Magic Online Sucks Part Two

June 10, 2014 Camden Clark 12 Comments

By; Camden Clark

Today, I could have talked about the Modern PTQ season and cards to pick to capitalize on it.

However, there is an issue far more pressing than the Modern PTQ season.

Not only were this but the issues I outlined in the article I wrote last week barely scratched the surface of the issues. I feel obligated to go deeper on the many issues with the Magic Online BETA and, more importantly, how this affects everyone who is investing in Magic at all.

Without further ado:

The Beta Part Two

I touched on the trading issues but the magnitude here is huge.

The beta makes trading between players more complicated and impossible. With the introduction of the “trade binder” system, the Magic Online developers had an opportunity to code an “auction house” or a way to seek out other players who have matching haves and wants in order to be able to support the economy. The old client’s infrastructure of merely marking cards as “tradable” made this infrastructure impossible.

This opportunity was missed and thus the economy defaults to the limiting economy of the bots. However, few bots can work on the beta. The bots drive the economy of Magic Online. They make everything tick. If the infrastructure cannot support bots, the economy suffers.

The beta makes trying to find a game ridiculously complex with a system that is both inefficient and worse than the old one. I appreciated the old categorization system that allowed easy access to the room with Scheduled Events, one for Limited Events, etc. There was a simplicity that made it easy to find a game.

The new system is contrived and confusing. It is the kind of system that makes you wonder, “How could this be designed so poorly?”

As an aside, it is extremely embarrassing that Magic Online still does not have a Mac version. Although this does not affect me personally there are many players who would appreciate a Mac version. The beta ignores this and furthers the issues by being based on Visual Basic (a Microsoft program) which will cause inevitable issues in a transition to Mac.

The failure of the beta to address any of the underlying issues is not only the current developer’s faults. I honestly think it is the underlying infrastructure that causes this. It begs the question:

Why was Magic Online created in the first place?

Magic Online failed from its inception to recreate the fun of interacting with other players to play the same game. The token trading and classifieds system incentivized the creation of bots to drive the economy. There was no underlying infrastructure to allow easy trade between humans. None of the…magic of paper Magic exists on Magic online, except the game itself.

The logical conclusion is that Magic Online exists merely for players that are serious about the game and just want to grind against other competitive players.

The infrastructure is well set up for this: bots allow players to purchase cards at insulting upmarks and Wizards sanctioned tournaments allow the best players to shine.

However, there are so many inefficiencies in the programming that these growth problems were inevitable. When you have thousands in a tournament and your code is poor there will be problems.

It has hit this ceiling. The beta client attempts to paint over these problems with flashier graphics but misses the point that there are issues in the underlying infrastructure. Since the beta must connect with the old client it means the underlying infrastructure is still there. That does not just go away.

The beta should have scrapped that baseline and figured out a way to transfer the cards over to the new system. It would suck and be annoying at first but at least they would be doing something. The developers have dug themselves into such a deep hole with this it seems there is no way out.

That does not excuse the…

Insults

The handling of Magic Online’s issues has been insulting at best.

I think the easiest description of WOTC’s indifference to the issues is the simultaneous release of a new product, Vintage Masters, while cancelling the entire PTQ season.

Really? I mean…REALLY?!

Vintage Masters looks like a good product. R&D is WOTC’s strong suit and I have no doubt it will be a very fun set to draft. Nevertheless, it is insulting to cancel ALL Pro Tour Qualifiers for the upcoming season at the same time as releasing a new product.

That shows WOTC does not care about returning service that the competitive players want and use Magic Online for. They only care about getting the product that people will pay seven dollars (7!!!) a booster for.

That, is insulting.

If Magic Online was created to serve a more competitive crowd, it fails tremendously. Once you cancel PTQs on Magic Online, what is the point? It exposes Magic Online as being a cash grab for WOTC.

People spend so much money getting Modern decks online. They spend more money on Daily Events to prepare for the PTQs that should be online. Even the cheapest of the Modern decks are still hundreds of dollars. If you want to play Jund you will be paying about a thousand dollars.

Prices will catastrophically drop with this news. It will be immensely hard to sell cards back to the bots at even a small fraction of the price.

The players are getting alienated. PTQs used to run, at least. Now there is nothing but the Daily Events and the draft room.

Not only were the PTQs cancelled but the MOCS finals were cancelled as well. Many players grind Magic Online just to get QPs (qualifier points) just to get into the MOCS tournament which has a very good payout. With these cancelled, there is no reason for these people to play Magic Online more.

The vision of Magic Online was to allow for people who did not live near a local PTQ to be able to go into a major event and have that opportunity. You could also participate in a few of the Magic Online PTQs to be able to play at that competitive level outside of local events. That is all gone now.

Magic Online has failed in every respect to accomplish anything and is an insult to anyone who supports WOTC.

The Economic Effects

This obviously has many implications for the wider world of MTG finance.

Modern PTQs will not run which means that there will be no event reports that show the best decks on Magic Online. That removes a HUGE gap in the potential information we had to invest on. We are entirely dependent on local PTQ results which may or may not reflect the wider metagame.

Many of the potential opportunities are gone. Whether you like it or not, Magic Online is where all of the professional players come to test their decks and play in PTQs. As more and more players lose their faith in Magic Online it will lose its importance. There will not be as much data for us to scour.

We are already seeing the effects on Magic Online itself. Past in Flames has dropped by 5 dollars. The economy cannot support being tested like this.

It shows in real life too. WOTC looks inept. The situation is embarrassing. There is a general low morale for anyone who has ever booted up Magic Online.

Conclusion

It is really a shame what has developed on Magic Online. There is no end in sight to the problems.

There is no timeline for a full switch to the beta. There is no timeline for the resumption of MOCS and PTQs. There is no timeline for a Mac client.

The only timeline we have is the release of the cash cow Vintage Masters.

That should be eye-opening to how WOTC really feels about Magic Online.

There is no outreach. The “community outreach” people for Magic Online fail to acknowledge the glaring issues with the infrastructure or provide a solution to them.

The players on Magic Online are not valued by WOTC. They can release anything and people would buy it. Drafts will continue to fire. People will continue to invest thousands into Modern, Standard, and Legacy decks. Why do they do that? Because they love the game. Not because Magic Online is worth anything.

I am going to stop with the Magic Online articles for now. I hope to revisit at a time when there is good news to talk about. I am not optimistic. I don’t see an out for the developers to create a better client. We were screwed from the start.

The Gilded Goblin

King of the Buylists

June 9, 2014 Jared Yost 1 Comment

By: Jared Yost

It was a great disservice to many when I excluded Card Kingdom from my buylist data crunch article, so I decided to gather the buylist data from their website for uncommons, rares, and mythics legal in Modern in order to compare them to the other Modern buylists that MTGPrice tracks.

I will also list out the TCGPlayer updated information I was able to calculate based on the 8.5% TCGplayer fee + a PayPal / credit card processing fee of approximately 3%. Hopefully this will paint a more realistic picture of the costs associated with buylisting and selling on TCGPlayer.

I also want to mention shipping costs, which can be significant over time depending on the volume of cards you are buylisting or selling. It usually costs about $2 to ship a padded envelope First Class USPS. This is what I find myself shipping the majority of the time if I am buylisting something. If you include insurance your mileage will vary, but if you are sending hundreds of dollars of cards to a buylist you may want to consider adding insurance to the shipping cost. If we add insurance it would come to approximately $1.65 for every $100 worth of cards that we ship. If we assume that the average buylist shipment is about $200 per shipment, that’s another $3.30 we need to account for insurance if we are including that. That comes to about $5.30 to ship a package, whether that is to an eBay / TCGPlayer user or to a buylist.

It is hard to account for shipping concretely in my calculations – how often are you actually spending $5.30 to ship something? If I used that number and tried to calculate a percent earned after paying for shipping it wouldn’t look realistic at all. There are ways to reduce your shipping costs by introducing risk but that’s not something I’m looking to get into right now. Just as an example, maybe all you need is $0.49 to ship a plain white envelope (PWE) with the cards in it. I’ve done this plenty of times on eBay and have never had an issue. For buylists this is the same, if you are only sending a handful of cards. It all comes down to trust in the system yet I think you should err on the safe side and think about getting insurance if that handful of cards starts climbing past three digits.

Before I list the updated data, some notes about the Card Kingdom data set:

I’ve only included Card Kingdom and the market competitors in this data set. If you want to see my first data set for the other vendors TCGPlayer tracks, please see my first article on this topic.
I’ve updated the TCGPlayer % Loss to account for their fees and Payal’s fees for selling through TCGPlayer.
I’ve decided to leave out commons for this one – the numbers last time were so abysmally low that I didn’t think it was worth it for me to gather the data from Card Kingdom for them. If you think otherwise, leave me a comment and I can update the article to include common information.

Now, the updates:

MYTHIC
Vendor	Average	Total Buying	Sum Total Prices	Median	Mode	% Buying	Avg * Buy%	% Loss Total	Real eBay/TCG Total	Real eBay/TCG Loss	% Loss Total Update
Fair	$9.41	324	$3,048.12	$5.56	$1.30	n/a	n/a	0.00%	n/a	n/a	0.00%
eBay	$7.86	324	$2,546.42	$4.50	$0.99	100.00%	7.86	-16.46%	$2,189.92	-28.16%	-28.16%
TCGPlayer	$7.10	323	$2,292.86	$3.51	$0.60	99.69%	7.08	-24.78%	$2,029.18	-33.43%	-33.43%
Card Kingdom	$5.62	307	$1,726.92	$2.50	$3.00*	94.75%	5.33	-43.34%	n/a	n/a	-43.34%

*Only 10 mythics on Card Kingdom’s buylist were at $3 – like ABU and other large vendors, they have a very diverse buylist for mythics since they are buying 307 mythics.

RARE
Vendor	Average	Total Buying	Sum Total Prices	Median	Mode	% Buying	Avg * Buy%	% Loss Total	Real eBay/TCG Total	Real eBay/TCG Loss	% Loss Total Update
Fair	$2.83	2752	$7,800.37	$0.71	$0.38	n/a	n/a	0.00%	n/a	n/a	0.00%
eBay	$2.62	2746	$7,206.26	$1.00	$0.99	99.78%	2.61	-7.62%	$6,197.38	-20.55%	-20.55%
TCGPlayer	$2.02	2741	$5,548.69	$0.42	$0.25	99.60%	2.01	-28.87%	$4,910.59	-37.05%	-37.05%
Card Kingdom	$1.62	2063	$3,348.43	$0.26	$0.05	74.96%	1.21	-57.07%	n/a	n/a	-57.07%

UNCOMMON
Vendor	Average	Total Buying	Sum Total Prices	Median	Mode	% Buying	Avg * Buy%	% Loss Total	Real eBay/TCG Total	Real eBay/TCG Loss	% Loss Total Update
Fair	$0.44	3016	$1,325.46	$0.21	$0.17	n/a	n/a	0.00%	n/a	n/a	0.00%
eBay	$1.14	3002	$3,428.58	$0.99	$0.99	99.54%	1.13	158.67%	$2,948.58	122.46%	122.46%
TCGPlayer	$0.24	2985	$724.00	$0.10	$0.10	98.97%	0.24	-45.38%	$640.74	-51.66%	-51.66%
Card Kingdom	$0.34	641	$217.98	$0.09	$0.05	21.25%	0.07	-83.55%	n/a	n/a	-83.55%

NON-COMMON
Vendor	Average	Total Buying	Sum Total Prices	Median	Mode	% Buying	Avg * Buy%	% Loss Total	Real eBay/TCG Total	Real eBay/TCG Loss	% Loss Total Update
Fair	$2.00	6092	$12,173.95	$0.39	$0.17	n/a	n/a	0.00%	n/a	n/a	0.00%
eBay	$2.17	6072	$13,181.26	$1.00	$0.99	99.67%	2.16	8.27%	$11,335.88	-6.88%	-6.88%
TCGPlayer	$1.42	6049	$8,565.88	$0.23	$0.10	99.29%	1.41	-29.64%	$7,580.80	-37.73%	-37.73%
Card Kingdom	$1.75	3011	$5,293.33	$0.24	$0.05	49.43%	0.86	-56.52%	n/a	n/a	-56.52%

Card Kingdom Compared to the MTGPrice Vendors

Adding Card Kingdom to the average buylist graph shows us that it is indeed a competitive market player. They offer a higher mythic buy price on average than ABU, which was previously the vendor that offered the highest average. They also are very competitive on pretty much all non-common cards as well by offering 0.86 on average based on the amount of cards they buy versus ABU’s 0.85 average. A slight edge, but still significant in the big picture since it means that they buy just about the same amount of cards as ABU but generally offer higher prices on those cards.

Here again we can see that Card Kingdom has a ton of cards on their buylist compared to the other vendors. Like ABU, they have an exceptional amount of mythic rares on their buylist and have a demanding want list. Card Kingdom slightly eeks out the edge with 307 mythics versus ABU’s 293 mythics. They also buy about the same number of rares as ABU, only behind them by 24 rares.

One thing Card Kingdom lacks is Uncommons – even going through the buylist manually collecting the data I could see this. For many Modern sets, Card Kingdom only looks for about 5 to 6 commons from each set. They clearly must have a lot of uncommons in stock that they want to sell or another reason they aren’t actively buying uncommons from players. Looking at the graph you can see this, but citing the numbers they only want 641 uncommons versus ABU’s 794 and CFB’s 888. For uncommons, it is more hit or miss for Card Kingdom than other big store buylists.

I’m going to skip showing the Median and Mode buylist by vendor as I’ve realized that they can be misleading, especially considering the variety of prices that the big box vendors offer. So I will skip right to the percent loss.

Here we’ll want to look at TCGPlayer and Card Kingdom since I’ve updated the TCGPlayer loss to account for the fees just like eBay. Compared to the old data, accounting for fees you are losing -37.73% rather than the -29.64% than I had originally indicated – this is a pretty huge oversight on my part! That’s another 8% loss that I didn’t originally account for and really makes a difference when you also consider shipping and possibly insurance. It helps bolster the argument that when you buylist something, you don’t have to wait to sell them to get your cash – time is money after all and we’ve just found out that TCGPlayer isn’t quite as profitable as previously indicated.

eBay hasn’t changed unfortunately, which is because of the absurdly high averages for uncommons I was getting since MTGPrice was probably also including sold playsets in their calculations for a fair eBay price. That and I failed to account for other factors like listing fees, (which only really happen for big time sellers who have more than 50 listings per month) shipping, and shipping insurance if the order required it. I’ll talk about shipping more in the next section since I didn’t really know how to integrate this into my current data set.

Shipping

Now I’d like to talk about how shipping factors into all this. There are several options you can pursue for shipping, some of which I mentioned above:

$2 for a 3oz padded envelope package through USPS First Class mail. This is to anywhere in the US if you are mailing within the US.
For those who are international, I’ve heard that $6 is the average cost to ship something to the US – this is eating further into any profits you might make if you decide to buylist cards to American shops.
Shipping insurance. For USPS First Class mail that’s about $1.65 per $100 worth of value. Internationally USPS offers insurance up to $2500, which could be up to $24 to insure – I’m not sure if other countries offer similar rates but I would assume that the USPS would base this on a global metric.
PWE for $0.50

Which option is best for a buylist? I’ve had success with mailing 3oz padded envelopes to vendors like ABU and Card Kingdom on several occasions without an issue. I’ve fit entire tournament packs stuffed with cards into these envelopes and the USPS has shipped them, no issue. When I had packages valuing $200 or more, I bought the insurance which was about $4 more for shipping and gave me peace of mind. I would recommend this approach for buylists because generally you will want to send them a ton of cards at the same time in order to collect a big payoff quickly from any financial opportunities you’ve had. Using a padded envelope in addition to insurance will allow you to send off these larger packages without leaving too much on the table – trust me, losing $200 in the system once is enough to make you want to get insurance forever. Please don’t be that guy!

I’ve also shipped $0.50 envelopes when someone won an eBay auction where I was selling something. I think I even sent a playset of Jace, Architect of Thought this way without an issue. Obviously this was a huge risk I was taking on my part but I wanted to discover for myself just how big of an issue it was to ship with PWE’s – never had a problem so far but I always seem to hear horror stories from people. In my experience if you are only selling a playset of a card then I would ship in a PWE and not worry much about it but make sure you get insurance if you are selling something like a foil Snapcaster Mage or a playset of Thassa’s. At least you could do that to save a few bucks on a padded envelope and extra shipping for that envelope through the USPS.

The guideline I follow is ship lower cost items cheaply so that you save on shipping costs. PWE’s for any uncommons or other random rares you may sell in playsets is fine and it will hardly eat into your profits like the eBay or TCGPlayer fees would. Buy better packaging for larger orders or pricy cards (think dual lands or other Legacy staples) and include insurance if it starts getting up past $200 or more. I’ve done this so far without a hitch and I can say I’m quite happy with the approach.

Last Word

Hopefully my inclusion of Card Kingdom has shown that they are also competitive in the buylist world and go toe to toe with ABU on mythics and the amount of cards that they buy. Once MTGPrice adds more card sources to their data set, including potentially European or other international sources, it will only further help us all understand where to better focus our efforts when buylisting.

Maybe I’m missing something simple but shipping seems hard to include in the dataset without greatly skewing the numbers the more I think about it. It could be included but I would need more time to think about specific rules and scenarios of when to use and not use shipping insurance and how to calculate the risk of a PWE versus a padded envelope with the insurance. Jason might be able to chime in here since I’m sure he has way more experience in this realm than me. At the very least, you’ve all read about my experience with shipping and can take it as you will. I wanted to talk about it though because it is a real cost that sometimes gets forgotten in the excitement of buylisting something for higher than you bought or traded.

Uncategorized

Weekend Update for 6/7/14

June 7, 2014 1 Comment

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Celestial Colonnade (Worldwake)
From $20.35 to $22.35 (9.8%)

Is everyone ready for Modern season?

UWR Control and Midrange decks have been very prolific in the meta recently. 4 Color Gifts and UWR Twin decks have also adopted play sets of Colonnade main deck.

This card works as mana fixing and a finisher that dodges sweeper cards like Supreme Verdict. Usually a land that enters the battlefield tapped has a minor upside like 1 life or Scry 1. The ability to turn into a Serra Angel is nothing short of incredible.

You can attack with it and leave up mana for a Spell Snare or Path to Exile.

I would trade these away happily.

These are much easier to reprint in Standard or a supplemental product than Fetchlands.

9. Privileged Position (Ravnica)
From $13.80 to $15.38 (11.5%)

Commander and Casual players do not like it when you mess with their stuff.

Once you have built up enough mana for an Eldrazi or Kor Spiritdancer loaded with auras the last thing you want is a removal spell destroying all of your hard work.

This has been a steady gainer for a long time but I would not expect indefinite gains. The name and mechanics are generic enough to fit into any set or product that Wizards feels it can be used in.

I see nothing against getting a few to trade to Commander players but I would not go in much further than that

8. Pact of Negation (Modern Masters)
From $8.90 to $9.95 (11.8%)

You can never go wrong with a free counterspell. It protects combos and vital pieces of your board. Play it once and your opponent will always wonder if you have one in your hand.

The Pacts were printed in Modern Masters but it has been a year and prices are once again returning to starting to climb back up.

I think this is a card poised to make a vital return at a key moment in upcoming PTQ coverage.

Currently it is used in Ad Nauseam, Amulet of Vigor and even a UR Possibility Storm deck. I expect it will see wider adoption within the next few months.

7. Shivan Reef (10^th Edition)
From $8.22 to $9.19 (11.8%)

Modern Storm decks do not have the luxury of waiting for lands that enter the battlefield tapped. They need their fixing and they need it now.

Shivan Reef is seeing play alongside Steam Vents, Sulfur Falls and Scalding Tarns. That is good company to be in.

It has been printed several times and Storm is an infamously complex deck to play. I don’t think players will support it in enough numbers to keep this price where it is.

It is approaching the price of Shocklands and that does not seem sustainable.

6. Sylvan Caryatid (Theros)
From $6.36 to $7.64 (20.1%)

This card is well positioned come rotation. It plays defense, fix and accelerates your mana without giving your opponent the potential to set you back a turn with a Shock.

It can help you power out a turn three Reaper of the Wilds, Eidolon of Blossoms or Polukranos, World Eater.

It is already a heavy lifter in Standard and I don’t expect that to go away any time soon.

The only unfortunate thing about it is that it was a rare in a heavily drafted set and it was a promo. I think it will approach $10 but I don’t think it will be able to do much better than that.

5. Sigil of the Empty Throne (Conflux)
From $5.00 to $6.07 (21.4%)

I know people have been brewing both Monowhite and Azorius Prison decks with Sigil as the finisher.

Journey into Nyx got a lot of people discussing Constellation. I don’t know if Nyx-Fleece Ram is good enough to buy time but I am sure someone is testing it.

Legacy has also been experimenting with a Selesnya Enchantress deck that runs Sigil as a high end finisher.

This card has gotten a lot of attention recently and I would trade into the hype.

4. Courser of Kruphix (Born of the Gods)
From $13.14 to $16.30 (24.0%)

Courser of Kruphix is the hottest thing in Standard. Pretty much any deck with green mana wants to play the full four. You get card advantage just for running it in the same deck as lands.

You can combine it with Domri Rade for even more hilarity.

Eidolon of Blossoms loves the fact that is it an enchantment.

Opposing aggressive decks packed with two power creatures for one mana hate it. Burn decks resent the incidental life gain that adds up over the course of a game.

It is even being used in Modern Jund and 4 Color Gifts decks.

The one big question is if it can break the $20 glass ceiling for rares.

As much as I love this card I don’t see a lot of room for it to grow. If you want to turn it into cash you will not be leaving a lot of money on the table.

You won’t regret holding onto them either. It is very well positioned for rotation as shown by the variety of Theros block decks that pack the full four. I expect it to keep its new price tag for the rest of its time in Standard.

3. Seizan, Perverter of Truth (Champions of Kamigawa)
From $3.31 to $4.08 (26.3%)

Nekusar, the Mindrazer has breathed new life into a lot of group hug cards.

Giving away cards is usually a good way to pacify your opponents but the Mindrazer also makes it a great way to kill them.

Seizan, Perverter of Truth is supposed to give everyone a free Night’s Whisper each turn but with your Commander out it is at least a Harrowing Journey for your opponents if not worse.

His flavor makes him difficult to reprint outside of supplemental Products.

I would happily trade him to anyone fine tuning their Nekusar deck.

If you find your play group looking for a good way to deal with the influx of Nekusar decks I would suggest Omen Machine. It turns their Commander into a Pillarfield Ox and lets everyone else play their spells for free. It is a bulk rare and easy to slide into any Commander deck.

2. Slaughter Pact (Modern Masters)
From $3.19 to $4.08 (27.9%)

Free spells are always handy and free removal is no exception. Any Modern deck that has black mana should at least be asking if they want to run this spell.

Jund, Melira Pod and even Amulet of vigor and a host of other decks use it to keep Twin decks at bay.

Anyone who is experimenting with the format due to the release of the Modern Event Deck will also be looking for this card.

This is exactly the kind of card I would want to have in my binder to trade to Modern players.

1. Garruk Relentless (Innistrad)
From $3.75 to $5.22 (39.2%)

The fact that this is a double sided planeswalker makes it unique and unlikely to ever be reprinted.

Modern has been toying with it in Junk midrange and it even sees play in the sideboard of Legacy Nic-Fit decks.

It has a home in Commander decks that play both black and green so there will always be some demand.

I think that this is a pretty safe investment in the long run with some potential growth in the short run if any of the decks that use it take off.

I would not actively try to seek them out but I would happily trade for them from players that were have stock left over from last year’s rotation.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Krenko, Mob Boss (M13)
From $4.85 to $4.46 (-8.0%)

Goblins will always be a popular choice in casual formats of all kinds. They are one of the oldest and most aggressive tribes in every format they populate.

Krenko is not a goblin lord but he does play very well with them. He is four mana so he is sitting on the top of the curve of playable goblins.

He does see play on both Modern and Legacy Goblin decks but normally only as one or two copies.

He has demonstrated slow but consistent growth since he rotated and I expect that to continue.

I think this was just a hiccup.

4. Deus of Calamity (Shadowmoor)
From $2.90 to $2.52 (-13.1%)

Duel Deck: Heroes vs Monsters reprinted this card and that is where things get interesting.

You can now pick up the new version of this card for $0.99.

This has led to several sites underselling the original card. It actually has a negative spread right now.

You can find copies as low as $1.49 and buylist them for $1.51.

This is not going to make you a lot of money but it shows that there is an underlying confidence in this card.

Any time you can buy a card at or below buylist is an amazing opportunity.

Look for these in trade binders.

3. Steel Hellkite (Scars of Mirrodin)
From $1.70 to $1.41 (-17.1%)

Here is another glitch in the Matrix. The current Beta is a slightly negative spread.

People are treating this like a bulk rare when it gets played in Legacy MUD.

It is only played as a single copy but it still sees play.

It is also compatible with any Commander deck and it is a dragon for the casual crowd.

Do not be fooled. I would get in on these.

2. Spirit Mantle (M12)
From $2.56 to $2.00 (-21.9%)

I love this card. It is exactly the kind of uncommon I like to see when I purchase “bulk” from people.

Did you know you can buylist them for $1.50?

Most people see an uncommon and assume it is $0.25.

You can even find copies online for $1.35 as I type this.

If free money does not interest you then maybe Modern Hexproof decks do. Several of them are trying this out in the deck.

I think you could be in a lot worse place than sitting on a small stack of these while the Pro Tour is focused on Modern.

1. Echo Mage (Rise of the Eldrazi)
From $0.93 to $0.68 (-26.9%)

Commander 2013 has really shaken up a lot of prices. It giveth but sometimes it taketh away.

Echo Mage was included in Commander 2013 in the Mind Seize deck. Everyone pillaged it for True-Name Nemesis and Baleful Strix and converted the rest to a Nekusar deck.

Unfortunately Echo Mage does not belong in a Nekusar deck. You need to invest a total of nine mana before you can copy a Winds of Change or Burning Inquiry. Almost all of that is blue which can be quite demanding on a three colored deck.

It is quickly becoming bulk and I do not see any reason for it not to.

Casual Fridays

Targets of a Conspiracy

June 6, 2014 Cliff Daigle 2 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

We have the full spoiler, and it’s a doozy!

Sure, there are some splashy mythics and some high-dollar cards, as well as reports that Conspiracy will be a more limited set than we believe. Wizards is notoriously tight-lipped when it comes to numbers, but it seems likely that we’ll get a big burst at first, followed by a second wave not long after. They know Conspiracy is competing with Journey into Nyx, I don’t believe they want it competing with Magic 2015 in mid-July.

Conspiracy appears to be a small event, this might well be the trial balloon. Is there a market for a product like this? It might be the closest Wizards gets to an official paper Cube product. Just like with Modern Masters, there’s value when things are unique. If you can get a box anywhere near MSRP, grab it and put it away. We’ve seen what sealed product can do over time and while it takes time to appreciate, it’s a very safe investment.

This weekend, there are release events for the set, often as draft-till-you-drop-or-we-run-out sort of things. I always love serial drafting, and in a set that’s designed to tweak the draft experience, this is going to be a lot of fun. And afterwards, the second level of fun with the leftover cards: trading.

So what should you be trading for at events this weekend?

Conspiracy-Watermarked Foils

This covers everything from the Cogwork Spy to the Deal Broker, as well as the Conspiracies themselves. Any of these cards I’m going to be chasing HARD in foil. I strongly believe this is a long-term growth set of cards, because the effect is so unique and it’s going to be quite a while before they get printed again, especially in foil.

Marchesa, the Black Rose deserves special mention here. Multiplayer games are won by those whose resources are resilient, and Marchesa gives a very strong layer of resistance to mass removal. I think she’s going to see a lot of EDH and casual multiplayer play, and I would go after foils of her.

I think that there is a lot of growth potential in the rare Conspiracies, too. Worldknit says “Draft me, and then take the best card in each pack, regardless of color!” Getting a second opening hand with Backup Plan is truly amazing. Many Cubers are going to want most, if not all, of the Conspiracies. Some of the hidden agenda cards are going to be less sought-after, but Cubers are often completionists. Go ahead and have a full set ready for them to get from you.

Also for Cubers are the cards like Cogwork Librarian that alter how drafts proceed. I will be picking these up in foil and non-foil, the regular version will not be going for much right now but there is nowhere to go but up. My example is Shadowborn Apostle. Sure, it’s a common, but when a large supply is needed from a short-run set, dollar commons are not unheard of. I’ll be chasing just about all of these types of cards in either version, from the commons to the rares. I dearly love Deal Broker, and I wish I could play seventeen of them.

First- or Second-Run Foils

Exploration and Wood Sage get their first foil treatments, and Exploration especially as part of a Legacy deck will be a sought-after foil. I wouldn’t go too crazy, but keep in mind that Conspiracy is not going to be opened very often, so the supply of foil rares is going to be low. Those who have high-end Legacy decks will be unfazed, so I’d max out around $60-$80 in value.

This set offers the sweet Terese Nielsen art of Swords to Plowshares in foil, and this is a card I’d love to have in a shiny form. You’re allowed to ask for at least $60 in trade and offer even more. The new art on Rout is notable, but I wouldn’t expect many people to upgrade an already-foil to this version. Don’t overdo it. Stifle is a card that needed a reprint for Legacy and here it is, in foil or non. It’s a good pickup as the price falls, and then will regain value in the coming months.

Foil Hydra Omnivore is going to be an interesting price to follow. There will be a small supply of this in foil, and it’s currently a $5-$10 card because we love our multi-headed beasties. I’d trade for the new ones at $5 as a long term prospect. Altar of Dementia is not going to keep its price, but the foil will be something else. It’s never been foil before and it’s a great finisher in token decks. Trade for all the Reflecting Pool you can, in foil or not. It’s just too good.

Happy Drafting!

MTGPrice Blog