Monthly Archives: November 2014

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Hunting for Commander Foils: Artifact Part II

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By: Guo Heng Chin

Welcome back readers! This is the second part of the Hunting for Commander Foils series where we evaluate foil Commander staples to see if they hold any financial potential. You can find the first part here. Today we shall continue where last week’s article left off, shiny artifacts.

Taking into account the comments I have received for the first article in the series, I am going to slightly alter the format of the discussion. The first article was written in a pseudo-set review style in an attempt to cover as many cards as possible by working down the list used to rank the popularity of the cards. While I eschewed foils that are too expensive (no point harping about a $118 foil Sensei’s Divining Top if the majority of readers would not be willing to spend that much for it) or are stagnant price-wise, I covered foil staples that are already relatively expensive like Solemn Simulacrum.

My intention were to evaluate if it is worth acquiring your personal copy of those cards even though they may not be good spec targets anymore. However, it gave the impression that the article was discussing ships that have already sailed. Plus it seemed that a set review style would be too long-winded; last week’s article barely made its way down the top ten cards.

So I am opting for a more succinct approach this week: I shall focus only on the foil Commander staples on the list that are undervalued, a topic I think readers of this column prefer.

Before we get to the cards for this week, an obligatory shout-out to the super useful database in which we will be extracting our cards from:

50 shades of colorless.
50 shades of colorless by scoeri. This joke never gets old.

The list comes from an extensive Commander statistics database created and maintained by MTGSalvation.com EDH Primer Committee member scoeri. Every month, scoeri runs a script which trawls mtgsalvation.com for user-posted Commander decklists and breaks them down into various categories, giving an invaluable snapshot of the Commander metagame. You can find the lists here under the forum post Statistical Breakdown of the Commander Metagame. The database was last updated on 31 October 2014 with 3023 decks from 1473 users (decks posted or updated from 31 October 2013 – 31 October 2014). I am indebted to scoeri for the awesome database.

As with last week, we will be using the colorless list for the purpose of this article as the list includes artifact creatures while the artifact list only contains noncreature artifacts. Last week, we made our way down the list to Expedition Map. This week, the criteria will be stricter and we shall only discuss artifacts that possess financial potential. We will be skipping over popular, obvious and already sailed artifacts like Chromatic Lantern and focus on foil staples that are still cheap like this sacrificial deer:

Hart of Gold

Hart of gold.
Any more burnishing and you’ll scrape off  the foiling.

Foil Theros: $1.12

Number of Foil Printings: 1

The humble draft mana fixer, Burnished Hart has been getting a lot of love on the EDH subreddit and it is easy to see why: most Commander decks would like to have access to mana-fixing, and a double Rampant Growth on a bear (bear-hart) that fits into decks of any color has the making of a Commander staple, if it is not already one. Though more expensive than Armillary Sphere in casting and activation cost, the fact that Burnished Hart is a creature gives it synergy with a wider range of strategies: besides the usual artifact recurrence with Academy Ruins, it can be reanimated,  pulled out from your bottom (of your deck, hopefully most of the time) with Grenzo, Dungeon Warden, it triggers Sidisi, Brood Tyrant (which by the way has been growing in popularity as a Commander) and many more interactions a humble Armillary Sphere is not capable of.

Theros is still a Standard-legal set, but going for slightly more than $1, I see only upside for foil Burnished Hart. While I do not think foil Burnished Hart will grow to the double digit price of other common artifact mana-fixers like Dimir Signet and Azorius Signet due to the significantly larger print run of modern day sets like Theros, I am confident that foil Burnished Hart will exceed the price of other common rarity foil artifact mana-fixers on the top fifty list like Wayfarer’s Bauble, which is already less popular than Burnished Hart as of writing and is going for $3.81. The shiny fawn will take a while to become a full-fledged hart, get it now when Theros is abundant in supply and foil Burnished Harts are aplenty in bulk foil boxes before it becomes a $4 – $5 card. I know I am getting some myself.

Trading Cards in a Game of Trading Cards

Trading cards in a game of trading cards.
Where do you play a trading card game? Why, at the trading post of course!

M13 Foil: $2.79

M14 Foil: $1.98

Number of Foil Printings: 2

Trading Post is the Batman’s utility belt in Commander. Need to block a rampaging 12/12 Hydra Broodmaster? Here’s a goat. Need more lands? Sacrifice that goat of yours who is going to die anyway to get back your Wayfarer’s Bauble. Need more gas? Sac that worn out Worn Powerstone to further fuel your conquest. Life’s got you down? Toss away that 10th land you drew for 4 life.

Trading Post feels a bit like a Planeswalker in the sense that it generates incremental card advantage once per turn when it hits the board. Of course, I’m not claiming that Trading Post is anywhere near the power level of a Planeswalker (maybe except Tibalt) but it ekes you advantage over a prolonged game, and most Commander games tend to go long.

Trading Post is a Swiss Army knife that most Commander decks could find use for and yet foils of it could be acquired for less than $2. Granted M14 has just rotated out and being printed in both M13 and M14 created a huge supply. Nevertheless $2 is pretty close to bulk for foil rares, what more for a popular Commander rare. I suspect foil Trading Post will become one of those foil rares that surprises people when they look up its price a few years down the road. There’s always a risk of reprint, but at $2, how much can you lose? Plus foils do retain their value better than normal copies.

Foil Trading Post have a lot of room to grow, though I doubt it will be able to hit foil Staff of Domination prices due to Trading Post’s higher supply and the fact that Staff is ran as a one-of in Legacy and Vintage MUD decks (not that Vintage counts for much). However I do think that foil Trading Posts could hit $8 – $10 in the coming years.

Trading Post is also a pretty fun card to play, and its appeal as a ‘one-stop shop’ probably contributes to its popularity among the casual crowd. Did I mentioned, Trading Post has synergy with the artifact creature Burnished Hart too?

Signets That Shine

The most expensive foil signet of them all.
The most expensive foil signet of them all.
The cheapest foil signet of the lot.
The cheapest foil signet of the lot.

Ravnica Block Foils: $2.51  – $14.58

The cycle of signets from the original Ravnica block are some of the most popular artifact mana fixers in Commander, with four of them in the top fifty most played colorless cards list (five if you refer to the artifacts list).

But their prices are starkly different. You have foil Dimir Signet at $14 and foil Azorius Signet at $10. Foil Izzet Signet is around $7 and the rest are under $5. A foil Gruul Signet is a measly $2.51 and foil Selesnya Signet is no better at $3.16. They all have seen the same number of foil printings. So why the huge price gap between the most and least expensive signet?

The price pattern shows that the signets with green in them are the cheapest of the lot. Perhaps already having access to plenty of mana fixing, green-based decks do not run signets as much as the non-green decks do.

A quick glance through another database by scoeri breaking down the statistically average composition of the decks of the top fifty commanders validated the hypothesis. The green-based decks rarely included signets in their list, while the non-green decks often ran all the signets their color identity allows. Furthermore, the four signets in the top fifty most played colorless cards list (and the fifth signet if you count the artifacts list) are all non-green.

That makes the green-based foil signets a bad investment, regardless of how cheap they currently are. However foil Rakdos Signet and foil Orzhov Signet seem to be significantly lower than the other four non-green signets; they the only non-green foil signets available for under $5 but they see similar amount of play with the two most expensive signets, Dimir Signet and Azorius Signet. Boros Signet sees less play than both Rakdos Signet and Orzhov Signet and is $6.

Check out the top fifty most popular commanders over the past year, from the same database referred to by this article:

The real Hall of Triumph. The Journey into Nyx one was a knock-off.
The real Hall of Triumph. The Journey into Nyx one was a knock-off.

As mentioned above, most of the non-green decks run all the signets their color identity allows.  From the list we can see that popular non-green decks running Dimir Signet and/or Azorius Signet tend to also run Rakdos Signet (Nekusar, the Mindrazer, Jeleva, Nephalia’s Scourge, Marchesa, the Black Rose) and Orzhov Signet (Oloro, Ageless Ascetic, Sydri, Galvanic Genius, Kaalia of the Vast, Sharuum the Hegemon).

These Ravnican guild signets did not appear in Return to Ravnica and each signet bears the name of their respective guilds, so it is highly unlikely for the signets cycle to see a foil printing outside another visit to Ravnica, which probably would not happen within the next five years or so, a.k.a. a long, long time. So far they have been reprinted in Commander and Archenemy, both non-foil supplementary products.

I am of opinion that Rakdos Signet and Orzhov Signet are mispriced and are due for a market correction.

Closing

With the signets, we conclude the artifact segment of Hunting for Commander Foils series. Do comment on if you’ve enjoyed the approach I took for this article, and any suggestions for future articles are more than welcomed. You can find me @theguoheng or just drop a comment here.

Join me next week as I discuss the epic fails (and whatever little wins) I have experienced throughout my time in Magic finance and the lessons I have learnt from them. In the mean time, I can’t wait to finally unpack that Built from Scratch deck I have purchased over the weekend but have yet to find time to bring it out for a test run. Artifacts for the win!

 

The Gilded Goblin

Preparing for Grand Prix New Jersey

By: Jared Yost

EDITOR’S NOTE: MTGPrice.com will have extensive live coverage of the #mtgfinance side of GP:NJ Friday through Sunday. This includes dealer interviews and live blogging from the floor. Be sure to check blog.mtgprice.com all weekend long!

In preparation for Grand Prix New Jersey coming up later this week I thought I might share with you some of my ideas for what to expect at the tournament.

Vendor Paradise

There are going to be twenty vendors at the event – twenty vendors! – which means there are going to be many different opportunities for buylisting and arbitrage during the weekend. Buylisting almost becomes an art rather than a science during a GP.

Of course, the best time to visit the vendors is early Friday morning if you want the best deals and most opportunities to sell to them. At the beginning of the event the vendors will be looking to stock up not only for the weekend but to increase their general inventory. However, as the weekend goes on, fewer and fewer vendors are prone to offer high buylist prices on staples.

Besides buylisting cards, GP’s are a great opportunity to pick up swag. What I mean by swag are sleeves, dice, bags, binders, and other Magic related items that aren’t the cards themselves. Lots of vendors will be looking to undercut the others for items like Dragon Shield sleeves, Ultra Pro binders, and more.

Binder Preparation

You will want to give yourself plenty of time to gather all of the Legacy staples you want to trade at the event. Prices are going to be spiking the weekend of the tournament, for at least a select few cards. If you are keeping an eye on the price changes you will be able to capitalize on cards that experience short term spikes by trading them or buylisting them to the vendors.

Beyond Legacy, you should also prepare another binder for Modern and Standard trades. There will be plenty of opportunity to trade higher valued Theros block cards during the weekend like Elspeth, Sun’s Champion, Hero’s Downfall, Kiora, the Crashing Wave, and Ajani, Mentor of Heroes. There are going to be side events for Modern and Standard plus vendors will be picking up many of the Standard staples, in addition to Legacy and Modern, to increase their inventory.

Here are some cards that will be good to have for the event. I marked the format(s) the card will be desirable in. The more formats a card is desirable in the higher the chance you will have of being able to trade it. You should be able to trade or buylist all of the Legacy cards at some point during the weekend.

CardFormat
Force of WillLegacy
Volcanic IslandLegacy
Misty RainforestLegacy / Modern
Scalding TarnLegacy / Modern
WastelandLegacy
Tropical IslandLegacy
Deathrite ShamanLegacy
KarakasLegacy
Jace, the Mind SculptorLegacy
TundraLegacy
BayouLegacy
Sensei's Divining TopLegacy
Snapcaster MageLegacy / Modern
TarmogoyfLegacy / Modern
Umezawa's JitteLegacy
Stoneforge MysticLegacy
BatterskullLegacy / Modern
True-Name NemesisLegacy
Liliana of the VeilLegacy / Modern
Council’s JudgmentLegacy
Steam VentsModern
RemandModern
Stomping GroundModern
Temple GardenModern
Cryptic CommandModern
Sacred FoundryModern
Breeding PoolModern
Noble HierarchLegacy / Modern
Restoration AngelModern
Abrupt DecayLegacy / Modern
SpellskiteModern
Marsh FlatsLegacy / Modern
ThoughtseizeLegacy / Modern
Goblin GuideLegacy / Modern
Elspeth, Sun's ChampionStandard
Kiora, the Crashing WaveStandard
Ajani, Mentor of HeroesStandard
Keranos, God of StormsLegacy / Modern / Standard
Mana ConfluenceLegacy / Modern / Standard
Courser of KruphixModern / Standard
Stormbreath DragonStandard
Sylvan CaryatidStandard

I would also like to mention some decks that I think many different players will adopt for the Legacy main event. The decks are on the cheaper side to build and players could be looking for copies of random cards that appear in the decks. If you prepare well, you will be able to trade some of the more obscure pieces to someone looking to play the deck.

  • U/R Delver
  • Dredge
  • Belcher
  • Elves
  • Death & Taxes
  • Merfolk
  • Affinity

I think many players will want to use these decks because they are fairly straightforward to pilot and offer a pretty simplistic game plan in order to win. Check out a few lists online and see if you have any of the pieces of the decks. If you do you can probably trade them away during the weekend if you currently aren’t using them.

Besides decks, cards that show up in sideboards will also be nice to have for trades. Some cards in this list include:

By no means is this an extensive list but it does reflect many of the popular choices for sideboards.

Bulk Drop Off

Vendors are pretty happy to buy bulk at these types of events, especially bulk rares. If you have a stack of them lying around that you’ve been looking to get rid of a GP is a great place to do it. Similar to buylisting, different vendors have different goals about how they want to buy bulk. There will be plenty of pricing options available for getting rid of it. Bulk foils are also pretty desirable and you should be able to get a decent quote if you shop around.
Don’t be afraid to barter. There are plenty of other vendors at the event and most vendors will be open to reasonable offers. The place will be crowded and  the vendors are going to want to get things over as fast as possible but it doesn’t mean that you have to feel pushed into making a deal you don’t want. Feel free to walk away if you’re not comfortable. There will be plenty of opportunities throughout the weekend.

Similar to buylisting, getting rid of bulk will be much easier Friday morning compared to Saturday or Sunday. By Saturday and Sunday vendors will already be dealing with piles of cards so the chances of getting a deal will be harder and harder the further you try from Friday.

Discount Binders from Vendors

Grand Prix’s are great places for vendors to get rid of cards that they have a hard time moving locally if they don’t have a big online presence. Several vendors will have $1 Binders, $2 Binders, $5 Binders, etc. where they will put a ton of random cards into and hope to sell them during the event. Many times, staples of formats will be in these binders and you should be able to get good deals on otherwise higher prices at other stores. For example, at Grand Prix Richmond I saw cards like Scapeshift and Hero of Bladehold in these type of binders. It’s a pretty sweet deal if you take a few minutes out of your time to browse the binders.

One caveat with this plan is that if you are looking for NM condition than the discount binders may not be for you. There is usually a reason that these cards are in the binders in the first place. Foils with some scuffing, cards that are SP or even MP, and tons of cards that you probably aren’t interested in that you still have to look through will usually be prevalent. Don’t be discouraged though, if you are one to pick through bulk to find gems then browsing these binders should be a walk in the park in comparison.

Final Thoughts

Most of all, have fun at the event. Since there are tons of people be aware of your surroundings and keep a close watch on anything you bring to the event. I’ll be thinking carefully about what exactly I want to bring to an event of this size and so should you. I find that bringing less is much less stressful (barring bulk, of course) and helps me focus on other activities like playing, participating in events, and bargain hunting through the various vendors.

GP’s are pretty much the best place to find deals at and unfortunately there are hardly any Legacy GP’s anymore. This is going to be the best opportunity for many of us in some time to sell off any unused Legacy staples, or pick up those remaining staples we’ve been looking for to complete a deck or add to our collection.

Good luck to any playing in the main event, and safe travels to those flying in and driving four or more hours. Your dedication is what makes Magic great!

 

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WEEKEND PRICE UPDATE: NOV 8TH/14

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Here’s your weekly update on what’s been shifting around in price in the world of paper Magic: The Gathering this week. This week, the story continues to be about the deflation of Khans of Tarkir prices.

5 Winners of the Week

1.  Forked Bolt (Rise of the Eldrazi, Uncommon): $0.36 to $1.26 (+40%)

Format(s): Modern/Legacy

Heading into GP New Jersey next weekend, a tournament that is likely to be the largest Legacy Magic event of all time, we have a metagame before us that pivots on the fulcrum point that is U/R Delver decks. Suddenly most of the creatures you need to kill (Delver of Secrets, Young Pyromancer, Swiftspear, Tokens) are begging for the cheapest possible solution that can do 1-2 damage. That card is Forked Bolt. Low inventory relative to immediate demand is spiking the card, and foils have done even better. I was happy to mop up a handful of foils a couple of weeks at market rates based on my early Legacy testing and tourney results, but the paper version could easily hit $3-4 on the floor of GPNJ in a world where Stoke the Flames exceeds that price. The long term prognosis largely depends on whether Treasure Cruise gets banned in Modern, which could signal a shift back towards other decks, but there is profit to be found here in trades at Legacy events in the interim.

Verdict: Buy/Hold

2.  Firedrinker Satyr (Theros, Rare): $1.05 to $1.20 (+14%)

Format(s): Standard

The red aggro deck continues to be a popular and viable strategy in local standard metagames despite not taking down any top tables at major tourneys upstream. Depending on how many Coursers and Caryatids you need to punch through this guy can be a very helpful little bastard. I was targeting these at .35 cents and as throw-ins for trades last summer, so trading out now is a good move if you aren’t playing your copies.

Verdict: Trade

3.  Whip of Erebos (Theros, Rare): $1.87 to $2.23 (+19%)

Format(s): Standard/EDH

With a few strong Top 8 finishes lately, the various Whip decks have staked a claim to Tier 1 deck status in Standard for the season. Some decks go so far as to play 4 copies of this legendary enchantment, which is helping to boost the price. These will drop near rotation for sure, due to a complete lack of legacy play, so if you can trade out extras in the $2-3 range that’s a solid move, looking to pick some back up for long term holds next spring/summer.

Verdict: Trade

4.  Jeskai Ascendancy (KTK, Rare): $2.18 to $1.95 (+12%)

Format(s): Standard/Modern/Legacy

First it was jank. Then it was the hidden king of combo. Then it was too fragile for Standard, but ban-able in Modern. Then Ivan Jen took down SCG Open Oakland last weekend with his Heroic/Ascendancy hybrid deck and demonstrated yet again the versatility and power of this multi-facted combo piece. They key here is whether it’s getting banned in Modern this winter, and so far, the lack of results there makes me say no. Assuming it survives the first swing of the axe (which will almost certainly hit Treasure Cruise regardless), this could be a serious gainer heading into next fall as more cards become available to expand the combo options in Standard. I’m quite happy to these up at $2-3 and roll the dice for a role in multiple formats. I’m also holding a plethora of Japanese foils of this card, but it’s a risky move.

Verdict: Buy/Hold below $3

5. Thoughtseize (Lorwyn, Rare): $34.49 to $36.78 (+7%)

Format(s): All

What Snapcaster Mage was to Innistrad and Abrupt Decay was to RTR block, Thoughtseize is to Theros. All are eternal playable power cards that the MTGFinance community told everyone repeatedly to buy at their lows. Thoughtseize never got much below $15, but I managed to snag several sets in the $12-13 range.  Now it’s in the low 20’s and likely to regain 30 within 18 months with ease. My records tell me that I was selling Lorwyn versions at $55USD summer of 2013, so getting back in this year around $30 on those was also solid. With both versions climbing far in advance of rotation I’d grab any sets you want for play or speculation sooner rather than later. You may get a chance to snag copies at a good price from standard players trading out next fall, but then again, you may not.

Verdict: Buy

5 Top Losers of the Week

1. Heliod, God of the Sun (Theros, Mythic): $3.42 to $2.67 (-22%)

Format(s): Casual/EDH

We are now at the point where virtually all of the gods are excellent pickups for long term holds. These are iconic and unique mythics that are unlikely to see reprints in any specialty products anytime soon due to thematic issues and the need to be surrounded by devotion strategies. Commander 2015 would have been a fine vehicle and WOTC passed on that opportunity due to proximity to release, so they should be safe for a few years at least. I’m happy to snag a ton of Heliod around $2-$2.50, as he can easily be expected to settle in around $6-8 down the road. Keranos is the only god I’d wait to target at rotation. The others I’ll be buying in piles heading toward summer lows, happy to dollar cost average.

Verdict: Buy

2. Kiora, the Crashing Wave (Born of the Gods, Mythic): $20.37 to $16.07 (-21%)

Format(s): Standard + Modern

Kiora is a great Planeswalker, but she’s too fragile in the current burn heavy standard meta and she’s just been announced as one half of the spring Duel Decks release alongside Elspeth, Sun’s Champion. In my mind, both cards are worth dumping sooner rather than later, as they will surely crash heading into summer and will then by buys at half the price or less. For what it’s worth I prefer the original art on both cards, so it’s worth watching to see if the bottom will drop out on foils at some point, opening an EDH spec.

Verdict: Sell/Trade

3.  Wurmcoil Engine (Scars of Mirrodin, Mythic): $20.03 to $17.07 (-15%)

Format(s): Modern/Legacy/EDH

As covered earlier, there is far too much value in the new Commander 2014 red deck to allow this freshly reprinted mythic to stay up. I think the floor on this is somewhere in the $8-12 range, and at the lower end of that I’m in for a few sets as longer term holds and to play with, since I only had a few in the collection until now. If you can manage to trade them away above market averages, that’s a slam dunk right now.

Verdict: Sell/Trade

4.  Xenagos, The Reveler (Theros, Mythic) 14.26 to 12.20 (-14%)

This guy has put in plenty of work in the last year and has nothing to be ashamed of. First commanding around $30 at his release, he later dipped to under $10 this summer, when I was snagging him for $8. He spiked in the fall on middling standard results and lessened availability to around $18, but is now falling again on lack of play. You should have got out a few weeks back, but it’s possible he sees a resurgence based on new cards in the next two sets this winter/spring so holding your playset isn’t crazy.

Verdict: Hold/Trade

5.  Stormbreath Dragon (Theros, Mythic) $20.01 to $18.11 (-9%)

Big red threats aren’t winning enough top tables, and when they are, they’re generally named Sarkhan. I’ve been dumping extra copies for a while, and we’d need to be facing down a significant metagame shift before I’d change my mind.

Verdict: Sell/Trade

Quick Hits:

  • Commander 2014 sets of 5 decks can easily be found for about $125, saving you some cash below MSRP. At an MTGFinance play however, these decks are weak. I’m still holding a ton of Commander 2013 product that isn’t likely to produce for another 1-2 years and that’s not where you want to be at this time next year. Cracking them for decks at lowered cost by ditching the banner cards is a fine collector value play, but it’s not a money maker when you consider your time spent. Steer clear.
  • I’m trading foil Treasure Cruise into foil Dig Through Time all day long. Cruise is too good, everyone knows it, and it will be banned in modern this winter without question. It will still see play in Legacy, but DTT has a brighter and broader future. Even better, trade either into foil Delver of Secrets. Those can still be had under $15, and that’s just not right given the current level of play and the fact that Innistrad is almost 3 years older than KTK.
  • If you’re looking for specs for next weekend, you should be figuring out what metagame calls will be made against UR Delver at GP New Jersey and buying accordingly. Folks will be finishing up decks this weekend and copies of key cards should result in some spikes shortly. We’re already seeing it with Forked Bolt, but that won’t be the last card.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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Casual Fridays

Overcoming Disappointment

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By: Cliff Daigle

Really, I should have known.

Oh, Wizards teased us and they did it well. A glimpse here, a tantalizing hint there, and then they let our imaginations do the work.

So the full Commander 2014 decks are now on sale, with the contents known to us all. I’m very sad that we didn’t get Iona or Avacyn or even Radiant, Archangel! We got a deck that is half casual Angels and half Equipment theme. I feel like this is a big miss.

Teferi made me think that we would be getting all colors of iconic characters from the past, but instead, we only got him and Freyalise. Perhaps there will be another chance in the future, but this is a missed opportunity.

I’m not saying that Avacyn, Angel of Hope and Iona, Shield of Emeria are safe long-term investments (foils are more likely to retain their value, but at this point, nothing is reprint-proof besides the Reserved List) but those will be harder to print going forward. Perhaps in Modern Masters 2? Conspiracy 2? A Duel Deck?

I want to look at a few more cards this week, but I’m not expecting anything major out of most of this release. Look at the prices for Commander 2011 and Commander 2013 to see how in the long-term, these prices are mostly going to stay low.

Looking at the C13 prices again, maybe Wizards didn’t want to tank the prices of these amazing Angels. I expect that C14 will be printed about as much as C13 was, perhaps a little less, depending on which cards are the high-demand Legacy cards.

Speaking of which…

Containment Priest – This is a remarkably effective card against Dredge strategies, Reanimation strategies, and especially Sneak and Show decks. It doesn’t work if they Show and Tell Omniscience into play, but the presence of this card might be very warping to the Legacy metagame. I expect this to increase in the near term (say $25, especially with the Legacy GP being so near) but settle quickly into the $10-$15 range.

My inclination is to say that this and Dualcaster are going to be the major Legacy players.

 

Malicious Affliction – It’s true that this is a bit difficult to cast at BB. However, it’s also the casting cost of Hymn to Tourach and that’s a card that sees some play. It won’t kill a Deathrite Shaman or a Tombstalker, but there’s tremendous upside against decks that are heavy on counterspells. You get the copy when you cast this spell, so they have to be able to counter both. On the downside, you’ll have to target both copies at the same creature if you’re concerned about counterspells. An interesting card that I think will end up around $3.

 

Song of the Dryads – I don’t see this getting much Legacy play. There’s cheaper ways to deal with creatures (Lignify, Swords to Plowshares) or lands (Phantasmal Terrain, Spreading Seas). It’s unlikely that this keeps much of a price.

 

Titania, Protector of Argoth – This has Legacy potential. I like the thought of playing her, getting a fetchland back, and cracking that land to gain a 5/3 creature for free. It’s for certain that she would be more feared in Modern, but costing five may price her out of Legacy.

I want to reiterate that this set is going to see some widespread printing. Wurmcoil Engine is down $5 since it was spoiled and it’s not done dropping. Goblin Welder has lost about 25% of its value. Thran Dynamo is down $3. There are going to be a lot of cards that take a hit and never get up again.

If you can get a deck or two today, and trade its components immediately, there is value to be had. There will not be value for long. Wizards is using this set, and others like it, to take cards that are fun from being rare (due to printing/age) to being common enough that anyone can get one with minimal expense.

Here’s an example: Adarkar Valkryie

Capture

Look at the drop last summer when it was in Modern Masters.

Have another one: Avenger of Zendikar

Capture

Commander 2013 was spoiled in mid-October, and the price was high for a couple of weeks, then began to fall. That’s the pattern I expect, and that’s the pattern you should be working from if you’re trying to extract value. Go ahead and try, but don’t build up a big inventory. Speed is going to be everything.

If you’re dying to grab a deck and try to trade/sell for the value, I don’t think that’s a winning play but the red deck has three big cards in it: Wurmcoil, Dualcaster, and Daretti. This does not bode well for the prices of the other cards in the red deck.

Personally, I’m going to sort through the new cards and slowly trade for what I want. I’m going to figure out what I would take out of decks first, because if I can’t decide what to cut, I’m not going to waste time and value trading for a card I won’t use.

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