Category Archives: Uncategorized

Are Standard Mythics Still Good Short-Term Specs?

September 29, 2015 Guo Heng Chin 7 Comments

By Guo Heng

“Wizards is really trying to kill speculators huh?”

I woke up last Friday to this message a fellow mtgfinance enthusiast at my LGS . The Battle for Zendikar Event Deck’s list was announced on Thursday 8 a.m. PST (which is around 11 p.m. Malaysian time on Thursday). As I glanced through the decklist, I had a sinking feeling in my stomach. And I was sure as hell it wasn’t because I have yet to ingest my compulsary dose of morning caffeine.

If you have yet to see the decklist, check out Corbin’s (@chosler88) post about the Event Deck for his thoughts on the impact of the reprints.

Here are the notable cards that you’ll be able to find in the value-fest that is the Battle for Zendikar Event Deck:

What!? Since when do Wizards chuck in mythics in Event Decks. Two mythics!?

I was dismayed to see Whisperwood Elemental included in the decklist. I was bullish on Whisperwood Elemental as a mythic with an incredible potential for price growth in the new Standard landscape we are hurtling towards this October. Whisperwood has the making of a breakout card in financial terms. It’s a Standard staple with a track record in aggro and midrange decks. It’s a mythic from a small set. And it was hovering around $6 – $7 for the previous few months, probably as low as a small set Standard staple mythic could go. Whisperwood Elemental could spike to the $15 – $20 range if it becomes the premier green five drop in the Battle for Zendikar Standard, an outcome which I am quite confident about considering Whisperwood’s power level and the new unconditional creature removal being sorcery speed.

It all changed when ~~the Fire Nation attacked~~ Wizards decided that they are going to reprint mythics in Standard supplemental products. Whisperwood is now $5 and I doubt it would be able to hit even $15 anymore. While the influx in supply from the Event Deck is marginal, it does affect the perception regarding the financial potential of the Elemental. I also pity the fool who went in deep on Warden of the First Tree.

The most recent supplementary product designed for Standard, the Magic Origins Clash Pack, packed a little more value than usual with Standard and Modern staples like Windswept Heath, Collected Company and Siege Rhino, and Standard and Modern playables like Dromoka’s Command and Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit. But it was not too much of a surprise as high value rares like Hero’s Downfall and Thragtusk had seen reprint in these products. The inclusion of a fetchland was also not novel. Verdant Catacombs was in the Magic 2012 Event Deck.

Why Spec on Standard Mythics?

In the era where rare is the new uncommon, playable but homeless Standard mythics makes for better short-term spec targets compared to rare as mythics offer a significantly better multiplier at only a slightly increased cost.

Take Perilous Vault for example. The Magic 2015 mythic dropped all the way to $3 in September 2014, right before Khans of Tarkir rotated in. The colorless nuke found a home when Blue-Black Control made its debut at Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir in October and subsequently tripled in price to $10. It’s not a majestic spike, but 300% growth within a month or two is decent return for a $3 investment.

Sometimes you don’t even need to wait for rotation to happen, as with the case of See the Unwritten, a card which fellow MTGPrice writer, James Chillcott (@MTGCritic) and I have been bullish about. It recently spike from $3 to $8 (about time!) on the anticipation that it would be used to cheat in Eldrazi et al.

Now that Wizards is encroaching into mythic territory for cards deemed fit to be reprinted in Event Deck/Clash Pack products (they alternate each product between sets), the notion that playable Standard mythics at rock bottom are relatively low risk short-term specs no longer hold true. With mythics are no longer immune to an Event Deck/Clash Pack reprint, buying into future Perilous Vaults and See the Unwritten just got a lot riskier.

Walking the Speculation Planes

Ultimately Wizards’ priority is to ensure that competitive staples are sufficiently accessible to keep the competitive scene as inclusive as possible (plus it sells products). As a competitive player, I do welcome that move as it means that I would be able to secure my playset of Hangarback Walker at a reasonable price after missing the boat on that one.

As a financier, Wizards’ increasingly trigger happy inclination to reprint and repress price of staples forces me to reconsider my approach to short-term Standard mythic specs.

The risk with Event Decks/Clash Packs reprints resides in the fact that it is hard to predict when, or rather which Event Deck/Clash Pack would reprint which mythic. There is a class of Standard mythics that follow a more predictable reprinting.

Standard planeswalkers reprints are reserved for the spring Duel Deck, which means that they still make relatively safe short-term/rotation spec. Playable planeswalkers at rock bottom often spike come rotation, along the lines of Xenagos, the Reveler and Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver during the previous rotation.

The announcement for next spring’s Duel Deck comes late October or early November, so make sure you cash out of any short-term. planeswalker spec by then.

Siege Rhino is still in Standard and who better to accompany a crash of rhinos than Sorin, Solem Visitor, who is just $8 now. Now that Stormbreath Dragon is a myth of Standard past, it may be time for Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker to soar the skies for good as the premier sticky red five drop. Oh also, did I mentioned that now your opponent can’t kill your Sarkhan with his Form of the Dragon on the stack?

The Upside

Wizards’ increasingly trigger happy reprint policy is not all doom-and-gloom for financiers. Even if you do not grind Standard, there is a positive note to the phenomenon. Granted, the biggest casualty is the increased risk in short-term speculation. The other side of the coin is that Wizards’ aggressive reprint of high value Standard rares in their Event Decks/Clash Packs widens the window in which you could pick them up for long-term spec.

A good number of expensive Standard rares in recent times were expensive because they found a home in Modern. Collected Company hit double digits (and hovered near $20 briefly) but Den Protector did not because Collected Company spawned new archetypes in Modern and made Elves tier one while Den Protector is strictly worse than Eternal Witness in Modern. Tasigur barely sees Standard play but the amount of eternal play he sees made him the most expensive rare in Fate Reforged. And I don’t think many would complain about Windswept Heath dropping back to $12 after the Khans of Tarkir fetches trended upwards during the summer. You can bet that Tasigur, Collected Company and Windswept Heath will appreciate at a decent rate in the following years as Modern staples.

These Event Deck/Clash Pack reprints creates another window, or extends the current window to pick up these cards as long-term investments. For financiers without a huge budget, or those who have to split their budget between specs and maintaining a competitive Standard card pool, this is likely to be welcome news. Personally, I could never pick up all the specs I have on my specs list for the month as I grind the competitive scene as well and I can’t just sink 90% of my Magic budget into a truckload of Tasigur when he bottomed at $6. Tasigur dropped from $8.50 to $6.50 after last week’s announcement, giving me another window to pick him up at rock bottom amid securing Battle for Zendikar staples.

Do share your thoughts in the comments section below, or catch me on Twitter at @theguoheng.

Uncategorized

Grinder Finance – The Battle for Zendikar Foils

September 28, 2015 Jim Casale 5 Comments

While there are not a lot of opportunities are this point to make or save money by purchasing cards from Battle for Zendikar, there are interesting foil trends and a lot of commons and uncommons that should be on your radar.

Pre-release promos

With so many possible promotional cards, it’s hard to pin down exactly how much some of these cards will cost. Right now the price of a pre-release foil is equivalent to a pack foil pre-order. I’d wager to guess that won’t stay true forever. In most cases the pre-release foil will fall under the price of a pack foil so it’s probably a good time to trade them away. In most cases where they don’t, they are usually still the same price. The easiest ones to trade away will be the planeswalker and legendary creatures but it’s not impossible to trade away some bulk promos like Aligned Hedron Network ( I traded mine on Pucatrade). Now is also the best time to move foils with premiums like Planeswalkers. I’d be especially keen to trade away walkers that cost more than 3 because they likely won’t see any eternal play. Gideon’s current price tag won’t last forever.

The Diamonds in the Rough

Does your lgs have a bulk foil box? Need a throw in to make up a few dollars in trades? Here are a few of my favorite commons from the set I like in foil.

This is Dispel’s third printing (all of which had a foil) but this is the first really standout art. I expect this Jace art Dispel to carry a premium for Modern players for years to come.

This is a weird effect, it’s probably good enough for most green Commander decks, though there is always a possibility it can be abused later since its effect costs “no mana.” I don’t expect to have a hard time trading any of these that I pick up.

This card might look like a poor man’s Volrath’s Stronghold, and it is, but mono black Commander decks are some of the most popular mono-colored decks. I’d expect it to easy replace in a Swamp in those decks and be a value land in many others. Many black decks already play Expedition Map to search up Urborg or Cabal Coffers.

This card has probably the best long term common from the set. I can’t imagine a way they can reprint a colorless spell outside of Zendikar. This card looks a lot like Unstable Obelisk.

The key differences are that exile is a much better answer than destroy and there is a surprise factor that comes with Scour from Existence. I expect at the very least, if you’re going to play an Unstable Obelisk you will also play a Scour from Existence.

What uncommons are worth picking?

This card, and all of the retreats really, are pretty easy slam dunks. While Retreat to Coralhelm has already been sneaking into Modern decks, I can’t imagine any of them not being played at some time. Commander players really like playing their 11th, 12th, or 16th land so they will likely want to get value from them.

Foil Sowing Salts are $8-10 each. This card does the same thing while being easier to cast. I can’t imagine it doesn’t eventually eclipse Sowing Salt as the land destruction of choice in Modern.

Sylvan Scrying is such an important role player in Modern but I can’t imagine it will see much Standard play. There will be a time when these foils end up super cheap and you will love picking them up and holding them for a Modern season spike. All it takes is one high profile finish to spike role player cards.

This card has a very unique effect. I expect we will see more colorless creatures in the next set that will make this better. Right now it’s not embarrassing to play but we really need some more 4-5 power Eldrazi to make it shine.

All of the Blighted lands are pretty decent pickups. The white one is probably the worst and the green one is the best. They are likely to keep some sort of Commander playability.

Foil Mindstones can be found for $5-8 with two printings. I expect this is the sweet spot between a Mind Stone and a Dreamstone Hedron which should make it pretty popular. It shouldn’t be hard to get these easily in trades.

Cards that reduce the mana cost of spells are always a corner case for broken things to happen. I don’t know if this guy is better than Goblin Electromancer but he could follow a similar trajectory and could break out even more if he becomes a force in some weird deck in Vintage (where you are more likely to be able to abuse this ability). At the very least he will be an important part of red and blue Commander decks with artifact sub-themes. Given Wizard’s recent history pushing that theme in those colors I would not expect this to stay bulk.

Final Thoughts:

Expeditions look like they might be a little more common than people thought. The market for them doesn’t seem to be there to sustain prices. With the limited supply from the pre-release prices are already racing to the bottom. If you have one you don’t need, I would try to trade it or sell it.
That being said, the expedition supply is all anecdotal at this point. Without a large retailer opening hundreds of cases of product it’s hard to know how often they appear.
The price of battle lands will likely drop quickly. Many decklists I have seen will not be playing 4 copies of any of them. Even 5 color decks likely won’t play more than 2 of any of them.
Khans Fetchland prices will probably peak next February or June. If you have extra ones I would choose one of those months to move them.
There is so much bad press on Sensei’s Divining Top. It survived the last Legacy ban list but got banned in the rarely played Duel Commander. This card will likely never get reprinted but I can’t imagine it surviving all formats forever. It promotes so many bad game play patterns. I would look to move mine before I get caught with my pants down.
Hardened Scales is almost $2 more than Siege Rhino. I don’t really understand why but I would likely not want to play any deck in Standard without Dromoka’s Command.

James Chillcott, Uncategorized, What We're Buying

MTGFinance: What We’re Buying & Selling This Week (Sep9/15)

September 9, 2015 James Chillcott 7 Comments

By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

One of the most common misconceptions about folks involved in MTGFinance is that we are constantly manipulating the market and feeding players misinformation to help fuel achievement of our personal goals.

It has occurred to us at MTGPrice that though we dole out a good deal of advice, most of you ultimately have very little insight into when and why our writing team actually puts our money where our collective mouths are pointing. As such running this weekly series breaking down what we’ve been buying and selling each week and why. These lists are meant to be both complete and transparent, leaving off only cards we bought for personal use without hope of profit. We’ll also try to provide some insight into our thinking behind the specs, and whether we are aiming for a short (<1 month), mid (1-12 month), or long (1 year+) term flip. Here’s what we we’ve been up to this week:

Buying Period: Sep 1st – 7th, 2015

Note: All cards NM unless otherwise noted. All sell prices are net of fees unless noted.

James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

BOUGHT

3x Monastery Mentor @ $13

SOLD

28x See the Unwritten @ $7.50/per (Cost: $3/per)

Monastery Mentor is a Legacy and Vintage playable card with an absurd power level that hasn’t quite found it’s deck in Modern. Once it does, I fully expect the card to top $30 as a small set mythic that was supplanted by Dragons of Tarkir on shelves only 6 weeks after it debuted. I’ll be acquiring more copies under $16 accordingly.

See the Unwritten was already seeing play in versions of Green/Red dragons in Standard when it spiked off late summer Battle for Zendikar Eldrazi hype. I’ve been selling through a variety of channels, and the price has been sliding but I’m still coming out up over $10/set on average, with additional upside on my remaining 20+ copies if the card finds a deck in the new standard or an obvious search target appears.

Douglas Johnson (@roseofthorns)

BOUGHT (Pucatrade)

15x Spawnsire of Ulamog via Pucatrade at 329 points each

SOLD

3x Shaman of Forgotten Ways at $6/per

Douglas says:

“At only $3, I really like Spawnsire of Ulamog as a pickup. It has dodged being reprinted so far, it makes a lot of mana dorks, and the last activated ability is perfect for both Timmys and Johnnys to get excited about. The annihilator 1 is pretty irrelevant, but who cares? We’re casting every Eldrazi ever. Spawnsire gets a whole lot of new tools with this set, and I don’t think he needs to see competitive or EDH play to get up to $6 or $7 on casual demand alone. SCG is out of stock on NM copies at the moment, but has plenty of SP/MP. eBay is practically dried up of non-foil copies, and there are still quite a few on TCGplayer. Maybe this doesn’t pick up until casual players start cracking packs and building decks, but this is a card I’m very bullish on. You don’t see me pick out spec targets very often, but this is one of them.”

So there you have it. Now what were you guys buying and selling this week and why?

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Jason Alt, ProTrader, Uncategorized

PROTRADER: Boating Expedition – A Course Correction

September 9, 2015 Jason Alt 4 Comments

I had hoped Battle for Zendikar spoilers would give me a clear signal this week. We got a lot of cool cards spoiled, but nothing really sticks out, and I think we need to avoid a repeat of last week. I used a card I’m not excited about reanimating to frame a discussion about reanimation cards, which felt forced to me and resulted in an article a lot of you weren’t super happy with the entire way through. I mean, granted, there were good points about cards like Debtors’ Knell, but in general, you’re not reanimating fatties in EDH as much as you are cycling value creatures. You don’t want a full yard, begging to get Bojuka Bogged or Tormod’s Crypted. You want to keep bringing back Karmic Guide and Eternal Witness like a cheater. I didn’t like writing or reading the comments on my last article.

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