Affordable Luxury

February 19, 2014 Travis Allen 6 Comments

Part of the allure of Magic is the wide array of choices a player has when selecting a deck. However you want to win, it can happen. Whether you want to grind people to dust under the heel of attrition, ramp into gigantic threats, flip their library into their graveyard, or attack with a million billion faeries, the choice is yours. This choice leads to a sense of customization and individualization. When you first put together a legacy deck, it’s “a Metalworker deck.” After you play it for awhile and change a few cards based on what you think works and what doesn’t work, it becomes “my Metalworker deck.” Tailoring our weapons to ourselves makes us feel more in touch with the game and the process. We take ownership of cards and decklists, and treat them as a mark of our ingenuity, cleverness, and innovation.

It makes sense that players will go to any length to make a deck appear special, typically by adding unique visual flair and increasing the dollar value of the components. Conspicuous consumption is a very real thing, and Magic is no stranger to it. In the pursuit of luxury, many players will choose the “stock” option of trying to foil as many cards as possible. Some will shoot for foreign non-foil, perhaps of a specific language. Some want art alters. Others choose to spend ludicrous amounts of money to go with Japanese foils. There are many paths to take in making a deck yours.

Some of these paths are very expensive. Japanese foils regularly fetch anywhere from four to one hundred times more than an English non-foil. Even English Standard staples in foil get rather expensive. How does a player that wants a nifty looking deck that feels like “theirs” do so without breaking the bank, especially in a way that won’t devalue the hell out of their collection every year?

Back to Basics

Nearly everyone agrees that Unhinged lands look awesome. They’re all John Avon, how could they not? But they’re expensive. Islands are nearly $10 these days for a nonfoil. Foil Unhinged Islands are around $70, and the others aren’t much cheaper. For true absurdity, there are Guru Islands, which currently clock in around $200. Zendikar basics are certainly fetching, but everyone and their mother has nonfoils, and the foils aren’t cheap. Acquiring a few foil Zendikar lands for your Legacy deck isn’t too tough, but if you want to play Standard you’re going to need about twenty of each basic. At an easy $10 a pop, that is a pricey set of basic lands.

Instead of going with the same lands everyone else has/wants, head off the beaten path. First, choose old border or new border. I personally prefer old border, as I feel that the foils are more brilliant, but new border gives you far more artwork options. Next, choose an art. There are lots of basics with awesome artwork throughout Magic’s history. Finally, start acquiring!

A single foil basic isn’t as noteworthy as a single foil Unhinged land, but doesn’t underestimate how good it looks when all your basics match. And perhaps most attractively, a random foil basic is going to be around $1. Don’t worry about trying to find all one hundred or so at once either. Pick out your five, and list them in any of your Have/Wants lists if you do online trading. Browse the foil basics at your LGS. (All stores have a box or binder of these.) Every time you place an order online for other cards, check to see if they have any of your basics in stock. (If the site doesn’t specifically list collector’s number, make sure you email them first to ask about exactly which one it is they have in stock. Some will just list “8th Edition Foil Island” without mentioning which of the four it is.) Slowly you’ll fill up on them, and before you know it you’ve got a huge stockpile of all matching lands that are yours and yours alone.

Uncommon Aesthetic

Foils rares and mythics are splashy, but they’re often expensive. Even the bulkiest of bulk rares are usually a dollar or two foil, and as they become playable prices rise quickly. It’s even worse when you consider foiling something like Thragtusk, which you know very well is going to rotate in a year. Instead, focus on the workhorse half of your deck – the commons and uncommons.

Foil Hero’s Downfall? Twenty bucks. Foil Doom Blade? Under $4. Cloudfin Raptor is a $2 foil. Elvish Mystic is kind of pricey at the moment, but Devour Flesh is a buck. Ultimate Price and Gray Merchants are only a few dollars as well.

Not all commons and uncommons are going to be throw-in cheap, as Elvish Mystic, Dissolve, or the Ravnica charms will attest to. But plenty are quite inexpensive, and a good way to add additional shiny to your deck without breaking the bank. The best time to grab these is just as a set releases, preferably during prerelease season. My strategy? Once the full spoiler is up, I peruse all the commons and uncommons that look remotely playable, and order foil sets of each for around $2.

Heritage

Another thing to watch for is reprints and older editions of cards. Sometimes people won’t even realize a card is a reprint. Remember Ray of Revelation from Innistrad? How many of you knew that was a reprint? I’m sure some, but not all. It was originally printed in Judgment, which conveniently enough, had foils. I loved rocking my originals. They were unique, looked great, and I was the only person in the room with them.

There are plenty of other ways to end up with different editions of cards than everyone else in the room as well. Edge of Autumn could pretty easily end up in Standard. If it does, do you want to be casting the plain Jane M15 edition, or the awesomely-bordered Future Sight foil that is currently $.60?

Occasionally there are nifty Gateway promos that don’t tend to permeate through American soil very quickly, but are still quite inexpensive. (The Plague Myr promo isn’t actually $17, it’s just some donk on Amazon asking that much.) There are piles of reprinted commons and uncommons, and while previous-edition rares may not differ in price too much from their new copies, they can still look quite different. Simple utility cards like Pithing Needle and Ratchet Bomb have alternate artworks, and there are some rares that have a swath of options when it comes to appearance.

Permanence

Think about what it’s like to have Sphinx’s Revelation in your deck. It sits in your hand for most of the game, obscured from all eyes but your own. When you finally do cast it, you just tap all your lands, flash the card quick, say “Sphinx’s for five” and toss it in the bin. Did your opponent even notice that it’s foil? Compare to Domri Rade. You slam that thing down on turn two, and it sits there, gleaming for the whole world to see for the whole game.

A foil Domri may not be especially cheaper than a foil Sphinx’s, but you’re getting more bang for your buck in the “look at how ostentatious I am” factor. In general, I much prefer to foil permanents over spells. They spend more time in play and are far more visible than something that moves straight to the grumper on cast. This isn’t to say you shouldn’t foil spells – I’ve got plenty of them in my personal binder – but if you have to choose between trading for a foil Revelation or a foil Jace AoT, think about which one you and your opponents are going to spend more time looking at.

Altered States

There are cards that exist in this state where there really is no good option for making it flashy. Take Duplicant. The foil on this thing is $35, and for the longest time was close to $50. Have you ever actually seen a pack foil Duplicant before? Nobody has. Even if they were holding it in their hands. The foiling process on it was so bad you could barely tell. It is unnoticeable in binder sleeves. Who the hell wants to spend $50 on a foil nobody knows is foil?

The recent Commander’s Arsenal edition is bad too, just in a different way. Not only is the art a bit muddy, it’s got that God-awful foiling process that looks like a Yu-Gi-Oh card and warps like nobody’s business. What’s an EDH deck to do?

Art alter! Alters are all over the Magic community, and they’re a great way to make expensive-to-foil cards look exciting without spending obscene amounts of cash. Whether it’s a card like Duplicant, which has an expensive foil that looks like garbage, Brainstorm, which has an absurdly expensive foil, or Force of Will, which simply doesn’t exist in any other fashion, alters are a flexible answer. The best part of alters is that not only are your choices practically infinite, you can even do it yourself if you’re willing to learn and enjoy a challenging creative endeavor. I’m absolutely not an artist, but I gave my Duplicant a whack a few years ago. It is by no means a remarkable piece, but simple cartoon-quality artwork with flat colors and bold lines is pretty easy to replicate on your own. Painting outside the border is quite accessible as well, and with very little skill you can create something that is one-of-a-kind with very little natural talent or skill. I included images of two of my attempts here, not because I think they’re particularly good, but because I want you to see that you can create something halfway-decent with literally zero artistic ability.

Even if you’re scared to pick up a paintbrush, there is a no shortage of willing artists out there ready for your commission. While Eric Klug produces some phenomenal work, he is by no means the only person putting out quality pieces. Check out this art alter thread over on MTGS to see what’s possible. It’s downright amazing what some of these individuals manage to create on a small piece of cardboard.

If commissioning a stranger isn’t a strategy you feel comfortable with, you can even try taking advantage of a good friend’s generosity. Most of us know someone who is an artist, whether it’s a close friend that knows Magic or just a girlfriend’s sister with a sketchbook. Artists typically love to art, and if you put some cards in front of them and say “would you please paint a fart coming out of this wizard’s butt” they may very well say yes with no expectation of reimbursement. The quality of your results will vary wildly, but if they’re doing it because they’re a nice person that is happy to create art others will see and appreciate, you can’t complain. Of course, if they do a decent job I’m sure an arrangement can be reached. Offering to take a friend out for dinner if he does your playset of Wild Nacatls as power rangers may be satisfactory all around. I’m not encouraging you to screw your artistic friends over, just explaining that it can certainly be worth trying to find out if there’s an arrangement that works for both of you.

On the Surface

Many of us carry playmats. Card store tables are often dirty, grimy, sticky, or even jagged. Nobody wants to slide their cards around on that, even in sleeves. The choice an average player has in playmats is sort of astounding. There are playmats from Grand Prixs, PTQ top 8s, judge mats, SCG IQs, and TCGPlayer events to name a few. This isn’t even counting the dizzying array of official and semi-official mats that companies like Ultra Pro offer. What do all of these mats have in common? They nearly all use MTG or other fantasy-grade artwork.

Solid color playmats can be had for $10. Carrying over from the “abuse your friendships for cheap card alters” idea, consider pestering a friend to do a custom image for you on a solid mat. It doesn’t have to be extravagant to catch the eye. Let your imagination run wild. Tell them you want dinosaurs playing Magic. Ask for Tarmogoyf eating an ice cream cone. Maybe even give the artist free reign to draw absolutely anything they want. You may end up with something that you absolutely love and never would have thought of on your own.

Alternatively, there are sites out there now that let you print your own playmats for quite reasonable prices. Given that Ultra Pro mats can fetch upwards of $30, ~$25 for a custom printed mat is a steal. Print your dog’s dumb face on the mat. Use goofy art that has literally nothing to do with Magic. (Make sure you have permission!) Go with a “texture” type of print, so it looks like you’re playing on top of a metal crate from Half-Life. Design a grid with outlines for deck zone, red zone, etc with visual accents. For less than a typical “dragon with glowing eyes” or “chick with a big sword and bigger hooters” mat, you can have something truly unique.

These are just some ideas on how to look good playing Magic without breaking the bank on Korean Foil Mana Leaks. I’m sure I’m not the only one who has found little tips on where to save a few bucks when making your game presence special. Please share any you have in the tips, so we can all be a little flashier in our own way. Meanwhile, this weekend is Modern Pro Tour Valencia. Keep an eye out Friday morning for hot info off the floor. Then we’ll digest the results next Wednesday.

The Gilded Goblin

Sticker Shock – Higher Prices, but Will They Stay?

February 17, 2014 Jared Yost 3 Comments

By: Jared Yost

Magic cards going up in price, you don’t say? I’ve noticed quite a few trending cards over the past week and we’re going to delve a bit deeper to see if the hype circus has come to town again or if these prices have actually corrected themselves.

Legacy

So, uh, it looks like that new $100 price point is going to stick after all for Rishadan Port. As of Friday, Starcity is still sold out of Ports at $100. TCGPlayer sellers are listing them at a minimum of $105 a copy, which means that either a buyout of Port has occurred at the $70 entry point (not likely), or the popularity of decks it is featured in has reached new highs (most likely). A buyout at $70 seems completely unrealistic to me, as the buy-in price is way too high to capitalize on when selling back into the market even at $100-$120 (which is probably where Port will settle in the near future). Foils are still an absurd at $500 – or $1500 if you want a Japanese foil. Just to put that in perspective, foil Polluted Delta’s are around $460. Delta is played in 40% of Legacy decks as opposed to Port which is played in 9%. Based on popularity alone it seems wrong that Port should be more expensive. One reason I can think of is that Mercadian Masques is an older set and the potential for foils to be lost or destroyed is much higher than for Onslaught-era cards. Another reason is that fewer Masques packs were opened over Onslaught since the set was so underpowered compared to the previous Urza’s block.

The rise in popularity of both Death and Taxes and Lands have made Rishadan Port absurdly expensive. I don’t see it coming down from this new high. I guess there is always the small chance of a reprint, since it is within the grace window of Masques through Scourge where the Reserved List does not apply (although at the same time the sets are not present in the Modern format).

Meddling Mage

Meddling Mage has seen a resurgence of play in Legacy due to the popularity of Patriot Aggro (though I believe this is a misnomer since the deck usually only runs 10 creatures, 4 Delver of Secrets, 4 Stoneforge Mystic, and 2 True-Name Nemesis with Meddling Mage in the board), Stoneblade, and Bant archetypes. The mage is typically run as a playset throughout the deck and sideboard combined, so the demand is high when she / he is needed. The upward trending price of $5 seems fair to me because both versions were printed in smaller secondary / tertiary sets. Expect Meddling Mage to retain this price going forward until the next reprint.

City of Traitors

Another land that is taking off. Be honest, are any of you surprised that this land has risen? It has been sitting at around $35-$40 for the longest time and is now correcting in price to a new high of $55-$60. It has always been played in several legacy archetypes like Sneak and Show, Tezzerator, Imperial Painter, and MUD. Only one printing. The perfect factors for a price correction. The new high of $55-$60 will continue to be its price, and in the future I expect City to keep trending upwards. This land is on the Reserved List so they will be only getting rarer and rarer as the years go on.

Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas

With his own Legacy archetype to his name, this version of Tezzeret packs quite the punch in Legacy and could even make waves in Modern if the right deck opportunities present themselves. Right now though, his main format that he shines in is Legacy, and he does so not only through Tezz Control (which also made Transmute Artifact spike), but also Affinity where he can provide the necessary long-term advantage that the deck otherwise sorely lacks. The reprint boogeyman is always a possibility (especially with Planeswalkers because they can so easily be thrown into a Duel Deck), but I doubt we’ll see a reprint of this Tezzeret for quite a while since we already have the original Tezzeret that keeps getting reprinted. He is also from a small set, which means that the new price of around $20 will be sticking.

Modern

Cryptic Command

The premier counterspell of Modern, Cryptic Command has seen another upswing in price due the unbanning of Bitterblossom and the potential for the Fae to be a new fighting force in the format. Cryptic Command has always been sweet in Modern so I don’t see any reason why it would be less than $40 going into Modern season. I’m not sure how much higher this card could go, but I doubt it would be worth it to pick up extras. Get your playset in preparation for Modern season but don’t go out of your way to try and and acquire any extras as I’m not sure if there is any more potential for this go much higher due to the anticipated popularity of Zoo and other new non-blue archetypes.

Bloodghast

Bloodghast is actually relevant in Modern now that Deathrite Shaman is banned. Along with cards like Vengevine, I can already see a new graveyard brew starting to form in the minds of pros and FNM grinders alike. Rather than trying to go deep on something like Vengevine, why not try to pick up some Bloodghasts at the much lower buy-in price of $7? These have the potential of doubling up once Modern season starts if there is even a whiff of a graveyard brew doing well that utilizes him. These types of cards are exactly where I want to be when trying to find undervalued rares, as they aren’t that hard to get into and don’t have much of chance of going down in price. (Dredge is a real deck in Vintage, in addition to the casual popularity of Bloodghast.)

Cavern of Souls

Cavern is starting its trend upwards, which is exactly what I expected. This land is so powerful it’s not even funny. It nerfs blue players in Modern and hoses plenty of decks in Legacy, but most important of all it allows me (and all the other casuals) to play a five color sliver deck without having to worry about having my slivers being countered all the time! So awesome!

But seriously, pick up your Caverns if you haven’t yet. I believe you will come to regret it if you don’t as I don’t see them ever getting any cheaper than they are now.

Aether Vial
Lord of Atlantis
Threads of Disloyalty

I guess people are seriously starting to brew with Merfolk in Modern, as two of its core pieces are trending upwards and Threads continues to spike the closer to Modern season we get. All three are great in the Merfolk deck for different reasons.

Aether Vial is one of the deck’s backbones as it essentially acts as a pseudo-mox that allows you to play your Merfolk at instant speed.

The Time Shifted version of Lord of Atlantis is now nearing $7 which is noticeably more than its white bordered brothers from 4th through 7th edition. I guess having an all black bordered deck is more important to players, so watch out for any time shifted versions of Lord of Atlantis you might see.

Threads of Disloyalty was already known by many to be a great card in Modern, but unbanning Wild Nacatl just made it more awesome in the new format against the many possible Zoo decks Merfolk or other blue decks could face. Expect the $30 it is now commanding to stick until the next reprint.

Standard

Archangel of Thune
Courser of Kruphix

Archangel of Thune has risen in price because of the new centaur Courser of Kruphix and her interaction with landfalling to gain one life in order to pump up your team. I think a lot of people are picking her up in anticipation of someone breaking this interaction, in either a G/W shell or in a Bant shell that may utilize Kiora or Prophet of Kruphix.

Unfortunately since Starcitygames Somerset was canceled last weekend there wasn’t any new data to let us know if the Gruul Aggro deck with 4x Courser that placed second at Nashville is the real deal or not. Continue following Twitter and other hot sources for further updates as the next major tournament weekend comes.

I’m still quite keen on Ephara performing well so be on the lookout for her too in addition to any action these two cards are able to provide.

Commander / Casual

Cataclysm

It appears that one of the most devastating cards in the Commander format is starting to trend upwards in price. What gives? I thought casuals hated land destruction and massive Armageddon–like effects? This upswing might have something to do with the card seeing marginal play in the sideboards of a few Death and Taxes decks in Legacy. (Note: Cataclysm is not on the reserved list – this could be a perfect candidate for the new FTV: Annihilation set coming up.) I would not buy into this card at current price of $10 – I believe it is bound to go down because land destruction is looked upon unfavorably in casual formats and the card really has not seen a lot of Legacy action outside of a few showings as a one or two of in Death and Taxes. Sell into the hype.

Skullclamp

Skullclamp is trending upwards to around $5 per copy. I’m surprised it has taken this long to increase in price – even though it is banned in every format except for Vintage and Commander, it does see an extraordinary amount of play in Commander due to the fact that is the best equipment artifact ever printed for aggro decks. $5 is a fair price for Skullclamp. It has taken this long for it to get to $5 so I don’t expect it to go up any time soon in the future. If you have any extra copies, feel free to trade them out as it is going to take a while for this artifact to make the next price jump. In the mean time though, Darksteel foils seem like a pretty good deal if you can find them for $15.

Exquisite Blood

The casual all-star that never seems to quit going up in value, Exquisite Blood has now reached a new high of $6. Call me crazy, but I feel like this card is the perfect candidate for a core set reprint just like Sanguine Bond. If you like playing with Exquisite Blood, keep your copies and enjoy the fun you will have activating Vizkopa Guildmage’s second ability and winning instantly. If this card means nothing to you, ignore it, as any price increases it makes at this point will only put you behind if you try to out them in the future. Everyone else, look for any extra copies you have and trade them out to pick up other Modern staples that you can play at your shop.

Blightsteel Colossus
Silent-Blade Oni

Blightsteel Colossus has taken the jump to $15 (up from $10 last week, and way up from a low of $4 when it was in Standard) which is not surprising since it is one of the Timmy-ist cards ever created. I mean, look at how awesome that guy is! One hit and you’re dead! No wonder legacy MUD runs a copy or two that it ramps up to, equips a Lightning Greaves to, and goes to town. But we know the real reason why Blightsteel is so high, because of Commander and all the casuals that want to Tinker it out in their 60 card decks. Keep a good watch on Blightsteel; I don’t think it is done rising in price. I don’t think it can’t go too much higher than the the current $15 it commands but with Modern you never know. It could become the win condition of a random Woo Brew again.

On the other hand, Silent-Blade Oni is strictly a casual card with the popular Ninjutsu effect that players love to see from time to time. He has increased slightly to $5 but I would not be trading for extra copies of this guy any time soon. He is strictly a casual card and won’t see much growth in the short term because he isn’t played in any competitive formats. There are better options to trade for that have more potential to go up further.

Wrap Up

Lots have cards have changed across basically every format, and the consensus is that these prices are here to stay with the possible exception being Cataclysm (though I am discovering that price memory is a very strong force within the Magic community which prevents overpriced cards from coming down faster than they should). Expect all the cards I’ve mentioned to maintain their new prices for the foreseeable future, and expect one or two them to even keep trending upwards.

Casual Fridays

EDH Bannings and Fun

February 14, 2014 Cliff Daigle

By: Cliff Daigle

I do not consider myself proficient at very many things, but I am very good with the concepts of EDH: the methods of deck construction, the spirit of the format, and the wide range of things that are allowed in the search for fun.

Any financier, casual or professional, has to understand the casual formats in order to grok why on earth some cards have the price they do. It’s important to understand that while Magic has all sorts of constructed awesomeness, it’s still mainly a friendly, casual, kitchen-table game. In fact, that’s been the key to its success: appealing to such a wide swath of players. Constructed formats cause price spikes, while casual stars see slow and steady growth.

Today, I want to help you understand a little more about EDH and its principles, so you can see why the Rules Committee bans and unbans what it does. I gained good value picking up Kokusho before its unbanning, and I made a little selling into the Staff of Domination hype at its unbanning.

At its heart, Commander is all about interaction and experience. It was put together by judges who wanted to play swingy, splashy, uninhibited Magic. It is a way to unwind and to explore the quirky side ideas that have come up in this game.

There are some common tropes. Every EDH player considers a tribal deck at some point. Every player thinks about random deck ideas: an all-creature, or no-creature, or only certain sorts of art, or a deck designed to win via infinite combos. We often give thought to foiling out a deck, or making it all foreign, or if you’re Judge Emeritus Sheldon Menery, you embark on a foil Italian deck.

I would be remiss if I didn’t include Cube players with EDH players. There’s a lot of similarities, from the number of certain cards needed to the desire to make your interpretation unique.

One of the key features of Commander decks, and therefore a financially relevant idea, is that all sorts of play styles are possible. Are you a griefer? A combo savant? Do you only cast spells that cost more than eight mana? Whatever you’re into, EDH can provide. The founders recognized that fun is defined very differently from person to person, and don’t try to legislate that.

What they do legislate is imbalance, but they do so very selectively. Primeval Titan and his cousin Sylvan Primordial allow for huge mana gains, and are easy to abuse.

The issue that comes up when there’s a banning in EDH is this: they don’t try to ban infinite-combo cards. There’s no way to ban all of those without a banlist a mile long. Plus, they want to allow you that way of playing, if you and your play group enjoy that. What they tend to come down on are cards that are impossible to use ‘fairly’.

Allow me this example. Before PT got banned, it was in most green decks. As was Green Sun’s Zenith. I know that I would cast GSZ for three and get Sakura-Tribe Elder, or scrape by until I got to seven mana to get the Titan. It was simply the best thing I could do, and everyone at the table knew it. Getting the Titan or the Primordial out is such a huge swing, and sets up “waiting to die” board states.

Whenever a card is banned, the refrain goes up. “Why wasn’t [CARDNAME] banned too?!?!” Very often in forums, the cited card is Palinchron. This thing exists for no reason except to generate infinite mana. All you need is one land that generates two or more mana, and you’re infinite. It is not banned because infinite shenanigans is part of the game. Plus, with Palinchron, an instant-speed kill spell with the untap on the stack will solve the problem. There’s too many infinite combos to hate them all away. (Hi there, Kiki-Jiki!)

So what’s the financial bonus to knowing how these casual formats work?

The most relevant idea is that these players aren’t getting cards to trade. We trade for or buy a card in order to put it in a deck and keep it there. This cuts down on the number of that card in circulation, and inflates the price.

Case in point: the San Diego Comic-Con Planeswalkers. There is no hard data on the number made available, but those who got them either flipped them for immediate profit, are holding them to get more money later, or kept them for decks. It’s possible that some are simply showpieces in a collection, but these are not going to be found in random binders.

If you have one, you’re either playing it or keeping it until you’re ready to sell it. There are very few out there to be had. I’ve got an SDCC Garruk, and it’s in a deck and it’s staying there until I am desperate enough to sell pieces from my favorite EDH deck.

Another salient point is how often we build random casual decks and then just keep them in a box on a shelf. It’s not always worth the hassle to take decks apart. The high point for me was 15 EDH decks and that’s a lot to deal with. Several just sat unused for months at a time–few of us will get to play 15 Commander games in less than a month.

It’s a phenomenon not limited to Commander, though. We have a habit of putting old decks aside. I have a deck I built in 1999, jokingly called Turbo-Thallid, using those Fallen Empires cards to great extent, and using Earthcraft and Wild Growth and Fungal Bloom to power out lots of Saprolings. Thallids have gotten much better since, but I haven’t updated the deck in fourteen years. It’s a pet deck, and how would I even try to explain what format it’s for to new people? It’s not even Legacy-legal!

Rest assured, though: Earthcraft will eventually get unbanned in Legacy, and I’ll be happy to sell into that hype.

Where EDH shines as a format is when people find a common power level. If all of your friends enjoy counterspell wars and copying Time Warp, more power to you folks. If your Commander games end up as Giants vs. Faeries vs. Elves vs. Beasts, that’s awesome too. There’s no one way to play it.

What surprises many tournament players is how often Commander decks are deliberately underpowered. It’s more than skipping dual lands and fetch lands. It’s about leaving out cards that end the game abruptly, or lead to twenty-minute turns. In my Experiment Kraj deck, I don’t have any abilities that tap to add mana, because I have lots of untapping abilities. It’s no fun to me if I deliberately and consistently go infinite.

These games are not always about winning. These games are about the experience and the interaction. Mr. Menery said it best: “The secret of the format is not breaking it.”

Think Twice

Applying Statistical Analysis to the Modern B&R List Announcement

February 13, 2014 Camden Clark 7 Comments

By: Camden Clark

There is a term in economics called “Head and Shoulders.” It is a way of evaluating a chart to predict an upswing in the prices of a stock or commodity. This is better described with a picture:

Here there are two shoulders and a head. There is an initial upswing that signifies the “left shoulder.” After this initial rally, prices decrease again to a reasonable reentry point. After prices decrease, there would be a second major rally where prices increase dramatically past the left shoulder point. This rally is called the head. After the peak of the head, people sell out. Finally, there is a third rally called the right shoulder.

How does this relate to magic finance?

It’s simple, we can use the same analysis to see how the secondary market reacts to events. This statistical method can help us see when cards are going to go up even more than they did at first, and at what price to buy in.

This has the most applicability to the recent modern changes. The banned and restricted announcement caused a mass run up on certain cards, one of them being Mistbind Clique. I do not think that these run ups are now the baseline prices. We will see a dip as there isn’t the REAL demand for these cards.

What do I mean by real demand? The kind of demand generated by players, not speculators.
When there is an unbanning like this, there are a ton of speculators who don’t want to hold these cards for the medium to long term as players, they simply want to generate a profit. This causes a bandwagon effect where prices of cards skyrocket to levels previously unseen.
The special thing about unbannings is that the pros haven’t been able to showcase decks that real players want to play. Real players haven’t seen “that deck” that has one of the unbanned cards. As a result, when the speculators sell out after making a profit, there is little real demand for those cards at those prices. As a result, the prices drop dramatically, waiting to rally when “that deck” shows up.

So where do pros showcase their decks?

At the pro tour of course.

Want some real proof of this?

The only unbanning we’ve had in recent years in Modern was Valakut, The Molten Pinnacle. Cards that had very specific interactions with Valakut but weren’t really playable otherwise were now VERY playable. These cards are ones like Scapeshift and Prismatic Omen. Let’s take a look at the graph of Scapeshift.

Brilliantly, we can see a textbook head and shoulders formation. After the B&R announcement, there was a quick run-up on Scapeshift. This represents the left shoulder. In the weeks after the run up, prices decreased by almost 40%, only to increase back up to the point where the left shoulder left off. That represents the head. The price decreased again back down to the bottom level. After that, there was another rally around this card, and there was another run up. This was the right shoulder. This was on a narrow card like Scapeshift, which has little utility outside of the Valakut ramp deck. Prismatic Omen, unfortunately, did not follow this pattern. Let’s take a look:

I can formulate some reasons why this card did not have the same potential for a rally:

Was only a 2 of in a narrow deck.
Some versions of the deck didn’t even run this card

What can we formulate from the lesson of Prismatic Omen? Don’t focus in on narrow cards. Cards that are targeted should be a four-of in a deck. They should be playable in many decks for risk prevention.

Now that we’ve looked at history, let’s look at the current cards. What would I recommend targeting around the pro tour?

First, go with your gut. I know I’m more focused on statistical analysis. But as magic players, we all have that sense of what’s “good” or not (some of us more than others). You should pay close attention to the Pro Tour coverage. This provides you with a literally instant way to find things to speculate on. Watch the match-ups.

The buzz factor is also important. Watch all the relevant hashtags. I like to watch #mtgfinance, #mtg and #mtgo. There are a few others, and there will be a pro tour hashtag to watch. (#PTBNG -ed) Listen to LSV. Listen to Travis Woo. Follow Michael Hetrick on Twitter. People with THAT kind of name power can really move cards. That’s how real demand is generated. People see their favorite pros playing or talking about a deck or card, and THEY want to get their hands on that card. Speculators generate a sort of artificial demand for cards to run up the prices. The lasting profit will come from people who actually play modern, or are looking for cards for the PTQ season in the summer.

This is also the time to make some long term bets. We are looking at cards that have the potential to double or triple by PTQ season. These are mostly cyclical.

What would I be paying very close attention to?

Restoration Angel

This card is TOO cheap. There is little reason this card should be five dollars with how much play it will see in Modern in the next season. The (un)bannings have provided an opportunity for Restoration Angel. I could see a UWB or WB deck with Bitterblossom and this card. I wouldn’t move on it now. I want to see proof of this card seeing play. Regardless, five bucks is the absolute floor for this card. I don’t see it reasonably going down AT ALL. This is low-risk, possibly high reward. It sees play in Commander and Cube, so there’s some potential for long term growth. Keep your eye on this.

Mistbind Clique

I think the spike on this card is unwarranted. Many others feel the same way. There’s going to be a major sell off for the next couple of days. Look at the hilariously high buylist prices.

A selloff is in order. Speculators are the only people who were actually buying into this hype. Over the next two weeks coming up to the pro tour, they will start selling off after getting in on the ground floor. I’d put this at a hard WATCH. Pay attention to what pros are saying about this card. If you think that there’s enough hype around it coming into the Pro Tour, it’s reasonable to move in on this one. Sell into the pro tour hype.

This is exactly what I was talking about with head and shoulders. We’ve had the left shoulder. The selloff is about to happen. Get in when prices decrease dramatically and you could see the head be even larger than the run-up on this card initially.

Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker

This one has been on a steady decline for the past several weeks. I don’t think there’s a reason for this card to decline while Splinter Twin rises (more on that one in a moment). Kiki-Jiki is good in the Kiki-Pod lists a couple of months ago. While that deck fell a bit out of favor, I could see a deck with better creatures being better against a field with more Zoo and Fae decks (um. Restoration Angel blocks 3 power flyers for days). Also, Splinter Twin is fast and has the disruption to Remand annoying faeries.

Speaking of remand…

Remand

I don’t see this not going up. If there’s a Faeries deck, it might play this one. Moreover, Splinter Twin and the TWoo and UR delver lists are playing this amazing card. Deathrite Shaman, a notoriously useful card against Snapcaster Mage, is gone now. Also, Deathrite comes out T1 and is immensely frustrating. I don’t think there will be major gains here, but it’s possible you could get a 30% gain from this card.

Deathrite Shaman

Out of any banned card in Modern, I think this has been the most unwarranted sell-off. This is a Legacy and (to a lesser extent) Standard playable. Watch the price. I’m a buyer under four dollars. Buy foils too. Foils are good as this is a Cube and Commander card. Watch the price for foils. If they tank, you’ll be in for some major profits.

My final pick is:

Knight of the Reliquary

This, surprisingly, hasn’t seen a run up. I don’t know why. It plays very well with Wild Nacatl in a Zoo deck as a huge beater with a very useful effect in that deck to get a, say, Gavony Township. It’s also widely playable across the format. With Noble Hierarch being the defacto mana dork now, a Bant goodstuff deck may come to the forefront for example. Either way, I don’t see this card going lower than it is now. It’s definitely a pickup.

Before I go, I’d just like to introduce myself. I’m Camden Clark, and I’ve been playing Magic since Dark Ascension. I’m really interested in the financial aspect of MTG, and want to use statistical analysis to help evaluate cards. Follow me on twitter at http://twitter.com/flshbackfinance I’d love to have a chat! In full disclosure, I have not purchased any of the cards I have endorsed above, I’m just trying to help you know what to look for in cards and how to use the powerful statistical tool that is mtgprice.com!
See you soon.

MTGPrice Blog