Casual Fridays

The Pattern of Growth

By: Cliff Daigle

In the past couple of weeks, I and others have shared with you some advice on Theros block cards that are likely to go up during Khans of Tarkir block this coming fall/winter.

We aren’t basing these cards on pure chance, but on a series of previous cards that have hit a low as their block ended, then rose during the next.

Let’s go over a few of these so you can see trends to look for. I’ll be using the initial price, the 9-month price, the 14-month price, and the 2-year price. We are almost to that two-year mark, and as we get closer, prices will go even lower as the card prepares to rotate out of Standard.

Remember, all you have to do is set the slider to look into a card’s financial past.

Jace, Architect of Thought
Initial: $40
9 months: $8
14 months: $25
2 years: $5

While this cards exemplifies the trend I’m talking about, it’s far from the only one. As a planeswalker, Jace 4.0 had a high initial and preorder price, which lowered over the course of the block. He was an easy pickup at $8, and when he spiked, there was a lot if money to be made.

Desecration Demon
Initial: $3
9 months: $3
14 months: $10
2 years: $2

Pack Rat
Initial: $1 or less
9 months: $1 or less
14 months: $6
2 years: $2

desc dem

Both of these cards, as well as Underworld Connections, benefited from the rise of black devotion decks, and the reach of Gray Merchant of Asphodel. Pack Rat was a bulk rare, notable only for how impossible it was to beat in Draft or Sealed formats. Demon’s price was often lower than $3 because of the tokens everywhere his first year, especially off of Lingering Souls.

When these two hit, they hit big. They are back to a low price now because there’s no home for them in Modern, and there isn’t enough casual appeal to maintain the high price. Remember, you always want to sell into the hype. Don’t get greedy. If your $2 card hits $7 on buylists, sell or trade them all. Don’t agonize over feeling like you might miss more profit–take your profit and be happy. Just look back at Jace, AoT. He spiked then trickled down for months.

Supreme Verdict
Initial: $5
9 months: $3
14 months: $8
2 years: $4

I don’t have a lot of money to speculate with. I prefer to trade, not purchase, but when I have a dozen that I traded for at $3 get to a buylist price of $5, that’s a really good feeling. There’s a chance this starts creeping back up, because Modern might utilize this over Wrath of God. Keep in mind that this was the buy-a-box promo, so the supply is slightly higher for casual players.

Domri Rade
Initial: $15
9 months: $10
14 months: $30
2 years: $9

Domri, as a three-drop planeswalker, has mountains to climb. Cheap ‘walkers can rarely protect themselves, but he can grind out advantages, and his interaction with Courser of Kruphix led to his abrupt spike. It’s amusing to me how much this and Xenagos both want to be in all-creature decks!

Nightveil Specter
Initial: $2
9 months: $2
14 months: $10
2 years: $3

This was another card that went crazy with the premiere of the Devotion mechanic. It fit into the mono-black AND the mono-blue lists, both of which surged in popularity, and are still among the top archetypes. Being the Release promo didn’t make a difference to the price at all, something to keep in mind when a card is spiking.

Notable about this card is that there was a window between devotion being spoiled and this card exploding. This is why spoiler season brings out all the speculators, for good or ill. Boros Reckoner hasn’t made the same sort of impact, mainly due to the colors. Blue wants Thassa to be a creature and Master of Waves to make lots of tokens. Black wants the biggest Gray Merchant of Asphodel effect. Red does have the Fanatic of Mogis interaction, but that hasn’t proven to be as strong.

Mutavault
Initial: $15
6 months: $35
1 year: $25

These last two cards, being part of Core Sets, have a shorter time in Standard, but the curve is apparent. Started low (especially for being a reprint of a $40 card) then got very high as all sorts of decks started including the best ‘man-land’ ever, and is trickling downwards as we near rotation. It sees some Modern and Legacy play, mainly in tribal decks, but not enough to justify too high a price.

It’s a tribute to the consistency of Temples and shocklands that three-color control decks would run a few of these, often as an answer to opposing Mutavaults, but wow. Colorless lands in a three-color deck!

Archangel of Thune
Initial: $30
6 months: $15
9 months: $35
One year: $15

arch thu

There has been a real rollercoaster on this card in the past year.  As a mythic of a very popular tribe, her price is never going to be very low, especially at a measly five mana. She spiked when control decks boarded her in, a threat that grows and gains you life, and tricks with Mutavault help too.

These are only a few examples. There are historical ones too, but we need to keep an eye on what Magic is now, especially in terms of the number of cards printed.

I hope this helps you think about and identify the same trend in Magic 2015 and Khans of Tarkir!

Casual Fridays

The Beginning of the Fall

By: Cliff Daigle

Welcome to Magic 2015!

Last week I went over some prices from this set, where I’d expect them to settle out.

This week, I want to note some current prices and start to track how fast they fall. They will almost all fall, because the release of a set will allow the mass cracking of packs, to fill preorders and stock inventory. Buylists also kick in, and let me say this clearly: if you open something amazing, trade it or buylist it ASAP. I opened a Sun’s Champion on release weekend and buylisted it for $25 cash.

So if you crack a Chain Veil, you’re going to get more for it this weekend than you are for quite a while. Trade it to that person who’s dying for it. Don’t be afraid to call it out in a store, seeking that person who wants it SO BAD!

Nissa, Worldwaker ($37) – The midweek spike on Nissa indicates that someone, or a group of someones, has decided that the preorder/prerelease price on her was too low. If this is due to testing for the Pro Tour in August, or some Standard combination of cards. (She is pretty amazing with shocklands…) We don’t know what the motivation is for this spike, but it’s happened very quickly, since the stock on this card is currently very low. We are about to get a lot more available, though, so unless she takes over quickly, her price will lower again.

Garruk, Apex Predator ($25) – The eBay price on this card has dropped about $10 in the past weeks, and at seven mana I don’t think he will be more than a two-of in decks that can play him. It is worth mentioning that in the right deck, Nissa can get Garruk out on turn four without working too hard. His price probably won’t go much below $20, from people who like playing lots of planeswalkers.

Ajani Steadfast ($15) – Here is the problem with this Ajani: at four mana, he requires others to protect him. Without other creatures, he is likely to die quickly and have no lasting effect on a game. His decline will be thorough, barring something very unusual.

Jace, the Living Guildpact ($12) – While this Jace isn’t quite as powerful as some of his brothers, his ultimate is something everyone wants to do. He starts at five loyalty, and it can go up to six immediately on turn four. That’s a lot of damage to do quickly, and if needed, his bounce is expensive but useful. Putting a card in a graveyard appears to be something that the next block will care about, so that sort of speculation will keep him from going more than a couple bucks cheaper.

Sliver Hivelord ($12) – The downward trend has begun for a card that was preordering at $15. I would expect to see the price climb a little as Sliver EDH players scramble this week to get their singleton, and after that demand is met, there’s nowhere to go but down.

Chord of Calling ($11) – Even if there’s a Standard deck that starts playing this, it’s a core set rare. There will be lots and lots of these in circulation, and it needs to be a rather ubiquitous card (like Mutavault this past year) for such cards to keep a price. It sees some Modern play, but probably not enough to see a price increase. It will get to $7-$10 before long.

Soul of New Phyrexia ($10) – Yes, it has a neat activated ability, but this is no Aetherling. To play it and keep the ability open is going to cost 11…and won’t protect from Banishing Light and the like. The price will drop by half.

Perilous Vault ($7) – I suspect that this card won’t go much lower. It’s too good and too scarce to stay in the $5 range. This will be the bane of many Commander games, but considering how easy it is to build a graveyard recursion deck, perhaps this is for the best.

Waste Not ($7) – Dump it now. This will be lucky to stay at $2.

Hushwing Gryff ($3) – Let me talk you out of hoarding this card, looking at it like it is Aven Mindcensor‘s second coming. The Aven is a $10 uncommon because of the set it was in and the number in circulation. We don’t get the specific numbers, but a Magic 2015 rare is probably lots and lots more common than a Future Sight uncommon, solely due to the number of cards printed and players who open packs. The Gryff is not going to hit $10 based on Modern appeal, and I don’t want to hear any more Mindcensor comparisons.

City of Traders

Unobtanium

5 Comments

By: Travis Allen

I started playing Magic in 1993 or 1994; I forget which. I was young, as most of us would have been back then. This was the era when people unironically spoke of uncles that worked for Nintendo and Sega and claimed knowledge of special cheat codes that would make the characters in Mortal Kombat strip off their clothes. We played Magic at lunch mostly. Unsleeved decks with wildly imbalanced mana:spell ratios. I’m positive the decks were of no particular size. Card selection rarely moved beyond “all my green cards and black cards.”

What was amazing about this time was the total lack of information. The term “big data” is thrown around so much at academic conferences these days that it’s become embarrassing to genuinely use the term. In 1993 though, you knew nothing beyond your local playgroup. On the rare occasion that someone somehow obtained more cards, perhaps receiving a single booster pack as part of their birthday gift, you poured over them eagerly excited to see what other pieces of this giant puzzle existed. It really was a sensation that is so difficult to capture these days. It’s probably why I enjoy Dark Souls so much. It captures much of the “I have no idea what is happening and I love it” sensation from days past.

To this day I find I carry a strong visceral reaction to certain cards. It’s difficult to describe. Leviathan is probably the single card that best captures my memories of the game. Looking at the image on magiccards.info doesn’t really do it for me. I need to hold the cardboard in my hand. Copies from The Dark work best. When I grasp that card and gaze into it, attempting to lose myself in it’s aesthetic, I experience flashes of nostalgia that I can’t get manage anywhere else. Sometimes it’s the white font against the blue background, readability not a part of the lexicon of design back then. Perhaps it’s the way the tail disappears back behind the lighthouse, perplexingly descending from the clouds in a manner incongruent with your expectations a giant sea creature. It may be the offset mana symbols due to less printing oversight or the contrast between the ancient frame and the faded black border.

Regardless of what element of the card catalyzes these flashes of buried nostalgia, I find myself drawn to the original border. It is an icon of days faded, forever imbued with character and design flaws and mystery. The new border is fine, yes. It’s cleaner, easier to read, and meshes better with advancing mechanics. But it will never have the mystique and history of the original border. Whenever people tell me they prefer the new border I always feel a little sad for them, halcyon memories of childhood inaccessible with a simple piece of cardboard.

The result of all of this is that I acquire foil old border cards wherever possible. They help capture part of the magic of Magic for me. Mixing the history of the original border with the luxury of foils is my favorite way to collect. When was the last time you saw a mint foil card from any of the old sets? They are brilliantly shiny in a way that new foils completely lack. Some of the most beautiful Magic cards in existence are old border foils. (Henceforth OBFs.)

Normally when a new set comes out I’ll scan the spoiler for reprints, see if they had an older printing, and grab foil copies where possible. Off the top of my head I’ve got full or partial sets of Lay of the Land, Ray of Revelation, Llanowar Elves, Lightning Bolt, Last Breath, Worldly Counsel, and Naturalize.

When M15 was spoiled my process was no different. As soon as I saw the painlands I took to TCGPlayer to scoop up my foil Apocalypse copies. Let me tell you, “painland” could not be more appropriate.

Capture

Oof. $30+ apiece for a land legal in Standard for a single year that I may never actually have the chance to put into play. The worst part of this is that they aren’t getting any cheaper. Ever.

Possibly the most rock-solid place to invest your MTG funbux are OBFs. They may not rise quickly or often, but it is virtually impossible for them to get cheaper. No matter the card, copies will be limited by today’s standards. If they’re reprinted, the new copies will be in a different border, placing no strain on the original copies. Heck, as we can see with the painlands, reprinting of old cards actually makes the foils rise. Suddenly those foil Apocalypse Battlefield Forges that were listed at $6 forever are Standard legal and worth $20+ apiece.

Nearly every OBF is a great pickup simply because they have nowhere to go but up. Have a playset of foil UZD Yavimaya Elders? Great, it’s worth $60. If they get judge promo’d know how much your set of UZD ones would be? $60. If they get printed at common in M16 know how much your set of UZD ones would be? $100+, easily.

Demand for OBFs is not rooted in playability, but collectability and luxury. People collect them because they’re beautiful and original and unique, not because they need them to play a tournament. M11 Lightning Bolts are a buck. The only OBF of the card is $250. This is really what makes them the bastion of value that they are. It would be incredibly difficult for Wizards to print something that would devalue these cards. You think the Onslaught foils of Flooded Strand and Polluted Delta are expensive now? Wait until they show up in a fall set.

All of this leads to a simple but painful conclusion. The best time to buy an OBF is now. Whether you’re reading that sentence on 7/23/14 when this article goes live or three years down the road in 2017, it is still accurate. This conclusion is painful because many of these cards are already astronomically expensive. Those ONS foil Flooded Strands are $300, but the fact of the matter is that they aren’t getting cheaper. If you want them, acquire them sooner than later. This time next year one of two things will be true. They’ll either still be $300, or they’ll be $500+ because they were announced for the fall set. The one thing that won’t happen is that they’ll be less than they are today. Maybe you’ll be in better economic standings next year so you decide to wait, but just remember that you’re playing chicken with a train that you can’t see coming.

The absolute best place to go of course is actual reserve list OBFs. Reserve list cards are already gold, and grabbing OBFs – of which by my quick and almost assuredly inaccurate count there are under thirty – is icing on the cake. Just start at the end of this list and work your way backwards. What are some of the best choices?

Replenish – EDH staple and Legacy combo piece. Just because it’s not busting Legacy open right now doesn’t mean it can’t down the road.

Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary – Absurdly powerful legendary creature in one of the most popular tribes of all time? Can’t go wrong.

Metalworker – Inspires entire combo decks in Legacy and enables shenanigans in EDH.

Academy Rector – Another dormant Legacy combo piece that’s also popular both in EDH and casual circles.

Palinchron – EDH staple and generator of infinite mana.

Grim Monolith – EDH staple, Legacy and Vintage busted mana acceleration.

Deranged Hermit – Possibly the wackiest OBF on the reserve list. He’s the godfather of a silly beloved tribe that will always have a place in the heart of a subset of players. 

Old border foils are some of the most visually striking and iconic cards in the game. Their supply is miniature and chances of price surges reasonable. If reprinted they will gain value, not lose it.The worst case scenario for any of them is that Wizards reprints them in the original border ala Timeshifted cards, but even in that case it would merely slow their growth, not decrease their value. If you’re like me and you love the look of old border foils, now is the time to start buying. It’s painful, but it’s only going to get worse.

Uncategorized

Weekend Update for 7/19/14

2 Comments

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Goblin Guide (Zendikar)
From $13.31 to $14.98 (12.55%)

Goblin Guide is one of the most aggressive one drops ever printed. A first turn Goblin Guide can take out a healthy amount of life. This is not even considered the life the opponent willingly sacrifices to play fetchands, shocklands, Thoughtseize or Gitaxian Probe.

Goblin Guide has become a format all star in decks that want to go from 20 to 0 as quickly as possible.

Recently a Rakdos Burn deck too first place in an SCG Modern Invitational Qualifier in Glendale. There are even another burn deck in the Top 8. Both decks ran a full four copies in the main deck.

It is also played in increasingly popular Boros Burn and straight Monored Burn decks in Modern.

Legacy has also seen the one mana 2/2 in heavy use. Red burn decks have been doing well recently with the addition of Eidolon of the Great Revel.

Mono-Red Burn has been seeing Top 8 performances in Legacy as well.

This is growth based upon increased real demand so I expect it to sustain itself and continue.

I would not be surprised to see this as a $20 card by the end of the year.

If you need a few copies you can still find copies of the Mirrodin Besieged Into the Breach Event Deck. It has two copies in there. You basically get the rest of the deck for free.

9. Dragonskull Summit (M13)
From $1.95 to $2.28 (16.92%)

The Modern Rakdos Burn deck did more than just bolster support for the Goblin Guides. The checklands are criminally underrated dual lands.

They are not as sexy as shocklands or fetchlands because they will not get you the mana you need on turn one.

They still deserve to be more than $2. You can use them just fine in Commander or any kitchen table game. I think the chances of them not being reprinted in a core set is just about nil. I would grab any you can find for under $2.

When they do come back to a core set you will see a bump like the pain lands and you can make a tidy profit. In the mean time you can run them in any of your noncompetitive decks (and several of your competitive decks as Rakdos Burn showed us.)

8. Furyborn Hellkite (M12)
From $2.53 to $2.99 (18.18%)

Is anyone using this dragon outside of Commander or casual Magic? Does it even matter?

It is a mythic rare dragon with a keyword that has already been reused once.

It is a seven drop that lands on the table with an audible thump.

Right now there is even an advantageous disparity in the value of the card. You have noticed it has shown up both in the winners and losers section of this column recently.

The vendors are willing to sell them to you for as low as $0.92. There is a buylist offering $1.50.

There is no excuse for it being less than $2 and less than $1 on a mythic rare dragon sounds like a solid deal to me.

7. Darksteel Forge (M14)
From $1.96 to $2.32 (18.37%)

Darksteel Forge is getting ready to rotate in September when Khans of Tarkir is released.

It is not being played in any competitive decks so why is it seeing an increase in price?

M15 brought with it a subset of cards that card about artifacts. One particular card that I know people are brewing with is Chief Engineer.

Mirrodin showed us what a disaster affinity for artifacts can be from a development standpoint. The ability to grant all of your creatures convoke is probably as close as we are going to get to seeing affinity in standard.

It makes all of your Ornithopters and Memnites (in Modern) into free Birds of Paradise in a heavy artifact deck.

Will it work? It hardly matters. All that matters is that someone is asking the question and playing with decklists.

This will be the best chance you have to out your Forges before rotation. Always sell into hype.

6. Cemetery Reaper (M12)
From $1.54 to $1.87 (21.43%)

Zombies, tokens, graveyard hate. Oh my! This is the casual trifecta. I love the fact that it makes 3/3 zombies for three mana.

I also love the fact that there is a buylist offering $1.00 when there is a vendor selling for $0.44.

At a dollar or less for a lord with a popular creature type you can hardly go wrong. You have your out.

5. Llanowar Wastes (10th Edition)
From $4.49 to $5.48 (22.05%)

We are going to see a lot of fluctuation in pain land prices over the next year. Most of the movement will be over the next week or two.

There is speculation that Tarkir will be a wedge block. That will mean that Llanowar Wastes could be needed to make Junk, BUG and RUG decks function.

If you have any lying around I hope you are selling them now.

At this point only more M15 is being opened and that will keep prices in check. We have been told that there is another dual land cycle coming out with Tarkir. I do not see a lot of pain lands being used while shocklands are available. After rotation we may have something else worth playing with.

Sell while the prices are high.

4. Ad Nauseam (Shards of Alara)
From $3.82 to $4.85 (26.96%)

I have a soft spot for crazy combo cards. Ad Nauseam lets you draw as much as you want to at instant speed for as much life as you are willing to pay.

The power of Ad Nauseam is tempered by the fact you have to build your deck around it. There are still several powerful storm decks that make use of it.

The SCG Modern Invitational Qualifier in New Holland earlier this month featured an Ad Nauseam deck in the Top 8.

Legacy also has a few decks with it including ANT and TES.

This card is an essential piece of the decks in question and I would gladly trade for any. A few more Top 8s and this could be a $10 card.

3. Legion Loyalist (Gatecrash)
From $2.01 to $2.65 (31.84%)

Legion Loyalist is used in standard Red Deck Wins and budget casual goblin decks that do cannot afford Goblin Guide.

I do not see why it is getting a bump with mere months left in standard but I would sell out now.

Buylists are still purchasing them for up to $1.65 which is more than the $1.45 that some vendors are asking.

This card has a hard ceiling ahead of it so this is probably the best out you are going to get before they become bulk rares.

2. Galerider Sliver (M14)
From $1.89 to $2.60 (37.575)

Few slivers are good enough to be played outside of sliver decks. Galerider Sliver is one of them. Sometimes it is played in Mono-Blue Devotion in standard.

A 1/1 that flies for a single blue mana is pretty decent. It is fantastic when it is giving your sliver legion evasion.

A lot of people are looking at the new slivers and asking if they can finally have a sliver deck in standard.

The only important thing you need to be worried about is that they will try the deck out.

I would sell these away into the excitement but I would not worry too much if you don’t manage to move everything.

Slivers are a casual favorite so even if you have a few lying around there is almost always someone who is looking for what you have. I have gone through more Muscle Slivers and Winged Slivers in the past year than I ever would have guessed.

1. Battlefield Forge (9th Edition)
From $3.42 to $5.13 (50.00%)

The pain lands have found new life with M15. Everyone is looking for lands to replace their shocklands come rotation.

I like Battlefield Forge best out of the lot of them. An aggressive deck does not mind sacrificing a few points of life for mana consistency.

Boros Burn is the exact kind of deck that would prefer to do that rather than wait a turn and scry. It can also regain the life with a Warleader’s Helix.

Battlefield Forge is also one of the few enemy pain lands that sees play in modern. Everyone knows about Shivan Reef but Battlefield Forge is also picking up momentum in modern Boros Burn.

If you are going to be trading non-Izzet enemy pain lands these are the ones I would concentrate on.

I think they will hit their ceiling right after rotation when aggressive decks are at their peak.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Woodfall Primus (Shadowmoor)
From $6.13 to $5.37 (-12.40%)

Woodfall Primus is a casual and commander favorite.

He is a big fatty that is tough to kill and gets rid of pesky noncreature permanents like Planeswalkers or equipment.

He was reprinted in Modern Masters last year and took a hit. He is still suffering from that but I think he is nearing his floor. I would try to trade for them around $5 for some of those enemy painlands everyone is going to be opening for the next few months.

4. Elvish Piper (M10)
From $9.10 to $7.87 (-13.52%)

I remember using Elvish Piper to cheat out Thorn Elemental, Ancient Silverback and other fatties that have not aged nearly as well. It is still a popular inclusion in commander, cubes and any casual green deck with forests.

It has been printed a half dozen times and it can be printed in any core set that wants it.

There is also some potential to make some profits. You can get them for as little as $6.30 from vendors and sell them for up to $7.10.

3. Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth (Planar Chaos)
From $26.27 to $22.57 (-14.08%)

M15’s reprint of the legendary land is causing it to sink like a rock. Does standard really need mana fixing that smooth?

Eternal formats make good use of Urborg. Modern players use it in The Rock, BG, 8 Rack, Monoblack Infect and a host of Gifts variants.

Legacy uses it to do broken things with Dark Depths in Junk Depths and 4 Color Loam.

There is still a chance to make some money. You can buy them for as low as $17.94 and sell them for as much as $20.47.

This may be the only money to be made since it will take a while for the price to recover.

2. Lifebane Zombie (M14)
From $4.79 to $4.10 (-14.41%)

This zombie is taking a hit. It had a pretty good standard hey day with Monoblack Devotion, Orzhov and Golgari midrange decks that used it to preemptively deal with Blood Baron of Vizkopa or Polukranos, World Eater.

Fortunately it will not drop to bulk rare. It has seen some play as a sideboard card in Modern BG and Orzhov decks.

I would still try to trade them away as quickly as you can.

1. Pulmonic Sliver (Time Spiral)
From $4.68 to $3.63

Poor Pulmonic Sliver. It had such a unique and powerful effect for a five mana sliver.

One of the biggest weaknesses of sliver decks is that they depend on flooding the battlefield with creatures. This makes them susceptible to Supreme Verdict or Damnation. Pulmonic Sliver would help you rebuild.

Now for the same five mana you can just make your slivers indestructible. If your opponent plays Day of Judgment you can laugh all the way to the red zone.

Even the flying is not as impressive with Galerider Sliver coming down on the first turn.

There is still a bright side.

Vendors are now selling them as low as $0.75 and buying them for as much as $2.25. That will bring a smile to anyone’s face.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY