THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT NEW SPOILED CARDS! Scroll to the bottom! Most recent update: Wednesday Morning.
Okay, okay, so today was supposed to be the continuation on analytics, and in truth, I got that piece pretty far along before I decided to switch gears. That article is still going to happen, but something happened this week, and time is really of the essence here, so the analytics piece got bumped.
These were the five cards of the week on DailyMTG this week, billed as an homage to cards that were once banned in Legacy, but have since been unbanned. It was stated that this was in honor of Eternal Masters, although previews do not start until the coming Monday (so you see why we need to discuss this now!). Of those five cards, we have a pretty wide range of reprintability, and we are going to use each of them to explore the possibilities of the upcoming release. There is going to be a slow roll-out of the set, so I plan on updating this article over the course of Week 1 of spoilers (I assume we will have two weeks total). Make sure to check back each day next week! Okay, so I listed the cards up top in the order WotC posted them in, but I’m going to go in my own order now:
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Going with a bunch of small topics today, rather than one big one. You know the drill by now.
ANALYTICS VS PERCEPTION: One of the biggest differences between Magic and other sports (YES, I SAID IT JOCKS. COME AT ME.) is that Magic has a fear of analytics. This is not a new phenomenon; WotC actively tried to obscure information as early as Alpha, putting an Island on the rare sheet and not publicly disclosing set lists or rarities. Currently, Wizards is throttling results coming from Magic Online as a means of slowing the solution of constructed formats (that we are also in a downturn in large paper events is coincidental, but adds to the issue). Sports, on the other hand, is experiencing a renaissance of sorts based on analytics-driven content and the ubiquity of fantasy sports.
Fantasy sports WOULD be cooler if Monster Manuals were involved.
The major difference, of course, is the pieces that are used to play the game. Professional athletes are playing mostly-solved games (“score more points!”), with differences in strategy and philosophy that are largely just nuance compared to the classic match-up of Red Deck Wins versus Blue-White Control. There is also a large industry built on the generation, analysis, and applications of the statistics generated by games played, both internally and among the public. In the case of Magic, the crunching of those types of numbers is believed to have a teleological outcome of winnowing down the viability of various archetypes until the format in question is “solved” (either in the case of there being only one “REAL” deck, or there being an equally unfavorable ‘Rock-Paper-Scissors’ scenario). Also, whereas sports teams and leagues are selling the product on the field, Wizards is more accurately selling the players. It’s in WotC’s best interest for you to think that there are lots of good cards available, and know nebulously that some are better than others, but once there is a clear best, it diminishes sales, attendance, and interest (or so they say).
What is interesting to me right now is what fills the void in this circumstance. Esper Dragons had a Top 8 spot in the Pro Tour, and just won the GP in Canada. Sounds like a good deck, right? Except that those two results are actually outliers in the broader context- of ten Esper Dragons players at the PT, the Top 8 deck was the only one to even make Day Two. Similarly, the Esper Dragons decks that didn’t make the Top 8 in Toronto did terribly. The perception that this deck is good, heck even just playable, is backed up by perceived results and simultaneously refuted by analytics.
Is Dragonlord Ojutai elite?
Those of you who remember Ghost Dad1 from Ravnica standard will see the correlation- a deck that was over-represented relative to both its quality and power level (even in relation to similar decks such as Hand in Hand). Of course, Magic’s community is much more connected and communicative than it was back then, so these incongruencies are likely to be solved, but it is an interesting quirk to the current system.
Let me know what you think about this- is Esper Dragons just bad, or is it yet to be optimized? How much should WotC allow in terms of information that can be mined for data? Is it better or worse for the game?
DREDGING UP THE PAST: Today is the absolute last chance to buy in on Golgari Grave-Troll, Bloodghast, and any of those other Modern staples if you haven’t already. I’m not sure that this is one of the best decks in the format yet (more on that later), but when Dredge is good it is GOOD.
Here is your real target right now- Duel Decks: Izzet vs Golgari.
Duel Decks: Overrated Guild vs Underrated Guild
Check and see if your store has any of these left floating around (this is not the one with Remand, so your odds are better of stumbling across them). This box has Life From the Loam, Isochron Scepter, Eternal Witness, Golgari Grave-Troll, Golgari Thug, a FOIL Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind, as well as a bunch of cheap but playable in casual rares like Doomgape and Gleancrawler. Buying these at $20 is a steal, considering that the Loam and GGT are about to put you even already. Golgari Thug is often a 4x in Dredge, and I’m pretty sure you get two of them. There are even Pauper staples in here!
Sadly the only supplemental product with a Bloodghast in it also had Verdant Catacombs, so you probably won’t find any of those anywhere in the wild (if you do, look for Rat’s Nest also).
Some of these Dredge decks appear to also be playing Prized Amalgam, but that is probably going to be one of the last things to tick up as there are no other real points of demand. It also doesn’t seem like the deck NEEDS that card to succeed, so it could possibly be cut (the deck doesn’t need a threshold of black creatures since we don’t have access to Ichorid).
Now, here’s the next level play- memorize that set symbol.
Wait, Stinky is in this set too?! Holy cow!
It’s unlikely that your local [BIG BOX RETAIL STORE] has any of these in boxes left, but it’s POSSIBLE that the cards are still available there. Most national big box chains don’t actually buy product from WotC, they instead deal with middle-man distributors, who are in charge of managing the supply. These are the folks who stock and restock, and who often remove old product that gets repackaged or otherwise reintegrated into their system. One of their ways of moving this repossessed product is through clear boxes that typically contain 4 opened pre-constructed products. These aren’t official WotC offerings, but are instead the distributors unloading stuff that they don’t have a use for. If you keep your set symbols list handy, you are likely to see that maybe a few of these are left in the mix.
WHAT IT TAKES IN MODERN: This is somewhat related to the last two topics. How many decks are there in Modern? According to my preferred Top 8s aggregator (MTGDecks.net), there are exactly fifty listed archetypes (one of which being the catch-all classification of “Rogue”). If we assume that all of these decks are equal in both their quality of construction and pilot AND equally represented in a given field (they aren’t),then each deck has a 2% chance of winning [TOURNAMENT X]2. But given that that isn’t the case, it is important understand that the decks that are higher than 2% are pulling away from other decks, rather than staying at an artificial floor of 2%.
Barring extreme examples like the Eldrazi decks from PT Oath, Modern decks are not going to have the same high percentages of Standard decks, just because there are so many more options. If there are ten real decks in Standard (some formats have had more, some have had less), then your theoretical floor is 10%. For a Modern deck to reach 10%, it would have to entirely invalidate four different archetypes to the point that they are effectively 0%.
Smashing reality AND the status quo.
The best case for us as finance-minded folk is for that wobbling top of 2% equity to not topple over- meaning that the most amount of cards have at least a percentage of the market as a whole. Of course, this also reinforces my personal philosophy of not buying too deeply into Modern, because you’re either betting on new decks to enter into the pie chart (further reducing that percentage), or upsetting it by causing one deck to overtake points from so many others and spiking (which can, as recent experience tells us, result in a significant banning).
Let me know what you think about this last topic, as we are going to be going pretty deep into it next week. For science!
Best,
Ross
1A deck name that has only gotten worse given current events.
Today we are going to talk about Standard. Not entirely focusing on this particular format (as in, the current Standard environment), but rather the structural mechanics that keep the system moving. Standard is worth discussing, even if you don’t play it, for these reasons, because they are the essential underpinning of the majority of Magic Finance’s activity.
Standard, unlike all other formats (currently), has a bottom in rotation. Once cards rotate out, the majority of them become devalued due to lack of demand and larger application. This is even often the case with format-defining cards like Thragtusk and Boros Reckoner. The trade-off, however, is that Standard is the de facto constructed format, and the overwhelming majority of constructed events are Standard. Subsequently, there is always a high amount of content generated on Standard (even during times when the format itself is less than healthy), which both helps feed and generate demand. From a tournament organizer perspective, I can tell you that it is infinitely safer to guarantee attendance to a Standard event than any other format.
Of course, you probably knew all of this already.
Let’s start by defining and identifying some key markers in Standard, and then evaluate what they mean for the format as a whole.
Critical Mass: A concept that gets mentioned primarily during deck-building process is critical mass. This is the idea of having a threshold quantity of cards that do either the same or very similar things. In current Standard, I would say that we have a critical mass of white 2/1s, a laDragon Hunter, Kytheon, Hero of Akros, and Expedition Envoy. Now, while these cards themselves do not comprise the entirety of an archetype, they do strongly enable the White Weenie strategy by ensuring one or more copies in a statistically significant percentage of opening hands. The magic number for “must have” effects in deck construction is 8.51, and having 12 allows you to play the full set of the two best, and then enough of the rest to suit your needs. Knowing what your critical mass effects are give you an early indicator of what archetypes are likely to be viable in the low-information period that is a new format. The interesting part is that the critical mass pieces are not always the gainer in that situation- rather, cards like Always Watching and Gideon, Ally of Zendikar are the financial winners because they push the strategy over the top (while conveniently representing a critical mass of playable “Anthem” effects).
I’ll make this same joke again later.
Bottlenecks: This is not really the opposite of a critical mass, but it’s kind of similar? Bottlenecks represent obstacles that define the format. I mentioned these briefly a couple weeks back, but I think it bears repeating here. Bottlenecks, both literally and metaphorically, represent elements that restrict the flow and development of the game. The most important of these is the de factoWrath of God effect of the format, which helps regulate the tempo of an environment and dictates the pace with which aggressive strategies must operate. The current best Wrath variant is Languish, which, while conditional, lands fast enough and kills such a significant percentage of the playable creatures in the format, that it gets the nod. It’s worth mentioning that Black is also currently the best removal color (in having access to things like Ultimate Price, Ruinous Path, etc).
Knowing where your bottlenecks are, specifically the bar for Wrath effects, has a lot of secondary effects. Valuing effects like Haste (which, to be fair, is always really good) and Indestructible is colored by the point at which all of your other stuff goes bye-bye, as well as things like toughness relative to things like Languish.
Many of the control strategies from PT:SOI leaned heavily on Languish, meaning that it is overperforming relative to its cousins. Planar Outburst, which was the second-most played such effect, was considered by many to be too difficult to cast reliably, both because it was WW and because it was at five and not four. Given that we have a year with Planar Outburst and only six months with Languish, it’s worth wondering if Planar Outburst will fill a sufficient amount of Languish’s market share come rotation- the need for that effect will always be there, and Planar Outburst is our current second best option. With Languish currently around $9 and Planar Outburst below $1, there is a demonstrable gap in price that is only explained by current viability. If Planar Outburst steps into the role of “best Wrath effect” as Languish rotates (and BFZ stops getting printed!), then it’s not crazy to think that the card could climb to $4-$5 range (conservatively half of Languish’s price since it’s coming from a much larger and more popular set, but still an impressive gain). This is all assuming, of course, that the next Fall set does not have a wrath effect that is strictly better than Planar Outburst.
Can a worse card benefit from a better situation?
Identifying System Players: Remember earlier when I mentioned Thragtusk and Boros Reckoner? Those are cards that I have long referred to as Broodstars, but will now term “system players”. These are cards that only end up excelling in Standard (or even just a particular point in their total Standard lifetime), and don’t end up making the leap to Modern, Legacy, Cube, or Commander. One of the most easily quantifiable indicators of a system player is their mana cost- larger formats exert a higher degree of pressure on converted mana cost because the critical turn decreases as size increases. Standard is more forgiving than Modern, just as Modern is to Legacy, and Legacy to Vintage. While Vintage is not a “Turn 1 Kill” format as people often demonize it to be, you definitely have to have your crap together more quickly than in Standard.
The next characteristic is to pinpoint if a card is the “best available”- which works both positively and negatively. Reaver Drone is currently the best black turn one 2/1 in Standard, by virtue of being the ONLY black turn one 2/1. Once you look to Modern, however, Reaver Drone immediately becomes outclassed by cards like Gravecrawler, which is in (almost) all scenarios the better card. Conversely, if you NEED a B 2/1 for Standard, then Reaver Drone is your guy. This is how Heir of the Wilds ended up getting so much play, for what it’s worth.
Finally, is a card reacting to pressures or synergies unique to the current Standard environment? Thragtusk was very famously concepted as an “answer” to Vapor Snag, which in retrospect seems like bringing a Terminator T-800 to a knife fight.
Always carry two spears.
Broodstar was best in the Affinity decks that existed prior to the printing of Arcbound Ravager, and almost immediately invalidated after the release of Darksteel. Great Sable Stag, probably the best of the misfit toys that we’ve mentioned so far, is in many environments (especially ones with Lightning Bolt) just a Gnarled Mass (which some people will tell you is still a great card).
I mean, he’s not wrong.
These cards are different, however, from narrow role-players. Things like Gideon, Ally of Zendikar and Nissa, Voice of Zendikar are not likely to have wide playability in formats like Modern (meaning that they see some amount in a large amount of decks), but they have a relatively unique ability that make a very specific deck better. An example here is something like Death Cloud or Smallpox– they don’t fit into a very wide spectrum of decks, but there are no other comparable effects (at a viable rate, at least- sorry, Undercity Plague!), so they have a baseline value buoyed by being the best at that very narrow role they serve. It’s the difference, for those who can grok it, between a guy who only excelled in college Spread offenses (TEBOWTEBOWTEBOW) versus a guy who only comes in on third downs to just try and rush the QB. One serves a valuable, but very small and clearly defined, role, the other is on the SEC Network now.
So who are our current Standard system players?
Chandra, Flamecaller: I think this card has some life left in Standard, and I could see her price increasing over the summer, but rotation is going to crater the price. You know how sometimes when you are buying a card that you really need for a deck, but aren’t sure if that twenty bucks or whatever is going to really be worth it in the long run? Yeah, you better win the tournament.
Archangel Avacyn: This card is probably overrated in Standard right now, to say nothing of older formats where 3WW is a VERY big ask. She also benefits from Standard being the format where you can play a bunch of creatures that don’t also backdoor into a combo kill.
Tireless Tracker: This is both a better and more fair Knight of the Reliquary, except that Knight is big on the spot in late games AND can be gotten back by Reveillark (this matters to nobody except a small contingent of crazy people).
Dromoka’s Command: I will never give up on this card, but the rest of you will. For shame.
Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet: Another card that feels built to handle specifically this Standard format, and not the larger and more diverse threats of a wide environment like Modern. Again, that doesn’t mean that this card won’t help define Standard for a while, but be aware that the carriage WILL turn into a pumpkin again. Also, this:
Et tu, FN-2187?
That’s all for this week- Nahiri, the Harbinger is starting to spike as we speak, so hopefully you got into yours already. It’s a card that we’ve been discussing a lot here and on the forums, so make sure that you keep your ears to the ground on what’s coming next. Also, the hype behind Nahiri isn’t JUST coming from Standard- there is word that she may (in concert with Emrakul, the Aeons Torn) be the best thing to be doing in Modern. What cards and colors fit around that combination? Tell me your thoughts, and lets try and piece this beast together. Thanks as always for reading!
Best,
Ross
1In high school, I did a huge math project on Magic, including teaching myself Hypergeometric Distribution in order to evaluate win percentages and keepable opening hand math. Given that I was neither a good student nor a very good Magic player at the time, some of the results may skewed (one of the decks I submitted for testing included the awesome-in-my-mind combo of Natural Affinity + Eradicate, which was a seven mana mostly one-sided Armageddon). I do not have the project saved anywhere to my knowledge, although I do remember that having 8 of a significant effect (Birds of Paradise + Llanowar Elves) equated to a statistically safe amount of opening hands (over 80%).
Hey, happy Pro Tour Weekend! There is a lot to be really excited about going into this event- a new Standard format, a promising draft environment, and, because it’s in Spain, players will get an hour nap break in between formats!
In reality, this weekend is actually a bigger deal than you might even think. This is our first Standard Pro Tour in the new Standard system that touches on 3 separate blocks (although the Fall 2016 set1 will be the first one to cleanly incorporate the new structure, as DTK and Khans will be gone).Even though we have already had two Standard weekends courtesy of SCG, this format feels largely undefined. Standard right now is a lot like the American presidential election- people are over-valuing the recent performance of aggressive white humans.
There is lots of price information to suggest that there are other decks likely to see play at the event, but it’s important to explain WHY white is unlikely to perform as it has in the past. First, the Pro Tour and any Star City event (including the Invitational) have a starkly diverse player base- the range in individual player quality is higher at a Pro Tour, but that’s largely because the Invitational is comprised mostly of players in the middle of the quality spectrum. The Pro Tour attendees, particularly after being weighted by Day Two participation, tend to skew towards much stronger, more experienced players. Strong players, especially ones with long resumes, are often more likely to slot into the control role, because that is the best way to leverage play skill against weaker opponents. At a Pro Tour, you are more likely to see control decks, even if they are a smaller percentage of the format as a whole, because this event is not comprised of Magic players as a wholly random sample.
For this reason, it’s difficult to discern what is actionable information for the future of the standard format, and what is just good for this weekend. On a granular level, some things that don’t really impact Magic finance are likely to fit into this category- I’d be much more comfortable having maindeck Duress at a Pro Tour than at an Open or an FNM, although Duress is unlikely to have a serious price change if it turns out to be a highly played card this weekend.
Let’s talk about some cards that ARE getting hyped going into this weekend:
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