Welcome to another instalment of The Meta Report. The past weekend yielded a slew of major tournament results. There was Grand Prix Indianapolis which gave us some exciting new Standard results (spoiler alert: Jace is no longer king). The first Modern Grand Prix since rotation took place at Porto Alegre, and while Battle for Zendikar did not exert the level of impact Khans of Rhino and Cruise had on the format, a few new cards managed to slip into Modern. There was also the StarCityGames Modern Open at Dallas-Fort Worth.
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If you haven’t heard of it, the inimitable cross-format all-star blue two-drop, Snapcaster Mage, was unveiled as next year’s RPTQ promo in an announcement during the Pro Tour last Sunday. You can read about the details here.
Snapcaster Mage was the biggest winner during this year’s Modern season over the summer. Despite being the third most-played card in Modern and the most-popular creature in the format, Tiago Chan’s invitational card languished at $25 to $35 for the majority of its existence. Spring this year finally saw Snapcaster move up to $60, and July, at the height of the Modern fever, Snapcaster breached $100.
$100 is an extraordinary price tag for a rare from the modern-era print run, but considering Snapcaster’s ubiquity in the format, it is not preposterous.
Most-played cards in Modern in 2015, from mtgtop8.com.
According to statistics from mtgtop8.com Snapcaster Mage was found in nearly one-third of all Modern decks, and decks that run Snapcaster ran three to four copies of it. Nearly all tier one decks running blue require Snapcasters, in similar veins to green-based decks requiring Tarmogoyfs. The goyf may reign supreme as the most expensive card in the format, but lacking a playset of Snapcaster would cut you off from a larger number of tier one Modern decks compared with not owning Tarmogoyfs.
Snapcaster Mage is the definitive creature of the Modern format, and one of the biggest mtgfinance long-term holds over the past few years (give yourself a pat on the back if you’ve bought Snaps at $25- $35). While players rejoice at reprints, financiers holding copies of the affected card rue the same event for the fact that reprints quite often spell a death knell for the price of affected long-term holds.
Even though I have a tiny number of long-hold Snapcasters, I am actually happy with the announcement as I shall elaborate in this article.
The Next Most Likely Mass Reprint of Snapcaster Mage
Before I go on to discuss the reasons Snapcaster being next year’s RPTQ promo is good for long-term holders of the card and players alike, I would like to explain an assumption which I think most of us could agree on:
Assuming that the next Modern Masters is coming out in 2017 based on the two-year cycle between the past two Modern Masters,
Assuming that the next Modern Masters will include Innistrad, seeing that the recent Modern Masters2015 went all the way to New Phyrexia,
The next most likely mass reprint event for Snapcaster Mage would be in the summer of 2017, in Modern Masters 2017.
RPTQ Promo Reprint Means No Grand Prix Promo Reprint
After Innistrad dodged reprint in Modern Masters 2015, the biggest medium-term risk to the price of Snapcaster Mage is being selected as next year’s Grand Prix promo. Even though Grand Prix promos are foil versions featuring a new art, the sheer number of Grand Prix promos given out asserts a depressing impact on the long-term price of a card. The Grand Prix promo reprint of Modern-and-Legacy mainstay Griselbrand pretty much smashed his price to smithereens. Batterskull remained high for a few months in 2014, when it was the Grand Prix promo for the year, but it eventually dropped and is now having a hard time growing despite being a mainboard card in Legacy Stoneblade and Death and Taxes and a spattering of Modern play, mainly in the sideboard.
Let’s do a little back of the napkin calculation. There are 54 Grand Prix in 2015. Assuming an average attendance of 1,000 players per Grand Prix (most North American and European Grand Prix tend to attract a much larger crowd), by the end of 2015 there would at least 54, 000 copies of a card being introduced into the market and that is a very conservative number as it does not take into account outliers like the Modern Masters 2015 weekend which saw nearly 10,000 players receive the Griselbrand promo.
Comparatively, there are only four RPTQs per year. The sole RPTQ attendance figures released by Wizards so far revealed an attendance of 1,923 for the Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar RPTQs (the article cites ‘around 1,800’, but tallying up the figures from the table in the article gives 1,923). Rounding the figure up to 2,000, we can assume that the number of promo Snapcaster Mage that would be handed out next year to be around 8,000 at most, and that is a mere 1/7 of the conservative estimate of Grand Prix promos given out.
The main takeaway is that Snapcaster dodged the most damaging event to his price in the short-term when he dodged the Grand Prix promo bullet. We could be very certain about that once we know that he is next year’s RPTQ promo.
Predicted Impact of the RPTQ Promo on Snapcaster’s Price
Data on the the impact of an RPTQ promo reprint on the price of an eternal staple is scarce as the program has been going on for less than a year but we can glean a bit of information from the impact of being this year’s RPTQ promo on the price of Liliana of the Veil:
The announcement that Liliana will be the promo card for this year’s RPTQs came on October 11 last year, during Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir coverage. Lilliana’s price tanked by about 25% from $80 to $60 at the beginning of November, presumably in anticipation of the upcoming influx in supply. However, at mid-February this year, Liliana experienced a spike which saw her price shoot up to a record high of $90, and a year after the announcement of the Liliana RPTQ promo, Liliana is perched at $110, the highest she has ever been since her release in 2011.
Lilliana’s price trend was not surprising given that Liliana is a three-to-four-of staple in two popular Modern archetypes, Jund and Junk. Plus, every Modern PPTQ season sees our favorite necromancer growing one year older. Unless Jund and Junk were to fall out of favor (unlikely, given their track record of being a safe choice in whatever environment of the Modern metagame), Liliana’s price is not to go down until a mass reprint, which is also most likely in the next instalment of Modern Masters.
While Liliana of the Veil is one rarity tier higher than Snapcaster Mage, the amount of play Snapcaster sees in Modern is double than that of Liliana.
Most-played cards in Modern in 2015, from mtgtop8.com.
For comparison, while both Liliana and Snapcaster were present in an average of 3.3 copies in decks that run them, Liliana was only found in 12.7% of deck but Snapcaster was in a 27.7%. For every deck that ran Liliana of the Veil, there were slightly more than two decks running Snapcaster Mage. The same applies for Legacy, where Snapcaster Mage is found in slightly twice the number of decks compared with Liliana.
Most-played cards in Legacy in 2015, from mtgtop8.com.
On the other hand, being a mythic rare theoretically renders Liliana eight times rarer than Snapcaster in terms of supply. I am not sure how much does that offset against Snapcaster seeing twice the amount of play in both Modern and Legacy.Correction: Eric Duerr on Twitter shared a photograph of an uncut foil Innistrad sheet showing that the ratio of Snapcaster:Liliana is actually 2:1. Thanks Eric!
It is hard to quantify demand by archetypes in the each format. For all we know, Snapcaster decks could be more popular than Liliana decks in either format or vice versa. There are also a portion of eternal format players who seek to buy into the format rather than single decks.
I would argue that the demand-to-supply ratio of Snapcaster Mage is similar to that of Liliana. Which means the impact of the RPTQ reprint on Snapcaster’s price is going to be trifle and temporary, as with Liliana’s RPTQ reprint. Adding around 8,000 copies of the most ubiquitous creature in Modern is scarcely going to have a deep impact on the medium-term price of the card.
An RPTQ promo reprint is probably one of the reprint events that injects the lowest amount of supply into the market. I don’t have the figures for judge foil reprints, but I would rank judge foil reprints and RPTQ promo reprints to be of the same rarity in terms of new copies introduced into the market.
Snapcaster Mage’s price has been on a slow decline since peaking at $100 this summer and his buylist price has been on a steady slope downwards. Snapcaster lost $5 since the announcement, dropping from $69 to $64 but we have yet to see any dip in his buylist price. It’s interesting to note that Snapcaster’s buylist price dropped $10 within the first week of October. Were sellers anticipating a Snapcaster RPTQ promo announcement during the Pro Tour?
Unless the market reacts cautiously this time around, Snapcaster’s price is likely going to remain on a downtrend for the next few months mimicking Liliana’s trend after the announcement of her RPTQ promo. Regardless of the actual supply introduced by the reprint, there is a stigma attached to reprint victims. Either by early next year, spurred by a brief increase in Modern interest triggered by the Modern Pro Tour in February, or when the Modern PPTQ season swings around the corner come summer, Snapcaster’s price is going to trend up again.
Snap the Moment
Opportunities are abound for all parties when a quintessential Modern staple like Snapcaster Mage dips in price.
For the player:
If you are planning to compete in next year’s Modern PPTQ season, or if you are looking to complete your playset of Snapcaster, go get Snapcaster in a few weeks’ time. $64 is already a good price for Snapcaster, but it couldn’t hurt to wait and see if his price tanks any further. The next few weeks, or month or two, are likely to be the last Snapcaster price bottom until the summer of 2017, the most probable release period for the next instalment of Modern Masters. If you do not mind not having access to Snapcaster decks for the next year-and-a-half, you could always wait for Modern Masters 2017, but I am not sure that wait would be worth it. The first reprinting of previous Modern chase cards like Vendilion Clique and Cryptic Command in the summer of 2013 only depressed their price by $10 to $15 and by early 2014 their price hit a new high, regardless of the rarity in which they were reprinted in.
For the Financier:
First off, there’s the relief of knowing with a high degree of certainty that Snapcaster Mage is a safe hold until the next Modern season in summer 2016. We would likely see Snapcaster Mage hit extraordinary price again during that time. I don’t think it is far-fetched to expect Snapcaster to hit $100 one more time, especially during this weekend in May 2016:
With two of the largest retailers and tournament organisers running concurrent Modern Grand Prix in a single weekend, can you imagine the price of a Snapcaster Mage during that week? Mid-May 2016 would be the best time to reap the return on your Snapcaster Mage investment.
Another reason why I like the Snapcaster reprinted as an RPTQ promo is the fact that it further depresses the price of Snapcaster from the $69 he was at before, making Snapcaster an even more lucrative mid-term spec target. We can be certain that Snapcaster’s current price is lower than it should be, as with the majority of Modern staples in the fall when the limelight is shining on cards from the new block and the post-rotation Standard metagame.
If you have the funds, going in on Snapcaster at his current price of $64 is not too shabby, but I would definitely recommend waiting for a few weeks to see if his price tanks any further. But don’t wait for too long, the window might close soon if the market catches on the trend with Liliana’s price after her RPTQ promo reprint.
Besides the relative security of not seeing a short-term reprint, one of the appeal of this spec is the presence of a set date where you could liquidate your spec and reap your profit, an aspect most mid-term specs lack. I wouldn’t go in too deep though. While Snapcaster hit $100 briefly, the highest his buylist price went to was $60.
His brief stint at the triple-digit club was spurred by the one-month period this summer where there were three consecutive Modern Grand Prix, and the retailers knew that Snapcaster would unlikely sustain his price tag.
If you are buying into Snapcaster within this month or two to sell next May, your best bet on reaping optimal profit is liquidating your spec to players rather than buylisting them, which is why I wouldn’t recommend going in too deep.
TL;DR
Contrary to the usual impression of reprint events, the Snapcaster RPTQ promo reprint is likely to be a net positive for both players (duh) and financiers as it creates an opportunity for players and financiers to pick up Snapcasters at what is probably his final price bottom in the next year-and-a-half. Players lacking Snapcasters could assemble their playset in time for the next Modern season or next year’s Modern Grand Prix at a slightly cheaper price than without a RPTQ promo reprint. Financiers could rest well knowing that we are highly unlikely to see a mass Snapcaster Mage reprint until the next Modern Masters, which is likely to be in 2017, making it a safe bet to wait for the Modern PPTQ season next year to liquidate Snapcasters. Financiers interested in getting in on Snapcaster or bolstering their Snapcaster holdings for next summer could do so without the fear of being blinded sided by a surprise mass reprint.
This article turned out to be longer than expected, so thank you for sticking through to the end. Do share your thoughts in the comments section below, or catch me on Twitter at @theguoheng.
Many brewers entered the arena looking to put their stamp of originality on the newly minted Battle for Zendkar Standard, but in the end our Top 8 turned out more or less similarly to the one last weekend at the SCG Open in Atlanta.
Though the UB Aristocrats deck from Christian Calcano got many people excited and spiked Liliana, Heretical Healer from $14 to $25 overnight, our Top 8 is a powerhouse of legendary Magic pros and the decks that now firmly define this format:
Owen Turtenwald (Jeskai Black)
Ricky Chin (GW Megamorph)
Paulo Vita Damo Da Rosa (Atarka Red)
Martin Muller (Jeskai Tokens)
Takimura Kazuyuki (Abzan)
Jon Finkel (Jeskai Black)
Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai)
Paul Dean (Abzan)
Our ladder looks like this:
Ricky Chin (GW Megamorph) vs. Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai)
Paulo Vita Damo Da Rosa (Atarka Red) vs. Jon Finkel (Jeskai Black)
Martin Muller (Jeskai Tokens) vs. Takimura Kazuyuki (GW Megamorph)
Owen Turtenwald (Jeskai Black) vs. Paul Dean (Abzan)
With some relatively young players facing some of the biggest giants in the game in Finkel, PVD and Owen Turtenwald, I would expect Round 1 to yield winners in Tamada, Muller and Turtenwald, with the Finkel/PVD match being largely dependent on the PVD Atarka Red hand quality since Finkel can be relied on to play out his hand competently.
Almost regardless of which deck ultimately wins, the metagame is now definitively settled on Atarka Red, Jeskai/Dark Jeskai and G/W Megamorph as the Tier 1 decks to beat. This should lead to some modest price appreciation with the already inflated Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy and Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, as the two key non-land cards with over 20 copies in the Top 8. With fetchlands dominating all of the mana bases, it’s also likely that fetches will continue to appreciate through the season.
Welcome to a fantastic Top 8. Let’s see how it plays out:
Ricky Chin (GW Megamorph) vs. Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai)
In Game 1, Ryoichi Tamada puts Gideon, Jace and Silkwrap on the board and demonstrates how easy it is to dominate an opponent that is land poor when you are running the three best cards in the format in the same deck. Game 1 to Tamada.
In Game 2, Chin curves out perfectly with Warden of the First Tree into Hangarback Walker into Deathmist Raptor, but a missed block on an attacking Jace from Tamada sets up a board state with a flipped Jace and a paired Wingmate Roc that turns the game into a solid race. Tamada goes aggressive perhaps a turn too early in the face of a pair of Dromoka’s Command however, and Tamada finds himself tied up at a game a piece.
Game 3 starts out strong with Ricky Chin, but a Mantis Rider and a paired Wingmate Roc leads to a grindy match which ends up being won by Tamada on the back of a Silkwrap removing a massively powered up Warden. Tamada advances with Jeskai to the semis, putting Gideon, Jace and Mantis Rider squarely in the spotlight financially.
Paulo Vita Damo Da Rosa (Atarka Red) vs. Jon Finkel (Jeskai Black)
Here we have one of the best possible Top 8 matches between two Hall of Fame Magic players.
Game 1 demonstrates the occasional fragility of the Atarka Red build as PVD is forced to mulligan into a hand with minimal action, and Finkel easily removes a couple of threats before steamrolling into an early victory.
Game 2 finds PVD forced to mulligan yet again and Finkel puts another quick game away with two Mantis Rider and a total lack of combo action from his opponent. Johnny magic moves on to the semis with Jeskai Black.
Martin Muller (Jeskai Tokens) vs. Takimura Kazuyuki (Abzan)
Unable to find anything but lands to pair with his Jeskai Ascendancy, Muller is forced to chump block a few turns in a row with his early tokens, and falls to a combined attack by Siege Rhino, Anafenza and Den Protector in Game 1.
In Game 2 Muller fails to find synergy and a smart mulligan from Takimura into a more aggressive hand results in a quick win and a trip to the semis.
Owen Turtenwald (Jeskai Black) vs. Paul Dean (Abzan)
Paul Dean gets a chance here to seek revenge against Owen for trying to knock him out of Top 8 contention in the final round Saturday in favor of Reid Duke.
In Game 1 Owen loses his only threat in Mantis Rider and Dean is able to put things away with Gideon and friends in fairly straight forward fashion. In Game 2, Owen keeps a promising hand with two lands and is slowed down enough to be put away by on curve Wingmate Roc and friends, sealing revenge for fellow Canadian Paul Dean.
Our Top 4 decks are two Abzan builds and two Jeskai builds, marking our Tier 1 as a mix of last season and the new JeskaiX options.
Side note: Snapcaster Mage has been announced as the RPTQ Promo, with new art. I would expect this to delay strong gains on the cards until later this spring, and though this art is unlikely to be preferred, this does add thousands of copies to the market.
Semi-Finals
Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai) vs. Jon Finkel (Jeskai Black)
In Game 1 Finkel manages to get a flipped Jace, Sarkhan, Dragonspeaker, and Tasigur in play at the same time, and the game goes sideways for Tamada in a hurry. A flurry of Jeskai Charms from Tamada later however, leads to Finkel losing Tasigur to the top of his deck a few times, and a Gideon is able to take out Jace and put Finkel on his heels. Facing down a double Gideon emblem and multiple attackers Finkel finds a way out via a double helping of Mantis Rider to block, live and crack back for the final three. Game 1 Finkel.
In Game 2, back and forth plays lead to a critical Gideon attack alongside his allies, and Tamada takes back a win.
Game 3 sees Finkel lose after being penalized for a mid-game land coming in tapped, allowing Tamada to get in with Sarkhan, Dragonspeaker and put away the match.
Finals
Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai) vs. Takimura Kazuyuki (Abzan)
Well the dust has cleared and the only men left standing are from the land of the rising sun. It’s been a while since we’ve seen a Japanese dominated finals at the Pro Tour, but it’s far from a surprise given the quality of play from these two gentlemen this weekend.
Takimura takes Game 1 fairly easily and puts himself just 2 wins away from a Pro Tour title.
In Game 2 Tamada manages to flood the board with Gideo, Jace and a bevy of allied threats, but carefully chips away at Takimura until a mass attack on the back of Jeskai Charm utterly closes the game in his favor. Game 3 finds Tamada using Jeskai Charm and Disdainful stroke to deal with a 4/4 Walker once via bounce, followed by the counter on the way back to the board. This traps Takimura on four lands, and leaves him wide open for a two quick attacks. Tamada goes to two games.
In Game 4 however, Takimura rallies back, his life suddenly easier with Tamada stuck on one land after a couple of mulligans. Heading into Game 5 Takimura takes a daring mulligan, giving up a hand with one land and early threats to get a hand with guaranteed land support. The next hand had two lands, and he was lucky enough to find a third in time to trade key cards and leave his opponent looking for a top deck. One big attack later and Takimura is our Pro Tour: Battle for Zendikar champion!
In the end it is Abzan in the hands of Tamikura Kazuyuki that takes the tournament in stellar fashion, and we have Siege Rhino on the podium despite the appearance throughout the weekend that it would be the tournament for Jeskai Black and G/W Megamorph to dominate the Top 8.
In the wake of Kazuyuki’s win, we see Gideon driving up towards $40, with the potential to settle anywhere within $5 of that number as the week goes on. Likewise Jace, which was easily the card of the tournament, has regained some lost ground and is pushing $75-80 again after some aggressive buying today. Liliana, Heretical Healer seems to be holding her $23-25 range so far, but could fall back towards $15 since none of her decks made Top 8. All in all, very few cards from Battle for Zendikar other than Gideon and the “battle” lands have made much of an impact at the top tables. Despite a plethora of interesting brews, our expected archetypes are still in the driver’s seat. How the metagame reacts will be interesting as we push deeper into BFZ Standard in the coming weeks.
Also of note, Dromoka’s Command should hold $7-8 as an integral part of both of the viable GW decks in Abzan and GW Megamorph. Wingmate Roc seems like it will command $6-8 in coming weeks, representing a solid gain from the $3 summer lows.
Thanks for sticking with us this weekend! See you next time.
After 8 hard fought rounds on Friday, including three rounds of draft and five rounds of standard, a metagame clustered around the best established constructed archetypes of the last few weeks has emerged. Despite more than 20 distinct decks making up at least 1% of the metagame, a full 60% of the field can be said to be on a variation of G/W Megamorph, Atarka Red or Jeskai Splash. Esper Control and Abzan take up the 4th and 5th slots by metagame at the event.
If there is a financial story on the weekend so far, it’s that many of the formats’ dominant cards are likely to hold and gain some value coming out of the weekend. In particular, cards such as Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy and Den Protector all look likely to see plenty of play post this meta.
Over the last week, all of the following cards have put up 25%+ price spikes. A common theme here is undervalued rares from KTK block that are coming into their own in the new meta as they escape peak supply and find room to break out. Many of these cards are doing well enough thus far to hold position as card carrying members of the 3 top archetypes:
Crackling Doom (+200%): $1 to $3
Mantis Rider (+67%): $1.50 to $2.50
Dromoka’s Command (+60%): $5 to $8
Zurgo Bellstriker (+45%): $2.50 to $3.60
Dragonlord Ojutai (+40%): $20 to $28
Den Protector (+40%): $11 to $16
Ojutai’s Command (+33%): $3 to $4
Dragonmaster Outcast (+40%): $4 to $6
Anafenza, the Foremost (+25%): $6.50 to $8.25
After two more rounds of draft this morning, we now have the following players and decks within striking distance of a Top 8 berth and a date with destiny:
Christian Calcano on an innovative UB Aristocrats brew that pairs Liliana, Heretical Healer and Whirler Rogue with Nantuko Husk to great effect. Watch for Lilanna to pop if Calcano makes Top 8.
Eric Severson, our leader from Day 1 on Jeskai Black, with Jacob Wilson not far behind
Hall of Famer, Paulo Vitor Dama de Rosa cutting through the crowd with Atarka Red
Ryochi Tamada looking to make a mark with straight Jeskai
Reid Duke on Esper Control
Cards that are noticeable absent thus far at the top tables include Oblivion Sower and Ulamog, perhaps condemning ramp to Tier 2 status, at least until the release of Oath of the Gatewatch this winter.
Follow along with us as we stalk the final 5 rounds of Standard play before the cut to Top 8.
Round 12: (6th Round of Standard)
Patrick Chapin (Esper Control) vs. Shaun McClaren (Dark Jeskai)
Chapin takes Game 1 on the back of a pair of early Silkwrap, helping cement that card as one of the best kill spells in the format. Chapin’s build eschews dragons in favor of planeswalkers to close out the game. Both these players are on 8-2-1, looking to go at least 4-1 today in Standard to ensure a Top 8 berth. Efficient use of removal followed up by the power of Ob Nixilis, Gideon and Secure the Wastes puts McClaren away in Game 2, putting Chapin 3 wins away from the Top 8.
Paul Reitzl (Esper Control) vs Martin Juza (Esper Dragons)
This match provides insights into the future of control decks in Standard as we see the dragons take on the planeswalkers in a battle of long game stratgies. The players trade a game each, and end up in a strange final game, where both players on 8-3 are forced to accept a tie and bank on winning through to the Top 8.
Deck Tech: Blue/Black Aristocrats w/ Christian Calcano
Calcano calls out Liliana, Heretical Healer as the 2nd most important card in the deck after Nantuko Husk. The players on the deck are 4-2 and 5-1, which marks the deck for potential future success. Lilianna has already doubled this week on MTGO, so a strong Top 8 performance could possibly move the paper price from $15 up toward $20. A quick look at TCGPlayer shows copies under $17 already drying up.
Round 13: (7th Round of Standard)
Christian Calcano (UB Aristocrats) vs. Kazuyuki Takimura (Abzan)
Calcano takes a tight Game 1 after using Sidisi’s Faithful (!) to remove a key blocker and finish off Takimura. Calcano gets his opponent to 1 in Game 2, but can’t keep his synergies intact for the extra turn needed to put things away. A vicious Murderous Cut forces Calcano into a draw, and the Top 8 achievement is now in doubt for UB Aristocrats.
Jon Finkel (Jeskai Black) vs. Jon Stern (Atarka Red)
As we come in Stern is up a game but Finkel puts on a good show, using Radiant Flames and then recursive Lightning Bolts vis a vis Soulfire Grandmaster and Fiery Impulse to deal with successive waves of Goblins and manages to take the second game. Most players are at 10-3, so can’t afford the loss to be secure for Top 8.
Round 14: (8th Round of Standard)
Eric Severson (Jeskai Black) vs. Yuta Takahashi (Abzan)
Both players are on 10-3 and can earn a “win-and-in” with a win in this match. Takahashi wins the grind war to take Game 1. Brilliant sequencing by Takahashi in Game 2 takes the match and Abzan moves a big step closer to claiming at least one Top 8 spot.
Owen Turtenwald (Jeskai Black) vs. PVD (Atarka Red)
Owen defeats Pualo and ensures that both of these top tier players will make Top 8.
Round 15: (9th Round of Standard)
Jon Finkel (Jeskai Black) vs. PVD (Atarka Red)
This round brings us a match between titans and a possible foreshadowing for top 8 success. Facing down a horde of goblins both games, Johnny Magic makes his 15th Top 8!
Round 16: (10th Round of Standard)
Reid Duke (Esper Control) vs. Takimura (GW Megamorph)
Reid needs to win here, and possibly also have his friend Owen win his own match to give him his best chance at a Top 8 slot. After losing Game 1, Reid suffers when a Transgress the Mind exiles his Ugin, invalidating the power of Haven of the Spirit Dragon.
Owen Turtenwald (Jeskai Black) vs. Paul Dean (GW Megamorph)
Owen didn’t need to win this match to Top 8, but by “dream killing” Paul Dean he improves the odds that Reid makes Top 8. Owen wins his match and secures the top seed for Top 8.
Brandon Burton (Atarka Red) vs. Javier Dominguez (Atarka Red)
The winner of this match is set to likely take the 8th seed in the Top 8, ensuring at least one Atarka Red deck in contention. The games are tight, but some sweet tech in the form of Hooting Mandrills helps Dominguez take the match.
Yuta Takahashi (Abzan) vs. Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai)
Winner of this match puts a tri-color deck into the Top 8. Tamada takes it down to put Jeskai in contention.
Top 8 Decks
Despite a plethora of pretenders to the crown in the form of innovative new decks, our Top 8 turns out very much as expected with a mixture of Jeskai Black, Atarka Red and GW Megamoph, almost exactly the same as the results from the SCG Open in Atlanta last week, with a single Jeskai Tokens build to add some spice.
Owen Turtenwald (Jeskai Black)
Ricky Chin (GW Megamorph)
Paulo Vita Damp Da Rosa (Atarka Red)
Martin Muller (Jeskai Tokens)
Takimura (GW Megamorph)
Jon Finkel (Jeskai Black)
Ryoichi Tamada (Jeskai)
Paul Dean (Abzan)
With this Top 8, I’d be selling Liliana, Heretical Healer, Oblivion Sower and Drana, and trading into Jace and Gideon. Otherwise most of the key cards have already jumped.
Join us tomorrow for live Top 8 coverage!
MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY
ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive. 
