserpood have started to creep back up after a solid performance at Seville, and while he hasn’t really broken through much to the US yet, I expect his popularity to gain on this side of the Atlantic.

Ideally I should have a number in mind that I’d like to get out. If I bought in for $6 each, what do I have to sell copies for to be happy? Is it $8? $10? $15? While considering how greedy I could be, a solemn fact once more foisted itself on me. There’s a pretty hard limit to just how expensive Whisperwood Elemental can be, and it’s determined by the rest of the cards in the set. 

The core concept we’re looking at today is how card prices are influenced by being the current in-print set. It’s a very simple idea, really. An open pack can’t be, on average, more valuable than a sealed pack. What does that mean, and what are the ramifications?

Figuring out the average value of a pack is simple. Add up the values of each rarity independent of each other, average it out across the number of that type of card, then multiply by the expected number you would find in a pack. For instance, if the average value of a rare in Fate Reforged is $1.91, and you know there’s an 87% chance of a rare being in a pack, then an average pack has an average rare value of $1.6617. Add in the common, uncommon, and mythic average values, and you have the value of a pack.

Once you understand the average value of a pack, you know the average value of a box. If a pack’s average is $2.18, then the average box is worth $78.48. That average box price – that $78.48, or whatever number is appropriate for a particular set at a particular time – is roughly how much in value you will open in a box. It’s not a hard number, of course. Some boxes will have two or three Nexus’, and other boxes will have a foil Ugin. It all evens out in the end though.

What if the average pack isn’t in the low two dollar range? What if there are gobs and gobs of $10 rares that drive the average pack value up to $4? Now a box’s value is $144. If that set is old – say, Innistrad – so be it. The boxes in the market are all that’s there, and they’re subject to normal rules of supply and demand, just like any normal card. But what if the set is in print, such as Fate Reforged is today?

If you’re a vendor and Fate Reforged boxes are $144, you are not wasting any time jumping on the horn and ordering piles and piles of boxes from WotC. WotC will sell you nearly limitless boxes of current sets, and they’ll do it all for somewhere in the neighborhood of $70 to $80 a box. You’ll crack boxes that cost you $70 and sell the singles for $140. That represents one hell of a profit, so you’ll scoop up as many as possible. And you’ll keep ordering them and cracking packs, until it’s not profitable to do so anymore. And so will every other store. And eventually, the market will be flooded with packs, and those packs won’t be worth an average of $4 anymore.

As more and more product is entering the market, more and more of each card is becoming available. No card, now matter how good it is, can maintain a $10 price tag if you put millions of them into the wild. As the market gets flooded with boxes, card values will keep dropping, until eventually the average pack isn’t $4 anymore, it’s back to the low $2 range again. Average boxes will drop from $144 to $80 again, people will stop buying them, vendors will stop ordering them, and new copies of cards will stop entering the market. Equilibrium. (Probably an awesome card in an Animar TL deck, by the way.)

Of course, we’re operating in an imperfect system. Taxes and shipping costs and manual labor all add inefficiencies to the system, as does time for boxes to move from one point to another. All the players needing a given card won’t suddenly have access to it because a store somewhere in a twenty mile radius just cracked a pack. The system isn’t perfect, and so the numbers won’t be either. Occasionally the average value of a pack may be twenty cents too high for a week or two while the supply catches up. This is simply the nature of a physical market.

When a set is out of print, there’s nothing to stop prices from getting out of control. That’s why Future Sight boxes are $700. While a set is in print, though, vendors will just keep ordering boxes as long as it’s profitable to do so. And with WotC willing to pump out as many boxes as stores are willing to buy at $70 or so, the average price of a box is chained to that value. With box values essentially mandated by WotC, it holds average pack prices steady, and therefore holds the total value of singles steady.

With average pack prices of an in-print set constrained, there’s only so much value that can be opened. You can’t have twenty-five $10 rares, and you can’t have eight $30 mythics. That would push pack values too high, which we just saw will self-correct. As cards find the price the market will bear, the entire rest of the set is shaped around it. Consider Ugin, currently a little over $30. Ugin is that expensive because demand is so high. Standard, Modern, Legacy, EDH, casual – everyone wants to be casting eight-mana Planeswalkers these days. Knowing that, we can look at Whisperwood Elemental and start to understand what his price potential is. If tomorrow everyone realizes Whisperwood is the second best mythic in the set and demand begins to rise, his price will go with it. Pack values would rise, and we already figured out what happens in that scenario.

We know that the market basically requires boxes to be worth roughly $80 each, and that has an impact on all the singles in the set. If market demand for Ugin is over $30 and Monastery Mentor is $20+, that’s going to suck up a lot of value for the other cards in the set. You simply can’t have $25 Tasigurs, because that would mean a box is too valuable. If a few cards in a set are expensive, it creates a limiting effect on the price of the cards that share a booster pack with it. Thus, my Whisperwood Elementals have a theoretical price ceiling by virtue of being in the same set as Ugin, Monastery Mentor, and Tasigur.

This works the other way as well, although we see it less often. Dragon’s Maze was a pretty godawful set, with very few cards people had any interest in. Voice of Resurgence was far and away the best card, and it fell off rapidly after that. Boxes couldn’t really be any cheaper than $80, since that’s what vendors had to pay for them, but with no other desirable cards in the set, that meant Voice of Resurgence had to carry that price tag on his own, which is how we ended up with $60 Voices at one point. When a single mythic is the only good card in a set, it’s going to carry most of the cost of a box on its own.

There are a few practical outcomes from all of this.

  • Within two or three weeks of a sets release, boxes will always fall to the same price of around $80ish. (So long as WotC keeps selling them to stores for around $75.)
  • If the singles within the set ever become too valuable, stores will start cracking packs to sell in their case, increasing supply and thus lowering prices.
  • When a handful of cards have high price tags, it will suppress the price of all the other cards in the set.
  • If there’s only very few good cards in a set, they’ll carry the weight of the box price on their own.

Applying this to Fate Reforged, we see that Ugin is holding strong at $30 and Monastery Mentor looks to be stable at $25 for now. With those two sustaining large price tags, there won’t be too much value in a box left to assign to cards like Whisperwood and Tasigur. In fact, that’s really the only reason Tasigur is as cheap as he is. If he was in Dragon’s Maze he would have been a $25 rare.

I keep looking at cards in Fate Reforged and thinking “that card could be worth twice that,” but then I have to remember that if I think that about twenty different cards, none of them are actually capable of rising that much in price. Even though all of these cards are quite strong and could be $15+ in other sets, when you put them all into a set together it limits the price of all. Keep this in mind when considering how much cards in Fate Reforged could conceivably rise in the near future. And just as importantly, keep it in mind for when Fate Reforged is off the printers – at that point WotC won’t be keeping the price of a box chained to $80 and the sky’s the limit.

 

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY