Category Archives: Casual Fridays

Casual Fridays

Go! Get (out of) The Copter!

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I don’t care if you’re tired of Smuggler’s Copter jokes. It needs to be done and I have to give a terrible apology if you hear the title in an Ahnuld accent.

So we missed the boat on the Copter. It’s $18 for an in-print Standard rare at week one, and while I know that the price is going to go down, how far can it go?

The answer is, pretty far. I want to examine some rares, not mythics, to see how far we can expect the Copter to fall.

Let’s start with Shadows over Innistrad, and look for commonly played rares. We aren’t going to look at Eldritch Moon, since that’s a small set and I want to compare apples to apples.

titi

One of the first rares to burst onto the scene, and one whose preorder price kept climbing upward, was Thing in the Ice. Since this has come out, it’s seen some play but not a lot, rarely being the centerpiece of a deck.

Yes, it was above $15 at one point at the beginning! The lack of play lowered the price, and then there was a time not too long ago where Blue-Red Thermo-Thing was popular, and that is why the buylist price bumped up a little.

But yikes. Fifteen bucks down to five, that’s a big loss…though the card isn’t terribly popular.

Let’s look at something that often got played alongside Copter: Declaration in Stone.

declaration

Two mana, exile a creature, and there are drawbacks in the form of Clues. Cheap, efficient, and powerful, and played a lot, though not as much as the Copter.

Even so, it’s gone from a high of $17 down to its current plateau of $4. It’s got Kaladesh and three more sets before it’s out of Standard, so there’s room for it to fall more or perhaps to creep upward. As a rare, there are a whole ton of these out there and that’s why the price has fallen has far as this. Removal this good should hold a price, and it’s actually not the usual thing for a rare to hold a price above that of a booster pack.

Shadows over Innistrad has three: Thing in the Ice, Declaration in Stone, and Tireless Tracker.

Maybe what we should also do is look at Battle for Zendikar, because that has Expeditions to goose people to buy more packs. The data doesn’t lie, either: it’s very difficult for rares to keep value. From Battle for Zendikar, the only rares over $3 are lands: Cinder Glade, Prairie Stream, and Shambling Vent.

My point is that the price on the Copter, and a lot of other rares, are about to start dropping as Kaladesh gets opened in earnest. There’s a big Limited Grand Prix this weekend, and that’s going to be a huge injection of supply into the market.

If you’re hellbent on playing Standard this weekend or next, you can go ahead and buy your playset for $70 or so, and play it for quite a while. It’s possible–possible!–that the Pro Tour next weekend spikes it even farther, but I can’t even remember the last $20 rare we had in Standard.

It’s going to be fascinating to watch.

Think of it like Aether Hub. Sure, it’s a four-of all over the place, and it’s a good card, but people, it is an uncommon. An in-print uncommon has an eBay price of $9-$10 a playset!

This first weekend of prices is crazy. The play is heavily to sell. SELL. You can buylist the Copter, a rare, for $9. You can get $10 for Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, and that’s a four-of mythic.

I’m trying very hard to bring up all the evidence that I can to convince you that if you’re buying a Copter right now, it’s to play it for the next 18 months. Please don’t buy it now, hoping it goes up more. Don’t chase the tail end of this. Wait. Be patient. The prices will drop, and you’ll lose money if you buy now and hope to sell the Saturday of the PT.

Casual Fridays, Uncategorized

Expeditions Begetting Inventions

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So I have to say that the Invention series is gorgeous. I am entranced by all of them and I want to pick up all of them. Mostly. I don’t have a use for the mana accelerants, but they are all beautiful and shiny and really appeal to the showing-off aspect of playing Commander.

I have many direct wants for different decks when it comes to Inventions, and I know that right now is not the time for buying Inventions. Supply is too low, demand is sky-high. They are getting opened in droves, which means volatility in prices.

What I want to do today is look back at the Expeditions and see if there are price trends that I should be paying attention to. I wrote a year ago about what to do if you opened an Expedition, and while the principles still apply, I want to focus on the Expeditions and how they relate to what I think will happen in the end with Inventions.

Let’s look at one of the high-end Expeditions: Scalding Tarn.

tarn

So it started CRAZY high, at $450 when this was first introduced, but it swung down to nearly $200 and then back over three, which is about where it’s settled in now.

This graph makes a lot of sense. We didn’t know how many of these there would be, and we didn’t know what the pricing would be. As the numbers came out (more copies than expected) the price dropped, but recovered well. Most importantly, it’s been relatively stable for this year, and that’s what I want to know.

How about a mid-level Expedition? Here’s Steam Vents:

vents

This is an interesting graph as well. We have the same fluctuation at first, but there is a distinct downward trend. It’s a slow trend, but it’s there, with the drop in buylist pricing is there in July for almost all of the Expeditions, even if the price is creeping upwards.

How about the low-end ones? Cinder Glade:

glade

These are also trending slowly downwards, and that’s important to note with the Gearhulks and whatever the newer Inventions will be. When Aether Revolt lands, I will look at those Inventions alongside the Oath of the Gatewatch Expeditions.

So in general, these have trended downwards slightly. That’s super important to keep in mind going forward, indicating that patience is my keyword when it comes to the Inventions I want.

It’s not universal, though. For one, Overgrown Tomb has gone up, perhaps matching the recent rise of Abzan decks in Modern. Not every Expedition has followed the same track, and it’s worth noting that there were no first-time foils in the Expeditions, where we have our first foil Mana Vault.

Other writers have noted that the presence of Inventions will lower the price of every other card in the set, and that looks true for Battle of Zendikar. Prices for that set are extremely low, even considering that the set only has six months to rotation. In general, I expect all prices to drop over time, but what I want to know, and what only time will tell me, is how patience will pay off for the Inventions as well as the Expeditions.

Full disclosure: I’ve put a couple of Inventions on my Puca want list, with a bonus of 15%, and I am confident that I’m going to get at least one of the ones I want. I know that a lot of people are down on PucaTrade at this point, so I want to be clear that I still have points and I still have faith.

Casual Fridays

Last-minute Pickups from Origins and DTK

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Well, we are at the end of the old blocks. Dragons of Tarkir and Magic Origins are rotating out in two weeks, the brewing with Kaladesh has all our attention, and there’s a prerelease to go play in! I love this time of year.

I especially love the rotation time, because this is when I want to invest the most and get the most for my money.

I’m looking for cards seeing fringe play in Modern and Legacy, I want to have some cool foils, and I want to check for underpriced but powerful Commander cards. I am keenly aware that the Masterpiece series means even more reprints, on top of extra sets, theme decks, and all of the ways that Wizards has to add to the supply of a card. It’s possible the old ways are no good, but they can’t reprint it all! Diversify with me.

For the most part, I expect these to grow slowly over time, with the potential to spike hard.

Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy – $24 regular/$65 foil/$190 SDCC promo – This sees a significant amount of play in Modern and Legacy, and I know lots of people are noticing how low this price has gone. It’s true that there is a black SDCC promo version, and that puts a ceiling on how high the foils can go, but picking up these in nonfoil is perfectly fine, as it’s due to do something amazing again. It will not take much to spike in either Eternal format.

Alhammarret’s Archive – $4/$11 – One of the best casual cards around, and a leading candidate for a reprint. In Commander, this is busted right in half, and will rightfully get you targeted by the rest of the table.

Starfield of Nyx – $2.50/$7 – So I would love this card, and I would marry it, and I would build a house out of these cards, except…there’s going to be a Masterpiece series of enchantments and it seems like this is easy-peasy one of the best enchantment enablers. It’s Opalescence plus reanimation all in one card.

Sphinx’s Tutelage – $1.50/$5 – Mill cards always have life. This has seen the smallest sprinkle of Standard play, but this is a pick for the unseen masses. It’s easy to reprint, but really, it’s just an awesome card. It takes something we all love doing and turns it into a weapon. I’ve seen this card just chainsaw through Commander players, a sign that not enough of us play Gaea’s Blessing or other such cards.

Collected Company -$11/$33 – If you think this is due to get banned, stay away. I think that it will not get banned in Modern, and for a card that’s an automatic four-of in some incredibly powerful strategies, a rare from a big set that was only opened in a small set…it’s very tempting. There are Clash Pack copies that are keeping the supply greater, but this is a format-warping card that must be respected.

Narset Transcendent – $7/$21 – She’s not down to the $5 threshold that I usually look for in underpriced planeswalkers, but her price is surprisingly high for a card seeing so little organized play. She can’t protect herself, but that isn’t quite as relevant for casual formats. I like having this card, and the trajectory is due to start climbing upward.

Sarkhan Unbroken – $4/$13 – I think this is cheaper than Narset because he’s three colors. He’s more powerful on his own, but he can’t doublecast spells the way Narset can, and his ultimate requires some sweet dragons to tutor up. That Dragon emphasis is what intrigues me, though, especially at a measly $4.

Kolaghan’s Command – $6/$21 – This is a pretty amazing card in Modern and Legacy, and the nonfoil has already spiked to $20 once in its career. I’m in, and I will feel vindicated when it breaks $10. When it’s over $15 again, I’ll take myself out to dinner.

Sidisi, Undead Vizier – $2.50/$7.50 – I like having copies of this around, not because Jund decks in Modern are about to abuse it, but because it’s a really amazing Zombie. Angels, Dragons, Elves, Goblins, and Zombies are likely the top 5 tribes, and the appeal cannot be overstated.

Foil Impact Tremors – $2 – It’s only half of Purphoros, God of the Forge, but if you want this type of effect in your Commander deck, you want redundant cards. I wasn’t expecting this foil to be this high a multiplier, but that’s a sign of the casual appeal. When I notice that, I want to have some of these in stock.

Casual Fridays

Rares of Kaladesh

Didn’t we just do this? We just had a new set, right? It feels like this has been a lightning-speed summer, with set after set after set. We also have the news about the Masterpiece series, a set of chase reprints that will help hold down values, as people crack boxes to get these absolutely gorgeous foils.

I love what the Inventions offer, and I want to reiterate what this means for the rest of the set: lower prices. Battle for Zendikar had very few pricey cards, because the Expeditions were in such demand and lots of product got opened. We are going to see this at work as well in Kaladesh, pushing all the rest of the set downward financially. My picks today reflect that; I don’t see a lot of value in the gold symbols. We haven’t seen it all, but so far, I like some foils and I expect a lot of cheap cards.

Kaladesh has had two more spoiled mythics, so let’s jump into those before I discuss the rares that are worth it.

Combustible Gearhulk – Big and packing a giant zap, your opponent should never let you draw three. I’ve played Browbeat, and your opponent will always take the damage. I love that this combos with Eldrazi Displacer to make someone very sad, but since no one will ever let you draw three, this will be about $4 tops.

Dovin Baan – This into Fumigate is going to be the control deck’s dream for the next eighteen months. This card does everything that deck could desire, drawing and life and delaying. It’s going to see a lot of play, but I think that the Inventions keep this under $20, but above $15. He’s not going to see as much play as Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, and that’s a best-case scenario for a big-set planeswalker.

Now, the rares!

Panharmonicon – This is likely the best long-term hold in the set, but it is also the most reprintable. Wizards keeps finding ways to reprint stuff and I think that I’m going to pick up lots of these as they approach $1 for the regular, but this is going to have a big foil multiplier, I suspect between $5 and $10. No matter, as the foils are going to be an excellent way to retain value going forward.

Animation Module – As the rare of this cycle, it’s got the most potential, especially in foil, but that’s a lot of hoops to jump through. Barely above bulk.

Aetherflux Reservoir – What’s not to love? This is a fantastic way for lifegain decks to have a plan to win the game. It’s also instant-win to get played alongside Exquisite Blood, gaining 50 each time you deal 50. This is going to have a similar trajectory as Panharmonicon, with an impressive foil multiplier and a card I want to have many of when the set is done.

Metalwork Colossus – Nonartifact creatures means mana rocks. Plan accordingly, but keep in mind this lacks trample or anything like it. Likely a bulk rare.

Padeem, Consul of Innovation – Four mana is a lot, especially to not get the extra card for a whole turn, but I think the casual appeal will keep foils well above bulk rates.

Oviya Pashiri, Sage Lifecrafter – I want the regular copies to keep their price, but that won’t happen. She will be about $1, with a foil that jumps dramatically, past $5. She’s amazing in all the Doubling Season decks.

Insidious Will – I love this card in Commander and Cube. I don’t think this is good enough for Standard, at least not more than one or two for decks, but I think this will be a pretty foil and be able to ask at least $2-$3.

Fumigate – I have looked high and low and I can’t find a wrath that could gain significant life. I t suspect that it’ll see a lot of Standard use, but I’m sort of excited about the foils too. I can easily see a board wipe gaining 10 or more life, with the potential to be really disgusting. Foils should end up about $3-$4.