MTG Fast Finance is a new weekly podcast that tries to break down the flurry of financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering into a fast, fun and useful thirty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.
Spike Feeder (Foil), TSP: $9 to $20 (+100%, 6-12+ months)
Disclosure: Travis is holding copies of Arboria.
Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review
James and Travis reflected on the absolute dominance of the Eldrazi decks at Pro Tour: Oath of the Gatewatch, noting that 75% of the Top 8 decks were various flavors of the archetype. Affinity made up the other two decks. Team East West Bowl was called out as the most “tech” team of the tournament based on their brilliant UR Eldrazi build designed to give the deck game against Affinity and in the mirror.
Segment 4: Topic of the Week: Interview with Pro Tour: Oath of the Gatewatch Top 8 Competitor Andrew Brown (UR Eldrazi)
The guys had a good chat with Andrew covering the genesis of the Blue/Red Eldrazi deck, the community reaction to the deck. the financial impact of the decks’ success as well as the likelihood of a related ban in the near future.
James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.
Today’s piece is the second half of a set review that started here. In the previous installment we covered all the rare Lands, Artifacts, blue, and black cards. Today we are covering Green, Red, and White. The results are actually better than you would expect!
We are gonna start off with some quick acknowledgments:
I was not nearly as right about the Super Bowl as I was about the Pro Tour. Also, I was totally right about the Pro Tour. Boom, roasted.
That being said, be ready to get out of any Eldrazi cards that you don’t just want to own for the rest of your life. The difference between this deck and something that is just good is that the fundamental engine of the Eldrazi deck does something that Development just doesn’t allow any more. Nature abhors a vacuum, and WotC R&D abhors anything that subverts the fundamental structure of the game.
We are going to finish Urza’s Saga today, but I’m starting an exciting new series next week. I’m really looking forward to it, and so should you.
Antagonism: This card isn’t pushed enough to be punishing in EDH. Compare this to something like Stranglehold to get an idea of the bar it needs to clear.
Bedlam: Another instance of “printed only in Saga and 7th”. This card is actually surprisingly good, as it can represent an instant kill (assuming you have already done the hard work of getting an army in place), and can break up a lot of the gridlock in multiplayer games. As an enchantment this card is hard to get rid of, and can always be sacced and brought back with something like Starfield of Nyx. Foils are only available in the more questionable 7th Ed art, but those are somehow only $4. An interesting long-term target.
Brand: I know there are functions for this card, but it’s ultimately too narrow to have a financial impact.
Bulwark: Another red enchantment that is way too fair and not impactful enough even with the potential of multiple “triggers”. How many turns of this doing little to no damage are needed before this is good enough to be worth five mana and a slot in your deck?
Crater Hellion: Sold out on SCG, but two semi-recent printings (none available in foil) really do a lot in terms of limiting upside. Not sure whether these are sold out as an indicator of demand, or just because nobody has bothered to upload more.
BRIEF ASIDE: One of the reasons why I make sure to note that a card is sold out on StarCityGames is because SCG is on a whole other level in terms of “visibility”. There are people out there who don’t know about TCGPlayer, Cool Stuff, CardKingdom, whoever- but they know SCG. It’s not always reflective of price or any other type of factor, but it is certainly a tribute to their ability to promote to all levels of the Magic-playing populace, even outside of the more enfranchised spheres.
Visibility is a crucial factor in betting on older Magic cards.
Electryte: Cute, but not good enough to be played anywhere. Also possibly the name of a pokemon.
Fault Line: An instant speed Earthquake for just an extra R. I’d play this in Commander for sure, although there is a long list of red X spells that are as good as this or better. How often if ever is this better than Bonfire of the Damned?
Gamble: A Legacy staple that has no chance of ever fitting into modern design/development philosophy. Unlike some of the other cards we’ve liked so far (Lifeline, Yawgmoth’s Will, Tolarian Academy, etc), this is NOT on the Reserve List. According to PucaTrade, there is a little over one copy traded per week, which is actually better than I expected.
Lightning Dragon: The prerelease promo is $8 because it’s a promotional foil copy of a dragon, but the set version doesn’t have any draw in 2016. Our bad dragons now are so much better than our borderline ones were back then.
There have always been Dragon collectors in Magic, but I can’t figure out why…
Scoria Wurm: five mana for a bad 7/7 is not as flashy as it used to be.
Shivan Hellkite: The foil version from Tenth is worth a look. This is the kind of card I always liked pairing with Death Pits of Rath back in the day.
Sneak Attack: Another red Legacy staple that is not on the Reserve List. Honestly, I could see Gamble and/or Sneak Attack in a future commander product, since they are played in multiple formats and styles of archetypes.
Sulfuric Vapors: Another card that just doesn’t do enough. Also, why is every red rare an enchantment that costs 4?
Wildfire: A good card that has too many other printings.
Abundance: This card doesn’t technically win you games, but it does a lot to help you not lose games. I love the old frame and the way it makes this art look, but the Tenth Edition version is a little bit cleaner and easier to read. The foil is $30+, so there is room for the non-foils to creep up. Demand is likely only for commander, which means one copy is enough for most players.
Argothian Enchantress: The Enchantress archetype isn’t as much of a thing now as it has been in the past, but this card is often a 4x staple. I wouldn’t be aggressive in acquiring these, as Enchantress isn’t likely to surge in popularity anytime soon, but don’t pass up on a deal as these have pedigree.
Child of Gaea: There are too many other better Elementals.
Citanul Centaurs: This looks like a character that would be voiced by H Jon Benjamin. Hopefully that makes it into the Magic movie.
Citanul Hierophants: probably one of the fairest ways to generate a lot of mana in your deck. This propels you into the late game, but it doesn’t do anything else when you get there.
Exploration: Conspiracy did a lot of damage here, especially in terms of introducing foils. I love this art a lot, though.
Greater Good: This is probably the ideal green EDH enchantment. I was high on it years ago, but I don’t think I ever expected it to get as high as it is. I don’t know how many reprint outlets it has these days, and all of the printings are pretty old by now. Buy them if you need them, and pick up any deals if you see them. I don’t think these will get much cheaper, although a commander reprint will likely torpedo non-foil prices.
Greener Pastures: This card would probably cost G if it was designed today.
Hidden Herd: A bad Wild Nacatl that is slightly unreliable, especially late.
Hidden Predators: I feel slightly bad about Hidden Herd being rated poorly, but I don’t feel nearly as bad about bashing this. A total trap.
Hidden Stag: The worst of this cycle. The weird part is that the “hidden” aspect here is worse with the advent of Abrupt Decay.
Midsummer Revel: More junk. There are a lot of junk rares in this set, which discourages me from buying packs of this set.
Vernal Bloom: 7th and 8th foils are at ten, but these are certainly the most appealing non-foils. I think the foil versions are probably a little low, especially for 7th.
Angelic Chorus: Probably about right at $4. The foils from Tenth are probably underpriced at $15 looking at Abundance and some of the other cards we’ve discussed in this series.
Catastrophe: Another really good card in multiplayer that is probably close to correct in price.
Faith Healer: An interesting element that could surge alongside things like Starfield of Nyx. Definitely a long shot, and probably only good in niche, pet archetypes.
Glorious Anthem: Too many printings and not enough application to see any price movement here now.
Herald of Serra: Like Lightning Dragon, this is an under-costed version of an old card that is just not really good enough in the formats its allowed to play in. Pass.
Intrepid Hero: An underrated EDH card. Also, in this art the hero looks like a King of the Hill character.
Opal Titan: closer than Archangel, but still on the outside looking in. 2WW is a tough club to break into.
Pariah: Foils from 7th and Tenth are pretty high, which is interesting because this card seems relatively underpowered. I think demand is probably non-existent, so I would just make a note to snag foils if you see them underpriced.
Planar Birth: I love lands in graveyards more than most people, and I have no use for this card. Hard pass.
Remembrance: This card suffers by being useless in the format that would be most inclined to playing it. Too much mana anywhere else.
Worship: This actually spiked pretty recently, because unlike most of this set it has application in Modern. I don’t think it’s really playable, but I think it’s probably a big enough casual favorite that the new price of $10ish isn’t too high to slide dramatically. The “spike” was more realistically a price adjustment, because these were basically free for a long time, despite being a life-long member in the “Underworld Dreams Club of Cards Casuals Like”.
Thanks for reading! That was definitely harder to get through than I expected. I’ll see you next week!
Best,
Ross
UPDATE!!!! So the announcement of Eternal Masters doesn’t change my impressions of these cards in terms of playability, because the set doesn’t sound like it is introducing any new pieces. However, the potential for a new reprint pipeline does mean that any card that is expensive just because it is older and hard to find is likely to tank. If this set drives demand for Legacy or a yet-to-be-announced new constructed format, then it’s likely that early-identified staples actually go up in price (Force of Will, Wasteland). The safest play in terms of respecting all of the options is to target the niches- all of those 7th Edition EDH foils that we talked about, as well as waiting to see what cards don’t make the cut. EM1 can’t reprint EVERYTHING, and I expect this first version to include some casual/EDH staples (my best guess? Greater Good) to try and hedge the audience appeal. Also, there seems to already be a run on Reserve List cards (including Great Whale, which we discussed last week), but this is reactionary action that is likely to burn quite a few people. Avoid it as you would The Noid.
MTG Fast Finance is a new weekly podcast that tries to break down the flurry of financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering into a fast, fun and useful thirty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.
Inkmoth Nexus, MRB: $40 to $50+ (+25%, 0-6 months)
Pia & Kiran Nalaar, ORI (Intro Foil): $11 to $20+ (+80%, 6-12+ months)
Stone Haven Outfitter, OGW (Foil): $2 to $5+ (150%, 12+ months)
Disclosure: James is holding or acquiring all of the above cards.
Travis Picks:
Collected Company, DTK: $15 to $25 (+67%, 6-12 months)
Spreading Seas, ZEN: $1 to $3 (+200%, 0-6 months)
Shrine of the Foresaken, BFZ: $1 to $3 (+300%, 0-6 months)
Disclosure: Travis is holding copies of Collected Company.
Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review
The guys reviewed the results from the SCG Open Standard tourney in Columbus, Ohio, noting that Gideon, Ally of Zendikar appeared as 4-of in three different decks. The Modern Classic event at the same tournament was won by UG Infect, with Tron, Scapeshift, Burn and Jund all in the Top 8, in clear opposition to the Eldrazi dominated Pro Tour this past weekend.
Segment 4: Topic of the Week: Is MTG Too Expensive?
The guys made predictions as to the likelihood of the Innistrad Echoes promo cards being included in Shadows over Innistrad as rumored, and discussed which cards might be included.
James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.
After sixteen Rounds of Swiss, including six rounds of draft, we are looking at one of the most star-studded Top8 lineups in years, including two Hall of Fame members in LSV and Shuhei, and a plethora of accomplished players at the highest levels of the game. Despite the top tier talent on display, the community concern is high after bannings of Splinter Twin and Summer Bloom seem to have yielded a metagame fully dominated by various Eldrazi decks relying on their broken lands (Eye of Ugin and Eldrazi Temple) to power out threats ahead of curve. Two Affinity decks did make it into the Top 8, as a fast and powerful archetype that can sometimes outrace even the Eldrazi, but the health of the format is still called into question.
Here are the players who made Top 8, along with the decks they are playing today:
Shuhei Nakamura (Eldrazi)
Ivan Floch (Eldrazi)
LSV (Eldrazi)
Jiachen Tao (UR Eldrazi)
Pascal Maynard ( Affinity)
Andrew Brown (UR Eldrazi)
Frank Lepore (Eldrazi)
Patrick Dickmann (Affinity)
Overnight, the following cards gained in price from their Pro Tour exposure:
Shuhei Nakamura (CFB Eldrazi) vs. Jiachen Tao (UR Eldrazi)
Folks have been disrespecting the UR Eldrazi deck all weekend, but the stats don’t lie. This deck went 19-1 on Day 1 across 4 different pilots, and did nearly as well on Day 2. Across the first three games of a best-of-5 series vs. Hall of Fame member Shuhei Nakumura, however, both Eldrazi Skyspawner and Drowner of Hope go toe to toe with one of the best players in the world, playing a CFB team designed Eldrazi deck, and manage to take Tao up to 2-1. The spikes on cards from the UR Eldrazi deck were slow to take off, as many people likely had trouble believing that this pile of former limited cards were actually worth playing in Modern, but the tide had turned by Saturday evening, with foil copies of cards like Drowner of Hope and Eldrazi Obligator, drying up almost entirely.
In Game 4 Tao gets off to a fast start with two Eldrazi Mimic on Turn 1. On Turn 3, a Reality Smasher from Tao, prompts a Dismember, but the Mimics still get in. An Oblivion Sower from Shuhei seemingly stablizes the board but a timely Eldrazi Obligator clears out all defense and Tao moves on to the semi-finals against the Hall of Famer!
Luis-Scott Vargas (CFB Eldrazi) vs. Pascal Maynard (Affinity)
LSV takes the first two games. In Game 3 Maynard gets a fast start, but LSV has a Ratchet Bomb to blunt the early attacks. A flurry of exchanges leaves one robot left in the air a few turns later, and Maynard gets a game. In Game 4, LSV has to mulligan to 5 to find a satisfactory hand. Maynard gets off to a fast start with Inkmoth Nexus, two Signal Pests and a Memnite. LSV gets his third land into play on Turn 3 however, and LSV manages a Reality Smasher that swings. Master of Etherium from Maynard puts LSV on the back foot, but he answers with Dismember and holds back his Smasher to block. The defensive plan is dashed however, as Maynard squeezes through enough damage in the air to take the match to 2-2.
LSV boards in his Chalice of the Voids on the play, and finds a hand with one to use on zero, along with a Pithing Needle and a Dismember. Maynard goes to six cards and dispatches an early Chalice with Ancient Grudge. LSV needs to find a land to get more of his hand on the table. A land off the top a couple of turns later, and LSV gets a Thought Knot Seer to clear a Master out of Maynard’s hand, pumps his Mimic to 4/4 and swings with it alongside an Endless One. A few exchanges later, LSV is forced to trade a Blinkmoth for an Inkmoth from Maynard, with two Reality Smashers stuck in hand. With one Matter Reshaper on the board and another off the top, LSV applies enough pressure, finding the needed land the following turn and putting away the match to advance.
Patrick Dickmann (Affinity) vs. Andrew Brown (UR Eldrazi)
Patrick takes Game 1 in quick fashion with a blistering Affinity draw. In Game 2 an early Whipflare from Dickmann clears the board of Mimic and Obligator, and Brown is forced to lean on a Hurkyl’s Recall to slow down the Affinity aggression. Another copy of the same blue instant does similar work, and a Chalice of the Void on one traps a pile of cards in Dickmann’s hand. Even still, the Affinity player manages to drop two Ornithopters and a Steel Overseer, and takes Game 2 through a Reality Smasher that joined the party too late. Patrick Dickmann accelerates just as fast in Game 3, and stuck on lands for a couple of turns too long, Brown falls in three games.
Frank LePore (Ingester Eldrazi) vs. Ivan Floch (Eldrazi)
LePore takes Game 1 on the back of Drowner of Hope, a card that continues to exceed expectations in the context of these grindy ground battle based games. In Game 2, an early Ghost Quarter from Floch on LePore’s Eye of Ugin, forces Frank to drop an Urborg that enables an Oblivion Sower from Floch, and Frank elects to move on to the next game, tied at one a piece.
In Game 3 a huge board stall ends up swinging in Flochs’ favor, and he moves up a game, leading 2-1 in the match. The fourth game finishes quickly, with early pressure from LePore going unanswered soon enough to save Floch, and the players move to the tie breaking game. Game 5 is a tense back and forth, but Floch manages to come out on top and moves on the Top 4 where we have one Affinity deck and three Eldrazi decks remaining.
Semi-Finals
Jiachen Tao (UR Eldrazi) vs LSV (CFB Eldrazi)
Tao explodes out the gate with two Mimics and a 2/2 Endless One on Turn 1, demonstrating the potential explosiveness in the Eldrazi decks’ ability to fracture the usual mana curve of Modern decks. LSV manages a Dismember, but is quickly run over, losing Game 1 in less than five minutes. In Game 2 Tao is again manage to present an aggressive series of attacks, but only after LSV has knocked him down to four life. Forced to bet on a bad draw from his opponent on the next turn Tao, attacks with everything, but dies to a top decked Reality Smasher from LSV.
In Game 3 Tao seems poised to take the game with a significant on board advantage, but a masterful sequence of defensive plays from LSV baits Tao into an unsuccessful attack that leaves him wide open to the crack back. LSV takes the lead 2-1, looking to close out the match in the next game. Eldrazi Obligator closes out Game 4 quickly in favor of Tao however, and forces a final game to decide our victor.
Between games Tao receives a warning on the basis that he did not actually have the mana to activate the Threaten ability on Obligator. LSV then mulligans twice looking for a competitive hand, and the stage is set for an anti-climatic final game. Not able to find the defense he needed to get back in the game, LSV falls and we find Tao in position to battle for the top slot having defeated back-to-back Magic Hall of Famers.
Patrick Dickmann (Affinity) vs. Ivan Floch (Eldrazi)
In Game 1, Master of Etherium is back on camera as a renewed Affinity staple in this meta. Floch is forced to play defensively in the face of a top tier draw from Dickmann, finds himself pinched on mana on a key turn, and Dickmann is able to present lethal to take the first game. In Game 2, Dickmann stalls out with two Ornithopters in hand, and three Signal Pests on board, facing down an active Eye of Ugin that provides everything Floch needs to get take the game and even things up at one a piece.
Game 3 ends up hinging on a well timed Gut Shot on a Vault Skirge preventing the use of SpringLeaf Drum to cast a second, and Dickmann is Reality Smashed a turn or two later. Dissatisfied with his first hand, Dickmann sends it back looking for a grip that can bring the pain. Floch takes off fast however, following up a Turn 1 Mimic with a Turn 2 Reality Smasher off of Simian Spirit Guidemana. Dickmann fails to pull out of the hole, and Floch takes the match 3-1, knocking the remaining non-Eldrazi deck out of the tournament.
Finals
Ivan Floch (Eldrazi) vs Jiachen Tao (UR Eldrazi)
So it’s an all-Eldrazi final after all. In Game 1 Ivan Floch finds three Reality Smashers before Tao can really get established on board, and the game is quickly won by the colorless Eldrazi deck pilot.
To start Game 2, Floch has to mulligan to find sufficient action, and despite trying to stabalize on Oblivion Sower, an Eldrazi Obligator from Tao demonstrates yet again how well tuned the UR build is for Eldrazi mirror matches. Tao also takes Game 3 with a well-timed Thought-Knot Seer knocking out a key Reality Smasher to pressure Floch into concession.
In the final game, Tao gets to start with Gemstone Cavern in play, dropping an Eldrazi Mimic and an Eldrazi Skyspawner on Turn 1. Floch, mulliganing to 5 cards, is unable to gain much steam. Turn 2 has Tao dropping Vile Aggregate, and attacking for seven damage with Mimic and Skyspawner. One attack later, Floch is top decking to hang on and can’t find an answer. Tao is our champion on UR Eldrazi, using Eldrazi Skyspawner and Drowner of Hope to win a Modern (!) Pro Tour.
Wrap-up: Look for Eldrazi staples to hit close to peak this week. It’s a great time to get out, since the ban potential of the deck is high in the next 3-12 months and gains are already significant. Death’s Shadow, Infect, Burn and Affinity cards should do well this month as well, since they represent the decks that have the best chance of keeping pace with this utterly broken land base.
MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY
