Monthly Archives: September 2017

Watchtower

PROTRADER: The Watchtower 9/4/17

By: Travis Allen
@wizardbumpin

Don’t miss this week’s installment of the MTG Fast Finance podcast, an on-topic, no-nonsense tour through the week’s most important changes in the Magic economy. And if you enjoy playing Magic, make sure to visit https://scry.land to find PPTQs, SCG Opens, and more events on an interactive map with worldwide coverage. Find Magic near you today.

Ixalan spoilers have been trickling in at a fair clip so far, and we’ll be getting far more in the very new future. Most recently we saw Huatli, Warrior Poet, joining Jace, Cunning Castaway as two of the three planeswalkers of the set. Huatli strikes me as sub-par, with a rough pairing of a five mana converted mana cost and three starting loyalty, and a poor plus ability next to a reasonable zero activation. Her “ultimate” isn’t bad though, as it lets you either clear up problem creatures, or alpha strike unblocked. Maybe there’s a dino deck that can leverage her well, but excepting that, she’s not doing much for me.

Over on the EDH side of things Wizards keep trickling in. Supreme Inquisitor is showing up on spike lists today, although that’s most certainly people reaching. Other wizard cards, such as Sigil Tracer continue to sell through at a strong clip, and they’re not the only tribe to see a bump, with Scourge of the Thrones another popular seller this week.

The bulk of “easy money” from Commander 2017 has been made, but there will certainly be sustained demand over the coming months. Remember that these decks only just hit shelves, and for many players, it isn’t until they get them in their hands, play a game or two, and then start to evaluate what to do differently that they start making their purchases.

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Bristling Hydra (Foil)

Price Today: $1.50
Possible Price: $8

Two more Standard GPs, and two more strong results for Temur Energy. I spoke about this deck a few weeks ago through the lens of Glorybringer, and now I’m returning to it because I think Bristling Hydra is worth keeping tabs on at this point as well.

Over in Turin two lists made top eight, and DC saw one as well. One thing has been consistent in every single Temur Energy list I think I’ve looked at in the last three months, and that’s the full four-of Bristling Hydra. It’s the lynchpin of the deck, and showing up with less than four at this point is looking like a fool’s errand.

What makes this really worth watching is that nothing rotates in October. Like, nothing. The main deck loses a whopping two lands. Other than that, it’s Kaladesh and Amonkhet all the way down. Compare this to any other tier deck out there and you’ll see they don’t have the same luxury. With Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, all the Eldrazi, and most of the zombies hailing from Battle for Zendikar and Shadows Over Innistrad, every other list is leaving a lot of meat behind this fall.

Plenty of copies exist out there, of course, but with such impressive results week after week and the fact that it’s going to be the unquestionable best deck on day zero, we could see a great deal of that supply dry up fast. If Temur Energy becomes the deck to beat, it’s not hard to imagine Hydra at over $5 a copy.

Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle (Release Promo)

Price Today: $11
Possible Price: $30

If you’ve been watching MTGO results for the past few months, you’d notice the amusing and tenacious presence of Valakut combo. So much so, in fact, that mtgtop8 is now showing Valakut Combo as the most represented combo deck in the format. That happened quietly, right? Did you realize that? I certainly didn’t. I knew it was being played, but the most popular combo deck in Modern? Huh.

Players seem to have settled squarely on a RG build, using full playsets of Primeval Titan and Scapeshift to deliver the dirt. A couple of Summoner’s Pacts act as Titans five and six, making sure this deck is always ready to deliver the damage on turn four. One or two Chandra, Torch of Defiances round out the heavy hitters in main, and other than that, there’s a familiar mixture of Sakura-Tribe Elders, Farseeks, Lightning Bolts, and Search for Tomorrows. All in all, not an especially clever build, but clearly an effective one.

The core of the deck, the card from which the deck derives its name, is of course Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle. There’s still been only one printing so far, which has pushed non-foils into the $10 range. Pack foils hang out around $15 at the moment, and release promos are available at $11 to $12.

Those release promos are the ones I’m interested in. With Masters 25 next spring apparently focusing on Pro Tour-winning cards from the last 25 years, there’s a reasonable chance we’d see Valakut make an appearance. It was the only deck that could realistically hang with Caw Blade back in the day, which is quite an honorific to wear. A reprint in a masters set is likely to come with the pack art, which isn’t particularly impressive or interesting. Meanwhile the release promo art is darker, foreboding, and dangerous. It’s got a real Mordor thing going on. It’s the preferred art for sure, and it’s likely that the only place you’re ever going to get it is on these promos.

Working under that expectation, promos at $11 are appealing. There aren’t many left out there, and with Valakut’s growing strength and popularity online, it won’t be long before it begins to transition in earnest to paper. Once that happens, these promos will be well positioned.

Aura Shards

Price Today: $9
Possible Price: $25

Everyone that pays any attention to EDH whatsoever knows this is a majorly important card in the format. If your deck produces both green and white mana, there’s a very good chance you’re in for aura shards. It allows you to basically cast a merged Purify/In Garruk’s Wake in a single turn if you’ve got the ability to generate tokens. Persistent enchantment and artifact removal is excellent, and the fact that it’s one-sided is icing on the cake.

Somehow there are still only two printings of this; Invasion and the original Commander. As such, there is not exactly a bountiful supply. Over on TCGPlayer right now there are 38 total sellers across both copies, and that includes every condition and language. Filtering down to NM English, there’s far fewer. The story is similar on most major vendors.

As alluded to, this card is popular. How popular? According to EDHREC, it’s in 23% of 45,084 decks. That’s a lot of Aura Shards. With supply as low as it is and the card as popular as it is, I wouldn’t be surprised to see inventories dry up any day now. Once that happens, it will be a $20+ card until Wizards deigns to pop out some more.

Travis Allen has  been playing Magic: The Gathering since 1994, mostly in upstate New York. Ever since his first FNM he’s been trying to make playing Magic cheaper, and he first brought his perspective to MTGPrice in 2012. You can find his articles there weekly, as well as on the podcast MTG Fast Finance.

 

Casual Fridays

UNLOCKED PROTRADER: First Look at Ixalan

I love nothing more than preview season, though I really don’t like the giant dump of cards we got at the beginning of the week. That’s too much all at once for me to process and I suppose that means I’ve completely come around to like Wizards’ method of revealing the new set.

At the same time, thought, we have dinosaurs! Pirates! All kinds of tribal goodies!

Most relevant to us is that preorder season has begun. I know that usually, preodering is a really terrible idea, but recent sets have gotten better about preorder prices. It’s gotten to the point that so many stay away, and wait, and then some cards went up.

Today I want to look at some of the preorder prices and see if anything is worth getting in on.

Walk the Plank ($.50 preorder) – The flavor is amazing, and it’s a good card for just two black. It’s a sorcery, though, so this is not Fatal Push. It’s a bit worse than you think it is, being a sorcery. Very fairly priced.

Old-Growth Dryads ($3) – If you weren’t playing a basic before, then it’s time to do so. I think this has potential to grow, especially in foil. The presence of Path to Exile in Modern and Ghost Quarter have pushed people to include a couple of basics (even Tron with a miser’s Wastes, so this isn’t the slam dunk you want it to be. Best friends with Leonin Arbiter. There’s a very good chance that given the manabases possible in Standard, we’d skip out on basics when we want multicolor lands. This is the penalty for that strategy, and might be a more popular sideboard card than maindeck. In either case, this isn’t worth the $3…yet.

Revel in Riches ($0.79) – First of all, yes, this works with Anointed Procession. Alternate win conditions. Doubling token creation! I want this to be good, I really do, and it is going to be good in some sort of black control deck. I don’t think I like it as much as Approach of the Second Sun, though, so I don’t see this budging.

Herald of Secret Streams ($1) – This is pretty great in the strategies that want it. Thankfully, Nissa, Voice of Zendikar just rotated out and so people are going to have to go back to Verdurous Gearhulk/Rishkar, Peema Renegade for their counter needs. The downside is that you won’t want lots of this in your deck, as they don’t stack. I think it’ll have a good showing and make $2, but that might not be right away. Foils are a different matter, and given the appeal in Commander, I love foils of this at $5 or less. I wonder if this is a seed for a future set, given how +1/+1 counters aren’t a strong theme in this set.

Sanguine Sacrament ($0.50) – Pure lifegain is bad, but this is going to rise from the bulk in a few years. I have trouble seeing it as more than bulk while it’s Standard legal, though.

Tocatli Honor Guard ($2) – Torpor Orb is a very powerful Commander card if your opponents are addicted to value creatures, but having this effect in Standard is terribly intriguing. This dies to every removal spell being played, though, including a non-revolted Fatal Push. I think this price is spot-on for now, and in a couple months when it’s fifty cents, I’ll want to have a few tucked away.

River’s Rebuke ($1.50) – I despise this card, but at least it’s a sorcery, and not an instant as Cyclonic Rift is. I’m going to be picking up every foil I can at $3-$5 right away, though.

Sunbird’s Invocation ($0.50) – I love what this does, and I think there’s both some really strong long-term potential and yet there’s also a very high reprint risk. This is exactly the type of card that will be in Commander 2019. I will be picking some of these up for the casual appeal, especially in foil.

Settle the Wreckage ($1.50) – Too high a price. Commander won’t run this, and other formats likely won’t either. You’d need an absurd ratio, something like exiling three creatures and them getting just one land.

Carnage Tyrant ($8) – Not as good as Thrun, the Last Troll in Modern, so that outlet is gone. We have had a few giant hexproofers printed before, and Plated Crusher is about to rotate out. Same card, one less mana and can’t be countered. This is a trap. Don’t buy this unless you’re hellbent on doing this deck in week one. This might well be a good sideboard card, but those don’t tend to be this expensive. Some have said it’s a mythic for Limited, and it’ll end up pretty cheap.

Kopala, Warden of Waves ($2) – We are going to need to see more Merfolk to know if this is good in Standard. I’ll let you decide if you’d rather play this or play Kira, Great Glass-Spinner in your Modern Merfolk deck. I don’t want nonfoils yet, but I’ll be listening if the foils have a reasonable price, around $5.

Gishath, Sun’s Avatar ($7) – Makes Mayael good and Mayael’s Aria amazing. If there’s going to be a Dinosaur Commander deck, here’s the commander and just for fun, here’s the graph on the Aria:

The foil of the Aria can be had for $7-$8 right now, and that price isn’t going to last. I think $7 is a touch too high for Gishath, but I also think the casual appeal is through the roof on this.

Deeproot Champion ($1) – This is underpriced, to my mind. There are a lot of decks where this is better than Tarmogoyf, though the Champion has vulnerability early on. This can be thought of as permanent Prowess. So if that ability is decent in a deck, this card is bonkers. I especially am hoping to get foils for $3 or less early on.

Arcane Adaptation ($2) – Ah, combo pieces. Where would we be without you? I think this is a fair price for the card, but I want foils pretty badly. It’s a cheaper Conspiracy, a cheaper and better Xenograft. Neither of those has moved much, but this is the new one, and backup copies to combo decks are useful. Turntimber Ranger has a new buddy!

Vanquisher’s Banner ($2) – Travis and I talked about this on MTG Fast Finance, and it’s because this preorder price is too low. This should be $4 or $5. It’s total gas for the tribal decks that Wizards is pushing, and while it is expensive at five mana, it makes all of your creatures cantrips. That’s pretty outstanding, and I look forward to playing both this and Lifecrafter’s Bestiary at every opportunity.