After 8 hard fought rounds on Friday, including three rounds of draft and five rounds of standard, a metagame clustered around the best established constructed archetypes of the last few weeks has emerged. Despite more than 20 distinct decks making up at least 1% of the metagame, a full 60% of the field can be said to be on a variation of G/W Megamorph, Atarka Red or Jeskai Splash. Esper Control and Abzan take up the 4th and 5th slots by metagame at the event.

If there is a financial story on the weekend so far, it’s that many of the formats’ dominant cards are likely to hold and gain some value coming out of the weekend. In particular, cards such as Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy and Den Protector all look likely to see plenty of play post this meta.

Over the last week, all of the following cards have put up 25%+ price spikes. A common theme here is undervalued rares from KTK block that are coming into their own in the new meta as they escape peak supply and find room to break out. Many of these cards are doing well enough thus far to hold position as card carrying members of the 3 top archetypes:

• Crackling Doom (+200%): $1 to $3
• Mantis Rider (+67%): $1.50 to $2.50
• Dromoka’s Command (+60%): $5 to $8
• Zurgo Bellstriker (+45%): $2.50 to $3.60
• Dragonlord Ojutai (+40%): $20 to $28
• Den Protector (+40%): $11 to $16
• Ojutai’s Command (+33%): $3 to $4
• Dragonmaster Outcast (+40%): $4 to $6
• Anafenza, the Foremost (+25%): $6.50 to $8.25

After two more rounds of draft this morning, we now have the following players and decks within striking distance of a Top 8 berth and a date with destiny:

• Christian Calcano on an innovative UB Aristocrats brew that pairs Liliana, Heretical Healer and Whirler Rogue with Nantuko Husk to great effect. Watch for Lilanna to pop if Calcano makes Top 8.
• Eric Severson, our leader from Day 1 on Jeskai Black, with Jacob Wilson not far behind
• Hall of Famer, Paulo Vitor Dama de Rosa cutting through the crowd with Atarka Red
• Ryochi Tamada looking to make a mark with straight Jeskai
• Reid Duke on Esper Control

Cards that are noticeable absent thus far at the top tables include Oblivion Sower and Ulamog, perhaps condemning ramp to Tier 2 status, at least until the release of Oath of the Gatewatch this winter.

Follow along with us as we stalk the final 5 rounds of Standard play before the cut to Top 8.

Round 12: (6th Round of Standard)

Patrick Chapin (Esper Control) vs. Shaun McClaren (Dark Jeskai)

Chapin takes Game 1 on the back of a pair of early Silkwrap, helping cement that card as one of the best kill spells in the format. Chapin’s build eschews dragons in favor of planeswalkers to close out the game. Both these players are on 8-2-1, looking to go at least 4-1 today in Standard to ensure a Top 8 berth. Efficient use of removal followed up by the power of Ob Nixilis, Gideon and Secure the Wastes puts McClaren away in Game 2, putting Chapin 3 wins away from the Top 8.

Paul Reitzl (Esper Control) vs Martin Juza (Esper Dragons)

This match provides insights into the future of control decks in Standard as we see the dragons take on the planeswalkers in a battle of long game stratgies. The players trade a game each, and end up in a strange final game, where both players on 8-3 are forced to accept a tie and bank on winning through to the Top 8.

Deck Tech: Blue/Black Aristocrats w/ Christian Calcano

Calcano calls out Liliana, Heretical Healer as the 2nd most important card in the deck after Nantuko Husk. The players on the deck are 4-2 and 5-1, which marks the deck for potential future success. Lilianna has already doubled this week on MTGO, so a strong Top 8 performance could possibly move the paper price from $15 up toward $20. A quick look at TCGPlayer shows copies under $17 already drying up.

Round 13: (7th Round of Standard)

Christian Calcano (UB Aristocrats) vs. Kazuyuki Takimura (Abzan)

Calcano takes a tight Game 1 after using Sidisi’s Faithful (!) to remove a key blocker and finish off Takimura. Calcano gets his opponent to 1 in Game 2, but can’t keep his synergies intact for the extra turn needed to put things away. A vicious Murderous Cut forces Calcano into a draw, and the Top 8 achievement is now in doubt for UB Aristocrats.

Jon Finkel (Jeskai Black) vs. Jon Stern (Atarka Red)

As we come in Stern is up a game but Finkel puts on a good show, using Radiant Flames and then recursive Lightning Bolts vis a vis Soulfire Grandmaster and Fiery Impulse to deal with successive waves of Goblins and manages to take the second game. Most players are at 10-3, so can’t afford the loss to be secure for Top 8.

Round 14: (8th Round of Standard)

Eric Severson (Jeskai Black) vs. Yuta Takahashi (Abzan)

Both players are on 10-3 and can earn a “win-and-in” with a win in this match. Takahashi wins the grind war to take Game 1. Brilliant sequencing by Takahashi in Game 2 takes the match and Abzan moves a big step closer to claiming at least one Top 8 spot.

Owen Turtenwald (Jeskai Black) vs. PVD (Atarka Red)

Owen defeats Pualo and ensures that both of these top tier players will make Top 8.

Round 15: (9th Round of Standard)

Jon Finkel (Jeskai Black) vs. PVD (Atarka Red)

This round brings us a match between titans and a possible foreshadowing for top 8 success. Facing down a horde of goblins both games, Johnny Magic makes his 15th Top 8!

Round 16: (10th Round of Standard)

Reid Duke (Esper Control) vs. Takimura (GW Megamorph)

Reid needs to win here, and possibly also have his friend Owen win his own match to give him his best chance at a Top 8 slot. After losing Game 1, Reid suffers when a Transgress the Mind exiles his Ugin, invalidating the power of Haven of the Spirit Dragon.

Owen Turtenwald (Jeskai Black) vs. Paul Dean (GW Megamorph)

Owen didn’t need to win this match to Top 8, but by “dream killing” Paul Dean he improves the odds that Reid makes Top 8. Owen wins his match and secures the top seed for Top 8.

Brandon Burton (Atarka Red) vs. Javier Dominguez (Atarka Red)

The winner of this match is set to likely take the 8th seed in the Top 8, ensuring at least one Atarka Red deck in contention. The games are tight, but some sweet tech in the form of Hooting Mandrills helps Dominguez take the match.

Yuta Takahashi (Abzan) vs. Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai)

Winner of this match puts a tri-color deck into the Top 8. Tamada takes it down to put Jeskai in contention.

Top 8 Decks

Despite a plethora of pretenders to the crown in the form of innovative new decks, our Top 8 turns out very much as expected with a mixture of Jeskai Black, Atarka Red and GW Megamoph, almost exactly the same as the results from the SCG Open in Atlanta last week, with a single Jeskai Tokens build to add some spice.

1. Owen Turtenwald (Jeskai Black)
2. Ricky Chin (GW Megamorph)
3. Paulo Vita Damp Da Rosa (Atarka Red)
4. Martin Muller (Jeskai Tokens)
5. Takimura (GW Megamorph)
6. Jon Finkel (Jeskai Black)
7. Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai)
8. Paul Dean (Abzan)

With this Top 8, I’d be selling Liliana, Heretical Healer, Oblivion Sower and Drana, and trading into Jace and Gideon. Otherwise most of the key cards have already jumped.

Join us tomorrow for live Top 8 coverage!

The stage is set for a weekend of epic card battles.  Despite a fairly muted response to the constructed playable cards of Battle for Zendikar, we find ourselves facing down a neatly refreshed metagame with multiple viable archetypes. After weeks of secretive testing, the top Magic teams on the planet have gathered for another epic battle between top Magic: The Gathering pros from across the globe. Over $250,000 USD is on the line, with the winner taking home a hefty $40,000 after three days of intense competition in in Milwaukee Wisconsin, USA.

As per usual, the Pro Tour weekends now feature a mix of booster draft (BFZ-BFZ-BFZ) and constructed formats with 3 rounds of draft Friday morning, followed by 5 rounds of Standard starting around 4-5pm EST.

For the MTG Finance community, the big question on all of our minds is whether any new cards from Battle for Zendikar will buck the trends of the first two major SCG Open tournaments of the season, and burst into the spotlight in Standard to push our recent specs into profitability. Will an overlooked card from the last block suddenly become key tech? Will there be a chance to get in on a must-have card that shows early promise or will the hype train leave the bandwagon speculators out in the cold without buyers come Monday morning?

With the Expedition lands suppressing the price of the rest of the cards in Battle for Zendikar, the conditions are right for some big spikes this weekend, though no-shows will find their prices undercut even further.

Many of the top teams have been in stealth mode for the last couple of weeks, furtively holed up in chilly northern hotels and AirBnB pads, attempting to break a format open that has stubbornly clustered around Jeskai Black, G/W Megamorpth & Ataraka Red thus far.

 

Pre-Game Top 8 Contenders

The early weeks of the new Standard format have demonstrated a fairly limited number of Tier 1 strategies that have a chance at dominance this weekend:

• Jeskai Black
• G/W Megamorph
• Atarka Red

The most popular Tier 2 strategies to date have included:

• Abzan Aggro
• Abzan Control
• Golgari/Jund Aristocrats
• G/W Hardened Scales

With all of the testing this week there’s also the distinct possibility that this weekend will mark the debut of a sweet new brew, with my bet being on either an Eldrazi Ramp strategy or a B/W Mid-Range build leveraging Wasteland Strangler to emerge from the pack . With Standard starting before most of us are home from work, the stage is set for first mover advantage if an unexpected deck jumps out to an early lead in the hands of a reliable pilot. Which deck are you rooting for?

Cards to Watch

Gideon, Ally of Zendikar: Don’t Underestimate The General

28 of the top 32 decks at the SCG Open in Atlanta last weekend featured white cards, a color that has long been thought to be underpowered in Standard. With 4-of appearances in the winning G/W Megamorph deck and the 4th place Jeskai Black deck, as well as 3-of usage in the 5th place Bant Megamorph deck and the 7th place Jeskai Dragons. Facing peak supply, Gideon is still holding the top price tag in his set, and at $32 could easily pop above $40 if he wins big this weekend.

Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger: Is Ramp Real?

No one is denying that Ulamog is one of the most powerful things to be doing in a deck that wants to ramp. The problem thus far has been that most decks have cheaper options to put away the game in Dragonmaster Atarka, Silumgar the Drifting Death or Ugin, the Spirit Dragon. With a fast, grindy format expected, the appearance of a strong ramp strategy may be an outside shot, but at $13, there is certainly upside if our tentacled overlord makes a strong showing.

Jace, Vrin’s Prodigy: Set to Dominate?

  

Once an underestimated $10 pre-order, Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy has now blown through the ceiling for a Standard legal mythic, spiking towards $80 before falling back to $65 recently. Mostly being used in the various Jeskai builds at the top tables, Jace’s price direction coming out of the weekend should depend on whether he makes the Top 8. A miss could easily see the card fall back to $50-55, which a strong showing like SCG Atlanta could easily drive a fresh spike in the $5-10 range. As a strong believer in the future of Jace in older formats, I am actively looking for an entry point under $50.

Oblivion Sower: The Ramp Enabler?

No one denies that the creature is powerful, and fooling around with exile effects certainly brings some popular side benefits, but we’re still waiting for a viable ramp strategy to show that it can hold back the early aggro decks for a long enough to set up camp. So far, nothing exciting has emerged, so this could be a card set to sink yet further coming out of the weekend.

Wasteland Strangler: 2nd Coming of Flametongue Kavu?

With Hangarback Walker being played everywhere coming out of late summer, the format has shifted to a preference for exile effects, with cards like Silkwrap, Complete Disregard and Utter End seeing increased play. Consequently, the stage is set for this dangerous creature to find a home in a B/W Tempo Deck similar to the one I’ve been testing lately with exile effects, Drana, Gideon, Seeker of the Way, Sorin and Wingmate Roc. Being able to kill an early threat, and then take out a Deathmist Raptor or Mantis Rider should not be underestimated, and at just $.40, I’d love to see a big pro give me a reason to go deep on this portable 2-for-1.

Dragonlord Ojutai: Time to Flee?

Despite my misgivings in late summer, Ojutai has managed to find a second spike in the $30 range, and is now sliding back toward $25 on lessened play facing a metagame full of sacrifice effects, led by Crackling Doom out of the Jeskai Black decks. If that trend continues I would expect to see limited play from the Azorious Dragonlord this weekend, and a further slide back toward $20.

Here are some other interestingly cheap cards, that could spike hard on unexpected strong play this weekend:

• Demonic Pact ($2.50): The Demonic Pact decks have been hovering in the shadows, waiting to pounce once someone figures out the right build to leverage the extreme card advantage inherent to the archetype.  As a mythic from Magic Origins, the card could pop hard if anyone ever figures it out.
• Lilianna, Heretical Healer ($15): The nasty necromancer hasn’t found a strong home yet, but could be a key component in a rebuild of the GB Aristocrats decks that have been squeezing a few copies into the Top 32 of early tournaments. Smothering Abomination, sitting under $.50, could also pop if this deck does well.
• Jeskai Ascendancy: This formerly dominant Standard player has been sidelined for months at $0.75, but could be primed to bounce back on a good showing from Jeskai Tokens decks.

Stay tuned for Round by Round MTGFinance coverage of Pro Tour Magic Origins all weekend!

Round 4 (1st Round of Constructed)

• Gabriel Nassif (GB Aristocrats) vs Frank Karsten (Atarka Red)
• Martin Dang (Jeskai Tokens) vs Joel Larsson (Jeskai Tokens)

Both of these recent Pro Tour winners are on a Jeskai Ascendancy build with Gideon, leveraging a pile of tokens via Goblin Fodder and Hordeling Outburst to try and go wide on opponents.Jace is also present in both decks. The players split the first two games.

• Antonio Del Moral Leon (Esper Dragons) vs Yuta Takahashi (Abzan Control)

Deck Tech #1: Adrian Sullivan on Esper Demonic Pact Control

This card leverages Demonic Pact via Disperse, Silumgar’s Command and Utter End. Also runs a bunch of Esper Dragons style control cards.

Round 5: (2nd Round of Constructed)

• Gerry Thompson (Mardu Dragons) vs. Paul Cheon (Naya Megamorph)

Thompson is running Sarkhan, Dragonspeaker alongside a full grip of Thunderbreak Regents. Cheon’s deck makes user of Hangarback Walker, Nissa, Gideon, Dromoka’s Command and Wingmate Roc. Cheon takes the first game on the back of multiple Rocs.

• Jon Stern (Atarka Red) vs. Marcos Paylo De Jesus Freitas (Naya Eldrazi)

In Game 1, Marcos fails to ramp in time to stem the aggressive tide from Jon Stern.

• Owen Turtenwald (Dark Jeskai) vs. Makihito Mihara (Blue Abzan)

Owen is on a fairly familiar Jeskai Black build, while Mihara is playing Treasure Cruise alongside the usual Abzan cards. Owen takes Game 1 down with the help of Jace recursion on Roast. Mihara bounces back to take game 2. Mihara steals a noteable Dragonmaster Outcast with Exert Influence in Game 3. Mihara also running a miser Bring to Light, and manages to take the match.

Deck Tech #2: Dan Ward on Temur/Jeskai Dragons

This deck features:

• 4 Beastcaller Savant
• 4 Rattleclaw Mystic
• 4 Mantis Rider
• 3 Savage Knuckblade
• 4 Woodland Wanderer
• 4 Thunderbreak Regent
• 4 Icefall Regent
• 4 Draconic Roar
• 2 Jeskai Charm
• 2 Stubborn Denial

 

Round 6: (3rd Round of Constructed)

• Oliver Polak-Rottman (Esper Control 5-0) vs. Jacob Wilson (Dark Jeskai 5-0)

Wilson takes the match 2-0 to advance to 6-0 as Oliver resigns from the match in frustration after a misplay.

• Christian Calcano (UB Aristocrats) vs. Peter Vieren (Esper Control)

Calcano takes down his match with his innovative color shifted version of Aristocrats.

• Makihito Mihara (Blue Abzan) vs. Owen Turtenwald (Dark Jeskai)

Mihara’s innovative Abzan build splashes blue for Jace, Everywhere Prodigy and Treasure Cruise. Turtenwald is on a fairly standard Dark Jeskai build, leveraging Crackling Doom and Tasigur for value. The match was a grindy and technical affair, but Mihara managed to come out on top after three.

Deck Tech #3: G/W Megamorph

Michael Majors is showing off his updated build of the expected G/W Megamorph deck.

Round 7: (4th Round of Constructed)

• Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa (7-0, Atarka Red) vs. Yuta Takahashi (7-0 Abzan Aggro)

Both builds were fairly well known here. PVD takes it down 2-1.

Round 8: (5th Round of Constructed)

• Magnus Lantto (Esper Planeswalkers) vs. Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai)

Lantto’s deck represents a revised version of earlier Esper Dragons control builds, with Ob Nixilis, Reignited and Gideon, Ally of Zendikar standing in for the cards no one wants to lose to Crackling Doom or Foul Tongue Invocation this weekend. Tamada chose to eschew a 4th color alongside his streamlined Jeskai build, looking to ensure that Jeskai Charm could consistently push through the final points of damage. The strategy paid off again here, with Tamada taking the match in two games, and leaving him at 7-1 on the day.

At the end of Day 1, only Eric Severson remains undefeated, with his Jeskai Black build.

Our Day 1 Metagame breakdown looks as follows (% of field in brackets):

• Atarka Red: 14.4%
• Dark Jeskai: 13.90%
• Green-White Megamorph: 10.90%
• Esper Dragons: 6.30%
• Abzan: 4.90%
• Esper Control: 4.10%
• Red-Green Landfall: 3.80%
• Blue Abzan: 3.00%
• Naya Megamorph: 3.00%

Though the three decks with the best records in recent weeks occupy our top slots and make up a full 40% of the metagame, the field is still relatively wide open with more than 20 distinct deck types representing at least 1% of the field. This likely indicates that team testing resulted in no certain feel for the best deck in the format, and a relative lack of reliable trumps against a field full of diverse threats and answers. In such a format we can likely expect to see both skill and experience contribute strongly to our winner.

Full details on the metagame can be found here.

Join us at 11am Saturday for Day 2 coverage of Pro Tour: Battle for Zendikar!

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.