By: Cliff Daigle

Dragons of Tarkir has no shortage of awesome cards. Some of these are build-around-me additions to a Cube, others will make waves in Tiny Leaders, and several seem to be designed for the kitchen table crowd. I am going to talk about a few of these, along with the price I’m comfortable getting in at. If something blows up in Standard or other Constructed format, my pricing will undoubtedly be off.

Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit – Sure, she’s amazing in Tiny Leaders, but she’s also an enabler in all sorts of White Weenie strategies. Her mana cost is probably the biggest thing holding her back, as it’s not easy to get double white on turn two. Pick her up for $1 or less.

Hidden Dragonslayer – The rule about Morphs in EDH or Cube was this: it’s either Exalted Angel or Willbender. Khans block has given us some amazing morphs, and this cycle of cheap, powerful Megamorphs might be among the best of all. Singleton formats are where you really want flexibility, and you have a range of useful things to do here. That said, I think this is another dollar rare.

Profound Journey – I had Obzedat’s Aid in my Kaalia deck for the longest time, and it’s…serviceable. It has been cut, and while this is potentially twice as powerful, it costs even more. What’s really going to bother you is how often you spend seven mana and get back something that costs a lot less. Bulk rare.

Radiant Purge – I think this might be one of the sneakier cards of the set. Two mana for an instant-speed exile effect is not to be undervalued. It’s true that it would be better if it said “Exile target multicolored permanent” but we just got Utter End for such universal applications. I think this will hold a price due to being a popular sideboard card in Standard, so around $2.

Secure the Wastes – Believe it or not, while we’ve had numerous versions of this effect before, we’ve never had one this cheap, especially as an instant! This is an auto-include in any EDH token strategy, and I think it’s good enough for Cube too. I’ll be especially interested in foils around four or five dollars.

Clone Legion – In case you forgot, Wizards R & D plays a lot of EDH. This is a neat way to either win more on your own awesome board, or play catch-up with just one card. This is not a Standard card, this is absolutely a haymaker, battlecruiser, giant Commander effect. This is going to be better than you think it is, no matter if you’re ahead, behind, or at parity. It’s not going to be bulk, but I’ll be surprised if it’s ever more than $2 in nonfoil.

Living Lore – Some people are going to try and make this good. Don’t be one of those people. Bulkiest of bulk, until some weird Legacy combo pops up.

Stratus Dancer – I think this card is good enough for Standard, though to be honest, I’m not someone who plays a lot of that. Nonetheless, every mode on this card seems good. A 2/1 flyer for two is a good starting point, and if you have the time and mana, holding up an uncounterable counterspell for their sweeper is pretty amazing. I like this a lot in Cube and Commander too. This might be the priciest of the cycle, at around $3.

Hedonist’s Trove – This basically gives you a second library to play cards from. There’s a lot to be said for effects like this, but the problem is that you have to do a lot of work to fill their graveyard. I love it, but I’m not going to try and play it. Bulk.

Blood-Chin Fanatic – Kresh the Bloodbraided has a new best friend. So does Hamletback Goliath. The pieces are there on a decent body for the price, but this will struggle to be more than a dollar or two.

Damnable Pact – There is a lot of fun to be had with these two modes. With a little mana, it’s a way to get a couple of cards. With lots of mana, it’s the finisher against people with low life or small libraries. It’s a surprisingly versatile spell, and should be considered in most decks. The card I’d measure it against is Diabolic Revelation, except that Revelation is a terrible card at less than seven, whereas there’s plenty of games I’d be happy to cast this for two or three. I think this will have a nice home around $2.

Virulent Plague – Hear me out. You should be giving serious consideration to playing this in most of your Commander/Tiny Leaders games. There’s very few tokens that can survive this without help, and mostly those are 3/3 Beasts and 4/4 Angels, which need to be cut down in size anyway. This is also an intriguing sideboard card in Modern, at least until Splinter Twin gets banned. I’ll be looking for foils of this around $1.50.

Descent of Dragons – I know that lots of people have fooled around with this, looking for combos that generate all sorts of advantages, but I’m thinking about how if I already have a bunch of creatures, I should be winning anyway. This is a mana less than Devout Invocation, and that’s a dollar mythic.

I think Descent’s price is going to open high on assorted hype and will trickle downward. I won’t be trying to get these until they fall to $5 or lower.

Impact Tremors – If you see someone lay this down on turn two in a Commander game, your target is acquired. This is half of the cost of Purphoros, for half the damage, so you’ll need twice as many tokens to be generated. Very doable. I’ll be watching for foils under $1.

Lightning Berserker – This card might be the real deal in mono-red decks. It also might not be. It’s not quite as durable as Monastery Swiftspear, but is there a better late topdeck? Perhaps the question is, would a red deck play this over Crater’s Claws? Some combination thereof? I think it’ll be worth picking these up in trades throughout the draft season, just in case.

Rending Volley – This might as well say “Best Sideboard Card Against Twin” on it. Spellskite can’t touch it, and it’s got Combust beaten by a full mana. I’m going to be looking for these around 50-75 cents, and I’m game for $5 foils. This is a very Cube-able card as well.

Roast – Yes, the damage can’t hit a flyer, and that’s a big mark against it. But everything else is amazing. Two mana! Who cares if it’s a sorcery, just get in there! Tasigur, Siege Rhino, you name the wingless problem and it’s solved. I feel good about this being about a dollar, and the foils should be around $5. This and Rending Volley might well be some very premium foils if eternal red decks decide it’s worth it.

Zurgo – He is who he is. He’s certainly not who he was. Poor guy. Stay away.

Assault Formation – Even in foil, I’m not interested. Rolling Stones has been a card for a long time, and neither of its foils can crack $5.

Inspiring Call – I meant to add this to last week’s piece, as this is something my Experiment Kraj deck wants very very badly in foil. I expect I’ll pay about $2 for that.

All Foil Commands – Be very wary of picking these up without having a specific plan in mind. Some of the multicolor modal cards are very high in foil, some are not. I want a foil Silumgar’s Command, and others will be wanting these in foil, but the key is in their eternal playability. Boros Charm is the best example, but even Golgari Charm is getting good mileage and expensive foils. I’m going to let the metagame sort the commands for me before I move in.

By: Cliff Daigle

I play a lot of Commander games. I used to play even more, but with my family’s growth the last couple of years, my EDH time isn’t what it used to be. Nonetheless, I keep my decks updated when new sets come out. I usually tell people to know what they will take out before you go and add new cards, but I usually end up getting the new card and then figuring it out.

I am working from an incomplete spoiler. Next week, I’ll be completing the list and targeting prices.

I can’t remember if I have introduced you to my six decks, so here we go!

Existing Commander Decks

Commander: Adun Oakenshield
Philosophy: “Creatures rule!”

This deck has six noncreature spells: Lavalanche, Xenagos, the Reveler, Garruk, Caller of Beasts, Green Sun’s Zenith, Lurking Predators, and See the Unwritten. Everything else is a creature, and I want to focus on spell-like creatures in this deck. Mostly, it’s enter the battlefield effects, but I keep some others around like Viridian Zealot in case of Torpor Orb.

Commander: Kaalia of the Vast
Philsophy: Wreck some face!

I have spent the time and energy and money to get this manabase ‘perfect.’ There’s three fetches, three duals, three shocks, three filters, three buddy lands…you get the idea. This is my most competitive deck, capable of the fastest kills, and the most expensive, due to the Angel foils that just keep climbing! I have a mix of Angels, Dragons, and Demons because I don’t want to choose just one!

Commander: Garza Zol, Plague Queen
Philosophy: Shiny Vampire Control

I didn’t intend for this to become my all-foil deck, but it happened. I kept finding shiny replacements, and then it was just a few cards…and now it’s done. The vampire tribe is surprisingly strong, dating back to 2011 Standard: Bloodghast into Nighthawk into Nocturnus can end even Commander games fast. I’ve got a lot of fun and flexible control cards, and my MPR cards are here too.

Commander: Sliver Queen
Philosophy: For the Swarm!

This is my token deck. I try to have about a third of the cards be an army contained on one card, including Planeswalkers that make tokens. Everything else contributes to big mana and winning more. It’s five colors but light on nonbasics, so I use a lot of green mana fixing.

Commander: Experiment Kraj
Philosophy: Incredible abilities without going infinite

While I have lots of fun ways to untap Kraj for profit, I’ve shied away from any infinite-mana shenanigans. I found that style of deck to be unfun. The best card in here is probably Reveka, Wizard Savant, as a great way to deal damage.

Commander: Balthor the Defiled
Philosophy: Rise and rise again!

This zombie tribal deck is a lot of fun, as I have lots of mass reanimation and that’s what the general is for as well, sorcery-speed mass return. The combination of Vengeful Dead and Noxious Ghoul do a lot of work, and a sneaky-great zombie is actually Gutless Ghoul, giving a sacrifice for profit.

Pickups from Dragons

Dragon Tempest – Kaalia decks are going to love this card. Very few Angels, Demons, or Dragons don’t have flying, and having Kaalia enter with Haste is quite awesome. This will be a strict upgrade over Fervor for me. I will be trying to get a foil around $3-$5, but this will be a bulk card before long.

Shaman of Forgotten Ways – I’ve tried Somberwald Sage in decks in the past, and found it underwhelming. Acceleration and fixing are not as needed in 99-card formats. The additional ability on this, though, is an ability that has been deemed too good on a sorcery: Biorhythm. I will be picking this up from every trade binder I see it in. I want regular ones around $5 by the end of April. The foils will probably not go below $20 for a while, if at all.

Sidisi, Undead Vizier – Just amazing in my zombie deck. I’ve no shortage of things to Exploit for profit, and this is something I’ll be happy to do over and over again. This appears to be good enough for Standard, so I think it’ll stay between $5-$10 for the next couple of months. Foils should easily be $15, if not more.

Sarkhan Unbroken – I will put one of these into my Sliver Queen deck, because of the token ability. I will never ultimate this, since there aren’t any Dragons in that deck. The first two abilities are just so good, you’ll need to have him in a dedicated Dragon deck to ever really have the ultimate be worthwhile. I think this is one of the best cards in Standard, if you can cast it, and I have a hard time thinking this will be less than $30 at any point. I want a foil, but I’m not going to drop $100 on it.

Risen Executioner – Another easy addition to my Balthor deck, as it’s a zombie lord. I might sometimes pay the tax on recasting this, but mostly it’ll be there alongside Cemetery Reaper and the like. I think this will be a bulk mythic fast, and the foils should hover around $5.

Silumgar’s Command – I’m already playing Spite//Malice and I’m trying to decide if this is good enough to be included as well, or if I’ll just be replacing it. I’ve got Countersquall as well, so I’m going to try and fit this in. Bloodlord of Vaasgoth just isn’t pulling his weight…

I expect this command to be around $1/$4 for the foil, and I’m okay picking it up at that price. The modes are good enough that I think it’ll keep value for a while. The ‘noncreature spell’ part is most relevant, as there’s few enough creatures that need countering. That’s what Wrath effects are for.

Those are the five cards I’m planning on adding, next week with the full spoiler I’ll talk about some of the cards that are almost there, and the ones you’ll see a lot in casual games.

On an unrelated note, I want to clue you all in to Channel Fireball’s “Yard Sale” and a finance trick I’ve been using for years.

Full Disclaimer: I don’t work for Channel Fireball, though I do live in driving distance of their shop. This month, they are having a series of sales, and it’s the sort of thing that Star City has done, and other sites too. Systematic sales are your chance to exchange cards at a fair rate with full value.

Allow me to explain. Normally, when you deal with a vendor, you are never going to get the full retail value of your card. You’re going to get around 40-50% of its value in cash, and maybe 70-80% if you choose store credit.

These wide-scale sales allow you to get cards at enough of a discount to make it tempting to trade directly with a store. Here’s an example:

Hero’s Downfall has a Fair Trade Price of $7.54 as I write this. Anafenza, the Foremost, has a FTP of $7.81. I would happily trade my Downfall for your Anafenza, since it’s so close in price. However, lots of people are savvy to the fact that Downfall is going to rotate out in a few months and tank in value, while Anafenza has nowhere to go but up as a Standard card and a Tiny Leaders powerhouse. So you would have trouble finding someone to make this trade with.

Enter the vendor’s sale. Channelfireball will give four dollars in cash for Hero’s Downfall, with a 30% bonus for store credit ($5.20) and their sale currently has Anafenza down to $5.99. This is not perfect, as you see, but it’s pretty close and it’s an effective tool to use when a vendor decides to hold a sale.

You don’t have to spend the store credit during the sale, but doing so allows you to treat a vendor as a trading partner who gives nearly equal value, which is something that doesn’t happen often. Enjoy!

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By: Cliff Daigle

It’s going to be an expensive summer.

First of all, there’s going to be a very short window in which to buy Dragons of Tarkir cards. This will be under-opened in proportion to other big spring sets, like Rise of the Eldrazi and Avacyn Restored. Those sets were 6-of or 3-of for Sealed or Draft respectively, whereas Fate Reforged is still part of Dragons of Tarkir limited events.

Let’s return to our fictional LGS, where they do one FNM draft per week with exactly eight people, and look at the packs opened during the three ‘seasons’ of Khans block:

Totals: 480 packs of Khans of Tarkir, 192 packs of Fate Reforged, and 192 of Dragons of Tarkir.

From a ratio standpoint, we have a 5:2:2 ratio, meaning that Fate Reforged and Dragons of Tarkir will have been opened less than half as much as Khans of Tarkir! Keep in mind that Dragons is a big set, with more potential mythics and rares.

Let me repeat myself, so you can see the severe disparity in packs opened. For three months, we drafted triple Khans. For three months after that, we drafted two packs of Khans, giving us a very large supply of Khans cards. We are about to have three months where just two packs of DTK are opened, and that three months is going to be reduced by some amount, depending on how much time stores and players give to Modern Masters in May. 

Modern Masters 2015 is released on May 22, a mere two months after Dragons of Tarkir arrives. If all events switch from Dragons to MM for that month, we reduce the third season’s numbers by a third, and have a ration of 480:161:130, or about a 4 : 1.2 : 1 ratio. That’s the worst-case scenario for doing DDF events, the reality is going to fall somewhere between that and the 5:2:2 ratio.

It seems unlikely that all stores will have enough product and enough interest to run a full month of Modern Masters events, but if there is enough money and enough hype around this set, Dragons might be the most chase of sets. Investing in singles from this set is likely to pay off well.

The analogy last year would be how Theros – Born of the Gods – Journey into Nyx drafting was impacted by Conspiracy. Even if it’s just a couple of weeks, a month tops, that’s a big chunk of already short time, and money that’s being spent elsewhere. I would imagine that Magic Origins will be drafted thoroughly (more on that in a moment) so don’t expect to have some drafts taken away from a boring set and given to the slightly older format.

The urge to pick up Dragons of Tarkir singles will be with me at all times, but especially this spring leading into summer. This is a big, ally-colored, powerful set, with cards that will be relevant for their entire Standard lives, which will end in fall of 2016. I fully expect to be trading for lots of these and buying a few too. I’m even thinking about pre-ordering some of these…no, wait, I won’t.

I’ll reiterate this piece of advice: Preordering is only good if you have to have a card for the first week that it’s legal, or if you’re 100% sure that the card is going to have immediate and thorough impact in Constructed. Most of the preorder speculation you do will not be profitable, as card prices drop.

Dragons of Tarkir might be different, but probably not. We will see. The small quantity and small window has me wondering. Imagine if there were 40% less Hero’s Downfall, or Siege Rhino out there! The Rhino might be a $25 or $30 card. As the spoilers emerge, we’ll have to be on the lookout.

In just a couple of months, we have Modern Masters 2015 dropping. At $10 a pack, this is going to bust your wallet into pieces. There’s going to be more of this printed than in 2013, and there’s already a markup involved…but that’s not going to stop stores from having $45 drafts.

I am leery of buying packs/boxes for value, but this will especially be true for MM2015 packs. I’m reserving judgement on what I’ll do until I know more of the set, but there is going to have to be TREMENDOUS value in the cards to make cracking packs worth it.

Plus, that value will have to stay high even as those super-valuable packs are cracked! The low print run and increased demand of new Modern players meant that cards like Vendilion Clique, Dark Confidant, and Tarmogoyf didn’t lose value (and went up in some cases!)

Perhaps this will be the fabled “No bad cards” set. Even the first Modern Masters had the Kamigawa dragons as a mythic cycle, so we will see what Wizards does to make four packs of this have the same MSRP as a From the Vaults set. Maybe we get the Praetor cycle, but those values would take quite a hit, likely losing half their value or more.

(As an aside, I know that MSRP is not a rule, especially for the FTV sets, but it’s still a number Wizards attaches to products.)

Next, we have Magic Origins in July. Not just any Core Set, apparently, and they wanted to avoid all the ‘M16’ jokes.

So far, we know that Nissa, Gideon, Jace, Liliana, and Chandra are getting the attention. We have been told that ten worlds will be featured, two for each planeswalker: an origin world and the first plane they went to.

I’ll talk more about those worlds soon, but we have it confirmed that Nissa’s home of Zendikar will be among the locales. It seems quite possible that the enemy fetches will be in Origins!

Since the ally fetches were spoiled in Khans, it’s been a matter of when, not if, the Zendikar ones would be reprinted. What a way for the Core Sets to go, with this one having Scalding Tarn and its brethren.

It’s been pointed out in several places that putting the fetchlands in a set will guarantee high sales, and that’s true, but Wizards has evolved its model to not need the summer set to be the big seller. There’s also the philosophy that Standard doesn’t need to have all ten fetches legal at the same time. Both of these feel true, but I’m aware that Wizards’ logic is not laways the same as mine.

I would advocate selling/trading your extra Zendikar fetches soon, no matter what set they are reprinted in they will take a hit. Keep the ones in your Commander deck, keep a set for Eternal play, and move the rest. Don’t get caught with excess stock when the spoiler hits.

We also have FTV: Angels arriving in August. I’m already on the record with my predictions, and I’m going to make a further proclamation: this will keep its value very well, and not just Avacyn. Angels are one of the premier and most popular tribes, and these foils are going to get snapped up and locked into thousands upon thousands of casual decks.

I think that you’ll be able to get these for around $60 once the initial IMUSTHAVEITNOW wave is done, and at that price, I’ll be happy to get an extra set or two for long-term storage. That price will change if the Angels in the set are pricier than I expect (It’s not out of the question for Wizards to go financially big and give us Iona, Linvala, Avacyn, and Baneslayer, for example) but that seems unlikely to me.

Patience on an FTV is often rewarded. Even Legends, which didn’t go for much over MSRP at the time, is more than $100 now. Part of that is the passage of time, since anything from four years ago has an increase in value, but there’s been a real increase for FTV: Realms in half the time.

Bonus Buy: I told you about Dragonspeaker Shaman a few weeks ago, and now Dragonlord’s Servant has been spoiled. It’s an uncommon, so it looks like the Shaman will not be in the set and the old foils are due to go up, what with all the new Dragon decks being built. I tweeted about it Wednesday, when TCG had 11 foils under $10 and 4 more between $10-$15.

By: Cliff Daigle

So next week we begin Dragons of Tarkir previews, though it seems like we just finished spoiler season for Fate Reforged.

There’s three premises I want to keep in mind as we leave Khans and enter Dragons:

#1: This is a big set in the spring slot, such as Rise of the Eldrazi or Avacyn Restored, but Sealed and Draft events are still opening some Fate Reforged. Those two sets have had a lot of value in the long term, because they were opened less than big fall sets. Dragons of Tarkir has a very good chance to contain some cards that will go up significantly, due to that reduced volume being opened.

#2: The new rotation schedule means that Dragons of Tarkir will only be Standard legal until fall 2016. This is the first spring set to rotate at a different time than the fall and winter sets of its respective block.

#3: Khans is no longer being opened in Draft or Sealed events, and that tells us it’s time to start picking up Khans cards, now that supply is at its maximum and prices are near their lowest.

With these ideas in mind (point #1 about which Dragons cards to buy will just have to wait three weeks till the full spoiler is out) I want to go over Khans cards that I think have room to grow in about the next six months, or grow even more if they have value outside Standard.

Fetchlands

Before anything else, I want to see what recent history has been like for the shocklands. I’m looking to see if they took a hit or even went up since they rotated from Standard.

Some fluctuation, and Vents is possibly the most popular shockland in Modern. Blue lands will often be a bit more expensive because blue has been the best color. (Note the price gap from Underground Sea to Plateau!)

So if I’m buying fetches now, I’m seeking pure value. I’m not going to see a big gain in price, but it’ll be excellent trade bait. At worst, fetches aren’t going to go down in price. At best, they begin a steady upward trend, but I think that is rather unlikely for at least a couple of years (going by what the shocks have done).

Foil fetches

I am going to bang this drum as loud and as hard as I can for you: buy these now. NOW. Foil shocks gained 20% to 50% within a year of rotating, and getting foil fetches right now will save you money in the long run. These will not take a hit at rotation.

Foil Delta and Strand will not stay under $100 much longer. They are just too good in the Eternal formats. The other three, being $50-$60 right now, are excellent candidates to gain value on a similar track as the foil shocklands did.

If you’re someone who likes to foil out a deck, or likes to have high-end foils, get on the wagon now. You’ll thank me. I want to reiterate this point: I don’t know what the ceiling is, I just know that we are at the floor.

Foil Empty the Pits

At $6, it’s close to a steal. It’s great in casual token decks, and Zombie decks too. If you wanted to wait, I’d understand, but don’t sleep on its long-term casual appeal.

Foil Monastery Swiftspear

You might laugh, but this is seeing a tremendous amount of Eternal play. For example, there was a Star City Games Modern open on February 16. There were five decks in the top 16 that ran a full playset of these in the main. Note it’s a nearly-$3 uncommon and a $20 foil. It’s not hard to imagine the foils doubling by the time rotation hits, and not losing any value at rotation, simply due to the number of people playing it in Legacy and Modern.

My colleague James Chillcott bought a foil set of Japanese Swiftspears for $32 at the beginning and sold them at $240. I would not be surprised at all to see the JP foils hit $75 or even $100 in the next year. This is one of the ways that a Burn deck can go from budget to pimp, and you should spend accordingly.

Siege Rhino

Another card that has lots of room to grow, now that Khans isn’t being opened as much. I like picking up both foils and nonfoils right now, at about $10/$20. I’d be looking to move the nonfoils in the next few months, but the foils could prove to have real legs.

Siege Rhino might be an excellent case study for Cube appeal. If you can manage the mana, this pays you off very well, but not every Cube is designed to have enough fixing for three colors on turn four. Sure, splashing for Fireball and the like is a longtime tradition, but would you splash this? Perhaps the better question is, can you?

Foil Clever Impersonator 

With a foil multiplier at about 6x, this has my eye. I’m all for picking these up and just waiting. As I said way back when Khans first came out, this is the best Clone effect ever, depending on how you feel about Phantasmal Image. Picking these up under $20 right now is a steal, because they are going to increase, slowly but surely.

Foil Treasure Cruise

While some vendors I talked to at GP San Jose wanted to be picking these up at buylist prices, there are plenty of larger vendors who are staying away altogether. (For instance, this card is not on ChannelFireball’s buylist.) If I were able to buy these at $3-$5, I would be thinking about it too.

As an individual, though, I’m staying away unless the price absolutely craters at rotation. The nearest example I can find to this card is Mental Misstep. It seems unlikely that a card banned in Modern and Legacy can have a price this high, but everything is keyed in on the price of entry. Did you buy at the lowest? Great! Sock these away for a while.

Foil Dig Through Time

I’m happy to wait until rotation for these to hit a low, because not enough people will keep this at that time, since it isn’t legal in Modern. It’s still Legacy-approved, though!

Don’t buy this yet…but be thinking about it.

Prerelease Foils

In case you didn’t know, both Khans and Fate Reforged had prereleases where a few foils were stamped with the date of that prerelease. There were 40 in Khans and 30 in Fate Reforged, and it’s not yet clear how many there will be in Dragons of Tarkir’s prerelease packs, if there are any.

These are not quite alternate-art cards, but they represent an additional layer of scarcity. When you find these in random binders, trade for them at the foil price or a little more. Having the rarest version of a card sometimes comes in handy.

All of these are things to consider, now that Khans isn’t being opened. This is different from rotational planning, these are cards that I’m picking up for the longer-term haul.

Next week, we cover this coming summer’s giant money vacuum!