All posts by Cliff Daigle

I am a father, teacher, cuber and EDH fanatic. My joy is in Casual and Limited formats, though I dip a toe into Constructed when I find something fun to play. I play less than I want to and more than my schedule should really allow. I can easily be reached on Twitter @WordOfCommander. Try out my Busted Uncommons cube at http://www.cubetutor.com/viewcube/76330
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The Curious Case of Time Travel

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By: Cliff Daigle

Almost a year ago, I wrote about the 6:2:1 ratio when it came to the ‘usual’ model of how a three-set block ends up opening lots and lots more of the big fall set and a lot less of the following two expansions. Wizards has thrown out that model and Khans block is the last time we’re going to have three sets in a block. (Well, until they do something freaky in a few years)

In case you didn’t know, we’re embarking on a unique set, with Fate Reforged being drafted next to Khans of Tarkir for the next three months, and then with Dragons of Tarkir for three months after that!

I bring this up for a few reasons: First, we’ve got three months of opening two Khans packs ahead of us. Fetches, Sarkhan, Siege Rhino…all of these have not hit their bottom. There’s room for them to go up in price if a deck breaks out, but we’re going to get lots more of the cards you’re already familiar with.

Put another way: Look at the Khans price list. Now take everything below Bloodstained Mire and cut its price by 30% or so. I think the fetches and the planeswalkers will not lose as much value, but the others are going to have their supply increase more than the demand does.

The FRF-DTK-DTK drafts mean that Khans of Tarkir will have the supply cut off abruptly, and prices will bottom out sooner than in most years.

The second point here is that we’re going to get one pack of Fate Reforged in each draft for the next six months. I want to do the math and see where that leads us. We’re going to use the same example of a barely-attended store, which does one draft per week with exactly eight people.

8 people in a draft 3 drafts per month 3 months in a season
3 packs of Khans of Tarkir 24 packs 72 packs 216 packs

 

8 people/draft 3 drafts/month 3 months/season
1 pack of Fate Reforged 8 packs 24 packs 72 packs
2 packs of Khans of Tarkir 16 packs 48 packs 144 packs

So far, everything is the same. No reason to change anything, but let’s add in the final season of this block:

8 people/draft 3 drafts/month 3 months/season
1 pack of Fate Reforged 8 packs 24 packs 72 packs
2 packs of Dragons of Tarkir 16 packs 48 packs 144 packs

 

So in our example store, we will have opened 360 packs of Khans, 144 packs of Fate Reforged, and 144 packs of Dragons of Tarkir, a final ratio of 5:2:2.

It’s very noteworthy that Dragons is also going to be a big set, but will be opened less than half as much as Khans was!

So what do we do with this information?

First of all, I’m freezing out Khans singles right now. I’m not trading for them or buying them. We’ve got a lot left to open.

Second, I’m not going after anything too hard from Fate Reforged, especially at pre-order prices. Too many of those are just going to drop and never recover.

Third, I’m already planning on saving my trade and liquid capital to move on Dragons of Tarkir cards. This set will be opened a full 33% less than any other big set, and even if Magic 2016 is a dud to draft, not many stores will go backwards and draft FRF-DTK-DTK.

Finally, a reminder that Khans block is going to rotate out in Spring of 2016, not Fall. That’s six months early, and a topic you’re going to hear a lot more about.

For the Prerelease this weekend:

  1. If you open the foil alternate-art Ugin, hold on to it. This weekend will represent the largest supply of these cards and the lowest price. If Ugin ends up as an awesome card in Modern Tron decks, then the pimp foil has yet another outlet to fetch a high price. Commander players all want the card anyway! (Including me)
  2. Trade away almost everything else. Supply on Fate Reforged this week is at its lowest, and you should sell into the hype. Everything is hyped, so move it all.
  3. The exception to this rule is Whisperwood Elemental. This is an amazing casual card but it’s also pretty great in Standard, as a free source of card advantage. I think it has room to grow, and multiple sites are increasing their preorder price on it.

Good luck to you this weekend!

 

Casual Fridays

The Fate of Dragons

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By: Cliff Daigle

Spoiler season! It’s the best. In fact, the full spoiler may be released by the time you’re reading this. (Wizards did that to me with Khans of Tarkir!)

EDITORS NOTE: Umm, sorry Cliff… (MTGPrice.com will have prices as soon as it’s officially up on Gatherer)

We have two full cycles of Legendary creatures in this set, both at rare and not mythic. They are aligned with two- or three- color combinations, and for casual play, there are notable implications. Let’s start with the best of all: Dragons! 

There are five two-color legendary Dragons in this set, and they all grant a bonus to attacking Dragons. Naturally, this means we want a Dragon-themed deck! I would imagine that most people reading this would have built a Dragon deck at some point, either a casual 60-card one or an EDH deck or something. I know I had a stack of Revised Shivan Dragons!

Fate Reforged has common Dragons, and a significant number of uncommon one. We get only our third mono-green Dragon too! The next set is named Dragons of Tarkir, indicating that we’ll get a few big flyers there as well.

What does this mean? We’re looking for cards that play well with Dragons. We’re looking for cards that enable casual Dragon strategies, or that synthesize well with the tribe.

Our first contestant is Dragonspeaker Shaman. I will be surprised if this card isn’t reprinted sometime this block. It’s already had three printings and it is at $5, but its only foil is at $8. I really like picking up the old-border foils right now, because if there’s a new version that comes out, the older, different foil will be a bit more sought after.

It’s interesting that despite being in two supplementary products, this price is still so high for non-foils. It’s barely second place behind Knight of the Reliquary in the Duel Deck! I’d expect the price of nonfoils to fall if it is added to Standard, though.

Dragon Roost, as a source of Dragon tokens that doesn’t die to creature removal, could be a fun target. Even foils are under $5, but it’s got two versions to choose from.

Utvara Hellkite is creeping upward. It’s a mythic in a very popular set, but it’s ridiculously good in multiples and if there’s one thing casual players like, it’s winning with more and more Dragon tokens.

Another card I’m intrigued by is Crucible of Fire. It’s a super-cheap pickup right now, and please don’t overlook how many people build 60-card casual decks. Commander is not the only casual format, and Crucible is outstanding in multiples. I would be content to get a stack of Crucible for under fifty cents, and just wait.

Dragonstorm is also appealingly cheap right now. It’s got multiple foil versions to choose from, and the new rare Dragons really like dumping a lot of Dragons into play. I wouldn’t mind having a few more of these, even if they cost nine to cast!

The cards I’m most excited about, though, are a set of Mirage legends that are now on the Reserved List: Hivis of the Scale, Rashida Scalebane, and Zirilan of the Claw. The first two are under fifty cents, and Zirilan is up to nearly $2 because he’s amazing in a Commander deck. These are not going to get reprinted, and they interact amazingly well when casual games have lots of Dragons. One is a Soldier that kills Dragons, one steals others’ Dragons, and the other grabs Dragon after Dragon out of your deck and fills your graveyard.

As cards that Wizards won’t reprint and rares from a set released nearly eighteen years ago, these are excellent candidates for a spike.

I don’t like moving in on Kargan Dragonlord or Dragonmaster Outcast right now. The price is already high and a reprint of either mythic would be disastrous for their prices. They are fun cards, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t condone picking them up, even if a reprint of a Level Up creature is unlikely right now.

Something else I’m not high on is the pair of Dragon legends, Karrthus, Tyrant of Jund and Scion of the Ur-Dragon. I am aware that these are not the only choices for a Commander, but they are possibly the best. Karrthus is in the main Dragon colors and gives theft and haste, while Scion is the only five-color choice…for now. Scion being a $50 foil reflects the popularity of having the five-color deck. I don’t see a lot of growth for the foil, but if you wanted to pick up nonfoil Scion at around $2, that’s pretty safe and might be a fun thing to trade to someone about to build their first Dragon-themed deck.

It bears repeating that Commander and R & D are closely linked. Members of the Commander Rules Committee work at Wizards. The things that players want to have, Wizards wants to give. I would call it unlikely that we’ll get a set called Dragons of Tarkir without getting a new five-color Legend, but I’ve been wrong before.

 

Casual Fridays

Resolutions

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By: Cliff Daigle

Welcome to the new year! This year, we’re getting a new Modern Masters, the death of Core Sets, and a faster, more frequent rotation out of Standard. It promises to be a heck of a year, and so I’ve made a few promises to myself. Perhaps some of them will resonate with you.

#1: Play more Magic

I know it seems like a simplistic goal, considering how much I love this game, but due to moving and babies and lots of other little things, I didn’t play nearly as much Magic as I wanted in 2014. I’d like to attend a couple of big events and get to FNM at least once a month, and attend my first Prerelease since Gatecrash!

#2: Don’t cash out this year

At least once in 2012, 2013, and 2014 I sold big chunks of cards for big real-life expenses. Car repairs, moving money, and to buy a new Tempurpedic bed. (I cannot recommend this bed strongly enough!) Mostly, that came out of my EDH decks, as I’ve downsized to six Commander decks, from my maximum of 15 a few years ago.

I’ve never put a lot of capital into my collection, but taking value out this way, several times in a row, has really lowered the value of the things I have for trade. I don’t regret the loss, as I got what I needed when I needed it, but I would like to spend some time increasing the value without taking any out.

#3: Reorganize binders

Right now, I have four binders of varying sizes: I have my main trade binder, a second one with all my signed cards and speculative cards, a third which contains only cards I’ve taken out of Commander decks, and a fourth that is a Conspiracy foil set-in-progress.

I will trade out of the second and third, but only when there’s something I really want. The problem is that I’ve taken so much out of the first binder, so I often end up showing these other two. I need to go through and classify things better.

#4: Introduce a new player

This is a goal all of us should have. Introduce someone to Magic. It can be in any format, any method. Go slow, and remember that this is a very complex game. Magic’s player base has grown an incredible amount these few years, and if you get the chance, you should bring someone new into the fold.

It also counts if you bring someone back into the game. Remember, Magic used to be big enough that in 1997, the World Championships were televised! Lots of people used to play, and gave it up. Perhaps you’ll get someone back into the game that has some unsorted Alpha laying around, and you’ll help them get a lot of value!

#5: Watch more Magic

I love watching Twitch’s stream, be it the official Magic channel or SCGLive or anything live. I especially love coverage of high-level drafting, but somehow, I’m addicted to watching streams or recordings. The archives of video coverage are enough to get me lost for hours and hours, unless it’s hours and hours of Whip of Erebos mirror matches. Ugh.

Skipping shuffling/sideboarding time is the best argument for watching archives and not the live stream. But I’ll watch anyway!

#6: Continue not playing MTGO

I kicked the habit several years ago and I’m not going to get drawn back in until the program is worth my time. Is it a condemnation of MTGO or praise of SCGLive that I’d so much rather watch the stream than play online?

#7: Get that foil foreign Akroma, and WB Scrubland & Badlands

My Kaalia of the Vast Commander deck has a lot of foreign foil Angels. I’ve got foil Japanese Avacyn, foil French Angel of Despair, foil Italian Kokusho, the Evening Star, and so on. There’s a foil German Akroma, Angel of Wrath that I’ve had my eye on for a while and I really want it! So I’m resolving to buy it this year. Or just upgrade my Portuguese into a foil Portuguese.

On a similar note, I traded for a white-bordered German Plateau for the same deck, and now I need a Badlands and a Scrubland to match. Sure, this is a lofty goal, needing such a specific edition when I already have duals, but everyone needs a goal to aspire to!

#8: Use eBay more

I have had excellent luck in the past, buying single on eBay and then trading them for full retail value, when I picked the card up for significantly less. In this way, I turned one spare Plateau into a Verdant Catacombs and a pair of Cavern of Souls. Buying cards that are expressly for your trade binder is an excellent way to infuse value into your binder, as long as you are upfront about the premium for trading Legacy cards to get Standard cards.

Put another way: I buy a Vindicate on eBay for $12 + $2 shipping. I would feel comfortable asking for a pair of Bloodstained Mire and a Siege Rhino for it. Thus I’ve added $27 in value to my binder for about half that in cash. Winner!

And oh goodness…Vindicate in French is ‘Justification’…I might have a new resolution!

 

Casual Fridays

Naughty or Nice

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By: Cliff Daigle

It might be an over-used trope, but since this is the day after a major holiday, I thought I’d present my year in review, of the good and the bad.

Naughty : Everything MTGO

Sad but true that this should be a flagship. Duels of the Planeswalkers, as a watered-down version of Magic, is a lot of fun to play! Imagine you’re a new player, you’re good enough at Duels and you’re ready for ‘the real thing’ only to find out that it’s buggy, slow, non-intuitive, and ugly.

It’s been this way for quite some time, which is the worst part. I’ll give you that it is more stable than when I played in the long-ago days of Lorwyn and Shadowmoor, but there’s still a legion of other things that need to be addressed. The problem is not with the game: We have several years of consecutive, record-breaking growth. The online version should be able to offer the gameplay and strategy elements of the game, while in-person play adds a social context.

Nice: End of Core Sets

I could not be happier about this change. It’s true that the summer sets offered a change of pace (notably, M14’s focus on Opportunity after the blistering speed of RTR and Gatecrash) but there was a sacrifice of story and a loss of continuity.

Core Sets did offer the chance to return to some fun mechanics (Bloodthirst, Convoke, etc.) but that’s a goal that will be easier to accomplish in an independent world. I’m not worried about the frequency of reprints.

Naughty: Born of the Gods

It didn’t add much and took a lot away. It offered some interesting and fun cards, but it was just not the right fit for anything. Inspired turned out to be difficult to use and not often worth the payoff. Tribute gave your opponent all the power, and let them choose what they could deal with. Luckily, Wizards recognizes this issue and won’t have to deal with three-set blocks anymore.

Nice: Reprints Aplenty

We are in an era where only the Reserved List is safe. Putting the Onslaught fetches into a big fall set was an awesome move, making those lands Modern-legal AND knocking those prices down into easier realms.

The effect on Zendikar lands is noticeable too: We’re not asking “Will they?” but instead “When will they?” reprint these lands. This is going to be their policy going forward, especially with regard to lands. If you are expecting your Tarmogoyfs to hold their $200 tag, I don’t think that will be the case forever. Wizards will continue to judiciously reprint cards, especially Modern-legal ones.

I have enjoyed the effect of a Core Set reprint on Commander cards, especially Chord of Calling and Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth. Conspiracy, Commander, Duel Decks, PTQ-only foils, new judge foils…we’ve got a lot of ways to get extra copies of a card into circulation.

Wizards now has two cases of reprint-only sets: Chronicles and Modern Masters 1. By modern standards, Chronicles had a tiny print run and the cards looked noticeably different than their originals. If that happened today, I don’t think the reprinted cards would take much of a hit, especially with white borders!

Naughty: Cheaters

Jared Boettcher. Trevor Humphries. Alex Bertoncini.

Three very successful players. One Rookie of the Year. One winner of more than $20,000 in the past year. One ‘rehabilitated’ cheater. All banned for at least three years for having the gall to cheat on camera.

Lots of words have been written about the awful effect a cheater can have on a game, but this bears repeating: You have to have enormous confidence in your trick to try it on camera. Professional magicians can get caught by slo-mo cameras. Your minor-league shuffling trick will get caught.

Nice: Getting them!

As a community, there’s issues we have to deal with, and our response can be lacking. Luckily, cheating is a very galvanizing topic, and with high-definition footage available on YouTube, it can be parsed into frame-by-frame GIF files for endless scrutinization.

We did good, by noticing it, reporting it, and letting the DCI take care of things. We will also be on the lookout for anyone who shuffles our deck differently from how they shuffle their own. It sucks that we have to, but these cheaters only got to be on camera by winning lots of not-on-camera matches.

Naughty: the prize wall with Cascade Games

This was a feature of GP Los Angeles and apparently will be present at every Cascade Games event, including the upcoming GP Vegas for Modern Masters 2015. I don’t mind having something to work for, a chance to accumulate prize points and redeem them for sweet Magic things or just a ton of packs.

My issue is putting side drafts at a GP up to $20. Sure, it’s nice to get 3rd or 4th and have 50 tickets which can get you five packs of Khans, but at $20 you’re going to be drafting less. Offering these drafts for $20 or the simple drafts for $10 is a way to let us decide how much to spend.

Nice: SCG’s $10 drafts

Star City Games may have high prices on singles, but this is my favorite part of an Open coming to town. I can draft and draft and draft, and focus on getting better at the format. After a few drafts in a row this way, you’ll have mastery of the combat tricks at least, and likely many of the archetypes.

Plus, drafts at $10 is less than MSRP for packs, and that always gets me happy. It’s not Buy-One-Get-One good but it’s still something to be a bit thankful for.

Naughty: $10 MM 2015!

Good grief, $10 per pack? Is this just a straight-up cash grab from Wizards? What could they do to these packs to justify it? Guaranteed foils were worth $7. Are we getting double rares? I don’t think we’ll get much more, but the card choice will likely determine the worth involved.

My favorite piece of speculation is that there will be a foil token in every pack!

Nice: Worldwide Distribution of MM 2015

There will be three Grands Prix held at the same time, all the same format: Modern Masters 2015 Sealed Deck. This is unprecedented, and is done to show the demand for the format. Hopefully, a larger distribution means that I’ll get to do more than the one MM draft I did last time.

There will be three languages available as well, a change from last time and adding another chance to make your Commander deck that next level of unique.

Join me next week as I make some resolutions for the new year!