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Casual Fridays

Reprint Mania!

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This year, we’ve had a tremendous number of cards reprinted.

In order:

February: Duel Deck: Blessed vs. Cursed

June: Eternal Masters

August: From the Vault: Lore

August: Conspiracy: Take the Crown

September: Duel Deck: Nissa vs. Ob Nixilis

November: Commander 2016

November: Planechase Anthology

This doesn’t count the reprints in regular sets or the Masterpieces in Kaladesh. Also, the Standard Showdown packs are adding to the numbers of cards in circulation.

Take a moment and think about this list. Every card you have, every card you purchase, runs the risk of a reprint. I’ve talked before about how hesitant I am to speculate on a large quantity of cards because the reprint train is never stopping.

We already know that next year has another round of Modern Masters in March, as well as a Commander anthology in June. The only truly safe cards are those on the Reserved List, and it doesn’t matter if you agree with the philosophy, it’s one they are sticking to.

I also admit that I’ve totally given up on predicting what they will do when it comes to reprints. Putting Iona, Shield of Emeria in both the FTV and the Modern Masters last summer is a move that perplexes me beyond anything else.

At the same time, we are back to one rotation per year, which conversely makes Standard a lot more appealing for speculative purposes.

So what’s an aware, educated Magic financier to do?

Rule #1: Keep Quantities Reasonable

Everyone who’s tried to make money off this game has their horror stories and a box full of cards that should have paid off but never did. I don’t want to highlight anyone else’s misses, though I can think of them. I confess to owning more than 50 Prophet of Kruphix, though.

If you have a spare playset or two of a card, your exposure is limited. If you want to go crazy deep and pick up a couple hundred copies, you’re putting a lot of money at risk, especially if it’s a card that might get reprinted.

Long-term holds are basically crapshoots. I traded for thirty copies of Thespian’s Stage when it was new and less than a dollar, and I had to dodge a reprint in every casual-oriented set for it to get to the $3 it’s at now. Believe me, I had confidence in the long-term appeal of the card, but I also knew how easily it would be added to just about anything.

Rule #2: Foils When Possible, Except in Standard

It’s a truism that Standard foils are a trap. Standard players don’t generally feel the need to foil out a deck as often as Cube, Commander, Modern, or Legacy players do.

If you think a card is going to have appeal in non-Standard formats, and you’re willing to get in at a higher number, then foils are far safer. It’s not a guarantee, not at all, but it’s harder to print foil versions. On the list above, only Eternal Masters and Conspiracy 2 had foil versions of cards, and the From the Vault foiling is so unpretty that many collector-players stay away.

Here’s the caveat, though: future Masterpiece sets are a dark cloud hanging over future prices. We’ve had lands, and we currently have artifacts. This leaves us creatures, spells, and enchantments. Perhaps one set will be instants, and another sorceries. Wouldn’t be surprising.

Picking up a Masterpiece version of a card generally puts a ceiling on the previous foil versions. Foil Chromatic Lantern from Return to Ravnica will never be more expensive than the Masterpiece version. I’m surprised that the Invention version of Sol Ring has a price so close to the Judge version.

Rule #3: Be Prepared to Lose

This is perhaps the most important rule when it comes to reprints. Sometimes, you’re going to get hit. Even when your card starts to show signs of growing, something happens and it stays worthless.

Accept this. It’s going to happen. It’s not just about a missed spec, it’s something that could have been amazing but instead it’s just cardboard that you can’t even light on fire effectively.

(pause to look at my stack of Prophets and sigh)

If you’re going to play this aspect of Magic: the Gathering, you have to be prepared to not just be wrong. That’s bad enough. You have to be ready for your card to start to take off and then circumstances change and your card craters.

Imagine having a stack of Ruinous Path, and then in Shadows over Innistrad, they decided to reprint Hero’s Downfall. That’s a gut punch right in the wallet. Strictly better reprints are rare, as are emergency bannings, but they are factors you have to be ready for.

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PROTRADER: PucaPicks for 11/17/16

Last week I left off after Magic 2015, and I’ve got some more to talk about! I’m diving for uncommons and commons that are in high demand and yet can be found languishing in old binders and bulk boxes. This week, we are going to make it all the way back to Return to Ravnica, being on the lookout for cards that people want a lot, not just the ones that are high value.

I want to reiterate: These are the cards that can be overlooked, or underestimated. You might think that these are too commonly printed to be worth the trouble, or no one wants these, but I’m here to help make picking through a binder or a bulk box that much more fun and profitable.

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

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PROTRADER: PucaPicks for 11/10/2016

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One of the features of Puca that I’ve really come to appreciate is the ability to sort cards and expansions by how many people want a card.

I find it super helpful to sort out what I can send in multiples, and what packages I can put together. It’s also great for me to get a quick list of the things I really want to look for from an expansion, most especially when I am sorting through chaff and looking for the things to pick out.

So this week, I want to peruse some expansions and see where I can pluck value, either from old draft boxes, or the nickel bulk box at your store, or at someone’s binder.

I’m going to go from Kaladesh backwards, so strap in!

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ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Casual Fridays

The Return of the Curve

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Oh, what a good day this is. We’ve had a few weeks since the announcement that Standard is back to one rotation per year, and I couldn’t be more excited.

It’s not exactly the same as it was, and that’s going to be an issue going forward. Shadows over Innistrad and Eldritch Moon are going to rotate at the same time as Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch. My tendency is to assume that things are the same as they were, and that’s not the case. Rotation is not equal, some are 18 months and some are 24 months.

When the change was announced, there was a big winner: Gideon, Ally of Zendikar.

gideon

Gideon’s gained more than $10 since then, and I love seeing this curve come back. About a year after a card came out, there would be something to happen to trigger demand on the card, and here we are, seeing that increase in demand.

The increase in time really benefits Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch, which gained six months. So today I want to look at some cards from those sets which have some potential and can give us some strong gains. One of the things I really look for is a low buy-in price. If I’m not spending much, that means I’m at a low risk of losing value if these speculative picks don’t pay off.

Regrettably, some of these won’t pay but the ones that do are really going to make me look good and make my wallet happy.

Part the Waterveil – $3.64 – Every kooky blue deck tends to play this as a finisher. Chaining them together is generally good enough, but I think there’s going to be a Metallurgic Summoning deck eventually, and this is going to be the top end of that deck. If nothing else, it’s an extra turns card, and those have proven to have some long-term casual appeal. With the exception of Temporal Trespass, at least.

Ob Nixilis, Reignited – $4.58 – I don’t care that it’s a Duel Deck card. It’s got room to grow. It’s incredibly effective at any point in the game, it’s powerful, and it’s still got nearly a year to make a splash. People are resisting it, but remember how well it did at the Pro Tour.

Ruinous Path – $1.74 – Black decks have all the removal. Being able to spend mana and solve a problem on the board is incredibly powerful. I’ve touted this card before and while it’s not as good as Hero’s Downfall, it’s one of the best solutions to problems on the board. To the Slaughter has popped up in decks, and this is better by far.

Linvala, the Preserver – $2.42 – This small-set mythic isn’t going to be a four-of, but if Panharmonicon decks really take off, this would be a super fun addition, capable of three creatures and ten life! It’s good in control decks, as a top end and a card that can take a game you’re losing and turn it into a game you win.

Thought-Knot Seer – $5.85 – We haven’t been lacking for colorless lands, and with Aether Hub being one of the most popular lands around, colorless mana is going to remain a useful thing. Thought-Knot is one of the most powerful things you can do with this mana, and as a popular card in Modern, there’s a lot of value to be had still.

Chandra, Flamecaller – $7.04 – Don’t forget, there was a time that she was $35! She’s got the perfect first curve, as she was adopted initially. She has a problem where she doesn’t play well with the newer Chandra, Torch of Defiance, but that card is dropping fast and I think there’s good room for growth with the big-sister version. Imagine that at Pro Tour Aether Revolt, there’s a red deck that tops out at three of these. A double-up to $15 is the low end.

Eldrazi Mimic – $.91 – I have some high, high hopes for this card in the Metalwork Colossus decks. Barring that, as I’ve written before, I am optimistic about the Eternal potential of this card.