Tag Archives: Magic finance

Battle for Zendikar Standard Possibilities

Let’s take a look at some decks this weekend from Grand Prix Indianapolis that are somewhat different than what we’ve seen before. I like taking a look at decks that are up-and-comers, and taking a look at the decks that made the Top 8 of a Grand Prix are definitely worth considering to see if they are the newest decks on the block that will continue to see success in Standard.

Links to the decklists:

http://magic.wizards.com/en/events/coverage/gpind15/top-8-decklists-2015-11-01

Bant Hardened Scales

So it looks like there is now a legitimate reason that this former bulk rare has reached new heights. While the previous high of $5.50 has now lowered to $4, we might see another spike of Hardened Scales in the near future based on last weekend’s performance. Of course, it is going to be very short lived since HS is from Khans of Tarkir, which is coming closer and closer to rotation. I would advise that any extra copies be sold into the hype – and then later on, when Hardened Scales rotates, you can pick up copies again because this card is mini Doubling Season and I expect it to have casual appeal for a long time.

Other cards from the deck worth talking about are Managorger Hydra and Avatar of the Resolute, along with Dromoka’s Command and Hangarback Walker. The position of these cards will be different moving forward because they all survive the next rotation when Shadows over Innistrad is released. Now granted, I highly doubt we’re getting anything insane with this next return to Innistrad like Snapcaster Mage or Liliana of the Veil but I think we’re definitely getting a Werewolf legendary creature (since last time Wizards admitted that was one of their biggest mistakes with Innistrad and Dark Ascension was not having a R/G legendary werewolf to complete the tribe like Olivia Voldaren did for Vampires and Grimgrin, Corpse-Born did for Zombies) and other green components that the deck could consider.

Anyways, with Managorger Hydra and Avatar of the Resolute, I’m not sure what their position will be after rotation. They both feel like they only fit into a deck where Hardened Scales is the key card, and with HS rotating I’m not sure if they will be able to continue to make the cut. Hopefully though, Shadows will introduce something that also plays nicely with +1/+1 counters since that seems to be a thing that Wizards supports pretty heavily these days – especially in terms of Limited environments where plenty of set mechanics revolve around +1/+1 counters. I am seeing that both cards are trending upwards, and a continuation of Hardened Scales success with the potential printing of another static effect that plays well with +1/+1 counters may create a bright future for these cards. Hold on to any copies you might have, with possibly stocking extra copies of Avatar since it is the cheaper of the two options (both dollar-wise and mana cost-wise).

Dromoka’s Command Hangarback Walker will continue to be major Standard players. I can’t fault anyone for picking up copies now, so if you’re going to do so I would do it sooner rather than later. The future price of both hards have been hindered by reprints in supplemental products, however I think most of us remember that this did nothing in the long run to reduce the price of Thragtusk. I think they are both fine speculation targets, with preference going to Walker over Command since colorless will fit into more decks than multicolored. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see Hangarback Walker back at $20 or higher after Khans and Fate Reforged rotate from Standard. I’ll definitely be keeping close tabs on these cards to determine what rotation will look like for key role players in the new Standard schedule. It makes me wonder if baby Jace will continue the upward trend past $100…

Esper Tokens

This deck seems to be rather new to the scene, as opposed to other decks like Hardened Scales being around but not seeing as many Top 8 results as the other Standard archetypes like Jeskai Black. The key cards to the Esper Tokens strategy are Secure the Wastes, Sorin, Solemn Visitor, and Gideon, Ally of Zendikar. Knight of the White Orchid is an interesting inclusion from Origins that we should watch moving forward, since it will survive rotation along with Secure the Wastes and Gideon. Finally, last mentions from this strategy include Painful Truths and Shambling Vent, with Vent seeing a full four copies being played in the manabase.

Speaking of which, the Battle for Zendikar manlands are super cheap right now. With Shambling Vent at $6 and Lumbering Falls at a paltry $2.50, I don’t think you can go wrong by starting to stock up on extra copies of these cards. We haven’t reached the low point of BFZ cards yet since set redemption will need to occur, however man lands have generally been very successful in Standard decks past due to their ability to both fix mana and become creatures in a pinch when needed. I think that the five man lands throughout the BFZ block will all see Standard play in one form or another in their Standard lives, so the adage of “invest in real estate” really rings true to me for this cycle.

Unfortunately, cards like Wingmate Roc and Sorin aren’t worth picking up since their rotation is coming up in a short five months. We might see some more movement in these cards from the GP results, so my advice here is to sell into any hype that the cards might see since the coming months are only going to lower the price of these mythics until Khans rotation.

R/G Landfall

     

Finally! We have a deck that is based off Battle for Zendikar rather than the other way around! Oh wait, there are still only nine cards in the deck that are actually from BFZ… Hey, I guess we need to start somewhere, right?

I have to admit that I did not see Snapping Gnarlid actually having Standard potential. However, I’ve been proven wrong in this case, as both Scythe Leopard and Snapping Gnarlid were key components of the deck that was able to propel it into the Top 8 of the Grand Prix. Outside of the Landfall creatures, the deck focuses on pump spells and haste creatures in order to finish out games quickly. This deck is truly a Stompy deck to the core – play some creatures, attack with them, and pump them up as much as possible for maximum damage. It has a much different feel than Atarka Red because rather than burn spells the deck focuses on cheap creatures with pump effects. It’s actually a very interesting deck that rewards players for being able to maximize the number of triggers they can make through Landfall and Prowess, with pump spells to push in the last bit of damage.

     

Unfortunately, many of the deck’s pump spells are rotating when Shadows over Innistrad is released, with the key cards Become Immense and Temur Battle Rage among them. I don’t think I would expect this deck to survive rotation unless Oath and Shadows give use something that is similar. You never know though, Steppe Lynx was pretty awesome when it was in Standard, and I expect Wizards to push Landfall even more in Oath. One way or another the Landfall creatures are sticking around. The issue is what type of pump spells are released with the next sets, so I’ll be keeping a close eye on new pump spells due to the explosive nature of Landfall aggro decks.

These three decks were the most interesting, at least to me, of the Top 8 of GP Indianapolis. I’m starting to get excited again for the future directions that Standard could take! Thanks for reading and let me know in the comments what decks you’ve seen take off since BFZ was introduced to Standard.

Developments from the Pro Tour Road

(It’s been a while since I wrote a freely-available article, so I wanted to take this opportunity to do so. I hope you enjoy! – Corbin)

By the time this article comes out, you’ll be knee-deep in Pro Tour speculation, with all the pros gathering in Wisconsin to battle it out for the plane of Zendikar (and up to $40,000 on the line). Personally, I’ve been on the road for a week at this point, from Grand Prix Madison to a bus and some downtime in Milwaukee. I’m not usually much of a story guy, but I can safely say that fun has been had, drafts have been drafted, and Canadian Highlander is the best new format I’ve encountered since EDH.

So how about one quick story: Marshall Sutcliffe and I were playing a game earlier today, and I—having not built my own deck for the format yet—was simply playing my Karador, Ghost Chieftain Commander deck with my commander shuffled in. It’s far from optimized for the format, but due to the grindy nature of the deck, it actually competes reasonably well with some of the decks in the Canadian Highlander. Anyway, there were some great games today, from Marshall Mind Twisting me for five only to see me shrug it off and go to town over the next ten turns with Life from the Loam and cycling lands on the way to a win.

But the best story is probably the following: I had to mulligan twice, and my hand by the fifth turn was Unburial Rites, Sun Titan, Karmic Guide, and Animate Dead, and I had just cast Oblivion Ring on Marshall’s Liliana of the Veil. With four lands in play and nothing else to do, my hand was completely dead. Luckily, Marshall had my back and Mind Twisted me for five off a Grim Monolith. I untapped, flashbacked Unburial Rites, returned Sun Titan, returning Animate Dead, returning Karmic Guide, returning Acidic Slime. Pretty sick.

After a few turns of battling like this, Marshall was at one life and had wiped the board. We both whiffed for a few turns, then I topdecked Birthing Pod. He followed by topdecking an answer. I topdecked Makeshift Mannequin, starting the chain over. Given that I had Swords to Plowshares in hand to Marshall’s no cards in hand and Grindstone in play, I felt fairly safe from Painter’s Servant combo. It would take an absurd topdeck to beat me.

Which means, of course, that Marshall ripped Dig Through Time to find Fabricate (to fetch Painter’s Servant), then had exactly enough mana to Muddle the Mixture my removal spell. That’s just one of the crazy awesome games I’ve seen out of this format, and I highly recommend giving it a look.

Could it be financially relevant? Maybe. The format has been around for a while, but hasn’t taken off, nor do I think it necessarily will, given that it appeals primarily to competitive players. I will say that it’s already more of a thing than Tiny Leaders, so I hope we don’t see a repeat of that debacle. If there’s interest (let me know!), I could revisit this topic in the coming weeks with a more financially based perspective. I tentatively have a retrospective on my post-rotation Standard picks slated for next week, so just let me know what you want to see!

Now, let’s get on to some more immediately-relevant matters.

Standard Spikes

We’ve seen some major movement over the last few weeks, and while much of it has been expected (and predicted in this column), there’s still plenty worth talking about.

Let’s start with Dragonlord Ojutai. Still the best finisher in Standard (and in Canadian Highlander if you’re Randy Buehler), Ojutai has doubled in price over the last two weeks. Truthfully, there’s not much to say here except that Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy (which I wrote about in detail last week) will continue to be played across the field, and Ojutai will almost always accompany it. I don’t expect the price to crater anytime soon.

Dragonlord Ojutai

The same goes for Den Protector, which just keeps going and going. I’m going to be honest: there’s not much reason to believe that Dragons of Tarkir cards won’t continue climbing, or at the least remain steady, for the next few weeks and months. The set was, unsurprisingly, a combination of not heavily opened and very, very good.

Which leads me to Ojutai’s Command, which as you saw in Monday’s Floor Report from LengthyXemit (related: I’m the content manager around these parts, so let me know if you want to see more of those). On topic, Ojutai’s Command was bought out on site at Grand Prix Madison at $3 and under, and the growth on this has been steady. I cannot stress enough that this returns Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, which seems to be the most important card in the format. I see this easily moving past $5 and maybe to $10 on a post-Pro Tour spike, and I love picking these up at Friday Night Magic.

Other cards that have shown strong movement are Mantis Rider and Dromoka’s Command. These were both major calls here a few weeks ago, and while another one, Rattleclaw Mystichas shown only marginal growth, these two are steadily rising and even exploding.

I’ve seen Event Decks come and go, and just like it has in the past, the printing hasn’t destroyed prices like many feared. Hangarback  Walker has shrugged it off, while Dromoka’s Command has in fact grown from $3 to $7.

dromokascommand

If you’re in on any of these from when we tagged them as pickups one to two months ago, the time to sell will be after the Pro Tour concludes this weekend. Sunday through Wednesday will be the peak for many of these prices. Remember when the time comes to not be greedy, and instead be happy to lock in profits.

Fetch Lands

Much has been made of how much many dealers are paying on-site for fetch lands, with prices on site for Polluted Delta and Flooded Strand going as high as $22. That’s nuts for a card with a price of $25 TCGplayer mid, and the truth is these may not come down for a while. With Standard stretching so much to four- or even five-color manabases—and even the aggressive decks being two colors with fetches—these could continue to climb over the next three months.

But don’t panic. These are being driven heavily by Standard, and while I imagine many players will hold onto these even after rotation, they will likely fall some before rotation hits. That’s what we saw with Zendikar fetches and with Return to Ravnica shock lands, and I expect the same trend to repeat. Still, there’s definitely value in having these in your binder right now. I’m also not definitively opposed to selling these at $20 or more now in cash, because there’s little reason to believe you won’t be able to reacquire them at at least $20 in six months. For reference, Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn fell to $10 to $12 in the same respective time period.

Zendikar Expeditions

These have certainly come down rather quickly. Remember that a large amount of product (I’m not applying a made-up percentage, just speaking in generalities), is opened within the first two weeks of a set’s lifetime. I don’t think we’re at the valley on these yet, but I also don’t think we’re that far off. People have been rushing to sell these because the majority of people would rather have hundreds of dollars over a single vanity item, and those who do want to splurge for them aren’t in any rush to pick them up as a result.

But if the behavior of fetch lands over the past two months tells us anything, it’s that sets become “old” very quickly, and something that was plentiful seemingly yesterday gets rare fast. Keep a close eye on Zendikar Expeditions if you think you might want to acquire them, because the floor can’t be that far away.

A Called Shot

I made this a Pick of the Week on Brainstorm Brewery a few weeks back (along with Wingmate Roc), but I want to reiterate it here. There are very few surprises left in cards at this point, as we haven’t seen any huge impact (yet) from Battle for Zendikar, and nearly everything that we expected to spike has spiked already.

Hidden Dragonslayer hasn’t yet. But you better believe it’s on the way. Look at this chart.

Hidden Dragonslayer chart

That’s the look of a card about to explode. There will be plenty of people playing Green-White Megamorph at the Pro Tour, and Dragonslayer is almost always at least a two-of. In addition to killing big things, it also is a fine lifelinking two-drop against Atarka Red. Combine that with a chart looking like this, and you have a recipe for a card you can trade for at $1 at FNM and sell for $5 next week. Warden of the First Tree is less exciting given that it’s showing no momentum at $3, but I’d also keep an eye on it this weekend, given its status as a mythic.

See You at the Pro Tour

That’s it for this week. I hope you tune into the Pro Tour this weekend (I’ll be the guy in the background typing on his laptop). Until next time, as always, thanks for reading!

–Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter/Twitch/YouTube

Floor Reports: Grand Prix Madison

Editor’s Note: Hey everyone, something special for you today. Jeremy (@LengthyXemit) is one of the true binder grinders of the world. While other people are running around at a Grand Prix having fun, he’s off sorting 40,000 bulk cards or working with the dealers on site. I’m thrilled to have him sharing his thoughts on recent events with us, and today we have a report on the Grand Prix in Madison that just wrapped up yesterday.
Hello!
My name is Jeremy. For those of you who don’t know, I attend pretty much every Grand Prix to grind Magic cards so that I can pay for college. I supply pretty much all the cards at my LGS: Valhallas Gate. I’ve written GP reviews on Reddit in the past and was invited to post one here. There were quite a few interesting developments at GP Madison that I thought you guys should know about. First off though, let’s start with the mainstay at every GP.

Vendors:

Power Nine.com:

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Power Nine was the first booth that anyone saw on their way into the convention center. The shop is owned by Dan Bock, a controversial figure in the mtgfinance world if one were to go by the feedback shown on both Reddit and Twitter. However, I had nothing but a positive experience when dealing with them at this GP. They were making offers on any card that approached the booth, something that is interesting for people looking to Ogre five-row boxes of bulk cards by sorting cards into rows of the prices they want to get for each card and having vendors pick through the box. Ogre himself was again working for them this weekend, with a smile on his face and a fat stack of cards on his buy mat. I sold around $400 of cards to Power Nine over the weekend, and was also able to get 15 cents on certain rares that they picked out in my bulk rare box. Their booth always had people selling to them even at the beginning of the rounds, most likely due to the fact that their actual shop was less than a half an hour from the event.

CoolstuffInc

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CoolStuffInc was the next booth over. I sold a little under $700 of cards to their buyers Mark and Jason. They were both very friendly and bought small things like Emblems that most people don’t realize you can buylist. I mainly sold them stuff that I knew they were paying the highest on from looking at their buylist online. They did not deviate from the buylist given to them at the beginning of the GP and did not change buy prices on anything over the weekend.

Chimera:

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Chimera was one of the fresh faces at this GP. It seemed like they brought every single sealed product they had, as well as every single graded card. Their buylist was noticeably lower than any other vendor, and I didn’t sell them anything. However, they also brought damaged and foreign binders that are commonplace for any vendor at a Grand Prix. As a player, you can get a discount on a played or foreign card, and they liquidate stock that has been rotting on their shelves for a while. Because I was one of the first people on site Friday, I got one of the first looks at their binders. I was able to pick up a Heavily Played Alpha Clone for $10, and six 9th Edition Russian Grave Pacts for $4 each. I picked up the Clone for my personal Old School deck, but the grave pacts are going to make great trade fodder for local commander players in my area

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Channel Fireball Pic

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Channel Fireball had a great buylist sitting next to Chimera. They were offering generous trade amounts in credit for certain cards, something that you could certainly use to your advantage when trading into older format staples. Unlike GP Oklahoma City, they weren’t just offering credit on foils this time around and as a result it seemed to me that their booth was much busier this time. I sold them $200 of casual cards such as Auriok Champions and Field Marshals. The buyers were friendly enough, but it seemed like they had a small amount of high-end inventory compared to Grand Prix in the past.

Aether Games

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Aether has consistently had the highest buy prices on staples at the past three Grand Prixs I have attended, and this time was no different. They had the highest buy prices on fetch lands at the beginning of the GP, hoping to snag as many as possible from people looking to cash out at 100% profit in under a year. They were also the only vendor to stock the popular Hareruya sleeves, and people were happy to pay $12 for 3 packs of them. I sold Aether close to $1500 of popular staples such as fetchlands, shocks, and Modern Masters 2015 staples. They were also paying $50 on the popular Tasipurr playmats . Their buylist Friday for Jace, Vryn Prodigy was $60, which was high enough that I would have sold them all of my copies if I had any remaining. I think they got their fill of Jaces, as their buy price slowly dipped down each day. Ojutai also spiked throughout the tournament from SCG results, and their buylist went from 13 to 15, then 16, then 20 and then finally going as high as 22. They were also selling Knight of the Reliquary for $9 on Friday, and then put them on their buylist for as high as $10 on Saturday. I also bought quite a few staples from them that were priced around TCGLow, such as Beta basics , Stony Silences and Tasigurs. I picked up Russian Khans fetch lands that only commanded a 30% premium compared to their English counterparts which did not reflect current Ebay and TCG prices. I feel that these are a good investment, as there is very little Russian Khans compared to English out there and there are no Russian Onslaught fetchlands.

Savage TCG

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Savage TCG was the other new vendor at this Grand Prix. Their prices were mediocre and were not competitive enough on staples for me to sell them to them. They probably had the lowest traffic of all of the vendors in my opinion, but the people that did sit down with them were selling them hundreds of cards at a time, perhaps taking advantage of certain buylist numbers that I wasn’t aware of.

Pink Bunny Games

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Pink Bunny was also there. Normally, I tend to stay away from them after multiple bad experiences both online and in person. At this GP, they were in the top three average buylist prices out of all the vendors for everything. They seemed quite happy with the amount of people standing in line waiting to sell cards to them. I didn’t sell them anything, but did pick up two copies of Lion’s Eye Diamond for $65 that I had wanted for my personal storm deck.

The Fetch Frenzy

Flooded Strand
Almost every single vendor wanted as many fetches as they could grab their hands on at the GP. Aether started out with the highest buylist on polluted Delta at $20. On Saturday, Pink Bunny started offering $21 on Deltas in order to get copies in. Aether responded by matching their buy price of $21 a couple of hours later. ChannelFireball didn’t pay any higher than $18 all weekend on Deltas, and CoolStuff didn’t deviate from $17. The other vendors offers were lower than this according to the buylists and numbers that I asked each booth about.

Pro Tour Profits

A well known pro set the tables abuzz Friday night. Tomoharo Saito decided to buy out every copy of three cards at the GP from each vendor. He bought out Ojutai’s Command, Hangarback Walker, and Oblivion Sower. Ojutai’s Command had been seeing play in the “Dark Jeskai” Standard deck. The night before Dark Jeskai would run the tables in the SCG Standard Open, Saito had already bought out the entire hall of this card. Hangarback Walker has not dipped too much after its reprint, and he may have bought these to restock his store in Japan. The card that could have the most interesting financial performance is Oblivion Sower. Saito bought out all copies under $7 (over 200 copies), which means that he might have a sweet tech that he is saving for next week’s pro tour. The fact that he was paying higher than TCG Mid at the time raises quite a few eyeballs. I personally traded for the few remaining copies on the floor Saturday morning from people that hadn’t heard the news yet.
Overall, GP Madison was a blast. Vendors are clamoring for fetch lands, and a well-known player might see a financial windfall if his speculating pays off at the Pro Tour. I was able to play Randy Buehler in Old School Magic, which was definitely a cool experience and shows that the format is starting to grab even the most well-known players. While I was able to grab the first two games, Buehler absolutely stomped me the next seven games.
I hope you guys can learn something from my opinions and information from GP Madison.
Feel free to comment below or reach out to me on twitter @LengthyXemit

Bonus Question:
If you had $100 to start your MTGFinance portfolio what would you buy?

“Collection at buylist” – Ogre
“Original Zendikar Lands at a quarter or less” – Ryan Bushard
“Bulk Rares at 10 cents as long as I had an out”- CoolstuffInc Buyer
“Bulk C/U at 3 per K” – Floor Grinder.
“A collection from a local player” – this editor

PROTRADER: Invisible Hand Hard at Work

My name is Sigmund and I’m a capitalist. I believe in the Invisible Hand and all the dictates of supply and demand in the realm of MTG finance. This means I embrace all the positives – and inevitable negatives – of such a system.

I’ve been hearing many disgruntled voices lately berating one body of people or another for their business practices. Wizards of the Coast is executing sets poorly by mismanaging print runs and introducing new “rarities” via Expeditions. Local game stores are unfairly price gouging on new products when they receive less supply than anticipated. Even Hasbro cannot escape the pitchforks, receiving blame for manipulating Wizards and poorly executing an online gaming platform.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and I’m not going to sit here and decry that everyone needs to embrace capitalism as I have. But everyone should at least be aware of the underlying drivers that have gotten us into certain pricing situations. And if you take away nothing from this article but one thing, I hope that one thing is simply that there isn’t a single body to blame for certain pricing behaviors. Oh, and you may learn a thing or two about MTG economics along the way.

Ready for another off-the-beaten-path type of finance column? Here we go!

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