Tag Archives: Eternal Masters

PROTRADER: The Irony of Eternal Masters

Last week I talked about the incoming price declines we can expect from the release of Eternal Masters.  Reprints of Legacy, Vintage, and Commander staples are sure to drop prices to varying degrees simply because the demand for more staples will not likely outpace supply.  This is especially the case for 1-ofs like Mana Crypt, Karakas, and Vampiric Tutor.  Prices are about to fluctuate significantly.

We could pause and celebrate a successful set release for Wizards of the Coast at this point.  They’re going to generate more profits for Hasbro and the player base will have easier access to numerous eternal staples.  A true win-win right?

Well, not exactly.  You see, some cards didn’t get reprinted in Eternal Masters.  Obviously everything can’t get a reprint – there are far more cards worth reprinting than there were slots in the set.  Some cards will inevitably have to wait their turn for next time.  The problem is, those cards which dodged reprint are now very likely to jump higher in price!  Players may open up a few valuable Legacy staples and wish to trade for other parts of the deck which weren’t in Eternal Masters.  Speculators are definitely going to pounce on opportunities where supply did not increase.  And overall we’ll see copies dry up over time, leading to higher pricing.

Thus, some card prices in key archetypes will jump higher, counteracting much of the relief delivered by Eternal Masters.  The world is an ironic place, isn’t it?

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PROTRADER: EMA Aftershocks

A few weeks back, I openly pondered whether Eternal Masters would be able to serve as a better reprint vehicle than something like Commander or Conspiracy- each set prioritizing what makes it unique, rather than trying to fit “staples” of each format into three sets. While we haven’t seen what the Conspiracy or Commander offerings will look like yet, it’s fair to say that EMA has quite a few cards in it that are not strictly masters of eternal formats. We are also going to discuss the distribution issues surrounding this set, and how it might be best to approach acquisition early and in the long term.

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Eternal Masters: The Rares

Here’s the list of rares in Modern Masters 2015 that are currently worth the MSRP of a pack:
Noble Hierarch $47
Spellskite $33
Fulminator Mage $29
Leyline of Sanctity $15
…and that’s it. Only four rares worth the retail of $10, and that doesn’t account for any markup you paid along the way.

I am pretty sure that there will be a similar trajectory for the rares of Eternal Masters, though some of the foils will have amazingly high prices. I’m expecting low things, much more in line with Modern Masters 2015: a few chase mythics, a little value at rare, and a lot of $5 and under cards.

I’m not going to go over every card, just the ones that I think will be near, at, or above the $10 mark by the time we get to Eldritch Moon.
Enlightened Tutor – Currently, this is solidly at $16 for the two nonfoil versions. Supply is tiny, though, and a lot of these are going to get put into Cubes and decks. I think this ends up just about $10.

Karmic Guide – The original is at $6, the Commander 2013 version is $3 and even the Judge Foil is barely at $20. This is the nail in the coffin, and will settle around $2.

Mother of Runes – Three printings keep this between $3 and $5, and I see no reason for that to change. The foils on this are interesting, as this art is more appealing than the other two foils, so we may see $25 or more on the foils.

Mystical Tutor – This is $8 with a From the Vault lurking at $25. It won’t be higher than $10, but it will be more than $5. The foils will easily be $25 or more, though, as people will get rid of the FtV foil and the unusual look those have.

Serendib Efreet – It’s never been good enough, though the stats alone are impressive. It’s a 3 /4 flyer for a mere three mana! It’ll be a dollar rare, unfortunately.

Ichorid – I’m inclined to say this takes a dive. Currently at $11, I’m pretty sure it’ll fall to $6 or lower. It’s just not popular enough. It’s possible that people open this and want to build a Dredge/Bridge from Below deck, but I highly doubt it.

Sinkhole – Let’s get this out of the way: It’s not going to stay $30. This was a judge foil in 2010, and while it was a common, it was last printed in Unlimited. I would be fascinated to know if there were more Judge versions out there than Alpha and Beta ones. I suspect it’s close, though I don’t know for sure. This is best friends with Hymn to Tourach, but as a rare, I think this is going to end up very close to $10 out of pure price memory.

Toxic Deluge – It’s played rarely but it was nudging up to $20 before the reprint news cut it to $10. I think it falls all the way to $5, and at that point, it’s intriguing as a pickup.

Gamble – There are enough decks that want this to keep the price high, though I feel it will fall to $15 or so. Losing half of its value is still painful. Foils on this could be quite silly, though, because a lot of Commander decks will love it.

Sulfuric Vortex – This will put all the versions to bulk, though the foils might make it to $5.

Heritage Druid – Elf players need to brace themselves, because this is going to drop like a rock. Three dollars, but the foil will be about $15.

Regal Force – This is a surprisingly awesome card in a range of creature decks, which you might not expect for its stats. Financially, though, this is going to be a $5-$7 card with the foils about $20.

Shardless Agent – The buylist on this has already dropped by $5 in the last couple weeks, and that’s a very bad sign for anyone who has these in stock. Once pushing $25, these will end at about $10.

Vindicate – That’s a scary graph for a card, gradual declines over the last couple of years and now this. It’s a universal answer, though, and you can never have enough of those. I want it to be higher, but this won’t be above $10.

Vindicate

Isochron Scepter – Once, this was expensive and amazing with split cards, but it’s gotten supplemental products here and there and this will put it to $2.

Sensei’s Divining Top – The top has dropped nearly $10 since being spoiled and that’s a very telling indicator. I personally can’t stand people running this in Commander, as it is incremental advantage in a battlecruiser format, and it just takes so long! I expect this to settle at about $10, but I’m prepared for foils to carry a big multiplier, likely to about $40-$50.

Maze of Ith – I love to think about cards where the FTV version is less expensive than the original. Is it the art? The foiling process? Maybe it’s amazing in 93-94? Thirty dollars is not where it’s going to stay, but I do think we are going to see some odd price disconnects with this. The Eternal Masters version will likely settle between $10-$15.

Mishra’s Factory – First off, I think your original four seasons versions are perfectly safe. Every other version is going to be just above bulk.

Wasteland – A Tempest uncommon, a Judge Foil, a Player Reward, a Zendikar Expedition, and now this. It’s had that many extra printings and I think all the specials are relatively safe. They will feel a bump, but the Tempest version has lost more than $20 so far and it’s going to fall farther. I think it ends up about $30, and that’s a price I’m going to think about buying a few at.

Grinder Finance – Eternal Masters part 2 : The Masters Quandry

ema class of 2016

Ladies and Gentlemen, let’s welcome the Eternal Masters class of 2016.  Otherwise known as the 21 cards currently pre-ordering for at least the cost of an Eternal Masters booster pack (at MSRP).  That’s right guys, of the 53 rares and 15 mythics, only 10 rares and 11 mythics are worth at least the cost of a pack.  But how does this compare to a normal set?  Currently (at retail prices) there are 24 cards in Shadows over Innistrad worth at least the cost of a booster (which for this exercise I assume is $3).  Shadows over Innistrad is a little weird with it’s flip cards but the number of break even cards is roughly the same.  What’s the problem then?  Finding Eternal Masters boosters at MSRP.  It is suggested, after all.

The Masters Quandry

Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you look at it) Wizards of the Coast, a Hasbro subsidiary, can’t reprint expensive cards into oblivion.  It gets brought up often, but, Wizards of the Coast, a non-Hasbro subsidiary, did that exactly once.  Chronicles was a big problem and they are slowly trying to creep toward a middle ground.  This set will be a lot like Modern Masters and kill the price of a few casual cards but otherwise not make a dent in the prices of decks it is supposed to help.

The other issue with Masters sets is the need to “hold things back” for future Masters sets.  Modern Masters 2015 was generally perceived as underwhelming by the majority of people although it was more widely available at MSRP.  Without another round of reprints from the first set it was difficult to find enough new cards to print.  At some point, if they find it too difficult to reduce the over lap in Masters sets we might just get full set reprints (ie Modern Masters released in 2019).

These issues all culminate into a rather complex question: “How do we satisfy everyone?” I’m not sure there is an answer.

The Future of Eternal Masters

Well some of these cards will likely fluctuate up and down but there are some I am sure will see a sharp decline going into the end of the year.

shardless agentbaleful strixmaelstrom wanderer

All three of these cards made their debut in Planechase 2012.  Coincidentally, Planechase Anthology has already been announced to be including the Planechase 2012 decks and all of the planes.  Baleful Strix has already been reprinted in one supplementary product so it’s already not very expensive but Shardless Agent and Maelstrom Wanderer will likely quickly fall from their $10 pre-order price.  In fact, they may already be lower than $10 by the time this article is out.

Commander

The great Commander resource website, EDHrec.com, was able to get me some data about the playability of Eternal Masters cards. Here is a dump of the frequency of cards from Eternal Masters in the decklists they parse.  Unsurprisingly, Swords to Plowshares, Counterspell, and Sensei’s Divining Top are 3 of the most played cards in their study.  They’re all extremely flexible, cheap, and powerful.  I woudn’t be worried about the prices of any of those changing much (although foils might get a little cheaper with more copies).  The biggest loser I can see on this list is Regal Force.  I expect this card’s price to take a bath similar to Adarkar Valkyrie.  Once a nearly $10 card based mostly on rarity the tiny print run has brought Adarkar Valkyrie into basically bulk rare territory.

Commander players tend to be more casual and even though you don’t need to pay for the cards you put on your decklists online, many people leave out prohibitively expensive cards in large numbers.  As a result I believe that we will not see much of a dip in the price of Mana Crypt.  It’s functionally very similar to Sol Ring (the most popular card in Commander – beating the next card, Command Tower, by about 30%) so the appeal to own a copy or five for your Commander decks is pretty high.  As a result, if the price drops any significant amount it will cross a lot of player’s thresholds into “purchasable.”  Mana Crypt started pre-order pricing on StarCity Games for $50.  As of this writing, it’s sold out at $90 which is just $30 less than the original printing.  The original printing is also sold out so it’s unlikely the demand for these can be satisfied this time.  I’m expecting Mana Crypt to follow Tarmogoyf as the chase mythic in all Eternal Masters sets.
spirit_awakening_riley2

Foils

Is it a little misleading that I’ve intentionally ignored the foil slot in calculating cards you can open in a booster pack to pay for it?  Maybe a little.  However, as of this writing, no stores have posted pre-order prices for foils.  It’s possible they don’t know the math exactly on how little they plan to open for pre-orders or they just don’t want to be the first one to blink.  The first store to set the prices of foils will be planting their flag in the ground and seeing if it sticks.  Some of these foils will be uncharted territory and it’s possible they could be leaving a lot of money on the table by being the first to sell out.  Let’s do a little recap on first time foils.

Technically first time foils (for completeness sake)

emmessi tome field of souls humble monk idealist giant tortoisephantom monster roots tidal wave wake of vultures

These cards all have original pack printings from Urza’s Saga or earlier.  There were no foil cards in those packs yet.  It’s unlikely any of these cards will light up any price graphs.

Expensive first time foils

ashnod's altar tooth and claw worn powerstoneperegrine drakepyroblasthydroblastbaleful strixcontrol magicgamblemalicious afflictionpyrokinesistoxic delugeunexpectedly absentwinter orb

Originally I had separated these into different groups.  One group of Commander foils, one group of Pauper foils, one group of Vintage and Legacy foils, one group of Cube foils, etc.  But I realized that breaking them down that way implies that there is no overlap and that’s just not true.  These first time foils will be worth some order of magnitude more than than their non-foil counter part.  Despite being an uncommon, I think Pyroblast foils will likely command the highest price tag on this list.

Missing Link

So as I stated earlier, Wizards of the Coast, a Hasbro subsidiary, needs to hold some of the best cards for the next set.  What are the biggest missing cards from this set?  Well one obvious one is damna…

port

As many people have already become well aware, Rishadan Port was left off the reprint list this time.  I don’t often talk about Magic Online but this miss hurts MTGO the most.  Rishadan Port was creeping down to about 150 tickets (1 ticket is about $1) while people feared a reprint but immediately shot up 50 tickets once it was announced to not be in the set.   There is some incentive not to reprint Port again so quickly after it was just announced as a Judge foil but this one stings.  Rishadan Port is part of one of the few Legacy decks that doesn’t use any reserve list cards (Death and Taxes).  This card was likely selected to be held back for another Eternal Masters set in 2 years.

jitte

Umezawa’s Jitte is one of the best equipment ever printed and one of the few cards from Betrayer’s of Kamigawa  worth talking about.  This card is not quite as pricey as a lot of things included in Eternal Masters but it’s a really hard card to reprint in a draftable set.  Jitte is frequently seen as a one-man army type card that would almost assuredly be a mythic these days.  Every time we get a set that can reprint Jitte and is evades another printing there is a possibility the price goes up.  Umezawa’s Jitte has a GP Promo version but this was before full year promos.  As a result only 6 months of Umezawa’s Jitte promos means there are not that many to go around.  It’s only saving grace is you don’t often want more than one of this legendary equipment in your Legacy deck.

flusterstorm

Flusterstorm is a card that was “printed” many times online but only twice in paper.  Currently your choices for Flusterstorms in paper are the original Commander printing or judge foils.  At a minimum of almost $60, it’s fair to say Flusterstorm should be on Wizard’s radar for a reprint.  It’s possible that it still is on track to get reprinted this year.  Conspiracy: Take the Crown is going to be released in two short months and could include some Legacy and Vintage reprints with multiplayer applicability. Flusterstorm’s Storm ability plays nicely with a 4 player game (as it was originally intended as a Commander counter spell).  I’m not saying it’s likely, but its possible we get Flusterstorm in Conspiracy: Take the Crown.

show and tell

Show and Tell is a wonderful card.  It’s wonderfully pricey and part of two Legacy decks that don’t lean heavily on the reserve list (Sneak and Show and Reanimator).  It’s also the card that I am most surprised is missing.  If there is anything they could leave out of Eternal Masters to be in Conspiracy: Take the Crown it’s Show and Tell.  That card is easy to put into a draft set because you can control the worst thing put into play.  It also plays pretty nicely with a multiplayer game.  I just hope if it get’s reprinted they use the Urza’s Saga art.  Nothing against Zack Stella, but this one is so much cuter.

counterbalance lotus petal

These last two are not terribly expensive, yet.  I would have expected them to get a reprint to help ease the price while it’s not high.  Wizards has shown reluctance to reprint very expensive cards close to their original rarity especially if they can be detrimental to a draft format.  I’m guessing when we see a Lotus Petal reprint it won’t be at common.

aether vial chalice of the void damnationSnapcaster

Some cards are notably missing from Eternal Masters but I would never expect them to print in an Eternal set.  Aether Vial, Chalice of the Void, Damnation, and Snapcaster Mage are all Modern cards first and foremost.  If we get those in a Masters set, it will be Modern Masters not Eternal Masters.  I know every set goes by and people wonder if we’ll ever get Damnation again.  I’m sure it will come eventually and it will be in a Modern Masters set.

Back to your regularly scheduled programming

Eldritch Moon

We just got the full spoiler for Eternal Masters and we’re about to hit the ground running with Eldritch Moon spoilers.  Generally for Standard sets, spoilers last for two weeks and end the week before the pre-release.  Based on this, Eldritch Moon spoilers should start in about 3 weeks, on June 27th. Eternal Masters will have been released for 17 days before spoilers for the next set start.  I’m expecting some Magic fatigue in the worst kind of way.

Shadows over Innistrad logo

Have you been paying attention to the card prices for Shadows over Innistrad?  They’re reaching near time lows.  When the spoilers start for Eldritch Moon people will begin to buy more as they get re-excited for Standard.  If you’ve been waiting for some prices to go down before they rise again you’re nearing the best times until the late summer.