Tag Archives: Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – Future Proofing

November 10, 2015 Jim Casale 23 Comments

With the wrap up of Grand Prix Seattle / Tacoma (which is really just Tacoma, I don’t understand why Seattle is even mentioned), many people got another taste of the eternal format, Legacy. Many players look at the huge turn out and wonder “why aren’t there more Legacy Grands Prix? Look at how many people went to this one!” While I understand these sentiments from the very vocal Legacy community, I don’t think it’s a good place to invest your future in Magic.

With the announcements from StarCity Games (here), the number of large Magic events is being cut in 2016. StarCity games often had an open every weekend (including some holiday weekends) but has announced at least 5 weekends off in their first of 3 seasons this year (ending April 10th). While I won’t analyze the effect of less organized play opportunities as a whole on Magic, I will point out the breakdown of the 9 events. There are 5 Standard events, 3 Modern events, and only 1 Legacy offering in these 4 months. This cut back on Legacy in favor of Modern is indicative of a larger trend away from player’s non-rotating format of choice from Legacy to Modern. There are a lot of reasons why, but it’s been in the numbers for a while.

How the mighty have fallen, right? Legacy cards have been heralded like blue chip stocks. They have nowhere to go but up, right? Wasteland is technically an uncommon and not part of the reserve list so it could be reprinted at any time. Consumer confidence isn’t high on this card and it’s lack of Legacy play that is causing it to fall.

Even Revised Volcanic Island (arguably the most important land in the format) has seen a downward trend. Although it is nowhere the pre-spike value of a mere $150, I can’t see this card rebounding nearly as fast as Modern investments.

Unlimited edition Volcanic Islands have faired a little bit better because they’re legal in that niche 93/94 format. Given the fact that Volcanic Island was accidentally left off the Alpha print sheet (seriously, go ask a vendor if they have an Alpha Volcanic Island), there are far fewer choices for this dual land in this format. If you want to invest in a dual, this is probably the best one (with scarcity being the only thing that continues to drive it’s price up).

But what about Modern cards? They’re just like Wasteland and can be reprinted. What is happening to their price tags? Well let’s take a look at some cards from Modern Masters that were greatly affected by the reprint.

If you spent that $300 you could have spent to buy 1 Volcanic Island on Glimmervoid or Arcbound Ravager (cards that were not reprinted in Modern Masters 2015) in June, then you could have doubled your money in October. The constant cycle of reprints is pushing the oldest cards to the front of the top gainers page each year.

The ease of turning Standard cards into Modern cards has never been higher with each set adding a few important cards to a Modern deck. In fact, if you own the Standard Atarka Red deck right now you also own a minimum of 16 cards for a Modern burn deck. It’s much easier to make the transition to Modern than Legacy and it’s more easy to support Modern at the LGS level because of sustainable reprints.

That being said, I’m not trying to take a shot at Legacy as a format. I’m just voicing my concerns for continuing to hold cards that are highly influenced by their play in Legacy. I think there are a number of ways Legacy can evolve as a format to allow for better game play and increased interest but I don’t think this is the place to explain that.

Upgrading your Trade Binder

What can we learn from Modern Masters to apply to our portfolio at the end of this year?

This is my go-to target for an easy double up. As long as big mana decks like Tron and Amulet Bloom continue to see play, this will have a home. All it takes is one weekend where Bloom or Tron win to cause a rush to buy Fulminator Mages. The Shadowmoor Fulminator Mage hit highs of $60 before being reprinted, I can’t fathom a world where this doesn’t get back to $40 again before a reprint.

In continuing my trend of picking Modern Masters 2015 creatures, I think Noble Hierarch is another all-star that needs to be looked at. True multi-deck staples will be the quickest to recover. Noble Hierarch also gets some points for being the mainstay of a relatively inexpensive tier 1 deck, Infect.

You know what’s more of a horror than Spellskite’s creature type? It’s one of few cards that has actually increased in price since it was reprinted. It eats Kolaghan’s Command like a champ, protects anyone from Lightning Bolts to the dome, gives Tarmogoyf +2/+2, and prevents Twin and Infect from winning pretty much on the spot. Spellskite is like the perfect passive aggressive significant other that just sits in play protecting you at the potential cost of 2 life. Anyone that doesn’t have multiple of these will be scrambling for them when Modern events kick into high gear again.

Not everything is gold, however. I would avoid any cards that got reprinted in both Modern Masters and Modern Masters 2015. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the trio of Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant, and Vendilion Clique show up as marquee cards in Modern Masters 2017 (or whenever the next Modern Masters set is). Some cards that got reprinted as a mythic but are a little more niche are also probably fine pickups. Mox Opal will be in for a price correction if Ravager and Glimmervoid get printed again. Karn will likely see a jump if Grove of the Burnwillows is in our near future.

You know what’s a real odd one?

Kor Spiritdancer is probably a pretty decent investment for the near future. This card has been on an upward trend since the $30+ Daybreak Coronets got reprinted. Boggles decks are largely a collection of draft commons and Horizon Canopy so they are a perfect budget option for a lot of players. At some point, something in the deck has to be worth something and this is probably it. It’s hard to reprint since the Kor are native to Zendikar and there isn’t an enchantment theme going on like during Rise of the Eldrazi.

Final Thoughts

I really don’t want to hold onto Sensei’s Divining Tops right now. If Legacy is ever going to evolve into a format that is enjoyable to the general player base, that card will need to be banned. It sits on the Modern banned list for similar reasons as to why it will probably eventually get banned.
In my opinion, Wizards needs to figure out a way to print creatures that cost more than one and less than eight that provide exciting game play for Legacy to experience any growth.
Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged cards are at the highest they will be for the next 2 years. I do not expect any kind of jump in January when Oath of the Gatewatch is released. Sell accordingly.
Expect a shake-up on the Modern ban list prior to the Pro-Tour in January. Given the heath of the format, an unban seems more likely than a ban.
I expect a new Kozilek to be in Oath of the Gatewatch. If he is as game ending as Ulamog, expect a green Eldrazi ramp deck to be good.
I don’t expect the Commander 2015 decks to be a total bust. If you can pick up Sword of Selves or Command Beacon in trades they should mature well.
Next week I will bring you some information from the vendors and artists at GP Atlanta

Grinder Finance – Winding Down the Year

November 3, 2015 Jim Casale 4 Comments

With the conclusion of this three-Grands Prix weekend, we draw ever closer to the end-of -year lull in Magic. Let’s talk about some new announcements and discuss the expected price drops in the comings weeks.

If you are a Vorthos player, you may have been expecting this. In this article, Ugin explains to Jace that the only way to stop the Eldrazi is to seal them again. He instructs Jace to go to Innistrad and find Sorin and bring him back to Zendikar. Another important thing that Ugin mentions is that the Eldrazi Titans will planeswalk away when mortally threatened. There are a few expectations we can draw from these events.

Shadows over Innistrad is the start of a new block. It will be treated like a large fall set.
Liliana is MIA in the Zendikar storyline, I expect to see her return in Innistrad (This would be a prime place to reprint Liliana of the Veil without devotion in Standard)
We may see flashback return in SOI but with a Snapcaster Mage RPTQ promo he will likely not return in the set.
We may see an Eldrazi titan escape and attack Innistrad (Given the fact that Oath of the Gatewatch‘s set symbol looks like Kozilek’s head shards, it will probably be Emrakul)

This is all of course speculation but so far the story articles seem to be a reliable way to tell the future.

Why are we going back to Innistrad?

With a real definition of what is “new” and what isn’t, I expect this to continue to in the future and be a conduit for important reprints outside of Modern Masters. We can expect the Fall 2016 set to be a “new” plane.

Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s shift gears and talk about events.

What events are left in the 2015 calendar year?

Do you know how many weekends of Grands Prix are left? After this triple Grands Prix weekend, there are five left on three weekends to close out the year. Seattle/Tacoma (Legacy), Atlanta (Sealed), and Pittsburgh (Modern) are the last three Grands Prix in North America this year. There are two Standard GPs left, one in Brussels and one in Kobe, and that’s it! There is over a month off and then GP Oakland opens up the year with a Standard Grand Prix before almost another month off before the next set of Grands Prix after the release of Oath of the Gatewatch. Thats not a lot of Standard being played outside of the LGS level.

Let’s take a look at the other major circuit, the Star City Games Open Series. There are five SCG opens for the remainder of the year. Four are Standard (Philadelphia, Kansas City, Denver, and Las Vegas) and one is Legacy (New Jersey). That’s also not a lot of opportunities for the rest of the year to play in high level Magic events.

What does this all mean? Well, it precludes the December price dips. You basically have one month to sell or trade any Standard cards you will not need for the rest of the year before their price starts to drop significantly. I already traded away my Gideon, Ally of Zendikar this weekend for Eternal playables. I would recommend dumping any Khans of Tarkir cards especially since there will be no more Standard Pro Tours to breathe new life into them before they rotate.

As you can see from this graph, the post Pro Tour price tag quickly dips into a yearly low in December. If you want to get expensive cards from Battle for Zendikar, I’d wait until then.

Although Gideon doesn’t have a long price history, we can see he’s peaked and is already on his slow descent. I’m just guessing here but I could see Gideon being as cheap as $20 by Christmas. While it’s clear he will be a player in Standard for his entire lifetime, it is unwise to hold copies you’re not actively using. But, it’s not all gloom and doom for a buyer.

These two lands have already shown up in some decks as a way to ramp out huge Eldrazi. It might not be a thing today but I feel like the deck is very close to breaking out. I wouldn’t be surprised if these two lands are the mainstay of a top tier deck in Oath of the Gatewatch. Kind of hilariously, right now that is the basis for one of the cheaper Standard decks as it doesn’t play any fetchlands, Gideons, or Jaces. At about $0.50 per land, I wouldn’t fault you for picking up a playset of each in preparation for Kozilek in Oath of the Gatewatch.

Grand Prix Articles

Do you like the articles that Jeremy (@LengthyXemit) does for Grands Prix? I will be lucky enough to attend the last two American Grands Prix of the year and can provide some commentary for people looking to buy cards. Are there other questions you have for the Grand Prix process?

I took a week off due to some work-related complications but I will have the Pucatrade article for next week! Hope you all had an awesome Halloween and I look forward to your comments below!

Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – This Week in Magic: The Gathering

October 5, 2015 Jim Casale 6 Comments

It’s the week before the Pro Tour and all through the Internet, not a pro player was stirring, not even Tomoharu Saito. After a grueling tournament, two decks that only feature two colors battled it out in the finals of the Star City Games open in Indianapolis. This week we won’t be teaching any lessons. I’m going to go through the news with you.

The Great Fatpack Gouging of 2015

People are up in arms and truly enraged that stores would charge more than MSRP for anything. The Professor (content producer under the Tolarian Community College youtube channel), had some especially fierce criticism for stores that chose to raise their prices to above MSRP.

I respect him a great deal for his huge contributions to the community (seriously if you haven’t checked out his videos I highly recommend them), but I don’t think he, like many people, have considered all of the options. Most stores sell almost every Magic sealed product for under MSRP. The exception is usually with limited print run stuff like From the Vault products and Modern Masters. The only reason to raise prices is because you will sell out of all your product. Large online stores can’t afford to be out of anything. If a customer comes to your website expecting to be able to buy a product and you can’t provide that product, they will buy from competitors. If that competitor has products in stock that you do not multiple times, you will lose that customer. What this means is that prices have to rise to curb demand. Stores are still in the business of selling product but the reality is they need to keep something in stock. You have the option of going to Walmart or Target and trying your luck at picking up a Fat pack but that’s not an option for everyone and the convenience of an online order is worth the $10 to some people.

The other unfortunate problem with selling them at MSRP when in high demand is that people will buy them solely for the purpose of reselling them on auction sites like EBay. At this point the card store doesn’t get the extra money and it’s pocketed by people who don’t help grow the game. I’d rather a store get the money if people are going to pay that much.

100 jace — Source: http://www.mtgsalvation.com/forums/creativity/artwork/340434-in-jace-we-trust

The $100 Man

Saturday afternoon I looked at TCGPlayer and noticed there were only 29 total listings for Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy. Granted there is not usually much supply added on the weekends (stores generally don’t ship/list on weekends because they’re off), it was still unusual to see such low stock. Ten hours later there were three non-foil copies listed. While I don’t think this was a targeted buyout (because there weren’t a ton of copies listed by a single seller), it is indicative of future growth.

He’s pretty much been on a steady rise since he came out. The small divets in his price are mostly due to small supply gluts.

Compared to Liliana, Heretical Healer (the early frontrunner for best walker), Jace seems invincible. Liliana has seen some minor success and continues to fall. Even Nissa — who sees almost as much play as Jace in Standard — has been flat. Why is this?

Well, Jace is a multi-format all-star blue spell that costs two mana. While being a good blue spell in Standard doesn’t always equate into a hit, it almost certainly does in Modern and Legacy (more blue-friendly formats). Jace passes early tests for mana cost and raw card power and continues to over perform in those formats. This card will likely mimic Liliana of the Veil’s pricing for the near future as it will be the most popular Planeswalker in Modern.

Where does he go from here? There’s pretty much nowhere to go but up. Even though we have now seen Mythic rares in Event Decks, it is extremely unlikely we will see this Jace in the near future. The fact that Jace is a flip card makes him cost so much more money to produce so his chance of being in a sealed product are very low.

Starcity Games Open in Indianapolis

I’ll assumed you’ve seen who won but, if not, congratulations to Brian Demars for his win including several turn 4 blow outs. People really like to underestimate the power of the red deck in week 1 and they paid the price. No, not the Ultimate Price, which would have been spectacular versus Demars.

Ultimately it looks like the price will be paid to play these super multi-colored decks. I don’t know if Standard will be as expensive as the all Mythic rare decks from the Doran deck days, but it’s showing here how much the price of Khans of Tarkir fetch lands is having on deck prices. As you can see here, the mostly mono-red deck still plays 10 fetch lands in it’s 21 land mana base. With the rotation of temples, people have to resort more to fetch / battle mana bases which will put more strain on already expensive Khans fetch lands.

Trading Up

Pucatrade continues to be my #1 way to move cards. If you haven’t signed up already, you can use my referral link here. It has some useful tools for pruning your collection and predicting the future.

As of my writing, these are the top traded cards in the last 7 days. It’s pretty clear people want to finish their mana bases asap and I don’t blame them. But does that mean that these are the most popular cards?

With some searching and filter magic you can see the most requested cards are actually basic lands. Unfortunately these filters are only available to Uncommon tier of support. From this we can see there is a large discrepancy in the number of “wants” vs the number of “haves.” Generally when the “Wants” exceed the “Haves” it means that people value the card more than the currently listed Pucatrade price. From this we can determine either the card is over valued by players or it is poised to go up. While I don’t believe this will last long with these basic lands, it is an easy avenue to move large numbers of lands that will be worth a lot less in the coming months.

The Final Act

In closing, this week has been hectic and we will see more shifts as the ebb and flow of the Pro Tour. Will another red aggressive deck win it? Will a Dragonlord spread it’s wings over the Pro Tour? Will See the Unwritten break Ulamog out of his shell?

Rhinosinspace — Credit to this goes to Ty Hill

Or will Siege Rhino win another one? We’ll find out soon and hopefully have some great things to talk about.

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Grinder Finance – The Battle for Zendikar Foils

September 28, 2015 Jim Casale 5 Comments

While there are not a lot of opportunities are this point to make or save money by purchasing cards from Battle for Zendikar, there are interesting foil trends and a lot of commons and uncommons that should be on your radar.

Pre-release promos

With so many possible promotional cards, it’s hard to pin down exactly how much some of these cards will cost. Right now the price of a pre-release foil is equivalent to a pack foil pre-order. I’d wager to guess that won’t stay true forever. In most cases the pre-release foil will fall under the price of a pack foil so it’s probably a good time to trade them away. In most cases where they don’t, they are usually still the same price. The easiest ones to trade away will be the planeswalker and legendary creatures but it’s not impossible to trade away some bulk promos like Aligned Hedron Network ( I traded mine on Pucatrade). Now is also the best time to move foils with premiums like Planeswalkers. I’d be especially keen to trade away walkers that cost more than 3 because they likely won’t see any eternal play. Gideon’s current price tag won’t last forever.

The Diamonds in the Rough

Does your lgs have a bulk foil box? Need a throw in to make up a few dollars in trades? Here are a few of my favorite commons from the set I like in foil.

This is Dispel’s third printing (all of which had a foil) but this is the first really standout art. I expect this Jace art Dispel to carry a premium for Modern players for years to come.

This is a weird effect, it’s probably good enough for most green Commander decks, though there is always a possibility it can be abused later since its effect costs “no mana.” I don’t expect to have a hard time trading any of these that I pick up.

This card might look like a poor man’s Volrath’s Stronghold, and it is, but mono black Commander decks are some of the most popular mono-colored decks. I’d expect it to easy replace in a Swamp in those decks and be a value land in many others. Many black decks already play Expedition Map to search up Urborg or Cabal Coffers.

This card has probably the best long term common from the set. I can’t imagine a way they can reprint a colorless spell outside of Zendikar. This card looks a lot like Unstable Obelisk.

The key differences are that exile is a much better answer than destroy and there is a surprise factor that comes with Scour from Existence. I expect at the very least, if you’re going to play an Unstable Obelisk you will also play a Scour from Existence.

What uncommons are worth picking?

This card, and all of the retreats really, are pretty easy slam dunks. While Retreat to Coralhelm has already been sneaking into Modern decks, I can’t imagine any of them not being played at some time. Commander players really like playing their 11th, 12th, or 16th land so they will likely want to get value from them.

Foil Sowing Salts are $8-10 each. This card does the same thing while being easier to cast. I can’t imagine it doesn’t eventually eclipse Sowing Salt as the land destruction of choice in Modern.

Sylvan Scrying is such an important role player in Modern but I can’t imagine it will see much Standard play. There will be a time when these foils end up super cheap and you will love picking them up and holding them for a Modern season spike. All it takes is one high profile finish to spike role player cards.

This card has a very unique effect. I expect we will see more colorless creatures in the next set that will make this better. Right now it’s not embarrassing to play but we really need some more 4-5 power Eldrazi to make it shine.

All of the Blighted lands are pretty decent pickups. The white one is probably the worst and the green one is the best. They are likely to keep some sort of Commander playability.

Foil Mindstones can be found for $5-8 with two printings. I expect this is the sweet spot between a Mind Stone and a Dreamstone Hedron which should make it pretty popular. It shouldn’t be hard to get these easily in trades.

Cards that reduce the mana cost of spells are always a corner case for broken things to happen. I don’t know if this guy is better than Goblin Electromancer but he could follow a similar trajectory and could break out even more if he becomes a force in some weird deck in Vintage (where you are more likely to be able to abuse this ability). At the very least he will be an important part of red and blue Commander decks with artifact sub-themes. Given Wizard’s recent history pushing that theme in those colors I would not expect this to stay bulk.

Final Thoughts:

Expeditions look like they might be a little more common than people thought. The market for them doesn’t seem to be there to sustain prices. With the limited supply from the pre-release prices are already racing to the bottom. If you have one you don’t need, I would try to trade it or sell it.
That being said, the expedition supply is all anecdotal at this point. Without a large retailer opening hundreds of cases of product it’s hard to know how often they appear.
The price of battle lands will likely drop quickly. Many decklists I have seen will not be playing 4 copies of any of them. Even 5 color decks likely won’t play more than 2 of any of them.
Khans Fetchland prices will probably peak next February or June. If you have extra ones I would choose one of those months to move them.
There is so much bad press on Sensei’s Divining Top. It survived the last Legacy ban list but got banned in the rarely played Duel Commander. This card will likely never get reprinted but I can’t imagine it surviving all formats forever. It promotes so many bad game play patterns. I would look to move mine before I get caught with my pants down.
Hardened Scales is almost $2 more than Siege Rhino. I don’t really understand why but I would likely not want to play any deck in Standard without Dromoka’s Command.

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Tag Archives: Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – Future Proofing

Grinder Finance – Winding Down the Year

Grinder Finance – This Week in Magic: The Gathering

Grinder Finance – The Battle for Zendikar Foils

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