Tag Archives: Standard

Money in the Box?

Well, Shadows over Innistrad is here, and while I have been wrong about a lot of things, I want to look at one of my most cherished ideas and see if that’s even applicable this time around: Not opening packs/boxes.

There’s 59 rares and 18 mythics, and that counts the double-faced cards. There’s not any strong or official information out there regarding the relative rarity of the double-faced mythics as opposed to regular mythics, but since two of the three double-face mythics are two of the three most expensive cards in the set, maybe there’s something to that.

Shadows over Innistrad

It’s time look at some cold numbers.

Here’s all the cards currently that have a Fair Trade Price over $2.50. I’m using that as a general cutoff, that means the box price is $90. I know you can beat that price, but that is a pretty optimistic box price.

Just in case you’re curious, though, I’ll note when we pass the MSRP of $4 and when we get to $3, which puts a box at $108, a better price than stores will give yet slightly higher than TCG.

Card Name and Fair Trade Price

Archangel Avacyn $57.49

Sorin, Grim Nemesis $23.99

Arlinn Kord $23.64

Declaration in Stone $17.99

Jace, Unraveler of Secrets ">Jace, Unraveler of Secrets $13.73

Westvale Abbey $12.73

Thing in the Ice $12.35

Relentless Dead $12.05

Olivia, Mobilized for War $11.85

Nahiri, the Harbinger $11.60

The Gitrog Monster $8.23

Tireless Tracker $7.23

Thalia’s Lieutenant $6.98

Mindwrack Demon $5.64

Ulvenwald Hydra $5.64

Anguished Unmaking $5.58

Startled Awake $5.14

Foreboding Ruins ">Foreboding Ruins $4.53

Sigarda, Heron’s Grace $4.38

Traverse the Ulvenwald $4.19

Port Town $4.17

Under MSRP

Only 21 cards at $4 or more, two weeks into the set. Now let’s see what’s under MSRP in value.

Game Trail ">Game Trail $3.98

Always Watching $3.97

Fortified Village ">Fortified Village $3.97

Goldnight Castigator $3.73

Sin Prodder ">Sin Prodder $3.60

Cryptolith Rite ">Cryptolith Rite $3.59

Choked Estuary $3.51

Descend upon the Sinful $3.04

 

Eight more cards have the average value of a pack. So if you happen to win a cheap eBay auction or something and get your box for $90, there’s an additional pair of cards that are worth the price of a pack:

Drownyard Temple ">Drownyard Temple $2.73

To the Slaughter $2.51

At the most optimistic price, you have a 31/77 chance of making the value of a pack. That’s 40%. Ouch. Not great but not awful? Would you push all-in on a 60/40 hand?

If you get your packs at the TCG price of $108 or so, then you have a 29/77 chance, and that’s a slight decrease to 37%, and at the full MSRP on boosters, it drops further to 27%.

Further Explanation

There’s a couple of flaws with my admittedly basic methodology, and it’s worth addressing them.

First of all, I don’t have any way to account for foils. That’s a random event and a nice bonus, but nothing that can be counted on. For every box with a foil Archangel Avacyn, there’s another box with no foil rare at all. If you get it, great! If you don’t, well, better luck next time.

Avacyn-the-Purifier-MtG-Art

Second, the distribution of double-faced cards is a little wonky, and you can have a double-faced mythic and a double-face uncommon in the same pack. That’s a weird way to go about collating the boosters but hey, that’s not my job. If this is the price we pay to no longer have box mapping be a thing, I’m all in favor of it.

With that said, though, I have to say that the value is just not there for me. Opening a box is a rush, one I know well. Pack after pack of potential, of going slowly to drag out the anticipation or just tearing into it all in a flurry of Mylar. It’s a great feeling…until it’s gone.

I am obligated to point out that not all mythics are equal. Three of them (Seasons Past, Geralf’s Masterpiece, and Wolf of Devil’s Breach) don’t even make this list. That’s not a surprise in the abstract, as we all know mythics can be powerful and yet still inexpensive, but with so little time in retail stores and draft settings…that’s a lot of value gone and fast.

We have a potential spike in front of us, though, with the Pro Tour starting today.This will begin the dance of ‘who will follow through with orders?’ and ‘I can’t sell this fast enough!’ and the popular ‘oh god the card spiked and I had it on my want list…’ and that’s all an extra layer of price complexity. What cards will be popular? Who will run the table with an unforeseen and effective metagame call?
Still, the advice remains solid: Don’t buy packs. Don’t buy boxes. Don’t buy cases. At this point, you’re going to be lucky to open even equivalent value.

PROTRADER: Catching up on a Busy Week of Finance

Things just don’t slow down, do they?

Not only do we have the Pro Tour fast approaching, with (hopefully) less Bant Company making the rounds, but there was also a triple Grand Prix weekend, some big Standard movers and even some rather big Modern news you may have missed.

This is one of the busier times in Magic finance, and the interesting part is that it hasn’t always been this way. In fact, the spring-to-summer part of the year is typically a big lull that I’ve termed in the past the “dead zone” of Magic finance thanks to a Standard format being settled and not much else going on as everyone enjoyed the nice weather rather than slinging magical cards.

It turns out the new block structure may be changing that. There’s been no shortage of interest in Standard since Shadows over Innistrad released, and the Modern unbans have shaken up that format as well.

So on the eve of the Pro Tour, where do things stand?

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Grinder Finance – Best Bulk Practices for a Player

By now if you’ve been playing the game long enough to know what a “bulk rare” is you know the rest of pack is just “bulk.”  The reality of it is if you leave those cards on the table you’re probably incrementally costing yourself a bunch of money.

bulk

There are so many names for the other 14 cards in a booster pack.  Sometimes it’s bulk, sometimes more caustically known as “draft trash,” but most of the time it’s just a bunch of quarters, dimes, and dollars people often leave behind or throw in the garbage.  Picking bulk is a hard thing to do and people pay for bulk because they assume it hasn’t been picked to it’s fullest potential.   I’m not going to teach you how to pick every card out of bulk that can be sold for some amount of money.  What I will suggest is just picking your own bulk for cards you know you will probably need at some point in a set’s lifetime in Standard.
spirit_awakening_riley2

Saving Some Dollars 

So I took a look at the orders from my LGS (I usually buy them online and then pick them up in store) is over the course of the 15ish months that Fate Reforged was in Standard, I spent close to $5 on Arashin Clerics (mostly due to losing them).  It might not sound like a lot when  Standard had $200 mana bases but a few dollars here and there can make a big difference at the end of the year.  If you’re a serious Standard player that doesn’t play the same deck for it’s entire life in Standard sometimes you need a pile of commons and uncommons you weren’t using.  Sometimes those are cards you already owned and forgot where you left them.  Laziness is a real problem and cost me at least $5.  Picking your bulk cards can help ease the problem with finding the right cards to play with while also not costing you a ton of time or money.

Magnifying-Glass-Shadows-over-Innistrad-Art

What To Pick

The biggest question is what do you pick.  If you don’t want to sort literally every card you own there must be a threshold for a card to be worth setting aside.  I have a few rules of thumb that I follow when figuring out what to pick:

  • Is it first pickable in draft?  A lot of very powerful limited cards find there way into Standard.  The poster child for this is rares like Pack Rat and Citadel Siege.  In more recent sets even commons have become constructed all stars.  How many people expected the top 8 of Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch to include Eldrazi Skyspawner in Modern?
  • Does it cost 3 or less?  Cards that cost 3 or less are more likely to be constructed playable.  When they cost a low enough amount of mana, even basically vanilla creatures like Dragon Hunter and Expedition Envoy become constructed playable.
  • Does it do some situationally relevant thing very well?  Commons and uncommons that I’ve found myself unlikely to have are weird niche sideboard cards.  This is the category for cards like Clip Wings, Arashin Cleric, Negate, etc.  When they’re good, they’re very good.  But when they’re bad, they’re almost unplayable.
  • Is it a land?  Lands are always playable in some capacity. Although you may never play most of them, it’s a small price to pay to own a bunch of weird lands just so you don’t have to spend a few bucks to buy them.  This is also especially important when a land is in it’s first print cycle (like the Shadows over Innistrad enemy colored tap lands and Warped Landscape).
  • Is it an uncommon?  I’m much more liberal with pulling uncommons than commons because the more playable uncommons are typically much more expensive.  While most constructed playable commons from recent sets don’t typically get more than $0.50, very good uncommons can be $3 or more (like Monastery Swiftspear).
  • Does it kill things?  Cheap, efficient removal is almost always one of those things that finds a way into constructed formats.
  • Does it do a similar thing to a card you already know is playable?  I know this is a little hard to describe so I will give the best analogy.  Flaying Tendrils is a lot like Drown in Sorrow.  Drown in Sorrow was very playable when it was in Standard so I would assume Flaying Tendrils has a higher than average chance of being played.  Biting Rain would also be picked under the same context.

Ulvenwald-Mysteries-MtG-Art

What does this all look like?

To give you a better idea of how I pick my bulk, I’ll give you the list of cards I took out:

Commons:

  • Catalog
  • Deny Existence
  • Just the Wind
  • Nagging Thoughts
  • Pieces of the Puzzle
  • Alms of the Vein
  • Dead Weight
  • Murderous Compulsion
  • Shamble Back
  • Dual Shot
  • Fiery Temper
  • Insolent Neonate
  • Tormenting Voice
  • Clip Wings
  • Fork in the Road
  • Loam Dryad
  • Root Out
  • Vessel of Nascency
  • Angelic Purge
  • Thraben Inspector
  • Vessel of Ephemera
  • Warped Landscape

Uncommons:

  • Biting Rain
  • Call the Bloodline
  • Indulgent Aristocrat
  • Olivia’s Bloodsworn
  • Pick the Brain
  • Sinister Concoction
  • Compelling Deterrence
  • Essence Flux
  • Invasive Surgery
  • Ongoing Investigation
  • Pore over the Pages
  • Rise from the Tides
  • Topplegeist
  • Groundskeeper
  • Weirding Wood
  • Dance with Devils
  • Geistblast
  • Gibbering Fiend
  • Incorrigible Youths
  • Lightning Axe
  • Ravenous Bloodseeker
  • Forsaken Sanctuary
  • Foul Orchard
  • Highland Lake
  • Stone Quarry
  • Woodland Stream

The last thing I picked was all of the double faced cards.  I’m not sure which ones will be good or bad but there are so few that if I ever need any of them I will likely be short as it is.  As the case was, I didn’t have 4 Duskwatch Recruiters to make the Bant Company deck.  At any rate, I figure I will find myself taking these cards out of the fatpack box they now reside in and thanking my lucky stars I picked them.

Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go through my sorted picks from Magic Origins and get my Bounding Krasi (Krasises? What’s the plural of krasis?) and feel good I won’t pay $1 for them.

What To Pick Up This Weekend

By: Cliff Daigle (@WordofCommander)

I love this time in a set. Prices are wildly changing as preorder hype dies down and new pieces show up in familiar decks. This is the time to maximize both sides of the adage to “buy low, sell high.”

I remain a firm believer that prices in this set have nowhere to go but down. I’m starting to suspect that Archangel Avacyn may be the outlier, since she’s good in any deck that can cast her, control, aggro, anywhere. Plus, there’s a lot of people picking her up for casual decks, and that makes her supply even lower. Might be my biggest mistake in predicting this set, but we will see.

Avacyn-the-Purifier-MtG-Art

This week, I want to share with you some cards that I want to be picking up, either for the short term (unload in a few months) or the long term (sock them away and don’t think about them for at least 18 months) increase in value.

Some of these you’ve heard before, I imagine, but when great minds all think alike…

Blade of Selves ($9) – Now this carries a certain amount of risk. It’s a card that is popular in Commander, but I suspect that a foil version is lurking. Myriad is an ability that could show up in Conspiracy 2, for example, or this could be a judge printing in a year, as did happen with Dualcaster Mage.

Blade of Selves

That said, there’s nowhere for this to go but up. There’s not enough value in the RW deck to make it worth cracking for the singles, and we aren’t far from a new Commander set stealing the show. Picking these up now at $9, and I’m hoping that in about a year they are $15 or more. Remember that these can’t spike due to Legacy play, as Myriad is multiplayer-only.

Foil Alhammarret’s Archive ($9) – This is a card that will cause Commander players to go green with envy and also draw a giant target on someone’s head. You want these cards in long-term storage, because they are going to slowly creep upward in value. The name also makes it difficult to reprint easily.

Foil Dark Petition ($7) – This is a hunch of a card, but hear me out. This is a card that only can get better, as the cards around it improve. It’s much like how Birthing Pod got better with each set, as new and improved creatures were around. Dark Petition has potential, and if it spikes in Modern or Legacy, the foils will hit a higher value. If you’re into percentages, the nonfoil is just over a dollar and all you’ll need is one on-camera deck to spike it to $5, if not higher.

Dark Petition

Wasteland Strangler ($1.30) – Nice Ancestral Visions, bro! At that point, if you’re killing a creature and binning the Visions, that’s about a virtual 4-for-1. The nonfoil is not going to be as pricey, since it was a rare in Battle for Zendikar and not Oath of the Gatewatch, but this is a very good card in the right setting, and it’s cheap to pick up.

Kiora, Master of the Depths ($3) – A general rule of thumb is to pick up some planeswalkers when they drop below $5. This is Kiora’s second card and she’s still doing some very Simic things. I don’t see her spiking in Standard but I do see her growing over time. She’s terrible at protecting herself but awesome at gaining you value.

Foil Bring to Light ($7) – I don’t like the nonfoil as much, since it lacks appeal to non-magpie-type Commander players. It looks far sweeter in foil, too. This is a card that can find so many amazing plays, so many needed plays. Everything from that Hallowed Burial to wipe the board or to find Tajuru Warcaller in the five-color Allies deck.

It’s also worth mentioning that this card has gotten to this foil price just off of casual appeal so far. If it gets used in Modern (or heaven help us, Legacy) then the sky is the limit.

Foil and nonfoil Eldrazi Displacer ($3/$11) – I have to admit, I think this card is amazing in any format where creatures are good. It’s a small-set rare, so it’s got potential, and the possibilities with this card are fantastic. For one, it’s better than the Commander in a Roon of the Hidden Realm deck, and watch out if Training Grounds lands. At that point, it’s better than Deadeye Navigator!

We love our blinkers. I’m a little surprised no one tried to break this with Siege Rhino when they were legal together.

Eldrazi Displacer

Foil Zendikar Resurgent ($3.50) – I love this card so very much. I’ve expounded before on my love for decks that are heavy on creatures, and this solves one of the biggest problems with Soul of the Harvest: You run out of mana before you run out of creatures. I can only imagine the hijinks that are going to ensue with this in an Animar, Soul of Elements deck.

Foil Jori En, Ruin Diver ($3.50/$9) – This was in Todd Anderson’s U/R deck that also caused a spike in Pyromancer’s Goggles, and there’s a lot of potential here. The ability to tack ‘draw a card’ onto the second cheap spell each turn, particularly removal spells, is really good in Constructed formats.

Unsurprisingly, it’s also really good in Commander and Cube, which is why the full-art version is rather high as those promos go. It’s a color combination that can be played a lot of ways, and it doesn’t take much to be pure profit.

 

That’s all for this week, see you next Friday!