By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

After an exciting weekend that featured a fantastic mix of old and new decks and some high drama around the Player of the Year race, we have crowned Mono-Red Aggro at the top of yet another major 2015 Magic tournament, this time in the hands of the cool and collected Joel Larsson.

Despite finishing 2nd, Owen Turtenwald’s “best player in the world” Mike Sigrist rockets to the top of the Player of the Year race on the back of his GP win earlier in the season and his excellent finish this weekend. The last minute shift represented a bittersweet end of season for Eric Froelich, aka EFro, who has hoped to punctuate his election to the Magic Hall of Fame with a Player of the Year title he held the lead on for weeks.

To recap, our Top 8 included the following decks:

1. Abzan Control (Kentaro Yamamato)
2. Red w/ Chandra (Steven Neal)
3. Red Aggro (Pat Cox)
4. U/R Thopters (Stephan Barrios)
5. G/R Devotion (Paul Jackson)
6. Abzan Control (Matt Sperling)
7. Red Aggro (Joel Larsson)
8. U/R Thopters (Mike Sigrist)

In the quarters, Sigirst took out the Yamamato piloted Abzan Control deck that has been showing up at top tables for months, amply demonstrating that Thopters are pushing hard into Tier 1. Australian Paul Jackson was able to take out one of the other U/R Thopter decks with his familiar G/R Devotion deck. Pat Cox was eliminated from the brackets by Matt Sperling, with Abzan Control surviving a commonly close call against Red Aggro. Joel Larsson also triumphed in a mirror match against Stephen Neal.

In the semis, Sigrist took out G/R Devotion, while Larsson dispatched the last of the Abzan decks, knocking out Sperling.

Finally, Larsson’s Red Aggro build took down the U/R Thopters deck after an anti-climatic 5-game set, when Sigrist was forced to mulligan down to 3 in the final game.

With the final Pro Tour stop in the bag, we now look ahead to a couple of months of full power Standard before the big shakeup of Battle for Zendikar knocking the entire Theros block out of Standard in early October.

With our eyes on the metagame for the rest of the summer, let’s take a look at the notable cards of the weekend:

If last week was the coming out party for the self-multiplying robot crew, this week has cemented its’ position in the metagame. Found as a 4-of in both of the U/R Thopter decks that made Top 8, including the Sigrist deck that finished 2nd, the only question left is whether this card could also find a home in Modern Affinity or some other sweeper resistant value build. For now it’s enough that the card has peaked around $15, a level that will only be sustainable if the home archetypes continue to do well. If you picked them up under $10, I think you can safely get out now with pride, but there is still a chance that this is our new Rabblemaster with a potential $25 price tag.

 

Abbot showed up as a 4-of in many of the red decks that made up one of the largest archetype contingents of the weekend. It also easily demonstrated that a 2-power 2-drop with Prowess and additional upside is still as good now as when Seeker of the Way was cutting up opponents earlier this season. The card has peaked over 250% on the weekend to around $8, up from $3. Typically it’s tough for a rare from a summer set to hold over $5, so you can likely feel relatively safe trading on hype early this week if you have extras lying around. On the other hand, if the card manages to make an appearance in Modern later this year, then foils under $25 will start to look pretty attractive. I’ve certainly got a few foil sets stashed away on this premise, but conquering the power curve of Modern may prove too ambitious for this little beater.

The other red rare from Origins to get played as a 4-of this weekend, was this versatile answer to everything from creatures to life totals to counterspells. It’s the kind of card that’s rarely exciting, but usually good and likely to hold at least $3-4 so long as Red Aggro stays Tier 1. That being said, this card has few applications out of Standard and that makes me happy to be trading these out at the current $5-6 value heading towards FNM this week.

Having appeared in a ton of GR decks this weekend, with 5 copies appearing  in the Top 8, and another 3 being played in Brian Kibler’s 8-1 G/W Mid-Range deck, Nissa has managed to gain $5, from $25 to $30 on the weekend. Like Jace, this latest incarnation of the Zendikarian mage has strong potential to push $40 if she can help win a major tournament in the coming weeks, but most of benefit from having pre-ordered her under $20 is likely already baked in. If you’re holding extras you can feel free to unload into profitable trades, perhaps by targeting some underpriced modern staples from MM2. Otherwise, hold onto your playset as Nissa is likely to be a viable staple for most of her time in Standard.

Despite zero copies appearing in the Top 8, Demonic Pact decks pushed very deep into the tournament and spent a lot of time on camera. Perhaps even more exciting is the fact that multiple color combinations, from Abzan, to Sultai and G/B, all seem to be viable builds, alluding to the possibility of deeper demand for this dangerous mythic rare. With all that going on, the card has spiked (pushed at least partially by one or more targeted buyouts) from $5 up to $13 and back down to $8-9 after it failed to Top 8. Though I’m not super excited to pick these up at this level, I am more interested in the MTGO versions around 2.50 this evening. I’ll also be keeping an eye out to get back in around $5-6 if post-tourney deflation opens back up the door on solid future profits should the card manage to take down a big event later this season.

He didn’t Top 8, but he was solid all weekend and you better believe the naysayers are going to be quieter moving forward. Fitting into decks from Jeskai Tempo to Demonic Pact and UB Control, this multi-faceted planeswalker continues to defy expectations via explosive turns where it provides multiple plays. The price being over $30 means it’s an almost certain sell position for extra copies, but continued success at high levels should keep it in the top tier of Standard card prices.

After a dominant spring as a driving force behind the Esper Dragons decks, the U/W Dragonlord with the bulletproof behind was largely off the radar this weekend. At $15 or so, I’m looking for the card to drop a bit further towards $10 before picking some up on the hopes of renewed success sometime during the ’15-16 Standard seasons. Our own Guo Heng Chin however thinks the card is a solid pickup even at the current prices. Reinforcing this position is the fact that an Esper Dragons deck actually went 8-1-1 in the hands of Robin Dolar. Had Dolar done better in his drafts, perhaps we would have seen Ojutai in the Top 8 again so best not count him out quite yet.

Thanks so much for following along with us this weekend. We’ll see you next time for Pro Tour: BFZ in October!

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Day 2 Set-Up

Pro Tour Origins has thus far been just as compelling as we had hoped, with an array of interesting new decks on display alongside some updated staples and some very, very clever high level play. Here’s our coverage of Day 1 so you can get caught up.

The metagame on Day 1 in Standard has advanced the possibilities for new and renewed strategies including Red/Green Devotion, Red/Blue Thopters, Abzan, Sultai and Blue/Black Control and various flavors of decks built around Rally the Ancestors.  And though the field has been diverse, with no one deck making up more than 15% of the metagame, the deck to beat all weekend has looked like Red Aggro, which has defined the durdle clock across the board and punished many a player getting too fancy.

So far in paper, the card spikes have been relatively mellow, with Hangarback Walker jumping another $2 from $10 to $12 overnight on speculation that it could become the rare rare card that breaks out above the $10 ceiling and heads for $20. Demonic Pact has also gained $1 or so, from $5 to $6, but will likely need some serious camera time today or an eventual Top 8 to get into the $10+ mythic rare club. Abbot of Keral Keep has also show some growth and could hit $5-6 from $3 if one of the decks running it does well on camera today. Thopter Spy Network and Exquisite Firecraft have also shown a bit of movement but are unlikely to pop without a demonstration of dominance heading into our Top 8.

Now after an additional 3 rounds of ORI-ORI-ORI draft, the stage is set for 5 more rounds of Standard to figure out our Top 8 players and decks.

4:28: Randy Beuhler calls out the UR decks as the best deck of the weekend.

4:32: Herald of the Pantheon and Sphinx’s Tutelage called out as Honorable Mentions for card of the weekend.

Round 12 (6th Rnd of Std)

Antonio Del Moral Leon (GB Demonic Pact) vs Raphael Levy (RG Devotion)

4:40pm: Demonic Pact back on camera with the G/B Leon deck.

5:02pm: King of the hill Gottleib has Rally Decks back in the spotlight along with Lilianna, Heretical Healer.

5:17pm: Levy puts See the Unwritten on the map in Standard. Could Battle for Zendikar give it more gas?

5:36pm: GW Constellation on Deck Tech with Kyle Boggemes.

5:50pm: Sam Black runs out Abbot of Keral  Keep facing Green-Red Devotion but Gerry T manages to put it away in 3.

7:34pm: Deck Tech: Blue/Red Tutelage

• 4x Magmatic Insight
• 4x Tormenting Voice
• 4x Jace, Vrynn’s Prodigy
• 1x Alhammarret’s Archive
• 4x Sphinx’s Tutelage
• 2x Dictate of Kruphix
• 1x Dig Through Time
• 4x Treasure Cruise
• 2x Send to Sleep
• 4x Anger of the Gods
• 1x Roast
• 2x Whelming Wave

7:42pm: Some notable increases and decreases on MTGO overnight include:

• Eidolon of the Great Revel +16% to 16.07
• Woodland Bellower +30% to 4.16
• Zurgo Bellstriker +54% to 2.07
• Yavimaya Coast +100% to .92

Eidolon and Zurgo are up on the fact that Red Aggro has been showing up at top tables all weekend and looks well positioned to hold Tier 1 status in this latest phase of Theros/KTK/Origins Standard heading into the fall. A big win this weekend could push the relevant cards even higher, if mostly online.

Woodland Bellower is climbing on the appearance of the G/B Demonic Pact deck.

• Nissa, Vastwood Seer -17% to 14.39
• Hangarback Walker -25% to 9.04
• Thopter Spy Network -35% to 3.49
• Pyromancer’s Goggles -37% to 2.52
• Pia and Kiran Nalaar -50% to 1.10

Nissa hasn’t shown up as an important 4-of anywhere, and her price has fallen as a result. Hangarback Walker/Thopter Spy Network decks haven’t pushed deep into Day 2 for the most part, allowing these cards to slide back a chunk. The Goggles decks that were kicking around also haven’t driven home, and the key card is also sliding as a result.

8:10pm: Round 15 (9th Round of Standard)

Rich Hoaen (Red Aggro) vs. Matt Sperling (Abzan Control)

Sperling takes Game 1 having stabilized at 16 life, and tries to fend off the red advance in Game 2 only to go down to a top decked Stoke the Flames when sitting at 3. Sperling pulls out the third game to make Top 8.

Pat Cox makes Top 8 off-camera. One of the U/R Artifacts players also just made Top 8, which could bode well for Hangarback Walker.

Takehiro Fujimoto is playing Paul Jackson in the feature area, with Fujimoto on a more goblin-centric version of red against the Jackson GR Devotion build. Jackson knocks Goblins out of Top 8 contention.

Local boy Daniel Fournier on the last Deck Tech of the day. Toronto Hype!

Deck Tech: Sultai Pact (Daniel Fournier)

• 4x Jace, Vrynn’s Prodigy
• 3x Languish
• 4x Demonic Pact
• 1x Nissa, Vastwood Seer
• 3x Satyr Wayfinder
• 2x Tasigur, The Golden Fang
• 3x Den Protector
• 1x Dig Through Time
• 1x Ugin, The Spirit Dragon
• 1x Murderous Cut
• 2x Silumgar’s Command
• 3x Thoughtseize
• 2x Sultai Charm
• 3x Hero’s Downfall
• 3x Disperse

Note: Demonic Pact has now jumped over $10 on constant coverage exposure and at least one deck in the Top 16.

Round 16 (Last Round of Standard)

Bryan Gottlieb (Abzan Rally) vs. Mike Sigrist (Blue/Red Thopters)

Game 1: Sigrist leverages early flying attacks over top of Deathmist Raptor and finishes up the game with a Shrapnel Blast.

Game 2:  Gottlieb ties it up after some solid value plays.

Valentin Mackl (Jeskai Tempo) vs. Joel Larsson (Red Aggro)

Game 1: Larsson takes the first game after a flurry of moves and countermoves.

Our Top 8 is confirmed to include the following decks so far:

1. Abzan Control (Kentaro Yamamato)
2. Red w/ Chandra (Steven Neal)
3. Red Aggro (Pat Cox)
4. U/R Thopters (Stephan Barrios)
5. G/R Devotion (Paul Jackson)
6. Abzan Control (Matt Sperling)
7. Red Aggro (Joel Larsson)
8. U/R Thopters (Mike Sigrist)

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Here we are. Following hot on the heels of a successful launch for Magic: The Gathering Origins here we are at the doorstep of another epic battle between top Magic: The Gathering pros from across the globe. Over $250,000 USD is on the line, with the winner taking home a hefty $40,000 after three days of intense competition in Vancouver, Canada.

As per usual, the Pro Tour weekends now feature a mix of booster draft (ORI-ORI-ORI) and constructed formats with 3 rounds of draft Friday morning, followed by 5 rounds of Standard starting around 4-5pm EST.

For the MTG Finance community, the big question on all of our minds is whether any new cards from Origins will break into the spotlight in Standard and push our recent specs into profitability. Will there be a chance to get in on something that shows early promise or will the hype train leave the bandwagon speculators out in the cold without buyers come Monday morning?

Many of the top teams have been in stealth mode for the last couple of weeks, furtively holed up BC cabins and AirBnB pads attempting to break a format open that has stubbornly refused to allow a single deck to dominate for the duration of an amazingly varied season.

Round 4 (1st Round of Constructed)

Shehar Shenhar (Jeskai Tempo) vs.  Makihito Mihara ( 5-Color Rally)

Game 1: Mihara gets stuck with 3 Rally the Ancestors in hand, without creatures in the graveyard. Unable to get his combo pattern going, Mihara moves on to Game 2.

Game 2: Shahar manages to answer the early threats from Mihara, clearing Jace, Husk and Whisperwood with burn and a Valorous Stance. Randy Buehler calls out that Rally decks make up less than 15% of the field, suggesting that the pros found better options in testing. Without a combo move in Game 2, Shahar manages to take out Mihara with burn to the face.

Scott Lipp (U/R Ensoul Artifact) vs.  Seth Manfield (G/R Devotion)

Game 1: Scott Lipp is on a U/R Thopter/Ensoul Artifact deck. Already seeing Hangarback Walkers start to dry up on Ebay.  He takes down Seth Manfield in Game 1 from 7 with a Shrapnel Blast and some Thopter attacks in the air.

Game 2:  Several turns in Lipp has Manfield on the ropes, with thopters in play and Manfield’s life total at 6 to Lipp’s 21. Manfield makes a smart play, leaving up a potential double Polukranos activation to ensure he can soak up an attack step and take out some flying robots. The very next turn however, Lipp top decks an Ensoul Artifact, drops it on an Ornithopter and hits Manfield with a Shrapnel Blast to take the match.

Randy notes that G/R decks make up the biggest portion of the field at around 15%.

Deck Tech #1: Adrian Sullivan (Blue/Black Control)

Sullivan outlines his updated U/B control deck with BDM:

• 3x Ashiok
• 1x Ugin
• 1x Lilianna Vess
• 2x Jace’s Ingenuity
• 3x Dig Through Time
• 1x Dragonlord’s Prerogative
• 4x Dissolve
• 1x Clash of Wills
• 2x Bile Blight
• 1x Silence the Believers
• 2x Ultimate Price
• 4x Hero’s Downfall
• 3x Perilous Vault
• 1x Drown in Sorrow
• 1x Languish
• 1x Crux of Fate
• 1x Aethspouts

Sullivan notes that Languish pushed people off creatures that would make it good, so he chose to run a more diverse sweeper package. He goes on to explain that he isn’t running any creatures, due to the available options being weak to the field.

Round 5 (2nd Round of Standard)

Here are the feature match decks for Round 5:

• U/R Control vs. Jeskai Tempo
• 4-Color Rally vs. U/B Control (Wafo-Tapo)
• U/R Ensoul Artifact vs. Jeskai Ascendancy Combo
• Red Aggro (Sam Black) vs. Abzan Rally (Zvi)

Zvi Mowshowitz (Abzan Rally) vs.  Same Black (Red Aggro)

The players split the first two games to set up a tie-breaker.

Scott Lipp takes down the Jeskai Ascendancy deck with his U/R deck to go to 5-0.

Deck Tech #2: Blue/Red Thopters (Raymond Perez)

Thoptor Engineer and Whirler Rogue seeing Standard play!

Round 6 (Standard Round 3)

Lee Shi Tian 4-1 (Red Aggro) vs. Nicolai Herzog 4-1 (Red Aggro)

A lot of the better known teams are on mono red, many using Abbot of Keral Keep.

Game 1: Lee Shi Tian takes down Herzog in Game 1 with a flurry of carefully timed fire spells. Dragon Whisperer and Flamewake Phoenix on camera.

Paul Rietzl (Reg Aggro) vs. Christian Calcano (Sultai Control)

Game 1: Rietzl uses Zurgo Bellsmasher and Eidolon and Swiftspear to get in for strong early damage pushing Calcano down to 1 life and then quickly puts him out of his misery.

Game 2: In Game 2 Calcano manages to survive an early onslaught with the tactical use of Drown in Sorrow and Tasigur. He then manages to get a flipped Jace, Vrynn’s Prodigy in play. Double Feed the Clan gain Calcano 20 life and makes it highly unlikely that Reitzl will be able to take back control of the game. With Reitzl run out of cards, a Den Protector goes the distance with a bit of removal clearing the way.

Game 3: After some early trades Reitzl manages to resolve an Outpost Siege on Khans, ensuring some key card advantage heading into the late game.  Again, Calcano manages to gain 20 life off a pair of Feed the Clan, demonstrating the value of a solid sideboard plan against the red decks this weekend. A turn later, he draws yet another one, setting up to gain 30 post-sideboard. Reitzl however, manages to get another Outpost Siege in play, and sets himself up for 3 cards per turn to keep in the race. With Paul at 4, Calcano puts it away by eliminating a Heelcutter with a Downfall to ensure his Den Protector could get in for the win.

Off-camera Shehar Shenhar goes to 6-0 takes the top seed in the tournament with his Jeskai Mid-Range deck.

Round 7 (4th Round of Standard)

 

Mike Flores (Red Aggro) vs. Ivan Floch (5 Color Rally)

Game 1: Floch takes Game 1 after maneuvering out from under a deluge of damage.

Game 2: Flores is able to put Game 2 away on the back of early beats and a pair of well time burn spells.

Game 3: Floch pulls the deciding game out of the jaws of defeat, having drawn timely Reclamation Sages to deal with multiple Eidolon of the Great Revel.

Round 8 (5th/Final Round of Standard)

Joel Larsson (Red Aggro) vs. Shaun McClaren (Abzan Rally)

Our final round of the day finds us examining a seminal matchup in the current metagame, with the explosive closing power of the red aggro deck up against the attrition focused value deck with the combo end game.

Game 1: This game was swingy, with a noteable Abbot of Keral Keep getting used for maximum value into a Lightning Strike setting up a tight win.

Game 2: In Game 2 Larsson was unable to find early action after a mulligan and McClaren took him to town with multiple combo shots on the back of Rally the Ancestors. The Rally decks are looking solid heading into Day 2.

Game 3: Larsson’s risky keep with a low land count paid off in the final game as he was able to play out on curve and put Shaun away before he could really get anything going with his slow play combo deck. Larsson takes the game and match, and puts red aggro back on the map as the deck to beat heading into Day 2.

Pre-Game Top 8 Contenders

Perhaps a dozen decks are in play for possible dominance this weekend including all of the following to greater or lesser degrees:

• 5-Color Rally
• G/R Ramp
• U/B or U/W Thopter or Dragon Control
• U/R Thopters
• Various Flavors of Bant Heroic
• Mono-Red Aggro
• Abzan Aggro
• Abzan Control
• Jeskai Jace
• Starfield Constellation

With all of the testing this week there’s also the distinct possibility that this weekend will mark the debut of a sweet new brew. With Standard starting around early Friday morning EST, the stage is set for first mover advantage if an unexpected deck jumps out to an early lead in the hands of a reliable pilot. Which deck are you rooting for?

Cards to Watch

Rally the Ancestors: Ready to Repeat?

The 5-color Rally deck came out of nowhere at lesser tournaments over the last couple of weeks to establish itself as a solid Tier 1 strategy in the waning days of Theros/Khans block Standard. The deck functions as a value deck in the early turns, only to go off explosively by recurring a bunch of value creatures onto the battlefield to draw cards, kill creatures and set up huge attacks. The card at the core of the deck has already exploded from a bulk $.30 rare to a $3 mover, but it’s definitely possible that a deep run this weekend could set the card up to challenge $10.

Hangarback Walker: Best Bet to Explode?

Totally ignored when spoiled, play testing quickly showed that the Walker had the potential to fulfill a vital role in a format with infinite creature kill. Much as Voice of Resurgence did in it’s heyday, the ‘Walker sets up a situation where your opponent is forced to endure card disadvantage just to start dealing with it. The ability to shrug off sweepers, provide blockers to defend your Planeswalkers, and provide threats to go after Ugin all add up to a very solid card that has already spiked up into the $10 ceiling for new site rares. The question then, is whether Hangarback Walker can dominate PT Origins and set the stage to become the next Goblin Rabblemaster, pushing up past the $20 plateau so rarely achieved by standard rares.

Jace, Vrin’s Prodigy: Best of the ‘Walkers?

  

Originally available at a much-maligned $15-18 on pre-order, teen angst Jace is just the latest in a long line of underestimated staples this year that had to get played to be believed. Now holding a $30 price tag, a top 8 appearance or some serious camera time could be all this card needs to push up to the $40 ceiling for new set mythics. As a looter with long-term upside, Jace loves to set up shop behind some blockers and buy time to start re-buying powerful spells out of the graveyard. As an easily splashable card that is often played as a 4-of, we can expect Jace to show up in everything from 5-color Rally, and U/B Demonic Pack builds to Jeskai Tempo decks. There may not be a lot of upside left, but if you think you may need a play set, I wouldn’t hesitate at this point.

Nissa, Vastwood Seer: Role Player or Pillar of the Format?

  

Like Jace, Nissa was hotly debated once announced. Early feedback on this card has confirmed that it is a reliably solid play to be making in the early to mid-game, which often also has the potential to dominate the late game. That being said, most decks running the card are only running a couple of copies, and it seems to be largely limited to the ramp camp for the time being. Currently sitting around $25, there may be the potential to make $20-$25 on a set if the card spikes off heavy play this weekend.

Dragonlord Ojutai: Time to Flee?

Ojutai occupied the underrated powerhouse slot at the last Pro Tour, enjoying a powerful spike into the $40 range on the back of heavy play. With the shift in the metagame driven by MTG Origins cards however, the Dragon Control strategies have been taking a back seat to other archetypes and the presence of Languish and Rally deck sacrifice effects doesn’t help much either. Dragonlord Ojutai is currently hanging out around $20, but I’d be looking to get out now for fear that the card may find a fresh floor closer to $10 on low play.

Demonic Pact: Time to Shine?

Demonic Pact has been disparaged for being too durdly, but rumors abound that select pros are on various versions of decks that make good use of the card in Abzan or U/B control shells. The blue decks can bounce it to reuse and the W/G decks can Dromoka’s Command for value, and as a mythic around $5, the conditions are right for a spike if it makes it on camera and ends up in the Top 8. A reasonable target of $10-15 would be the likely result.

Stay tuned for Round by Round MTGFinance coverage of Pro Tour Magic Origins all weekend!

 

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.