Thinking About Modern Masters II

December 7, 2014 Jared Yost 23 Comments

By: Jared Yost

For the Modern fans among us, I feel like it’s time to give some serious thought to the upcoming Modern Masters II now that Khans has been out for a few months. Gathering inspiration from some of the awesome deck’s I’ve been seeing last week at the Magic World Championships, I’ve decided to see what Modern looks like now that Khans has been in the format for several months. Knowing where the format is heading will be important in determining what cards have the highest chance of being in MM2.

Modern Masters Two will not only reduce prices, thereby allowing newer players to more easily enter the format, but it will also provide us with opportunities for picking up previously expensive casual and Commander cards that just happened to be included in the set because someone at Wizards R&D really liked them. Thinking about them now will give us plenty of time to consider whether or not we would like to trade them or buylist them for other potential value cards.

Current Day Values

Let’s see what the most current price swings for cards over the last week have been in Modern according to MTGPrice’s 50 Biggest Gainers of the Week.

Card Name	Set	Price	Gain
Chalice of the Void	Modern Masters	$10.95	4.41
Thoughtseize	Lorwyn	$36.10	3.6
Chalice of the Void	Mirrodin	$9.46	1.98
Brimaz, King of Oreskos	Born of the Gods	$30.70	1.81
Sliver Legion	Future Sight	$49.89	1.65
Tarmogoyf	Modern Masters	$196.95	0.96
Fatestitcher	Shards of Alara	$1.25	0.95
Arid Mesa	Zendikar	$31.26	0.93
Liliana of the Veil	Innistrad	$57.51	0.88
Phyrexian Obliterator	New Phyrexia	$29.54	0.77
Eldrazi Monument	Zendikar	$9.54	0.69
Infernal Tutor	Dissension	$13.83	0.67
Minamo, School at Water's Edge	Champions of Kamigawa	$11.36	0.64
Dark Confidant	Modern Masters	$86.82	0.63
Flooded Strand	Khans of Tarkir	$17.58	0.59
Sorin Markov	Zendikar	$15.67	0.58
Quicksilver Amulet	M12	$7.74	0.57
Phantasmal Image	M12	$7.85	0.56
Dark Confidant	Ravnica	$85.15	0.55
Rhys the Redeemed	Shadowmoor	$17.54	0.55
AEther Vial	Darksteel	$23.36	0.54
Tamiyo, the Moon Sage	Avacyn Restored	$14.02	0.53
Whip of Erebos	Theros	$3.02	0.53
Painter's Servant	Shadowmoor	$10.49	0.51
Glimpse of Nature	Champions of Kamigawa	$29.39	0.5
Sorin Markov	M12	$14.58	0.47
Tezzeret the Seeker	Shards of Alara	$14.82	0.47
Furyborn Hellkite	M12	$2.99	0.46
Cascade Bluffs	Eventide	$24.39	0.46
Extraplanar Lens	Mirrodin	$10.00	0.44
Smash to Smithereens	Shadowmoor	$4.18	0.43
Mox Opal	Scars of Mirrodin	$56.30	0.42
Akroma's Memorial	M13	$9.45	0.41
Ensnaring Bridge	8th Edition	$21.05	0.41
Glimpse the Unthinkable	Ravnica	$25.02	0.41
Scalding Tarn	Zendikar	$48.56	0.41
Sword of Fire and Ice	Darksteel	$40.78	0.41
Deathbringer Liege	Eventide	$12.35	0.4
Wooded Foothills	Khans of Tarkir	$11.81	0.4
Flooded Grove	Eventide	$23.43	0.4
Steam Vents	Guildpact	$15.79	0.39
Razorfoot Grifin	M10	$0.39	0.39
City of Brass	Modern Masters	$4.02	0.39
Hero of Iroas	Born of the Gods	$2.55	0.39
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn	Rise of the Eldrazi	$55.53	0.39
Elvish Piper	9th Edition	$8.14	0.38
Glen Elendra Archmage	Eventide	$6.75	0.38
Voidslime	Dissension	$7.68	0.38
Garruk Wildspeaker	Lorwyn	$9.25	0.37
Ajani, Mentor of Heroes	Journey Into Nyx	$19.77	0.36

Chalice of the Void is the clear winner. Treasure Cruise has arguably done the most damage in Modern than any other format. For now though, many players are fighting through all the TC decks with their cheap cantrips by maindecking or sideboarding Chalice of the Void. Chalice for one charge counter stops a large majority of the spells and will slow them down considerably.

I think the boat has passed on Chalice of the Void for now due to the recent spike. It has spiked to $15 TCG Median and will be sitting there for quite some time – at least until Treasure Cruise is banned. (maybe?)

Another notable high up on the list is Phyrexian Obliterator, which seems to still be hovering around the $30 threshold. It spiked to $30 back in January of this year and hasn’t moved since then. It is played in Modern but isn’t a staple of the format like Tarmogoyf or Dark Confidant. This leads me to believe that the majority of its demand comes from the casual crowd. Casuals love the effect of this horror which makes it seem like a good pickup. The price could easily spike again January of 2015 since it hasn’t moved for a year.

Now that we know which cards seem to be trending upwards in value, let’s take a look at the current metagame and most played cards.

Current Metagame and Most Played Cards

The MTGTop8 recorded metagame over the last two months includes the following:

Aggro	#
UR Aggro	72
Red Deck Wins	33
Affinity	25
Hatebear	13
Aura Hexproof	12
Zoo	11
Merfolk	8
Junk	8
RUG Aggro	5
Jund	3
Boremandos	2
Loam	2
Tokens	1
Other – Aggro	1

Control
UWx Midrange	12
UrzaTron	10
Valakut	6
Martyr Life	5
Blue Moon	5
UW Control	4
Gift Control	2
The Rock	1
Faeries	1
Other – Control	6

Combo
Birthing Pod	38
Scapeshift	25
Twin Exarch	16
Bloom Titan	7
Jeskai Ascendancy	7
UR Storm	5
Ad Nauseam	4
Infect	2
Living End	1
Instant Reanimator	1
Other – Combo	1

UR Aggro has become the most dominant deck in the format, representing 20% of the Top 8 appearances. UWx is still the most popular control deck and Birthing Pod is still the most popular combo deck through Khans.

Scapeshift has started outpacing Twin Exarch lists as a favorite combo choice since it is much harder to disrupt land drops than creatures in order to execute your instant-win combo. Jeskai Ascendency has become a successful deck in Modern but it is not quite as dominant as everyone thought it would become.

One deck that is falling out of favor is UrzaTron, due to the speed of the UR Aggro decks in the format. Martyr Life seems to be a deck that is taking its place since gaining a huge amount of life in addition will help outpace all of the UR and Burn decks floating around.

Another deck falling out of favor is Living End. With only one Top 8 placement in the last two months, it appears that Living End is falling out of favor for the faster combo decks.

What Does It All Mean?

After reviewing both MTGPrice’s 50 Biggest Gainers of the Week and the MTG Top 8 results over the last two months, I would like to make some observations about several of the cards identified in the first section that I think have a surprising price. In addition, I would like to address the more expensive parts of the decks in the MTG Top 8 results that did not appear in the recently trending cards. My thoughts pertain to the non-foil version of the card for all cases.

Card	MM2 Possible Inclusion?	Reasoning	Price Thoughts
Chalice of the Void	No	Reprint in first MM	Price is inflated due to Treasure Cruise metagame shift. A banning of TC will make Chalice drop again. If you didn’t get in before the spike, then you missed the boat for profit. Only pickup now if you plan on playing Modern in the near future.
Phyrexian Obliterator	Yes	Casual favorite, Some Modern play	Expensive, but could spike again before MM2. Pick up your copies before January if you plan on playing with Obliterator in the near future – otherwise wait to see if it is in MM2.
Arid Mesa (and other ZEN fetchlands)	Yes	Modern staple, no reprint yet.	The prices of the ZEN fetches have dropped considerably upon Khans fetches being released. They will drop even more if a MM2 reprint happens. I would wait on picking up ZEN fetches unless you need them right away.
Aether Vial	No	Reprint in first MM	Aether Vial seems to be trending upwards yet does receive a reprint every now and then. I think Vial will continue to trend upwards until the next reprint, whenever that may come.
Cascade Bluffs (and other SHM filter lands)	No	As a set of ten two-color filter lands, this cycle would be better off reprinted across another block like the shocklands were reprinted in RTR block.	Prices for these lands are waaaaay overinflated. Once these are reprinted they are going to bottom out hard. I would not pick up copies of these at all unless you need them for a deck.
Smash to Smithereens	Yes	Common, easy to include and is used heavily in Modern against affinity and other artifact based decks.	Price will drop hard once the card is reprinted and it doesn’t have much room to move up. Get rid of any extra copies you have.
Mox Opal	Yes	Affinity staple.	Price will drop, but not considerably. Still be wary of holding onto Mox Opals through next summer.
Ensnaring Bridge	Yes	Hard to find. Played in Commander, Modern, and Legacy. Casuals also love this card.	Price will drop with a reprint. However, in the long run the price will go up over time until the next reprint. Wait for the bottom and then pick them up.
Steam Vents (and other RTR / GTC shocklands)	No	Just reprinted in recent block. Wizards even added extras to the market by including them in Dragon’s Maze.	Pick up shocklands now before their price starts creeping back up again once they become harder to find. I would target blue lands especially.
Minamo, School at Water’s Edge	No	Kamigawa legendary lands are sometimes seen in Modern (Eiganjo is one example) but are played a ton in Commander. I’d expect these lands in a Commander product.	Not something I would look to pick up. The card is not going to $20+ anytime soon and if reprinted next year will drop like a rock.
Sorin Markov	No	Two printings already, mainly just a casual card.	Sorin is at $15 and climbing. I don’t think he will be reprinted in MM2 but could definitely be reprinted in a Commander or casual supplementary product.
Quicksilver Amulet	No	Two printings already, mainly just a casual card.	Similar to Sorin, could easily be put in a supplementary product and is not doubling up any time soon.
Rhys the Redeemed	Yes	Only one printing and lots of casual love.	$18 is very high for Rhys. He is worth almost as much as Doubling Season, which is saying something. The price is propped up by scarcity alone. One reprint will crash it.
Extraplanar Lens	Yes	Only one printing and lots of casual love.	I would expect Wizards to skip EL over other cards for MM2 but this could be a last minute include since they did not include it in the recent C14 decks. Price will crash if a reprint happens.
Akroma’s Memorial	No	Two printings already, mainly a casual card.	Akroma’s Memorial will keep rising over time until the next reprint. I don’t think this reprint will be in MM2.
Glimpse the Unthinkable	Yes	Popular casual card with some Modern appeal for a mill deck. Only one printing.	Glimpse is a card that a ton of players love that has yet to see a reprint. MM2 is a great place for it. Price will crash when this happens since it is mainly just a casual card.
Deathbringer Liege	No	Popular casual card yet Wizards has found ways outside of MM sets to reprint these (C13, Planechase 2012, etc.)	Lords are popular casual cards but I don’t see this one being printed in a MM set for the reasons I stated. The price will go up over time for this liege without a reprint, though I do expect a commander release to contain this or another liege next year.
Elvish Piper	No	Six reprints already. Can find another place outside MM set.	Price will continue to go up until the next reprint. Last reprint was 10th edition, so it has been quite a while since Piper has had a reprint. Maybe the next commander set?
Voidslime	Yes	Only one regular reprinting (Champs was full art). Like Glimpse the Unthinkable its a popular casual card, even if not really played in Modern.	I don’t think this card has much room to grow. Only casually popular. If included in Modern Masters the price will drop.
Young PyromancerSerum VisionsGitaxian Probe Forked Bolt Inquisition of Kozilek Remand Spell Pierce	Yes	I’m including all these cards in the same category because I feel that they are uncommons and commons that could easily get reprinted. They are overvalued in price due to being scarce.	Though not all of these uncommons / commons could be printed, I would expect a large majority of them to be on the list for MM2. I will be getting rid of any extra copies of these I have before next summer (except maybe Young Pyromancer because that is one hot uncommon!).
Goblin Guide	Yes	Hugely popular card, both casually and in Modern.	Guide will drop significantly if printed in MM2. Will continue to increase in price until reprint is announced.
Eidolon of the Great Revel	No	Standard legal card, no reason.	They could still include Eidolon in an event deck or other supplementary product. The price will continue to go up slowly until then.
Noble Hierarch	Yes	Very costly pricewise. Important piece of mana fixing and tempo in Modern and Legacy. High probability of being in MM2.	Hierarch doesn’t have much room to grow, only because most are speculating a reprint in MM2. I would trade away any extra copies you have because the risk is far greater holding.
Daybreak CoronetAven Mindcensor	Yes	Random future sight rare with one printing that is amazing in Modern. Commander also likes this card.	Like Hierarch, Daybreak Coronet would not be worth nearly as much if not for being in an older, less printed set. Aven Mindcensor is in the same camp.
Geist of Saint Traft	Yes	Popular casual, Commander, and Modern card.	I think Geist has a fair chance of being reprinted as a mythic in MM2, especially if Treasure Cruise is not banned. Very powerful, efficient beater.
Snapcaster Mage	Yes	Multi-format all star with only one printing.	Like Goyf and Bob, Snappy will probably be a mythic in MM2 to not kill the price. Should stabilize Snapcaster if this happens.
Restoration Angel	Yes	Efficient Modern beater, casual fan favorite being an Angel.	Resto-Angel has a decent chance of being in MM2. If not MM2, then certainly a commander product in the future.
Karn Liberated Grove of the Burnwillows	Yes	Karn is way pricy for a planeswalker, only due to being in NPH. Grove is similarly expensive though played in more than one Modern deck. Both need another reprint to reduce prices.	Both cards will continue to increase in price, but not substantially. Again, risk is way too high to hold extra copies.
Mythic Eldrazi (Emrakul, Kozilek, Ulamog)	Yes?	MM2 is a great place for the Eldrazi as a mythic rare cycle. Also, they are casual favorites like many cards on this list.	Slowly going up, but reprint fear will keep prices stabilized for some time.
Ranger of EosSerra Ascendant	Yes	Hard to find, only one printing.	Slowly going up, but reprint fear will keep prices stabilized for some time.
Linvala, Keeper of Silence	Yes	Hard to find, only one printing.	Slowly going up, but reprint fear will keep prices stabilized for some time.
Birthing Pod	Yes	Modern staple	Slowly going up, but reprint fear will keep prices stabilized for some time.
Splinter Twin	Yes	Modern staple	Slowly going up, but reprint fear will keep prices stabilized for some time.
Azusa, Lost but Seeking	Yes	Hard to find, only one printing.	Slowly going up, but reprint fear will keep prices stabilized for some time.

These are my brief thoughts on various cards for inclusion in MM2. Do you think I’ve missed anything important for this list? What curveballs do you think Wizards will throw into MM2? (Remember Ryusei, the Falling Star and other CHK dragon’s in the first MM? Eww.) What types of mechanic themes do you think the set will have?

Regardless of how my predictions turn out, I think that Modern Masters II will be a fun set!

ADVERTISEMENT: Save up to 46% off retail prices during the CheapCardSleeves Cyber Monday sale, now extended through this week! Enjoy huge discounts on Ultra Pro, KMC, and Dragon Shield sleeves. If you’re looking to stock up on card sleeves, now is the time!

Casual Fridays

Bad Owners, Bad Policies

December 5, 2014 Cliff Daigle 27 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

Let me give you a situation that you might not remember having been in.

You’ve been playing Magic for a few weeks. Maybe a friend taught you, maybe you played Duels of the Planeswalkers, maybe you found an intro deck and just liked the art. You feel ready to head to your local game store and you head there, being told that you can rule at FNM, or something to that extent.

I want to share with you some things to watch out for, as a new or experienced player. These are financial pitfalls that can ruin your experience or turn you off from that store for good.

Rare Redrafting

There is no situation that will sour me faster on a store than the practice of collecting the rares after the last round of the draft and then having first place in the draft choose a card. I get what it’s for: a reward for having won, your choice of the cards that were opened. Instead of the best cards in three packs, you’re looking at the best of 24 packs. Seems like a great idea, right? It’s even good training for a high-level draft, where you’re choosing card quality over card value.

If you and a group of friends want to redraft the rares, that’s pretty awesome. You’re playing for something of value without needing to have extra packs. If this is how you and seven friends want to draft three times out of two boxes, more power to you.

At the store level, though, there are real problems with a rare redraft. One, it feels terrible to open a sweet card and know that you’re not going to be able to keep it. Imagine that you’ve had a bad two packs of a draft. You misread signals, you opened poorly, someone in front of you changed colors, etc. It happens to all of us. Then in pack 3 of Khans, there it is, a foil fetchland. Congratulations! You view tonight as a win.

With a redraft, though, there is little chance that you’re going to hang on to that foil. Unless you do something sneaky, like take it out of circulation. Draft the card, hide it in a deck box, and don’t tell anyone. They’ll notice at the end of the draft that something is wrong, and that’s the second issue with redrafting: I’ve rarely seen it work where 8 players put up 24 rares. With the foil fetch example, what’s to stop me from swapping in a Clever Impersonator out of my binder once the time comes?

It’s especially egregious to have a redraft in place of prize packs. Stores get excellent prices on their packs, about half retail price for the most part. Stores that charge you $12 to draft and give a redraft as the prize are shorting you on value and experience.

Shoddy buylisting/credit

True story: I went to a game store six months ago and was seeking to sell a Gaea’s Cradle. It had a retail price of about $120 then. I went into the store, which I had drafted at before, and they had a tablet set up displaying their buylist. I could browse what prices they gave without troubling a clerk. I picked out a few things and told the clerk I wanted cash, not credit.

“The price on there is the credit price. We give half of that credit if you want cash.” So I got offered $35 cash on a Gaea’s Cradle.

Needless to say, I haven’t been back there.

Stay away from stores that are trying to make too much money off of individual transactions. It’s just bad business and it’s going to leave you feeling angry that you were taken advantage of in such a way. Not getting full retail for your cards is a part of the game, but getting dimes on the dollar is just too much.

Cheap play area

There are some remarkably awful places to play Magic. I’ve been in stores where neither side of a table had room to get in and out, but instead each player had to pull the table to them, in order to let someone else out. I’ve done a draft in a store that had room for exactly eight players, and anyone extra was going to play outside. Heaven help me, I’ve played PTQs in the cheapest , flimsiest of IKEA chairs.

My wife wins, though. She visited her parents in upstate New York, and for fun, went to an FNM draft. This place, in October, had drafts occurring in an open garage, around a high table with no chairs. She was the only one who brought sleeves!

If you encounter a store that can’t bother to have a place to let you play, don’t give them your money.

On a related note: Don’t stay one minute if anyone ever talks to you about table fees.

Arbitrary store owners/employees

This is less of an issue than it used to be, I hope. I learned to play at stores that tolerated Magic, but who felt in their heart of hearts that everything should be comics or miniatures. I knew, for a fact, that Magic made them more money but they didn’t like having to learn a new game or depend on something they didn’t understand.

So they didn’t bother.

This would lead to store owners who didn’t care, or worse, let some constantly-present customer take over. I know the era of ‘I don’t work here, but I get treated like I do’ isn’t over and that’s a shame, because that can be bad for business.

Perhaps the worst is when a buddy of the owner decides he doesn’t have to play by any rules, and the owner allows it. That store won’t be around long and you should plan for their going-out-of-business sale.

Tolerating cheaters/bullies

If you’re a high-volume trader, seller, or speculator, you might do a lot of business with one store, building a relationship with them over time. This is usually beneficial for you, for them, and for the other players at the store who get access to more cards that they want.

Such things can sour, though, if there’s preferential treatment or awful behavior going on. If the guy who ‘runs’ the card case at a store decides he’s only going to play with Ice Age lands and no sleeves, and the owner does nothing, no one else will play!

Crazy Pricing

Finally, I want to bring up stores that don’t seem to know about the Internet. Sure, a brick-and-mortar store can have a small increase in price over a card’s price online, that’s part of the price you pay for getting the card immediately. If you need it fast, it’ll cost you more. (This is why Containment Priest was $50 on the GP New Jersey floor the morning of the event)

Some stores, though, never catch up. It’s understandable if they get bought out of a card before they found out about a card spiking (maybe they need to become ProTraders!) but I’ve been to more than a few stores that bought at the new price, and then tried to sell it at an even higher price!

Buying singles is generally the way to go. Buying packs and hoping to crack the value is usually not going to give you a return on your investment. Singles, though, are only worth it if the stores aren’t trying to make up for their mistake when buying.

I hope you found some of these tips helpful when you’re choosing a store to play at.

And if you have some ‘awful store’ stories, I’d love to hear them, in the comments or tweet me @WordOfCommander

ADVERTISEMENT: MTG cards storages are simply boring these days, why settle for the usual holiday gift box or the fat pack box? Get the Grimoire Deck Box and store your prized collection with the best best in class storage

Uncategorized

Legacy Hero #5

December 4, 2014 Jason Swistoski

Legacy Hero #5

With all of the commotion from the holiday it was rather difficult to put anything together that was worth reading last week so I took a mini vacation from writing. I hope everyone had a great holiday. I’m excited to get back into the swing of things. I have some great stuff for you guys this week.

First things first. I received some feedback about my comment regarding using my job to ship stuff for free. It is not okay to steal stamps from your work, especially to mail out magic cards. I am fortunate to work in a place where I get to take advantage of free postage due to the volume of mail we send out. I won’t do that for this series going forward. It isn’t a fair way to operate when I’m trying to show people how to do something. The actual cost of the stamps may seem trivial when compared to a deck that costs thousands of dollars but I need to operate this series on the same playing field as the majority of the community.

I feel the need to throw in my two cents regarding the changes with the way Star City is going to handle their opens in the coming year. I know I’m late to the show here but I want to say my peace. By now, everyone probably knows about the changes but just in case you’ve been living off the grid they are doing away with the current dual open format and condensing them into a single format event styled after the Grand Prixs with larger payouts, and the other formats will be represented on Sundays with $5000 Super IQs without the video coverage. When the changes start we will be reduced to three Legacy Opens, out of the nineteen opportunities. While we will have larger payouts, there won’t be an opportunity to watch Legacy on Sundays like we used to. Personally, I can’t tell you how many times I have the stream open and playing in the background while doing other things. I stumbled across this post on Facebook from Jared Sylva going into a little more detail about the situation.

I’m not a fan of the changes for selfish reasons but from their perspective it makes business sense to switch things over. I don’t believe that the changes will be the death of Legacy. The changes shouldn’t affect the Legacy prices that much, if at all. There is a lot of talk about the “Legacy Bubble” and this could be the end. I’m not immersed into the finance culture enough to make any sort of calls on the subject. My gut tells me that there is a bubble and it is slowly deflating and prices will settle a little lower than they are now. Volcanic Island looks to be overtaking Underground Sea as the premium dual land but that’s about it.

Next up, we have the Pucatrade updates. I want to stress how important it is to manage your wants list. I had a nice little stockpile of points going for a while. Unfortunately I had a small incident. I was sitting down after a piece of pumpkin pie, looking up prices of random foils when all of a sudden my point total went tumbling down. I lost over 800 points. Somehow I had added Ancestral Visions to my want list and someone decided to ship one my way. I don’t remember even adding it to my list. Lesson learned. I revised my wants list immediately. At this point, my hope is that it gets unbanned in Modern and blows up to $30 overnight. The only other Pucatrade news is shipping out my foil Kaervek, the Merciless for almost 900 points. I’m glad to be rid of that thing.

I know that everyone who has been following this series has been waiting for the trades. You guys want to see how I am going to start getting things together. It’s been pretty tough. One thing I’ve learned from this project so far, is how difficult it can be on the other side of the trade table. I haven’t had to actively look for trades in quite some time. I forgot how brutal it really is out there. When you’re the one looking for the cards, it’s a hard road without cash. The number of wannabe sharks is insane. In my regular store, people know how I operate and how I strive to be fair. The other stores I’ve been trying out don’t see things quite the same way. I feel for you guys. The struggle is real. That being said, I was able to sit down with someone and hash out a deal that should go a long way in deck construction.Finding the trade was a stroke of pure luck. I was at a random store that I’ve been to a couple times before, but it is certainly a long way out of my regular rotation. I had heard through the grapevine that the EDH crowd there was pretty hardcore. Having a hardcore playgroup to trade with can be a very good thing when you’re stuck with a bunch of random things in your binder. In my experience the hardcore EDH/Casual crowd have good quality trades available and usually have a diverse taste for cards. One thing I like to do before sitting down to grind some binders is take a look at the store’s inventory. Identifying what they’re out of stock on and what they’re actively buying helps identify the market you’re in. As an example, my local store’s market is very different than the store I go to to play EDH at. The store I play FNM at pays $5 more (in store credit) for Thoughtseize than the store I play EDH at. Having bits of information like that will go a long way in helping you maximize your card values.

Getting back to the trade, as I mentioned, it was pure luck. I was sitting down with some people I haven’t met before, talking about their meta game and trying to get someone to look through my trades when someone asked if I happened to have a foil Savageborn Hydra. As luck would have it, I did. I pulled out my stuff and told him take a look at what I had. Like any normal, sane person he was more than happy too. I told him to just pulling out things he was interested in. Having the other person go through all of your stuff and pull out everything they’re interested in puts you in the drivers seat. I learned this little trick a long time ago. It gives you the opportunity to pick through their cards to match the value they’ve already established. You get to pick and choose the cards that are going to net you the most value while maintaining their interest. If your trade partner is excited about getting a big stack of cards they are usually willing to lose a little value because of the attachment they already have to the cards. When I sold cars just after college I would always let the customer hold the keys after we got back from the test drive. That little token implies ownership. This situation is similar in that your trading partner has already found all of the things they could possibly want from you and you are going to find whatever you can to make the numbers work. You are going to go out of your way to make sure they get to walk away with everything they wanted. The downside that this process can be a huge waste of time if your perspective trade partner just doesn’t have anything. 90% of the time people will be upfront with you and tell you that they don’t have much to trade and they don’t want to waste your time. When those situations come up I will usually tell them to take a look at my cards while I flip through what they have and then see what they have, see if i’m wasting time or not.

He spend 20 mins or so digging through my stuff and ended up with this nice little pile.

The picture isn’t the best so here is the list;

Ichorid

Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir x2 (Time Spiral)

Electrolyze x4 (Modern Masters)

Elspeth, Sun’s Champion

Grim Lavamancer (M12)

Aether Vial (Modern Masters)

Thoughtseize (Theros)

Temple of Abandon x4

Temple of Silence x4

Temple of Triumph x4

Temple of Deceit x4

Vesuva

Knight of the Reliquary (Modern Masters)

Academy Ruins x2 (Modern Masters)

Cabal Coffers (Torment)

Foil Savageborn Hydra

At this point I hadn’t even looked through his stuff. He had a pretty decent sized binder and a smaller monster binder. A good sign to me. The more expensive cards usually reside in the smaller binder. I thumbed through the stack of card he has set aside and did a little math in my head and estimated about $200 in value. I’m not Rain Man, I just make sure to double check the prices of my cards before heading out for the day. I don’t like to be the guy that pulls out his phone to look up prices. I want my trade partner to be the one to pull out the phone and start looking up prices. The standard pricing tool I run into most of the time seems to be tcgplayer.com mid but there really isn’t an industry standard.

I take my time and go through everything in his binders a couple times before pulling anything out. He has a lot of good stuff that I need for the deck. Force of Will, Tundra, Swords to Plowshares, etc.The first couple cards I pull out of his binder are a pair of Unglued Mountains. I love those damn things. I’m a total sucker for Unglued and Unhinged lands. I know I want to make a play for some bigger cards here. I decide to try and shoot for the Tundra and settle for Force of Will. I also decide to snag the 5 Chalice of the Void he has. It’s been around $6 for a while (at the time I made the trade last week) and I really liked the card for a speculation target. Chalice of the Void has been talked about for a while as an answer to the new Delver deck.

Here is the list I put together from his binder

Brainstorm x4 (Mercadian Masques)

Swords to Plowshares x4 (Duel Decks)

Mountain x2 (Unglued)

Ancient Tomb (Tempest)

Sensei’s Divining Top (Champions)

Chalice of the Void x4 (Mirrodin)

Chalice of the Void (Modern Masters)

Tundra MP (Revised)

Force of Will LP x2 (Alliances)

Show and Tell (Judge Promo)

Karakas (Judge Promo)

I could probably write an entire article about the psychology involved with trading but that will have to wait for another day. Basically I made sure to grab more value from his binder then mine and the judge foils. Based on my read of him (using what he was telling me about how he built his decks) he liked his foils and he loved his promos. Presenting him with the chance of keeping his promos and still getting all the stuff he wants from me is another subtle advantage for me. The toughest part of this trade was establishing a value for the played cards. The Force of Wills and Tundra were less than mint. I’m not a professional card grader. I always err on the side of caution when grading/pricing my cards and do the same with my trading partner’s cards. He went to eBay closed auctions and used that to try and price the played cards but wasn’t going to budge from his $200 price on the Tundra. However, he put $65 on the Force of Wills. That number worked well for me! I walked away with this

Brainstorm x4 (Mercadian Masques)

Swords to Plowshares x4 (Duel Decks)

Mountain x2 (Unglued)

Ancient Tomb (Tempest)

Sensei’s Divining Top (Champions)

Chalice of the Void x4 (Mirrodin)

Chalice of the Void (Modern Masters)

Force of Will LP x2 (Alliances)

The cards he got from me totaled up to $221 and the cards I got from him totaled $215. Why would I give away $5 of value? Let’s take a look at the numbers breakdown.

Cards I’m trading away;

Ichorid $13

Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir x2 (Time Spiral) $13 ($26)

Electrolyze x4 (Modern Masters) $2 ($8)

Elspeth, Sun’s Champion $20

Grim Lavamancer (M12) $4

Aether Vial (Modern Masters) $22

Thoughtseize (Theros) $22

Temple of Abandon x4 $2.50 ($10)

Temple of Silence x4 $4 ($16)

Temple of Triumph x4 $5 ($20)

Temple of Deceit x4 $3 ($12)

Vesuva $12

Knight of the Reliquary (Modern Masters) $5

Academy Ruins x2 (Modern Masters) $6.50 ($13)

Cabal Coffers LP (Torment) $10

Foil Savageborn Hydra $8

Total: $221

And my end of the trade;

Brainstorm x4 (Mercadian Masques) $1 ($4)

Swords to Plowshares x4 (Duel Decks) $3 ($12)

Mountain MP x2 (Unglued) $2 ($4)

Ancient Tomb (Tempest) $15

Sensei’s Divining Top (Champions) $20

Chalice of the Void x4 (Mirrodin) $6 ($24)

Chalice of the Void (Modern Masters) $6

Force of Will LP x2 (Alliances) $65 ($130)

Total: $215

The condition of the Force of Wills aren’t as bad as he thought. Light Play Force of Will for $65 each? Yeah. That’s a win in my book. Trading out a ton of standard cards for solid legacy staples? Also a win in my book. Getting Chalice of the Void for $6 when (as of 12/1) they are now buy-listing for that price? Another victory.

The six Chalice of the Voids that I scored are going to go a long way in helping me refill my trade binder after this. That’s all for this week though. I will have plenty more next week.

As always I appreciate feedback.

Follow me on twitter @somethingsays and you can email me at mtglegacyhero@gmail.com

Uncategorized

Picking Through Standard

December 2, 2014 Guo Heng Chin 7 Comments

By Guo Heng Chin

Today we will be deviating from our usual Commander foils to take a look at a few undervalued cards in Standard. I know, the price for the majority of Standard cards have already settled and we are at that time of the year again. No, I am not talking about the holiday season, though I very much look forward to it. I am referring to the annual December Standard price trough, when cards from the fall set experience a set-wide drop in price. December is the month when Magic Online redemptions have hit the market for a couple of weeks, and coupled with two months of heavy drafting (well, the fall set was all we had to draft with) creates the first price bottom of the fall set cards.

If you are looking to acquire the Standard pieces you need for your decks and complete your personal playset of Khans of Tarkir cards, now is a good time to do so. However, I would not move in on specs yet as most of the playable rares and mythics still have room to drop. The Khans will rule for another four more months before the Dragons of Tarkir evict them in March 2015.

Well, most of the rares and mythics anyway. Khans of Tarkir Standard proved to be a reasonably diverse metagame. Just as we thought the Abzan and Mardu decks have established their grip on the Standard landscape, a different clan shook the status quo. Sidisi Reanimator, or Whipdisi for those who prefer a more kinky nomenclature, is not a new kid in town. The deck debuted at Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir in the hands of Christian Seibold who missed the cut to top 8 by one win. Seibold then top 8 Grand Prix Stockholm with the same list a few weeks later. The very next week Jund master Willy Edel ravaged through Grand Prix Santiago with Sidisi Reanimator only to have his hot run tragically ended by manascrew in the top 8. While Sidisi Reanimator possessed a phenomenal matchup against the creature-centric midrange decks, it fell out of favor and was relegated to the depths of tier two, surfacing only occasionally on Magic Online Daily Events.

Hail to the Queen

Sidisi, Brood Tyrant came back with a vengeance last weekend, taking down the Star City Games Open in Atlanta and making top 8 of Grand Prix San Antonio. The deck ripped through a field full of Abzan and Mardu midrange decks and turned Standard into Commander games. Sidisi Reanimator is well positioned in the current meta due to the fact that most creature decks find it difficult to handle a resolved Hornet Queen, let alone multiple recurrences of Hornet Queens with Whip of Erebos.

You can currently buy the Sultai Khan at $3.10, which is close to bulk mythic. For a mythic that sees play as a four-of in an archetype that is poised to be a tier one deck, $3 feels like the bottom or close to the bottom for Sidisi, Brood Tyrant.

Another reason to be bullish on Sidisi at $3 is the amount of love she has been getting from Commander players. Milling is perpetually popular with the Commander community and Sidisi is the ultimate self-mill commander, who by the way also churns out zombies (tribal fetish alert). Anyone following the Commander scene would have encountered a sheer number of articles written about Sidisi, Brood Tyrant as a commander since she was released. She is also in scoeri’s list of top fifty most played Commander (for the previous year). Granted, her position in the list could be down to the buzz of having a new Commander to tinker with, nevertheless it showed the amount of enthusiasm the Commander community have for Sidisi.

I have hopped on the Sidisi bandwagon myself and built a Sidisi deck. If I am not wrong, Sidisi, Brood Tyrant is the first tricolor self-mill commander, and the addition of green to a traditionally blue and black domain opened up a lot of intricate and awesome interactions the deck have access to. The design space for a Sidisi, Brood Tyrant deck is extremely deep, with a plethora of approach to building it (do you want go down the dredge path, or do you want to do a zombie tribal, or a mix of them both, or a Jund-like midrange deck). Every Sidisi, Brood Tyrant deck exudes its own flavor and I can personally attest that Sidisi, Brood Tyrant is a commander that is both a fun exercise in deck construction and is enjoyable to pilot.

Which brings us back to our original point: Sidisi, Brood Tyrant, a mythic rare that is the engine of a potentially tier one archetype and also a really fun commander to build around, is only $3. I would not go in super deep, but I like the idea of having a few playsets of Sidisi as she is about as low as playable mythics go. If Sidisi Reanimator keeps on posting results, her price would spike. Worse case scenario, if Sidisi Reanimator does not gain widespread adoption (an unlikely outcome in my opinion, seeing how well the deck is positioned against the creature-centric midrange meta Wizards has been not-so-subtly encouraging), Commander demand would drive her price higher than it is now once Khans of Tarkir stops being drafted.

While I am bullish on non-foil copies of Sidisi, I am less so for foil copies of the Sultai Khan, at least right now. I am confident that foil Sidisi will slowly inch up as with foils of popular commanders, but at $10 she still have room to drop. I would trade for foil copies of Sidisi over the next few months rather than buy them outright. Foil Sidisi is a long-term spec target with the aim of doubling or tripling up within a few years of Khans rotating out.

I have seen a lot of questions regarding the next two cards on the MTGFinance subreddit’s Weekly Ask MTGFinance Anything thread. While they are Standard-legal cards, the driver for their price stems from Modern and/or Legacy.

Laying Siege

The first card is Siege Rhino. What is the financial potential of non-foil and foil Siege Rhinos right now? Non-foil Siege Rhinos are on their way down as with most Khans of Tarkir cards due to the December price trough. I would not spec on them right now and I would only acquire them for my own use if I need them right now (Hey, I can finally afford to play Abzan). Siege Rhino still have some leeway to drop and it is okay to wait a month or two before moving in. Siege Rhino might also be reprinted in upcoming Clash Packs or Event Decks, ala Courser of Kruphix. Wizards has proven over and over again that they will reprint expensive Standard rares to make them more accessible.

The future of foil Siege Rhino is contentious. Foil Siege Rhino demands a hefty price tag due to the amount of play the card sees in Modern. While everyone was clamoring over the perceived warping power Treasure Cruise asserted on Modern, the first post-Khans Modern Grand Prix in Madrid featured more Siege Rhinos in the top 8 than Treasure Cruises. So did the subsequent Star City Games Premier Invitational Qualifier (but not last weekend’s though).

Siege Rhino is the best arsenal Abzan-based decks have against UR Delver and I suspect that played a role in the widespread adoption of Siege Rhino in Modern. If UR Delver were to drop from its current level of dominance, would Abzan and Pod decks still retain their Rhinos? Would Abzan still prefer Siege Rhinos over Dark Confidants in a meta with less Forked Bolt and Lightning Bolt?

Personally, I think those decks would still run a non-zero amount of Siege Rhino. Siege Rhino is the epitome of a value card: it is a Lightning Helix on an undercosted, trampling ⅘ body, exactly the kind of card Abzan and Pod decks love to play.There are not many cards in Modern that trades with Siege Rhino on parity. Regardless of the Delver threat, Siege Rhino is good enough to be included in Modern, I am just not sure if it would still be a four-of in a meta with a different bogeyman.

At $13, foil Siege Rhino has room to grow, but I am not keen on getting foil copies right now. I am inclined to wait and see if Treasure Cruise gets the ban come the Modern Pro Tour early next year.

The second card is Eidolon of the Great Revel. Many Redditors asked whether Eidolon’s price right now makes for a good buy-in. Eidolon of the Great Revel is on a downtrend after its double-spike over the summer and can be picked up today for $6.6.

**The Other Broken Red Two Drop**

Reveling in its new status as a Modern and Legacy staple.

Lets see, Eidolon of the Great Revel is a four-of auto-include in Modern and Legacy Burn and it comes from a small spring set (low supply alert). Eidolon has a slim chance of being reprinted anytime soon with its Nyx-ified border and ‘Enchantment Creature’ type unique to Theros. Is Eidolon of the Great Revel a good buy right now? You bet. The card has the hallmark of an eternal card poised for appreciation over the years. It is a good time now to secure your own playset and any extra playsets for investment. Modern Masters II is likely to come out next summer and it would instigate another wave of Modern players. Burn is a budget-friendly entry level deck into Modern and those new players would be looking for their Eidolon of the Great Revels. I am not a fan of waiting until rotation to pick Eidolons up; it seems to be a new trend for Modern staples to not buck in price upon rotation. See Snapcaster Mage and shocklands.

How about foil copies? Eternal players like to foil out their decks don’t they? I am afraid the cruise has left the port a long time ago for foil Eidolon of the Great Revel. If you did not acquire your copies back in June when it was $7 apiece, it is probably best to stay away from speculating on foil Eidolons. I do not think $30 is the ceiling for a foil Modern and Legacy staple from a small spring set, but I have no idea when foil Eidolons would make the next jump and there is a significant opportunity cost at its current buy-in price.

Speaking of Standard cards with Modern application, the last card we will be looking at in this article is another Modern staple with a surprisingly low price right now. I revved up my competitive Magic engine again two weekends ago after a six-month hiatus from competitive Magic, in anticipation for the upcoming PPTQ season. I decided to start out with Caleb Durward’s GR Bees which seemed well positioned against a creature-heavy, midrange-fest of a metagame. And also because I already own most of the cards and I would not have to spend a fortune on getting the cards in real life (for practice) and online (for more practice). When I was purchasing the missing components, I could not believe the price Chord of Calling was going at. I thought the shopkeeper must have got the price for the wrong card!

What Calls?

When I took a hiatus from competitive Magic back in June, Chord of Calling was a $40 Modern staple. Now Chord of Calling is just a $4 rare. While Chord of Calling is not as ubiquitous like Eidolon of the Great Revel, it remains an integral piece in Birthing Pod. Chord of Calling may be out of vogue in current Pod lists, but it was not too long ago in Pro Tour Born of the Gods where Jacob Wilson and co.’s Pod list ran three Chord of Calling.

It is a great time to buy into Chord of Calling now. It does not see much Standard play and has fallen out of favor in the current Modern meta, being a bit slow against Delver. Modern’s metagame is constantly in flux and Chord of Calling could easily be a $10 card (and that me being conservative with my prediction) before the end of next year, with a much higher long-term value.

ADVERTISEMENT: Don’t overpay for card sleeves: Save up to 46% off retail prices during the CheapCardSleeves Cyber Monday sale! Enjoy huge discounts on Ultra Pro, KMC, and Dragon Shield sleeves. If you’re looking to stock up on card sleeves, now is the time!

MTGPrice Blog

Thinking About Modern Masters II

Current Day Values

Current Metagame and Most Played Cards

What Does It All Mean?

Bad Owners, Bad Policies

Rare Redrafting

Shoddy buylisting/credit

Cheap play area

Arbitrary store owners/employees

Tolerating cheaters/bullies

Crazy Pricing

Legacy Hero #5

Picking Through Standard

Hail to the Queen

Laying Siege

**The Other Broken Red Two Drop**

What Calls?

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY